Is There Space for Political Opportunism?
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Prqh|0Edvhg yv1 H{fkdqjh0Udwh0Edvhg Vwdelol}dwlrq= Lv wkhuh Vsdfh iru Srolwlfdo RssruwxqlvpBW Dul Dlvhq XFOD Rfwrehu 5335 Devwudfw Lq uhvsrqvh wr wkh kljk dqg fkurqlf lq dwlrq wkdw kdv sodjxhg wkh ghyhorslqj zruog vlqfh wkh 4<;3*v/ frxqwulhv dgrswhg glhuhqw vwdelol}dwlrq srolflhv1 Krzhyhu/ wr zkdw h{whqw wkhvh vwdelol}dwlrq surjudpv zhuh ghvljqhg iru srolwlfdo udwkhu wkdq hfrqrplf prwlydwlrqv lv qrw fohdu1 Qru lv lw nqrzq zkhwkhu dqg wr zkdw ghjuhh srolf|0pdnhuv pd| wdnh dgydqwdjh ri wkh frqvxpswlrq f|fohv ghulyhg iurp wkh glhuhqw vwdelol}dwlrq vwudwhjlhv lq rughu wr ixuwkhu wkhlu srolwlfdo fduhhu1 Vlqfh lq fkurqlf lq dwlrq frxqwulhv/ h{fkdqjh0udwh0edvhg vwdelol}dwlrqv fuhdwh dq lqlwldo frqvxpswlrq errp iroorzhg e| d frqwudfwlrq zkhuhdv prqh|0edvhg vwdelol}dwlrqv jhqhudwh d frqvxpswlrq exvw iroorzhg e| d uhfryhu|/ srolf|0pdnhuv pd| wdnh lqwr dffrxqw wkh wlplqj ri hohfwlrqv zkhq gh0 whuplqlqj wkh qrplqdo dqfkru iru vwdelol}dwlrq1 Wklv sdshu qgv vwurqj hylghqfh wkdw wkh fkrlfh ri qrplqdo dqfkru wr vwdelol}h lq dwlrq ghshqgv rq wkh hohfwlrq f|foh1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ h{fkdqjh0udwh0edvhg vwdelol}dwlrqv duh rq dyhudjh odxqfkhg ehiruh hohfwlrqv zkloh prqh|0edvhg vwdelol}dwlrqv duh vhw diwhu wkhp/ lpso|lqj wkh h{lvwhqfh ri srolw0 lfdo rssruwxqlvp lq wkh fkrlfh ri vwdelol}dwlrq dqfkru1 Wkh hpslulfdo hvwlpdwhv duh rewdlqhg wkurxjk wkh xvh ri idluo| vlpsoh hfrqrphwulf prghov edvhg rq d vdpsoh ri 67 ixoo|0 hgjhg vwdelol}dwlrq hslvrghv lq 44 frxqwulhv zlwk kljk dqg fkurqlf lq dwlrq1 Wkh uhvxowv duh urexvw wr glhuhqw prgho vshflfdwlrqv1 Wklv sdshu frqwulexwhv wr xqghu0 vwdqglqj ri lqwhudfwlrq ehwzhhq srolwlfdo dqg hfrqrplf skhqrphqd surylglqj d xvhixo phwkrgrorj| wr txdqwli| wklv uhodwlrqvkls1 MHO Fodvvlfdwlrq= F58> F;5> H98> I74> S49 Nh|zrugv= Lq dwlrq Vwdelol}dwlrq> Qrplqdo Dqfkruv> Srolwlfdo Rssruwxqlvp> Hohf0 wlrqv> L dp lqghewhg wr Fduorv Yhjk iru klv frqvwuxfwlyh dgylfh lq wkh ghyhorsphqw ri wklv sdshu1 Mhdq0Odxuhqw Urvhqwkdo/ Oxlvd Odpehuwlql/ Ddurq Wruqhoo/ Pdulqd Edvvl/ Pdufrv Udqjho/ Rvfdu Plwqln dqg sduwlflsdqwv lq ydulrxv vhplqduv dw XFOD surylghg pdq| khosixo frpphqwv dqg vxjjhvwlrqv1 Doo huurv duh plqh1 Dgguhvv fruuhvsrqghqfh wr ddlvhqCxfod1hgx1 Frqwdfw whohskrqhv= +643, 7:<0<6;4 dqg +643, 68408766 Prqh|0Edvhg yv1 H{fkdqjh0Udwh0Edvhg Vwdelol}dwlrq= Lv wkhuh Vsdfh iru Srolwlfdo RssruwxqlvpB 4 Lqwurgxfwlrq Lw lv fohdu wkdw srolwlfv lq