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Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook 2019.Q1 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS & OUTLOOK 2019.Q1 National Association of REALTORS® Research Group COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS & OUTLOOK 2019.Q1 NAR RESEARCH GROUP Lead Team LAWRENCE YUN, PhD Chief Economist & Senior Vice President for Research GAY CORORATON Research Economist MEREDITH DUNN Research Communications Manager ©2019 National Association of REALTORS® All Rights Reserved. May not be reprinted in whole or in part without permission of the National Association of REALTORS®. For reprint information, contact [email protected]. Download report at: https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-survey 2019. Q1 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS & OUTLOOK CONTENTS 1 | Economic Overview………………………………………………………………………………… 4 2 | Commercial Sales Transactions………..…………………………………………………….. 7 3 | Commercial Lease Transactions……………………………………………………………… 10 4 | Outlook…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 12 Multifamily……………………………………………………………………………………………. 13 Retail……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 14 Industrial………………………………………………………………………………………………. 15 Office…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 16 5 | About the Survey……………………….……………………………………………………….. 18 Economic Growth Real GDP Percent Change The economy expanded at a stronger pace of 4.0 3.2 percent in 2019 Q1 from 2.9 percent in 3.2 2018. The stronger growth was underpinned by 3.0 private investment (5.1%) arising from the 2.0 buildup in inventory. Commercial real estate 1.0 investment (non-residential fixed investment using U.S. Census Bureau’s terminology) rose 0.0 (2.7%) while residential fixed investment -1.0 contracted (-2.8%). Private consumption rose at -2.0 a subdued pace (1.2%) as the pace of spending for food, fuels, and durable items moderated. -3.0 Amid the higher tariffs imposed by the U.S. and 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 China, U.S. exports nonetheless increased 2019Q1 Source: BEA (3.7%) due to higher minerals/fuels, chemicals, food, machinery, and transport equipment exports while imports decreased (-3.7%), mainly Consumer Spending Percent Change from lower imports of minerals/fuel oil and 4.0 manufactured items. Government spending picked up (2.4%) on account of the increase in 3.0 state and local spending. A growing economy 2.0 supports the demand for commercial real estate. 1.0 1.2 Exports & Imports Percent Change Exports Imports 0.0 15.0 10.0 -1.0 3.7 5.0 -2.0 0.0 -5.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -10.0 -3.7 2019-Q1 -15.0 Private Investment Percent Change 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Government Spending Percent Change 2019-Q1 Non-residental investment Residential Investment Federal State and Local 20.0 8.0 10.0 6.0 3.9 2.7 4.0 0.0 2.0 -10.0 -2.8 0.0 -20.0 -2.0 0.0 -4.0 -30.0 -6.0 -8.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-Q1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1/2019 4 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | RESEARCH GROUP | www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics In April 2019, the number of authorized housing units decreased to a seasonally adjusted Housing Units Authorized ('000) annual level of 1.27 million (1.36 M one year 1-Family Multi-family Total ago) as 1-family housing permits declined 2500 (782,000 in April 2019; 863,000 one year ago) while multi-family housing permits increased 2000 1296 (514,000 in April 2019; 501,000 one year ago). 1500 1000 Employment 500 Job growth remains strong. The unemployment 0 rate fell to 3.6 percent in April 2019, the lowest since 1953. During the 12-month period of May Jul/2006 Jan/2000 Jan/2013 Jun/2005 Jun/2018 Oct/2009 Apr/2003 Apr/2016 Feb/2001 Sep/2008 Feb/2014 Dec/2011 Aug/2007 Nov/2010 Mar/2002 Mar/2015 2018‒April 2019, the economy created 2.6 May/2004 May/2017 million payroll jobs, exceeding the 2.3 million Source: BEA, SAAR, Bil.Chn.2009$ jobs that were added in the 12-month period one year ago. Since October 2010 and through Unemployment Rate (%) April 2019, payroll employment has increased Net 12-Month Job Change ('000) by 20.7 million, which more than offsets the 9.1 12 4000 million jobs lost during 2007 – 2010. 10 2000 Payroll employment increased in all sectors, 8 0 except for retail trade, information services, and 6 -2000 utilities. 4 -4000 The states that had the strongest change in 2 3.6 -6000 payroll employment in April 2019 from one year 0 -8000 ago were Nevada (3.8%), Utah (3.2%),Arizona (2.8%), Washington (2.7%), Texas (2.5%), 2007-Jul 2010-Jul 2013-Jul 2016-Jul 2006-Jan 2009-Jan 2012-Jan 2015-Jan 2018-Jan South Dakota (2.4%), and Florida (2.4%). 