IRELAND 2040 OUR PLAN
National Planning Framework
Anna McKenna 78 George’s Street Drogheda
Submitted on behalf of
Drogheda City Status Group
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s
This submission is presented by s a body of concerned citizens who, six years ago, set about achieving recognition of Drogheda as a City and National Growth Centre.
ss s is as follows:
“To s s s s s ss s s s s s region.”
Drogheda City Status preliminary study came to the conclusion that Drogheda’s problems stemmed from the lack of understanding and appreciation by policy makers of the importance and potential of the town and region. It became clear to us that policy makers in Dublin shared this flawed view of the Drogheda region and its proper status.
2 | Page Drogheda re a d’s arges o or er a o s o r gh has ee a e re o or a e or ards o ears has ee a or ora e oro gh h s o a or der a a d rgesses or a ha e re e o a o er e re or ro d s a ed o Ireland’s os h s or r er a d a e a o he o e a e s or has ee a e e h ro e a d he res o he or d Drogheda has a e os o he or h o h D e as orr dor h e e o a ra s or ras r re e a ra a e D o e as o or a a d he ro o D a r or a d read a ess o D or a he or e
he Drogheda h er a d o r es o s or a e a d a ra e ess h he oas a o es o or g o e s o a d a o so h o he o e a d a ra er o e a d ogherhead or h o he r er s s rro ded he grea er e a ds o o es o h a d ea h a d he ea o e a e o he es s a so he a or so a o er a a d e o o e re or a r g o gro g o s a d ages s h er a d e a e Do ore a s o or a s o Do a ar e D ee a e o o o as er o e a e D eer a d re
he a a g h s or o Drogheda a d he o e a e o h re a d os hr s a se s a ar s e ar haeo og a a d h s or reas res a d h e or o s o r s o e a
he o has a grea o g d s r a rad o a d ed he o r aga he gro h o e d s r he 1930’s ’s ’s ’s a d 1970’s. h e so e o he d s r es ha e osed here s a gro g a re a o d s r a s s o Drogheda’s a ra o s a d re e es a er o e r s ha e o e ed e as oas a eho se oa D s er a d re er a d a es ree
he a es o hese r s o se s o e e h o og es ho s es a sh g a ro ea ead ar ers o a Drogheda e o g or ers ea g a he a o e e s er or o s er r se a d o a o ar he O’Connor D sa d
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“This is a grea announ e en b obi e Te hno ogies n . bringing high s i ed obs o Drogheda. Dri ing in es en in o egiona o a ions is a e o us or e. This in es en i be o onsiderab e bene i o Drogheda and he order egion ro iding a signi i an boos o e o en and bene i ing he e ono o he o n and region.”
C O o ID Ireland ar n hanahan sa d “ he high ua i obs rea ed b he o an i ha e a osi i e no on e e on he ider region and i ro o e Drogheda as an idea o a ion or ondu ing in erna iona business.”
s a r her e a le e o e hael Care anag ng D re or o as oas a eho se as ollo s “Drogheda as se e ed or his ne business or a nu ber o reasons
a. Drogheda has ne or o high su ess u ood and drin businesses. u h a ne or has ro ided rea and eaning u su or during he ear s ages o he es ab ish en o he business ro iding ad i e in rodu ions and o her su or .
b. The road ne or around Drogheda is uni ue. hi e an o he e o ees a as oas a ehouse are o a so e ra e ro o her o ns. Tra e o and ro he a ehouse is er eas . i i ar rans or a ion o ingredien s and de i er o inished rodu o our rish re ai us o ers or o he or s is high e i ien .
. ai abi i o s i ed e o ees in Drogheda is e e en . hen i as announ ed ha he ini ia grou o a ehouse rodu ion s a ere o be se e ed e re ei ed o er a i a ions in us a ou e o ee s. an o he a i an s ere a read in e o en bu ere in eres ed in being ar o his s ar u gi en i s o a ion a oiding a ong o u e .
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d. ai abi i o sui ab e re ises. hen onsidering o a ions a e re uire en as o ind an indus ria bui ding o he righ si e and sha e. nu ber o a ai ab e sui ab e bui dings ere iden i ied in Drogheda.”
grea gro h u ure
a iona Ireland’s
Group’s
“That the members of Drogheda Borough Council from this day forward give their consent and approval to the people of Drogheda referring to Drogheda as the City of Drogheda”.
“Ireland Plan” Government’s “ TT T T”
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re a d e n ster mon ovene as produ ed a ra t Plan nv t n a ne plann n rame or or Ireland or t e ne t ears
s ra t Plan a no led es t at “the e tra populat on and omes ll appen n t e ast Coast” and urt er t at “this ll present ma or allen es around lop s ded development under used potent al on est on and adverse mpa ts on people’s l ves and t e env ronment”
I t s populat on n rease s oreseen or t e astern e on and mpl at on s undes ra l to e lo ated ent rel n u l n e su m t t at a v rant and lour s n t o ro eda ar t e est to n n t e ountr at present s ould e an o o a or o r or to t e solut on o t e undes ra le allen es dent ed t e Minister’s plan s s part ularl t e ase as ro eda to n and nterland s e per en n e ponent al ro t s m rrored n t e ro t e plos on o t e surround n v lla es and to ns
a or ro t as een s o n to e o used on t es and t s stren t ens Drogheda’s ase or t tatus and Gro t entre or a separate re on rom u l n
e su m t t at ro eda as un ue advanta es or ro t and n t e at onal and e onal nterest t s ould e dent ed n t e ne plan as a ma or ro t entre t t tatus u stant al ro t as een s o n to e o used on re ons av n a t as t ere entre
e set out ere under our v s on and our reasons t s opportun t s ould e rasped and s ar e resour es nvested n ro eda e on ll prove to e mone ell spent and reate a d nam and attra t ve re onal t o used on t e out eat re on elp n nter al a to solve u lin’s pro lems and e plo t n all Drogheda’s advanta es n t e a o a ere
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ra r re a d a e
hen onsidering areas s ita le or the reation o s staina le omm nities onsideration m st e gi en to the le el o in rastr t re e isting and that re ired to e pro ided rom the p li p rse in the p rs it o that poli n this respe t Drogheda and distri t o ld ha e a onsidera le ad antage ahead o man other enters he in rastr t re pro ision in Drogheda has een ahead o its time despite the la o re ognition pro ided the per io s plan his le el o e isting pro ision pro ides an e ellent asis to start ith the in ill in rastr t re re ired or the de elopment o a s staina le gro th enter hi h ill not ompete ith D lin t ill r n in parallel and in doing so red e the press re on the apital allo ing oth enters to de elop to their ll potential hen onsidering Drogheda and the elements hi h ha e pro en a strong dra or residential omm nities in the past de ade e ha e to e a are o oth the nat ral o rring in rastr t re and the in rastr t re hi h has de eloped as a res lt o pri ate or p li in estment
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he nat ral o rring in rastr t re in the region e ists in a ndan e and pro ides a a drop to the alit o li e a orded to residential omm nities in the area hese elements in l de the ealth o heritage a orded Drogheda’s position as gate a to the o ne alle in l ding treas res s h as e grange ld ridge and the attle o the o ne site all ithin al ing distan e or the to n enter ithin the to n enter e also ha e the Millmo nt omple one o the orlds inest Martello o ers and Laurence’s ate one o the est e amples o a ar i an ate em edded in remaining se tions o the an ient to n all to mention t a e e also ha e the ma esti o ne i er and the asso iated lora a na and the e tensi e ea hes o a to n ett sto n Mornington altra and Cogherhead t o ld e impossi le to p t a monetar al e on these assets t o an e ass red that the ost to repli ate them in an alternati e lo ation o ld e prohi iti e to the e tent that it o ld e onsidered impossi le rther element o a nat rall o rring asset is Drogheda’s pro imit to Ireland’s Capital D lin o ated m orth o D lin Cit Centre Drogheda is s i ientl lose to the apital ith signi i ant transportation lin s to allo Drogheda residents en o the lt ral and ommer ial a ti ities ithin the apital itho t the ost and di i lties asso iated ith li ing in the it he de eloped in rastr t re in Drogheda and the region is no less impressi e and rea s do n into the spheres o ransportation Data Conne ti it ealth are d ation and p li tilities n the area o transportation Drogheda oasts it’s o n ommer ial sea port pro iding a ess to all international ports and handling in e ess o million tonnes o prod t ann all Drogheda’s train station is on the D lin el ast line and is a high speed rail line hi h rrentl pro ides trains ea h a ea h da et een D lin and el ast ith some o rne times do n to Min tes he apa it o this line is onl limited the apa it o the D se tion et een o th n tion and Connoll tation this D limitation o ld e remo ed i re ired an ad stment o headroom lengths to international norms Drogheda li e man other enters is ell ser ed motor a in rastr t re ith onsidera le retained apa it d e to re ent e pansions rom issenhall to the M ho e er nli e other enters o r M motor a in rastr t re not onl lin s Drogheda to the M and D lin ithin min tes t also lin s Drogheda dire tl to el ast relands se ond largest it onl min tes a a Drogheda also ene its rom ha ing