xhqfh hfrqrplf srolf|1 Ghwhuplqlqj wkh h{whqw wr zklfk wklv kdsshqv lv txlwh d fkdoohqjh/sduwlfxoduo| iru uhvhdufkhuv vwxg|lqj ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv1 Lw lv d fkdoohqjh zruwk phhwlqj/krzhyhu/ehfdxvh idlolqj wr ghvljq wkh dssursuldwh srolf| pd| kdyh d pdmru qhjdwlyh lpsdfw rq wkh zhoiduh ri wkhvh vrflhwlhv1 Dq h{dpsoh ri d srolf| zlwk d kljk srolwlfdo glphqvlrq dqg vwurqj zhoiduh lpsdfw lv wkh fkrlfh ri qrplqdo dqfkru wr vwdelol}h lq dwlrq1 Lq uhvsrqvh wr kljk dqg fkurqlf lq dwlrq/ pdq| frxqwulhv kdyh dgrswhg vwdelol}dwlrq srolflhv1 Wkhvh srolflhv glhuhg lq wkhlu ghvljq/ exw wr zkdw h{whqw wkhvh glhuhqfhv durvh iurp srolwlfdo udwkhu wkdq hfrqrplf prwlydwlrqv lv qrw fohdu1 Qru lv lw nqrzq zkhwkhu dqg wr zkdw h{whqw srolf|0pdnhuv pd| wdnh dgydqwdjh ri wkh frqvxpswlrq f|fohv ghulyhg iurp wkh glhuhqw vwdelol}dwlrq vwudwhjlhv lq rughu wr ixuwkhu wkhlu srolwlfdo fduhhu14 Wkhuh duh edvlfdoo| wzr srvvleoh dqfkruv dydlodeoh iru srolf|0pdnhuv wr vwdelol}h lq d0 wlrq= wkh h{fkdqjh udwh dqg d prqhwdu| djjuhjdwh1 Wkhvh dowhuqdwlyhv ohdg wr wzr glhuhqw frqvxpswlrq sdwkv hyhq li wr wkh vdph hqg uhvxow lq whupv ri zhoiduh1 H{fkdqjh0udwh0edvhg vwdelol}dwlrq surjudpv jhqhudwh dq lqlwldo frqvxpswlrq errp dqg d odwhu uhfhvvlrq lq wkh hfrqrp| zkhuhdv prqh|0edvhg vwdelol}dwlrqv jhqhudwh dq hduo| frqvxpswlrq exvw iroorzhg e| d uhfryhu|15 D ehqhyrohqw glfwdwru pljkw eh lqglhuhqw ehwzhhq erwk vwudwhjlhv exw hohfwhg r!fldov pxvw eh vhqvlwlyh wr uhdfwlrq ri yrwhuv1 Li yrwhuv duh qrw shuihfwo| iruzdug orrnlqj/ wkhq wkh wlplqj ri hohfwlrqv pljkw pdwwhu dqg nqrzohgjh ri wkhvh frqvxpswlrq sdwwhuqv do0 orz srolwlfldqv wr xvh erwk qrplqdo dqfkruv rssruwxqlvwlfdoo|1 Lq sduwlfxodu/dq rssruwxqlvwlf 4 L xvh wkh whupv srolf|0pdnhuv dqg srolwlfldqv lqwhufkdqjhdeo| wkurxjkrxw wkh sdshu iru vlpsolflw|1 Hyhq wkrxjk srolf|0pdnhuv pd| qrw eh srolwlfldqv/ lw lv dvvxphg wkdw wkh| kdyh wkh vdph dvsludwlrqv uhjduglqj ylfwru| lq wkh qh{w hohfwlrqv djdlqvw wkh rssrvlwlrq1 5 Hyhq wkrxjk wkhuh lv vrph ghedwh lq wkh olwhudwxuh rq wkh hpslulfdo uhjxodulwlhv ri vwdelol}dwlrq vwudwhjlhv lq kljk dqg fkurqlf lq dwlrq frxqwulhv/ wkhuh lv hqrxjk frqylqflqj hylghqfh wkdw vxssruwv wkh h{lvwhqfh ri frqvxpswlrq f|fohv diwhu vwdelol}dwlrq1 Wkh uhvxowv ri wklv sdshu zloo vkhg vrph oljkw rq wklv frqwuryhuv| surylglqj d udwlrqdo lq idyru ri frqvxpswlrq errp0exvw f|fohv1 Wklv ghedwh dqg wkh uhodwhg olwhudwxuh zloo eh ghvfulehg lq pruh ghwdlo ehorz1 4 srolwlfldq pljkw xvh h{fkdqjh0udwh0edvhg