THETHE CHINESECHINESE FUTUREFUTURE Michel C. Oksenberg Michael D. Swaine Daniel C. Lynch PACIFIC COUNCIL ON INTERNATIONAL POLICY RAND CENTER FOR ASIA-PACIFIC POLICY THETHE CHINESECHINESE FUTUREFUTURE Michel C. Oksenberg Michael D. Swaine Daniel C. Lynch PACIFIC COUNCIL ON INTERNATIONAL POLICY RAND CENTER FOR ASIA-PACIFIC POLICY PACIFIC COUNCIL ON INTERNATIONAL POLICY LOS ANGELES, CA 90089-0035 TEL: (213) 740-8118 FAX: (213) 740-9498 E-MAIL:
[email protected] RAND CENTER FOR ASIA-PACIFIC POLICY 1700 MAIN STREET SANTA MONICA, CA 90407-2138 TEL: (310) 393-0411 FAX: (310) 451-7034 E-MAIL:
[email protected] CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 THE CHINESE FUTURE Overview 3 The Study Group on the Future of China 4 Consensus Views 4 A Daunting List of Problems 6 Political Change 8 Succession Politics 9 Contradictory Social Trends 12 The Improved Human Condition 13 The Political Quandary 15 The Challenges to Economic Growth 16 Environment 17 Energy 18 Education 18 Popular Nationalism 19 The Military 21 Deep versus Shallow Integration into World Affairs 24 Policy Implications 25 AUTHORS OF THE REPORT 30 STUDY GROUP PARTICIPANTS 31 SPONSORING ORGANIZATIONS 33 INTRODUCTION ow the world evolves in the next generation will depend to a consid- erable extent on the future of China, the most populous country and Hone of the fastest growing economies in the world. As China emerges, some influential observers argue that inevitable conflict with the United States lies ahead, while others suggest that China’s system is headed for a col- lapse similar to those of the former Soviet Union and other communist coun- tries. Important decisions for U.S.