WDP37 August 1988

Public Disclosure Authorized WDP37 August 1988

3 7 UWorld Bank DiscussionPapers IncomeDistribution and Public Disclosure Authorized EconomicDevelopment in Madagascar

SomeHistorical Statistics Public Disclosure Authorized

Frederic L. Pryor

FILECOPY

7N3 HC 895

Public Disclosure Authorized ,P78 1988 c.3 RECENT WORLD BANK DISCUSSION PAPERS

No. 1. Public Enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa. Jonn R. Nellis

No. 2. Raising School Quality in Developing Countries: What Investments Boost Learning? Bruce Fuller

No. 3. A System for Evaluating the Performance of Government-Invested Enterprises in the Republic of Korea. Young C. Park

No. 4. Country Commitment to Development Projects. Richard Heaver and Arturo Israel

No. 5. Public Expenditure in Latin America: Effects on Poverty. Guy P. Pfeffermann

No. 6. Community Participation in Development Projects: The World Bank Experience. Samuel Paul

No. 7. International Financial Flows to Brazil since the Late 1960s: An Analysis of Debt Expansion and Payments Problems. Paulo Nogueira Batista, Jr.

No. 8. Macroeconomic Policies, Debt Accumulation, and Adjustment in Brazil, 1965-84. Celso L. Martone

No. 9. The Safe Motherhood Initiative: Proposals for Action. Barbara Herz and Anthony R. Measham [Also available in French (9F) and Spanish (9S)]

No. 10. Improving Urban Employment and Labor Productivity. Friedrich Kahnert

No. 11. Divestiture in Developing Countries. Elliot Berg and Mary M. Shirley

No. 12. Economic Growth and the Returns to Investment. Dennis Anderson

No. 13. Institutional Development and Technical Assistance in Macroeconomic Policy Formulation: A Case Study of Togo. Sven B. Kjellstrom and Ayite-Fily d'Almeida

No. 14. Managing Economic Policy Change: Institutional Dimensions. Geoffrey Lamb

No. 15. Dairy Development and Milk Cooperatives: The Effects of a Dairy Project in India. George Mergos and Roger Slade

No. 16. Macroeconomic Policies and Adjustment in Yugoslavia: Some Counterfactual Simulations. Fahrettin Yagci and Steven Kamin

No. 17. Private Enterprise in Africa: Creating a Better Environment. Keith Marsden and Therese Belot

No. 18. Rural Water Supply and Sanitation: Time for a Change. Anthony A. Churchill, with the assistance of David de Ferranti, Robert Roche, Carolyn Tager, Alan A. Walters, and Anthony Yazer

(Continued on the inside back cover.) World Bank Comparative Studies THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF POVERTY, EQUITY, AND GROWTH Research Paper Number 2

37 KS World Bank Discussion Papers hicomeDistribution and EconomicDevelopment in Madagascar

SomeHistorical Statistics

Frederic L. Pryor

INTEKNA1I(lAL MUNL -i.. rUND JOINT LIBRARY

CW. j' ( 1988

INTERNATIONAL BANK IW RECONSTRUICTION AND LEVLOPMBEN WASHINGTON, D3.C 201

Discussion Papers are not formal publications of the World Bank. They present preliminary and unpolished results of country analysis or research that is circulated to encourage discussion and comment; citation and the use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Any maps that accompany the text have been prepared solely for the convenience of readers; the designations and presentation of material in them do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank, its affiliates, or its Board or member countries concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area or of the authorities thereof or conceming the delimitation of its boundaries or its national affiliation. Because of the informality and to present the results of research with the least possible delay, the typescript has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to Director, Publications Department at the address shown in the copyright notice above. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to photocopy portions for classroom use is not required, though notification of such use having been made will be appreciated. The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank is shown in the annual Index ofPublications,which contains an alphabetical title list and indexes of subjects, authors, and countries and regions; it is of value principally to libraries and institutional purchasers. The latest edition of each of these is available free of charge from Publications Sales Unit, Department F, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66, avenue d'1ena, 75116 Paris, France.

Frederic L. Pryor, a consultant to the World Bank, is a professor of economics at Swarthmore College.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Pryor, Frederic L. Income distributionand economicdevelopment in Madagascar some historicalstatistics / FredericL. Pryor. p. cm. -- (World Bank discussionpapers ; 37) ISBN 0-8213-1086-0 1. Madagascar--Economicconditions--Statistics. 2. Income distribution--Madagascar--Statistics.3. Madagascar--Statistics. I. Title. II. Series. HC895.P781988 330.969'1--dcl9 88-17242 CIP iii

Abstract

This discussion paper covers important economic statistics of Madagascar from the 1950's through 1986. It also discusses the various data sources, analyzes particular data problems, and presents a number of new estimates. Topics include land usage, population and labor force, agriculture,manufacturing, national accounts, foreign trade, price and exchange rates, wages, distribution of family income, education and health, government expenditures and finance, and other financial statistics.

Foreword

This is the second research publication of the World Bank Comparative

Study on the Political Economy of Poverty, Equity, and Growth. The first in the series is a parallel paper containing historical statistics on growth and income distributionfor Malawi.

The entire project, which focuses on 21 countries, has several purposes.

For each country a monograph is being written which outlines the major forces underlying the country's performance with regard to the three themes in the project title. For some of the countries, relevant statistics and studies are readily available and the major task is to interpret events which have received considerabledocumentation. For other countries such as Madagascar,which have not received a great deal of attentionin the literature on economic development, it has been necessary to create a data base before the research can be completed. For still other countries, special analyses of particular policies or events must be carried out.

This research paper presents a data base for the economy of Madagascar. It draws not only upon the various official publications of Madagascar and data from World Bank reports, but also hitherto unpublished reports of the Malagasy government. In writing this paper the author also discussed a number of statistical issues with responsible governmental authorities in Madagascar, although the government is not responsible for the use which the author has made of its data. In certain cases such as the resolution of discrepenciesin various data series, the government of Madagascar provided no explanation.

Deepak Lal lilaMyint George Psacharopoulos Project Directors

vii

Table of Contents Page

A. Land I B. Population and Labor Force 5 C. Agriculture 11 D. Manufacturing 16 E. Aggregate Production 19 F. Foreign Trade and the Balance of Payments 27 C. Price and Exchange Rates 35 H. Labor Force and Wages in the Modern Sector 39 I. The Distribution of Family Income 43 J. Education and Health 55 K. The Government Sector 64 L. Money, Finance and Savings 72

Table of Tables

A-1: Land Usage I A-2: Estimated Annual Planted Area of Major Crops 2 A-3: Rural Population and Land Usage by Province in 1975 3 A-4: The Size Distribution of Land Holdings in 1961/62 4 B-1: The Population and Labor Force 6 B-2: Population by Age Group, Selected Years 7 B-3: Labor Force by Age Group, Selected Years 8 B-4: The Urban-Rural Distribution of the Population 9 B-5: The Regional Distribution of the Population 10 C-1: Indicators of Agricultural Producer Prices 13 C-2: Miscellaneous Agricultural Price and Marketing Data 15 D-1: Indexes of Manufacturing Production 17 E-la: GDP and Components in Current Market Prices: Production 20 E-lb: GDP End Use in Current Market Prices 22 E-2: GDP and Components in Constant 1970 Quasi-Factor Prices 23 F-1: Exports, Imports, and Trade Price Series 30 F-2: Export Aggregates in Current Prices 31 F-3: Import Aggregates in Current Prices 32 F-4a: The Balance of Payments: Current Accounts 33 F-4b: The Balance of Payments: Capital and Foreign Asset Accounts 34 G-1: GDP Deflator and Retail Price Series 35 G-2: Exchange Rate Indicators 37 H-1: The Labor Force and Wages in the "Modern Sector" 40 H-2: The Evolution of the minimum Hourly Wage (SMIG) 41 H-3: Registered Urban Unemployment 42 I-1: Unadjusted Rural Incomes in 1962 43 I-2: Unadjusted 1962 Data on Family Income in the Six Large Cities 44 I-3: Total Family Income 47 I-4: Income Distribution: All Sectors, 1962 48 I-5: Estimated Income Distribution by Declines, 1962 and 1980 48 I-6: Income Inequality Statistics 49 I-7: Unadjusted Data on Family Incomes, 1980 51 I-8: Estimated Income Distribution: All Sectors, 1980 53

Table of tables continued. viii

Table of tables continued:

J-1: Estimates of Illiteracyin 1966 55 J-2: Students and EnrollmentRatios 56 J-3: UndernutritionData 60 J-4: Health Personnel 62 J-5: Hospital Beds 63 K-1: Overall Financial Balances of the Central Government 65 K-2: Revenues of the Central Government 66 K-3a: Expendituresof the Central Governmentby Economic Category 67 K-3b: Expendituresof the Central Government and Provincial Government 69 by Function K-4: Employment in the Public Sector in 1977 70 L-1: The Money Supply 72 L-2: Assets of the Financial System 74 L-3a: The Discount Rate 75 L-3b: The Structure of Interest Rates 75 L-4: Investment and Savings ix

Introduction

Economic analysis of many African countries is difficult because basic statistical sources are often not readily available to those outside these nations. This research paper on Malagasy historical statistics is an attempt to provide such statistics to a larger audience for one of these nations.

For each of the series presented below I have tried to provide relatively complete documentation. In a number of cases I have also explained certain definitions employed or commented on paricular problems. In some cases the series are incompleteand I have not hesitated to make estimates, explaining in detail the procedures involved. If the reader is dissatisfiedwith my estimation methods, sufficient data are usually supplied so that alternative estimates can be made.

Most abbreviationsare designated in the text. INSRE stands for Institut national de la statistiqueet de la recherche 6conomique; it was later renamed the Banque des donnees de l1'tat and is the official statistical agency. The currency of Madagascar is the franc and is designated FMG. GDP means gross domestic product. A "billion" is a thousand million; periods and commas in the numbers are used according to the World Bank convention.

For assistance I would like to thank officials of the Direction g6n6rale du plan and the Banque des donnees de l'etat. They are not, however, responsible for the use which I have made of their data.

A. Land

1. Land Usage

The data on land usage presented in Table A-1 are very uncertain. In the published materials no methods of calculation are given and the degree of comparability from year to year is quite uncertain. The variations shown in the table for forests and pasture land give rise to doubts; and the declining estimates of potentially arable land also seem strange.

Data for 1960 come from: Commissariatg6n6ral au plan, Economie malgache:

Evolution 1950 _ 1960 (Antananarivo:June 1963), pp.65, 73. For 1968 the data come from Ministere du developpement rural et de la reform agraire,

Statistique agricole. 1970 (Antananarivo:n.d.), pp. 17-8; in subsequent issues of the same publications,these data were updated in some unspecified manner. The data for 1978 come from: Ministere du d6veloppementrural et de la r6forme agraire (MPARA), L'agriculture malgache en chiffres (Antananarivo: n.d.). The 1985 datum is the sum of total area in production of smallholders

Table A-1: Land Usage-4/ (1000 hectares)

1960 1968 1978 1985

Total land area 59,400 58,704 58,704 58,704

Arable land 2,730 2,856 2,247 2,044 Irrigated land 610 Annual crops: dry 780 1,847 Tree cultivation 275 Fallow land 1,065 Pasture land 34,000 34,000 25,052 Forests 12,470 12,470 17,471 Rivers, lakes 550 550 550 Non-cultivated(potentially arable) 5,650 5,524 Non-cultivableand other 4,000 3,304 13,384

a. Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 2

and large farms which is planted and comes from MPARA, Premiers resultats

Rrovisoires du recensementnational de l'agricultureet des enguetes connexes

(Antananarivo:January 1986).

Another set of relevant data are the annual estimates of land usage for

major crops, which are presented in Table A-2. The data from 1964 through

1985 cover 20 crops; for earlier years data are available only for four major

crops so that adjustmentshad to be made on the basis the assumption that the

four crops constituted a constant proportion of total planted area.

Comparisonsof Table A-2 with A-1 yield considerablediscrepancies: the former

shows a crop area roughly 20 percent lower the latter in 1960, but 20 percent higher in 1985.

For Table A-2 I have drawn for the most part upon unpublished data

supplied by the Direction generale du plan (DGP), supplementedby information

from: DGP, Donn6es de base sur la soci6t6 et 1'economiede Madagascar. 1950 _

1975, Version preliminaire (Antananarivo:1976) and Minister of Finance and

Planning, Basic Social and Economic Data on Madagascar. 1950 - 1975. Technical

Studies, Document 001 (Antananarivo:1976).

Table A-2: EstimatedAnnual Planted Area of Major Crops--a/ (1000 hectares)

1950 1,120 1960 1,381 1970 1,662 1980 2,204 1951 1,265 1961 1,430 1971 1,693 1981 2,220 1952 1,305 1962 1,439 1972 1,845 1982 2,249 1953 1,346 1963 1,428 1973 1,962 1983 2,294 1954 1,329 1964 1,515 1974 2,067 1984 2,326 1955 1,387 1965 1,538 1975 1,967 1985 2,339 1956 1,394 1966 1,635 1976 2,052 1957 1,393 1966 1,651 1977 2,108 1958 1,416 1968 1,656 1978 2,140 1959 1,397 1969 1,676 1979 2,153

a. The estimates for 1950 through 1963 are rather uncertain. Sources and methods are described in the text. 3

Table A-3 presents some estimates of total potentially arable land by province. These data come from: Direction generale du plan, Premier Rlan. 1978

1980 (Antananarivo:Imprimerie nationale, 1978), p. 30. Unfortunately,this source does not designatehow the estimateswere made.

2. Distributionof Land Holdings

Table A-4 presents a size distributionof holdings for 1961/62 from a national sample and are taken from Ministere des finances et du commerce,

Enguete agricole (Antananarivo:Imprimerie nationale, 1966), p. 61. Few details on definitionsare given so that many uncertaintiesabout the meaning of the data arise. It appears that only land which is actually farmed by smallholders is included. It further seems that only smallholdersunder a certain size are included.These factors might account for the fact that the area included amounts to only 64 percent of the estimatedplanted area (Table

A-2) and 66 percent of the total irrigated land or dry land used for annual crops in 1960 (Table A-1).

The data underlying Table A-4 were originally presented in the form of percentages;I have converted into absolute amounts.The fact that the average size holding for the size class 4.50 - 4.99 hectares is 5.71 hectares is

Table A-3: Rural Population and Land Usage by Province in 1975--a/

Province Population(thousand) Land area (1000hectares) Total Rural Total Potentiallyarable

Antananarivo 2332.0 1745.6 5,755.6 983.4 Antseranana 626.0 523.7 4,343.3 1,033.8 Fianarantsoa 1933.0 1794.4 10,085.5 1,414.1 Mahajanga 870.0 747.1 15,239.0 1,693.9 Toamasina 1267.0 1145.1 7,106.2 1,384.9 Toliary 1133.0 1026.4 16,429.0 1,337.5

Total 8161.0 6982.2 58,958.6 7,852.6 a. Sources are discussedin the text. 4 undoubtedly due to roundoff error of the percentage data. If this class contained 0.24 percent (rather than 0.2 percent) of the families and if they had occupied 1.05 percent (rather than 1.1 percent) of the land, the average size would 4.54 hectares.

Undoubtedly much better data on the size distribution of smallholders will be available from the 1984/85 agricultural census. At the time of writing, however, these estimateshave not yet been released.

Table A-4: Size Distributionof Land Holding in 1961/62-a/

Farm size Number of Total area Average (hectares) holdings (hectares) size (hectares)

<0.50 300,008 87,083 0.29 0.50 - 0.99 260,301 187,915 0.72 Gini coefficient 0.445 1.00 - 1.49 142,945 174,165 1.22 Log variance 0.646 1.50 - 1.99 75,884 131,082 1.73 Theil coefficient 0.360 2.00 - 2.49 39,707 87,083 2.19 2.50 - 2.99 21,177 56,833 2.68 3.00 - 3.49 14,118 45,833 3.25 3.50 - 3.99 7,941 28,416 3.58 4.00 - 4.49 9,706 40,333 4.16 4.59 - 4.99 1,765 10,083 5.71 5.00 and over 8,824 67,833 7.69

882,376 916,659 1.04

a. Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 5

B. Populationand Labor Force

1. Sources

In the major population areas the governmenttakes annual "administrative censuses." These data are not, however, very reliable and the individual series for particular cities or areas show alarming discontinuitiesfrom year to year. A brief historical survey of these administrativecensuses is found in: Vincent AndrianariveloRafrezy and Iarivony Randratsa, PoRulation de

Madagascar: Situation actuelle et perspectives d'avenir (Antananarivo:

Ministere de la recherche scientifiqueet technologiquepour le developpement,

January 1985).

A sample survey type of census was taken in 1966 and the results are presented and analyzed in: Ministere des finances et du commerce, INSRE,

Engugte d6mograRhique: Madagascar 1966 (Antananarivo: August 1977). The results of the full census for 1975 are presented in five booklets of which I have drawn primarily on: Minist&re aupres de la presidencecharg6 des finances et du plan and INSRE, Analyse des donn6es d6mozraphigues:Recensement 1975.

Serie 6tudes et analyse (Antananarivo:n.d.).

2. PoDulation

Data for populationare presented in Tables B-1 and B-2. For the total population in years previous to 1966 I draw primarily upon two sources with very similar estimates: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,

World PoDulation.1983 (Washington,D.C.: G.P.O., 1983), p. 113; and Enquete,

p., cit., p. 125. The latter source presents age distributionsby five year intervals,with the 1966 distributioncorrected for various distortions. For

1975 I use the census with the uncorrectedage distribution;and for 1984 I use the INSRE age distributionestimates published by the World Bank, The

Democratic Republic gf Madagascar:Country EconomicMemorandum, Report No. 6

Table B-1: The Population and Labor Force-a/ (Data in 1000's)

Year Estimated Estimated labor force de facto 10 and over 15 and over population

1950 4620 2652 2448 1951 4691 2577 2371 1952 4767 2603 2394 1953 4845 2629 2417 1954 4922 2653 2438 1955 5003 2679 2462 1956 5090 2708 2489 1957 5184 2741 2515 1958 5282 2774 2542 1959 5380 2805 2567 1960 5481 2838 2593 1961 5590 2876 2624 1962 5705 2922 2657 1963 5824 2969 2691 1964 5946 3018 2725 1965 6071 3068 2760 1966 6200 3119 2795 1967 6339 3194 2865 1968 6483 3271 2937 1969 6631 3351 3010 1970 6782 3432 3086 1971 6937 3516 3163 1972 7095 3602 3243 1973 7258 3690 3325 1974 7425 3780 3409 1975 7604 3873 3496 1976 7805 3976 3588 1977 8021 4082 3682 1978 8244 4191 3779 1979 8472 4303 3879 1980 8707 4417 3981 1981 8948 4535 4086 1982 9196 4656 4194 1983 9451 4781 4305 1984 9713 4908 4418 1985 9983 5039 4535 1986 10260 5174 4655

a. Sources and methods are described in the text. 7

5996-MAG (Washington,D.C.: March 1986), p. 102. Between the benchmark dates,

I derive the estimateswith exponentialinterpolations.