vwdelol}dwlrqv sulru wr hohfwlrqv zkhuhdv prqhwdu| dqfkruv pljkw eh hpsor|hg diwhu wkhp16 Wklv sdshu whvwv wkh h{lvwhqfh ri srolwlfdo rssruwxqlvp lq wkh fkrlfh ri qrplqdo dqfkru wr vwdelol}h lq dwlrq/wkhuhe| frqwulexwlqj wr wkh h{lvwlqj srolwlfdo hfrqrp| olwhudwxuh dqg vkhgglqj vrph oljkw rq wkh ghflvlrq0pdnlqj surfhvv ehklqg d frxqwu|*v fkrlfh ri d sduwlfxodu vwdelol}dwlrq vwudwhj|1 Wkh uhvxowv ghulyhg iurp idluo| vlpsoh hfrqrphwulf prghov xvlqj gdwd rq 67 ixoo|0 hgjhg vwdelol}dwlrq hslvrghv fohduo| lqglfdwh wkdw wkh wlplqj ri hohfwlrqv dhfw wkh fkrlfh ri dqfkru iru vwdelol}dwlrq1 Lq sduwlfxodu/srolf|0pdnhuv dvvhvv krz glvwdqw qh{w hohfwlrqv duh ehiruh pdnlqj wkhlu fkrlfh ri qrplqdo dqfkru lq wkh lq dwlrq vwdelol}dwlrq surjudp wkh| kdyh ghflghg wr hpedun rq1 Hvwlpdwhv vwurqjo| vxjjhvw wkdw wkh suredelolw| wkdw srolf|0pdnhuv dgrsw dq h{fkdqjh0 udwh0edvhg vwdelol}dwlrq lv kljkhu zkhq wkh| duh forvhu wr wkh gdwh vhw iru ixwxuh hohfwlrqv1 Wkh suredelolw| ri dgrswlqj d prqh|0edvhg vwdelol}dwlrq/rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/lv kljkhu zkhq ixwxuh hohfwlrqv duh idu dzd| dqg suhylrxv hohfwlrqv duh forvhu1 Pruhryhu/wkh uhvxowv vkrz wkdw wkh vwrfn ri lqwhuqdwlrqdo uhvhuyhv dydlodeoh iru srolf|0pdnhuv/krz rshq wkh hfrqrp| lv dqg krz iudjphqwhg lv wkh srolwlfdo srzhu qrw rqo| dhfw wkh fkrlfh ri dqfkru wr vwdelol}h lq dwlrq/ exw dovr wkh ghjuhh wr zklfk srolf|0pdnhuv pd| eh pruh ru ohvv rssruwxqlvwlf lq wkhlu fkrlfh ri dqfkru1 Iru h{dpsoh/wkuhh glhuhqw srolf|0pdnhuv wkdw ghflgh wr odxqfk d vwdelol}dwlrq surjudp dw glhuhqw prphqwv ri wkhlu hohfwlrq f|foh zloo kdyh/uhvshfwlyho|/78( suredelolw| ri fkrrvlqj wkh h{fkdqjh udwh dv wkh dqfkru wkuhh |hduv ehiruh hohfwlrqv/:;( wzr |hduv ehiruh hohfwlrqv dqg <<( rqh |hdu sulru wr hohfwlrqv/iru wkh fdvh zkhuh uhvhuyhv fryhu 43( ri P61 Olnhzlvh/rwkhu wklqjv htxdo/d glhuhqfh ri derxw wkuhh |hduv lq wkh wlph uhpdlqlqj wr qh{w hohfwlrqv lpso| wkdw srolf|0pdnhuv zloo dgrsw dq h{fkdqjh0udwh0edvhg vwdelol}dwlrq zlwk suredelolwlhv ri :9( +yh |hduv ehiruh hohfwlrqv, dqg 433( +wzr |hduv sulru wr hohfwlrqv,1 Wkh srolwlfdo hfrqrp| olwhudwxuh kdv grfxphqwhg wkh lpsdfw ri hohfwlrqv rq glhuhqw hfrqrplf yduldeohv udqjlqj iurp sxeolf exgjhw ghflwv wr lq dwlrq dqg uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh1 6 Srolwlfdo rssruwxqlvp lv eurdgo| ghqhg wkurxjkrxw wkh sdshu dv wkh srolf|0pdnhu*v fkrlfh ri d sduwlfxodu srolf| wdnlqj lqwr dffrxqw wkh wlplqj ri hohfwlrqv1 Wklv srolf|/ lq wxuq/ idyruv khu fdqglgdf| hqkdqflqj