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Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC Interim Update (Q1 FY 14/15) th 16 September 2014 Hotels and Travels Sector Revenue has gained 14% while profit attributable to shareholders increased Recommendation: BUY by 9% for the quarter ending June 2014 amidst a 9% increase in Sri Lanka LOLC SEC Valuation: LKR 103 sector revenue despite 2% decrease in South Asian sector revenue. GP margin has increased to 78% in Q1FY14/15 compared to 77% in the in Share Details Q1FY13/14. NP margin has increased from 8% in Q1FY13/14 to 11% in Bloomberg Ticker AHUN SL Q1FY 14/15. Share Price (LKR) 83.70 Market Cap (LKR Mn) 25,221 Q4 FY Q1 FY Q2 FY Q3 FY Q4 FY Q1 FY Issued Quantity (Mn) 336 12/13 13/14 13/14 13/14 13/14 14/15 Share Price Performance Revenue 3,875 2,470 2,856 3,286 4,027 2,543 1m 6m 12m 1,738 729 762 1,121 2,116 775 EBITDA Absolute -0.71 16.81 28.01 1,549 543 572 948 1,903 585 PBIT Relative To ASPI -3.91 -4.01 2.23 964 262 312 545 1,222 285 Net Profit 52 W High/Low (LKR) 87.00/62.10 PE (X) 14.81 11.56 11.92 12.25 10.34 12.03 52 W Avg. Volume 65,173 PBV (X) 1.67 1.69 1.79 1.75 1.26 1.87 Beta (6 months) 0.91 *Figures are in LKR Mn while PE is calculated using trailing 12 months earnings. LKR 90 Quarter profits continued to post positive results with Q1 FY 14/15 85 posting a growth rate of 9%. GP margin was 78%, slightly in line with 80 previous first quarter. Net profit margin was 11%, highest figure 75 70 recorded for a 1st quarter in 5 years. 65 During the first eight months of 2014 tourist arrivals have increased 60 to 1,001,643 (+23%) according to SLTDA. During the first seven 55 50 months of 2014, Maldivian Tourist arrivals have increased by 11.8% 16-Sep-13 16-Dec-13 16-Mar-14 16-Jun-14 16-Sep-14 to 701,704. The property in Negombo will be refurbished and will comprise of Business Nature 150 rooms and is expected to be completed for operations by Winter Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC (AHUN) owns and 2014. Further, it is expected that 90 rooms will be added to The operates hotels and resorts in Sri Lanka and in other South Asian countries including India, Oman and Sands Kaluthara by the end of 2014. Maldives. AHUN had raised a loan amounting to LKR 3.2 Bn to finance capital expenditure and accordingly, the gearing ratio has risen to 45% from Shareholder Details as at 30.06.2014 26% in March 2014. Aitken Spence PLC 71.21% Dividend payout ratio has been increasing in line with the earnings Employees Provident Fund 9.04% growth and expected to continue (forecast dividend yield is 1.53%). Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation - Life Fund 1.89% AHUN is trading at an attractive trailing PE of LKR 12.03X while HSBC INTL Nominees Ltd 1.65% Hotels and Travels sector is trading at a trailing PE of circa 53X. Ace Agro (Pvt) Ltd 1.32% Valuation Analyst: Damith Wasantha +94 117 880837 We have used the Free Cash Flow method to value the stock (cost of equity-13% [email protected] and 5% terminal growth). Latest interim results are in tandem with our forecasts. We have maintained our intrinsic value at LKR 103. At the current share price forward PE multiple is circa 12.03X. We maintain our recommendation BUY. (Please refer page 5 for Recommendation Guidance). Interim Update: Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC | 16 September 2014 LKR Mn Net Revenue Quarterly LKR Mn Net Profit Quarterly 5000 1200 1000 4000 800 3000 600 2000 400 200 1000 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -200 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 LKR Mn Segmental Gross Revenue GP margin quarterly 10000 95.00% 8000 90.00% 6000 85.00% 4000 80.00% 2000 75.00% 0 70.00% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sri Lankan South Asian Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Source: AHUN Interim Financial Statements, Bloomberg Table 1: Peer Comparison Name Market Cap (USD) ROE % PE (X) PBV (X) Div. Yield % Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC 217 Mn 16.85 12.03 1.87 1.78 John Keells Hotels PLC 187 Mn 10.38 13.58 1.34 1.50 