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Transnational Organised Crime in the Covid-19 Pandemic Maria Dellasega and Judith Vorrath

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Transnational Organised Crime in the Covid-19 Pandemic Maria Dellasega and Judith Vorrath NO. 66 DECEMBER 2020 Introduction A Gangster’s Paradise? Transnational Organised Crime in the Covid-19 Pandemic Maria Dellasega and Judith Vorrath Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, certain illegal business practices, such as the trade in counterfeit medical products, have been experiencing a boom. Other typical sources of income for organised crime (OC) temporarily dried up due to lock- downs, travel restrictions and border closures. With the changing infection dynamics and increasingly localised countermeasures, the situation has demanded constant adaptation from many businesses – and criminal organisations are no exception. The effects of the pandemic on OC are not only short-lived, however: the economic, social and political consequences can also impact OC in the medium term. In addition to shifts in illegal (drug) markets, the potential for criminal exploitation could increase as a result of the health crisis and the influence of criminal groups on the state and society could grow. Some of these developments are already visible. The associated risks require increased scrutiny by political decision-makers and law enforcement agencies and more targeted international cooperation. After the first wave of coronavirus, it did disbursement of aid payments and the not take long for the media to report an strong increase in digital transactions. A increase in illicit business practices. It was large proportion of the criminal offences primarily the trade in counterfeit masks, directly linked to the pandemic fell into the disinfectants or test kits and the fraudulent category of fraud, including online credit sale of alleged treatments or vaccines for card fraud and the forging of websites to Covid-19 that made the headlines. But the divert donations away from real charities. impact of the pandemic went far beyond There was also an increase in online drugs that. trafficking and distribution of child sexual abuse material. However, the health crisis also presented Crime During the First Lockdown OC with challenges: travel restrictions, border closures and lockdowns interrupted It is hardly surprising that, as soon as the illegal supply chains and transport routes. pandemic hit, criminal actors immediately In Mexico, the production of fentanyl and tried to profit from the shortage of medical methamphetamine apparently declined goods, the rapid and often unbureaucratic because chemical precursors could not be imported from China to the same extent Covid-19. However, the pandemic offered as before. In addition, the smuggling of new opportunities for criminal actors, espe- cocaine to Europe and the United States cially due to the sharp rise in demand for was hampered at various stages of the sup- certain medical goods. ply chain. It has also been more difficult Yet, the consequences of Covid-19 for for networks and gangs to deliver drugs to the legal economy affect illegal business users, forcing them to make greater use of and trade flows in other ways as well: the postal service or couriers disguised as Criminal actors can, for example, benefit “essential workers” during lockdowns. In from supply shortages in legal markets, some places, the restrictions imposed on which have occurred due to temporary mobility were temporarily accompanied restrictions on the production of certain by a significant decline in offences such as goods during lockdown. These criminals are pickpocketing and burglary carried out by in a position to meet part of the demand, organised criminal groups. Certain criminal largely through counterfeit products. This sources of income, such as human smug- applies not only to pharmaceutical products gling, dried up almost entirely in places; and medical supplies, but to all kinds of subsequently stranding many migrants consumer goods and durables. This busi- along the smuggling routes. ness could also flourish if consumers who However, these developments primarily have lost income as a consequence of the resulted from the restrictive measures taken pandemic increasingly resort to cheaper at the beginning of the pandemic. How counterfeits and smuggled products, such Covid-19 will affect organised crime in the as cigarettes. This situation certainly creates medium term depends, among other things, risks for the end users, who are not neces- on how the infection rates and related sarily aware of the origin of the goods due restrictions continue to develop. That said, to the interconnectedness of legal and far-reaching economic, social and political illegal markets. consequences are already becoming appar- A second field that promises more profits ent. Even if OC phenomena differ signifi- beyond the short term are criminal activ- cantly across regions and countries, related ities in the virtual space. On the one hand, criminal activities are often not only trans- it can be assumed that even when the pan- national, but interconnected across differ- demic subsides, the increase in legal and ent