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Emerging Global Epidemiology of Measles and Public Health Response to Confirmed Case in Rhode Island
PUBLIC HEALTH Emerging Global Epidemiology of Measles and Public Health Response to Confirmed Case in Rhode Island ANANDA SANKAR BANDYOPADHYAY, MBBS, MPH; UTPALA BANDY, MD ABSTRACT Organization (WHO) geographical Region of the Americas Measles is a highly contagious viral disease and rapid achieved measles elimination by interrupting transmission identification and control of cases/outbreaks are import- of the endemic strain of measles virus.3 However, importa- ant global health priorities. Measles was declared elimi- tions from endemic countries continued throughout the last nated from the United States in March 2000. However, decade and a median of 56 cases of measles were reported in importations from endemic countries continued through the United States during the 2001-2008 period.4 A major re- out the last decade and in 2011, the United States report- surgence of measles occurred in the WHO European Region ed its highest number of cases in 15 years. With a global in 2011, with more than 13,000 laboratory-confirmed cases, snapshot of current measles epidemiology and the per- nearly three times higher than the total number of laborato- sistent risk of transnational spread based on population ry-confirmed cases reported in 2010.5 Ninety percent of the movement as the backdrop, this article describes the measles cases reported from the WHO European Region in rare event of a measles case identification in the state 2011 had not been vaccinated or had no documentation of of Rhode Island and the corresponding public health prior vaccination.6 Two-hundred and sixteen laboratory-con- response. As the global effort for measles elimination firmed cases were reported in the United States in 2011, the continues to make significant progress, sensitive public highest number of cases since 1996.7 Rhode Island reported health surveillance systems and strong routine immuni- its first case of measles since 1996 in April 2011. -
Measles: Chapter 7.1 Chapter 7: Measles Paul A
VPD Surveillance Manual 7 Measles: Chapter 7.1 Chapter 7: Measles Paul A. Gastanaduy, MD, MPH; Susan B. Redd; Nakia S. Clemmons, MPH; Adria D. Lee, MSPH; Carole J. Hickman, PhD; Paul A. Rota, PhD; Manisha Patel, MD, MS I. Disease Description Measles is an acute viral illness caused by a virus in the family paramyxovirus, genus Morbillivirus. Measles is characterized by a prodrome of fever (as high as 105°F) and malaise, cough, coryza, and conjunctivitis, followed by a maculopapular rash.1 The rash spreads from head to trunk to lower extremities. Measles is usually a mild or moderately severe illness. However, measles can result in complications such as pneumonia, encephalitis, and death. Approximately one case of encephalitis2 and two to three deaths may occur for every 1,000 reported measles cases.3 One rare long-term sequelae of measles virus infection is subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE), a fatal disease of the central nervous system that generally develops 7–10 years after infection. Among persons who contracted measles during the resurgence in the United States (U.S.) in 1989–1991, the risk of SSPE was estimated to be 7–11 cases/100,000 cases of measles.4 The risk of developing SSPE may be higher when measles occurs prior to the second year of life.4 The average incubation period for measles is 11–12 days,5 and the average interval between exposure and rash onset is 14 days, with a range of 7–21 days.1, 6 Persons with measles are usually considered infectious from four days before until four days after onset of rash with the rash onset being considered as day zero. -
Population Behavioural Dynamics Can Mediate the Persistence
medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.03.21256551; this version posted May 5, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . 1 1 Population behavioural dynamics can mediate the 2 persistence of emerging infectious diseases 1;∗ 1 1 2 3 Kathyrn R Fair , Vadim A Karatayev , Madhur Anand , Chris T Bauch 4 1 School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada, N1G 2W1 5 2 Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, N2L 6 3G1 7 *[email protected] 8 Abstract 9 The critical community size (CCS) is the minimum closed population size in which a 10 pathogen can persist indefinitely. Below this threshold, stochastic extinction eventu- 11 ally causes pathogen extinction. Here we use a simulation model to explore behaviour- 12 mediated persistence: a novel mechanism by which the population response to the pathogen 13 determines the CCS. We model severe coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and 14 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in a population where both individuals and gov- 15 ernment authorities restrict transmission more strongly when SARS-CoV-2 case numbers 16 are higher. This results in a coupled human-environment feedback between disease dy- 17 namics and population behaviour. In a parameter regime corresponding to a moderate 18 population response, this feedback allows SARS-CoV-2 to avoid extinction in the trough 19 of pandemic waves. -
Population Behavioural Dynamics Can Mediate the Persistence of Emerging Infectious Diseases
