Great Lakes Water Tension in the 21st Century

Great Lakes Commission Ann Arbor, May 22, 2019

Peter Annin Director, Mary Griggs Burke Center for Freshwater Innovation Author, The Great Lakes Water Wars Thesis

• The , continent & world are entering a period of increased water tension

• These tensions are primarily driven by water scarcity

• There will be increased pressure on water-rich areas like the Great Lakes

• The region created a modern, binding world-class water management system to protect this internationally significant resource as we enter an era of global water insecurity Photo By RJ & Linda Miller Compact’s 10th Anniversary

• That new water management paradigm is the Great Lakes Compact. • What lessons have been learned during the first 10 years? World Water Woes

“Extremely High” water stress in red.

• Only 1% of earth’s surface water is accessible & drinkable freshwater • 800 million lack access to clean drinking water today • 2 million die annually from unhealthy water conditions • Global water demand will surge 55% by 2050 • Two thirds of the global population will be “water stressed” by 2025 Sources: The World Resources Institute and The Coca-Cola Company National Geographic, University of Aquatic Science Center, Peter Gleick, United Nations The Aral Experiment

Randy Yeip, Knight Center for Env. Journalism

• The Aral was once the 4th largest inland water body in the world

• Starting in 1960, its freshwater feeder streams were diverted for agriculture to make the desert bloom Anti-diversion Poster Child

• The desert bloomed, but at great cost to the Aral’s ecosystem. • At this spot, water was once 45 feet deep. Today the Aral has receded beyond the horizon in all directions. • Aral’s demise shows large lakes are vulnerable Aral Sea 1964-2014 Volume: -96% Surface Area: -90%

1964 1977 1987

1998 2007 2014

Photos courtesy of the US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Potential Water Supply Crises by 2025 Areas where existing supplies are not adequate to meet water demands for people, for farms, and for the environment.

Water Supply Issue Areas

Unmet Rural Water Needs

Moderate Conflict Potential Substantial Conflict Potential Highly Likely Conflict Potential

Adapted from U.S. Department of the Interior Continental Water Tension

• Klamath River Basin • California year-round fire season • Colorado River oversubscribed • Rio Grande friction • Ogallala Aquifer • Apalachicola River Basin • Potomac River • Ipswich River near Boston Early 1960s

Great Lakes Basin

• Holds ~20% of global fresh surface water • Enough volume to cover the lower 48 states in 9.5 feet of water • But only 1% of the ’s water is renewable • Great Lakes nourish 35 million in U.S. & Canada as well as billions of creatures in a unique, fragile, cold- water ecosystem • The regional economy is world’s 3rd largest ($5.8 trillion) and much, though not all, of that economy is water-dependent

U.S. EPA, IJC, Bank of Montreal Great Lakes Diversions 8 Inter-Basin, 6 Intra-Basin since 1825

Adapted from International Joint Commission Diversion at Chicago (1900) Chicago diversion canal

Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago

• Max capacity 6.5 billion gallons per day • Most litigated and controversial diversion • Longest running active file in the Michigan AG’s office Chicago Diversion (1900)

Robert Cameron’s “Above Chicago”

• 2.1 billion gallons per day, set by U.S. Supreme • Lowered Lakes Michigan & Huron by 2.5 inches The Nova Group (1998)

• Plan to ship 158 million gallons/year • Could not be stopped by anti- diversion laws in the U.S. or Canada • Concern about international precedent • Highly controversial proposal • Nova raised serious questions about adequacy of Great Lakes water laws Nova Leads to Compact

• Adopted by all 8 Great Lakes states and Congress in 3 yrs. • President signed Oct. 3, 2008 • adopted companion agreement in 2007 • Quebec followed in 2009 • Remarkable bipartisan agreement • Global model for international trans-boundary water management Compact’s Key Points

• Ban on diversions • Limited exceptions: • “Straddling communities” • “Straddling counties” • No one else can even request a diversion

Straddling community

Straddling “Straddling” Requirements

• Must return water after use • Water conservation plan • No reasonable water supply alternatives • No adverse environmental impacts Waukesha: Compact’s First Major Test

• First “Straddling County” application in 2010 • Waukesha is just beyond Basin line • Depleted & contaminated groundwater (radium) • State/federal pressure to improve water supply • Very controversial diversion • 11,000 comments, mostly opposed Regional Review

Waukesha Diversion Area • Key hurdle: Applicants need the approval of all eight Great Lakes governors • Waukesha applied for 10.1 mgd in May 2010 • +5-yr DNR technical review • Then 6-month regional review by Great Lakes governors Historic Vote June 21, 2016

• Unanimous approval by Govs. • BUT, service area cut by +50% • Diversion cut from 10.1 mgd to 8.2 mgd • 100% of water to be returned

• Does not set precedent for long-range diversions • G.L. mayors’ appeal of decision denied. Debate continues Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

• Facility size of three Pentagons • Up to 13,000 employees in Mount Pleasant, WI • +$3 billion in state incentives • Problem: Location straddles the Great Lakes Basin line • Must divert water from Racine Foxconn 2018

