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Market Surveillance & Compliance Panel Annual

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Market Surveillance & Compliance Panel Annual MARKET SURVEILLANCE & COMPLIANCE PANEL ANNUAL REPORT 2017 IN MEMORIAM JOSEPH GRIMBERG SC It is with great sadness that we mark of the Middle Temple. Joe retained the approached to represent the Presidency. He the passing of Mr Joseph Grimberg on graciousness and bearing of the best accepted the brief with reluctance, claiming 17 August 2017. English barristers all his life. He spoke with that he had lost his nerve. His performance a refined and cultured English accent – a in court belied his modesty; those who had Mr Joe Grimberg was the first Chairman of natural one, not an artificial snobby stage the privilege of watching him in action can the Market Surveillance and Compliance accent put on to impress others. He was testify to the elegant eloquence with which Panel (MSCP). He took office on also a keen sportsman who played rugby he presented the case for the Presidency. 1 January 2003, right at the beginning when and cricket for the Singapore Cricket the Singapore wholesale electricity market Club, a reflection perhaps of his anglophile Joe was undoubtedly one of the very best was inaugurated. He served for five years character. advocates to grace our courts. His leading until 31 December 2007, at a time when the role in the legal profession was recognised fledgling market was just taking off. The role In 1956, Joe returned to Singapore where when he was appointed Senior Counsel in of the Chairman was crucial in those days he joined the firm in which he spent the bulk 1997, one of the first batch of local ‘silks’. when there were no established procedures of his professional life, Drew & Napier. He In 2007, the Law Society of Singapore and precedents for the MSCP. In effect, they was the first Singaporean to be hired by the honoured him with the C C Tan Award for made things up as they went along. When firm. Starting on the bottom rung as a legal outstanding contributions to the Bar. When he stepped down at the end of 2007, his assistant, he rose to the position of Senior he passed in August 2017, tributes were colleagues fondly remembered the skillful Partner in 1967. This position he held for paid to him by the Chief Justice and the way he steered the proceedings of the twenty years, until 1987. Minister for Law, among many others. MSCP with both wit and eloquence. In that year, he became a Judicial Joe Grimberg was indeed one of a kind; Joe (as he was known to all) was a man Commissioner of the Supreme Court. He a gentleman maintaining the highest without pretensions. He was unfailingly returned to Drew & Napier as a consultant standards of decorum, courtesy and courteous both in court and out of it, even in 1989, having declined a permanent honour whether in or out of court. The to lowly pupils in his firm. Having graduated appointment as a judge. It was a loss to legal profession is greatly diminished by from Cambridge University in 1955, at the Bench. When then President Ong Teng his passing. the fag end of Empire, he was called to Cheong decided in 1995 to refer a question the Bar in England in 1956 as a barrister of law to the Constitutional Tribunal, Joe was Requiescat in pace. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Ancillary Service Indices Reserve Prices 21 INTRODUCTION 2 Interruptible Load 22 Regulation Prices 23 MARKET MONITORING Catalogue of Data and Catalogue of Monitoring Indices/ 4 ECONOMETRIC MODEL AND OUTLIER PRICES 25 Indicators of Market Performance Identification of Outlier Prices 26 Supply Indices INVESTIGATIONS Capacity Ratio 5 Summary of Investigation Activities Supply Cushion 6 29 Market Share 8 SECTIONS 50 AND 51 OF THE ELECTRICITY ACT 31 Outages 10 ASSESSMENT OF THE WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY MARKETS State of Competition and Efficiency of the Wholesale Electricity Markets 33 Demand Indices State of Compliance within the Wholesale Electricity Markets 35 Accuracy of Pre-Dispatch and Short-Term Load Forecasts 12 Accuracy of Real-Time Load Forecast 13 CONCLUSION 37 Price Indices USER GUIDE 39 Volume-Weighted Vesting Contract Hedge Price 14 and Wholesale Electricity Price Energy Indices Metered Energy Quantity 15 Correlation between WEP and Metered Energy Quantity 16 Frequency Distribution of WEP by 18 (a) Percentage of Hours of Occurrence and (b) Percentage of Energy Quantity Affected Correlation between VCHP, WEP, Fuel Oil Prices and Electricity Tariff 20 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This annual report by the Market Surveillance • The generation market share of CCGT Demand Indices Market Prices and Compliance Panel (MSCP) covers the units remained at the same level as 2016 period 1 January to 31 December 2017. It at 98.1 percent. • The average demand growth in 2017 • The average Wholesale Electricity Price is based on analyses of data and monitoring decreased to 1.9 