1 Supplementary information - Population behavioural dynamics can mediate the persistence of emerging infectious diseases Kathyrn R Fair1;∗, Vadim A Karatayev1, Madhur Anand1, Chris T Bauch2 1 School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada, N1G 2W1 2 Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, N2L 3G1 *[email protected] 2 Supplementary methods Within the model, individuals states are updated based on the following events: 1. Exposure: fS; ·} individuals are exposed to SARS-CoV-2 with probability λ(t), shifting to fE; ·}. 2. Onset of infectious period: fE; ·} individuals become pre-symptomatic and infectious with probability (1 − π)α, shifting to fP; ·}. Alternatively, they become asymptomatic and infectious (with probability πα), shifting to fA; ·}. 3. Onset of symptoms: fP; ·} individuals become symptomatic with probability σ, shifting to fI; ·}. 4. Testing: fI;Ug individuals are tested with probability τI shifting to fI;Kg. 5. Removal: fI; ·} and fA; ·} individuals cease to be infectious with probability ρ, shifting to fR; ·}. With probability m = 0:0066 [1], individuals transitioning from the symptomatic and infec- tious state (fI; ·}) to the removed (i.e. no longer infectious) state are assigned as COVID-19 deaths. Individuals who have died due to COVID-19 do not factor into subsequent birth and non-COVID-19 death calculations. At the onset of infectiousness, newly infected individuals have a probability s = 0:2 of being assigned as super-spreaders [2]. We differentiate between super-spreaders and non-super-spreaders using subscripts (s and ns respectively), such that we have Ps, Pns, As, Ans, Is, Ins. Super-spreaders have their probability of infecting others increased by a factor of (1 − s)=s. -
Module on Best Practices for Measles Surveillance
WHO/V&B/01.43 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH DISTR.: GENERAL Module on best practices for measles surveillance Written by Dalya Guris, MD, MPH National Immunization Program Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, USA DEPARTMENT OF VACCINES AND BIOLOGICALS World Health Organization Geneva 2001 The Department of Vaccines and Biologicals thanks the donors whose unspecified financial support has made the production of this document possible. This document was produced by the Vaccine Assessment and Monitoring team of the Department of Vaccines and Biologicals Ordering code: WHO/V&B/01.43 Printed: March 2002 This document is available on the Internet at: www.who.int/vaccines-documents/ Copies may be requested from: World Health Organization Department of Vaccines and Biologicals CH-1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland • Fax: + 41 22 791 4227 • Email: [email protected] • © World Health Organization 2001 This document is not a formal publication of the World Health Organization (WHO), and all rights are reserved by the Organization. The document may, however, be freely reviewed, abstracted, reproduced and translated, in part or in whole, but not for sale nor for use in conjunction with commercial purposes. The views expressed in documents by named authors are solely the responsibility of those authors. ii Contents Glossary ............................................................................................................................. v Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 -
Modeling Infectious Disease Dynamics in the Complex Landscape of Global Health Hans Heesterbeek Et Al
RESEARCH ◥ REVIEW SUMMARY linear systems in which infections evolve and spread and where key events can be governed by unpredictable pathogen biology or human EPIDEMIOLOGY behavior. In this Review, we start with an ex- amination of real-time outbreak response using the West African Ebola epidemic as an Modeling infectious disease dynamics example. Here, the challenges range from un- ◥ derreporting of cases and in the complex landscape of ON OUR WEB SITE deaths, and missing infor- Read the full article mation on the impact of at http://dx.doi. control measures to under- global health org/10.1126/ standing human responses. science.aaa4339 The possibility of future .................................................. Hans Heesterbeek,* Roy M. Anderson, Viggo Andreasen, Shweta Bansal, zoonoses tests our ability Daniela De Angelis, Chris Dye, Ken T. D. Eames, W. John Edmunds, to detect anomalous outbreaks and to esti- Simon D. W. Frost, Sebastian Funk, T. Deirdre Hollingsworth, Thomas House, mate human-to-human transmissibility against Valerie Isham, Petra Klepac, Justin Lessler, James O. Lloyd-Smith, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, a backdrop of ongoing zoonotic spillover while Denis Mollison, Lorenzo Pellis, Juliet R. C. Pulliam, Mick G. Roberts, also assessing the risk of more dangerous Cecile Viboud, Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration strains evolving. Increased understanding of the dynamics of infections in food webs and BACKGROUND: Despitemanynotablesuc- lenges for prevention and control. Faced with ecosystems where host and nonhost species cesses in prevention and control, infectious this complexity, mathematical models offer interact is key. Simultaneous multispecies diseases remain an enormous threat to human valuable tools for understanding epidemio- infections are increasingly recognized as a and animal health. -
