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The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune Insider Poll for the Week of September 23

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The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune Insider Poll for the Week of September 23 The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for the week of September 23 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 September 2013 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 September 2013 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 September 2013 Do you think Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, will run for lieutenant governor? • "Unless the Ds are privy to polling • "If Davis goes Guv, VDP goes LtG." data no one else in TX has seen, why would they risk losing an experienced • "She has said she will not decide D in the Senate?" until Wendy does." • "If she's smart she'll let Davis test • "Don't care" the water and stay in the senate." • "Most of us who know LVD, like • "But her peers in the senate would her. A lot. We also know that she's be glad if she ran and didn't come experienced an especially calamitous back" year. I suspect that she could use her heart more than her head on making • "The passing of her father could these big-ticket item decisions. So ignite a fire for her to run state wide. there's more of a wildcard in play Even if she loses, she will know she here. Life and opportunity are fickle left it all in the political arena." and fleeting." • "Although she would bring great • "She can't win, and losing won't fundraising capability from across the help her achieve any other political country to the ticket" INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 September 2013 ambitions in San Antonio or • "Getting smoked in a LtG race and nationally." then having to go back to the Senate -- sure fire way to be a back bencher • "I'd love for her to run, but more next session." importantly for her to win especially to oversee a legislative body that has • "On Oct. 4 she will announce by proven to be misogynistic and out-of- actually talking with reporters and touch with the real issues." supporters." • "She likes being a senator too • "Why would she give up her Senate much." seat when she knows she'll lose statewide?" • "Ultimately no. If she has higher aspirations but doesn't take defeat • "Who cares?" well, this is not the race to get into. If the goal is to raise her state name ID • "Would be destroyed in the for a potential race down the road, it's general." a calculated risk. Don't want to lose too many times." • "She does a great job serving Bexar County, so hopping into that race • "Why not? She's not up in the would just take her back to San Senate until 2016 (so if she loses, she Antonio permanently." can go back to the Senate), and besides--who else will the Dems run?" • "I sure hope she will run sand I hope Davis runs the race for governor • "She risks too much and her so the Dems will plow money into influence in the Senate grows both races and take a loss. Then they substantially each session." have less money to spend in other places. Run baby run!" • "Sen. Van De Putte has no history of taking on a tough political challenge, • "She likes the attention and that is plus she has tons of embarrassing what she is doing." political baggage that she won't want to revisit at this point in her career. • "Sen. Van de Putte would be an She has nothing to gain from a suicide excellent Lt. Gov., but it would be a mission and quite a lot to lose in terms severely uphill battle. I would hate to of what she views is her legacy." lose her as a Senator!" • "She apparently is running behind Davis." INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 September 2013 Do you think Van de Putte could win a general election for lieutenant governor? • "Dan Patrick is going to win the the enthusiasm of white and black primary, and it's always the wild Dems." cards that make the biggest mistakes - it's happened in places just as • "It'll be hard to win as a democrat conservative as Texas. Can she? Yes. but it is not impossible." Will she?" • "Are you freaking kidding?" • "Texas may turn blue someday, but today isn't that day." • "Doubtful she could raise the money to be a viable contender. Plus, is • "With potential general election Texas ready for a wise Latina with a opponents like Patrick or Staples, it Dutch surname?" sure looks possible." • "She would help diversify the ticket • "No, unless her opponent provides a so that Wendy doesn't look so much Clayton Williams oops moment." like Democrat Barbie -- but she wouldn't help her much." • "It depends on who wins the Republican primary. A 'too-far-to-the- • "Of course she *could* win. right' candidate could provide a small Anything is possible. But it's very window of opportunity for the unlikely. The way this question is senator." worded, you have to answer 'yes,' even if you think it's an unlikely • "Major uphill battle for any D in a outcome." statewide race" • "Democrats are still years away • "VDP will make Texas history (by from being competitive statewide." being first Hispanic female to run for Lt. Guv - and lose...handily)." • "I say this as a Republican: Sen. Van de Putte is one of those people who • "Stalwart abortion supporters lose" you just like, which goes a long way in politics. She can win a general • "But she'll get as close as 3 points election statewide--just not this cycle." from to the magic number." • "Evan Smith said it well on KUT. A • "She can win. Likely? No. But the Democrat might over perform and get Republican base is divided on this 46% of the vote. LdP will over race, and if Dan Patrick wins the perform the D ticket and could get nomination, his glorious extremism 49%." creates an opportunity." • "Only if Dan Patrick is the R • "Largely depends on her ability to candidate" raise money among the Hispanic wealthy and her ability to appeal to • "It's not her, it's them - too many republican voters." INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 September 2013 • "Let's see, the insurance commercial • "44%" with the pig in the airplane and the flight attendant says something, what • "Anything is possible, but doubtful was it, oh yeah, 'when pigs fly!'" for now." • "If Dan Patrick wins R primary, she has a chance" If the next lieutenant governor is a Republican, will the number of Democrats heading committees rise, fall, or stay more or less in proportion to their numbers in the Senate? • "Patrick will decrease the number of door for Ds. Patrick would probably appointments; but R's and D's hate close the long fought for women's Patrick, and would just go around Senate lounge." him and change some Senate rules to decrease his power." • "Depends on who wins. Less if Patrick or Dewhurst, same with Todd; • "There are a finite number of probably more or the same with experienced Senators to lead Patterson" committees and Senate tradition is well established regarding how power • "No change…unless Patrick wins. A is shared." win by Patrick would result in a lite guv stripped of his power by his own • "If the next lieutenant governor is party." Patrick or Staples, the number of Democrats heading committees will • "Depends on WHICH republican is fall just so they can say they can tell elected lieutenant governor. If their supporters they stuck it to the Dewhurst, likely stay the same. If Democrats. If it's Dewhurst or Patterson or Staples, also likely to Patterson, the number will stay more remain quite similar as today. If or less the same." Patrick, certainly less democrats." • "Depends upon who is elected. If • "Based on early rhetoric, a Dan Patrick is elected, the number of Republican Lite Gov will be hard Democrats heading committees will pressed to hand out more committee surely fall." chairs to Dems (even if those committees aren't important)." • "Depends on who wins" • "Depends on who the next lite guv • "Patterson and Staples would is." recognize the seniority and collegiality of the body, so very little • "Depends on who wins the R change due to partisanship. If Patrick primary." were to win (and many think he will not actually run) it's Katie bar the INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 September 2013 • "Stay same if it's Dewhurst. Fall if • "'IF the next lieutenant governor is a it's Patrick. Don't know if it's Staples" republican'???" • "They only got the unimportant • "Depends on the LT. Gov. Patterson committees anyway. Like Veterans and Staple about the same because Affairs." they understand the Senate. Patrick they fall because he has no • "All depends upon who the appreciation of the Senate or its Republican is. Patrick or Staples traditions'" probably yes. Patterson or Dewhurst, I doubt it." • "I wasn't aware that they were proportionate now." • "I don't think any of the Republican candidates gives a rat's butt about the • "No change with Dewhurst or democrats so it'll definitely fall. Even Staples, fewer Democrats with if Dewhurst wins, one could see Patterson or Patrick" democratic chairs and positions on Finance dropping." • "Republicans want to lead, not scream 'fire' in an empty Senate • "It's it Patrick it will fall." Chamber.
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