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Shaping the Policy Priorities for Post-Conflict Reconstruction

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Shaping the Policy Priorities for Post-Conflict Reconstruction October 2007 O Volume 1 O Issue 5 PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL Policy Insight Shaping the Policy Priorities for Post-Conflict Reconstruction early 80 percent of all violent conflicts from Policy Insight examines one of the most pressing 1989 to 2002 can be categorized as internal issues in post-conflict reconstruction: how to pri- N 1 conflicts or civil wars. Most occurred in oritize and sequence political, social, and economic underdeveloped countries plagued by widespread policies to enable post-conflict countries to sustain insecurity, bad governance, illiteracy, poor health, peace and reduce the reoccurrence of violence. and the absence of basic infrastructure in transpor- Anga R. Timilsina, Ph.D. Doctoral Fellow tation and communications. Peace, once obtained Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Pardee RAND Graduate in these places, has proved difficult to sustain. Challenges and Opportunities School (September 2001–June 2007) Thirty-one percent of conflicts resume within 10 Peacekeeping operations that combine military, years of the initial ceasefire. African conflicts are political, and development roles may be more even more prone to reignite: Half of African peace effective than traditional peacekeeping operations. restorations last less than a decade.2 However, today’s multilateral, multisectoral, multi- In response, the United Nations (UN), the leveled, and multistaged interventions have created United States, and other international players new challenges in the governance and coordination revamped their approaches in the 1990s, expand- of the overlapping organizations involved in post- ing peace-building activities and adding “multi- conflict reconstruction. James Dobbins Director dimensional,” military-based peace enforcement Despite these challenges, there are some real RAND International Security and Defense to their traditional focus on humanitarian relief, opportunities for increasing the effectiveness of Policy Center infrastructure restoration, and political rehabilita- post-conflict reconstruction programs, and the tion.3 But the policy challenges are immense. This international community has demonstrated its willingness to engage in such efforts. Since 1989, Figure 1. Countries Emerging from and Experiencing the frequency, scale, scope, and duration of these Large-Scale Violence (1989–2004) missions have steadily risen. In the 40-year period from 1948 to 1988, the UN led 15 peacekeep- ing operations around the world; in the 10-year span from 1989 to 1999, however, that number jumped to 31.4 The United States, North Atlantic The Pardee RAND Graduate Treaty Organization (NATO), and the European School is a recognized leader in doctoral education Union (EU) have adapted to the new environment in policy analysis. Using a multidisciplinary approach, by increasing their responsibilities for peace and students and faculty examine security. Since 1989, on average, a new U.S.-led a wide range of policy issues, 5 including health, education, intervention has been launched every other year. Corruption in Post-War energy, public safety, and national SOURCE: Adapted from Large, D., ed., NATO has actively participated in the Balkans and international security. Reconstruction, Baabda, Lebanon: Lebanese Transparency Graduates pursue careers in Association, 2003. and Afghanistan; the EU has played a vital role universities, think tanks, public service, government, and the 1 Mikael Eriksson, Peter Wallensteen, and Margareta Sollenberg, “Armed Conflict 1989–2002,” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 40, No. 5, 2003, pp. 593–607. private sector. PRGS currently enrolls approximately 90 students, 2 Betty Bigombe, Paul Collier, and Nicholas Sambanis, “Policies for Building Post-Conflict Peace,” Journal of African Economies, Vol. 9, No. 3, 2000, drawn from more than 20 pp. 323–348. countries around the world. 3 The traditional model of peacekeeping operations focuses heavily on military tasks such as monitoring ceasefires and patrolling buffer zones between hostile parties. These operations are usually carried out by UN peacekeepers who may or may not be armed and who are widely known as “blue helmets” or “blue berets.” Multidimensional peacekeeping operations involve a range of activities including military, civilian police, political, civil affairs, rule of law, human rights, humani- tarian assistance, reconstruction, and public information. 