It must be emphasizedthat the populationestimates are quite different from the administrativecensuses (cited by Rafrezy and Randratsa, °Fw cit.., p. 20) which estimate the January 1950 population as 4,143 thousand and the

January 1960 populationas 5,193 thousand.The administrativecensus data are cited in a number of official Malagasy publicationswithout any indication of their source or their weaknesses.

3. Labor Force

Data on the estimated labor force are presented in Table B-1 and, for major age groups, in Table B-3. Data on the participationratio for various age groups are only given in Enquete, op. cit., and only for ages 15 and above. I use these ratios for all years. Alternative estimates of the participationratios for 1975 are providedby the InternationalLabour Office,

Labor Force Estimatesand Projections,2nd edition (Geneva: 1977); however, it is quite unclear how they arrived at these estimes and, given the problems of the 1966 estimatesI saw little use in compoundingthe uncertainties.I have,

Table B-2: Populationby Age Group, SelectedYears--a/ (Data in thousands)

Men Women 0 - 14 15 - 64 65 and 0 - 14 15 - 64 65 and over over

1950 878 1255 102 922 1354 110 1960 1188 1380 113 1179 1500 121 1966 (census) 1434 1496 119 1397 1625 129 1970 1553 1680 131 1509 1778 132 1975 (census) 1715 1943 147 1661 1992 137 1980 1977 2209 166 1928 2278 149

a. Sources and methods are describedin the text. 8 however, used their estimates of 44 percent and 40 percent for the participationratio of male and female children from 10 to 14.9 years old.

4. Urban-Ruraland Regional PoRulationDistribution

According to Rafrezy and Randratsa, oR, cit., p. 28, an urban center is defined as an agglomerationwhich presents an "urban cohesion,"which disposes of resources necessary for a governmentalbudget for the area, which has some

type of urbanizationplan, and which has at least 4000 inhabitants (in other places this is cited as 5000 inhabitants). Despite this relatively clear definition, considerableproblems arise in estimatingurban population because of suburbanization. For instance, unpublished data from the Banque des donnees de l'etat for 1985 show 1,553 thousand living in the seven largest cities, with another 884 thousand living in the counties (Fivondronana)or suburbs surrounding these urban areas. It is unclear how many of these areas are included in the published estimates of urban centers.

For total urbanization the estimates in Table B-4 for 1950 and 1960 come from Rafrezy and Randretsa, R_, cit., p. 31. For later years I made the estimates with INSRE estimates cited in World Bank, Madagascar: Recent

Economic Developmentsand Future ProsRects, (Washington,D.C.: November 1980),

Table B-3: Labor Force by Age Group, Selected Years--/ (Data in thousands)

Men Wome 0 - 14 15 - 64 65 and 0 - 14 15 - 64 65 and over over

1950 105 1136 87 99 1072 51 1960 125 1132 96 120 1176 56 1966 (census) 172 1184 101 151 1247 59 1970 185 1332 111 161 1357 61 1975 (census) 203 1545 125 174 1511 63 1980 234 1751 141 202 1721 69

a. Sources and methods are described in the text of the appendix. 9 p. 69 and then used interpolationmethods, taking advantageof more continuous series for the populationin the seven largest cities.

The data for the seven largest cities come from several sources: Minister of Finance and Planning, Basic Social and Economic Data on Madagascar.

Technical Studies, Document 001 (May 1977); Direction gAn&rale du plan, Don- noes de base sur la soci6t6 et l1'conomiede Madagascar.1950 _ 1975: Version or6liminaire(Antananarivo: 1976); Analyse des donn6es demographiques:Recen- sement 1975, op. cit. p. 11-2; and for 1986 from data supplied by Banque de donn6es d'6tat. In certain cases these series for individualcities have been smoothed. My estimates of urbanization in 1985, while higher than those of others, may be understatedbecause some of those living in the suburbs are not included.

The regional data presented in Table B-5 come from the 1975 census analysis cited above and also from the 1966 Enguete.

Table B-4: The Urban-RuralDistribution of the Population-a/ (Data in thousands)

Year Total Urban RoRulation Rural RoRulation population Total Seven largest cities

1950 4,620 378 316 4,197 1960 5,481 588 457 4,871 1966 (census) 6,200 780 575 5,420 1970 6,782 1,106 667 5,676 1975 (census) 7,604 1,239 828 6,364 1980 8,707 1,733 1116 6,974 1985 9,983 2,396 1504 7,587

a. The seven largest cities are: Antananarivo,Antsirabe, Antseranana (Diego Suarez), Fianarantsoa,Mahajanga (Majunga),Toamasina (Tamatave),and Toliary (Tul6ar). Sources and methods for other data are described in the text. 10

Table B-5: The Regional Distributionof the Population-a/

Region Land area Population Population (square (thousands) density kilometers) 1966 1975 (Populationper square kilometer) 1966 1977

Antananarivo 58,283 1,580 2,168 27.1 37.2 Fianarantsoa 102,373 1,565 1,804 15.3 17.6 Toamasina 71,911 1,025 1,180 14.3 16.4 Mahajanga 150,023 665 820 4.4 5.5 Toliary 161,405 815 1,034 5.0 6.4 Antsiranana 43,046 550 598 12.8 13.9

Total 587,041 6,200 7,604 10.6 13.0

a. The former names of the provinces,which are the same as the names of the largest cities in each, are given in the footnote of Table B-5. Sources and methods are described in the text. 11

C. Agriculture

1. Estimation of Gross Production

For the estimates of value added in the primary sector (Table E-2), it was necessary to estimate indexes of production for the period 1950 through

1970 for crop and animal production,forestry and fishing, For this purpose I calculated indexes of gross production, drawing primarily upon unpublished data in physical quantites supplied by the Direction gen6rale du plan (which

in turn apparently came originally from the Ministere du developpement agricole et r6forme agraire). This Ministry also supplied directly some addi-

tional data on physical quantitiesof production.

The producer price data for 1970 used in weighting the index come from

Minist6re de la production agricole et de la reform agraire, Annuaire

statistiqueagricole. 1980 (Antananarivo;n.d.). Although these are "producer' prices it is unclear whether producers or whether buyers several stages above

the producers received these prices. For minor products for which producer price data are not available,estimates were made by applying ratios of rela-

tive retail prices.

A gross crop index was calculated from physical series of production of

paddy, coffee, cassava, cloves, sweet potatoes, sugar cane, citrus fruits, maize, beans, bananas, pineapples,and 18 minor products. They were weighted

by the 1970 producer prices. Since data on all products were not available for

all years, the index had to be spliced at a number of points.

For calculating an index of gross production of animal products, some

problems arose. Although data are availableon meat production,both in terms

of the number of animalsbutchered and the meat produced.However, these cover

only slaughter houses and not animals butchered on the farm. Further, these

series are marked by some important discontinuities,suggesting different methods of estimationwere used at different times. It appeared that long term 12

trends could best be revealed by starting with estimates of the total number

of each type of animal, using as weights the producer price data on "butchered

animals." To derive annual production, however, it is necessary to make some

assumptions about the average length of life of each animal. Starting with

such data for the United States and making some crude adjustmentsto take into

account what I believe are Malagasy rural conditions,I estimated these to be:

cattle, 5 years; sheep and goats, 2.0 years; pigs, 1.25 years. It turns out

that the final results are not very sensitive to these assumptionsbecause of

the predominance of the value of cattle in the index. Chickens were omitted

from the index because of questions about the methods used to estimate this number; their inclusionwould not make a significantchange to the index.

The index of fishing production included freshwaterfish, seawater fish, and crustacians (shrimp, crabs, etc.). Because the coverage of this sector is more complete than the coverage of the animal product volume, the value of

total production was reduced by one quarter when it was combined with the animal products index. This procedure did make a small difference for the years between 1950 and 1960; thereafterit was of little significance.

The forestry product index includes three different kinds of wood: heating wood, wood for productive use, and charcoal. They were weighted by their retail prices.

The gross crop, animal and fishing, and forestry indexes were combined using value added weights for 1972 from: Ministere des finances et du plan and

INSRE, Comptes economiquesde Madagascar. .197(Antananarivo: n.d.).

2. AgriculturalPrices

The index of "official prices" presented in Table C-1 includes 12 products: cassava (manioc), cloves, coffee, cotton, groundnuts, lima beans

(pois de cap), pepper, rice, sisal, sugar, tobacco, and vanilla. They are 13 weighted by domestic production in 1970. The jump in the series in 1970 occurs because of a one year high price for rice purchases.The individualprice data come from materials supplied by the Direction g6n6rale du plan.

The price series used to deflate the official agricultural prices to calculate an internal terms of trade come from Tables E-1 and Table G-1.

Table C-1: Indicatorsof AgriculturalProducer Prices-a/

Year Index of Deflated index of Ratio of official agri- official official agricultur- cultural prices to foreign agricul- al prices (inter-sec- trade prices of 11 commodities tural toral terms of trade) at official exchange rate prices Index of Retail Total Excluding Excluding implicit price sugar, sugar, deflator index vanilla vanilla, of GDP rice

1960 52.8 68.4 72.3 29.4% 42.6% 41.5% 1961 53.1 67.8 69.9 30.2 41.1 41.0 1962 55.5 69.3 74.0 28.6 38.9 37.4 1963 57.1 69.5 76.6 29.5 40.3 43.4 1964 65.3 76.3 85.1 36.4 48.8 42.7 1965 64.4 72.0 83.0 32.0 42.6 39.0 1966 60.1 65.4 74.7 26.2 34.8 29.9 1967 61.7 66.5 74.9 27.3 36.4 38.9 1968 62.0 66.2 71.5 27.1 36.1 45.7 1969 66.1 68.0 74.0 30.8 41.2 47.0 1970 100.0 100.0 100.0 44.3 59.4 41.1 1971 76.4 72.5 71.3 34.4 47.1 43.1 1972 76.9 69.1 71.3 34.5 51.2 41.2 1973 78.3 66.3 64.7 29.0 39.9 44.3 1974 111.7 77.4 74.6 19.1 31.3 44.9 1975 131.3 83.6 83.6 24.0 39.2 50.8 1976 131.9 80.5 82.8 26.9 36.3 36.1 1977 149.4 88.5 87.4 32.2 42.4 24.9 1978 151.8 84.3 85.0 32.7 42.1 29.0 1979 165.3 80.5 75.2 35.2 47.8 31.1 1980 189.8 78.2 76.7 34.0 53.3 30.4 1981 213.0 67.2 73.9 23.7 41.8 33.8 1982 250.1 60.0 65.5 32.7 45.7 30.9 1983 277.3 55.6 63.1 28.4 43.1 22.8 1984 315.1 57.6 63.0 25.2 38.2 19.4

a. Notes and sources are discussed in the text. 14

The 11 product comparisonswith foreign prices include: cassava (manioc), coffee, cloves, groundnuts, lima beans (pois de cap), pepper, rice, sisal, sugar, tobacco, and vanilla. The foreign trade prices are all for Madagascar exports except for rice, which represent the import prices. For missing years, interpolations have been made with the aid of world market rice prices presented in InternationalMonetary Fund, InternationalFinancial Statistics

Yearbook: 1975 (Washington,D.C.: 1975). Because of high refining costs, the ratio of buying and foreign trade prices of sugar and vanilla are particularly low, so they are omitted from the recalculation of the index. Because rice dominates the index, it is omitted in the third recalculation.The prices are weighted by domestic production in 1970. The data come from materials supplied by the Direction generale du plan.

Additional data on agriculturalprices and marketing are given in Table

C-2. The 1950 - 1960 prices come from: Commissariatgeneral au plan, Economie malgache: Evolution 1950 - 1960 (Antananarivo:June 1962), p. 248. The represent the price of coffee, groundnuts,rice, and vanilla in four specific markets and, as such, are not comparablewith the official prices presented in

Table C-1.

The data on rice marketing comes from J.C. Berthelemy, Offre de biens manufactures et production agricole: Etude de cas sur Madagascar Paris: OECD

Development Center, forthcoming); the production data comes from materials supplied by the Direction g6nerale du plan. Berthelemy'sestimates of marketed the share of marketed production of rice are relatively similar to those of the World Bank (Madagascar: Agriculture and Rural Development Sector

Memorandum, Report 4209-MAG (Washington,D.C.: June 1983), p. 185 (Annex I,

Table 7)]; these data differ from those another source: Jean-JacquesDethier and J. Dirck Stryker, "ComparativeStudy of the Political Economy of Agricul- tural Pricing Policies: Madagascar Case Study," World Bank, forthcoming. 15

Table C-2: MiscellaneousAgricultural Price and MarketingData--a/

Year Index of domestic Year Share of domestic producer prices of productionof rice 5 agriculturalcommo- marketed dities, 1970 - 100 Index Deflated by 1963 14.4% cost of living 1964 14.5 1965 10.4 1950 46.7 115.9 1966 11.0 1951 47.4 99.8 1967 14.1 1952 52.8 93.9 1968 14.3 1953 53.7 87.7 1969 15.0 1954 53.2 85.7 1970 16.6 1955 48.6 76.3 1971 14.8 1956 50.9 79.8 1972 16.8 1957 55.7 83.5 1973 12.5 1958 56.5 78.6 1974 12.6 1959 55.8 73.6 1975 13.2 1960 52.8 68.5 1976 11.8 1977 12.2 1978 12.5 1979 11.4 1980 11.1 1981 6.0 1982 5.3 1983 7.0 1984 6.2

a. Sources and methods are discussedin the text. 16

D. Manufacturing

1. Recent Data

Data for total manufacturing production come for 1970 - 1983 which are presented in Table D-1 come from a series given to me by the Banque des donnees de l16tat; they represent the most recent revisions. Data on the components come from: World Bank, Madagascar: Economic Memorandum on Current

Economic Position and ProsRects and Selected DeveloRmentIssues, Report 1099a-

MAG (Washington,D.C.: December 1976); and various issues of INSRE, Situation

6conomique (Antananarivo:annual). The individualcomponent series are consistent with the aggregateproduction index except for 1975.

The new series and some technical details of the calculations are discussed in: Situation economique au ler ianvier 1986. pp. 72 ff. I have combined the series of metal working (weight - 1.43), electrical machinery

(weight- 0.95), and transportequipment (weight- 0.02) into a single "metal industries"index.

2. Estimates for 1950 _ 1970

For the GDP series presented in Table E-2, it was necessary to calculate an index of production in mining and manufacturing. The data for the calculation come from: Commissariat gen6ral au plan, Economie malgache:

Evolution 1950 - 1960 (Antananarivo:June 1962); Minister of Finance and

Planning, Basic Social and Economic Data on Madagascar. 1950 _ 75, Technical

Studies, Document 001 (Antananarivo:1977); various issues of INSRE, Situation economique (Antananarivo:annual); and certain unpublished data supplied by the Direction g6n6rale du Plan. The value-addedweights for different sectors and branches come from: Minist&re des finances et du plan and INSRE, ComRtes

6conomiuuesde Madagascar 1973, 2p. cit. and unpublisheddata

For mining the products in the index are: graphite,mica, chromite, gold, Table D-1: Indexes of ManufacturingProduction-a/

Year Total Min- Food Tobac- Tex Cloth- Wood Paper Print- Lea- Rub- Chem- Petro- Cons- Trans- ing and co tiles ing pro- pro- ing ther ber icals leum truc- port bever- ducts ducts pro- pro- refin- tion equip- ages ducts ducts ing mat- ment erals

1970 3.90 37.99 3.76 19.50 7.42 1.78 2.27 3.64 0.75 0.35 weights

1970 100.0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1971 104.6 102 93 108 122 84 132 108 80 103 103 154 94 113 128 1972 106.6 98 93 119 132 112 86 101 87 216 120 130 98 96 114 1973 105.9 138 85 128 133 111 72 136 91 259 133 140 116 70 95 1974 114.7 138 91 127 162 116 66 169 93 332 157 149 110 65 88 1975 108.0 180 87 128 152 121 54 172 72 287 169 159 125 51 90 1976 111.3 171 89 137 156 113 56 147 79 246 178 172 93 43 86 1977 113.5 152 90 146 157 114 77 187 81 297 171 187 88 42 86 1978 115.0 115 96 164 156 115 78 205 _ 79 333 175 201 63 47 83 1979 117.0 119 94 164 165 118 74 212 78 379 216 213 59 44 81 1980 115.3 137 89 161 158 131 68 197 81 345 227 173 89 42 112 1981 98.4 91 77 138 149 121 62 147 87 307 140 124 63 31 52 1982 84.9 57 60 144 144 90 58 151 78 293 82 94 61 33 14 1983 88.3 52 68 127 151 90 43 162 81 279 145 108 34 37 8 1984 82.1 61 60 137 141 85 54 149 77 361 117 105 10 31 7

New series: Metal products

1982 2.34 30.36 1.88 36.22 13.68 1.27 3.20 3.09 0.86 0.30 3.41 0.50 0.49 2.40 weights

1982 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1983 110.3 94.3 119.9 87.1 103.2 113.8 116.1 107.2 97.0 95.2 175.2 115.7 54.6 100.9 125.8 1984 100.3 74.8 100.1 97.9 94.4 102.9 122.1 98.4 101.9 111.4 141.8 128.5 16.0 101.8 162.0 1985 102.7 137.4 109.5 101.9 90.2 105.5 89.4 103.6 102.7 95.3 168.1 126.0 84.5 79.0 133.2

a. Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 18

quartz, and beryl, of which only the first three are of much importance. The products within the index were weighted by the export prices.

For manufacturing from 1960 to 1970 problems of estimation were more difficult. Long time-series for sixteen products were available to construct the index. Some of the products were contained within the individual industrialbranches (7 were in food processing);these were weighted by value- added for the same goods produced in the United States, as estimated from data in: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1972 Census of Manufacturing,Volume II, Indus- try Statistics (Washington,D.C.: G.P.O., 1976). The indices for the various branches were combined using the branch weights discussed above. The resulting index for the period 1970 to 1983 was matched against the INSRE manufacturing index; for the 13 year period, the two series differed only by one percentage point although the latter index includes many more products.

For the period from 1950 to 1960, the number of series of manufactured goods consistent with the later data were not sufficient to place much confidence in the results. Therefore, I used an index of manufacturingproduction presented in Economie malgache, 2p. cit., p. 160. 19

E. Aggregate Production

1. Sources and Problem

Several major problems arise with the official national accounts data of

Madagascar. First, they are publishedwithout any explanatorynotes so that it is not possible to understand how the estimates were made. Indeed, the estimates have been made by different governmental agencies and it appears that different methodologies were exployed at different times. Second, from

1950 up to 1970, official national account estimates in constant prices were not made. Third, in the 1950's data are available only for selected years and, moreover, using a concept (Productionint6rieure brute) which excludes certain services; estimates for later years are made for using the standard internationalconcept (Produit interieurbrut).