continents. Moreover, illegal and legal illegal services provided online will con- markets are often intertwined in many tinue. On the other hand, advancing digita- ways. Consequently, the ongoing pandemic lisation is generally increasing the potential will inevitably have an impact on cross- for cybercrime, such as online fraud, phish- border OC that goes beyond the short-term ing or attacks with ransomware. For crimi- shifts mentioned above. The four develop- nal networks, this development opens up ments described below pose particular various sources of profit. Because of the risks. lower barriers to access the online market, this potential profit can also be tapped into by new players who do not necessarily fall New Opportunities for Profit into the organised crime category. The situa- tion in the international drug trade is rather Criminal networks usually respond quickly different. First and foremost, due to the fact to new profit opportunities. The trade in that the substances being traded are pro- falsified and substandard medicines and hibited – with a few local or national excep- medical products has long been a profitable tions in the case of cannabis (products) – business (see SWP Comment 25/2019) and the drug trade takes place almost entirely in the nature of related criminal activities as the illegal sphere. well as the modus operandi were not neces- sarily any different after the outbreak of SWP Comment 66 December 2020 2 Shifts in the International the increased demand for cannabis prod- Drug Trade ucts in Europe during the first lockdown was met more easily because of the much The impact of the pandemic on the drug shorter supply chains. trade is particularly relevant for two Prices could “normalise” quickly if the reasons. First, the drug business remains pandemic were to be effectively contained the most lucrative source of income for OC in Europe and North America. However, worldwide. The retail value in the European interregional drug trafficking will remain Union (EU) alone is estimated at 30 billion hampered, at the very least, for the foresee- euros annually. Second, due to shifts of able future, partly because of reduced inter- power at different stages along the supply national air traffic and tighter controls at chain, there is a risk of longstanding ar- some key borders. According to the Inter- rangements between criminal actors un- national Civil Aviation Organization, 186 ravelling – with possible negative con- airports worldwide were still completely or sequences such as an increase in violence. partially closed by the end of October 2020. International reports, from Europol The established criminal organisations are for instance, regularly point out that OC being very creative when it comes to re- groups – particularly those engaged in sponding to the restrictions on smuggling. the international drug trade – are exploit- For example, it has been reported ing the increase in global trade flows and that drones have increasingly been used to mobility. But what happens if these general transport drugs across the closed U.S.-Mexi- conditions start to falter? can border. As well as using more elaborate The markets for cocaine and heroin in technologies, criminal organisations some- particular are susceptible to disruptions times had to take higher risks because of in interregional transport routes. Although the pandemic conditions, for example by the transactions of the sale can be completed smuggling opiates overland in Central Asia. via the Internet, including the darknet, This is one of the reasons why heroin traf- physical smuggling must first take place fickers currently seem to be increasing the over long distances – in the case of cocaine, transport of drugs to Europe by sea along mainly from the Andean region, and in the the southern route across the Indian Ocean. case of heroin, mainly from Asia, especially Changes can also be observed along the Afghanistan and Myanmar, but also from maritime routes of cocaine trafficking to Mexico and other Latin American countries. Europe. Numerous drugs seizures in Euro- From there, the substances need to be traf- pean ports during the summer suggest ficked to the main destination markets, pri- that these continue to be important entry marily Europe and North America. Appar- points. However, the volumes confiscated ently, the pandemic has had little impact could also indicate that larger quantities on the harvest in the areas where plants of cocaine are being transported in in- are traditionally grown to produce drugs; dividual shipments. Most notably, the in fact, it is generally expected that the newly imposed or extended measures economic crisis will lead to an expansion for fighting the pandemic are likely to im- of cultivation. Nevertheless, the United pede the further distribution of cocaine Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) over land. has observed rising prices in Europe and Such developments could also affect the a decline in the quality of drugs such as consumption in key markets such as Europe cocaine. It seems that supply shortages have or the USA. With rising prices, consumers forced some users to switch to prescription might increasingly use synthetic opiates, drugs.
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