HVS Market Pulse: Dallas, TX December 20, 2018 By Kathleen D. Donahue Summary Key Economic Indicators and Lodging The greater Dallas area Market Overview continues to be a focal point of corporate relocation and Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport ﴾DFW﴿, Love Field Airport, Kay Bailey Hutchison expansion, and a building Convention Center, and local employers and headquarters, particularly within the boom is evident in both the telecommunications, technology, insurance, financial services, and healthcare fields, represent the primary urban core and outlying sources of lodging demand in the greater Dallas market. In addition to DFW's status as one of the nation's suburbs, with hotel largest airports, the end of federal flight restrictions at Dallas Love Field in October 2014 has significantly construction on the rise. boosted operations out of the airport. The following charts illustrate the passenger statistics through 2017 at the two airports. Comments Passenger Traffic at DFW and Love Field Airports FILED UNDER CATEGORIES Development & Construction Source: Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, Love Field Airport Valuations & Market Studies The 2016/17 statistics for the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center show a considerable decline in both Travel & Tourism metrics from the previous year, attributed in part to the center's temporary shutdown to host more than 5,000 Economic Trends and Cycles Gulf Coast residents in August and September ﴾two of the busier convention months﴿ following Hurricane North America United States Harvey. Texas Dallas Convention Center Statistics Source: Kay Bailey Hutchinson Convention Center The Dallas/Fort Worth area continues to be one of the top U.S. metropolitan areas for job growth. Corporate expansion, an abundance of construction activity, and a robust retail sector provide strong employment in the market. Unemployment Rates Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Several large suburb cities are major economic drivers in the area and this greater Dallas lodging market. The following data include nine hotel tracts in the Dallas market, generally located east of Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. The greater Fort Worth area, inclusive of such suburban cities as Grapevine and Arlington, is not included in the data. Hotel Inventory Source: HVS, STR After dipping early last decade, occupancy surpassed the 60% mark from 2005 through 2007; during that same period, average rate ﴾ADR﴿ improved above the rate of inflation year‐over‐year. The effects of the Great Recession caused occupancy to decline in 2008 and 2009. Occupancy rebounded in 2010 and continued to improve through 2016, reaching a new peak above the 71% mark that year. Year‐end 2017 data show occupancy decreasing just over two percentage points, as the effects of new supply were realized. Commercial demand has increased given the strengthening corporate activity, particularly in the northern suburbs. Closer to the nucleus, the Central Business District, West End, Uptown, Victory, and West Dallas areas have benefitted from revitalization efforts, with growth occurring in the high‐density residential, office, hotel, and retail/restaurant sectors. While the amount of new hotel development has caused some continued compression, market occupancy remained healthy in the year‐to‐date period through October, near 70%. ADR rose annually from 2011 through 2017, concurrent with the strengthening economy and high demand levels. The pace of ADR growth slowed in 2017, as increased supply prompted a more competitive environment. Year‐to‐date data through October 2018 illustrate a stronger increase in average rate, as new, high‐quality supply has opened in the market; moreover, the commercial segment remains strong with the existing and growing corporate presence. A modest improvement in RevPAR is expected for year‐end 2018, with a roughly one‐point occupancy contraction buoyed by an approximate $2 increase in rate. While the previous key economic indicators offer broad brushstrokes on how lodging demand is influenced in the greater Dallas area, the demand drivers and lodging supply pipeline in each of the area’s primary submarkets are diverse, experiencing dynamic change unique to each area. Downtown ,The Downtown area encompasses the Central Business District ﴾CBD﴿ of Dallas, including the Uptown District Arts District, Government District, Market Center, Design District, West End, Trinity Groves, and Victory Park. The Uptown office market is one of the most desired locations in Dallas due to the abundance of Class‐A office space, as well as the revitalization efforts occurring throughout the greater Downtown Dallas area. With a low vacancy rate and the highest rental rates in the Metroplex, the Uptown office market has proven to be a major hub for much of the city's growth and demand. This submarket has become a prime choice for financial conglomerates, high‐tech firms, and large law firms. These tenants continue to add jobs and absorb new office space. This activity should, in turn, lead to greater demand for lodging within the Uptown District. AT&T