In making my estimates I have drawn primarily from: Commissariatg6n6ral au plan, Economie malgache: Evolution 1950 - 1960 (Antananarivo:June 1962);

Minister of Finance and Planning, Basic Social and Economic Data on toe- Madagascar. 1950 - 75, (Fahalana fototra momba ny fiaraha-mininagy n karen': Madagasikara. 1950 - 1975) Technical Studies, Document 001 (Antanana- rivo: 1977); and unpublisheddata supplied by the Direction generale du Plan.

2. Aggregate Production in Current Prices

The current price data on the production side are presented in Table C- la. The primary sector includes agriculture, forestry, and fishing; the secondary sector, mining, manufacturing, utilities, and construction; the tertiary sector, transportationand communication,finance and real estate, services, and government. The available data series are marred by several misprints and for several years (1956 and 1966) I had made some small corrections.For 1961 data were not available and were estimated using constant price data and a consumer price index to make the interpolation.For the 20

1950's data for the tertiary sector excluded certain services (governmentand household services);however, since value added both series are available for some years, the missing years can be estimatedby interpolations. Moreover,

Table E-la: GDP and Components in Current Market Prices: Production-a/ (BillionFMG)

GDP Import GDP: Sectors taxes quasi- Pri- Second- Ter- factor mary ary tiary price

1950 75.7 1.8 73.9 30.7 1951 79.8 3.4 76.4 33.8 1952 86.9 2.9 84.0 35.9 1953 91.0 3.2 87.8 38.0 1954 96.6 4.7 91.9 41.6 1955 90.2 4.2 86.0 39.2 1956 105.0 5.2 99.8 47.0 1957 105.0 5.8 99.2 47.0 1958 118.0 6.3 111.7 55.0 1959 118.0 7.6 110.4 56.0 1960 134.2 7.3 126.9 71.1 1961 134.3 7.5 126.8 75.8 1962 147.4 8.8 138.6 80.6 1963 151.4 8.8 142.6 85.3 1964 160.0 10.2 149.8 90.5 1965 166.2 9.7 156.5 94.8 1966 181.6 9.9 171.7 99.5 1967 192.9 10.4 182.5 102.3 1968 208.3 11.9 196.4 112.9 1969 224.2 13.6 210.6 121.7 1970 249.4 13.2 236.2 73.8 46.0 116.3 1971 269.1 16.4 252.7 79.6 49.2 124.0 1972 279.7 13.9 265.8 86.0 52.3 127.5 1973 304.7 11.8 292.9 100.3 60.2 132.4 1974 372.8 13.2 359.6 154.0 66.7 138.9 1975 395.2 14.9 380.3 162.4 70.6 147.3 1976 421.1 16.5 404.6 169.2 76.2 159.2 1977 468.1 23.3 444.8 185.7 89.9 169.2 1978 486.6 23.7 462.9 187.6 93.6 181.7 1979 595.1 32.0 563.1 212.5 114.5 236.1 1980 689.8 35.1 654.7 249.1 124.3 281.3 1981 789.0 29.6 759.4 313.6 125.3 320.5 1982 996.1 30.2 965.9 409.7 149.9 406.3 1983 1220.9 33.7 1187.2 525.0 185.4 476.7 1984 1369.1 43.0 1326.1 580.6 213.9 531.6 1985 1553.4 n.a. n.a. 653.2 254.1 n.a. 1986 1806.9 n.a. n.a. 776.0 284.4 n.a.

a. Sources and methods are discussed in the text of the appendix. 21 for the government sector (which is the most important source of estimated value added) such interpolation have been aided by data on overall governmentalexpenditures.

Data on the value added in the primary and secondary sectors are available for most years as well, but a comparabilityproblem arises because before 1970 the data are in terms of market price, while in 1970 and succeeding years, the estimates were made in terms of "quasi-factorprices," i.e., market prices minus import taxes. In order to give some idea of magnitudes of import prices in early years, I present published data on import taxes for 1950 through 1960 [from Commissariat general au plan, op.cit., p.

220) and, for the 1960's, import taxes estimated by interpolation,using a series on total indirect taxes collectedby the central government as a guide.

Current end-use data are presented in Table C-lb without corrections.The components equal GDP, not GNP; thus consumptionand investment corresponding to net factor incomes have been excluded in some manner. The 1977- 86 data on exports and imports may be incomparablewith the previous series.

The estimates for gross investmentsfor 1950-2, 1954-5, 1957-8 and 1961 are made from the constant price estimates of gross fixed capital investment presented in Table C-2 and interpolatedratios of constant to current price

estimates. For 1950 - 52, the constant price gross fixed capital investment

data are inflated by the price index of imported machinery (see Section F).

Inventory investment is estimated as 7.87 percent of gross fixed capital

investment, which is the ratio for ,the years for which both data are

available.

3. Aggregate Production in Constant Prices

Estimates of aggregate production are presented in Table C-2. The data

from 1950 to 1970 are my own estimates; the data from 1970 through 1984 are

official estimates. However, the estimates for the service sector and for the 22

overall GDP have been slightly adjusted for the period 1977 through 1984 since there appeared to be a slight break in the series.

I have been able to locate two other calculations of the Malagasy

Table E-lb: GDP End Use in Current Market Prices-a/ (Billion FMG)

GDP Consumption Gross Exports Imports Pri- Pub- investment vate lic Fixed Inven- capital tory 1950 75.7 13.6 1951 79.8 15.3 1952 86.9 17.8 1953 91.0 69.0 15.0 13.0 2.0 15.0 -23.0 1954 96.6 13.3 1955 90.2 13.3 1956 105.0 79.0 23.0 9.0 1.0 16.0 -23.0 1957 105.0 12.4 1958 118.0 11.2 1959 118.0 90.0 27.0 12.0 0.0 19.0 -30.0 1960 134.2 101.5 27.0 13.0 1.7 18.5 -27.5 1961 134.3 12.8 1962 147.4 106.7 35.7 12.3 -0.6 23.3 -30.0 1963 151.4 110.4 35.3 15.5 0.6 -10.4 1964 160.0 115.8 36.4 16.8 1.0 -10.0 1965 166.2 122.4 37.5 16.0 1.0 -10.7 1966 181.6 129.6 39.3 22.4 2.0 27.4 -39.1 1967 192.9 135.8 41.4 25.4 2.7 27.8 -40.2 1968 208.3 144.3 45.7 29.8 4.0 31.2 -46.7 1969 224.2 156.4 48.3 33.5 4.3 32.2 -50.5 1970 249.4 167.2 46.1 36.4 2.5 56.8 -59.6 1971 269.1 183.1 52.5 42.7 4.7 59.4 -73.3 1972 279.7 198.7 52.6 36.0 1.9 56.6 -66.1 1973 304.7 218.5 51.4 40.1 2.5 55.8 -63.6 1974 372.8 277.7 58.9 50.8 58.8 -83.4 1975 395.2 301.1 60.4 50.6 74.5 -91.4 1976 421.1 306.4 66.6 53.9 75.9 -81.7 1977 468.1 348.2 72.8 59.5 91.5 -103.9 1978 486.6 362.0 81.6 71.2 2.2 99.2 -129.6 1979 595.1 438.5 103.0 144.7 6.0 103.1 -200.2 1980 689.8 527.3 117.8 157.6 4.8 109.4 -227.1 1981 789.0 608.8 129.1 148.3 -5.8 107.9 -199.3 1982 996.1 808.6 149.5 126.0 7.0 132.9 -227.9 1983 1220.9 978.5 165.3 160.7 153.4 -237.0 1984 1369.1 1058.1 185.0 185.7 214.2 -273.9 1885 1553.4 1208.6 209.7 217.7 225.0 -307.6 1986 1806.9 1381.0 237.5 248.6 257.9 -318.1

a. Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 23

aggregateproduction before 1970: 1950 - 1970 estimatesmade by the World Bank

[World Tables, 3d ed. (Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press, 1983), Vol.

I]; and 1960 - 1970 estimatespresented by the International Monetary Fund

Table E-2: GDP and Componentsin Constant 1970 Quasi-FactorPrices-a-/ (Billion constant FMG)

Sectors GDP Gross fixed Primary Secondary Tertiary capital formation

1950 49.1 12.5 74.2 135.8 24.8 1951 50.3 14,5 75.2 140.0 28.4 1952 51.5 16.6 67.7 135.9 31.5 1953 55.3 17.0 69.3 141.6 27.5 1954 54.3 18.2 65.3 137.8 29.5 1955 55.6 20.2 65.7 141.5 33.6 1956 58.9 19.8 72.2 150.9 28.8 1957 64.1 22.7 74.0 160.8 32.9 1958 63.7 21.8 77.2 162.8 26.6 1959 61.8 23.6 76.1 161.5 28.1 1960 64.5 24.7 84.5 173.8 25.6 1961 66.2 24.5 84.6 175.3 25.6 1962 70.4 26.6 89.1 186.0 29.4 1963 70.1 29.1 93.1 192.4 31.9 1964 70.3 30.2 96.9 197.4 31.9 1965 72.4 31.0 99.5 202.9 31.1 1966 78.5 32.0 103.1 213.6 31.7 1967 84.8 31.0 105.7 221.5 31.9 1968 77.1 34.2 116.1 227.4 36.7 1969 77.7 36.5 123.1 237.4 41.8 1970 73.8 46.0 116.3 236.2 36.4 1971 73.5 48.4 122.5 244.3 43.6 1972 74.8 49.2 119.6 243.7 38.3 1973 76.5 48.2 116.2 240.9 31.4 1974 81.3 51.4 113.3 246.0 26.4 1975 80.9 51.4 116.1 248.4 31.8 1976 73.9 46.7 120.4 241.0 28.3 1977 76.3 48.1 121.1 245.5 28.6 1978 71.3 50.1 118.0 239.4 34.6 1979 76.4 56.5 130.1 263.0 46.7 1980 78.3 55.0 132.4 265.7 44.5 1981 74.8 42.6 128.3 245.7 49.0 1982 77.8 36.5 127.1 241.5 30.1 1983 77.9 37.0 127.6 242.5 30.0 1984 84.3 35.5 128.0 247.8 28.3 1985 85.9 37.3 130.4 253.6 n.a. 1986 88.4 36.2 130.4 255.0 n.a.

a. Sources and methods are discussedin the text. 24

[InternationalFinancial StatisticsYearbook 1984 (Washington,D.C.: 1984)].

Unfortunately,neither agency retained any records of how such estimates were made.

For the period 1960 to 1970, the World Bank and the IMF estimated respectivelythat the GDP increased34.4 percent and 32.7 percent; my estimate is 35.8 percent. Thus the three estimates reveal practically the same picture.

My method implies an increase in the GDP deflator of 36.8 percent which also appears roughly consistent with the increase in the low income urban retail price index of 29.6%.

The period from 1950 to 1960 presents more difficulties.According to the

World Bank, GDP in real terms increased 26.1 percent; my own estimates, which are extremely rough, show an increase of 28.0 percent. While the closeness of the two estimates is gratifying,both may be quite wrong. My method implies an increase in the GDP deflator of 38.5 percent. Comparisons with other price indices give rise to problems because of the enormous differences in the behavior of these indices: the urban retail price index (Table G-1) increased roughly 91.5 percent; import prices, 85.2 percent (Table F-1); export prices,

41.0 percent (Table F-1); the wholesale price index, 34.0 percent; an aggricultural price index, 32 percent; the minimum wages, 142 percent (the last three data come from Economie malgache, oD. cit., p. 237).

For the 1970 to 1984 period, my estimates (not shown) show a rise in GDP of 10.1 percent; the official estimates show a rise of 5.2 percent. For a 14 year period these differencesare small so that some confidence can be placed in my estimates for earlier years. The method of estimationvaries from sector to sector and deserves brief discussion.

4. EstimationProcedures

The primary sector includes crop and animal production, fishing, and forestry products. The calculation of the index of production in this sector 25

is described in Section C.

The secondary sector includes mining, manufacturing, utilities, and construction. The calculations of the index of production for mining and manufacturing is described in Section D. For the remaining sectors, the physical series for production came from the major sources cited above. For later years, however, they were supplementedby various issues of INSRE,

Situation economique (Antananarivo:annual). The value added weights for different sectors and branches come from: Ministere des finances et du plan and INSRE, Comptes economiquesde Madagascar1973, 2O. cit.

The utilities index includeselectricity generated from both thermal and hydroelectric sources and produced water. The water and electricity series were weighted by the retail prices for the two commodities.The construction index uses imported and home produced cement to serve as the proxy for all production in the sector.

The tertiary sector includes transportation, commerce, finance, government administration,and services; this sector provided the greatest problems of estimation. Although series are available for transportation, labor force data to serve as production proxies are not available for the other sectors. Since national accounts data in currentprices are available,a deflationmethod is the only method available.

Two deflation procedurescan be employed. One is to use the low-income retail price index for Antananarivo,a method which assumes that wages in the tertiary sector remained constant in real terms over the period. A second procedure is to use an index of the minimum wage (SMIG),on which not only the minimum wage but a whole wage structure is based; this method assumes that wages in the tertiary sector moved in the same manner as wages in all other sectors. 26

It would appear as though some combination of the two indices would be

the best deflator since both leave something to be desired if used alone. For

the period from 1970 through 1983 data are available for the production in the

tertiary sector in both current and constant prices. After a little bit of

smoothing of the minimum wage series, experimentswere made to determine which

ratio of the two indices minimized the sum of the least square differences

between the predicted and actual constant price series. The final result was

that the SMIG series was weighted 58 percent and the cost of living series was

weighted 42 percent.

Although this method yielded quite reasonable appearing results for the

1960's, the method for the 1950's yielded almost no increase in the tertiary

sector (due to a very rapid increase in the minimum wage series from 1950 to

1955). This did not seem very reasonable, especially since transportation

production increased roughly 63 percent (Economiemalgache, oD. cit., p. 12).

Another method is to assume that the tertiary sector increased at the same

rate as the primary and secondary sectors. Lacking any evidence to chose

between the two estimates, I have simply averaged them. I must emphasized

that the final GDP estimates are quite sensitive to the manner in which this

series is estimated since it is so large a share of GDP.

6. Gross Fixed Capital Investment

Gross fixed capital investment.is estimated from two series: the

estimates of total consumption from the production side and the imports of

machinery and equipment, obtained from the trade statistics (Appendix II-D).

The series are weighted according to the imports of construction materials

and equipment in gross fixed capital investment in 1973 which are found in:

Ministere des finances et du plan, INSRE, Comptes economiques de Madagascar.

1973, p. Zcit. 27

F. Foreign Trade and the Balance of Payments

1. Sources of Data

The foreign trade statistics of Madagascar vary somewhat from source to source. Further, in recent years they are riddled with typographicalerrors so that correctionsmust be attempted.

For data for the period from 1950 to 1960, I used Service de statistique et des 6tudes socio-6conomiques, Statistigues du commerce exterieur de

Madagascar: Series retrosDectives. 1949 1961 (Antananarivo: n.d.) Com- missariat general au plan, Economie malgache: Evolution 1950 - 60

(Antananarivo:June 1962); and Minister of Finance and Planning,Basic Social sad Economic Data on Madagascar. 1950 - 1975, Technical Studies, Document 001

(Antananarivo:May 1977).

For data from 1960 to the present, I have relied primarily on mimeographedmaterials (no title) obtained from the Direction generale du plan since they appear to correct some of the errors in the data published by

INSRE. I have also tried to correct obvious typographicalerrors; whenever I was in doubt, however, I made no changes. I could locate no long term volume or price indices of exports or imports and, therefore,have constructedmy own using 1970 as my base year. Comparison of these series with shorter term series found in the Malagasy economic literature shows some similaritiesand some differences. Since no details of estimation are usually supplied with these indices, it is difficult to know whether the differences are due to the base year selected, or to the coverage of the index, or to the number of goods included, or to the raw data. However, as I show below, the quantity series for import are quite sensitive to the choice of the year of the price weights.

The data collected were supplementedby a variety of sources including:

Minist&re des finance, Statistiguesdu commerce exterieur de Madagascar (An- tananarivo: annual); Banque central de la RApublique malgache, Bulleti men- 28

suel de statistioues,various issues; INSRE, Inventairesocio-6conomique. 1.61

_ 1965 (Antananarivo:n.d.), Tome 2; INSRE, Inventairesocio-eonomigue. 1964

1968 (Antananarivo:1969); and, for 1981 through 1985, Banque de donnees de l1'tat Situation 6conomiqueau ler Janvier (Antananarivo:annual).

2. Ouantity and Price Indices

The quantity and price indices of imports and exports, as well as the terms of trade indices are presented in Table F-1.

Exports in constant prices were calculated from an index containing 31 products. For the period from 1960 through 1984 their value accounted for roughly 92 percent of the value of total exports; from 1950 through 1959 their value accounted for about 74 percent of total exports. The non-included exportswere taken into account by employingan estimationprocedure based on the assumption that the average unit prices of the omitted commoditieswere the same as the goods in the index. In the text I use the index calculated with 1970 prices (the same as the GDP data); however, when recalculatedusing

1980 prices, few importantdifferences are observed.

Imports in constant prices were calculated from five different sub- indices: food (6 products); primary materials and intermediate goods (31 products); energy (5 products) industrialequipment (28 goods); and consumer goods (15 products). These 85 products cover about 47 percent of total imports, with coverage increasing to roughly 63 percent in the period from

1974 through 1985. The non-includedimports were taken into account by employ- ing an estimation procedure based on the assumption that the average unit prices of the omitted commodities in each of the five categories of imports were the the same as the other goods in that category. Although I use the index with the 1970 price weights in the text, it must be stressed that the results are quite sensitive to the choice of the price weights; this can be 29

seen by comparing the series with the 1970 and 1980 price weights.

3. Exports and Imports in Current Prices

I present export and import data in current prices, divided by important

categories in Tables F-2 and F-3. I made no estimations, other than

corrections for typographical errors in the original sources. For exports a major change in classificationoccurred in 1960 so that the series before and

after this data are not comparable. The export data are f.o.b.; the import

data are c.i.f.

4. Balance of Payments

Three different secondary sources are available for the balance of

payments. The first are reports from World Bank missions; the second are

estimates of the IMF appearing in the Balance of Pavments Yearbooks; and the

third are incomplete data supplied by the Direction generale du plan. These

sources differ not only in the manner in which the data are presented, but

also in detail (althoughnot the overall picture).Unfortunately, I was unable

to obtain access to the original data and, therefore, am relying primarily on

World Bank estimates.