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dedicated intersections o the otor a unction to unction ro iding e icient access to the northeast north est est central and south Drogheda ro a l the ost a ealing as ect o Drogheda’s in rastructure is the a aila ilit o an international air ort located ust inutes to the south again an centers ill indicate si ilar ro i it to air orts ho e er or the consideration o the de elo ent o an international usiness it is not ust the air ort ut the a aila ilit o direct lights to their arent cit Du lin ir ort on Drogheda’s doorste oasts direct lights to destinations in ountries on ontinents and usinesses located in Drogheda ha e easier assess to those lights than an other co ara le center en Du lin cit due to it’s tra ic congestion cannot oast such ease to international connecti it In the current odern usiness orld secure ast data connecti it is essential and in this res ect hilst other centers are catching u Drogheda is leading the ield in relation to data connecti it ith in e cess o i er connections currentl a aila le to the usiness and residential co unit and connecti it into so e usiness centers In addition to the necessar high s eed connecti it Drogheda can also oast an additional ene it to co anies here securit o connection is essential and that is the le el o redundanc ro ided ro iders o erating on ore than one net or In an centers e en though there a e nu erous ro iders the are sharing a single net or ith the otential that a net or ailure could result in a loss o ser ice a second net or has een rought into Drogheda irgin edia allo ing securit o continuit or critical data o erations e en ith a catastro hic ailure on one net or In the area o healthcare Drogheda’s status in this area has een rogressing o er the ast decades ith the Lourdes os ital ser ing as the regional hos ital or the orth ast ro iding acute e ergenc aternit oncolog alliati e and in ecti e disease edical care a ong others he hos ital is a iliated to the o al ollege o surgeons In addition to the regional hos ital Drogheda is ser ed nu erous ri ar care acilities and nursing ho es ro iding the re uired ull range o care re uired he educational in rastructure in Drogheda and the region has ene ited greatl eing classi ied as a high gro th center the De art ent o ducation his has resulted in a signi icant le el o continuing in est ent in schools and acilities at all le els in the area and the de elo ent o state o the art ri ar and econdar school ca uses In addition to Drogheda’s local college o urther education the secondar
9 | Page s hoo ea ers ro the area ha e a arra o o ege a i ities a ai a e to the i di g D D D D a d ri it ith dire t trai or s ser i es to these e ters he i a area o i rastr t re a ai a e to Drogheda is i ti ities i di g e tri it ater a d aste ater a d aste dis osa he de e o e t o these ti ities has a o ed or sig i i a t a a it to a o odate a o atio i e ess o eo e itho t a re ire e t or e a sio he i i a aste ater treat e t a t i Drogheda as de e o ed i a d graded i to ro ide ri ar se o dar a d tertiar treat e t or a o atio e i a e t o erso s he ater s a d treat e t a i ities i Drogheda are si i ar o erati g at sig i i a t ess tha a a it to the e te t that it is a a e o a i itati g arge areas o eath a so ith high a it ota e ater Drogheda is a so ort ate to ha e the da ar i i eratio a t o ated o o r doorste ro idi g a a i it to s stai a e dis ose o a re se arisi g hi h a ot e re ed a d to eed the e tra ted e erg a i to the atio a grid the o sideratio o the de e o e t o gro th e ters i re a d it is esse tia that Drogheda hi h a read has he re ired i rastr t re i a e a d is a desired o atio or reside tia a d o er ia de e o e t e o sidered ahead o other e ters here additio a i a ia reso r es eed to e e e ded a d e essi e e o rage e ts are re ired to or e de e o e t
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ra or Drogheda has e a e reaso o its sit atio o the otor a a d o the ai orth o th rai a i e together ith its ort a d ro i it to D i air ort a d eas a ess thro gh the ort e to D i ort here are a so a s or a e rai a statio o the orth side o the to a d the ossi i it o a Dart e te sio to Drogheda
d a o Drogheda ser es as the head arters or the o th eath d atio oard a d a so ser es as the e tre o ed atio or the reside ts o the to a d hi ter a d areas e see to i de i the o dar te sio a e Drogheda ra ar hoo t Oliver’s o it o ege r Lady’s o ege ree hi s t Joseph’s e o dar hoo a red eart e o dar hoo a a e o ege t Mary’s Dio esa hoo o aiste a hi se a to oi i h ire D eer rdee o it o ege a d or a sto o ege o eath ith st de t o atio s o ade o reside ts o oth o th Drogheda a d eath a d rre t ro ides ohesio ithi the greater Drogheda o it he er o ea i g erti i ate sits i i o t o th as
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ro heda is avo ra ly si a ed or a e da e y hird level s de s a iversi ies a li a d he e io al olle e i dal is a i ipa ed ha o rea h o rses ro he iversi ies ill e provided i ro heda i he ear re
o r
i y i he re io o ld e a o s or he o ris develop e o he oy e alley as ye o early realised i h h e po e ial ro heda is he e re o Ireland’s os his ori a d ar haeolo i al area si a ed as i is as ride he oy e a d a e ay o he oy e alley des ri ed y he la e hi a er as a “magical area”
he reas re rove o a ra io s o ro heda a d he oy e alley i l de o a er o e i h i s ro d o er a d he i es hree el i i h rosses i he o ry e o e i h i s i pressive re ai s o he irs er a e i rela d he e gra ge a or d er age e he l s a o h a d he air a
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Do h e si e e a e o he o e and e er re a e e re a d r dge e ed dge e a a e e o a e ere a ric li e ascal ire a e a e e o d o er a Do o gh ore and all e a rim i De a ’s a o a e
e n r g eda is grea is rical in eres esieged ice and s rmed r m ell in e eral arliamen s ere eld ere Poyning’s a eing assed an s ried r ins incl de e am s a re e’s a e agda e ee e o e c
e si e e a e o he o e is grea ris en ial i e s ne ase e erec ed a er e a le s ill e is ing e si e is grea in eres e ra ge rder se s r ers a e ac ired a si e acres n ic e lis as erec ed e a e me i l cal in eres s incl ding e i a s mmi ee i a ie re erec ing e lis c mmem ra e e ea e ro e
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s
s o i s on si ion os o o s og n oys ni i s o o s so s o o ning on ys o n y o n y on in n og i i o y s n y s s s o o n os i o n ion n n n ion o i ions s o i i y o o s n i i i y o i oyn o i s i o ions n i i i s o in s o o ing n s o s s s is ing
s s s o i in g o n ing g o o n y o n og ni is i g o n i ns o n o n s i n g y i o n g o n
P ns n o i y o y n y o oyn s y o ning on o o i g i ng ssing o g i s n y n ong o o o og o n n i o y i o n o n ig ion in o s
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s og is n i o n oy n n i y o i s s s o n in n s s i in s y i o n inning g y n o o s in s n n n n o s n s s o s n i ns is s in Peter’s is on ins o s in o i P n
o i n o o n i i s n i n s s n o ing s o s s ing o n si n s in n in i n s n isi o s i so n o s o ing n s on o n i y
s og n i s in n is n i o i i ins i s g o ing o ion
P ns y in is n o n i g o i oyn o i o ss o og Po n o n o o n ss o s s n i n s o ion o o n ings on is “The o n oss Route”
ny o o n ssi y o i y o gion o in o o is s o Dublin’s ong s ion o s n o y s o o o i n o in og gion i n n oy n is o i
og is n i o ion o on n s s o i s ssi i i y n o ision o on n n is ing i y onsi
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Dro he is rti ul rl ortun te in h in ur o our es os it l one o the l r est hos it ls in the st o the ountr ser in t h ent o ul tion o eo le t is the Re ion l Tr u nit n e el P e i tri n bstetri nit or the orth st t h s one o the busiest er en De rt ents in the ountr ith in e ess o resent tions nnu ll
ur o our es os it l is s s or e i l n nursin st n re ite or su h ur oses b n o the ili te bo ies su h s the R P R et t is the l r est hos it l in the orth st Re ion n is the entre or Tr u bstetri s P e i tri s n eon t l e i ine
The urrent stru tures ere inl built in the 0’s, but in lu e ele ents ro the 1990’s, n ost re entl ro the l st e e hen the urrent Ph se blo s o lete This re ent stru ture houses the er en De rt ent n three loors o r o o tion
The Ph se e elo ent urrentl in ro ress on the us ill onsist o
• Ground Floor, accommodating an extension to the existing Emergency Department which will incorporate an extension to the Paediatric treatment area, an increased space for treating Minor Injuries, Rapid Access and Treatment and enhanced treatment facilities for complex care including Resuscitation.
• Three Ward Floors configured as single room accommodation to comply fully with SARI guidelines. (Funding approval is awaited for one level).
• A Theatre Suite comprising five fully compliant operating rooms. (Funding approval is also awaited for these).