4 United States Institute of Peace, “Peacekeeping in Africa,” Special Report 66, February 13, 2001. As of September 25, 2007: http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr66.html 5 James Dobbins, “NATO’s Role in Nation-Building,” NATO Review, Summer 2005. As of September 25, 2007: http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2005/issue2/english/art1.html Table 1. An Analytical Framework for Policy Prioritization Policies Consensus (or Near-Consensus) Context-Specific Factors Prerequisites Reforming security Security is a top priority in all Nature of peace agreement, A comprehensive reform plan; sector post-conflict environments and quality of existing security national ownership of reform institutions Downsizing military Resources, over time, shift to Existence of security threats Effective compensation and social sectors assistance packages Implementing land Transparency and accountability Extent to which land is a A competent and efficient legal reform are mandatory source of volatility system to handle land disputes Reconstructing Building civil service capacity What the preexisting situation An integrated package and a and reforming civil should start in the early phase and was like multiyear strategy for reform service continue Conducting elections Free, fair, and inclusive elections Whether elections are included Existence of important pre- are required in peace accord electoral conditions Implementing large- Planning should be a focus from Nature of devastation caused Improvement in security and scale development the very beginning; projects with by the conflict, and the exist- governance projects potential to secure or strengthen ing security environment peace should be implemented early Prioritizing macro- Controlling hyperinflation, solving The macroeconomic problems Sufficient budgetary support, economic policies exchange rate crises, and mobi- and prudent analysis of destabi- lizing revenues are immediate lizing effects of reform priorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and the focused and in what order should they be made? Democratic Republic of the Congo. The United Does the simultaneous introduction of political, Kingdom has played an important role in restoring economic, and security initiatives generate better peace and rebuilding Sierra Leone. results than sequencing these initiatives? Based on Maintaining and sustaining security is critical to RAND’s broader research on nation-building, we global and regional stability. Failed states can pro- conclude that how policies are prioritized and vide safe havens for a diverse array of transnational sequenced in the post-conflict reconstruction envi- threats, including epidemic diseases, terrorist net- ronment must be nonlinear, context dependent, works, global organized crime, and narcotics traf- and specific to the needs and requirements of fickers. Post-conflict reconstruction can no longer each country. Nevertheless, there are lessons from be viewed solely as “charity work” because it affects many cases of reconstruction that will help guide national and global security. policymakers in designing and implementing post- Most importantly, the cumulative effect of all conflict interventions. nation-building activities has been measurably beneficial. Several studies show that peacekeeping Lesson 1: Comprehensive security has proved to be the most cost-effective instru- sector reform is critical for establish- ment when compared with the costs of continued ing and sustaining peace. conflict and the toll in lives and economic devasta- Security and development are interdependent; i.e., tion such conflict entails. Although it is difficult to development fosters security and security fosters revitalize a failed state, the cost of doing nothing is development. But in the early stages of reconstruc- often higher.6 tion, security must be achieved first with the rec- ognition that if higher-order objectives are not met, Lessons Learned on Policy lower-order achievements will ultimately prove Prioritization and Sequencing transitory. Without a sustained improvement in the While there is general agreement about the cost- security situation, other reconstruction efforts, such effectiveness of international engagement in post- as relief efforts, political reforms, democratization, conflict countries, debates continue over the ques- economic reform, and reconstruction, are likely to tion of prioritization: Where should investments be fail. The resurgence of violence in East Timor in May 2006 (nearly seven years after the end of the conflict) is a strong case for making security a top 6 See Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, “The Challenge of Reducing the Global Incidence of Civil War,” Challenge Paper, Copenhagen, Denmark: priority whether a conflict resolution is a negotiated Copenhagen Consensus Center, March 26, 2004. As of September 25, 2007: http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Files/Filer/CC/Papers/Conflicts_ settlement (e.g., Cambodia and Mozambique), a 2 230404.pdf forced settlement (e.g., Afghanistan and Iraq), or the result of a successful independence movement concomitant reductions in staff and budgets for (e.g., East Timor, Kosovo). the military and civil service. These organizations Building
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