The current account data are presented in Table F-4a; the capital account

data are presented in Table F-4b. These data are very rough and contain a

number of small estimates; they must, therefore,be used cautiously.

The data for exports and imports are both f.o.b.; however, in some years

the imports are greater than the c.i.f. trade data presented in Table D-3. The

export data in the balance of trade statistics and the trade statistics are

also slightly different.

The data for 1962 through 1970 come from World Bank, Recent Economic

Position and Prospects of the Malagasy Republic, Report AE-lla (January 1971),

Table 30, with grants to the public sector redefined as a transfer (rather

than a capital transaction). The 1969 data are partly estimated from IMF, 30

Table F-1: Exports, Imports, and Trade Price Series-a/

1970 Drice weights 1980 price weights Volume (mil. FMGG) Price indices Terms of Volume (mil FMG) Exports Imports Exports Imports trade index Exports Imports

1950 20,956 37,648 57.93 39.86 145.32 55,975 100,304 1951 23,560 49,159 56.59 46.56 121.54 56,445 129,502 1952 22,712 40,555 72.11 57.65 125.09 56,581 111,661 1953 19,481 40,805 76.16 55.47 137.30 48,846 115,066 1954 22,784 44,137 70.34 54.47 129.14 57,160 123,917 1955 23,266 41,704 61.33 51.36 119.41 59,635 118,257 1956 29,918 43,176 54.48 53.49 101.86 73,458 125,943 1957 24,898 43,955 65.21 59.51 109.57 65,521 124,166 1958 29,950 40,365 67.61 65.81 102.73 73,161 119,849 1959 23,479 41,872 79.43 70.47 112.72 58,646 122,518 1960 22,632 37,297 81.68 73.84 110.62 60,772 113,623 1961 27,384 35,184 69.89 72.56 96.31 70,302 108,734 1962 32,470 39,921 71.72 75.22 95.35 86,314 125,539 1963 25,442 43,576 79.64 72.24 110.24 69,286 134,689 1964 29,285 44,548 77.35 75.11 102.99 77,389 141,387 1965 31,377 41,969 72.13 81.41 88.60 85,650 130,022 1966 32,051 43,263 75.29 81.07 92.87 89,527 136,808 1967 34,091 44,736 75.42 80.21 94.02 94,203 125,971 1968 43,325 50,546 66.03 83.14 79.42 111,704 138,863 1969 34,074 53,372 85.56 88.43 96.75 98,756 149,823 1970 40,223 47,346 100.00 100.00 100.00 113,287 140,332 1971 41,149 54,867 99.17 108.01 91.82 114,557 156,146 1972 40,843 49,193 102.50 105.21 97.42 115,258 140,269 1973 42,778 39,946 104.61 113.04 92.54 121,585 112,889 1974 44,209 37,361 132.34 178.66 74.07 126,496 103,739 1975 52,558 40,300 122.98 192.43 63.91 130,918 113,108 1976 38,139 33,233 173.14 205.92 84.08 104,239 89,795 1977 32,592 40,515 254.44 210.33 120.97 88,878 114,010 1978 40,961 44,295 212.92 224.93 94.66 101,349 126,620 1979 39,367 61,078 212.94 221.55 96.11 96,843 159,578 1980 31,365 51,737 270.30 245.04 110.31 84,781 126,775 1981 31,381 40,239 273.23 367.75 74.30 82,476 114,250 1982 32,716 35,339 331.17 420.50 78.76 82,407 101,988 1983 26,289 39,139 484.07 426.04 113.62 71,077 122,512 1984 32,018 36,977 600.49 577.47 103.99 79,555 124,683

a. The volume series are Laspeyre indices using 1970 prices; the price indices are Paasch indexes obtained by dividing the current value series by the volume indexes. The terms of trade series are the ratio of the export price to the import price series.

The sources and methods are described in the text. 31

Table F-2: Export Aggregates in Current Prices-a1 (Million FMG)

Total Food Primary materials Energy Indus- Consu- Agricul Mineral trial mer goods, tural equipment 1950 12,140 11,482 543 115 1951 13,332 12,548 729 55 1952 16,378 15,402 797 179 1953 14,837 14,060 668 109 1954 16,026 15,289 640 97 1955 14,268 13,419 717 132 1956 16,300 15,347 725 228 1957 16,235 15,141 778 316 1958 20,248 19,367 589 292 1959 18,650 17,678 680 292 1960 18,485 17,178 844 463

Changes in definitions.

1960 18,485 13,637 2,890 1,716 0 225 118 1961 19,138 14,106 2,833 1,804 2 225 166 1962 23,286 18,047 3,120 1,742 2 200 174 1963 20,262 14,250 4,086 1,611 0 121 193 1964 22,653 15,917 4,692 1,664 0 138 242 1965 22,633 16,629 3,708 1,858 0 164 273 1966 24,131 17,502 3,912 1,982 166 262 308 1967 25,711 18,871 2,904 1,827 982 674 453 1968 28,608 22,223 2,635 2,117 984 240 410 1969 29,154 21,071 2,894 2,886 1,043 707 553 1970 40,223 30,570 3,003 3,581 1,545 839 685 1971 40,807 31,044 2,826 3,504 1,297 1,552 581 1972 41,864 32,576 3,324 3,682 1,520 175 586 1973 44,751 32,481 4,291 4,238 2,179 609 952 1974 58,504 39,578 4,759 6,431 5,535 287 1,914 1975 64,635 48,254 3,978 5,229 5,533 160 1,480 1976 66,035 49,706 3,405 6,042 4,323 274 2,285 1977 82,927 68,028 3,498 6,481 2,343 231 2,345 1978 87,214 74,205 2,615 7,067 1,364 153 1,809 1979 83,826 69,293 2,985 6,009 2,235 1,002 2,302 1980 84,781 1981 85,742 1982 108,347 1983 127,257 1984 192,267

a. The data are f.o.b.; totals may not add because of rounding. The data are drawn from the sources cited in the text; the data for 1950 through 1960 follow a differentnomenclature from the data in the later years. 32

Table F-3: Import Aggregates in Current Prices-a/ (Million FMG)

Total Food Primary mater- Energy Indus- Consu- ials and inter- trial mer mediate goods equip- goods

1950 15,008 1,594 2,235 1,040 3,129 7,011 1951 22,888 2,264 3,535 1,222 4,273 11,594 1952 23,379 2,679 4,853 1,733 5,118 8,996 1953 22,634 3,302 4,019 1,388 4,014 9,912 1954 24,040 3,790 4,323 969 4,286 10,672 1955 21,418 3,017 5,038 962 3,786 8,615 1956 23,094 3,163 4,970 1,100 4,142 9,719 1957 26,157 4,127 5,206 1,089 4,687 11,048 1958 26,564 3,872 5,215 1,166 5,169 11,142 1959 29,506 4,568 5,021 1,243 5,368 13,306 1960 27,539 4,504 5,436 1,259 4,848 11,492 1961 25,531 3,605 5,005 1,076 4,556 11,289 1962 30,027 3,902 5,892 1,122 5,123 13,988 1963 31,480 3,953 6,712 1,229 5,951 13,635 1964 33,452 4,120 6,692 1,257 7,468 13,923 1965 34,167 6,361 6,365 1,382 7,053 13,006 1966 35,074 4,778 7,157 1,850 7,535 13,754 1967 35,885 3,759 7,377 1,528 8,681 14,540 1968 42,045 4,373 9,082 1,952 9,885 16,733 1969 47,198 5,795 10,712 2,301 12,982 15,408 1970 47,346 5,329 13,420 2,671 11,588 14,338 1971 59,261 8,172 13,996 2,915 16,512 17,666 1972 51,756 6,381 12,275 3,429 15,147 14,524 1973 45,156 7,418 11,588 3,509 10,700 11,941 1974 66,748 13,505 18,290 11,110 10,687 13,156 1975 77,548 8,844 22,013 14,908 15,942 15,841 1976 68,434 8,316 17,903 12,785 15,257 14,173 1977 85,217 10,952 24,009 11,626 20,198 18,432 1978 99,632 15,024 28,206 12,659 25,881 17,862 1979 135,320 19,835 35,977 13,848 42,796 22,863 1980 126,775 10,073 43,616 12,620 38,447 22,018 1981 147,977 17,320 32,369 36,463 46,379 15,445 1982 148,601 24,001 35,110 34,223 40,224 15,043 1983 166,750 34,273 44,090 30,517 39,020 18,850 1984 213,531 27,419 58,296 61,940 38,769 27,106

a. Totals may not add because of rounding. The data come from sources cited in the text. 33

International Financial Statistics: Supplement on the Balance gf faments,

Supplement Series No. 7 (Washington,D.C.: 1984); however, because the data are presented in a different manner, certain estimates had to be made to achieve comparability.From 1970 to the present the data come from three World

Bank sources: Madagascar: Recent Economic Developments and Future Propsects

(Washington,D.C.: November 1980), Tables 3-3, 3-4, pp. 80 - 81; Madagascar:

Economic Memorandum, Report No. 3389-MAG (Washington,D.C.: November 1981),

Table F-4a: The Balance of Payments: Current Accounts-/ (Billion FMG)

Merchandise Services and other Transfers Net Exports Imports Balance Net non- Net Net Net current factor- factor pri- govern- account payments payments vate ment balance

1962 23.2 -25.5 -2.3 -5.3 -10.2 2.1 16.9 1.2 1963 20.5 -27.3 -6.8 -5.9 -10.3 2.2 17.2 -3.6 1964 22.7 -28.2 -5.5 -6.8 -10.0 2.3 17.2 -2.8 1965 23.3 -27.9 -4.6 -5.7 -9.1 2.5 12.9 -4.1 1966 24.1 -30.3 -6.2 -6.8 -7.4 2.0 14.4 -4.0 1967 25.7 -31.4 -5.6 -6,1 -7.6 2.2 16.2 -0.9 1968 28.6 -36.6 -8.0 -6.6 -7.6 2.2 16.1 -3.5 1969 29.2 -39.5 -10.4 -4.5 -7.6 2.5 13.8 -6.2 1970 40.1 -39.5 0.6 -3.4 -7.5 3.1 5.7 -1.5 1971 40.7 -49.1 -8.3 -5.4 -7.7 3.6 5.6 -12.3 1972 41.8 -42.4 -0.6 -9.0 -8.1 3.0 6.2 -8.5 1973 44.5 -39.6 4.9 -12.7 -6.5 3.7 3.7 -6.9 1974 59.5 -57.4 2.1 -14.3 -5.1 1.8 7.9 -7.6 1975 68.5 -71.1 -2.6 -16.1 -7.4 -0.7 13.5 -13.3 1976 69.1 -62.5 6.5 -18.1 -7.5 0.8 11.7 -6.6 1977 86.2 -76.6 9.6 -26.9 0.2 12.6 -4.5 1978 91.4 -91.2 0.2 -30.6 -2.0 1.9 11.8 -18.7 1979 88.0 -140.1 -52.1 -45.0 -2.6 1.5 13.4 -84.8 1980 92.2 -161.5 -69.3 -48.4 -9.7 0.8 9.0 -117.6 1981 90.1 -138.8 -48.7 -42.9 -24.9 1.1 17.0 -98.4 1982 114.4 -157.9 -43.5 -51.5 -34.6 -0.4 25.3 -104.7 1983 p. 133.3 -162.8 -29.5 -54.1 -48.4 -0.5 26.2 -106.4 1984 p. 192.1 -203.0 -10.9 -54.8 -77.0 2.0 39.1 -101.5

a. These estimates are indicative only of general ranges of magnitudes since the three sources cited in the text differ. The discontinuity in the series on factor payments between 1976 and 1978 is particularly disturbing. The letter "p" stands for "provisional."Sources and methods are described in the text of the appendix. 34

Table 3-2, p. 59; The Democratic Republic of Madagascar: Countrv Economic

Memorandum,Report No. 5996-MAG (March:1986), Table 3-1, p. 119.

Table F-4b: The Balance of Payments:Capital and Foreign Asset Account--a (BillionFMG)

Net long-term Net short-term Total Debt SDR Change in capital capital, bank credit relief allo- reserves, Enter- Govern- sector, arrears, cation foreign as- prises ment errors and sets (+ - omissions loss)

1962 0.8 0.6 -0.2 1.2 0.0 1963 1.8 0.2 -0.2 1.8 1.7 1964 2.5 0.7 -0.1 3.1 -0.3 1965 2.6 2.7 -1.7 3.6 0.5 1966 1.5 2.3 0.7 4.5 -0.5 1967 -0.0 0.8 -1.4 -0.6 1.5 1968 0.3 1.6 -1.3 0.6 2.9 1969 6.8 -3.0 3.8 2.4 1970 1.8 7.4 -3.7 5.5 0.9 -4.9 1971 4.1 8.6 0.4 13.1 0.8 -1.5 1972 3.1 8.4 -2.1 9.4 0.8 -1.6 1973 2.2 7.7 -0.7 9.2 -2.3 1974 2.6 3.4 -7.1 -1.1 8.7 1975 -0.1 6.6 -0.4 6.1 7.2 1976 -0.8 4.8 1.0 5.0 1.6 1977 1.7 4.4 1.4 7.5 -3.0 1978 15.3 1.6 16.9 1.8 1979 63.4 9.7 73.1 1.0 10.7 1980 93.5 2.1 95.6 0.9 -22.2 1981 69.0 13.8 82.8 17.3 1.0 -2.7 1982 29.9 45.4 75.3 32.4 -3.0 1983 p. 2.1 12.5 14.6 85.6 6.0 1984 p. 5.1 13.4 18.5 97.4 -14.5

a. Even more than the data on the balance on current account, caution must be exercised in using this table since there are many uncertaintiesand differences between sources. Long term capital loans to the trust fund; enterprises include both public and private. Short term capital includes net private short-term capital plus net capital movements to monetary sector plus arrears (importantstarting 1981) plus valuation adjustmentsplus some direct investment.Again, "p" stands for "provisional."

Sources are discussedin the text. 35

G. Prices and ExchangeRates

1. Price Data

The implicitprice deflator of the GDP is presented in Table G-1. It was calculated from data presented in Tables E-la and E-2. The consumer price index comes from: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Basic Social and Economic

Tables C-1: GDP Deflator and Retail Price Series-a/

GDP Retail Price Index: Antananarivo deflator Malagasy family European family

1950 52.8 36.4 1951 54.0 42.9 1952 60.6 50.7 1953 60.9 55.4 1954 66.4 56.0 1955 60.4 57.5 1856 65.9 57.6 1957 61.8 60.2 1958 68.6 64.8 1959 69.2 68.5 1960 73.1 69.6 1961 72.6 70.5 1962 75.1 72.0 1963 74.5 74.0 1964 76.8 85.5 77.6 1965 77.6 89.4 79.8 1966 80.5 92.0 82.0 1967 82.5 92.8 84.1 1968 86.8 93.6 86.4 1969 89.4 97.3 95.1 1970 100.0 100.0 100.0 1971 104.3 105.4 106.2 1972 108.7 111.3 113.0 1973 119.8 118.1 115.6 1974 143.5 144.2 127.7 1975 150.7 157.2 145.3 1976 165.5 163.9 160.4 1977 180.6 168.9 174.5 1978 192.5 180.0 187.7 1979 214.3 205.3 208.1 1980 245.9 242.7 236.0 1981 304.4 316.8 293.2 1982 389.8 416.7 382.3 1983 473.6 498.2 473.2 1984 524.1 546.9 510.0

a. Sources and methods are discussedin the text. 36

Data on Madagascar. 1950 .. 75, Technical Studies, Document 001 (Antananarivo:

1977); and from various issues of INSRE Situation 6conomigue (Antananarivo:

annual).

This consumer price index has some problems in the early years. For many

years INSRE calculated-a retail price index based on a market basket for

European households in Antananarivo; this index apparently includes certain

services as well. These data are presented in Table G-1. In the early 1970's

they also began publishinga consumer price index based on a market basket for

a Malagasy family in the same city. Although price indices were later

published for Malagasy families in the period from 1950 to 1970, (Ministryof

Finance and Planning, Basic Social and Economic Data on Madagascar. 1950 . 75,

Technical Studies, Document 001 (Antananarivo:May 1977), p. 185], for the

period before 1964 these indices were practically the same as the index for

European families and it appears that the European family consumer price index was merely chained to the index for the Malagasy family. Therefore, I have omitted such calculationsin my table.

The indices are calculatedwith 1970 - 100. The actual base in the later years is August 1971 to July 1972.

2. Exchange Rates

Up to 1972 the Malagasy currency was the same as that used in a number of the members of the former French colonies in Africa. The Malagasy franc which was created when Madagascar adopted its own currency was tied to the French franc at the same rate as the CFA franc until April 1982. Therefore, it is not necessary to make any kind of currency conversionsin Table G-2.

Calculation of the weighted exchange rates are made in three steps:

a. The weights used for exports are the averages of the annual 37

Table G-2: ExchangeRate Indicators-a/

U.S. cents/FMGexchange rate Indices of weighted rates Quoted Black Ratio of Nominal Real rate market black market rate to quoted (Decem-rates ber) 1952 0.571 122.8 71.3 1953 0.571 122.8 72.0 1954 0.571 123.1 66.6 1955 0.571 123.8 74.0 1956 0.572 123.9 71.2 1957 0.553 121.9 80.2 1958 0.476 112.7 83.3 1959 0.408 105.0 90.1 1960 0.408 105.3 87.6 1961 0.408 105.0 91.2 1962 0.408 105.0 91.5 1963 0.408 105.0 96.5 1964 0.408 105.0 97.3 1965 0.408 105.1 99.1 1966 0.407 105.3 97.7 1967 0.406 105.3 99.0 1968 0.404 105.6 97.5 1969 0.385 103.2 102.2 1970 0.362 100.0 100.0 1971 0.363 99.6 102.5 1972 0.396 101.9 102.2 1973 0.449 104.9 98.7 1974 0.415 101.8 99.1 1975 0.467 0.250 54% 107.1 100.7 1976 0.418 104.4 103.2 1977 0.407 0.448 110 102.8 105.4 1978 0.443 0.352 79 104.4 107.0 1979 0.470 0.439 93 106.0 103.8 1980 0.473 0.377 80 106.7 101.4 1981 0.368 0.260 71 99.9 98.5 1982 0.286 0.143 50 90.2 95.5 1983 0.232 0.113 49 83.6 93.9 1984 0.173 0.114 66 71.5 109.7 1985 0.145

a. The data are arranged so that a decline in any series represents a devaluation.The methods of calculationare describedin the text.

