November 2019 Contributors Girma Ebrahim (IWMI) Fanilo Father (DWS-BW) Chipo Hlatywayo (ZINWA) Keodumetse Keetile (DWS-BW) Piet Kenabatho (University of Botswana) Jonathan Lautze (Project Leader, IWMI) Manuel Magombeyi (IWMI) Kwazi Majola (DWS-SA) Boitshoko Matlhakoane (University of Witwatersrand) Linda Modo (DWS-BW) Pako Mowaneng (University of Botswana) Percy Mugwangwavari (Department of Water Resources Planning and Management Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Climate and Rural Resettlement, Zimbabwe) Patience Mukuyu (IWMI) Brighton Munyai (SADC-GMI) Robert Mutepfa (Department of Water Resources Planning and Management Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Climate and Rural Resettlement, Zimbabwe) Elelwani Netshitanini (DWS-SA) Benjamin Ngoni (DWS-BW) Welcome Nyalungu (DWS-SA) Ben Nyikadzino (ZINWA) Paul Pavelic (IWMI) Alfred Petros (DWS-BW) Fhedzisani Ramusiya (DWS-SA) Farai Simba (University of Great Zimbabwe) Karen Villholth (IWMI) i Acronyms AfDB African Development Bank AGWNET Africa Groundwater Network AMD Acid mine drainage BIOPAMA Biodiversity and Protected Areas Management BCL Bamangwato Concessions Ltd CMA Catchment Management Agency DWA Department of Water Affairs DWS-BW Department of Water and Sanitation-Botswana DWS-SA Department of Water and Sanitation-South Africa DoH Department of Health DWAF Department of Water Affairs and Forestry EFR Environmental Flow Requirements ET Evapotranspiration EMA Environmental Management Agency FDC Flow Duration Curve FAO Food and Agricultural Organization GDE Groundwater Depended Ecosystems GMI Groundwater Management Institute GEF Global Environment Fund GLEAM Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model GDP Gross Domestic Product GPS Global Positioning System HIV Human Immune Virus IB Irrigation Board IWMI International Water Management Institute IUCN International Union for Conversation of Nature IMERCSA Musokotwane Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa IPCC International Panel for Climate Change IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management LIMCOM Limpopo Watercourse Commission LMB Limpopo Mobile Belt LULCC Land Use and Land Cover Change LGC Limpopo Groundwater Committee MLM Musina Local Municipality MAP Mean Annual Precipitation MBGL metres below ground level MCM Million Cubic Meters MoLAWCRR Ministry of Land Water, Agriculture, Climate and Rural Resettlement MoLMWSS Ministry of Land Management, Water and Sanitation Services MoMEWR Ministry of Mineral, Energy and Water Resources NDP National Development Plan NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NWPR National Water Policy Review NWP National Water Policy NWRSII National Water Resources Strategy II NWSMP National Water and Sanitation Master Plan NWP National Water Policy ii NCU National Coordinating Unit NAC National Action Committee PET Potential evapotranspiration RBO River Basin Organisation RSAP Regional Strategic Action Plan RWIMS Rural WASH Information System RQOs Resource Quality Objectives RDRM Revised Desktop Reserve Model SADC Southern African Development Community SANP South Africa National Parks SARDC South African Research and Documentation Centre SAP Strategic Action Plan TFCA Transfrontier Conservation Area TB Tuberculosis TDA Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis TDS Total Dissolved Solids UB University of Botswana USEPA United States Environmental Protection Agency UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development VIP Ventilated Improved Pit VDC Village Development Committee WUC Water Utilities Corporation WASH Water Sanitation and Hygiene WMO World Meteorological Organization WARMS Water use Authorization and Registration Management System WFDs Wetting Front Detectors WDM Water Demand Management WE Water Efficiency WUAs Water User Associations WUC Water Utilities Cooperation WAB Water Apportionment Board WB Water Boards WSA Water Service Authorities ZINWA Zimbabwe Water Authority ZimVac Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee ZMSD Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department iii Executive Summary Conjunctive Management of Transboundary Waters in Southern Africa: Taking the first step Responding to recognition of the importance of international river basins, there has been prolific activity in transboundary surface-water cooperation in Africa generally and in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) specifically. A growing body of work, however, has also now identified and delineated more than 30 transboundary aquifers in the SADC Region and many more in Africa as a whole. Managing shared aquifers cooperatively and conjunctively – i.e., linking their management with pre-existing cooperative surface water frameworks – can foster progress towards the