Carrefour 15Th November 2017 Standing at a Cross-Roads Food Retailing Fair Value EUR20 Vs
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INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Carrefour 15th November 2017 Standing at a cross-roads Food retailing Fair Value EUR20 vs. EUR22 (price EUR16.83) BUY Bloomberg CA FP France is the group’s Achilles heel and Alexandre Bompard is set to Reuters CARR.PA unveil his solutions on January 23th. At this stage, the combination of a 12-month High / Low (EUR) 23.6 / 16.5 positive timing (return to inflation?), a depressed valuation (the market Market capitalisation (EURm) 13,034 Enterprise Value (BG estimates EURm) 16,343 is valuing the French hypermarkets at a negative €3.4bn) and an event- Avg. 6m daily volume ('000 shares) 3 583 driven momentum underpin our maintained Buy opinion. Our Fair Free Float 83.4% Value (€20 vs €22) is the average of a DCF (€17.6) and a SOP (€22.5). 3y EPS CAGR -6.2% Gearing (12/16) 38% Dividend yields (12/17e) 3.43% Although the group is crippled, Carrefour’s market capitalisation does not reflect the value of its assets in our view. Based on the SOP, which enables YE December 12/16 12/17e 12/18e 12/19e Revenue (EURm) 76,645 78,813 79,950 82,493 us to appreciate the asset liquidating market value, we derive an estimated Curr Op Inc. 2,351 2,010 2,070 2,197 share price of €22.5. At the current level of €17, we conclude that the EURm) market is valuing the French hypermarkets at a negative €3.4bn. Basic EPS (EUR) 1.01 0.93 1.05 1.15 Diluted EPS (EUR) 1.40 1.06 1.05 1.15 EV/Sales 0.22x 0.21x 0.22x 0.22x Alexandre Bompard’s task is focused on the price positioning/future of EV/EBITDA 4.4x 4.5x 4.8x 4.6x EV/EBIT 8.5x 8.8x 8.5x 8.1x the hypermarkets in France (embroiled in the Leclerc trap), the re- P/E 12.0x 15.9x 16.1x 14.6x definition of the offer (too premium currently?) and the digitalisation of ROCE 8.7 7.6 7.5 7.7 the group (lost in the Amazonian forest). Lauded for his stock market 29.6 success at FNAC, he has a free rein in our view. 27.6 25.6 In France, beyond remodeling the promotional strategy, we see an 23.6 immediate need for some €400m of price investment together with a 6% 21.6 reduction in the fixed cost base (i.e. €330m) to stop the hemorrhaging of 19.6 market share. We believe that, over the medium term, an operating margin 17.6 of 2.4% is reachable (vs 1.9%e in 2017). 15.6 13/05/16 13/08/16 13/11/16 13/02/17 13/05/17 13/08/17 13/11/17 CARREFOUR SXX EUROPE 600 The timing of this fourth recovery attempt (!) could prove opportune in that inflation seems to be returning, and it could further be supported by a potential increase in the Below-Cost Selling threshold (SRP - Seuil de Revente à Perte). Judging by the knee-jerk reaction from its CEO, any such move would be detrimental to Leclerc and thus positive for Carrefour. Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Antoine Parison Nikolaas Faes 33(0) 1 70 36 57 03 Loïc Morvan [email protected] Virginie Roumage Cedric Rossi r r Carrefour Simplified Profit & Loss Account (EURm) 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e Revenues 74,706 76,945 76,645 78,813 79,950 82,493 Change (%) -0.2% 3.0% -0.4% 2.8% 1.4% 3.2% EBITDA 3,768 3,914 3,838 3,608 3,669 3,847 Current operating income 2,387 2,444 2,351 2,010 2,070 2,197 Exceptionals 149 (257) (372) (150) 0.0 0.0 EBIT 2,536 2,187 1,979 1,860 2,070 2,197 Change (%) 6.5% -13.8% -9.5% -6.0% 11.2% 6.2% Financial results (563) (515) (515) (439) (450) (450) PBT 1,973 1,672 1,464 1,421 1,620 1,747 Tax (709) (597) (494) (508) (567) (612) Profits from associates 36.0 44.0 (36.0) 12.0 30.0 40.0 Income from discontinued activities 67.0 4.0 (40.0) (1.0) 0.0 0.0 Minority interests (118) (143) (148) (220) (291) (306) Net profit / group share 1,249 980 746 704 792 870 Restated net profit 1,040 1,113 1,032 802 792 870 Change (%) 11.1% 7.0% -7.2% -22.4% -1.2% 9.9% Cash Flow Statement (EURm) Operating cash flows 2,127 2,181 2,473 2,463 2,605 2,739 Capex, net (2,411) (2,378) (2,749) (2,450) (2,399) (2,475) Change in working capital 8.0 106 658 161 84.2 188 FCF (276) (91.0) 382 173 290 452 Financial investments (1,188) (85.0) (190) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends (219) (488) (207) (236) (488) (483) Capital increase / buyback (18.0) 384 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Assets