The rate of U.S. cents/MalagasyFranc is a yearly average rate and is drawn from the I.M.F., International Financial Statistics. Yearbook 1985 (Washington,D.C.: 1985), p. 420-1 and is the inverse of series "af." Other sources and methods are discussed in the text. 38

percentages of total exports with Madagascar's20 leading export partners for

the period from 1960 through 1984. The weights used for imports are the

averages of the annual percentages of total imports with Madagascar's 32

leading import partners. In both cases trade with the socialist countries of

Eastern Europe and China were excluded. The countries included in the index

representmore than 90 percent of Madagascar'strade.

b. For the nominal weighted exchange rates, the exchange rates are

series "af" drawn from the International Monetary Fund, International

Financial Statistics,various issues including the exchange rate supplement.

For the series presented in the table, the exports and imports series are

averaged to obtain a single nominal weighted exchange rate.

c. The nominal exchange rates for each country are divided by the

GDP deflators for the respectivecountries, combined by the trade weights, and

compared with the GDP deflator for Madagascar to obtain the "real" exchange

rates. For some of the less important trade partners, such GDP deflators are not available for all years (especially during the early period) and,

therefore, the consumer price indices are spliced into series; any errors

introduced by this procedure should be quite unimportant. The series for exports and for imports are then averaged to obtain a single index.

Almost all of the data used in these calculationscome from the I.M.F., op. cit.. In several cases, some data are drawn from national sources. For

Madagascar the GDP deflator presented in Table G-1 is used.

The black market exchange rate is a result of barriers to the transferability of the Malagasy franc. These black market rates are for

Antananarivo are were supplied by Philip P. Cowitt of InternationalCurrency

Analysis, Inc. who, in turn, obtained them from confidential sources in

Madagascar. 39

H. Labor Force and Wages in the Modern Sector

1. Modern Sector

Data on the labor force in the modern sector are collected by three different agencies [Banque des donnees d'etat, Caisse nationale de pr6voyance socialeCNAPS), and Ministere du travail et des lois sociale), the statistics are neither complete nor consistent.The data from CNAPS are probably the most complete.The modern sector seems to be defined according to those workers in which the collectingagency is interested.Thus the CNAPS data thus cover all those who are eligible for social insurance.

In Table H-1 I drawn upon several different sources. The data on the

"total private sector" come from Ministere du travail, Les salaries A

Madagascar.1960 - 1970 (Antananarivo:n.d.). There appears to be a change in the system of reporting employment around 1965 and the series may not be completely comparable.The same source reports employment in the government sector from 1965 through 1970 which appears sufficientlyout of line with the other data in this table that they are not included.

Data on "employment"for 1960 come from: Commissariatgeneral au plan,

Economie Malgache: Evolution 1950 - 60 (Antananaarivo:June 1962), p. 53. The remaining data come from an undated memorandum from the Caisse nationale de prevoyance sociale (CNAPS) and must be considered provisional. From 1974 through 1977 the data are yearly average; for the remaining years they are fourth quarter data.

Finally data on "industrialworkers" come from various issues of: INSRE,

Recensement industriel (Antananarivo:annual). The sectors include manufacturing,mining, and utilities.The wage data exclude all social payments.The data do not appear completelycomparable from year to year.

2. The Minimu Wage

The minimum wage (SMIG: Salaire minimum interporfessionnelgaranti) is 40

actually a structure of minimum wages for particular positions. Table H-2 focuses only on the wages in the lowest categories. The data come from:

Commissariat general au plan, Economie malgache: Evolution 1950 - 1960

(Antananarivo:June 1962), p. 238; a variety of scattered sources; and statistical materials supplied to me by Guy Pourcet of the University of Paris X

(Nanterre).

Table H-1: The Labor Force and Wages in the "Modern Sector"-/

Total private sector Employment (100O's) Industrialworkers Number of Average Private Govern- Total EmploymentAverage employers annual sector ment (1000's) annual and em- wages and Agri- Non- sector wage ployees salaries cul- agri- (1000 FMG) (1000's) (1000 FMG) ture cul- ture

1960 197.8 78.3 44.7 112.5 47.6 204.9 1961 193.1 79.6 1962 181.9 78.3 1963 202.6 81.5 1964 199.1 89.1 1965 194.8 93.5 1966 204.6 92.2 36.3 129.3 1967 236.2 96.6 1968 236.8 102.4 1969 239.8 101.7 1970 257.7 101.6 41.7 167.2 1971 44.9 165.9 1972 45.0 182.8 1973 n.a. 46.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1974 204.2 50.1 254.3 51.2 240.2 1975 200.5 n.a. n.a. 47.4 281.2 1976 198.4 n.a. n.a. 49.3 285.3 1977 200.1 58.0. 258.1 50.3 311.0 1978 53.9 159.4 69.1. 282.4 51.6 344.6 1979 55.8 161.7 76.7 294.2 50.6 374.9 1980 56.5 177.0 86.7 320.2 n.a. n.a. 1981 56.7 185.4 95.7 337.7 52.5 488.6 1982 57.5 179.8 98.8 336.1 50.9 546.5 1983 59.1 188.1 101.8 349.1 59.2 470.9 1984 57.9 190.2 104.8 352.9 60.7 503.0

a. Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 41

3. Emplovment«at Unemployment

Data are availableon those registeredas looking for work in the urban areas. In Table H-3 the data for 1919 through 1981 come from: Ministare du

Table H-2: The Evolutionof the Minimum Hourly Wage (SKIG)-A/ (MalagasyFranc)

Year Antananarivo(non-agriculture) Antananarivo Toliary Current 1970 prices (suburbs;ag- (agriculture) prices riculture)

1950 9.2 18.6 6.61 4.10 1951 10.0 18.6 7.10 4.10 1952 14.2 23.0 11.20 5.70 1953 15.0 23.3 12.50 6.25 1954 21.0 31.0 14.00 9.50 1955 21.0 32.2 14.00 9.50 1956 21.0 30.7 14.00 9.50 1957 21.3 31.5 14.10 9.70 1958 24.0 32.5 15.00 11.50 1959 27.0 35.4 16.00 13.00 1960 27.0 34.2 16.00 13.00 1961 27.0 34.1 1962 27.0 33.1 1963 29.0 35.3 1964 30.0 35.1 1965 30.0 33.6 1966 30.0 32.6 1967 30.0 32.3 1968 30.0 32.1 1969 30.0 30.8 1970 30.0 30.0 1971 32.0 30.4 1972 32.0 28.8 1973 34.0 28.8 1974 34.0 23.6 1975 34.0 21.6 1976 34.0 20.7 1977 34.0 20.1 1978 57.8 32.1 1979 57.8 28.2 1980 66.3 27.3 1981 66.3 20.9 1982 91.8 22.0 1983 91.8 18.4 1984 107.1 19.6

a. Sources are discussed in the text. The SMIG in constant 1970 prices is derived from the cost of living index (Table G-1) from 1964-84 and, for the period from 1950 -1964, from the arithmetic average of the cost of living index for European families and the GDP deflator. 42

travail et des lois sociales, Statistiguedu march6 du travail (Antananarivo: irregular). This series was extended by use of a closely moving series reported in World Bank, The Democratic ReRublic of Madagascar: Country Econo- mic Memorandum,Report 5996-MAG (Washington,D.C.: March 1986).

Table H-3: Registered Urban Unemployment-a/

1969 10,931 1977 47,901 1970 9,704 1978 40,088 1971 10,456 1979 44,280 1972 13,604 1980 44,899 1973 18,926 1981 31,649 1974 14,449 1982 27,712 1975 14,357 1983 31,554 1976 30,398 1984 31,032

a. Urban unemployment is defined as those registered in urban areas as "looking for work." Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 43

I. The Distributionof Family Income

1. The Distributionof Family Income, 1962

The size distributionof personal incomes for 1962 is estimated from the results from two budget surveys: one covering smallholders,the other covering families in the six largest cities. Estimationswere made for family income in the secondaryurban centers.

a. The Rural Sector

For the rural sector the income estimates presented in Table I-1 come from a sample survey reported in: Patrick J. Fran9ois (Commissariatgeneral au plan, INSRE), Budgets et alimentationsdes m6nages ruraux: Rapport de synthese

(Paris: Imprimerie SPIT, 1967), p. 35. The data cover both monetary and non- monetary income; although he does not specify the income concept very precisely , he does note (in Volume 3 of the same series) that 8.8 percent of such income represents receipts used to purchase agriculturalinputs, i.e.,

Table I-1: Unadjusted Rural Incomes in 1962 (FMG)-A/

Yearly income Families Average Average income (1000 FMG) 1000 FMG family Total Of which Note: size monetary income direct taxes

0 - 23.9 1,454 3.16 22.8 0.8 0.00 24.0 - 35.9 225,849 3.91 30.6 5.2 1.53 35.0 - 47.9 351,056 4.55 44.5 15.4 3.60 48.0 - 59.9 182,790 4.73 55.3 25.5 3.87 60.0 - 74.9 109,753 5.20 68.3 35.7 4.30 75.0 - 89.9 76,885 5.37 84.6 51.0 4.40 90.0 - 125.9 59,696 5.74 110.9 78.6 4.77 126.0 - 209.9 36,212 5.82 166.2 136.1 6.32 210.0 - 491.9 9,721 5.31 315.6 296.6 11.36 492.0 and over 2,360 5.60 833.4 823.9 25.00

1,055,779 4.69 60.9 31.8 3.41

a. Sources and methods are explained in the text. The direct taxes are calcualted by applying the percentage of "pression fiscale sur revenue total sur tous les menages" on average family income. The exact content of this tax component is unexplained in the original source. 44

the income concept appears gross, rather than net. Since total agricultural

incomes are roughly 3 percent below personal incomes in the rural sector which

are reported in the national accounts, apparently some agricultural income

(probablyhome produced goods) are omitted.

b. The Urban Sector

The income data for the six largest cities come from: Minist&ee des

finances et du commerce, INSRE, Enguete sur ke budgets familia n milieu

urbain malgache (Antananarivo:1963). These percentage data, converted into

absolute amounts, are presented in Table I-2.

Table I-2: Unadjusted 1962 Data on Family Income in the Six Large Cities-a/

Yearly income Families Average income (1000 FMG) (percent) (1000 FMG)

0 - 23.9 1722 16.6 24.0 - 35.9 2727 31.5 36.0 - 47.9 4234 40.5 48.0 - 59.9 4449 54.6 60.0 - 71.9 5740 64.8 72.0 - 83.9 4736 75.5 84.0 - 95.9 3875 88.6 96.0 - 107.9 4305 99.6 108.0 - 125.9 2583 110.7 126.0 - 149.9 7247 132.2 150.0 - 179.9 6888 159.9 180.0 - 209.9 3731 195.5 210.0 - 239.9 2798 219.7 240.0 - 269.9 2511 250.5 270.0 - 299.9 1435 289.0 300.0 - 359.9 3588 326.7 360.0 - 419.9 1579 371.4 420.0 - 479.9 1435 438.5 480.0 - 539.9 1005 526.7 540.0 - 599.9 1076 558.0 600.0 - 719.9 1076 637.8 720.0 - 839.9 933 766.5 840.0 - 959.0 718 896.8 960.0 - 1079.9 502 1025.0 1080.0 - 1199.0 287 1195.8 1200.0 and over 574 1943.2

Total 71755 199.3

a. Sources and methods are described in the text. 45

Again, the exact meaning of the income concept is not given in the source, nor are the methods used in collecting the data specified very clearly. Some non-monetary income is included, but it appears that certain home produced goods for consumptionare excluded.

c. Estimation of Income Distributionin Small Towns

There are no official estimates of average incomes in secondary urban centers in 1962. However, estimates can be made from two types of information:

First, such data are available for a later year, 1980 [Banque des donnees de

1'etat, Enguete sur les budgets des menages. Revenue: Milieu rural et centres urbains secondaires. (Antananarivo: 1987)]. Second, in 1980 the ratio of average incomes in these secondary urban centers to average incomes in the largest cities was about 77 percent. By assuming that the same ratio held in

1962 and by assuming that the Gini coefficient of income inequality in the secondary urban centers remained the same in the two years, an estimated income distribution for 1962 was calculated. Any errors involved in this procedure should not greatly influence the overall results since the relative number of families living in these small towns was not a large percentage of the total population.

d. Estimation of the Combined Income Distribution

In calculatingthe combined income distribution,two types of adjustments were made to the data presented above:

Since the two income surveys were taken before the 1965 population survey [INSRE, Enguete d6mograDhiQue.Madagascar 1966 (Antananarivo:August

1967)], it seemed useful to adjust to number of families in each sector to correspond to a more accurate estimate of the population. My calculationsare based on the sources used in estimating the urban-rural population data presented in Table B-4. For the rural sector I used the average family size 46

taken from Table I-1 above. For the primary and secondary urban sectors I

assumed that the average tamily size was the same as in 1975 [INSRE,Recense- ment 1975. Serie etudes et analyse: Les menages (Antananarivo:n.d.).

Estimate A of the income distribution is made from the data

discussed above without any adjustments of income. However, the aggregate

rural and urban incomes from the budget surveys (and estimates for the

secondary urban sector) do not correspond to the aggregate personal incomes

as reported in the national accounts data [INSRE, Comptes economiques de

Madagascar en 1962 (Antananarivo:n.d.), p. 22]. This source places total

Malagasy personal incomes in the rural sector at 63.6 billion FMG and total

personal incomes in the urban sector at 39.3 billion FMG (European incomes

accounted for an additional 26.2, but these are not included in the budget

surveys).Estimate B of the income distributionis made by adjusting the rural

and urban income data so the totals roughly equal the relevant national

account aggregates. This meant reducing agriculturalincomes by 3 percent in

each income size category and increasingurban incomes by 55 percent in each

income size categories.

A summary of the basic parameters of the two income distribution

estimates are presented in Table I-3. The actual income distributionswere

made using 21 income categories ( which required disaggregating the

agriculturalincome distributioninto smaller income size categories)and then

combining the results. These results for both estimatesA and B are presented

in Table I-4. This table is condensedinto a distributionby deciles in Table

I-4 and finally, a summary of the income inequality statistics, is shown in

Table I-5.

If estimate A represents an understatementof actual income inequality,

estimate B represents somewhat of an overstatementso that the actual degree

of income inequality lies somewhere in between. Some idea of the meaning of 47

these results can be gained by comparing them with two previous calculations.

The pioneering estimate of the distributionof income in Madagascar was

constructed for 1960 by Christian Morrisson,La repartitiondes revenues dans

les pavs du tiers-monde (Paris: Edition Cujas, 1968); his estimate, reworked by Shail Jane, Size Distributionof Income:A Compilationof Data (Washington,

D.C.: World Bank, 1973) yields a Gini coefficient of 0.56 . Another estimate

for 1960 was made by Irma Adleman and Cynthia Taft Morris, "An Anatomy of

Patterns of Income Distribution,"(unpublished paper) and has been reworked by

Felix Paukert, " Income Distribution at Different Levels of Development: A

Survey of Evidence," International Labour Review, 108, No. 2-3

(August/September1973), pp. 97 - 127; it yields a Gini coefficientof 0.53 .

Table I-3: Total Family Income-a/

1962: Estimate A: 1980 Sector Number of Total fam- Average Number of Total fam- Average families ily incomes family families ily incomes family (billion FMG) income (billionFMG) income (1000 FMG) (1000 FMG)

Total 1211.7 90.9 75.0 1910.8 452.8 237.0 Rural 1076.2 65.5 60.9 1542.9 297.6 192.9 Urban: Big 98.9 19.7 199.3 227.3 105.2 462.7 towns Small 36.6 5.6 153.6 140.5 50.0 356.2 towns

1962: Estimate B.

Total 1211.7 102.8 84.9 Rural 1076.2 63.5 59.1 Urban: Big 98.9 30.5 308.9 towns Small 36.6 8.7 238.1 towns

a. Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 48

Table I-4: Income Distribution:All Sectors, 1962-a/

Yearly income Estimate A: Estimate BL 1000 FMG Families Average incomes Families Average incomes (1000 FMG) (1000 FMG)

0 - 23.9 5,428 20.2 1,482 22.1 24.0 - 35.9 237,895 30.7 234,170 29.7 36.0 - 47.9 363,691 44.4 365,528 43.3 48.0 - 59.9 192,462 55.3 186,331 53.6 60.0 - 74.9 125,494 67.9 117,713 66.1 75.0 - 89.9 90,717 84.0 84,506 82.3 90.0 - 107.9 33,481 97.9 34,250 97.8 108.0 - 125.9 47,032 116.4 52,560 116.0 126.0 - 149.9 24,986 135.4 25,064 141.5 150.0 - 179.9 23,724 162.5 19,034 165.3 180.0 - 209.9 20,836 194.5 25,242 197.7 210.0 - 299.9 17,473 251.3 15,732 247.7 300.0 - 419.9 13,891 354.7 27,282 353.2 420.0 - 479.9 2,021 438.7 - - 480.0 - 599.9 3,636 540.5 8,657 543.2 600.0 - 719.9 2,250 639.8 2,380 673.0 720.0 - 839.9 2,052 768.9 4,034 816.9 840.0 - 959.9 1,755 899.1 - - 960.0 - 1079.9 1,276 1026.0 2,653 999.8 1080.0 - 1199.9 796 1153.6 1,651 1187.6 1200 and over 791 1943.2 3,417 1872.8

Total 1,211,687 75.0 1,211,687 84.9

a. Sources and methods are discussed in the text.

Table I-5: Estimated Income Distributionby Deciles, 1962 and 1980--/

Cumulativeper- Cumulativepercentage of gross income cent of popula- 1962: 1962: 1980 tion arranged in Estimate A Estimate B order of increasing incomes

20% 8.1% 7.0% 5.0% 40 18.6 16.2 13.7 60 32.8 28.5 27.1 80 51.0 42.5 47.6 90 64.2 57.3 62.9 95 74.3 68.0 73.7 99 88.9 85.8 91.1 100 100.0 100.0 100.0

a. Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 49

It is unfortunate that the exact estimation methods and sources of these other estimates are not clearly spelled out in the materials available to me.

Apparently Morrisson utilized certain fiscal data, an estimate of a subsis- tence income, and certain aggregative data to determine average incomes in urban and rural areas. Neither of the sources used the Francois study nor the

I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Table I-6: Income Inequality Statistics-a/

Groups of families Number Average Inegualitv coefficients (1000) total Gini Theil Log income variance

1962 EstimatesA (1000 FMG)

Rural 1076.2 60.9 .290 .194 .220 Secondaryurban centers 36.6 153.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. Largest six towns 98.9 199.3 .500 .466 .806

Total/average 1211.7 75.0 .391 .371 .352

Assuming all incomes in a 1211.7 75.0 .168 .106 .125 group equal to mean of group

1962: Estimates B

Rural sector 1076.2 59.1 .290 .194 .220 Secondaryurban centers 36.6 238.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. Largest six towns 98.9 308.9 .500 .466 .806

Total/average 1211.7 84.9 .460 .532 .545

Assuming all incomes in a 1211.7 84.9 .271 .247 .250 group equal to mean of group

1980 Rural sector 1542.9 192.9 .435 .329 .517 Secondaryurban centers 140.5 356.2 .487 .399 .747 Largest seven towns 227.3 462.7 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Total/average 1910.8 237.0 .489 .426 .628

Assuming all incomes in a 1910.8 237.0 .154 .065 .096 group equal to mean of group

a. Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 50 survey data which which I have used were employed. I suspect that both

included incomes of Europeans in the urban income estimates. In any case, their estimates appear much more tentative than mine; the highly uncertain nature of the estimates by both Morrisson and Paukert is best revealed by the

fact that in a later study which they jointly wrote [along with Jacques

Lecaillon and Dimitri Germidis, Income Distributionand Economic DeveloDment:

An Analytical Survey (Geneva: InternationalLabour Office, 1984)], Madagascar is omitted from mention.

