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A Case Study of the DSV Group Based on Fundamental Analysis

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A Case Study of the DSV Group Based on Fundamental Analysis A Case Study of the DSV Group Based on Fundamental Analysis Author: Andreas Berger Hjortholt – M.Sc. (cand.merc.) Finance and Strategic Management (FSM) Supervisor: Christian Würtz, Falck Denmark A/S, Group Business Development Master Thesis – Copenhagen Business School 2014 Submission Date: 13th of November 2014 Number of pages and Total Characters: 79 pages equal to 179.961 characters Abstract This thesis is a case study of the Danish transport company DSV Group A/S and its main objective is to address the following research question: what is the theoretical stock price for DSV Group based on an in- depth strategic and financial analysis. The freight forwarding industry is exposed to a number of issues. There is high market rivalry due to a fragmented market (from smaller domestic players to larger international competitors), governmental regulations, a customer universe that demands new product solutions, and constant negotiation of prices between the supplier (e.g. hauliers, shippers) and the customer. In addition, it is also an industry affected by broad economic measures (gross domestic product) and impacted by oil prices, freight rates, and currency fluctuations. The challenges are growing with the increase in intermodal solutions and customers that demand a worldwide network, reflected by the globalisation that has created an increase in product flow from important trade lanes between Asia-Europe, Europe-North America and Asia-North America. The high level of competition challenges the strategic agenda. The strategic path has to concentrate on a large range of parameters to distinguish itself from competitors, with specialisation in product type (automotive vs. pharmaceutical), routes and delivery type (full-truck load vs. less-than-truck load), terminal placement and warehouse services (picking and packing for customers). Another crucial factor is the ‘asset-light’ business model that is used among the international freight forwarders, helping to uphold operating margins in periods of volatility. DSV have managed to obtain a strong market position through an attractive product mix combination (product type and routes etc.) in air and sea freight. The DSV’s profitability from transportation (gross- margin per tonne and TEU) and operating margins (EBIT and EBITDA) surpasses the representative peers. In addition, DSV have managed to bring down fixed and variable costs year-to-year, which suggests that they pursue a costs leadership strategy in the core three divisions: road, air, and sea freight. However, the constantly changing industry has challenged the DSV to focus on three growth strategies: market development, market penetration and product development, which is shifting year-to-year depending on whether an acquisition opportunity arises or if customers request new transportation solutions. Broadly speaking, with no particular change in the product mix from the three core business divisions, the forecasts of revenue growth drivers (line-item approach) are based on the assessment of promising growth prospects from market and economic indicators and a strong strategic position in the market. The sales-driven approach was applied to the balance sheet items according to previous-years observations. The costs of capital were applied together with the forecast predictions in the DCF models, which gave a theoretical stock price of 174,8 DKK as of 1st July 2014. Hence, the listed stock price of the DSV Group was overvalued according to the findings in this thesis. Page 1 of 127 Table of Contents Preface 4 0. Introduction 4 0.1 Methodology 6 0.1.1 Research Approach 6 0.1.2 Validity and Reliability 7 0.1.3 Delimitation 8 0.1.4 Case Selection 9 0.1.5 Financial Statement Approach 10 0.1.6 Reorganisation of Peers Financial Statements 11 0.1.7 Valuation Approach 12 0.1.8 Definition of Product Mix 13 Chapter I The Freight Forwarding Industry and DSV Group A/S: An Introduction 14 1. Introduction to Chapter One 14 1.1 Introduction to the Freight Forwarding Industry in Europe 14 1.1.1 Freight Forwarding in Europe 15 1.1.2 Strategic Approaches of Third Part Logistics 15 1.2 Presentation of DSV 18 1.2.1 Principal Activities 18 1.2.2 Corporate Strategy and Culture 19 Chapter II Financial Analysis of Freight Forwarders 21 2. Introduction to Chapter Two 21 2.1 Profitability Analysis - Group Level 21 2.2 Financial Leverage and Net Borrowing Cost 24 2.3 Growth Analysis – Trend and Common Size Analysis 24 2.4 Segmental Analysis of freight forwarders 27 2.4.1 Profitability of Air & Sea Freight 27 2.4.2 Profitability of Road Freight 28 2.4.3 Benchmark of Transport Volumes 29 2.4.4 Tranport Ratios in Air & Sea Freight 31 2.4.5 Estimation of Road Freight 34 Chapter III Market Analysis of the Transport Service Industry 38 3. Introduction to Chapter Three 38 3.1 Segmental Fraction of the Transport Service Industry 38 3.2 Development and Trends - European Transport Service Industry 38 3.3 Development and Trends - Road Freight in Europe 39 3.4 Development and Trends - Sea Freight in Europe 40 3.4.1 Development and Trends - Sea Freight in Asia-Pacific 40 3.4.2 Development and Trends - Sea Freight in United States 40 3.5 Development and Trends - Airfreight in Europe 41 3.5.1 Development and Trends - Airfreight in Asia-Pacific 41 3.5.2 Development and Trends - Airfreight in United States 42 3.6 Concluding Remarks 42 Chapter IV Environmental Analysis of the European Transportation Industry 43 4. Introduction to Chapter Four 43 4.1 Political and Legal Factors Analysis 43 4.1.1 United Nations Framework on Climate Change 43 4.2 Economic Analysis - Insights from Macro Data 44 Page 2 of 127 4.2.1 Europe 2020: Smart, Sustainable and inclusive Growth 47 4.2.2 Fuel Costs Impact on Freight Forwarders 47 4.3 Social and Cultural Analysis 47 4.3.1 Corporate Social Responsibility 47 4.4 Technological-Analysis 48 4.5 The PEST-Influence Model 49 Chapter V Strategic Analysis of DSV Group A/S 50 5. Introduction to Chapter Five 50 5.1 Ansoff’s Growth Model 50 5.1.1 Diagnosis of Market development 50 5.1.2 Diagnosis of Product Development 51 5.1.3 Diagnosis of Market Penetration 52 5.2 Porter's Generic Strategies 54 5.2.1 Diagnosis of Differentiation Strategy 54 5.2.2 Diagnosis of Cost Leadership Strategy 54 5.3 SWOT Analysis 58 Chapter VI Forecasting of DSV Group 59 6. Introduction to Chapter Six 59 6.1 Length of Forecast Period 59 6.2 Terminal Growth Rate 60 6.3 Inflation 60 6.4 Forecasting Assumptions – Transport Ratios 61 6.4.1 Revenue Growth - Airfreight 61 6.4.2 Revenue Growth - Sea freight 62 6.4.3 Revenue Growth - Road Freight 63 6.4.4 Forecasted Income Statement 64 6.4.5 Forecasted Balance Sheet 66 6.5 Budget Control - Group Level 68 Chapter VII Valuation of DSV Group 69 7. Introduction to Chapter Seven 69 7.1 Weighted Average Costs of Capital 69 7.1.1 Costs of Equity Capital 69 7.1.2 Risk Free Rate 70 7.1.3 Risk Premium 70 7.1.4 Estimation of Beta 71 7.1.5 Capital Asset Pricing Model Applied to DSV Group 72 7.1.6 Cost of Debt Capital 72 7.1.7 Weighted Average Costs of Capital for DSV Group 73 7.2 DCF Valuation 74 7.3 Sensitivity Analysis 76 7.4 Multiples 76 7.5 Conclusion 77 8.0 Bibliography 80 9.0 Appendix 86 Page 3 of 127 Preface The aim of this thesis is to conduct a strategic and financial valuation of the Danish transport company DSV Group A/S – a public listed company with limited liability, which means that shareholders are not personally liable should the company become insolvent. My motivation for this choice is first and foremost due to the combination of the two main building blocks of my master studies: finance and strategy. A thesis based on a valuation makes it possible to use theories from both blocks and to apply them to a practical context. Myers (1984), among others, has debated how finance and strategy can mutually support each other’s shortcomings and create new standards and tools for managers in their decision-making. In order words, strategy can contribute to finance theory where the discounted cash flow model (DCF) enhances flexibility, as well as assisting in the forecasting of future values and growth. 0. Introduction In advanced economies, the allocation of capital from investors provides the oil to the wheels of an entrepreneur’s project or a corporation’s engine to invest in a pool of net present value projects (NPV). A basic requirement from the investor is an acceptable and efficiently-managed return on their investment. In other words, the return from investments should equal or surpass the opportunity costs of capital (Weighted Average Cost of Capital - later referred to as WACC). However, capital markets have constraints in the form of both incentive problems and information asymmetries. From the perspective of private investors, in a publicly listed firm (which are often small and passive) the directors (CEO) may not always work in the best interests of the investors. Jensen and Meckling (1976) describe this relationship, in their analysis of property rights, as the conflict of interests between the shareholder (the principal) and the director (agent): ‘If both parties to the relationship are utility maximizers there is good reason to believe that the agent will not always act in the best interests of the principal’ (pp. 305). In light of this likelihood for self-interested behaviour, the contract between the agent and principal is as such incomplete, meaning that the contract cannot fully acknowledge the self-interested behaviour of the agent.
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