disposal 702 205 178 1,113 0.0 0.0 Other 161 484 (178) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Decrease / (Increase) in net debt (838) 409 15.0 1,050 (197) (30.6) Net debt 4,955 4,546 4,531 3,481 3,678 3,709 Company description Balance Sheet (EURm) Carrefour is a multi-local (France, Tangible fixed assets 13,587 13,085 14,672 15,524 16,324 17,149 Europe, Latam and Asia) and multi- Intangibles assets 8,228 8,495 8,640 7,527 7,527 7,527 Cash & equivalents 3,162 2,790 3,335 4,385 4,188 4,157 format (mainly hypermarkets but also Other assets 20,812 20,725 22,198 22,485 22,659 23,022 supermarkets, C&C and proximity) Total assets 45,789 45,095 48,845 49,922 50,698 51,855 operator. It was the pioneer in many Shareholders' funds 10,228 10,672 12,008 12,775 13,449 14,221 countries such as Brazil (1975) and L & ST Debt 8,572 7,628 8,075 8,075 8,075 8,075 Provisions 3,581 3,014 3,064 2,938 2,812 2,686 China in (1995). It is the leading Others liabilities 23,408 23,768 25,659 26,134 26,362 26,873 retailer in Europe , employing nearly Total Liabilities 45,789 45,082 48,806 49,922 50,698 51,855 380,000 people. With more than WCR (4,911) (5,017) (5,675) (5,836) (5,920) (6,108) 11,900 stores under banner, it Capital employed 16,904 16,563 17,637 17,216 17,931 18,568 generated net revenues of €77 bn in Ratios 2016. Operating margin 3.20 3.18 3.07 2.55 2.59 2.66 Tax rate 35.94 35.71 33.74 35.75 35.00 35.00 Normative tax rate 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 Net margin 1.39 1.45 1.35 1.02 0.99 1.05 ROCE (after tax) 9.18 9.59 8.66 7.59 7.50 7.69 WACC 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 Gearing 48.45 42.60 37.73 27.24 27.35 26.08 Net debt / EBITDA 1.32 1.16 1.18 0.96 1.00 0.96 Pay out ratio 39.65 39.24 52.02 61.93 62.27 63.57 Number of shares, diluted 707 723 739 756 756 756 Data per Share (EUR) EPS 1.77 1.35 1.01 0.93 1.05 1.15 Restated EPS 1.47 1.54 1.40 1.06 1.05 1.15 % change 9.2% 4.7% -9.2% -24.1% -1.2% 9.9% Operating cash flows 3.01 3.02 3.35 3.26 3.45 3.62 FCF (0.39) (0.13) 0.52 0.23 0.38 0.60 Net dividend 0.70 0.53 0.53 0.58 0.65 0.73 Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. 2 Carrefour Table of contents 1. A valuation which is too low and event-driven momentum ............................................ 4 1.1. Carrefour’s balance sheet bears no comparison with 2012 .......................................... 4 1.2. At €17, the hypermarket valuation is a negative €3.4bn ............................................... 4 2. The parameters of a fourth (!) recovery attempt .............................................................. 7 2.1. Decline of the large hypermarkets and disruption from Amazon .............................. 7 2.2. Price war and promotional activity ................................................................................... 9 2.3. Premiumisation or squaring the circle ........................................................................... 11 3. Surgical measures ........................................................................................................... 14 3.1. €400m of price investment in France, accompanied by cost savings ...................... 14 3.2. Unprecedented measures and a revised decision-making paradigm ........................ 15 3.3. Possible disposal of international assets........................................................................ 17 4. Potentially positive timing? ............................................................................................ 18 4.1. Inflation is rearing its head .............................................................................................. 18 4.2. An increase in the BCS threshold, the details of which remain hazy, could benefit Carrefour 19 Bryan Garnier stock rating system ...................................................................................... 23 3 Carrefour 1. A valuation which is too low and event-driven momentum 1.1. Carrefour’s balance sheet bears no comparison with 2012 It is perhaps possible to ‘compare’ the present operating situation with that of 2012. The hypermarket issue effectively remains unresolved while Carrefour looks to be lagging seriously behind on digitalisation. Against this backdrop, the group’s market share is down in France, for both the hypermarkets (-80bps over the Kantar P10 period vs.