2. The Distributionof Family Income, 1980

a. Rural Sector and SecondaryUrban Sector

A budgetary survey for both the rural sector and the secondary urban sector for 1980 has been recently published (Banquedes donnees de l1'tat, 2pL cit.); these data are presented in Table I-7. Although the income concept is not clearly specify, non-monetary income is definitely included in the rural estimates;for reasons specifiedbelow, it also appears that income concept is highly gross and contains receipts used for the purchase of agricultural inputs. The secondary urban centers exclude the seven largest cities (in contrast to 1962 when they exclude the six largest cities).

In determining the change in average real rural incomes from 1962 to

1960, problems arose. I deflated such incomes in current prices with a price index (the average of the GDP deflator and the retail price index) from Table

G-1, and found an increase of roughly 14 percent. However, I also determined the change in average real productionper family in the primary sector for the same period (using production data from Table E-2) and found an decrease of roughly the same percentage. Since real agricultural prices did not appreciably change between the two years (Table C-1), two possible explan- ations can be given to explain this obvious discrepancy:

i) Agriculturalincomes were overstatedin 1980. This could arise if 51

income was defined in a more gross manner in 1980 than in 1962 so that the

share of income accounted for by the purchases of agricultural inputs was

appreciably larger in the latter year. Unfortunately, I could obtain no

informationabout these differentdefinitions of income from statisticiansin

the Malagasy government.The few Malagasy economistswith whom I discussedthe problem all dismissedthe possibilitythat net agriculturalincomes could have

increasedbetween the two years.

ii) The production was underestimatedin 1980. This could arise if

the statisticalservice undercountedactual farm area or underestimatedland productivity. Given the decline in the quality of the statistical service between 1962 and 1980, this is a distinct possibility.

Having no method of resolving the matter in the calculation of the

overall income distribution,I chose an intermediatepath, namely to reduce

Table I-7: UnadjustedData on Family Income, 1980-a/ Yearly income Rural Secondaryurban centers 1000 FMG Families Average Families Average incomes incomes (1000 FMG) (1000 FMG)

0 - 49.9 65,375 37.8 4,197 33.1 50.0 - 99.9 247,881 78.5 10,445 76.6 100.0 - 149.9 298,274 125.4 10,738 123.0 150.0 - 199.9 217,917 173.0 12,885 175.4 200.0 - 249.9 149,818 222.8 11,323 230.3 250.0 - 299.9 104,873 227.0 8,688 268.1 300.0 - 349.9 73,547 336.1 7,419 328.0 350.0 - 399.9 54,479 368.7 5,369 375.6 400.0 - 449.9 39,498 406.8 5,174 416.6 450.0 - 499.9 23,154 493.8 3,416 488.5 500.0 - 599.9 29,964 526.0 5,369 531.0 600.0 - 699.9 19,068 632.0 2,831 663.2 700.0 - 799.9 10,896 730.0 2,343 742.0 800.0 - 899.9 6,810 828.6 976 819.3 900.0 - 999.9 2,724 972.4 2,050 949.8 1000.0 and over 17,706 1876.2 4,393 1780.7

1,360,983 227.1 97,616 356.2

a. Sources and methods are described in the text. 52 the average incomes in each size class by 15 percent.

The income concept is also not spelled out for the secondary urban centers. It does not appear, however, that home produced goods (e.g., agriculturalproducts) for consumptionwere included.

b. Seven Large Cities

In 1977/78 INSRE made a family budget survey in the seven largest cities.

Although certain data have been published [INSRE, Enguete sur les budgets des menages. Milie urbain. 1977-78: M6thodologie (Antananarivo:February 1978) and INSRE, Enguete sur les budgets familiaux. milie urbain. 1977-1979.

Resultats Drovisoires (Antananarivo:n.d.)] a size distribution has not yet been published nor, I was told, have the data yet been processed to determine such a distribution.

In examining the available data such as the average income for various socio-economicgroups within the seven cities, two problem arise. First, the income totals do not quite equal the weighted averages of the incomes of the individualgroups. Second, the income concept does not appear to include goods produced at home for consumption.

To estimate the distribution of income in the seven largest cities, I started with an average income for the seven cities (determined as the weighted average of the individual socio-economic groups in each city), assumed that average real urban incomes remained the same between 1977/8 and

1980, and inflated by a retail price index to obtain an estimated average annual family income in 1980 of 462,700 FMG. Using income distribution data for the secondaryurban centers in 1980, as well as the six largest cities in

1962, I estimated an income distributionsuch that the Gini coefficient was roughly the same in 1962 as in 1980.

c.cstimation ifnhe Combine Income Distribution

I calculated an income distributionfor the entire country by combining 53

the adjusted income distributionfor the rural area, the data in Table 1-7 for the secondary urban centers, and the estimated data for the seven largest cities. The basic income parameters are presented in Table I-3; the actual data, in Table I-8; the decile distribution,in Table I-5; and the inequality statistics,1-6.

The aggregated family incomes from such a calculationare 452.8 billion

FMG. From the GNP accounts, the GNP at factor prices is 619.8 billion FMG, determinedby taking the GDP in market prices (Table E-1) and subtractingan estimate of total indirect taxes (Table K-1). If we assume (no data are available) that depreciation,undistributed profits, and other expenditures accounting for differencesbetween national income and personal income are 12 percent of national income, then my personal income estimate from the budget

Table I-8: EstimatedIncome Distribution:All Sectors, 1980-a/

Yearly income Families Average income (1000 FMG) 1000 FMG

0 - 49.9 87,717 32.7 50 - 99.9 319,034 68.3 100 - 149.9 619,774 124.0 150 - 199.9 221,392 189.5 200 - 249.9 159,721 233`8 250 - 299.0 110,033 285.3 300 - 349.9 117,143 327.1 350 - 399.9 27,845 358.4 400 - 449.9 73,874 430.8 450 - 499.9 21,852 466.4 500 -599.9 56,151 549.9 600 - 699.9 24,134 654.5 700 - 799.9 6,669 723.0 800 - 899.9 15,401 814.1 900 - 999.9 4,088 941.5 1000 - 1249.9 8,566 1141.6 1250 - 1499.9 7,202 1454.4 1500 and over 30,164 2060.5

Total/average 1,910,760 237.0

a. Sources and methods are discussedin the text. 54 data are 83 percent of this total. Assuming that my estimate for rural incomes is correct, this means that average urban incomes must be increasedby roughly

60 percent to account for all personal income.

A variety of different income distributions could be calculated using different assumptions in order to make the proper adjustment. Of greatest importance is that the 1980 estimates appear much more comparable with 1962

Estimate A, rather than the adjusted data used for Estimate B. 55

J. Education and Health

1. Stock of Education

Data on the stock of education for Madagascar as a whole are relatively scarce. Some data on illiteracy, defined as the inability to write, are presented in Table J-1. These data come from: Ministere des finances et du commerce and Institut national de la statistique et de la recherche

6conomique, Enguete demographique. Madagascar 1966 (Antananarivo: August

1967), pp. 60 and 63. Data on illiteracy in the urban areas at a later date are presented in: INSRE, Recensement 1975: Serie etudes et analyse, Analyse des donnees socio-economiques:milieu urbain (Antananarivo:n.d.).

2. School Enrollment and EnrollmentRatios

A time series on school enrollment and enrollment ratios is presented in

Table J-2. The bulk of the data come from Direction generale du plan, Donn6es de base sur la societe et l14conomie de Madagascar. 1950. 1975: Version nreliminaire(Antananaraivo: 1976) and Minister of Finance and Planning, Basic

Social and Economic Data on Madagascar. Technical Studies, Document 001

(Antananarivo:1977). For the later years the data come from: World Bank:

Table J-1: Estimatesof Illiteracyin 1966-a/

Men Women Total

Over 24 years old 53.2% 78.6% 66.5%

Over 14 years old: total 50 71 61 Antananarivo 23 44 34 Fianarantsoa 53 77 66 Toamasina 55 80 68 Mahajunga 59 82 71 Antsiranana 52 77 65 Toliary 75 85 80

a. The source and methods are described in the text. No comparable data for other years are available. 56

Madagascar: Recent Economic Developments and Future Prospects (Washington,

D.C.: 1980), p. 128; Madagascar: Economic Memorandum, Report 3389-MAG (Wash- ington, D.C.: 1981), p. 97; and UNESCO, Division du financement de l'education, Republique d6mocratique de Madagascar: Priorit6s. contraintes et

Table J-2: Students and Enrollment Ratios-a/

Students in. Enrollment ratios: Grades 1 Grades 7 Grades 1 Grades 7 through 6 through 12 through 6 through 12

1950 236,000 11,425 37.8% 2.0% 1951 253,000 8,860 39.8 1.6 1952 255,000 11,385 39.3 2.0 1953 253,000 13,228 38.2 2.3 1954 275,000 12,816 40.7 2.2 1955 288,000 13,530 41.8 2.3 1956 309,000 15,317 44.0 2.6 1957 321,000 17,053 43.6 2.8 1958 370,000 19,116 47.9 3.1 1959 411,625 21,826 50.9 3.5 1960 446,000 26,721 52.6 4.1 1961 502,475 n.a. 56.6 n.a. 1962 549,770 34,872 60.1 5.1 1963 595,642 41,637 63.2 5.7 1964 634,546 47,488 65.3 6.2 1965 653,675 46,436 65.3 5.8 1966 667,226 59,608 64.7 7.1 1967 771,949 67,030 73.2 7.8 1968 837,601 77,702 77.8 8.9 1969 884,681 85,278 80.4 9.5 1970 938,000 101,412 83.4 11.1 1971 1,004,693 105,310 87.4 11.3 1972 1,030,342 92,823 87.8 9.7 1973 1,038,000 114,468 86.5 11.7 1974 1,133,000 131,900 92.4 13.2 1975 1,209,841 151,162 96.6 14.9 1976 1,329,510 164,699 103.1 15.7 1977 1,398,936 181,571 105.4 16.9 1978 1,426,158 n.a. 104.3 n.a...... 1984 1,724,433 417,214 105.9 32.0

a. The data include both public and private schools. For the primary grades the enrollment ratios in the late 1970's are greater than 100% because some children out-of-age may be attending school and some children in pre- primary classes may also be included. Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 57

Rerspective du developpement de 1'education,Vol. I, ASM/ED/EPP/017 (Paris:

1984). For 1984 adjustmentsof the original data were made to include the data for the 6th grade in the primary, rather than the secondary schools. Data on attendence is available between 1978 and 1983 [UNESCO, Madagascar: Rapport d'6valuationgan6rale du systeme 6ducatife (Paris: 1984), p. A/14] but I was told that they are not completely comparable.

3. Health Indicators:Mortality Data

The data from the system of civil registration of births and deaths,

installed many decades ago by the colonial government, are generally

considered quite,,accuratebecause many births, expecially of infants who die

after a short period, are not registered.A decentralizationof the system in

1972 to the authority of local officials resulted in a further

deterioritation.A restructuringof the statisticalsystem in the early 1980's has resulted in a more thorough coverage, although infant deaths still appear

underreported.

The 1966 demographic sample survey [INSRE, Enguete d6mograDhigue:

Madagascar 1966 (Antananarivo:August 1967), pp. 70, 72] reported an infant

mortality of 102.1 per 1000, a figure which was almost twice the level of 53

recorded by the registrationsystem [INSRE,Etude sur la poRulation de Madaga-

scar (Antananarivo:1974)]. According to adjustmentsof the table based on the

age structure of the population [M; Rabetsitonta, "Adjustment de la table de

mortalite de Madagascar observee en 1966," Revue de d6graDhie, 3/1977, pp. 88

- 113], infant morality for males and females was 166 for the period 1962 - 67

and 152 for 1967 - 72.

Estimates of infant mortality for the early 1970's also showed a wide

variation, but most estimates other than the system of civil registration

[e.g., INSRE, J. niveau de la mortalit Madazascar en 1972 (Antananarivo:

n.d.), p. 16] placed such deaths at over 100 per 1000. However, the 1975 58

census calculated such deaths for 1974/75 at 67.6 per 1000 [INSRE,Recensement

1975. See etudes et analyse: Enguete Rost-censitaire(Antananarivo: n.d.), pp.

16, 20]. Using estimatesof fertilityand age structuredata from this census, a French demographerhas recently estimated an infant mortality for 1965 of roughly 160 per 1000; I have reviewed his calculations and they appear

reasonable. (His estimate were made for an internationalorganization which supplied this report to me on the condition that the exact source not be cited).

A similar lack of certainty about infant mortality occurs for estimates for recent years. According to the system of civil registration, infant mortaltiy was 72.6 per 1000 in 1980 and 91.9 per 1000 in 1981 [reportedby

AndrianariveloRafrezy and Iarivony Randretsa, PoRulation de Madagascar: Si- tuation actuelle et RersRectives d'avenir (Antananarivo:Ministere de la recherche scientifiqueet technologiquepour le developpement,January 1985). p. 77]. The increase may well have represented the changes in the reporting system and not the actual situation. One estimate which was based on the household budget survey of 1980 placed infant mortality in that year at 64.7 per 1000 [Ibid]. Another estimate based on the same data placed infant mortality "at least" at 109 [reportedby World Bank, PoRulation and Health

Sector Review, Report 6446-MAG (Washington,D.C.: October 1986)]. Using the socio-demographicsurvey of 1984 the World Bank [ibid.] estimated an infant mortalityof 126 per 1000 for 1982/83, a datum called "conservative."

Still another estimate can be made on the basis of the population age structure and the fertility rate. These appear to have remained roughly the same between 1975 and 1985 (e.g., the World Bank, 2p, cit.,, has estimated fertility has risen from 6.4 children per woman in 1975 to 6.6 children per woman in 1985; and the number of children under 10 from 32.6 percent to 33.6 59 percent). Given the estimate of infant mortality of roughly 160 per thousand which was calculated for 1975 using these data, there is no reason to believe that the infant mortality is very much different in 1985.

Life expectancy estimates are, of course, extremely sensitive to the infant mortality rate. Given the uncertainties about the rate of infant mortality, I have not presented data on this matter in the text.

4. Health Data: Birth Weights

Preliminary results from a nationwide survey on 1855 children which was carried out in 1981 [WHO, Study of the EpidemiologicalAspects of Breast-

Feeding in Madagascar, Project 62/MAFA/WHO,Preliminary Report (Antananarivo: n.d.] revealed that 14.4 percent had a birth weight under 2500 grams; this is the estimate used in the text. For the first half of 1984 the Ministry of

Health reported a datum for the same phenomenon of 11 percent. Still other surveys of particular areas yielded other results: For instance, according to

Florette Ralaiavy [Malnutritioninfantile proteino-energatiqueau centre de

SMI de la ville de Mahaianga (Antananarivo:These, Doctorat en m6decine,

Universit6 de Madagascar, 1981)], 19 percent of the babies in his sample in

1980 had a birth weight of less than 2500 grams. According to Simon Christo- phe Rakotonirina [ApRrochenutritionnelle des enfants d'age pr6scolaire dans le Firaisana d'Ambatofiandraha (Antananrivo: Th&se, Doctorat en m6decine,

Universit6 de Madagascar,1983) 27.5 percent of his sample of urban babies and

32.0 percent of his sample of babies in villages had birth weighs of under

2500 grams.

5. Health Data: Indicators of Nutrition

Madagascar has no nationwide surveys of malnutrition; nevertheless a number of such surveys have been made for specific areas. Surveys of such studies have been made by: Roger Andrianasolo,Rapport de synth6se s des

6tudes de la nutrition Droteino-6neraftigue d Madagascar (Antananarivo: 60

typescriptfor the Ministry of Health, 1986) and World Bank (F,. cit.. Both of these surveys are, however, incomplete since they omit a number of doctoral theses of the College of Medicine of the University of Madagascar. Unfortu- nately, many of these theses are unavailableat the library of the College of

Medicine or the National Library. The results reported in Table J-3 cover certain studies taken outside of regular hospitals but do not by any means represent a complete survey of the studieswhich have been made.

Table J-3: UndernutritionDataA/

Source and Area and year Percentageof children under norm: ages (in Weight Length Weight/length months) <80 % <90 % <80% <80 % <60 % limit limit limit limit limit

A. 0 to 60 Antsirabe,rural; 34.1 % 60.8 % - 0.8 % - June/July 1984

B. 0 to 60 Antsirabe,urban; 28.8 51.5 - 0.6 - 1984

B. 0 to 60 Toamasina,urban; 38.0 33.0 - 3.5 - early or mid 1980's

C. Unknown Antananarivo,rural 33.8 - - - and urban; 1974

D. 0 - 24 Nationwide,half 31.0 - rural, half urban; Sept. 1983

E. 0 - 60 Fianarantsoa,urban 26.9 - and rural; early 1980's

F. 0 - 60 Fianarantsoa,rural; 65.1 - 1982

F. Unknown Lac Alaotra area; 48.0 29.6 date unknown

G. 0 - 60 Ambatofinandraha, 67.0 - 33.0 rural; 1962

a. The sources are specifiedin the text of the appendix. 61

The sources for Table J-3 are:

A. Marie Jeanne Andriamanga, RaRport sur l'enguete de nutrition.

Antsirabe (Antananarivo:UNICEF, November 1984).

B. UNICEF, Survie et developpement de l'enfant malzache:

Propositions Rour un financement suRDl1mentaire. 1986- 1990 (Antananarivo:

December 1985).

C. World Bank, Madagascar: Population and Health Sector Review,

Report No. 6446-MAG (Washington,D.C.: October 1986).

D. WHO, Study of the EpidemiologicalAsRects of Breast-Feeding in

Madagascar,Project 62/MAFA/WHO,Preliminary Report (Antananarivo:n.d.).

E. Ramasavololona Raminoarimalala,Enguete nutritionelle chez les enfants de moins de six ans A Fianarantsoa, These, Doctorat en m6decine,

Universit6 de Madagascar (Antananarivo:1985). I removed the data for children over 5 and recalculatedhis results.

F. Roger Andrianasolo, RapRort de synth&se sur des 6tudes de la nutrition Droteino-6nergftigueA Madagascar (MinistAre de sante, typescript,

April 1986).