The blo ill e ten to ro i tel sin le etres n ill be lin e to the e istin Ph se blo n the in to er blo o the ol er rt o the os it l The onstru tion o shell onl units t resent or one o the r loors n the The tre uit is ue to entr l un in onstr ints ho e er o letion is nti i te on e un in be o es il ble
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s s ss 0 s 01
s s s s s 0 s 0 s s s s s s , s, ss ss s s , s s s , , s, s , , , s , , s s s s s s s s s ss ss s, s s
s s s s s s s s s 0 0
s s s s s s ss s s s s s s s s s
s s s s s
s s s s ss s s s s
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s s , s s s s s s s s s
s “ , ’s s s , s s s , s s s s , s s ss , 0 s s s s s s s s s s , s s ss Drogheda’s people.’
s s s , Ireland’s s s s s €150 s s s s , , , s s s s s s s s s s
s s s s s s s s s s s 0 0 s s s
s s s s s s , , , s , s s ss ss s s s s, s s s s s s s s s s Ireland’s s s s
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In he nor h so h orr dor he r sh o ern en ha e re ogn sed he por an e o e r and s rn g ng he a s – h no Drogheda h h s h larger han e her o hese.
e o ld s ress ha Drogheda s he onl s and alone se le en ha ad o ns ano her large o n o 10 000 pl s pop la on e a o n e s o n and orn ng on. I s n e e a se s no ph s all l n ed o h s o her large o n h h sel s gger han nn s or h lo ra ore or a an.
e a a h repor ro Dr r an ghes h h a es a ogen ase or he agglo era on o Drogheda h a o n e s o n and orn ng on and or he gran ng o a s or Drogheda.
e o ld respe ll s gges ha he “Ireland – 0 0 r Plan” a onal lann ng ra e or n he a onal n eres o ld s ppor o r ongo ng ase or he gran ng o a s or h s gro ng and por an area.
he ad an ages o ha ng a n he or h as reg on ll ene al o o n es ea h and o h ll also g e s ppor o he e ono es o o n es a an and onaghan.
Drogheda s he r gh pla e and h s s he r gh e or s po en al or s s a ned de elop en o e re ogn sed and planned. I ll g e a grea re rn and a heal h and ran l es le or s ens and hose o he eg on and help o alle a e D l n’s pro le s n he a onal In eres .
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BRIAN P. HUGHES
PhD, MSc Hons. (Spatial Planning), Dip. Envir. Econs.,
F.S.C.S.I., F.R.I.C.S., FeRSA, MSSISI.
Chartered Planning & Development Surveyor
Consulting in Urban Economics and Demography
24th October 2017
This Research Study accompanies the Formal Petition for Drogheda-Laytown-Bettystown- Mornington (including Donacarney) to be made Ireland’s sixth city.
Assessing the Demographic Growth Momentum in Identifying the Emerging City of Drogheda with Laytown-Bettystown-Mornington (LBM).
This evidence-based research study presents the application of population density grid analysis in applying the 2015-published Harmonised European Union (HEU) methodology to this emerging east-coast city. In addition to this methodology, this research also describes the current housing developments, photographs of new housing and construction, relevant demographic tables, the map of the new city area and bibliography. It highlights the following research evidence and conclusions:
The population grid densities confirm the physical agglomeration of Drogheda with LBM, reflecting their population size and 20-year growth momentum. This research study confirms that the new, 2015 Harmonised, OECD and EU Measurement test of what constitutes a ‘city’, applies successfully to Drogheda- LBM. This relates to population per square kilometre densities. In the eighteen months since the 2016 census, hundreds of newly-constructed houses have been occupied by upwards of two thousand people, adding to the combined settlement population, which stood at 52,828 in April 2016. Hundreds of additional completed houses have yet to be occupied and further construction is underway in dozens of new construction sites, most notably in Bettystown and Donacarney and throughout Drogheda. Accordingly, Drogheda- LBM now has a larger population than Waterford City.
1
stract
In earlier research literat re this a th r de l yed th lati n si e and dayti e r in lati n data as eas res tential settle ents r selecti n as c ara le r th centres r the ati nal atial ra e r ide hes . n identi ied r le enc ntered in de inin r an settle ents and that their s atial extent is the dile a sites ein a le t distin ish et een the hysical ‘separation’ and the agglomerating ‘contiguity’ of discrete settlements.
Focusing on linear distance as its principal ‘separation’ measure, the United Nations r ides a li itin descri ti n r se arati n in the tas anti yin sin lar r an ields a l erati n and th s in identi yin r cesses city r ati n. In c ntrast The World Bank advocates three ‘D’s which, in addition to Distance and Division, includes ensity . artic larly r Ireland as a s arsely lated c ntry this latter eas re ass es artic lar i rtance es ecially i en its scarce n er lar e settle ents and their linear distances r each ther.
he entral tatistics ice n has the acility r rid ena led data hich can e sed in distin ishin et een exa les scattered r h l y s arsely lated ri n de el ent in c ntrast t that hich can identi y densi yin r anisati n c res.
sin the cens s area lati n res lts this a er n in esti ates and a lies lati n rid data eas res ased n the rid ased de ra hic data a lied at the s are il etre le el. lied t a real li e exa le this techni e acilitates the further research objective of identifying Ireland’s emerging city, the east c ast a l erati n r heda ith ayt n ettyst n rnin t n .
In its cens s the ad ted the nited ati ns dated c n enti n r ettle ent distancin in its application of the ‘100 Metre’ rule r settle ent se arati n. his is a lied t ha ita le ildin s incl din th residential and n n residential str ct res. ri r t the linear distance as etres.
The rationale for its use is …to avoid the agglomerating of adjacent towns caused by the incl si n l density ne d ellin s n the a r ach r tes t t n. ens s rea l e endix . he t ether ith nty th – hich has t Ireland’s three lar est t ns r heda and ndal – this area c rises the Republic’s two million l s lati n share the dyna ic lin el ast ec n ic corridor area; in all, this corridor comprises just over 50% of the island’s 6.65 million e le.
nalysin the a l erati n ith r heda and in c arin this ith that lac r c th ith ndal n the asis the rid criteria this a er c ncl des y n tin the need t distin ish et een hysical se arati n and that hysical a l erati n and r xi ity densi icati n nder the ne ar nised r ean ni n he ra eth d l y es ecially r ernance and l cal ad inistrati n r ses in this ne ttin e le irst era l cal ernance rati nalisati n. st r th esidential e el ents ased n a th ct er s r ey nderta en y the a th r and y eter nahan the ity tat s r ittee.
2
ensus eography pplied easures
The CSO’s evaluation of settlement size is set out in their Population Classified by Area Volumes of recent census results vide Appendix 1, Census Geographic Definitions, PP. 151- 155, CSO (2012). It applies the linear distance rule for confirming settlement separation, applied so as to distinguish between a densely-populated urban field and an adjoining elongated ribbon of mainly housing development that often occurs on access routes to a defined city or town settlement. The objective is to provide definitive and regular-shaped settlements, thereby defining their footprints from their surrounding rural morphology.
Such measures for ‘division’ are effective in statistically isolating discrete new urban areas such as Bearna from Galway and the Balrothery separation from Balbriggan, resulted in creating these new town settlements in 2011. However, the application of such tests on their own, for cases of emerging urban agglomeration are inadequate, especially where two settlements are expanding towards each other and wherein, the provision of shared, linking infrastructure, the momentum of development is designed for and is resulting in emergence of a densified agglomeration, thereby producing a much larger unified settlement, albeit as one that may have more than one central core.
The opposite effect from an inappropriate application of the ‘100 Metre’ rule can serve to ignore or overlook cases such as the emergence of bi-centric, adjacent settlements that are in a process of agglomerating and which are thus forming a larger settlement. One conspicuous example of an Irish failure to ‘see the wood from the trees’ is that of Drogheda’s progress in its agglomeration with nearby Laytown-Bettystown-Mornington (LBM) where a Local Government boundary proposal of late-2015, confined to Drogheda, with the objective of facilitating its local government administration was rejected. Yet, there has been no recognition of the bigger, emerging picture, of Drogheda’s agglomeration with LBM: one that straddles the Elizabethan and adjusted county boundary.
uest for r an oundary hanges and ocal o ernance ssues Notwithstanding Ireland’s unusually low level of urbanisation – with a 2016 share of just 62.70% of its population living in settlements of 1,500 and over – its urban development ‘catch up’ process is resulting in both population growth and a spreading of its urban settlements. Accordingly, many of its cities and towns are experiencing outward growth wherein its towns and environs are spreading beyond former administrative or county boundaries. Thus existing settlement boundary lines are being breached with successive waves of outward development.
Whereas in the census of 1996 the CSO listed twenty settlements whose population overlapped into another county, by 2011 that number had extended to twenty-eight settlements, i.e. Populations of Towns or Environs/Suburbs which are located in more than one county. For modern-day local government administration, such geographic expansion presents particular difficulty driven by an over-riding objective to manage single-settlement administration within a one county authority. See Irish Times letter, P. 21, October 20th: “Local Authorities – time to move on from medieval constraints?”
