J. Himalayan Ecol. Sustain. Dev. Vol.8 (2013) ISSN 0973-7502 RECENT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN KASHMIR VALLEY (INDIA) Sumira Nazir Zaz and Shakil Ahmad Romshoo Deptt. of Earth sciences, University of Kashmir, Hazratbal, Srinagar, 190006 Corresponding authors: Email: [email protected]; [email protected] ABSTRACT Climate change and global warming are widely recognized as the most significant environmental dilemma today. Studies have shown that Himalayan region as a whole has warmed by about 1.8°F since 1970‘s, which has alerted scientists to lead several studies on climate trend detection at different scales. This paper examines the recent variation in air temperature in Kashmir valley (India). Time series of near surface air temperature data for the period ranging from 1980 to 2010 of five weather observatories were collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (Pune) on which Mann-Kendall Rank Statistic and Regression tests were performed for examination of temperature trends and its significance. Both the tests showed significant increase in the mean Annual, mean Minimum as well as in mean Maximum temperature at a confidence level of 90% -99% at all the five stations. Seasonally very significant increase was recorded in Spring and Winter temperature (90-99%) at all stations. The analysis reveals that such increase in the temperature particularly in spring can occur due to decrease in winter snowfall and its early melting as less snow cover/depth melts within short period of time there by leaving more period of time for warming the surface of earth. Thus, such variation in temperature can lead to water scarcity throughout the valley. Key words: Nonparametric, parametric; mankendall test, linear regression test, western disturbances 2010). The high mountains of INTRODUCTION South Asia covering the Hindu- Kush, Karakoram Himalaya Prevalence of varied clima- (HKKH) belt have reported tic conditions that are similar to warming trend in the past few those of widely separated latitu- decades (Viviroli et al., 2007; dinal belt, within a limited area, Immerzeel et al., 2010).The make the high mountain areas Himalayas exhibit a stronger such as the Himalaya, the Alps, warming trend for every season the Andes, the Rockies etc. the (Immerzeel et al., 2010). Snow ideal sites for the study of cover is one of the important temperature change (Singh et al., climatic elements which interact 42 J. Himalayan Ecol. Sustain. Dev. Vol.8 (2013) ISSN 0973-7502 with the global atmosphere by paper attempts to understand the changing the energy regime as a temperature changes in the valley result of the large albedo and net of Kashmir that lies between the radiation loss (Namias, 1985; Himalayan range in the north and Sarthi et al., 2011). Several the Pir Panjal range in the south studies have also shown that for a period of three decades from decrease in snowfall days in 1980 to 2010. This region has western Himalayas is related to abundant water resources in the the occurrences of western dist- form of glaciers, snow and lakes urbance (Archer, 2004; Fowler that feed water to number of river and Archer, 2006; Dimiri et al., tributaries which finally drains in 2013; Hatwar et al., 2005; the river Jhelum. The Himalaya Wiltshire, 2013). Various work- exercises a dominant control over ers have suggested that decrease the meteorological and hydr- in snowfall has resulted in the ological conditions in the valley increase of temperature in of Kashmir. Even a minor change Himalayas (Kulkarni et al., 2002; in their climate has a potential to Negi 2005a; Fowler and Archer, cause disastrous consequences on 2006; Negi 2009b; Jeelani 2012; the socio-economic survival of Sarthi, et al., 2011, Kaab et al., millions of people (Archer, 2012). Concern on climate change 2004;Fowler and Archer, has brought several studies on 2006;Jeelani et al., 2012). Runoff temperature trend detection from the melting of winter snow (Brohan, 2006; Jones, 2003; and perennial ice makes a Landscheidt, 2000; Vinnikov and significant contribution to river Grody, 2003, Joeri et al., flow during the summer season 2011).Water resources are consi- that is vital for irrigation and dered vulnerable in the region due hydropower production in the to increasing temperature (Barnett region. et al., 2005). Due to increase in temperature seasonal storage of STUDY AREA water in snow and ice results early runoff (Immerzeel et al., The valley of Kashmir lies 2010; Kaser et al., 2010; Schaner between the Himalayan range in et al., 2012; Siderius et al., 2013). the north and the Pir Panjal range Considering this importance, this in the south, situated between 