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The Howey Political Report Is Published by Newslink Have, but the Results Have Been Kept Close to the Vest

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The Howey Political Report Is Published by Newslink Have, but the Results Have Been Kept Close to the Vest Thursday, April 29, 2004 Volume 10, Number 36 Page 1 of 9 he Daniels expected to T win over Eric, but... Howey No polling in a state with an upset past By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis The gubernatorial race that wasn't – Mitch Daniels vs. Eric Miller – ends next Tuesday under the cloak of con- Political ventional wisdom. It was such a foregone conclusion that not a single Indiana news media outlet polled the GOP primary race, Report though Kernan vs. Daniels polling has taken place on several occasions since February. Certainly the two GOP campaigns The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink have, but the results have been kept close to the vest. Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is Daniels has repeatedly told the media and party an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the political process in Indiana. faithful that he would not fulfill the old Nixon game plan of running to the right in the primary, and to the center come Brian A. Howey, publisher fall. Instead, Daniels has taken his campaign for a “come- Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer back” to all Hoosiers and not just those on the right. Jack E. Howey, editor Eric Miller, it seems, hasn't been given any chance to win this primary. The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-968-0487 And yet, there have been some tell-tale signs that Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 have provided angst among some Republicans. While [email protected] Daniels’ TV media has been almost brilliant thus far this www.howeypolitics.com year, there was the Dick Lugar endorsement ad, which is something you normally see in the waning days of the fall Washington office: 202-775-3242; Business Office: 317-254-0535. campaign. It came before Miller began his ad campaign using two former octogenarian governors – Doc Bowen and Subscriptions: $350 annually via e-mail; Ed Whitcomb, two wrinkly, monotone voices from a faraway $550 annually including the HPR Daily era. Wire. Call 317-254-1533 or 254-0535. While the Daniels campaign behaved so much like © 2004, The Howey Political Report. All rights the “runaway freight train” HPR described late last summer, reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or for the first time this past week the frontrunner didn’t appear reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- to be hitting on all cylinders. He’s had to backtrack or tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without explain himself on two issues: whether he would reside in consent of the publisher. “I don’t believe that it’s an accident. What we Ticker Tape: Bayh’s veep fire drill p. 2 are seeing is the benefit of those decisions Horse Race: Primary prognosis p. 4 and those investments.” Hostettler heads to court p. 7 Columnists: Colwell, James p. 9 - Gov. Joe Kernan, reacting to U.S. Labor HPR Forum Will Feature Dr. Larry Sabato Department statistics showing 6,700 jobs created on Oct. 1 at the Downtown Marriott in Indiana in March Thursday, April 29, 2004 Page 2 of 9 the newly renovated governor’s mansion ed to win the primary. (Daniels says he will; Mrs. Daniels is not That the House Republican cau- so sure), and same-sex marriage. cus pushed a gay marriage ban in the leg- During last Thursday's WISH-TV islative session that concluded in March debate, Daniels came off somewhat tepid appeared to be an issue orchestrated by and he appeared to pander to Miller. Miller in his comfortable Statehouse war- POLL SHOWS SUPPORT Then, when the most emotional rens through the likes of State Reps. Dave FOR WAR SLIDING: A CBS Frizzell, Dennis Kruse, and Woody News/New York Times poll issue of the Republican fight – same sex Burton. Pulling Daniels into a “moderate” released Wednesday has marriage -- came up, Daniels aimed at the 47% saying the war was the center and not the right. “I'm very slow to trap was the second campaign stroke. right thing to do, down 11 condemn that behavior that I may not Getting Miller’s network of preachers to points from just last month. approve of in other people,” Daniels said. motivate the 200,000 last Sunday and this Also down sharply, to 41%, is a third stage, though most observers “And if there are rights that those who is public approval of don’t believe any grassroots campaign can choose an exclusive relationship would President Bush's handling deliver 200,000 votes. And should the like to have of a legal character, of a prac- of Iraq, his war leadership. Indiana Court of Appeals strike down His overall job-approval rat- tical nature, perhaps some accommodation Indiana's