Polio and Measles
POLIO AND MEASLES Appeal no. 05AA089 Appeal target: CHF 3,502,6741 The International Federation's mission is to improve the lives of vulnerable people by mobilizing the power of humanity. The Federation is the world's largest humanitarian organization, and its millions of volunteers are active in over 180 countries. All international assistance to support vulnerable communities seeks to adhere to the Code of Conduct and the Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response, according to the SPHERE Project. For further information please contact the Federation Secretariat, Health and Care Department: • Jean Roy, Senior Public Health Advisor, Health & Care; phone: +41 22 730 4419; email: [email protected] • Bernard Moriniere; MD, MPH, Sr. Medical Epidemiologist; phone +41.22.730.4222; email: [email protected] For information on programmes in other countries and regions please access the Federation website at http://www.ifrc.org Click on figures below to go to the detailed budget Programme title 2005 Health and care 3,502,674 Total 3,502,674 Regional Context This appeal aims to support increased participation of national societies in community mobilization for immunization services, and a gradual transition from accelerated disease control initiatives in selected countries (measles mortality reduction and polio eradication) towards supporting sustainable routine immunization programmes, through the participation of national societies and the Federation as partners in the work of the Global Alliance on Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI). According to the World Health Organization African Regional Office (WHO-AFRO), approximately 370,000 children died of measles in 2002, and measles remains the primary cause of vaccine-preventable deaths among children under 5 years of age in Africa. -
Measles and Rubella Surveillance Manual Report
Republic of Iraq Ministry of Health Measles & Rubella Surveillance Field Manual For Communicable Diseases Surveillance Staff WHO-MOH IRAQ 2009 1 Measles & Rubella Surveillance Field Manual Acknowledgment It is a great honor for WHO and the Iraqi MoH to present the measles elimination field guide. The guide deals with measles as a matter of public health importance and maps out set goals and strategies for outbreak response and prevention and control. It also highlights the use of MCV (measles-containing vaccine) to mitigate the risks of a large-scale outbreak. The WHO guidance on measles outbreak response published in 1999 emphasized that most outbreaks were either detected too late or had spread too rapidly to allow for an effective immunization response. This guide reviews the validity of this recommendation along with recent evidence concerning the impact of early outbreak response and the positive impact of rapid intervention and nationwide MCV campaigns in averting large-scale outbreaks. The monitoring of routine MCV coverage accompanied by a well established case-based surveillance system for all fever & rash cases and prompt laboratory investigations for suspected cases will be sensitive enough to detect early outbreaks and to coordinate early outbreak response. We acknowledge that although routine immunization plays an integral part in building herd immunity, with the current low measles vaccine coverage, we will continue to face infrequent outbreaks due to accumulation of susceptible. Nonetheless, concurrent follow up nationwide campaigns every 34- years and the RED (reaching every district) strategy will help to booster the immunity level and minimize the risk of a ‘wild’ measles virus circualtion. -
Extinction Thresholds in Host–Parasite Dynamics
Ann. Zool. Fennici 40: 115–130 ISSN 0003-455X Helsinki 30 April 2003 © Finnish Zoological and Botanical Publishing Board 2003 Extinction thresholds in host–parasite dynamics Anne Deredec & Franck Courchamp* Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Université Paris-Sud XI, Bâtiment 362, F-91405 Orsay Cedex, France (*e-mail: [email protected]) Received 13 Jan. 2003, revised version received 5 Feb. 2003, accepted 22 Feb. 2003 Deredec, A. & Courchamp, F. 2003: Extinction thresholds in host–parasite dynamics. — Ann. Zool. Fennici 40: 115–130. In this paper, we review the main thresholds that can infl uence the population dynamics of host–parasite relationships. We start by considering the thresholds that have infl u- enced the conceptualisation of theoretical epidemiology. The most common threshold involving parasites is the host population invasion threshold, but persistence and infec- tion thresholds are also important. We recap how the existence of the invasion thresh- old is linked to the nature of the transmission term in theoretical studies. We examine some of the main thresholds that can affect host population dynamics including the Allee effect and then relate these to parasite thresholds, as a way to assess the dynamic consequences of the interplay between host and parasite thresholds on the fi nal out- come of the system. We propose that overlooking the existence of parasite and host thresholds can have important detrimental consequences in major domains of applied ecology, including in epidemiology, conservation biology and biological control. Introduction the infection would not spread and would dis- appear, and the few infected hosts would die, The interplay between parasite species and their leaving a remaining healthy and uninfected host hosts constitutes a biological process that is both population. -