43 J. Himalayan Ecol. Sustain. Dev. Vol.8 (2013) ISSN 0973-7502 latitude 33°55' to 34°50' and dominated by midlatitude frontal longitude, 74° 30' to 75° 35' in disturbances. The region experi- India. The Kashmir valley is ences four distinct seasons: winter located at the elevation of (December to February), spring approximately 1500mts above the (March to May), summer (June to sea level. This region has very August), and autumn (September rugged topography and the to November). The average rain- highest elevation is around fall, as observed from the nearest 5600mts above the sea level. The meteorological station at Srinagar, location of the study area is is 650 mm, and average temp- shown in Fig. 1. On the Greater erature ranges from 2.5°C in Himalayan tracts, bordering the winter to 23.8°C in summer north-western part of Kashmir (Jeelani, 2012). valley are Ladakh, Baltistan and Gilgit (Raza et al., 1978). The total area is approximately more than 15,836 km2. The river Jhelum originates from the Verinag in the Pir Panjal ranges passes through the middle of the valley and has a length of 160kms in the Indian territory of Kashmir (Wadia, 1979). The river receives water from more than twenty four tributaries and some of them are fed by the glaciers important among them is the 'Kolahoi glacier' in lidder watershed that joins river Jhelum near Sangam station. River Jhelum drains alluvial lands in the Kashmir Valley that is known as the rice bowl of Kashmir. The weather in the Kashmir Himalaya has a marked seasonality in temperature and precipitation, which is 44 J. Himalayan Ecol. Sustain. Dev. Vol.8 (2013) ISSN 0973-7502 Fig. 1. Map of study area MATERIAL AND METHODS Temperature data was These tests were performed using procured from Indian Metrolo- the trend statistical software. gical center (IMD) Pune for five - stations of different elevations, RESULTS located at Pahalgam, Gulmarg, The results of mean Annual, Srinagar, Kokarnag and Kupwara. mean Maximum, mean Minimum The average minimum, Maxi- and Seasonal temperature data mum, Annual and Seasonal (Win- using parametric and nonpara- ter, spring, summer, autumn) te- metric test for the Gulmarg, mperature data was analyzed at all Pahalgam, Qazigund, Kokernag, stations. The magnitude of trend Kup-wara and Srinagar stations and statistical significance was for last 30 years from 1980-2010 carried out using Mann-kendall are shown as under. (non-parametric) and linear regression (parametric) tests. 45 J. Himalayan Ecol. Sustain. Dev. Vol.8 (2013) ISSN 0973-7502 Gulmarg station This station lies to the north of the valley at an elevation of 2949 mts at latitude of 33°50' and 74° 21' longitude. The average temperature at this station is 7.8 °C. From 1980-2010 the mean Annual and mean Minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend at a confidence level of 99% using Mann-Kendall and linear regression tests. (Table1 and Fig 2). Analysis of mean Maximum temperature at this station showed an increasing trend at confidence level of 90% using both the test. The temperature in Winter, Spring and Autumn season showed an increasing trend at confidence level of 95%. However, the Summer temperature showed insignificant increasing trend during these 30 years (Table 1 and Fig. 2). 46 J. Himalayan Ecol. Sustain. Dev. Vol.8 (2013) ISSN 0973-7502 Table 1. Annual and Seasonal temperature trends at Gulmarg station Temperature of Gulmarg station in°C Statistical tests Names Test a=0.1 Result statistic a=0.05 a=0.01 2.923 1.645 1.96 2.576 S (0.01) Annual average 1.564 1.645 1.96 2.576 S (0.1) Average maximum 3.059 1.645 1.96 2.576 S (0.01) Mankendall Average minimum 2.43 1.645 1.96 2.576 S (0.05) test Winter Season 2.006 1.645 1.96 2.576 S (0.05) Spring Season 0.986 1.645 1.96 2.576 NS Summer Season 2.159 1.645 1.96 2.576 S (0.05) Autumn Season 3.12 1.699 2.045 2.756 S (0.01) Linear regression Annual average test 1.942 1.699 2.045 2.756 S (0.1) Average maximum 3.79 1.699 2.045 2.756 S (0.01) Average minimum 2.259 1.699 2.045 2.756 S (0.05) Winter Season 2.224 1.699 2.045 2.756 S (0.05) Spring Season 0.829 1.699 2.045 2.756 NS Summer Season 2.32 1.699 2.045 2.756 S (0.05) Autumn Season NS= Non significant; S=Significant. S= Significance 0.01=99% , 0.05=95%, 0.1=90% 47 J. Himalayan Ecol. Sustain. Dev. Vol.8 (2013) ISSN 0973-7502 Fig. 2. Annual and seasonal temperature trends at Gulmarg station Srinagar station level of 90% using both This station located at the parametric and nonpara-metric latitude 34º 00´ and 75º 00´ tests (Fig. 3). The Maximum longitudes at the elevation of temperature showed significant 1500mts. The average tempe- increa-sing trend at confidence rature is 12°C.