percent, down from (WEP) increased 27.5 percent to indices compiled by the MSCP to assess • The concentration level in the generation 2.6 percent in 2016. $81.19/MWh – the first increase since the performance of the wholesale electricity sector continued to fall, with the 2012 – along with the rebound in fuel markets. The MSCP highlights the following combined market share of the three • The average demand in 2017 was about prices. observations for 2017 relative to 2016: largest generation companies declining 5,668MW, compared to 5,563MW in 2.3 percentage points from 2016 to 2016. The average monthly electricity • The average price of the benchmark Supply Indices 55.5 percent. demand peaked in August at 5,856MW. 180-centistoke high sulphur fuel oil (180-CST HSFO) surged 45.7 percent to • The average supply cushion1 decreased • The average total generation outage • The accuracy of real-time load forecast US$55.64/bbl in 2017. 0.6 percentage point from 29.5 percent in per period in 2017 increased for the in 2017 improved further with an average 2016 to 28.9 percent in 2017, showing a fourth consecutive year by 2.3 percent forecast error of 2.26 percent, the best • The total reserve payment in 2017 tightening of supply conditions relative to to 1,134MW. The average forced outage result in the history of the National increased 26.9 percent from $29.3 million that of demand. level per period dipped from 35MW in Electricity Market of Singapore. to $37.2 million. 2016 to 14MW in 2017. • The average capacity ratio2 of Combined 1 Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) units was Supply cushion measures the percentage of total supply available after matching off demand. Details can be 0.233 percentage point higher in 2017 found in the USER GUIDE of this report. at 61.05 percent. The capacity ratio for 2 Capacity ratio measures the ratio of scheduled output Steam Turbine (ST) units dropped to a generation registered facility’s maximum generation 0.3 percentage point to 0.1 percent. capacity. Details can be found in the USER GUIDE of this report. 3 Due to a technical error, the capacity ratio for CCGT in 2016 has been revised to 60.82 percent from 65.63 percent published in the 2016 report. CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION The Market Rules provide for the Market Supported by the Market Assessment Unit The Market Rules require this annual report Surveillance and Compliance Panel of EMC, the role of the MSCP is to monitor to include a summary of routine reports on (MSCP) to prepare and submit to Energy and investigate activities in the wholesale the MSCP’s monitoring and investigation Market Company Pte Ltd (EMC) an annual electricity markets and the conduct of activities, and a summary of any reports report on the conduct of its monitoring market participants, the Market Support regarding the possibility of anti-competitive and investigation activities. The report is Services Licensee, the Power System agreements or the abuse of a dominant submitted to the Energy Market Authority Operator and EMC to: position contrary to sections 50 or 51 of by EMC. This is the sixteenth report by the Electricity Act. The report also includes the MSCP since 2003 on the wholesale • identify breaches of the Market Rules, a summary of all complaints or referrals electricity markets of the National Electricity market manual or system operation filed and investigations commenced Market of Singapore. manual; and concluded, and a summary of all investigations conducted by the MSCP The current report covers the period • assess whether the underlying structure concerning offer variations after gate closure 1 January to 31 December 2017. of the wholesale electricity markets is reported by EMC. The Market Rules require This review provides the MSCP with consistent with the efficient and fair the report to contain the general assessment the opportunity to highlight significant operation of a competitive market; and by the MSCP of the state of competition and observations. compliance within, and the efficiency of, the • recommend remedial actions to mitigate wholesale electricity markets. The current MSCP members are: the conduct and inefficiencies referred to above. • T P B Menon, Chair; • Lee Keh Sai; • Philip Chua; • Professor Euston Quah; and • Professor Walter Woon 2 CONTENTS MARKET MONITORING MARKET MONITORING: Catalogue of Data and Catalogue of Monitoring Indices/Indicators of Market Performance 4 On 29 August 2003, a catalogue of data was adopted Catalogue of Data and Indicators of Market by the MSCP after public consultation. It took effect from 1 October 2003. Data is collected according to Catalogue of Monitoring Performance this catalogue, with the assistance of market entities. Indices The MAU submits regular monitoring 5 On 29 July 2004, a catalogue of monitoring indices was adopted by the MSCP after public consultation. It took To carry out monitoring effectively, the updates to the MSCP.
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