WHO African Regional Measles and Rubella Surveillance Guidelines
AFRICAN REGIONAL GUIDELINES FOR MEASLES AND RUBELLA SURVEILLANCE WHO Regional Office for Africa Revised April 2015 African Regional guidelines for measles and rubella surveillance- Draft version April 2015. 1 Contents ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................................. 4 I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 5 II. MEASLES DISEASE ........................................................................................................................... 5 i. Epidemiology of measles ............................................................................................................ 5 ii. Clinical features of measles ........................................................................................................ 6 iii. Complications of Measles ........................................................................................................... 7 iv. Measles Immunity ....................................................................................................................... 8 III. RUBELLA DISEASE ........................................................................................................................ 9 i. Epidemiology and clinical features: ............................................................................................ 9 ii. Congenital Rubella Syndrome .................................................................................................... -
Should We Expect Population Thresholds for Wildlife Disease?
ARTICLE IN PRESS TREE 519 Review TRENDS in Ecology and Evolution Vol.xx No.xx Monthxxxx Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease? James O. Lloyd-Smith1,2, Paul C. Cross1,3, Cheryl J. Briggs4, Matt Daugherty4, Wayne M. Getz1,5, John Latto4, Maria S. Sanchez1, Adam B. Smith6 and Andrea Swei4 1Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720-3114, USA 2Biophysics Graduate Group, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720-3200, USA 3Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, United States Geological Survey, 229 A.J.M. Johnson Hall, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA 4Department of Integrative Biology, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720-3140, USA 5Mammal Research Institute, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, 0002 South Africa 6Energy and Resources Group, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Host population thresholds for the invasion or persist- expected, demographic stochasticity makes them difficult ence of infectious disease are core concepts of disease to measure under field conditions. We discuss how con- ecology and underlie disease control policies based on ventional theories underlying population thresholds culling and vaccination. However, empirical evidence for neglect many factors relevant to natural populations these thresholds in wildlife populations has been such as seasonal births or compensatory reproduction, sparse, although recent studies have begun to address raising doubts about the general applicability of standard this gap. Here, we review the theoretical bases and threshold concepts in wildlife disease systems. These empirical evidence for disease thresholds in wildlife. We findings call into question the wisdom of centering control see that, by their nature, these thresholds are rarely policies on threshold targets and open important avenues abrupt and always difficult to measure, and important for future research. -
Eliminating Measles and Rubella
Eliminating measles and rubella Framework for the verification process in the WHO European Region Eliminating measles and rubella Framework for the verification process in the WHO European Region 2014 ABSTRACT This document describes the steps to be taken to document and verify that elimination of measles and rubella has been achieved in the WHO European Region. The process has been informed by mechanisms put in place for the certification of the global eradication of smallpox and poliomyelitis. Detailed information about measles and rubella epidemiology, virologic surveillance supported by molecular epidemiology, analyses of vaccinated population cohorts, quality surveillance and the sustainability of the national immunization programme comprise the key components of a standardized assessment to verify the interruption of endemic measles and rubella virus transmission in a country. The different parts of the assessment are interrelated; the verification of one component depends on the status of the others. It is necessary to integrate and link the evidence on the components and to verify their validity, completeness, representativeness and consistency among the different sources of information. National verification committees for measles and rubella elimination should be created in all Member States to compile and submit the data annually. Review and evaluation of annual national reports will continue in each Member State for at least three years after the Regional Verification Commission for Measles and Rubella Elimination confirms