Serendib Hotels PLC 25 Mn 11.72 18.23 1.90 N.A Banyan Tree Holdings Limited (Singapore) 395 Mn 0.50 177.03 0.93 1.54 Shangri-La Asia Limited (Hong Kong) 4,826 Mn 4.09 18.99 0.77 0.84 Table 2: Valuation Sensitivity Matrix Cost of Equity Share price in LKR 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 3% 116 103 89 83 76 4% 129 112 95 88 80 te 5% 145 124 103 95 85 Ra 6% 168 140 113 103 92 Terminal Terminal Growth 7% 202 162 127 114 100 Source: LOLC SEC Research, Bloomberg 2 | LOLC Securities Limited Interim Update: Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC | 16 September 2014 Table 3: Forecast Income Statement and Balance Sheet Figures in LKR Mn FY 12/13 FY 13/14 FY 14/15(Q1) FY 14/15 (F) FY 15/16 (F) Income Statement Revenue 11,567 12,532 2,544 13,172 15,034 Cost of Revenue (2,273) (2,398) (565) (2,520) (2,876) Gross Profit 9,294 10,134 1,979 10,652 12,158 Distribution cost - Administration cost (5,393) (5,798) (1,460) (6,094) (6,956) Operating Income 3,149 3,966 585 4,062 4,746 Net Non-Operating Gains (Losses) 52 112 29 1,184 1,378 Pretax Income 3,201 4,078 614 5,246 6,123 Income Tax Expense (465) (561) (137) (722) (843) Net Profit att. to shareholders 1,782 2,341 285 2,701 3,153 Balance Sheet Cash & Short Term Investments 7,113 8,753 7,900 8,853 11,200 Accounts & Notes Receivable 968 1,363 1,292 1,229 1,402 Inventories 223 219 247 232 265 Total Current Assets 6,229 9,232 10,317 11,122 13,756 Total Long-Term Assets 16,130 16,745 20,177 20,319 20,388 Total Assets 22,360 25,977 30,494 31,441 34,144 Accounts Payable 372 271 285 339 387 Other Short-Term Liabilities 1,950 2,212 3,687 2,323 2,439 Total Current Liabilities 3,436 3,574 5,369 4,063 4,227 Total Long-Term Liabilities 3,095 3,235 6,219 5,941 5,958 Total Liabilities 6,530 6,809 11,588 10,004 10,184 Share Capital 3,555 3,555 3,555 3,555 3,555 Retained Earnings & Other Equity 9,206 11,659 11,574 13,928 16,451 Total Equity 15,829 19,168 18,907 21,437 23,960 Total Liabilities & Equity 22,360 25,977 30,494 31,441 34,144 Source: Company Data and LOLC SEC Research 3 | LOLC Securities Limited Interim Update: Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC | 16 September 2014 Table 4: Forecast Cash Flow Statement and Ratios Figures in LKR Mn FY 11/12 FY 12/13 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 (F) FY 15/16 (F) Cash Flow Statement Net Income 1,395 1,782 4,735 2,701 3,153 Depreciation & Amortization 451 733 2,645 927 930 Changes in Non-Cash Capital 715 162 (278) 189 (159) Cash From Operations 3,334 3,810 9,465 3,817 3,925 Capital Expenditures (2,397) (1,355) (4,537) (4,500) (1,000) Increase in Investments (86) (5) - - - Cash From Investing Activities (2,675) (1,331) (5,810) (4,573) (1,081) Dividends Paid (183) (250) (351) (432) (631) Change in Short-Term Borrowings - - - 3,111 116 Cash from Financing Activities (801) (390) 136 2,694 (498) Net Changes in Cash (143) 2,089 3,790 1,938 2,347 Ratios Revenue growth 19% 26% 8% 5% 14% Net profit growth 35% 28% 31% 15% 17% GP Margin 79% 80% 81% 81% 81% NP Margin 15.18% 15.41% 18.68% 20.51% 20.97% Earnings per share (LKR) 4.15 5.30 6.96 8.03 9.38 Book Value per share (LKR) 40.26 47.07 57.00 63.75 71.25 PE ratio (X) 23.62 14.81 10.34 10.46 8.96 PBV (X) 2.43 1.67 1.26 1.32 1.18 Current Ratio (X) 1.36 1.81 2.58 2.74 3.25 Asset turnover ratio (X) 0.46 0.52 0.48 0.42 0.44 ROE 10.31% 11.26% 12.21% 12.60% 13.16% ROA 7.03% 7.97% 9.01% 8.59% 9.24% Debt to Equity Ratio 20.05% 17.46% 15.42% 22.28% 20.52% Dividend per share (LKR) 0.54 0.74 1.04 1.29 1.88 Dividend yield 0.56% 0.95% 1.45% 1.53% 2.23% Source: Company Data and LOLC SEC Research Recommendation Guidance 4 | LOLC Securities Limited Interim Update: Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC | 16 September 2014 BUY – expected return > 10% in excess of benchmark return SELL – expected return less than benchmark return HOLD – expected return between 0% and 10% in excess of benchmark return Investment Horizon: 3 years Benchmark Interest Rate: Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) published by Central Bank of Sri Lanka.
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