G. Simon Christophe Rakotonirina, AgDroche nutritionnelle des enfants d'age prescolaire dans le Firaisana d'Ambatofinandraha(These , Doc- torat en medecine, Universite de Madagascar (Antananarivo:1983).

6. Health Data: Health Personnel

Certain data on health personnel are presented in Table J-4 and J-5.

These data are drawn from a number of different sources and, for the overlap years, they are sometimes conflicting.Also, several different types of totals are used, without any indication of what type of personnel are included in each. For this reason I have designated "narrow" and "wide" definitions.

The sources used include: France, Haut commisariat a Madagascar et 62

dependence, Annuaire statistique de Madagascar: 1938 - 1951 (Antananarivo:

Imprimerie officielle, 1953); Commissairiatg6n6ral au plan, Economie malgache: Evolution 1950 _ 1960 (Antananarivo:June 1963); Minister of Finance and Planning, (Directiong6ndral du plan), Basic Social and Economic Data in

Madagascar. 1950 _ 75, Technical Studies, Document 001 (Antananarivo:May

1977); INSRE, Inventaire socio-6conomiguede Madagascar. 1960 - 64 (Antanana- rivo: n.d.); INSRE, Inventaire socio-6conomigue1964 - 68 (Antananarivo: n.d.); U.N. Fund for Population Activity, Madagascar. Report of Mission n

Needs Assessment for PopulationAssistance (NY: March 1979); and MinistAre de sante, Le medecin de soins a Madagascar (Antananarivo:annual) and RaDRort annuel (Antananarivo:annual).

Table J-4: Health Personnel-a/

Year Physicians PharmacistsDentists Midwives Total Narrow Wide

1950 (417) ( 3,706) 1953 1955 336 (485) 1956 437 31 n.a. 403 2,255 1960 454 (643) 28 3 463 2,769 1963 426 30 6 505 2,720 1967 460 (659) 34 (75) 6 585 3,168 6,099 1970 631 46 7,025 1973 650 19 7,531 1975 561 25 11 4,981 7,897 1977 666 (851) 29 ( 95) 12 (38) 5,364 ( 6,065) 1979 725 (956) 31 (103) 13 (46) 9,732 (10,468) 1981 660 (926) 22 ( 25) 22 (39) 11,038 (11,825) 1982 719 (985) 19 ( 32) 23 (94) 12,359 (13,191) 1985 798 7,038 14,082

a. Most of the data refer only to health personnel in the public sector; the data in parenthesesinclude the private sector as well. The compositionof the "narrow" and "wide" totals are not clear and, as noted in the text, some of these sources present slightly inconsistentdata. The various sources are presented in same discussion. 63

Table J-5: Hospital Beds-a/

Hospital beds Public Total

1950 10,348 1953 10,282 1955 11,229 12,207 1956 11,229 1960 12,267 13,512 1964 14,440 15,710 1967 14,880 16,359 1970 16,974 19,145 1973 17,378 19,772 1977 17,534 19,906 1981 16,470 18,253

a. The sources of these data are specifiedin the text. 64

K, The GovernmentSector

1. An Overall View

Data on government expendituresand revenues from 1950 through 1960 are relatively extensive; the most importantdata are published in: Commissariat

g6n6ral au plan, Economie malgache:Evolution 1950 - 1960 (Antananarivo:June

1962), pp. 257 - 267.

Collecting consistent series on public expendituresand revenues since

1960 is a nightmare. The quantity of published data has decreased considerably,definitions are not supplied so that the inclusionof the series is clear, and series differ from source to source. Ministry of Finance officials assured me that certain data, e.g., a functional division of expenditures, were not calculated,although I have seen such series published and attributedto the Ministry.

Table K-1 presents the broadest aggregateson public finance which I have been able to locate. I do not believe that the social insurance expenditures are included, although this matter is not entirely clear. The data for 1971 through 1982 were supplied by the Direction g6n6rale du plan (DGB). The overlappingseries up to 1984 comes from: World Bank, The Democratic ReRublic of Madagascar:Country EconomicMemorandum, Report 5996-MAG (Washington,D.C.:

March 1986).

2. Revenue Data

The revenue data in Table K-2 cover only "ordinaryrevenues" and exclude, for instance, revenues from FNUP, the budgets of various various quasi- governmentalagencies (e.g., Port Authority, various parastatals, Malagasy

Radio and TV, etc.) From 1961 up to 1960, most direct taxes had been removed from the central governmentalbudget and transferred to the provinces. The

"indirecttaxes" include export and import taxes, excise taxes, and turnover 65 taxes; this series differs somewhat from other series. "Other revenue" appears to include certain small-scaledirect taxes and are a residual.

The data for 1950 up to the early 1970's come from: Minister of Finance and Planning, Basic Social and Economic Data on Madagascar. 1950 . 75,

Technical Studies, Document 001 (Antananarivo:May 1977). The data from the early 1970's up to 1979 come from materials supplied by the Direction g6neral du plan. The data for 1979 through 1984 come from World Bank, The

Democratic.... op. cit.

Table K-1: Overall Financial Balances of the Central Government-a (Billion FMG)

Receipts Expenditures Finance of deficit Total Regu- FNUP Total Ordi- Capital Other Total Exter- Inter- lar nary nally nally Part A 1971 43.8 43.8 0 46.6 33.7 12.7 0.2 2.8 3.1 -0.3 1972 42.7 42.7 0 49.8 37.3 15.9 -3.4 7.1 2.9 4.2 1973 46.3 46.3 0 55.9 40.8 13.9 1.2 9.6 4.0 5.6 1974 52.4 52.4 0 63.1 41.8 13.6 7.7 10.7 3.4 7.3 1975 53.7 53.7 0 61.8 44.6 13.1 4.1 8.1 5.4 2.7 1976 67.5 67.5 0 84.8 63.7 19.3 1.8 17.3 4.1 13.2 1977 96.3 84.5 11.8 101.1 79.8 15.4 5.9 4.8 4.5 0.3 1978 99.0 80.9 18.1 117.6 89.5 18.6 9.5 18.6 8.2 10.4 1979 110.0 90.7 19.3 185.0 97.7 56.4 30.9 75.0 35.3 39.7 1980 116.0 100.4 15.6 234.6 112.9 74.3 47.4 118.6 47.9 70.7 1981 119.5 104.3 15.2 213.3 112.0 62.2 39.1 93.8 56.6 37.2 1982 148.1 121.7 26.4 200.3 127.5 35.3 37.5 52.2 50.4 1.8

Part B 1978 99.0 87.7 76.9 1979 114.3 101.5 97.7 1980 123.3 113.6 67.6 1981 119.6 115.7 56.8 1982 151.6 131.6 71.7 1983 185.4 145.8 97.7 1984 243.0 172.7 97.6

a. FNUP is the Fonds national unique de p6requation.The data for this table represent the broadest definitions of expenditures and revenues which are presented in this appendix. However, "treasury operations" are removed from the expenditureside and placed as part of the financing of the deficit.

The data for Part A come from unpublished data supplied by the Direction generale du plan. The data for Part B come from: World Bank, 31& Democratic ReRublic of Madagascar: Country Economic Memorandum, Report 5996-MAG (Washington,D.C.: March 1986). 66

Table K-2: Revenues of the Central GovernmentA/ (Billion FMG)

General Taxes revenues Total Direct Indirect Other Total

1950 6.853 5.576 1.047 3.784 0.745 1951 8.837 6.913 0.324 5.113 1.476 1952 10.851 6.511 0.149 5.128 1.234 1953 11.213 7.188 0.066 5.543 1.579 1954 14.295 10.089 0.047 7.810 2.232 1955 14.320 10.511 0.074 7.360 3.077 1956 15.062 12.172 0.060 8.785 3.327 1957 16.589 13.935 0.060 9.768 4.107 1958 16.302 13.935 0.000 10.559 3.376 1959 18.123 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1960 17.835 17.835 1.850 11.518 4.467 1961 20.564 19.373 2.066 12.497 4.810 1962 21.903 21.734 2.689 14.964 4.081 1963 25.192 25.193 3.049 15.169 6.975 1964 26.451 26.451 3.860 17.840 4.751 1965 26.684 26.697 4.308 17.391 4.998 1966 27.975 27.975 5.358 17.933 4.684 1967 30.132 30.110 5.566 19.261 6.283 1968 33.503 33.516 5.848 22.494 5.174 1969 37.313 37.313 6.169 26.109 5.035 1970 39.822 39.822 6.813 26.644 6.365 1971 43.8 6.9 32.0 4.9 1972 42.7 6.4 30,1 6.2 1973 46.3 9.3 28.7 8.3 1974 52.4 8.2 33.6 10.6 1975 53.7 7.1 37.2 9.4 1976 67.5 7.4 37.9 22.2 1977 84.5 10.7 49.7 24.1 1978 80.9 15.1 55.9 9.9 1979 90.6 17.9 ---72.7---- 1980 102.6 22.2 ---80.4---- 1981 102.8 26.1 ---76.7---- 1982 117.3 25.6 ---91.7---- 1983 139.4 28.0 --111.4---- 1984 160.7 39.0 --121...7----

a. The exact sources of differences between total revenues and total taxes is not specified; the "other" category is a residual. Indirect taxes include export and import taxes, excise taxes, and turnover taxes. The series for both direct and indirect taxes vary somewhat in various sources. Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 67

3. Government Expenditures

The expenditures data in Table K-3a come from the same sources as the revenue data; however, the data from the DGP is used for the period up to 1983

Table K-3a: Expendituresof the Central Governmentby Economic Category-a/ (Billion FKG)

Opera- Invest- Total Economic classificationof operations tions ment Wage Goods Debt Other Discre- pay- and service pancy ments services 1950 5.158 0.895? 6.053 1951 -----6.669--- 6.669 1952 ----10.578--- 10.578 1953 7.453 2.989 10.442 1954 10.036 4.200 14.236 1955 10.551 3.072 13.623 1956 12.066 3.430 15.496 1957 13.834 2,680 16.514 1958 14.162 2.367 16.529 1959 16.584 1.450 18.034 1960 16.902 0.933 17.835 1961 19.338 1.226 20.564 1962 20.098 1.656 21.754 1963 20.346 4.786 25.132 1964 21.599 3.328 24.927 1965 23.661 3.619 27.280 1966 25.841 3.192 29.033 1967 26.779 4.505 31.284 1968 28.006 9.106 37.112 1969 30.434 10.919 41.353 1970 30.837 10.953 41.790 15.4 10.9 1.3 3.2 1971 33.838 12.763 46.601 16.9 11.3 2.1 3.6 1972 37.5 15.9 53.4 17.9 10.9 2.1 6.6 1973 40.4 13.9 54.3 24.0 9.1 0.8 6.5 1974 42.7 13.6 56.3 26.9 9.1 1.0 5.7 1975 48.6 13.1 61.7 29.2 7.9 2.4 9.1 1976 62.7 19.3 82.0 37.7 8.3 2.5 14.2 1977 60.8 15.4 76.2 35.6 7.9 1.8 15.6 1978 87.7 18.6 106.3 48.2 12.3 1.9 25.3 1979 101.8 56.4 158.2 50.4 14.4 4.0 35.1 -2.1 1980 111.7 74.3 186.0 59.5 18.6 6.7 29.6 -2.7 1981 111.4 62.2 173.6 68.0 11.3 11.0 25.4 -4.3 1982 126.4 35.3 161.7 80.7 9.8 14.9 24.9 -3.9 1983 136.0 n.a. n.a. 81.0 12.2 22.5 27.2 -6.9

a. The "discrepancy"is calculated since the data in the original source does not sum to the total. These expendituredata are somewhat less inclusive than those presented in K-1. Sources and methods for this table are discussed in the text. 68

as the World Bank data for the same years is quite different and does not appear comparable.The series exclude expendituresof the FNUP, certain types of rice support, various operations of the Treasury and other miscellaneous types of expenditureswhich, in the early 1980's began to assume a certain importance (e.g., in 1982 they amounted to 72.6 billion FMG).

The data in table K-3b differ considerablyfrom governmentalexpenditure data presented in other Malagasy sources because the degree of inclusion is different; and, for investment expendituresthey differ somewhat from other sources of data on governmentalinvestment expenditures such as: Ministere des travaux publics, Schema directeur du grand Antananarivo. Project de rapDort final de synth6se (Antananarivo:February 1985), p. 1-49. Certain types of defense expenditures also appear to be excluded or classified under other categories.

The data on the functionalbreakdown of budgetary expenditurescome from a variety of sources and may not be completely comparable. For instance, in the more aggregative data available from 1975 through 1982, it is unclear whether science and development is still continued in the "administrative" expenditures or has beon transferred to "education"; in the text I have considered it as part of administration.

The data from 1961 through 1971 come from: World Bank, Recent Economic

Position and Prospects of the Malagasy Republic, Report AE-lla (Washington,

D.C.: January 1971); and World Bank, The Economic Developmentof Madagascar:

Main Issues, Report No. 167a-MAG (Washington,D.C.: July 1974). The data in these two sources conflict in certainyears; I have, therefore, always chosen the more detailed source. No data on investment in the provincial budgets could be found. These data are somewhat larger that those presented in: INSRE,

Inventaire socio-6conomigue.1964 _- 1969, Volume II (Antananarivo:n.d.). 69

However, the latter data have military expendituresconsiderably larger than that reported in Table K-3a. The data for for 1975 through 1982, from World

Bank, Madagascar:Current Economic Situation and Prospects, Report No. 5154-

Table K-3b: Expendituresof the Central and Provincial Governmentby Function--a (MillionFMG)

Gen- De- Jus- Science,Edu- Health So- Agri- Other Other Total eral fense tice devel- ca- cial, cul- eco- adm. po- opment, tion com- ture nomic lice other munity Central government 1964 4837 886 3223 336 2175 1547 985 2661 5248 3285 25183 1965 5255 1023 3468 320 2448 1628 987 2947 5782 3921 27779 1966 5487 115,5 3634 283 2703 1693 814 3560 6736 3216 29281 1967 5518 1231 3744 348 2949 1762 809 4073 7186 4009 31629 1968 6052 1345 3987 332 3072 1953 1288 5717 7361 4540 37647 1969 P 6883 1518 4204 461 3997 2013 970 7555 11827 5932 45360 1970 P 6765 1473 4196 362 4907 2126 907 6098 10272 6098 43204

Central and Rrovincial governments

1961 ------7705------6675------10300---- 2730 27410 1962 ------8038------7100------10800---- 2450 28388 1963 ------8670 ------7825------11600---- 2670 30765 1964 5220 886 3226 336 4482 2806 1064 2729 6537 2992 30278 1965 5660 1023 3473 320 5187 3161 1059 3278 10708 3706 37575 1966 5909 1155 3638 283 5441 3183 889 3560 11715 3133 38906 1967 5992 1231 3748 348 5898 3306 872 4100 12717 3571 41783 1968 6528 1345 3991 332 6533 3573 1396 5731 14992 3821 48242 1969 P 7381 1518 4209 461 7714 3861 1065 7555 18048 5159 56971 1970 P 7279 1473 4200 362 8831 3992 982 6111 17043 5346 55619 1971 ------12390------12360------24600--- 7500 56850

1975 ------19700------12000 5900 900 7300 9500 4500 59800 1976 ------25700------15700 6700 3300 11100 14500 5000 82000 1977 ------24800------16800 6400 1800 12000 11700 7800 81300 1978 ------44500------26800 7200 2100 13500 17600 9100 120800 1979 --- 50500------31600 7400 2400 22400 19200 12100 145600 1980 ------57700------39000 11900 5400 20300 31600 8700 174700 1981 ------59200------34800 7100 2200 10000 10200 15800 139300 1982 P------58800------42500 12200 2700 12800 17700 20600 167200

a. The functionalbreakdown is for total current and capital expenditures and are somewhat less inclusive than the data presented in Table K-1. Up to 1975, however, the data exclude capital expenditures of the provincial governments (which were relatively small). P stands for budget plan. In the later years the expendituresfor administrationappear understatedbecause of an exclusion of certain defense expenditures. Sources and methods are described in the text of the appendix. 70

MAG (Washington,D.C.: October 1984).

4. Public Sector Employment

The data in Table K-4 represent a rough approximation. The data on employment in the state sector come from: DGP, "L'emploidans les soci6tds A participationsmajoritaires de l'6tat," (Antananarivo:mimeographed, n.d.), supplementedby data for 1977 from: DGP, L'emploi dans l'administrationA

Madagascar, Serie "Etudes techniques du plan," Document No. 10, Document annexe (Antananarivo:August 1977); and for various years from internal World

Bank documents. I have included all permanent employment of the societes mixte, all employeesof the state farms, the special rice productivitygroups, and rough estimates of the permanent employment of the "op6rations bilat6rales." These data do not include any economic activities of local government,which do not appear very great; the personnel in the local govern-

Table K-4: Employmentin the Public Sector in Madagascar in 1980-a/

Labor force State sector Total: 10 Modern and public and over sector enterprises

Agriculture,hunting, 3,882,000 63,000 32,697 forestry,fishing Mining and quarrying 3,200 3,200 750 Manufacturing 82,900 41,000 23,362 Electricity,gas, water 5,900 5,900 4,142 Construction,public works 35,000 28,000 3,200 Transport,communications, storage 51,000 20,000 14,170 Wholesale,retail trade 111,000 32,000 15,469 Finance, insurance,real estate 4,400 4,400 4,400 Community, social,business services 190,600 170,600 135,590 Industry not stated 51,000 - 542

Total 4,417,,000 368,100 234,322

Total excluding agriculture 535,000 305,100 220,750

a. Sources and methods for the estimationsin this table are presented in the text. 71 mental agencies may also be underestimated.Given the nature of the data, these estimates are very rough.

The data on labor force are derived from (census) data on the economically active in 1975 presented in: Direction generale du plan (DGP),

Premier plan. 1978 - 1980 (Antananarivo:December 1977), p. 18. For 1980 an updating of these estimates has been made by the DGP and are presented in

World Bank, op, cit., p. 33. I have, however, slightly modified these statistics with my own estimates of employment in the administrationof the government and from data from the Caisse nationale de pr6voyance sociale

(CNAPS). Further, agriculturewas estimated as a residual between my estimates of total economicallyactive and the total labor force.