region’s development goals including strengthening resilience, improving agricultural production, enhancing water security and achieving sustainable growth. A critical first step toward achieving cooperative and conjunctive management is achieving a common understanding of the international watercourse system. Undertaking a Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) enables countries, which share a watercourse, to reach this common understanding. Approach to this TDA: This report builds joint understanding of the current state of the surface water and groundwater resources in the Tuli Karoo Aquifer and associated surface waters, shared among Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The main aims of this TDA are as follows: Gather, interpret, and synthesize information on the water-related context and issues in the shared Tuli Karoo Aquifer Area and associated river system Identify and prioritize major transboundary issues in the shared water system Assess data depth and data gaps related to the shared system Foster convergence toward a common understanding on the current state of the shared Tuli Karoo Aquifer and associated river system Structured into ten sections and populated with data obtained through extensive search and engagement with the three countries, the report is an inclusive, joint effort that includes i) focus on areas contained by all three countries in the Tuli Karoo System, and ii) focus on both surface water and groundwater. The report includes focus on demography and socioeconomics, climate, groundwater and hydrogeology, surface water hydrology and quality, land use and land cover, water uses, and institutions and governance. Ultimately, the report is believed to lay a foundation on which water cooperation on the Tuli Karoo can grow. The Tuli Karoo: Complexity yet Opportunity The Tuli Karoo System is a geography of food insecurity, climate vulnerability, poverty, unemployment and migration. In the context of shared groundwater systems in the SADC region that have received project focus to-date (Ramotswa, Stampriet, Shire), the Tuli Karoo appears on the complex end of the spectrum. It is shared by three countries. It is in a highly arid context. Some six surface water catchments intersect with the aquifer, and these catchments have been the focus of substantial water resources development in recent years. The aquifer itself has an alluvial layer that is heavily tapped in South Africa and a sandstone layer that receives substantial use in Botswana. Despite the stressed context in which the Tuli Karoo System finds itself, there remains substantial potential for more benefits to be tapped. If carefully undertaken, for example, there may be potential for water use in productive activities such as agriculture—particularly if efficiency gains are achieved. Further, the proportion of water stored is currently high in the three countries yet management of this storage infrastructure appears unilateral. Scope for generation of additional benefit may lie in closer collaboration in the management of such national infrastructure. Yet an additional, and perhaps the most promising, way to enhance benefits derived from this shared system may lie in better understanding and harnessing groundwater. iv Five Key Issues Ultimately, review of conditions in the chapters of this report led to preliminary identification of five key issues. These five issues are as follows: 1. There is a need for improved, joint monitoring and greater understanding of the system While the volume of knowledge gaps on the Tuli Karoo can be overwhelming, addressing approximately three key areas can lay a foundation for informed decision-making and management. A first area is understanding river flow and groundwater recharge, presumably through an expanded and coordinated monitoring network. A second area is determining surface vs. groundwater use, perhaps through refinement to data collection methods in countries. A third area is understanding how surface and groundwater interact; focused investigations could be undertaken toward this end through use of chemical tracers. 2. Potential for irrigation expansion can be explored if efficiency gains are achieved Irrigation is simultaneously a means to enhancing food security, promoting rural development and mitigating effects of erratic rains. In the Tuli Karoo, there is likely scope to enhance the efficiency of existing schemes—particularly smallholder schemes and particularly in lower tech contexts outside of South Africa. Realization of such gains would likely free up water to enable potential for irrigation expansion to be considered. 3. Suitable resilience interventions should be identified, assessed and implemented The risks of climate variability and change in the Tuli Karoo are clear, and not unlike