3
The fre uency of such county boundary ‘straddling’ now re uires a more inclusive treatment for local governance purposes than this existing, blunt, solution of ad usting county boundaries In implementing local governance reform since the 011 census the first phase in the current processes of local government has focused on the rationalisation and merging of county and city units, sometimes with considerable, unresolved, controversy and opposition, as in the case of Cor City and its county
second phase in this process of Local overnment rationalisation, addresses the dilemma of governance ad ustments for some larger and expanding settlements It is noted that the foresighted provisions of proposes flexible arrangements for cases of straddling settlements owever, such aspiration is li ely to re uire updated, matching legislation that has not yet found its way onto the State’s statute books.
ecent boundary revisions were underta en under outdated 1 1 Local overnment legislation for aterford City, Drogheda, Carlow and thlone towns, in descending order of population size Their ob ective was to contain such settlements within a single county for administrative purposes and to so do by redrawing county boundaries where considered expedient. Such administrative ‘juggling’ had been intended to be implemented regardless of the evident extent of local business, resident and sporting opposition owever all four proposals were firmly re ected and there that matter rests
However, Drogheda’s urbanisation is unique in Ireland – outside of the Dublin conurbation, as it is the only large town that is physically agglomerating with another large one, L M
Drogheda – the grid ased e idence for a ity ecognition Despite the publication in 2013 of the Government’s visionary ction rogramme for Local overnment, the Department of ousing, lanning and Local overnment Do CL , had intended to review Drogheda’s former Borough boundary under Section of the now dated Local overnment ct 1 1 ct, rather than implementing the principles contained in the utting eople irst initiative, in pursuance of the administrative ob ective to retain larger single settlements within a single county council area
It is therefore necessary to distinguish the important and uni ue case of ad oining and merging high density agglomeration for the immediate proximity of Drogheda and L M, in contrast to low density and or geographically separated low density ribbon development, elsewhere in Ireland
Drogheda L M provides a uni ue situation in Ireland, where two ad oining plus 10,000 settlements are physically merging The population growth evidence points to Drogheda continuing its demographic growth of up to three times that of the State population growth rate since 1 Since then it became and continues to be Ireland’s largest town. This ongoing agglomeration momentum is supported by the recent provision and commissioning of a 100,000 population capacity waste water tertiary treatment plant at Marsh oad, Drogheda with its lin ing sewer networ s of investment and li ewise with the completion of the District level Shopping Centre at Southgate together with the re commencement of a
number of residential development that are consolidating the merger of Drogheda with B .
In the current local government rationalisation programme, demographic scale is one of two principal issues in question of scale si e, that distinguishes the failed Boundary eview that from all previous Drogheda revisions. his would have resulted in additional ,000 people who reside south of the Boyne being ‘placed’ in County Louth resulting in over 1 ,000 as per the 201 census results, south river. his would also have involved a transfer to outh of several additional square kilometres of what is now part of ounty Meath. In Drogheda’s case, previous county boundary ‘adjustments’ on a smaller scale have already resulted in the cumulative ‘transfer’ of a similar sized area south of the Boyne, from County Meath to ounty outh.
he second issue remains unresolved that of identifying the emergence of a new city on a demographic scale of aterford ity. nlike aterford, arlow and thlone, what differentiates Drogheda is the zero ‘Distance’ separation urban proximity of another large plus 10,000 town that presents the most significant factor for the future administration of Ireland’s emerging city. All three other settlements are ‘stand alone’ and unlike Drogheda, they do not adjoin another such settlement.
f itself B in 201 is Ireland’s thirty fourth largest town and is on a par with shbourne as one of Meath’s largest towns. The boundary review documentation shows Drogheda’s proposed indicative and blue hatched boundary line to the south of the current Borough area of Drogheda which would have resulted in the town’s new boundary extending to the western edge of LBM. To accommodate Drogheda’s expansion it would also have been necessary to adjust its existing northern boundary line within ounty outh, which will affect a further 2,000 plus of the town’s population.
he logical administrative rationalisations under the initiative should result in a outh eath administrative unification, with Drogheda LBM becoming Ireland’s fifth largest city and that sub region’s logical administrative centre with a current population that is greater than that of aterford ity. ith the emergence of Drogheda B as a city, the boundary transferral of further eath territory into outh becomes an administrative irrelevancy. Drogheda + LBM’s confirmation as Ireland’s next city will complement south of the border, the North’s earlier initiative to grant city status to both Lisburn and Newry, within the Dublin Belfast orridor.
’s
he rban ield of the Drogheda B opulation Density Grid on a ne Sq. m. basis is applicable to the SI Discovery Series ap 3 ourth dition, 1 0,000 scale for the 2011 census population is set out in a population grid format, kindly provided by the CSO to this author in December 201 . he complete matrix for the twin settlement of Drogheda and B confirms a grid formation in a north south depth of ten kilometre rows. he respective 2011 core populations are set out in an ‘all border’ format, comprising fourteen medium
density central grids totalling , in population for LBM, located east of and next to the twenty grids totalling , for Drogheda. In all, these adjoining s . m. grids comprise a agglomeration population of , with an average density of , people per s . m., set out as follows
s s – s
s s
ootnote
o as to maintain local anonymity, the CSO records a count of ‘5’ where grids have recorded census populations of between and . ero populated grids are as shown. o as to ma e the interpretation of the grid more manageable, it limits the matrix size to eleven ilometres in width and ten ilometres in depth. It is however recognised that this surface area is therefore somewhat smaller than that of the Drogheda and District area population , in and somewhat smaller again than the Louth and Meath ural Areas plus Drogheda Borough C population , in and , in the Census data of . It is of a size that captures the adjoining Drogheda and LBM towns and their contiguous environs.
ased on the census demogra hic outcome, augmented y the growth in o u ation and the more recent hysica evidence of rea estate deve o ment, there is today, itt e hysica or demogra hic se aration etween the sett ements of rogheda and his is confirmed in the Ordnance Survey of re and a ‘spine’, of an unbroken high- density ‘band’ of population in adjoining grids. This central ‘spine’ extends east-west for ten square kilometres, identified in an axis along the grid 74/75 (including from references 6/7 to 15/16), as shown in the one-kilometre cells of this Discovery Series, map No. 43.
This is used as the grid-base for the CSO’s grid matrix of populations based on the 2011 census, The west-to-east populations along this ‘spine’ grid line 74/75, comprises an aggregate population of 18,314, identified in their respective one sq. km. populations which is set out in the following Greater Drogheda’s Urban Fie d rid atri , showing this consolidated ‘spine’ cells extract, thus:-
Source art of the CSO o u ation grid one i ometre s uare matri dimension, as re uested and ind y rovided y the CSO to rian ughes, ecem er 5
he si eft hand side rogheda grids, east to inc ude grid , are immediate y fo owed y the four right hand LBM ones from 12/13 eastwards. This agglomeration spine’ for rogheda conc usive y resents an interfacing and uninterru ted o u ation density for these ad oined sett ements. Furthermore, these ‘spine’ data represent just one row of a ten row dee matri heir s atia argument, confirming this twin sett ement merger for rogheda , is ased on this east west s ine of the ad acent o u ation grids as aid out in the fu matrix grid. These identified ten adjoining ‘spine’ square kilometre cells have an average o u ation density of , which is higher than the density of any of the four rovincia cities in re and in that census
significant distinguishing feature between ‘ribbon development’ morphology and a dense, continuous ‘urban field’ is the extent and depth of development. This author avers the se ection of one i ometre s uare grids which is a s atia y significant one a measure in inear terms which is ten times that of the metre distance owever, in eva uating the rocess of ur anisation for evo ving arge sett ements and in a owing for oc ets of undeveloped land or of large underdeveloped sites, it is also desirable to balance ‘space’ area with density, discussed as fo ows, in using the e am e of the in ing of unda with its ad oining seaside su ur of ac roc , Co outh
–
For reland third largest town Louth’s County Town, Dundalk and its seaside suburb of Blackrock is centred to its south at some three to four kilometres remove. ll together they comprise a 2 11 census settlement population of 3 , 1 , where the Blackrock area comprises , of its total population. Blackrock is adjudged to conform to the U. . distance rule and thus to be included as the southern part of a single Dundalk settlement.
owever, the one kilometre square grid populations, when compared with the above Drogheda LBM grid, reveals that its are less dense than those comparable ones for Drogheda LBM, the latter settlement’s identified linking cell density being diluted to 328, 2, 11 and 3 persons per square kilometre because of the presence of an 1 ole golf course at aggardstown. They are set out in a similar Grid map Discovery eries o. 3 2 format including the specified grid cell references, as follows
–
1 3 2
23 2, 1, 12 3 2
3 2,232 2,31 1, 1, 3 2 2
1, 2 1,3 ,3 2, 2 1
3 2, 2 2,1
2 2 3 32 11
3 2 2 3
1 3 1 1 2, 2
2 21 31 331
ource opulation 2 11 ensus ote The boxed grids delineate the Dundalk Blackrock ‘spine’, which runs in a north north west south south east axis.
