December 5, 2016 “So far this year, light trucks have performed better than the car segments in value retention. However, last week we saw a different trend with larger drops in truck segments.” Anil Goyal, Senior Vice President of Automotive Valuation and Analytics +0.2% 0% -0.2% -$8 -0.4% -0.14% -$51 -$58 -$57 -$29 -0.35% -0.31% -0.6% -0.40% CARS -$51 -0.56% WEEKLY CHANGE WEEKLY -0.8% -0.60% -$290 -1.0% -$89 -0.80% -0.89% -$308 -$139 -1.2% -0.99% -0.97% +0.2% $0 0% 0% -0.2% -0.4% -$17 -0.21% -$47 -$105 -0.6% -$95 -0.40% TRUCKS -$114 -0.47% -$183 -$80 -$114 -0.8% -$82 -$105 -0.68% WEEKLY CHANGE WEEKLY -0.61% -0.63% -$114 -0.62% -0.64% -0.69% -0.71% -$94 -1.0% -$169 -0.77% -0.82% -1.2% -0.90% Model Years: 2008-2014, Volume Weighted Wholesale Average Values, Weekly Change from 11/25/16 to 12/02/16 Trucks Depreciated Higher than Cars Last Week Volume-weighted, overall car values decreased by 0.56% last week. This is same as the average depreciation rate of 0.56% seen in the previous four weeks. In car segments, Prestige Luxury Car, Sporty Car and Full-Size Car segments declined the most, dropping by 0.99%, 0.97% and 0.89%, respectively. Volume-weighted, overall truck values decreased by 0.68% last week. This is higher than the average depreciation rate of 0.47% seen in the previous four weeks. In truck segments, Full-Size Crossover/SUV, Minivan and Full-Size Van segments declined the most, dropping by 0.90%, 0.82% and 0.77%, respectively. December 5, 2016 Sentiment from the Auction Lanes Our editors and personnel attend about 60 auctions every week across the country to provide key insights: “The market trend here is slow, plenty of attendance and consignment but a lot of no-sales.” David from TX “Steady market here with low mileage clean cars doing well.” Frank from AZ “Demand seems to be on the older model mid-size sedans and SUVs but still a high number of no-sales.” Greg from NV “A good sale today with trucks and SUVs both in strong demand.” James from TN “Sales have been strong here over the past few weeks with SUVs and mid-size sedans remaining in demand.” Norm from IL “Vehicle volume is high in this location and the market is soft.” Bob from WA Monthly Depreciation by Segment (11/1/16-12/1/16) Overall, depreciation was 2.3% last month. Although crossovers and SUVs have done well, the smallest versions of this segment have underperformed. Sub-compact luxury and mainstream crossovers experienced the most depreciation last month at 3.5% or higher. Vehicle Highlight 2017 Acura ILX is available in Base, Premium Package, Tech Package, Premium w/A- SPEC and Tech w/A-SPEC. Base MSRP starts at $28,930 including factory destination charge. The powertrain is a 201-hp 2.4-liter four-cylinder with front-wheel drive. Close competitors include Audi A3, BMW 2-series, Mercedes-Benz CLA-class and Buick Verano. This week’s report includes our Monthly Edition Supplement on Specialty Markets. 2 SPECIALTY MARKETS: COLLECTIBLE CARS December 5, 2016 Collectible Cars End Year on a High Note “As we head into the final weeks of 2016, interest in collectible cars, especially on the late-model higher end of the spectrum, remains strong. Auctions continue to be well attended, and buyers are still willing to open up their wallets for the best cars. Auction Week in Scottsdale is right around the corner, and I expect the good times to continue.” Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets Percent Change from December 2015 to December 2016 6.00% 4.20% 4.00% 2.15% 2.24% 1.60% 1.03% 2.00% -8.48% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% -10.00% Muscle Cars Pony Cars American Classics Sports Cars Exotic Cars Classic Trucks Mecum’s Dallas sale totaled just under $25,000,000 on the sale of 756 vehicles out of the 1,041 offered. It featured primarily American muscle cars with a few exotics mixed in. The sell through rate was an outstanding 73%, much higher than most of the other Mecum auctions held so far this year, which have hovered around 50%. Perhaps the expectations of sellers and buyers are beginning to become more closely aligned. Auctions America held their final sale of 2016 at Hilton Head Island in South Carolina. This was a rather intimate affair, with only 103 handpicked vehicles on offer. Totals came in at $5,700,000 on the sale of 58 vehicles, a sell through rate of 56%. The star of the show was the “barn find” Porsche 356A Speedster which sold for roughly three times its