marriage law passed in 1997 in ing is now the lowest of his of that could be made.” the next three days, that could be the cat- Presidency: 46%. The poll Miller made no bones about his alytic event spurring a colossal upset, also had Sen. John Kerry position, saying that it was “absolutely though time is obviously running out on leading President Bush 46- imperative” that Indiana's Constitution be 44%. In a three way race, that front. amended to prohibit gay marriage and 43% would vote for Bush; civil unions. “Our society is built on the 41% would vote for Kerry; Social vs. economic 5% would vote for Ralph family,” Miller said. “Family is built on Nader; 2% said it depends; marriage, and marriage is one man and What has not been statistically 9% don't know. one woman.” It is the same issue that measured is a classic battle between the Daniels’ patrons -- Bush and Cheney -- social and economic conservative wings TIE IN RASMUSSEN will use in battleground rural counties in of the party. Daniels has tried to articulate TRACKING: A Rasmussen places such as Ohio, Michigan, the need for a “comeback” and a "new Reports poll of 1,500 likely Pennsylvania and West Virginia. crew" that will revive Indiana's economy. voters nationwide, conduct- On Saturday, the Daniels cam- He has spent little time on the hot button ed over April 24-26 (+/- 3%) issues of abortion and marriage. While using an automated polling paign seemed to be in a damage control Miller does have an ad decrying the eco- system, shows 45% would mode on the eve of a primary that tends to vote for George Bush; 45% bring out ideologues. The Indianapolis nomic impotence of the state – though would vote for John Kerry; Star reported the Daniels comments as a with a backdrop of children supplying the 4% would vote for another “fuss,” and quoted Curt Smith, president visual images – his main thrust has been candidate; 5% were not of the Indiana Family Institute, saying, on the marriage issue using a young cou- sure. “Mitch was simply trying to be compas- ple doing yard work with the woman say- sionate.” Smith acknowledged that “a ing, “We believe marriage should be 10 AMERICANS KILLED: between a man and a woman.” Ten American GIs were word of assurance that it wasn't a new killed in Iraq over the past position” was needed from Daniels. 24 hours (NBC News). Miller's campaign accused It's happened in Indiana before Daniels of "wavering" on the issue. Primary upsets where social con- BAYH, JOHNSON SEEN It was just the kind of opening servatives outflanked their economic TOGETHER DURING FIRE that Miller can be expected to exploit brothers have happened before in Indiana. DRILL: Last week, the word from the multitude of pulpits in his In 1992, the 4th CD Republican establish- swept through Washington: Advance America network of churches ment anointed a young college student, During a fire drill, Sen. Evan Bayh was seen leav- this weekend. For two years, Miller has Phil Troyer, for the right to challenge then maintained that his Christian right follow- U.S. Rep. Jill Long. While Troyer finished Continued on page 3 ing could turn out the 200,000 votes need- his exams down in Bloomington, a Page 3 of 9 Thursday, April 29, 2004 LaGrange County businessman named Mitch is committed to social issues. He Chuck Pierson spent months at gun and might be even more committed to (eco- knife shows and pulled off a stunning nomic) issues, but that doesn't bother upset. So mind-boggling was that upset me.” that it set into motion the voluntary retire- Terre Haute attorney Jim Bopp Jr. ment of Fort Wayne Republican boss is another, telling the Star, “I just don't Orvas Beers. think Eric can be successful” in Novem- ing his office building Two years later, a 33-year-old ber. U.S. Rep. Mike Pence is backing alongside Jim Johnson, the Wadesville engineer named John Daniels. Indiana Right to Life endorsed man charged with helping Hostettler, who had never sought office both Miller and Daniels. Radio commen- Sen. John F. Kerry pick his before, won the 8th CD Republican pri- tator Greg Garrison and Micah Clark of running mate (Mark Barabak, Los Angeles mary against five opponents using the the American Family Association have Times). Their appearance — very same network that Miller claims to stayed neutral, though Garrison gave the two smoked out, as it have: Right to Life, churches, home Miller air time this week (and Daniels on were — was immediately schoolers, and gun lovers. The same thing Wednesday). taken as a sign that Bayh, happened that year in the 4th CD where a Conservative State Rep. Eric an Indiana Democrat, had young Mark Souder won a crowded GOP Turner told the Star, “I would feel com- landed on Kerry's short list primary, defeating a favored centrist fortable passing an anti-gay marriage of vice presidential Republican in a six-candidate field, gath- amendment and sending it to Mitch as prospects.
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