The distorted result of applying the aforementioned 1 metre U. . distance criterion on its own, instead of utilising density proximity measurements is that it masks Ireland’s few emerging cases of urban agglomeration. From a side by side comparing of the two sets of grid population data, the Drogheda LBM scale and si e of urban agglomeration is far superior to that of Dundalk Blackrock. ence, the following comparisons are instructive
ne m rid i e rogheda LBM s km undalk Blackrock 3 s km otal rid opulations rogheda LBM 2, undalk Blackrock 38, Linking 2 grid opulations rogheda LBM , 2 undalk Blackrock 8 2 opulations rogheda 38, 8 undalk excluding Blackrock 3 ,3 2 LBM and Blackrock opulations LBM ,88 Blackrock , rid ensest LBM cell 2, 2 densest Blackrock cell 2, 28 population oid cells rogheda LBM cells undalk Blackrock cells
rom a go ernance standpoint gi en these brief empiric 2 comparisons and their resultant evidence bases, the NSS description of Drogheda’s status and presumed ‘function’, which is officially described as a ‘support’ town to the Dundalk Gateway, reflects a “tail wagging dog” assessment, focused on a misguided focus of retention of the current ‘county town’ arrangement
It also reflects a rigid local go ernance mind set of one that refuses to address the density and scale size evidence of Drogheda’s agglomeration with LBM. This is buttressed in selecti ely using the istance ule for settlement separation whilst choosing to ignore the fact that Dundalk inclusive of Blackrock’s 2011 population is less than that of stand alone rogheda, without LBM
’s contiguity In analysing the population densities of the central spine cells that attach the respecti e ad oining settlements, it is possible to clarify the respecti e le els of agglomeration of rogheda LBM compared with undalk including Blackrock Co Louth, in 2
By definition, the undalk Blackrock infill typifies a ribbon infill morphology which is essentially fixed because of the aforementioned presence and hollowing out effect of its 8 hole golf course long the west side of the golf course, another ‘ribbon’ development links undalk southward to Blackrock represented by the cell grids of 3 8 and 2 populations In contrast, Drogheda’s higher density link cells already exhibit much superior densities, despite still ha ing further infill land de elopment potential irst are shown the data of Dundalk’s spine cells:
Dundalk’s 2 spine cells
ource I rid map isco ery eries o 3 2 west east first, followed by their north south coordinates for these nine one kilometre s uare populations
or the con enience of easy comparison, the corresponding rogheda spine cells are shown alongside, as follows
GreaterGreater Drogheda’s Drogheda’s consolidated consolidated ‘spine’ ‘spine’ cells: cells:--
ot ot
Source:Source: art artof the of S the S popu populationlation grid grid one one kilometre kilometre s uare s uare matri matri dimension, as as kindly kindly provided provided to toBrian Brian ughes, ughes, December December 201 . 201 .
ThusThus Drogheda’s Drogheda’s interface interface with with LBM LBM is isat at the the point point shownshown as wherewhere cell cell (population) (population) 2,470 2,470 meetsmeets the thecorresponding corresponding Dundalk Dundalk interface interface withwith Blackrock isis atat the the point point where where populationpopulation cell cell2, 02 2, 02 meets meets . . The The ne t ne t respective respective cellscells show respectiverespective populations populations of of 482 for482 Dundalk’s for Dundalk’s Blackrock Blackrock and and 752 752 for for Drogheda’s Drogheda’s LBM.LBM.
ccordingly, ccordingly, the theDrogheda Drogheda link link cells cells are are noted noted as as beingbeing significantly denser denser in in populatio populations ns than thanthose those of Dundalk’s. of Dundalk’s. The The lower lower densities densities for for Dundalk’s Dundalk’s link cellscells are are explained explained primarily primarily by theby positioningthe positioning and and location location of ofthe the aforementioned aforementioned golfgolf course. et, et, the the contrasting contrasting case case of Drogheda’sof Drogheda’s potential potential is isnoted noted as as one one where where thesethese specific cellscells containcontain residentially residentially zonedzoned lands lands which which remain remain to tobe be developed developed and and thus thus becomebecome densedenserr. .
ontrasting ontrasting these these two two sets sets of ofad oining ad oining settlements, settlements, itit is noted thatthat the the NSS NSS 2002 2002 strategy strategy had obviouslyhad obviously ignored ignored Drogheda’s Drogheda’s agglomeration agglomeration with with LBMLBM as beingbeing one one that that then then suggests suggests linearlinear dis contiguitydis contiguity and and would would not not have have had had the the parallel parallel evidence of of density density and and pro imity pro imity as adducedas adduced above. above. n contrast, n contrast, the the NSS NSS had had sought sought toto relyrely solely onon the the formulation formulation of offar far fetchedfetched ‘Linked ‘Linked Gateway’ Gateway’ and and ‘Linked ‘Linked Hub’ Hub’ concept, concept, wherewhere avaverageerage distances distances are are some some 1 1 milesmiles 0 km. 0 km. separating separating individual individual settlement settlement populations populations inin thethe 1 1 ,000,000 to to 100,000 100,000 range range for Letterkerenny for Letterkerenny with with Derry , Derry , but but typically typically for for settlements settlements ofof aboutabout 1 ,000 1 ,000 to to 20,000 20,000 e.g. e.g. thlone, thlone, Tullamore Tullamore and and Mullingar Mullingar with with dist distancesances ofof up to km.km. t t is is as as if ifthe the urban urban economiceconomics impediments impediment of ‘distanceof ‘distance decay’ decay’ did did not not e ist. e ist.
Therefore,Therefore, it is it apposite is apposite to toaddress address the the demographic demographic data supportingsupporting the the Drogheda Drogheda LBM LBM agglomerationagglomeration as asIreland’s Ireland’s next next city: city: one one thatthat matchesmatches the demographidemographicscs of of fifth fifth city city aterford, aterford, based based on oncomparative comparative evidence evidence of of selectedselected growth centres,centres, including including that that of of Dundalk.Dundalk.
c nt c nt og ics og ics n n t t og og o t o t o ntu o ntu The TGreaterhe Greater Drogheda Drogheda rea rea and and of of its its sphere sphere of of influenceinfluence componentscomponents include include the the Louth Louth and andMeath Meath ural ural reas reas includ includinging the the Drogheda Drogheda Borough,Borough, allall comprisingcomprising a apopulation population of of , 1 , 1 in 201 in 201 , see, see Table Table – – mor more ethan than twicetwice the population of of ounty ounty Longford. Longford. aving aving been been , 1 , 1 in 1 , in 1 , this this increase increase of of , , representsrepresents aa growthgrowth of of . . over over that that 20 year20 yearperiod period. Due. Due to theto the much much faster faster rates rates of of growth growth since thethe 1 1 census, census, this this ppendi ppendi confirmsconfirms that that population population total total in in201 201 is isalmost almost evenly evenly splitsplit forfor thethe north north and and south south banks banks of of the Boyne.the Boyne. The The impressive impressive additional additional growth growth in in the the interveningintervening eighteeneighteen months months since since the the 201 201 census, census, is augmentedis augmented by by the the occupation occupation ofof hundrhundreds ofof newnew houses houses, a, sa detaileds detailed below.below.
1010
Given the locational advantages of the south bank area, including the south suburbs of Drogheda and LBM, especially given its accessibility to Dublin, the irport and the M50, it is unsurprising that the two towns are consolidating their agglomeration with one another, boosted by the rate of population growth: one that is an historic multiple times that of aterford city.
s already noted, this uni ue case of Drogheda LBM is not repeated in the three other proposed boundary review cases of aterford, arlow or thlone, all of which are stand alone settlements and are not remotely ad oined to another large town. It is also observed that in the 20 census, LBM itself was larger in population than nniscorthy, Tramore, kerries and Longford or the county towns of icklow or avan.
ccordingly, the nature of the failed Boundary eview and its Terms of eference misrepresented what has been happening on the ground and would have been both short term in effect and unfit for purpose in addressing the wider demographic picture, vide ppendix :
t og o u tion n i
These data sets provide incontrovertible evidence of the Drogheda LBM progress in their agglomeration with each other, based on recent censuses and the disposition of Greater Drogheda Area’s population growth. In the twenty years 1996-2016 the former Municipal Borough of Drogheda together with the adjoining Louth and Meath Rural Areas have increased by a massive 79.37% (46,451 to 83,317) at a time when Ireland itself has grown by 31.32%. The on the 20 ensus provided the earliest direct comparison at the ural and Borough lectoral Districts with the populations of the 20 ensus. Given the young age profile and family formation propensity of the more recently established population growth south of river, the argument in favour of amalgamating the Greater Drogheda rea population, but especially that of Drogheda with LBM with their intrinsic growth momentum, is both a persuasive and reasonable one.
s it has been found possible for the to recognise Dundalk with Blackrock ( o Louth) as being a single settlement, it is consistent to argue similarly for Drogheda and LBM’s agglomeration as a single urban field, based on the grid density evidence of this aper. ext is examined the relevant, internationally applied methodology.
onis u o n nion inition o ‘City’ This area of this Paper’s research focuses on the EU’s new set of rules for defining cities, kindly brought to one’s attention by the CSO. Until 2015, there was no harmonized definition of ‘a city’ for European and other countries member of the Organization for Economic Co- operation and Development (OECD). This undermined the task of comparability, and also the credibility, of cross-country analysis of cities. To resolve this problem, the OECD and the European Commission has developed a new definition in 2015, of a city and its commuting zone.
This new definition works in four basic steps and is based on the presence of an ‘urban centre’ a new spatial concept based on high-density population grid cells. Source: Di stra, L and oelman, L , – , uropean ommission, D egio
2 Step 1: All grid cells with a density of more than 1 500 inhabitants per km are selected (Map 1.1).
[1] [2] Step 2: The contiguous high-density cells are then clustered, gaps are filled and only the clusters with a minimum population of 50 000 inhabitants (Map 1.2) are kept as an ‘urban center’.
Step 3: All the municipalities (local administrative units level 2 (or LAU2) with at least half their population inside the urban center are selected as candidates to become part of the city (Map 1.3).