khu suredelolw| ri zlqqlqj wkh hohfwlrqv1 5 Lq sduwlfxodu/wkhruhwlfdo dqg hpslulfdo sdshuv kdyh hvwdeolvkhg wkdw wkh h{lvwhqfh ri srolwlfdo rssruwxqlvp lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv fuhdwhv d frpprq sdwwhuq zkhuh wkhvh glhuhqw yduldeohv f|foh durxqg hohfwlrqv1 Wklv sdshu frqwulexwhv wr wkh h{lvwlqj olwhudwxuh grfxphqwlqj wkh lpsdfw ri hohfwlrqv dqg srolwlfdo rssruwxqlvp rq d yhu| lpsruwdqw srolf| yduldeoh wkdw iru ghfdghv kdv rffxslhg wkh dwwhqwlrq ri hfrqrplvwv lqwhuhvwhg lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv 0 qdpho|/ wkh qrplqdo dqfkru wr vwdelol}h lq dwlrq1 Wklv sdshu frqwulexwhv wr xqghuvwdqglqj ri lqwhudfwlrq ehwzhhq srolwlfdo dqg hfrqrplf skhqrphqd1 Vlplodu phwkrgrorj| frxog eh xvhg wr vwxg| wkh ghwhuplqdwlrq ri pdq| rwkhu hfrqrplf srolf| yduldeohv grfxphqwlqj wkh hhfwv ri hohfwlrqv dqg wkh h{lvwhqfh ru qrw ri srolwlfdo rssruwxqlvp ehklqg wkhlu ghwhuplqdwlrq1 Dq lqwhuhvwlqj txhvwlrq zrxog eh wr dvvhvv li wkh hhfw ri hohfwrudo srolwlfv rq hfrqrplf srolf| lv glhuhqw lq ghyhorshg dqg ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv1 Li vr/lw pljkw eh vxjjhvwhg wkdw vwuhqjkwhqlqj wkh lqvwlwxwlrqv wkdw ryhuvljkw srolwlfldqv lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv pljkw uhgxfh wkh ghjuhh ri h{lvwlqj srolwlfdo rssruwxqlvp zklfk/lq wxuq/pd| lpsuryh wkh txdolw| ri hfrqrplf srolf| ehqhwlqj wkh vrflhwlhv lq wkhvh frxqwulhv1 Wkh sdshu lv rujdql}hg dv iroorzv= Vhfwlrq 5 ghwdlov wkh glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq prqh|0edvhg dqg h{fkdqjh0udwh edvhg vwdelol}dwlrq surjudpv/Vhfwlrq 6 ghvfulehv wkh rssruwxqlvwlf xvh ri pdfurhfrqrplf yduldeohv zlwk sduwlfxodu hpskdvlv rq wkh h{lvwlqj olwhudwxuh/Vhfwlrq 7 dgguhvvhv wkh rssruwxqlvwlf ehkdylru ehklqg wkh fkrlfh ri vwdelol}dwlrq vwudwhjlhv/Vhfwlrq 8 ghvfulehv wkh gdwd vrxufhv dqg wkh vdpsoh/vhfwlrq 9 ghqhv wkh prgho dqg phwkrgrorj| xvhg lq wkh hvwlpdwlrq surfhgxuh/Vhfwlrq : frqvlghuv h{whqvlrqv wr wkh edvlf prgho dqg Vhfwlrq ; frqfoxghv1 5 Prqh|0edvhg yhuvxv H{fkdqjh0Udwh0edvhg Vwdelol}d0 wlrq Fkurqlf lq dwlrq kdv ehhq d pdmru sureohp lq wkh odwh 53wk fhqwxu| iru pdq| frxqwulhv lq wkh ghyhorslqj zruog dqg hvshfldoo| lq Odwlq Dphulfd1 Wkh glyhuvh vwdelol}dwlrq dwwhpswv sxuvxhg lq Odwlq Dphulfd/Lvudho/Wxunh| dqg Lfhodqg kdyh doorzhg vrph hfrqrplvwv wr 6 lghqwli| xqltxh vw|ol}hg idfwv iru hdfk w|sh ri vwdelol}dwlrq vwudwhj|17 Wkh ghedwhv ryhu zkdw vwudwhj| wr dgrsw lq rughu wr vwdelol}h wkh hfrqrp| kdyh ehhq lqwhqvh/dqg kdyh ehhq fhqwhuhg