Inc., which is headquartered in the Central Business District of Dallas, is spending $100 million to revamp its four‐block Downtown Dallas headquarters campus. The West End is also a focal point of development, including projects such as the Dallas County Records building complex, the West End Market/Factory Six03, the Luminary office project, and the Dallas Holocaust and Human Rights Museum. The Dallas Market Center ﴾DMC﴿ is one of the largest hospitality demand generators in the city; the center hosts some 50 markets annually, attracting more than 200,000 retail buyers. The healthcare and educational sectors are also prominent in the Dallas economy. The $800‐million William P. Clements Jr. University Hospital on the UT Southwestern Medical Center campus opened in December 2014, while the new, $1.27‐billion Parkland hospital opened in August 2015. In October 2018, a $76‐million expansion was announced for Klyde Warren Park; the project will include a 20,000‐square‐ foot pavilion between St. Paul and Akard Streets that will house a sprawling visitor center and event space. Downtown New Supply Source: HVS Irving/Las Colinas/Coppell Situated strategically in the middle of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, the Irving/Las Colinas area remains one of the Metroplex's most desirable employment corridors; the market is replete with Class‐A office parks. In 2017, McKesson opened a $157‐million corporate campus in Las Colinas and, in late 2018, announced that it plans to relocate its headquarters from San Francisco to Irving in April 2019. Also in 2018, Pei Wei Restaurants opened a new corporate headquarters in Irving. Irving and Las Colinas continue to grow with multiple large‐scale developments. Within the Las Colinas Urban Center, major developments over the past several years have included the opening of the Irving Convention Center in January 2011 and the Toyota Music Factory in 2018. Furthermore, the 350‐room Westin Irving Convention Center Las Colinas is scheduled to open in February 2019. Other developments in the Urban Center include Water Street, a 60,000‐square‐foot restaurant and retail development that also features 300 luxury residential units that opened in 2018, and North Shore, a planned development that is expected to include over 1,000 residential units and 60,000 square feet of retail space. Numerous other commercial and residential developments are planned throughout Irving and Las Colinas, with key projects including the redevelopment of the former Cowboys Stadium site, the Jefferson Promenade at Las Colinas, and the 65‐acre The Terraces at Las Colinas. Moreover, the Hidden Ridge mixed‐use development is anticipated to feature 2.7 million square feet of office space, inclusive of the new corporate campus for Pioneer Natural Resources; a 200‐room, full‐service hotel; 1,200 residential units; and 80,000 square feet of restaurant and retail space, with two acres of parks and green space incorporated throughout the development. The economic base of the North Irving/Coppell market is balanced by the presence of the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport and a concentration of corporate office and campuses. Aviation‐related industries are prevalent in this area, and the northern airport area is also home to regional operations headquarters for international corporations. CAE has the largest corporate aviation‐training center at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. DFW Freeport Business Park is home to major multinational corporations, including Nissan Motor Company, American Honda Motor Company, Allstate Insurance, and Federal Home Loan Bank. Located within Foreign Trade Zone 39, this 550‐acre international business park is strategically situated between two major highways, with Interstate 635 to the north and State Highway 114 to the south. To the north, the Interstate 635 industrial and commercial corridor ﴾between State Highway 121 to the west and the President George Bush Turnpike to the east﴿ is home to corporations such as Brink's U.S., Samsung, Envoy Air Headquarters, and AAA Texas Headquarters. Growth of this corridor is now largely paced by the ongoing development of Cypress Waters, a 1,000‐acre master‐planned development in the northeast quadrant of Belt Line Road and Interstate 635 that began in 2013. Irving, Las Colinas, Coppell New Supply Source: HVS North Dallas/Addison/East Plano/Richardson Addison features a unique combination of office towers, upscale shopping, urban residential communities, and nearly 200 restaurants, all within a five‐minute drive from anywhere in town. Addison is home to both small start‐ups and major corporate headquarters, including Mary Kay Inc., one of the largest direct sellers of skin care and cosmetics. Despite some displacement to the northern suburban submarkets, Addison continues to attract new tenants, and office construction is evident. In 2016, the 200,000‐square‐foot Tollway Center opened; it houses Maxim Integrated Inc. and Stream Energy. Mid‐year 2017, Cawley Partners broke ground on a 240,000‐ square‐foot office building; the six‐story tower is the first phase of a two‐building project called FOURTEEN555.