Step 4: The city is defined ensuring that 1) there is a link to the political level, 2) that at least 50 % of the city population lives in an urban center and 3) that at least 75 % of the population of the urban center lives in a city (Map 1.4)[3]
In most cases, as for example in Graz, the last step is not necessary as the city consists of a single municipality that covers an entire urban center and the majority of the city residents live in that urban center. This is not currently the governance circumstance in Drogheda+LBM.
10. A Drogheda-LBM Interpretation of the Harmonised EU Measures:
In the 2011 census Drogheda+LBM had twelve grids with densities of 1,500 and over, together with a further five with 1,000-plus populations. Dundalk+Blackrock’s respective count is eleven and two. In the census of 2016 Dundalk was replaced by Swords as Ireland’s second largest town.
Applying the above 4-step test and in comparing Drogheda+LBM with Dundalk+Blackrock the following observations are noted. Dundalk+Blackrock fails on the application of the Step 2 minimum population requirement of 50,000 whereas Drogheda+LBM exceeds that minimum population criterion, but as in the anomalous case of Waterford City, only so when the matrix of all adjoining grids are included.
When the these kilometer-square grid cells of at least 1,500 population are identified, the test for ‘contiguity’ requires each of its surrounding eight cell cluster, in turn, to abut the adjoining cluster whose central cell has a population of at least 1,500 people. In this context of ‘compactness’ this ‘test’ would be satisfied for the following grid cell disposition in the following extract for Dundalk+Blackrock, thus:
, , , , ,
In identifying particular ‘central’ cells with their respective populations and their afore mentioned cell clusters, is noted that ‘clusters’ 2,105 and 2,028 are contiguous ith one another at the point line here cells and abut all census
here Drogheda ad oins LBM the same test for comparable cell clusters are sho n, thus
n this case, the core cell clusters of , and , are at one remo e from each other ith respect to their surrounding cell positioning n that basis, Drogheda LBM ould appear to fail the second step re uirement for contiguity o e er, should its specific cell, of , population of , gro to e ual or e ceed , in a future e g in the census , then the , minimum population criterion ould appear to be satisfied, e en omitting the lo density ro s of cells from the top and bottom of the matri
Application of the ule ould therefore re uire the shortfall to be eliminated in that , populated cell’s population n this regard, it is noted that this cell is fully positioned within the St Mary’s lectoral District, hich achie ed an o erall gro th as per the reliminary ensus results In the 2016 census, that cell’s population has increased to , , a shortfall of less than from the ra ule re uirement
mportantly ho e er, since that census, the has confirmed that they are no able to finesse their grid measures to metre s uares as per the census data n this same basis and based on the population densities of adjoining squares, by applying a ‘grid shuffle’ ad ustment of metres, either est ard or east ard, the remainder of the , populated square increases to more than the required 1,500 due to the ‘spillover’ effect from denser cells, hilst at the same time maintaining the minimum , core cell population on the Drogheda side
ccordingly, it is posited that the ra measure applied to rogheda M confirms that the four step criterion for ity Measurement is achieved
his is by way of noting that in the 18 month period that has elapsed since the 2016 census, the aggregate population of rogheda M continues to grow with added momentum and given their differentiated growth rate with that of aterford during 2011 2016, at this point it has most li ely e ceeded that of aterford ity and nvirons
It is understood that Waterford’s comparable cell structure for its 2011 census grid outcome li ewise presents some similar dis continuous anomalies owever, it is understood that there is provision for individual State to be able to apply for derogation where a ‘city’ status already exists. Some six States have already availed of this Appeals’ provision.
In addition to these demographic criteria, the evidence of recent rogheda M growth and agglomeration is reinforced by the recommencement of residential development since the 2016 census here are a number of such developments, some of which have been completed, resulting in further boosting living in the rogheda M agglomeration i t i ti amining the adjoining nine grid rogheda section grid centred on cell 2, 0 as it meets the nine grid M section grid centred on cell population 1,22 , the 2011 S ensus confirms the M cell to be short of the 1,500 criterion by 2 6 or by 18 he nine rogheda cells aggregate to , 80, averaging 8 2 per cell he nine M cells aggregate to 6, 6, averaging 10 per cell
C – t ti i ti
5 6
56 1
11 0
art of Drogheda side……………………….>|<…………………………. art of M side
hese 2011 cell populations are ne t compared with the similar cell data for the 2016 cell populations, as follows
1
–
1 1
20
art of Drogheda side……………………….>|<…………………………. arty of side
In 201 the pivotal core cell has increased to 1 02 ust persons or . short of the re uired 1 00 population before any grid shuffling . he nine agglomerating Drogheda cells aggregate to 0 averaging 0 per cell representing an increase of . above the 2011 outturn. i ewise the nine cells aggregate to 22 averaging 0 per cell an increase of 12. .
It is posited that by applying the grid shuffle techni ue in either direction east west the respective core grids will exceed the 1 00 population threshold on the side by virtue of the portion of grid 2 spill over. his is not to be confused with the similar populated 201 grid population on the Drogheda side.
n 1 th ctober 201 rian ughes together with eter onahan from the ity Status ommittee visited many building sites including completed and occupied phases in the area. he primary purpose of this Survey was to gauge the extent and momentum of development and specifically to assess the li ely effect on population growth since the 201 census the extent of overall development and conse uently on the progress of consolidating the agglomeration between Drogheda and . xtensive follow up ‘phone calls were made to officials and local authority councillors to corroborate and clarify our survey observations.
he original intention was to obtain data from each of the 0 0 development sites. owever the sheer volume and extent of current development activity has resulted in a decision to provide the following collective picture rather than schedules of individual site data. As an overview the level of development and its progress is more mar ed for than for Drogheda as at mid ctober 201 .
1
n he ase o he a or o us o de e op en is geographi a idespread u par i u ar so o he nor h side o e s o n and sou h o Dona arne i age. n aggrega e er s up ard o houses o p e ed sin e he pri ensus are no o upied and apar ro he on hs o gro h o he e is ing se e en popu a ion sin e hen e es i a e ha up ard o addi iona ne residen s are here ore i ing in . ear his e e o ne o upied re e s e iden e o a orda i i – an issue ha is i a o o h reso ing he housing risis and o he continuance of Ireland’s economic re o er and o i s o pe i i eness. ur her ore a si i ar nu er o es a es o ain de a hed and se i de a hed houses are o p e ed u are no e o upied. os su h o p e ions appear o o prise pri a e–se or uni s.
hased ons ru ion is he on en iona odus or ongoing or a arious s ages o ons ru ion on up ards o en si es. n addi ion here as e iden e o a nu er o o her si es as in he pro ess o eing opened up i h ongoing pipe or onne ion and o her u i i ins i a ion and road ui ding. ear he e en o su h de e op en re e s he a ai a i i o he a or as e a er p an a agrennan i h i s e ensi e pipe ne or o hese areas and i e ise he o p e ed Dis ri hopping en re a ou hga e ui in an i ipa ion o he s a e o he residen ia de e op en ha is no under a .
ording he popu a ion o shou d e e pe ed o in rease o ensus o in ude he popu a ion o his ne housing. he de ographi i pa o su h arge s a e residen ia de e op en s is eing re e ed in he in reasing popu a ion densi o he a o e des ri ed grid s uares hi h are a and ose o he a o e re erred in er a e e een sou h eas Drogheda and he nor h and es ern se ions o .
n regard o Drogheda residen ia de e op en has o en ed a si es or up o uni s ain on he ou s ir s o he o n i h so e s a er ones o prising in i housing and so e i ed ones. nu er o si es ere inspe ed during he ourse o he da . he a or o us or Drogheda town’s u ure e pansion o prises he pu i se or and an o he nor h o he o n hi h has he po en ia o pro ide up o housing uni s and an o era po en ia o a o oda e a popu a ion in rease o . ddi iona de e op en s ha e a read o en ed or are a ou o so do on o h nor h and sou h sides o he o n encouraged by assessments of financial viability, coupled with the ‘use it or lose it’ lifespans o urren p anning per issions. hese in ude
uni s in a a enn es and he en ies ane
uni s nor h o Drogheda ns i u e o ur her du a ion
uni s on he er on e in oad on inua ion o s on i age
uni s in e een a a enn oad as .
uni s a ea ieu anor er on e in oad in addi ion o ui ding a i i on he sou hside in uding de e op en s on he Donore oad in i pro e s ad oining he a an ai a ine and a re en o p e ed and o upied de e op en a o p es in sou h eas Drogheda.
