Supporting Information Cairngorms National Park Local Development Plan Main Issues Report - Background Evidence 1. Housing and Population Main Issues Report - Background Evidence 1. Housing and Population This is one of five Background Evidence Reports that have informed the Cairngorms National Park Main Issues Report. These reports look at: 1 Housing and population – sets out the rationale for the new housing requirements identified in the Main Issues Report. It looks at how the population of the Park is expected to change and considers the impact this may have on the future number and types of households in the Park. It also summarises the Housing Need Demand Assessments produced by the Local Housing Authorities and identifies the housing land supply. 2 The economy – sets out the rationale for the new employment land identified in the LDP. It looks at the evidence which exists, the demand information gathered as part of a study commissioned to support the LDP and any available information published by the Local Authorities. 3 Monitoring report – an assessment of progress on the implementation of the adopted Local Plan (October 2010). 4 Other information – summary of other information which has informed the development of the Main Issues Report. 5 Site analysis – an assessment of potential development sites submitted by landowners, developers and agents as part of the CNPA ‘Call for Sites’ process. These reports set out the rationale for the approach taken in the Main Issues Report on the various topics. They provide detail not contained within the Main Issues Report, and should be read together with the Main Issues Report to get a full picture. Published by the Cairngorms National Park Authority © CNPA 2011. All rights reserved. MIR/11/01 Cairngorms National Park Main Issues Report Consultation Monday 19 September – Friday 9 December 2011 Any comments or responses to the content of these reports should be included within your consultation response on that part of the Main Issues Report and should not form a separate comment or response. Comment forms, and copies of all the Main Issues Report documents, are available from the CNPA offices or online at www.cairngorms.co.uk Responses should be sent to: Cairngorms National Park Authority FREEPOST NAT 21454 GRANTOWN-ON-SPEY PH26 3BR Email: [email protected] Further information If you have any queries regarding the consultation, please contact: Cairngorms National Park Authority Albert Memorial Hall Station Square Ballater Aberdeenshire AB35 5QB Tel: 013397 53601 Fax: 013397 55334 Email: [email protected] 3 Main Issues Report - Background Evidence 1. Housing and Population Contents 1 Introduction 6 2 Policy Framework 7 The Cairngorms National Park Plan 2007-2012 7 Local Housing Strategies 7 Housing Need and Demand Assessments 8 Scottish Planning Policy (SPP) 8 Strategic Housing Investment Plans (SHIPs) 9 3 GROS Population Projections Summary 10 Background 10 Population Projections 11 4 GROS Household Projections 14 Summary 14 Background 14 Household Projections 14 5 Key Issues for the Local Development Plan to Address - Projections 17 6 Housing Need and Demand 18 Background 18 Housing Need Demand Assessments (HNDA) within the Cairngorms National Park 19 Aberdeen City and Shire Housing Need and Demand Assessment, June 2010 20 Angus Council Housing Need and Demand Assessment, February 2010 21 Highland Council Housing Need and Demand Assessment, August 2009 22 Moray Council Housing Need and Demand Assessment, February 2010 28 Perth & Kinross Council Housing Need and Demand Assessment, August 2009 29 4 Cairngorms National Park Local Development Plan 7 Delivering Housing for Local Need 30 8 Key Issues for the Local Development Plan to Address - Supply 31 9 Housing Land Requirement 33 Current housing allocations, existing permissions and the effective land supply 33 Assumptions and flexibility 36 Calculating the new housing land requirement 37 The housing land requirement and the Local Development Plan 39 Affordable provision for the next 20 years 40 10 Key Issues for the Local Development Plan to Address – Land Requirement 41 11 Conclusions 42 12 Appendices 43 13 Glossary 305 5 Main Issues Report - Background Evidence 1. Housing and Population 1. Introduction 1.1 The Local Development Plan (LDP) must identify sufficient land to meet the demand for housing land for its area. It must focus on main proposals for development for the period of up to year ten from adoption. It must also provide a broad indication of the scale and location of growth up to year 20.1 1.2 This report sets out the rationale for the new housing requirement identified in the LDP. It looks at how the population of the Park is expected to change and considers the impact this may have on the future number and types of households in the Park. It also summarises the Housing Need Demand Assessments (HNDA) produced by the local housing authorities and identifies the housing land supply. 