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Current and Future Worldwide Threats to the National Security of the United States S. HRG. 112–741 CURRENT AND FUTURE WORLDWIDE THREATS TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION FEBRUARY 16, 2012 Printed for the use of the Committee on Armed Services ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.fdsys.gov/ U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 79–855 PDF WASHINGTON : 2013 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate Aug 31 2005 11:32 Mar 15, 2013 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 Y:\BORAWSKI\DOCS\79855.TXT JUNE PsN: JUNEB COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES CARL LEVIN, Michigan, Chairman JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN, Connecticut JOHN MCCAIN, Arizona JACK REED, Rhode Island JAMES M. INHOFE, Oklahoma DANIEL K. AKAKA, Hawaii JEFF SESSIONS, Alabama E. BENJAMIN NELSON, Nebraska SAXBY CHAMBLISS, Georgia JIM WEBB, Virginia ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi CLAIRE MCCASKILL, Missouri SCOTT P. BROWN, Massachusetts MARK UDALL, Colorado ROB PORTMAN, Ohio KAY R. HAGAN, North Carolina KELLY AYOTTE, New Hampshire MARK BEGICH, Alaska SUSAN M. COLLINS, Maine JOE MANCHIN III, West Virginia LINDSEY GRAHAM, South Carolina JEANNE SHAHEEN, New Hampshire JOHN CORNYN, Texas KIRSTEN E. GILLIBRAND, New York DAVID VITTER, Louisiana RICHARD BLUMENTHAL, Connecticut RICHARD D. DEBOBES, Staff Director ANN E. SAUER, Minority Staff Director (II) VerDate Aug 31 2005 11:32 Mar 15, 2013 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 Y:\BORAWSKI\DOCS\79855.TXT JUNE PsN: JUNEB C O N T E N T S CHRONOLOGICAL LIST OF WITNESSES CURRENT AND FUTURE WORLDWIDE THREATS TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES FEBRUARY 16, 2012 Page Clapper, Hon. James R., Jr., Director of National Intelligence ........................... 10 Burgess, LTG Ronald L., Jr., USA, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency ........ 33 (III) VerDate Aug 31 2005 11:32 Mar 15, 2013 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 Y:\BORAWSKI\DOCS\79855.TXT JUNE PsN: JUNEB VerDate Aug 31 2005 11:32 Mar 15, 2013 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 Y:\BORAWSKI\DOCS\79855.TXT JUNE PsN: JUNEB CURRENT AND FUTURE WORLDWIDE THREATS TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2012 U.S. SENATE, COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:35 a.m. in room SD– G50, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Senator Carl Levin (chair- man) presiding. Committee members present: Senators Levin, Lieberman, Webb, Udall, Hagan, Manchin, Shaheen, Blumenthal, McCain, Inhofe, Wicker, Brown, Portman, Ayotte, Graham, and Cornyn. Committee staff members present: Richard D. DeBobes, staff di- rector; and Leah C. Brewer, nominations and hearings clerk. Majority staff members present: Jonathan S. Epstein, counsel; Richard W. Fieldhouse, professional staff member; Jessica L. King- ston, research assistant; Michael J. Kuiken, professional staff mem- ber; Gerald J. Leeling, counsel; Thomas K. McConnell, professional staff member; William G.P. Monahan, Counsel; Michael J. Noblet, professional staff member; Roy F. Phillips, professional staff mem- ber; Russell L. Shaffer, counsel; and William K. Sutey, professional staff member. Minority staff members present: Adam J. Barker, professional staff member; Christian D. Brose, professional staff member; Pablo E. Carrillo, minority general counsel; John W. Heath, Jr., minority investigative counsel; Paul C. Hutton IV, professional staff mem- ber; Daniel A. Lerner, professional staff member; Lucian L. Nie- meyer, professional staff member; Michael J. Sistak, research as- sistant; and Richard F. Walsh, minority counsel. Staff assistants present: Kathleen A. Kulenkampff, Hannah I. Lloyd, and Bradley S. Watson. Committee members’ assistants present: Bryon Manna, assistant to Senator Lieberman; Nick Ikeda, assistant to Senator Akaka; Ann Premer, assistant to Senator Nelson; Gordon Peterson, assist- ant to Senator Webb; Casey Howard, assistant to Senator Udall; Mara Boggs, assistant to Senator Manchin; Chad Kreikemeier, as- sistant to Senator Shaheen; Ethan Saxon, assistant to Senator Blumenthal; Anthony Lazarski, assistant to Senator Inhofe; Lenwood Landrum, assistant to Senator Sessions; Joseph Lai, as- sistant to Senator Wicker; Charles Prosch, assistant to Senator Brown; Brad Bowman, assistant to Senator Ayotte; Sergio Sarkany, (1) VerDate Aug 31 2005 11:32 Mar 15, 2013 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 Y:\BORAWSKI\DOCS\79855.TXT JUNE PsN: JUNEB 2 assistant to Senator Graham; and Dave Hanke, assistant to Sen- ator Cornyn. OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR CARL LEVIN, CHAIRMAN Chairman LEVIN. Good morning, everybody. Let me start by wel- coming our witnesses for today’s hearing on current and longer- term threats and challenges around the world. We are glad to have the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), James R. Clapper, Jr., and the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Lieuten- ant General Ronald L. Burgess, Jr., USA, as our witnesses. We thank you both for your long and continued service to our Nation on behalf of our troops to whom we all owe so much. This committee has a special responsibility to the men and women of our Armed Forces to be vigilant about intelligence pro- grams because the safety of our troops, decisions on whether or not to use military force, and the planning for military operations de- pend so heavily on intelligence. The security situation in Afghanistan remains one of our highest priority threats for our Intelligence Community. In the last year, there are clear signs of progress. Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are in the lead in providing security in Kabul, including during the gathering of over 2,000 Afghan leaders for their recent loya jirga last November. The Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) are in charge of security in former Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan. In addition, Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defense planners have developed a plan for the ministries’ combined team operations for 2012 and 2013. The ANA is widely respected, and even the ANP, traditionally lag- ging far behind in that virtue, are gaining increasing respect among the Afghan people. Nevertheless, security remains fragile. A key to progress on security in Afghanistan is the process of transitioning the lead for securing the Afghan people from coalition forces to the Afghan security forces. The transition process is un- derway and continues apace, with the Afghan army and police as- suming the security lead in more and more areas throughout the country. We heard on Tuesday from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dempsey, that the transition process is on track to meet the goal of having the ANSF take the lead through- out Afghanistan by 2014. Successful transition is going to depend on a number of factors, including the growth in the capabilities of the ANA and ANP and their readiness to take the security lead; the nature of the insur- gency; and progress on reconciliation talks. We would be interested in hearing our witnesses’ assessment of the current security situa- tion in Afghanistan and their views on the progress both in terms of providing security and of transition and the possibilities for rec- onciliation with the Taliban. I am concerned by recent news reports that the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) reflects a difference of views between the Intelligence Community and our military commanders over the security situation in Afghanistan. According to these news reports, the NIE contains a set of additional comments endorsed by coali- tion commander General Allen, Ambassador Crocker, U.S. Central Command Commander General Mattis, and U.S. European Com- VerDate Aug 31 2005 11:32 Mar 15, 2013 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00006 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 Y:\BORAWSKI\DOCS\79855.TXT JUNE PsN: JUNEB 3 mand Commander Admiral Stavridis, disagreeing with the NIE’s assessment relative to the sustainability of security gains particu- larly in the south. I hope our witnesses will address this alleged difference of views in the recent NIE. Security in Afghanistan is going to remain in jeopardy so long as there continues to be sanctuary in Pakistan for insurgents con- ducting cross-border attacks against U.S., coalition, and Afghan forces, and against the Afghan people. Pakistan’s refusal to go after the safe havens of the Haqqani network in North Waziristan and of the Afghan Taliban Shura in Quetta belies Pakistan’s assertions that it is committed to peace and security in the region. Pakistan’s support for the Haqqani network, which former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen called a ‘‘veritable arm’’ of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan, Pakistan’s intelligence agency, is a major cause for U.S.-Pakistan relations reaching a low point, where they are going to remain until the Pakistan military ends its ties to these militant extremists carrying out cross-border attacks. We need to understand the Intelligence Community’s assessment of Pakistan’s strategy with respect to these insurgent groups and the reconciliation process and as to Pakistan’s power to determine outcomes. The U.S. campaign against the global jihadist movement, as Di- rector Clapper’s opening statement calls it, had a number of signifi- cant successes in the last year, notably operations against Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki. These successes struck major blows to al Qaeda’s senior leadership and to one of its most active affiliates. As a result of these operations and sustained pressure in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and North Africa, al Qaeda and its af- filiates are showing strain. We would be interested in the Intel- ligence Community’s assessment of last week’s announcement of a merger between al Qaeda and al Shabaab and whether it signals an increased threat to the United States and our interests in So- malia.
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