n addi ion o ser i ing he e is ing as de e oping popu a ion he se uen ia na ure o pro iding su h a arge series o de e op en s i re uire are u phasing or a he suppor
services, schools, shopping and utilities, particularly the orthern ross oad , including enhanced port access and the proposed northern rogheda railway station ther developments are e pected to see the recommencement of pro ects, as were noted during our survey, particularly on the south side of the town ome of them had stopped abruptly, at the start of the roi a crisis
pportunities to provide for wide socio economic types of housing, are reflected in medium density developments ones providing for layouts including terrace and semi detached formats owever, apartment type construction was not much in evidence, as of now – which reflects the ctober test for profitability for this format of development, which may be only marginally viable, see Irish imes, , of today’s date
he li ely scale of future development throughout rogheda should be ointly monitored and administered by the two county councils, outh and eath, under the initiative, using the rogheda orough uthority as the base for this new city he need for this type of administrative co operation was articulated in the recent oundary eport for rogheda
ignificantly, the application of evidence based population density grid data techni ue, at the standardised one s uare ilometre level as published in i stra, and oelman, , – , uropean ommission, egio, now provides an internationally recognised way of avoiding the urban classification problem for identification of emerging cities It represents the accepted internationally recognised methodology for obtaining such insights that utilise such data, that has been available only as recent as It should therefore be adopted and utilised in the process of growth settlement selection in future national and regional level spatial strategy plan formulation for Ireland he evidence adduced in this research, with its application of the armonised grid test informs the emergence of Ireland’s next stand alone city, rogheda one that is on a scale si e with aterford ity but which is now growing at nearly three times as fast It was noted that the reliminary population of , for the reater rogheda rea r in represents a growth since ogether rogheda have a larger and denser agglomerating population than that of undal lac roc , o outh
ver aterford ity and environs population increased by , to , or , ust ahead of the national growth average of the comparative growth for rogheda is above twice that level, thereby eliminating the former si e difference, as of the Petition date for their confirmation as Ireland’s newest city
ignificant built environment infrastructure pro ects and the demographic and growth momentum data, as presented herein, articulates the progress made by rogheda to and then to – thrice the rate of the State’s population growth. The intervening five years to 2016 has seen the ‘retirement’ of the defective National Spatial Strategy including its notorious failure to recognise this most significant e ample of an Irish urban agglomeration outside of ublin
There is also the underlying egional level data from the Planning egional ast est split as per ppendix hereunder which contrasts the demographic growth as etween the two halves of the State and which at the NP level ustifies the confirmation of another east coast city given the reality of Ireland’s population centroid now as far east as aynooth. The east west Planning egion split of the State’s population growth 2011 2016 was 1 0 versus 0 for the est Planning egions or . versus 2.1 growth in the North South line down to oughal and in dividing the order egion into its three eastern and three western counties .
The perverse 2002 NSS classification of rogheda where it was neither considered to merit a ’Gateway’ nor a ‘Hub’ designation, but which was assigned a demeaning role as a ‘support town’ to Dundalk in the order egion was deeply flawed oth on ur an economic and demographic grounds. The comparative research evidence presented in this Paper confirms that such spatial classification is unwarranted and is perhaps explained as one that was adversely politically driven. That classification also ignored the ppendix 2 definitions of alanced egional evelopment.
The fact that rogheda is not mentioned in the latest raft of the National Planning ramewor reflects poorly on the content of that production or an a sence of an awareness of the compelling demographics as adduced herein and hence uestions the professionalism or at worst is a political decision to again deli erately ignore or supress the emergence of Ireland’s next city. The previous use and application of Small rea Population Statistics S PS has the draw ac of their wide surface area variations for comparing the populations of small areas such as lectoral istricts which were of varying si es and populations.
s was confirmed y the then inister for the nvironment Simon oveney at the aynooth niversity launch of the National Planning ramewor on 2nd e ruary 201 it is heralded as a process that will use evidenced ased data in its construction. Then inister oveney in response to Dr Brian Hughes’ question from the audience, confirmed that he and his epartment would examine and comment on this evidence ase for rogheda when formally presented. unior inister amien nglish was also present and li ewise gave his full endorsement to this awaited evidenced ased Petition.
ccordingly this Report’s emerging demographic evidence of ur an agglomeration for matrix field densification purposes in settlement si e classification places rogheda in the vanguard of Ireland’s major fast growth centres.
The ac ground theory and application of grid ased measurement has een pioneered in Ireland y S ’s Dermot Corcoran, in his DIT Masters Dissertation (2011) ne is grateful to ermot for providing the rogheda and undal 2011 grid data in excel format consistent with the respective specified SI maps as referenced hereina ove.
Pending Brussels’ approval of Ireland’s three NUTS 2 Super Regions, as provided for in the Putting People First Action Programme, this research will assist the County Louth’s integration into the East Region (Map at Page 191, ibid). The agglomeration of Drogheda-LBM opens the path for this Government to undertake the process for
1 the grant of city status, triggered by the formal Petition that this Research Study accompanies. It will consolidate the growth of the Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor, commensurate with Lisburn and Lurgan’s recent acquisition of city status north of the Border. This research paper presentation has tracked the 1996-2016 censuses demographic progress of Drogheda and Laytown-Bettystown-Mornington as the subsequent real estate development that represents the physical and demographic engine of growth within the fast-growing Greater Drogheda agglomeration and is size significance in the post-Brexit context.
The Appendix 5 of this research points to the relationship between local employment in the form of Daytime Working Population as a proportion of a town’s population, and the need for large and expanding urban centres to match population growth with employment growth and the location of central place functions. In Drogheda’s case both the IDA and Enterprise Ireland can point to the employment potential of a large and fast-increasing workforce, located within 30-40 minutes of Ireland’s largest port and airport and strategically located within the Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor. These Appendix 5 data, for the Daytime Working Populations of Drogheda and LBM, at 30.18% and 6.49% respectively, as the percentages of their total residential populations, provide at both the national and regional levels, significant local employment potential. Specifically, to be able to rectify what in 2016 is a skewed land-use planning-transportation interface for this deep labour-pool of skilled employment, both for local new enterprise and corporate activity and for third-level and higher educational activity. In turn, in fulfilling these central-place objectives, the current generating of intensive medium and long-distance commuting patterns will be greatly reduced. The Appendix content includes photographic evidence of completed and occupied houses, other completed or near-finished housing not yet occupied, a variety of building sites under construction and other sites where utilities and roads are under construction. Likewise, the proposed described mapped-boundaries, comprising an area of 72 square kilometres for the new city of Drigheda-LBM, is also included in the Appendix content. For ease of reference this map also includes the same grid references in layout, prepared by Edward Phelan and Co., VCL Consultants, Drogheda.
The research study concludes that the agglomeration of Drogheda-LBM now provides a most significant opportunity for this Government, in the national interest, to confirm this location as Ireland’s next city and this evidence-based Research Study underwrites the formal submission of the accompanying Petition for City Status.
1
BIBLIOGRAPHY and REFERENCES
Vide: Author’s Related Publications, on [email protected] [Hughes, B.]
Central Statistics Office (1996 and 2016) Census, Area Volume, Populations, Stationery Office, Dublin
Central Statistics Office (201 ) Census, , Stationery Office, Dublin
Central Statistics Office (2011 and 2016) Grid Population Data for Drogheda and Dundalk
Central Statistics Office (2017), Population and Migration Estimates, Stationery Office, Dublin
Christaller, W. (1933), Central Places in Southern Germany, Jena, Germany. English Translation by C.W. Baskin, Prentice Hall, London (1966)
Corcoran, D (2011) Disseminating Irish Census data using grids: An example of combining spatial and statistical information, DIT MSc Spatial Information Management dissertation
Dijkstra, and oelman, (201 ), – , uropean Commission, DG Regio ujita, M , rugman, and enables, (2001), The MIT ress, Cambridge, Massachusetts ugita, M and Thisse, (201 ), (2nd d ) Cambridge niversity ress Garreau, (1 1) ew ork, Doubleday Hall, and ain, ( ds ) (200 ), ondon, arthscan Henderson, J.V. (1974), The Size and Type of Cities, American Economic Review 64, 640-656.
Henderson, J.V. and Wang, H.G. (2007) Urbanisation and City Growth: The role of Institutions, Vol. 7, Issue 3, PP 283-313, Regional Science and Urban Economics.
Hughes, B (2012) Drogheda’s Case for City Status: A Presentation to the Minister for the Environment on behalf of Drogheda City Status Group and Drogheda Borough Corporation, May 2012 in Leinster House, [an unpublished PowerPoint presentation].
Hughes, B (201 ) Dissertation, Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin
ational Spatial Strategy (2002) Department of the nvironment Community and ocal Government, Dublin
O’Leary, E. (2005) The iffey ress
ction (2011) rogramme for ocal Government, Department of the nvironment Community and ocal Government, Dublin
Robert icoud, (200 ) Regional Studies ssociation, ol 1, o 1, 101 12 une 200 , ISS 1 2 1 2, ew ork Routledge
(200 ) , utures cademy, DIT
rban and Institute ctober 201 , ational Convention Centre, Dublin – roceedings and Discussions
Zoellick, RB, (2009) Reshaping Economic Geography – World Development Report, The World Bank - The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Washington, DC.