The estimates on employment in the modern sector come from the CNAPS data, modified by including estimated employment in government administrationand several minor changes to achieve consistencywith total employment data. 72

L. Financialand Savings Data

1. Money

For the series presented in Table L-1 I use data on Ml and demand deposits

to derive MO. The alternativeestimate of M2 includes not only time deposits of the commercialbanks but time deposits in savings banks, the postal savings, and other savings institutions;since data are not available between 1977 and

1985 except for 1984, certain interpolationsand extrapolationof these series

Table L-1: The Money Supply-a/ (Billion FMG)

MO Ml M2 Alternative estimate End of year 1962 16.63 25.99 26.54 28.33 1963 16.60 26.83 27.59 29.72 1964 18.08 29.04 30.33 32.70 1965 19.11 30.83 32.41 34.97 1966 19.45 32.77 35.17 37.89 1967 21.84 36.53 37.98 40.91 1968 22.50 39.40 40.82 44.24 1969 27.01 45.54 48.38 52.07 1970 26.66 46.20 50.24 54.27 1971 26.62 46.95 53.20 57.40 1972 29.88 53.33 60.08 64.42 1973 31.01 57.32 62.90 67.48 1974 36.27 67.93 71.12 76.58 1975 38.81 69.35 72.68 78.27 1976 40.10 79.67 89.08 95.10 1977 48.17 99.98 108.70 117.70 1978 56.87 112.83 125.28 138.17 Change in definitions 1979 53.54 124.25 140.65 159.13 1980 70.23 151.48 169.81 191.08 1981 83.43 193.82 210.22 245.70 1982 90.73 208.01 228.92 280.38 1983 75.93 192.65 206.98 281.95 1984 90.22 239.92 256.23 366.64 1985 96.31 238.59 289.57 454.07

a. MO - currency outside banks. Ml MO + demand deposits of private sector in commercial banks; M2 - Ml + time deposits of private sector in commercial banks. For M2, the broader definition includes savings banks and postal savings. Sources and methods are discussed in the text. 73 had to be made.

There are a number of slightly different series on the money supply of

Madagascar, which appear to be based on slightly different definitions.I have drawn the data for this table from various issues of the I.M.F., International

Financial Statistics;unfortunately, the various series from 1962 through 1978 are not completely consistent with the series from 1979 through 1985. The data for postal savings come from: Minister of Finance and Planning, Basic Social and Economic Data on Madagascar. 1950 . 1975, Technical Studies, Document 001

(Antananarivo:May 1977), p. 138; for later years, informationwas taken from scattered sources. There are a number of different estimates of the money supply between 1950 and 1965, but they do not appear completely consistent with the IMF data and, for this reason, are not presented.

2. FinancialAssets

Comprehensivedata on the assets and liabilitiesof the entire financial system are not available and the data are taken from IMF sources which do not specify the financial institutionsincluded in the series. The data in Table

L-2 are defined in two ways: the "narrower estimations" include only the central bank and the deposit money banks; the "broader estimations" augment these data with series from "other financial institutions,"(which apparently include savings banks but may not include insurancecompanies).

All of the series but postal savings come from IMF International

Financial Statistics,various issues. For the period from 1977 to 1984 data were not available for some series and were estimatedby interpolation.

3. Interest Rates

Interest rate data for Madagascar are scarce and the only available and continuous time series, which is presented in Table L-3a, is the central bank rediscount rate. The data on the rate structure in Table L-3b are about all that are readily available. 74

Table L-2: Assets of the FinancialSystem (BillionFMG)

Narrower estimates Broader estimates Net for- Net claims Net for Net claims eign as- On gov- On pri- Total eign as- On gov- On pri- Total sets ernment vate sets ernment vate sector sector End of year 1962 14.66 -9.83 23.89 14.06 13.90 -8.95 25.63 16.68 1963 12.90 -10.08 28.06 17.98 11.81 -9.03 29.59 20.56 1964 13.20 -11.15 31.37 20.22 11.73 -9.98 32.46 22.48 1965 14.87 -8.36 29.85 21.49 12.49 -7.10 31.56 24.46 1966 15.44 -9.31 33.29 23.98 12.73 -7.97 35.49 27.52 1967 14.48 -9.33 38.93 29.60 12.52 -7.90 41.49 33.59 1968 11.84 -6.53 41.61 35.08 9.31 -4.85 44.97 40.12 1969 10.00 -3.93 45.15 41.22 6.97 -2.11 49.38 47.27 1970 16.61 -7.94 52.82 44.88 12.15 -6.01 57.59 51.58 1971 16.04 -9.06 59.66 50.60 11.28 -7.00 65.06 58.06 1972 19.33 -2.67 59.46 56.79 14.65 -0.58 65.16 64.58 1973 21.83 -3.52 59.78 56.26 17.41 -1.31 65.21 63.90 1974 19.02 5.98 70.01 75.99 15.08 8.32 76.27 84.59 1975 12.25 12.58 72.48 85.06 8.82 15.05 78.20 93.25 1976 14.82 20.23 76.20 96.43 12.05 22.94 82.12 105.06 1977 15.74 26.07 91.32 117.39 13.43 29.35 94.64 123.99 1978 11.51 49.09 96.14 145.23 7.46 52.80 101.62 154.42

Change in definitions 1979 -57.80 107.02 130.09 237.11 -64.89 111.27 139.14 250.41 1980 -121.17 176.94 158.64 335.58 -133.60 183.95 173.58 357.53 1981 -171.74 240.58 174.22 414.80 -193.52 252.16 198.89 451.05 1982 -214.02 281.12 207.36 488.48 -252.19 300.22 248.09 548.31 1983 -442.48 334.93 251.64 586.57 -509.38 366.47 318.89 685.36 1984 -616.31 388.27 305.04 693.31 -733.54 440.33 416.07 856.40 1985 -708.86 416.74 395.07 811.81 -914.29 502.67 578.38 1081.05

a. The "narrower estimates" includes only the central bank and the deposit money banks; the "broaderestimates" include "other financial institutions."The sources and methods are discussed in the text. 75

Table L-3a: The Discount Rate-a/

Nominal rate Real rate End of year 1969 5.50% 2.50% 1970 5.50 -6.36 1971 5.50 1.20 1972 5.50 1.28 1973 5.50 -4.71 1974 5.50 -14.28 1975 5.50 0.48 1976 5.50 -4.32 1977 5.50 -3.62 1978 5.50 -1.09 1979 5.50 -5.82 1980 5.50 -9.25

Average 5.50 -3.67

a. Data on the nominal discount rate come from I.M.F., International Financial Statistics, various issues. The real rates are the nominal rates minus the increase in the GDP deflator (Table G-1).

Table L-3b: The Structure of Interest Rates-a/

November 1969 October 1974 February 1981

Loan rates: Rediscount rate 5.50% 5.50% 8.00% Medium term 3.75 5.00 8.00 Long term n.a. 6.00 8.00

Bank deposit rates: Demand deposits 0.75 0.75 1.00 Three month term 4.75 4.75 5.50 1 year term 5.15 5.65 6.75

Treasury bonds: 1 year bonds 3.50 n.a. 5.75 5 year bonds 4.75 n.a. 9.25

a. The data come from: World Bank, Madagascar: Economic Memorandum, Report 2289-MAG (Washington, D.C.: November 1981), p. 82. 76

4. Investmentand Savings

The estimates of gross national savings in Table L-4 are quite rough because of the uncertain nature of the balance of payments data. The investmentdata come from Table E-lb; the data on foreign credit and transfers comes from balance of payments data in Table F-4b.

Table L-4: Investmentand Savings--a/ (BillionFMG)

Total gross Net foreign Net transfers Gross domestic investment capital flow, from abroad savings short and long

1962 11.7 1.2 19.0 -8.5 1963 16.1 1.8 19.4 -5.1 1964 17.8 3.1 19.5 -4.8 1965 17.0 3.6 15.4 -2.0 1966 24.4 4.5 16.4 3.5 1967 28.1 -0.6 18.4 10.3 1968 33.8 0.6 18.3 14.9 1969 37.8 3.8 16.3 17.7 1970 38.9 5.5 8.8 24.6 1971 47.4 13.1 9.2 25.1 1972 37.9 9.4 9.2 19.3 1973 42.6 9.2 7.4 26.0 1974 50.8 -1.1 9.7 42.2 1975 50.6 6.1 12.8 31.7 1976 53.9 5.0 12.5 36.4 1977 60.2 7.5 12.8 39.9 1978 70.4 16.9 13.7 39.8 1979 150.8 73.1 14.9 62.8 1980 162.4 95.6 9.8 57.0 1981 142.5 82.8 18.1 41.6 1982 133.0 75.3 24.9 32.8 1983 160.7 14.6 25.7 120.4 1984 187.0 18.5 41.1 127.4

a. Gross national savings is simple total investment minus net foreign capital and net transfers from abroad. Given the uncertain nature of the balance of payments data, especially in the early years, the estimates for gross national savings are quite rough. The sources are specifiedin the text. DISTRIBUTORS OF WORLD BANK PUBLICATIONS

ARGENTINA GERMANY, FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF KOREA. REPUBLIC OF SPAIN Cuos Husch. SRL UNO-Verlap Pan Korea Book Corporation Mundi-Prenst Libros, S.A. Galna Guemes Poppeldorfer Alice 55 P. 0. Box 101, Kwatngwhamun Castello 37 Flbnda 165. 4th Floor-Cf.c 43S3465 D-5300 Bonn I Seoul 2800I Ms"did 1333Bueno Ais GREECE KUWAIT SRI LANKA AND THE MALDIVES AUSTRALIA. PAPUA NEW GUINEA. FUI, KEME MEMRB Lake HouseBookshop SOLOMON ISLANDS, VANUATU, AND 24. IppodamnouStreet P.O. Box 5465 P.O. Box 244 WESTERN SAMOA Athens-1 1635 M YSI 100. Sir Chinamplam A. G"diner Mawadi Oo-Ltne GUATEMALA University of Malay%Cooperative Bookshop, Colombo 2 Ove s DocumeneDelivety LibrenasPiedra Santa Limited SWEDEN Box NSWGPO Centbo Cultural PiedraSanta P. 0. Box 1127.Jalan PantaiBara For single tideJ: Sydnry. NSW2001 II calle 6-50 zona I Kuala Lumpur ABCE Fritzes Kungi. Hovbokhtandel AUSTRtA Guaemals City MEXICO Regenogagatan12, Box 16356 Gerold and Co. HONG KONG. MACAU INfOTEC S10327 Stocklm A-10ll Wien Asta 2000 Ltd. Apattdo Postl 22-860 ForSubscription orders: Gabe 31 6 Fl. 146Prince EdwardRoad, W, Col. PEJAPnbr Wennergen-Willians AB BAHRAIN Kowloon 14060Tlaipan, Mexico D.F. Box 30004 MEMRB InformationServices Hong Kong MOROCCO 5-104 25 Stockholm P.O. Box 2750 HUNGARY Soete d'EtudesMarketing Marocaine SWiTneRLAND ManamnaTown 317 Kuitura 2 Rue Moliere. Bd. d'Anfa ubrairne Payot BANGLADESH PO Box 139 Casablanca 6, ne Grenuw Micro liduatries Developmnt Assistance 1389Budapest 62 NETHERLANDS Casepostal 381 Socity (MIDAS) INDIA InOr-Publikatiesbv. CH 1211Geneva II GPO. Box8C0Allied Publihers Private Ltd. P.O. Box 14 TANZANIA 751 Mount Road 7240 BA Lochem Oxford Univesity Pres BELGIUM Madras - 600 002 NEW ZEALAND P.O. Box 5299 Publicationsdes Nations Unies Hils Library sod lnfonutioo Service Dar es Salsam Av. du Roi 202 15 JN. HerediaMrg Private Bag THiLAND 1060 Bmssels Ballard Estateuka New Market Depusmeo Stor BRAZIL Bombay -400031 Aucklad 306 Silom Road PublicacoesTecnicas IsntemacionaisLda. 13114Asaf Ali Road NIGERIA Bangkok Rua Peixoto Gomtide. 209 New Delhi - 110 002 University PressLiwuted TRINIDAD & TOBAGO, ANTIGUA, 01409 Sao Paulo, SP Three Crowns Building Jericho BARBUDA, BARBADOS, DOMtNICA, CANADA 17 Chitaranjan Avenue Private Mail Bag 5095 GRENADA, GUYANA, JAMAICA, Le Diffttsett Calcutt - 700 072 Ibdan MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS AND NEVIS, C.P. 85. 1501Amper Street NORWAY ST. LUCK ST V CENT & Bouchterile, Quebec JayadevaHostel Building N S STmLUIA ST. I J4B 5E6 5tt. Main Road GandhirLagar ~ TasausKarl Johan A.S. GRENADINE MB 5E6 CHINA~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Bnglre-60~OsloSIt MBangdore- 560 nD9 P.O. I Box 1177Sentruam 55Syas Easgan i Main Studies RoadUnit China Finanial & EconomicPublishing House. 3-5-1129K chigadaCrossRoadC S. Da Fo Si Dong Jie Hyderabad- 500027 MEMRB InformationServices Beijing P.O. Box 1613,Seeb Airport TURKEY COLOMBIA Prtuta Flats, 2nd Floor Muscat HasetKitapevi, A.S. EnIace Lda. Near ThakoreBaug, Navrmngpura DAe uk Ckakdesi Caza6 No. 51-21 Ahmtnedabad- 380009 PAfUSTAN Sape BogotraDEN.512 Muss Book Agency Topkapi Apatado Aereo4430 PatialsHouse 65. Shahrah-uid-e-Azaim Istanb_I Cab. Valle 16-A Ashok Marg P.O. Box No. 729 Lucknow - 226 001 LAlore 3 UGANDA COSTA RICA PEUUganda Booksso Ukereia Trejo INDONESIA PERU P.O.Box 7145 Calt 11-13 Pt. Indir Limited Editorial Desarrollo SA lSr4a Av. FeinandezGuell Ji. SamnRatulangi 37 ApUtdo 3824N ARAB MIATES San Jose Jakarta Pusat Uma MEMRB Gulf CoE P.O. Box 181 PHILIPPINES P.O. Box 6097 COTE D lVOUtE IEADNatoulW Book Store Sharj;th Centred'Edition et de Diffusion Africaines IRTELAND N io o Soenue (CEDA) TDC Publishers 701 Rizal Avenue UIE GO 04 B.P. 541 12 North FrederickStreet Metro Manila UNMIED KNGiOM Abidjan 04 Plateau Dublit I POLAND P. Boy 3 CYPRUS ISRAEL ORPAN Alton, Hampshire GU34 2PG MEMRB InformationServices The JerusalemPost PalBe Kulat i Nauki Englxnd P.O. Box 2098 The JerusaemPost Building I WarawaURUGUAY Nicosta P.O. Box 81 PORTUGAL InuGUAYNe l del Ubro DENMARIC Ronema Jerusatem91000 LAvna Portugal San Jose 1116 Montevideo SamfuDdsi-tktatur.DENAnsud tRKtsffIALY RiuaDo Canino70-74 RosenoerasAile II UcosaCommissionaria Sansoni SPA 1200 Lisbon Via LAmarnora45 ~~~~~~~~VENEZUELA DK-1970 Frederiksberg C. Vi aamr ~SAUDI ARABIA, QATAR Libreta del Este Aptdo. 60.337 DOMINfCANDOMINICAN REPUBUCREPtUBLIC 50121Casella Florence Postale 552 PaiP. 0.O BookBox 3196Stor Caraca 1060-A Editota Tller,C. por A. JAPAN Riyadh 114?1 Restaurcion YUGOSLAVIA Apdo. postal 2190 Eastem Book Service SINGAPORE. TAIWAN, BURMA, BRUNEI Jugoslovensak Knjiga SantoDommgo 37-3. Hongo 3-Chome, Bunkyo-ku 113 Information Publications YU-1 1000 BelgadeTng Republike EGIW,EPUBLJC ARAB OFTokyo Private,Ltd.ZIB Wl EGYPT, ARAB REPJUBLIC OF ORDAN 02-06 Ist Fl.. Pei-Fu Industrial ZDfBABWE

Al Gala&Saeet JordanCenter for Marketing Researh Bldg.. 24 New Induta Road Textbook Sals Pvt. Ltd. Cairo ~~~~~~P.O.Box 3143 Singapore Box 3799 JablAnutnAan SOUTH AFRICA Ak teenunenKitikauppa IKENYA For single tiles P.O. Box 128 Africa Book Service(E.A.) Ltd. Oxford University PressSouthem Aftsca SF-00101 P. 0. Box45245 P.O. Box 1141 Helsinki 10 Nairobi CapeTown 80C0 FRANCE For subscripttionorders World Bank Publications Intmrtiona Subsctiption Service 66. avenued'ln&a P.O. Box 41095 75116 Patis Craighall Johannesburg2024

RECENT WORLD BANK DISCUSSION PAPERS (continued)

No. 19. The Public Revenue and Economic Policy in African Countries: An Overview of Issues and Policy Options. Dennis Anderson

No. 22. Demographic Trends in China from 1950 to 1982. Kenneth Hill

No. 23. Food Import Dependence in Somalia: Magnitude, Causes, and Policy Options. Y. Rossein Farzin

No. 24. The Relationship of External Debt and Growth: Sudan's Experience, 1975-1984. Y. Hossein Farzin

No. 25. The Poor and the Poorest: Some Interim Findings. Michael Lipton

No. 26. Road Transport Taxation in Developing Countries: The Design of User Charges and Taxes for Tunisia. David Newbery, Gordon Hughes, William D.O. Paterson, and Esra Bennathan

No. 27. Trade and Industrial Policies in the Developing Countries of East Asia. Amarendra Bhattacharya and Johannes F. Linn

No. 28. Agricultural Trade Protectionism in Japan: A Survey. Delbert A. Fitchett

No. 29. A Multisector Framework for Analysis of Stabilization and Structural Adjustment Policies: The Case of Morocco. Abel M. Mateus and others

No. 30. Improving the Quality of Textbooks in China. Barbara W. Searle and Michael Mertaugh with Anthony Read and Philip Cohen

No. 31. Small Farmers in South Asia: Their Characteristics, Productivity, and Efficiency. Inderjit Singh

No. 32. Tenancy in South Asia. Inderjit Singh

No. 33. Land and Labor in South Asia. Inderjit Singh

No. 34. The World Bank's Lending for Adjustment: An Interim Report. Peter Nicholas

No. 35. Global Trends in Real Exchange Rates. Adrian Wood

No. 36. Income Distribution and Economic Development in Malawi: Some Historical Statistics. Frederic L. Pryor

No. 37. Income Distribution and Economic Development in Madagascar: Some Historical Statistics. Frederic L. Pryor The World Bank

Headquarters European Office Tokyo Office 1818 H Street, N.W. 66, avenue d'1ena Kokusai Building Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. 75116 Paris, France 1-1 Marunouchi 3-chome Telephone: (202) 477-1234 Telephone: (1) 47.23.54.21 Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100,Japan Telex: WUI 64145 WORLDBANK Telex: 842-620628 Telephone: (03) 214-5001 RCA 248423 WORLDBK Telex: 781-26838 Cable Address: INTBAFRAD WASHINGTONDC

ISSN 0259-210X / ISBN 0-8213-1086-0 / DP0037