2006-Oct 2009-Oct 2012-Oct 2015-Oct 2018-Oct 2008-Apr 2011-Apr 2014-Apr 2017-Apr Source: BLS Payroll Employment: 12-Month Change ('000) Educ./Health 591 Prof./Bus. Services 534 Leisure/Hospitality 454 Construction 256 Manufacturing 205 Transportation/Warehousing 164 Government 128 Wholesale Trade 110 Financial and Real Estate Activities 109 Mining/Logging 29 Utilities -6 Information -16 Retail Trade -56 Source: BLS 5 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | RESEARCH GROUP | www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics As of the end of April 2019, there were more job Unemployed ('000) Job Openings('000) openings than job seekers, with 7.5 million job openings compared to 5.8 million unemployed. 18000 16000 Earnings, Inflation, and Interest Rates 14000 12000 10000 With sustained growth and low unemployment 8000 rate, wages continued to increase in real terms. 7488 6000 5824 The average hourly earnings rose 3.2 in April 4000 2019 from one year ago while prices rose 1.9 2000 percent. 0 Given the Federal Operations Market Jul/2008 Jan/2002 Jan/2015 Jun/2007 Oct/2011 Apr/2005 Apr/2018 Feb/2003 Sep/2010 Feb/2016 Dec/2000 Dec/2013 Aug/2009 Nov/2012 Mar/2004 Mar/2017 Committee (FOMC) monetary policy stance to May/2006 be patient in raising the federal funds rate (after four rate increases in 2018, to 2.25 to 2.5 percent by December 2018), the 30-year fixed Inflation Average Hourly Earnings 6.0 mortgage rate has trended down to a monthly 5.0 average of 4.1 percent in April 2019 from nearly 4.0 five percent in November 2018. 3.0 3.2 Since February 2019, the 5-year Treasury Note 2.0 1.9 yield has trended slightly below the 1-year 1.0 Treasury Note yield (a yield inversion, which 0.0 analysts and economists usually associate with -1.0 an upcoming recession). As of April 2019. the -2.0 1-year note yield was 2.4 percent, while the 5- -3.0 year note yield was 2.3 percent. However, most economic data point to a strong economy and Jul/2008 Jul/2010 Jul/2012 Jul/2014 Jul/2016 Jul/2018 Nov/2007 Nov/2009 Nov/2011 Nov/2013 Nov/2015 Nov/2017 Mar/2007 Mar/2009 Mar/2011 Mar/2013 Mar/2015 Mar/2017 Mar/2019 the FOMC has adopted a patient stance to Source: BLS fulfill the Federal Reserve Board’s mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. 1-Year Treasury Bill Yield at Constant Maturity (% p.a.) 5-Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant Maturity (% p.a.) 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Jan/2000 Jan/2001 Jan/2002 Jan/2003 Jan/2004 Jan/2005 Jan/2006 Jan/2007 Jan/2008 Jan/2009 Jan/2010 Jan/2011 Jan/2012 Jan/2013 Jan/2014 Jan/2015 Jan/2016 Jan/2017 Jan/2018 Jan/2019 6 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | RESEARCH GROUP | www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics Commercial Sales Transactions Sales Volume (YoY % Chg) Despite the strong economic fundamentals in Real Capital Analytics CRE Markets 2018 and 2019 Q1, the dollar volume of REALTOR® CRE Markets commercial sales transactions declined in both 70% large ($2.5 M+) and small (less than $2.5 M) 60% markets in 2019 Q1 from one year ago. In the 50% small market, REALTORS® and affiliates who 40% responded to NAR’s 2019 Q1 Quarterly Market 30% 20% Survey reported on average an eight percent 10% decline in sales volume. In the large market, 0% Real Capital Analytics reported that commercial -10% -8% sales volume decreased by 11 percent to $106.3 -20% -11% billion in 2019 Q1. The weakness in 2019 Q1 -30% volume of sales transactions comes on the heels of a rebound in 2018 to $575.2 billion after sales tapered in 2016 and 2017. 2012.Q1 2012.Q3 2013.Q1 2013.Q3 2014.Q1 2014.Q3 2015.Q1 2015.Q3 2016.Q1 2016.Q3 2017.Q1 2017.Q3 2018.Q1 2018.Q3 2019.Q1 Sources: National Association of REALTORS®, Real Capital Analytics Commercial Sales Volume ( Billion Dollars, $2.5M + Market) Commercial sales transactions at the higher 700.0 end—$2.5 million and above—comprise a 575.21 600.0 large share of investment sales. Billions 500.0 Most REALTORS®’ are active in serving 400.0 smaller markets with sale transactions of less 300.0 than $2.5 million; in the 2019 Q1 survey, the average sales transaction was $1.2 million. 200.0 These smaller properties ( e.g. neighborhood 100.0 shopping centers, warehouses, small offices, - supermarkets, etc.) make possible the conduct of daily economic activity and 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 comprise a larger fraction of total commercial buildings (according the Energy Information Source: Real Capital Analytics Administration 2012 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey, properties 10,000 square feet or less in size make up 72 percent of all commercial buildings).
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