pre-sale estimate, and considerably more than a nicely restored car would normally bring. “Barn finds”, some in horrible condition, have been very trendy the past couple of years. Notable Recent Auction Sales Include: 1957 Porsche 356A 1600 Speedster $665,000 (Auctions America) 1967 Shelby Cobra 427 $726,000 (Auctions America) 2006 Ford GT Heritage Coupe $305,000 (Auctions America) 2004 Porsche Carrera GT $800,000 (Auctions America) 1960 Maserati 3500GT Coupe $222,750 (Auctions America) 1969 Dodge Daytona 440 Hardtop $242,500 (Mecum) 2002 BMW Z8 Roadster $180,000 (Mecum) 1965 Shelby GT350 Fastback $410,000 (Mecum) 1968 Chevy Camaro Coupe Yenko 427 $335,000 (Mecum) Photo Courtesy of Auctions America 3 SPECIALTY MARKETS: RECREATIONAL VEHICLES December 5, 2016 Trailer Values Reach Another All Time High “Once again we’re seeing Travel Trailers and Fifth Wheels continue their record setting performance, which is fairly surprising given the time of year and the usual effects of seasonality. Motor Homes, which had been on quite a run up of their own, experienced a fairly substantial decline, dropping their values to where they historically have been this time of year.” Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets 46000 Motor Home Value Trends 44000 42000 40000 38000 36000 34000 32000 30000 Jul Jul Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Feb Sep Feb Feb Feb July July Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May Sept Sept Sept June June Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-13 For Motor Homes (including Class A, B, and C) Average selling price was $38,206, down $6,391 (14.3%) from previous month One year ago, the average selling price was $33,316 Auction volume was up 12% from previous month 13500 Travel Trailer and Fifth Wheel Value Trends 13000 12500 12000 11500 11000 10500 10000 9500 9000 Jul Jul Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Feb Sep Feb Feb Feb July July Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May Sept Sept Sept June June Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-13 For Towables (including Travel Trailers and Fifth Wheels) Average selling price was $13,129 up $321 (2.5%) from previous month One year ago, the average selling price was $11,069 Auction volume was up 8% from previous month 4 SPECIALTY MARKETS: POWERSPORTS December 5, 2016 Powersports Market Mixed as Winter Arrives “The Powersports market is beginning to show signs of life this month as both the Street Bike and Dual Sport segments are up in value from last month, while the Cruiser segment continues to lag behind with a drop of two percent.” Scott Yarbrough, Motorcycle & Powersports Editor Motorcycle & Powersports Percent Change November to December 2016 1.50% 1.00% 1.10% 1.00% 0.40% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% -0.90% -1.00% -1.10% -1.00% -1.50% -1.50% -1.40% -2.00% -2.00% -2.50% As is normal for the time of year, the overall Powersports market is down a little this month, showing declines of 0.5 to 1 percent with the exceptions noted above. Within the Cruiser segment, domestic models are down a bit more than their metric counterparts are. A bright spot within the segment are the Harley-Davidson V-Rods, which are outperforming the rest of the Harley lineup by about 2%. As with the rest of the country, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the Powersports market about what changes will occur with the new administration in January. From new monetary and fiscal policies as well as tax code changes that will have a major effect on the economy, to potential regulatory reforms that could affect both the manufacturers and consumers in our industry, the unknowns as we head into the future are much greater than normal right now. No matter what happens, we will be here to monitor and report back to you what the market is doing as we head forward. 5 SPECIALTY MARKETS: HEAVY DUTY December 5, 2016 Depreciation for all Heavies slowed down a bit in November “As 2016 comes to a close, 2017 has a real good chance of being a better year for the Wholesale Heavy Duty Truck Industry!” Charles Cathey, Editor – Heavy Duty Truck Data We’ll know more about the fate of December Wholesale Values in a couple of weeks, but with the large quantities of like trucks scheduled to show up at several of the sales coming up, it will definitely be a real test of current market strength, particularly for the Over The Road Segment.