Foxconn architectural model. Mount Pleasant, Wis. Summer, 2018. Foxconn Site Straddles Great Lakes Basin Line Racine Applied on Behalf of Foxconn • Mount Pleasant needed to apply on Foxconn’s behalf • But Mt. Pleasant gets its water from Racine. • So Racine filed straddling community app Jan. 2018 • 7 million gallons per day • DNR approved in April, 2018 • MEA legal challenge filed in May, is still pending Racine to Foxconn Diversion Foxconn’s Key Compact Issue

• Compact says diversions must be for “Public Water Supply Purposes”

• “Serving a group of largely residential customers that may also serve industrial, commercial and other institutional operators” • Is the Racine/Foxconn app “largely residential?” Compact Authors Disagree on That Question • Some Compact authors say “residential” “public water supply” refers to the community delivering the water (Racine) • Other Compact authors say it refers to the community receiving the water (Mt. Pleasant) • Crucial legal difference in those interpretations Next: Book Exclusive— The “Pleasant Prairie Surprise” • Village received 3.2 mgd in 1989—pre-Compact • After the Compact’s adoption, states were required to report baseline for pre-existing diversions • In 2010 Wis. quietly increased village amount to 10.69 mgd when reporting baseline. Boost of 7.49 mgd • No public notification Pleasant Prairie in Context

• Larger than Racine/Foxconn’s 7.0 mgd • Almost as much as Waukesha’s 8.2 mgd • Village of ~21,000 people v. Waukesha’s 70,000 • Enough surplus water to host Foxconn w/o needing to apply for a diversion

Pleasant Prairie Why Was Diversion Tripled?

• Wis. statute requires that water supply plumbing matches up with sewer plumbing • Pl. Prairie has expansive sewer system • In order to match sewer footprint, water diversion max was boosted from 3.2 mgd to 10.69 mgd • Paperwork filed with CGLG, but no announcement Pleasant Prairie Response

“We’ve come under scrutiny because of this book and as a part of the book they’re trying to promote their sales so they have to make some things, that are not that dramatic, somewhat dramatic,” Village Administrator Nathan Thiel said. “I think it’s much to do about nothing.”

- Kenosha News, Sept. 20, 2018 Much Ado About Nothing?

• Front page of the Chicago Tribune • Front page of Milwaukee Journal Sentinel • Story ran coast-to-coast via Associated Press • Enviros are consulting attorneys • Michigan Governor’s Chicago Tribune Sept. 19, 2018 office is investigating Pl. Prairie Quietly Became State’s Largest Diversion Great Lakes Water War Frontline

• S.E. Wis. has more diversion hotspots than all other states combined • Chicago is the largest and most litigated diversion • All are in the Chicago / Milwaukee Megacity • The Chicago/Milwaukee Megacity is the frontline in the Great Lakes Water War 10th Anniv. Take-Home Points

• Overall the Compact is working as expected. • The few bumps we’ve seen are not unusual • The lakes have never been better protected from long- range, large-scale water diversions. • Unsustainable water practices elsewhere will prompt parched areas to continue eying the Lakes with envy. • So the region needs to remain vigilant to ensure precedents aren’t set that are regretted later. • S.E. Wisconsin is the new water diversion frontline • More return-flow diversions are inevitable. That’s an anticipated part of the process • Who’s next? We’ll see.

Photo by RJ & Linda Miller Great Lakes & Climate Change

Low water, Honey Harbor, ON, Lake Huron 2012

Photo by Terri Hodgson Climate Change v. Nat. Variability

2006 1986

USGS Hammond Bay Biological Station, Lake Huron • Most of the lakes have natural variability of +6 feet • The Great Lakes ecosystem thrives on this natural variability • But research now suggests we’re entering an era of water level extremes, breaking numerous records in the process • Higher highs, lower lows, longer lows and more rapid rises • Yet the overall average water level may not change much

Going to Extremes

• 1985-86 Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie struggled with record highs • 1998-99 Michigan-Huron plunged 3’ in 1 yr • Those lakes had never fallen so far, so fast • That drop sent all lakes into record-long low water from 1999-2014 • 2013 Michigan-Huron set all-time record low Going to Extremes

• Then in 2013-2014 Superior saw an unprecedented rise. Never risen so far, so fast. • During that same time, Michigan-Huron saw 2nd fastest rebound on record • Then, in 2017, Ontario saw fastest increase ever, ~4 feet increase in six months • Result: Ontario broke 2017 high-water record • Basin-wide, between 1980-2017, 40 monthly water level records were also broken New Era of Volatility?

“What it means for the Great Lakes is that we need to be prepared for extremes. Whether it is extreme weather patterns, whether it’s extreme water levels, whether it’s extreme droughts and storms … we just need to be prepared for extremes.” -Wendy Leger, co-chair, IJC’s Great Lakes St. Lawrence Adaptive Management Committee Mary Griggs Burke Center for Freshwater Innovation Northland College Ashland, Wis.