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Telford Homes FY19 Results

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Telford Homes FY19 Results Telford Homes FY19 results Executing the Build to Rent strategy Construction & materials 4 June 2019 FY19 results were in line with February guidance and the year ended with lower net debt than we had anticipated. The migration to a dominant Build Price 297.5p to Rent (BTR)-led pipeline is well underway. The first developments of this Market cap £226m type were handed over in the year and, together with the announced strategic partnerships, other live projects indicate good momentum in this Net debt (£m) at end March 2019 95.7 sub-sector. As before, FY20 will reflect other project and open-market Including group share of JV debt effects before earnings start to rebuild from FY21, consistent with our Shares in issue 75.7m estimates. Telford’s valuation looks conservative if the company is able to Free float 96% sustain or exceed our projected FY22 EBIT over the long term. Code TEF Revenue PBT* EPS* DPS P/E Yield Primary exchange AIM Year end (£m) (£m) (p) (p) (x) (%) Secondary exchange N/A 03/18 316.2 46.0 49.4 17.0 6.0 5.7 03/19 354.3 40.1 44.5 17.0 6.7 5.7 Share price performance 03/20e 377.4 25.0 26.3 17.0 11.3 5.7 03/21e 453.7 30.4 30.6 17.0 9.7 5.7 03/22e 511.7 39.8 41.8 19.5 7.1 6.1 Note: Telford’s share of JVs is included.*PBT and EPS are normalised. Busy year although earnings below FY18 FY19 results included record revenue generation and reported PBT met management’s February guidance. Although this was below expectations earlier in the year, the company made broad progress across a number of project and tenure % 1m 3m 12m types. At the margin, subdued London residential market conditions constrained open-market sales. This, the previously referred to later completion of City North, Abs 7.5 4.9 (35.2) N4, and the transition to an increasing proportion of BTR developments create a Rel (local) 10.7 4.4 (30.2) dip in expected earnings in FY20 before they should start to rebuild in FY21e. This 52-week high/low 465p 267p profile is in line with our previously published estimates. Business description Tangible progress in the BTR sub sector Listed on AIM in 2001, Telford Homes is a London- focused residential property developer. Its portfolio In total, 31% of FY19 revenues were generated from BTR developments, an of developments includes open market sales (in increase in value of 60% y-o-y to £109m, Moreover, BTR-led projects account for multi-occupancy, including mixed-use, c 70% of the current pipeline’s £1.59bn gross development value. The direction of developments), the build-to-rent subsector travel is clear; beyond known existing projects, the announced strategic (alongside investment partners) and affordable homes delivered to housing associations. partnerships with M&G and Invesco indicate that further BTR sector developments are firmly on the agenda. Next events Valuation: Attractive yield ahead of earnings uplift FY19 final DPS 8.5p ex dividend 6 June The company’s share price has recently regained the level seen when we initiated AGM 11 July coverage at the end of February and has underperformed the FTSE All Share Index Analyst by c 3% over this period. On our FY21 estimates, Telford’s P/E is 9.7x with a Toby Thorrington +44 (0)20 3077 5721 prospective 5.7% dividend yield on offer (as well as 2.9% with the FY19 final). On [email protected] our updated DCF analysis, the current share price is equivalent to EBIT generation around expected FY21 levels into perpetuity. Raising this to our projected FY22 Edison profile page EBIT generates a 418p per-share valuation for the company. Telford Homes is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited FY19 results overview FY19 PBT met management’s revised guidance in February and although this was below the prior year, demonstrable progress was made in transitioning Telford Homes to a BTR-centric developer. As part of this process, net debt declined and the company ended FY19 with a pipeline with a gross development value of £1.59bn. Declared dividends were also as flagged in February (maintained at FY18 levels) and FY20 guidance is unchanged. Exhibit 1: Telford Homes summary P&L and interim splits H1 H2 2018 H1 H2 2019 Group revenue 86.7 208.1 294.8 118.8 217.4 336.1 Share of JV revenue 12.7 8.8 21.5 10.9 7.3 18.2 Total revenue 99.3 216.9 316.2 129.6 224.7 354.3 Cost of sales -75.7 -161.1 -236.8 -101.2 -173.8 -275.0 Gross profit 23.7 55.8 79.5 28.5 50.9 79.3 Opex -13.5 -17.2 -30.7 -17.3 -20.1 -37.4 Group operating profit 10.2 38.6 48.8 11.1 30.8 41.9 Finance costs -1.5 -1.3 -2.7 -1.0 -0.8 -1.8 Pre tax profit - norm 8.7 37.3 46.0 10.1 30.0 40.1 Gross margin % - reported* 23.8% 26.8% 25.1% 21.9% 23.4% 22.4% Op Margin % - reported* 11.7% 18.5% 16.5% 9.4% 14.2% 12.5% Source: Company, Edison Investment Research. *see Financial performance section for adjusted margins. Our estimates show gross interest, results are reported net; these effects wash out at the reported PBT level. Portfolio highlights – the rise and rise of BTR: during FY19, Telford handed over four complete developments (shown at the top of Exhibit 2), added two new sites (being Oldfield Lane North, UB6 and International Way, E20 subject to planning consent) and in total worked on 23 live schemes across a full spectrum of project phases. BTR: the year included the completion of the company’s first projects of this type: the Pavilions, N1 (for L&Q), and the BTR portion of New Garden Quarter, E15 (for Folio, part of Notting Hill Genesis, which is Telford’s JV partner on this project). Two further ones (Carmen St, E14, and The Forge, E6; both for M&G) are well underway for delivery in FY20. Both of these developments also have affordable homes being built on the same site that have been separately contracted with the housing associations Poplar HARCA and L&Q. The large Parkside, SW11 project is approaching full-build contract stage with Greystar. A £105.5m BTR deal was also signed for Equipment Works, E17, just prior to the end of FY19. Open market: all units at Stratosphere and Stratford Central (both E15) and Bermondsey Works, SE16, are understood to have been completed and sold now totalling over 500 units (some of which were in prior years). The smaller Calder’s Wharf, E14, development has also completed its build phase and is approaching one third sold. The larger Manhattan Plaza and Liberty Building schemes (both E14) are also complete and substantially sold whereas the open-market buildings are due to complete in the coming months and the units are c 85% sold there also. As flagged in the February trading update, the build programme at City North, N4 is c six months behind plan due to third-party actions that mean completion is now expected during FY21. At the end of FY19, Telford had 39 finished units on hand for sale, around half of which have subsequently sold. Management reiterated comments that the London market remains subdued, especially at higher price points but Help to Buy remains helpful at the margin for homes priced under £600,000, which has historically been Telford’s main focus in this sub-segment. Apart from the projects listed below, Telford continues to work on other opportunities in the background, not least with new strategic BTR partners M&G and Invesco. Telford Homes | 4 June 2019 2 Exhibit 2: Telford Homes projects active in FY19 Value Units Units Units Units Other Brief description £m Total OM BTR AH c 5%+ Stratford Central, 181 157 - 24 LB Newham, Stratford. 31 storey residential tower with apartment mix including E15 one, two and three bedrooms, suites and apartments. Excellent transport links. The Pavilions, 156 - 156 - LB Islington, Caledonian Road. Challenging site built with one-, two- and three- N1 bed units and green conservation space. First BTR completion (for L&Q). Stratosphere, 341 307 - 34 LB Newham, Stratford High St. Two residential towers (36 and 12 storeys) with E15 one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments/penthouses. Concierge, gym, roof terrace. Bermondsey Works, 158 148 - 10 LB Southwark, S. Bermondsey. 18-storey tower, connected lower height villas SE16 one-, two- and three-bed and duplex apartments. Concierge, gym, roof gardens, school. Calders Wharf, 25 21 - 4 Y LB Tower Hamlets, Island Gardens, adjacent to the Greenwich Foot Tunnel. E14 Four-storey building with one, two and three bedrooms on a riverfront site. Liberty Building, 155 105 - 50 LB Tower Hamlets. Limeharbour, Canary Wharf. 26-storey tower, one-, two- and E14 three-bed apartments and a penthouse. Concierge, gym and private gardens. Manhattan Plaza, 170 12 5 - 50 LB Tower Hamlets, Poplar. Up to 21 storeys at its highest point comprising of a E14 mixture of apartments and townhouses. Concierge, gym, roof gardens. The Forge, 192 - 125 67 LB Newham, Upton Park. Buildings from three to 14 storeys. BTR homes sold to E6 M&G Real Estate, 67 affordable homes sold to East Thames (L&Q). Bow Garden Square, 109 83 - 26 LB Tower Hamlets, Bow.
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