1 SPP para 39 5 6 Cairngorms National Park Local Development Plan 2. Policy Framework still the key document which guides the overarching context for development The Cairngorms National Park Plan planning and development management 2007-2012 until it is formally replaced. The LDP will 2.1 The Local Development Plan (LDP) is a key however take cognizance of the ongoing tool in the delivery of the vision and work to revise the NPP to ensure the two outcomes of the National Park Plan (NPP)2. documents will be in accord on completion. The NPP provides an overarching context for development planning and development Local Housing Strategies 3 management within the National Park. The 2.4 SPP states that where the Housing Need long-term vision for the National Park Demand Assessments (HNDAs) and the needs communities that are sustainable in Local Housing Strategies (LHSs) identify a social, economic and environmental terms. shortage of affordable housing it should be Basing the objectives for communities on addressed in the development plan as part of nationally published projections, the NPP the housing land allocation. The HNDA recognises the challenges facing provides the evidence base for defining communities in the Park, particularly in housing supply targets in LHS and allocating maintaining and enhancing economic land for housing in development plans. activity and service provision. It sets out a number of strategic objectives which are 2.5 Local authorities have a statutory duty to aimed at achieving sustainable communities. prepare a LHS for their local authority 4 Encourage a population level and mix in areas . The National Park boundary does the Park that meets the current and not conform to discrete housing market future needs of its communities and areas as it has a strong link with the businesses. geography of the area, and has strong links Make proactive provision to focus to Aberdeen and Inverness in terms of settlement growth in the main settlements housing market areas. (A housing market and plan for growth to meet community area is an area which is relatively self needs in other settlements. contained. This is in terms of a high Promote provision of local services that percentage (normally 75 per cent) of meets the needs of communities through households will have only sought a home community planning and other within that area.) community development initiatives. 2.6 Local authorities have a statutory Strengthen the capacity of local communities and encourage community obligation to prepare a LHS supported by a development building on existing HNDA. The LHS provides the strategic networks, expertise and experience. direction to tackle housing need and demand and to inform future investment in housing and related services across the 2.2 In its aspirations relating to housing and local authority area. It includes housing accessibility of affordable housing to supply targets covering all tenures which maintain sustainable communities, the NPP will have been informed by the HNDA. also sets out a series of strategic objectives Within this, targets should be included for for housing. affordable housing as well as market housing. It should also deal with the way in 2.3 Whilst it is important to remember that the NPP is currently being reviewed, it is 3 SPP 2010 para 86 2 Cairngorms National Park Plan 2007 4 The Housing (Scotland) Act 2001 6 7 Main Issues Report - Background Evidence 1. Housing and Population which it is expected to deal with new credible. The HNDAs produced by the supply, replacement supply, empty constituent local authorities are confirmed to properties and conversions. be robust and credible by the Scottish Government. In such circumstances, Scottish 2.7 It is normal that the LHS, which is expected Government advice confirms that the to cover a five-year period, is in line with the approach used will not be considered at production of local development plans examination. Any discussion at the although it is recommended that it considers examination will focus on the proposed a 15-year housing supply target. It is also spatial policies for housing set out in the LDP normal to prepare the LHS and Main Issues and their relationship with the HNDAs. Reports in tandem, both of which should be informed by the outcomes of the HNDAs. 2.11 Taking the HNDAs produced by the local authorities, the CNPA must then assess the 2.8 The requirement to produce a LHS and future housing and land supply requirements supporting HNDA is not a function of the within the various housing markets and put National Park Authority. The CNPA forward an appropriate solution. Within this therefore take the completed and most up- assessment, the CNPA must ensure a to-date LHSs and HNDAs from the five generous supply of sites to meet the constituent local authorities and use them to demand, both within the plan period and inform the LDP.