20
APPENDIX 1
The following 2016 Preliminary Electoral District Populations are compared herein together with the 2011 Census out-turn for the Greater Drogheda Area, thus:
Louth Rural Area: Electoral District 2011 Population 2016 Population Population Growth Percentage Growth Clogher 3,031 3,237 206 6.8 Dysart 918 924 6 0.7 Monasterboice 1,342 1,373 31 2.3 Mellory 1,723 1,757 34 2.0 St. Peter’s (pt) 5,173 9,721 570 6.2 Termonfeckin 3,294 3,545 251 7.6 Total 15,481 20,557 1,098 5.6
Meath Rural Area: Electoral District 2011 Population 2016 Population Population Growth Percentage Growth Ardcath 1,911 1,949 38 2.0 Duleek 5,177 5,565 388 7.5 Julianstown 9,606 10,176 570 5.9 Mellifont 561 541 -20 -3.6 St. Mary’s (part) 10,769 11,864 1,095 10.2 Stamullen 4,696 5,009 313 6.7 Total 32,720 35,104 2,384 7.3
Drogheda Borough Area: Electoral District 2011 Population 2016 Population Population Growth Percentage Growth Fair Gate 9,806 10,424 511 6.3 St. Laurence’s Gate 4,004 4,068 71 1.6 West Gate 6,042 6,305 242 4.4 St. Peter’s (part) 3,978 2,099 -62 -2.9 St. Mary’s (part) 6,563 6,859 296 4.5 Total 30,393 27,656 1,241 4.7
,5 , , 2 .0
Note 1: Caution is required in above comparisons because the 2016 Census data are ‘preliminary’, pending a e e e re , 20 . re ary a e r 20 20 a . .
Note 2: Drogheda Borough’s population was recorded as 30,393 in the 2011 census, some 1,817 above the a r e re e e 20 re ary e . e L ra area a e a ,2 are 5, e 20 e , e O rea e, a e .
e 20 e , a y a a e e rea e e , r e e e e e e a r e a L e 52, 2 . r ay e ar e E r ea nion’s r a e e y a a era r er a a er e e er ea re r ra , r a, a e . 2 a er. re er e a er , r e ea ra rea a a a e a e r ar e rea er r e a rea, a ar ar y r e e er e a e r a ar the St. Mary’s Electoral District south ea r e a r . e r e r e e e – a , a ,22 20 , e . – e e a e e e e a r r e r e a L r a a era . r er re, a a re ar ra r ra r , e r e e e a e e e a a a a e r e y e a e e e e re e a e e e r a rea y er e ar r e a re r e rea a a era . e e e e e e e er ay a re r e a .
2
he ey concepts o the NSS are potential, critical mass, gateways, hubs, complementary roles and lin ages. otential is the capacity that an area possesses, or could in uture possess, or development, arising rom its endowment o natural resources, population, labour, its economic and social capital, in rastructure and its location relative to mar ets. Critical mass relates to si e and concentration o population that enables a range o services and acilities to be supported. his in turn can attract and support higher levels o economic activity and improved quality o li e. ateways have a strategic location, nationally and relative to their surrounding areas, and provide national scale social, economic in rastructure and support services. urther development o the ive e isting gateways at Dublin, Cor , imeric Shannon, alway and ater ord is a ey component o the NSS. ubs: number o towns will act as hubs, supporting the national and international role o the gateways and in turn energising smaller towns and rural areas within their sphere o in luence. Complementary roles or other towns, villages and rural areas various medium si ed towns in each region will act as ‘local capitals’ providing a range of services and opportunities for employment. ithin the spatial ramewor provided by the NSS, rural potential will draw upon local economic strengths, supported by a stronger structure o smaller towns and villages as a ocus or economic and social activity and residential development. in ages in terms o good transport, communications and energy networ s are vitally important to enable places and areas to play to their strengths.
22
–
ote n the reliminary ensus esults the 2011 figure for St Peter’s Electoral District was reduced y from that recorded in the rea olume for the earlier census from to . he advise that this difference reflects a population and land area issue at the reliminary census stage which will e rectified in the final figures for the census when released in the spring of . ccordingly the Drogheda Borough area has appeared to ‘reduced’ in population, by that 1,817 figure. Accordingly, in the population growth figures in ppendi elow the census changes have een omitted. he relevant north oyne s are: Clogher, Dysart, Monasterboice, Mullary, St. Peter’s and Termonfeckin. South river the relevant EDs are: St. Mary’s, Ardcath, Duleek, Julianstown, Mellifont and Stamullin. It is noted that the St. eter and t. ary s are split into their respective orough and rural contents reflecting the pre oundary review position.
–
2
‘Table 7’
ote: In the CS Preliminary 201 Census esults the 2011 figure for St Peter’s Electoral District was reduced by 1,817 from that recorded in the Area olume for the earlier census from 0, to 28, 7 . The CS advise that this difference reflects a population and land area issue at the Preliminary census stage, which will be rectified in the final figures for the 201 census, when released in the spring of 2017. Accordingly, the Drogheda Borough area has appeared to ‘reduced’ in population, by that 1,817 figure. Accordingly, in the population growth figures in Appendi , below the 201 census changes have been omitted. The relevant
2 north Boyne EDs are: Clogher, Dysart, Monasterboice, Mullary, St. Peter’s and Termonfec in. South ri er the relevant EDs are: St. Mary’s, Ardcath, Duleek, Julianstown, Mellifont and Stamullin. It is noted that the St. Peter and St. ary EDs are split into their respecti e orough and rural contents reflecting the pre boundary re iew position.
e
T e a e la e e a a
e all la e
201 ensus Planning egions Populations T T al T al e
order 1 ,8 1 2 ,217 8, 2 1. 2
Dublin 1,27 ,0 1, 7, 7 ,2 0 .8
id East 1,087 , 7 28,88 .
idlands 282, 10 2 2, 01 ,8 1 . 0
id est 7 , 27 8 , 8 , 71 1. 0
South East 7, 78 10, 12,7 2. South est , 0, 7 2 ,0 1 . 2
est , ,10 7,7 1.7 otal State , 88,2 2 ,7 1,8 17 , 1 .78
Ireland’s East e e
In the consideration of Ireland’s growth contrasts this next Table focuses on the eight Planning egions so as to assess the east west population si e and growth in a north south di ide line fro oughal northward to appro i ately lones. his separates the order egion into its three eastern and three western counties but all of a an county included in the East order area .
27
a le East and est lann n e nal lat n r t rowth
Dublin , , , , , Mid East , , , Midlands , , , South East , , , East Border area , , , East tate
South est , , , Mid est , , , est , , , est Border area , , , est tate
tate Source: Brian ughes analysis of CS Census and CS Preliminary Data.
NOTE: The full Border Region’s corresponding population totals during 2011 and 2016 are: , in and , in 2016, resulting in an 8,326 growth which is 1.62% uplift for that region’s population growth. It is observed that all of Louth accounted for 71.9% of that region’s growth.
During the reater Dublin Area alone, com rising the Dublin and Mid East regions, contributed . of the total State growth. f note in the above data, is the contrasting east west erformance to State o ulation growth . versus . . The census also confirms a return to net in migration and thus revious intercensal growth rates can be ex ected to resume. or instance, in the State o ulation grew by , . and during it was u by a further , . . Thus, in the nine years to A ril , the State o ulation grew by , . above the level, as confirmed in these twenty first century censuses.
This analysis of the State’s 2011 o ulation growth of its eight lanning regions underlines the marked difference between the east and west lanning regions. In summary, the east ortion of State had . times the rate of growth com ared with the western ortion. f the absolute State growth of , , . occurred in the east with ust . in the west. This attern of o ulation distribution is re licated in an all island context wherein Maynooth town now marks a roximately the geogra hic centroid for the island of Ireland.
This focus on Ireland’s east west demogra hic growth differential erformance analysis in this A endix is detailed so as to cast attention on the need to com lement the State’s existing East Planning Regional cities, Dublin and aterford, by the inclusion of Drogheda BM in the north east area, com lementing the orthern Ireland initiative for strengthening the Dublin Belfast Corridor, where isburn and ewry as their two new cities, north of the Border. Effectively, the est of einster needs to consolidate along this Corridor and Drogheda BM is the rinci al, logical settlement focus in doing this.
end
The excessive ono centricity of ublin, with co parative cities of North western Europe, is noted in all and Pain 2006 , when related to its sphere of influence towns. s a conse uence, ublin related towns generally exhibit low levels of central place activity, Per hristaller 1933 . The following listing of Ireland’s 10,000 populated towns also shows their respective ayti e or ing Populations P and the percentage that their P represents to the atching populations, thus:
a le a t e r n lat n as es dent lat n t r t n and en r ns
ere l n t and s r s t
nd Ireland’s DWP e
or ity and suburbs 102,139 out of 208,869 8.90%
Li eric ity and suburbs ,62 out of 9 ,192 7.38%
alway ity and suburbs ,376 out of 79,93 . 2%
ater rd t and s r s t
r eda t
Swords 1 ,338 out of 39,2 8 39.08%
ndal t
Bray 8,763 out of 32,600 26.88%
a an n a t
il enny 13,738 out of 26, 62 1.72%
Ennis 10,171 out of 2 ,276 0.2 %
arlow 7,868 out of 2 ,272 32. 2%
Tralee 12, 17 out of 23,691 2,83%
roichead Nua 6, 26 out of 22, 72 29.0 %
Portlaoise 8, 10 out of 22,0 0 38.1 %
al r an t
Naas 10,999 out of 21,393 1. 1%
thlone 13,108 out of 21,3 9 61. 0%
ullingar 8,633 out of 20,928 1.2 %
elbridge 2,339 out of 20,288 11. 3%
exford 11,961 out of 20,188 9.2 %
Letter enny 11,39 out of 19,27 9.12%
29
s s
s
s
s
D s