(E.3.2-35) Ice Formation on Brownlee Reservoir and Potential Effects on Big Game Populations
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Ice Formation on Brownlee Reservoir and Potential Effects on Big Game Populations R. Ryel Ryel and Associates North Logan, UT N. Mesner Dept. of Geography & Earth Resources Utah State University S. Jensen White Horse Associates Smithfield, UT Technical Report Appendix E.3.2-35 December 2001 Revised July 2003 (Minor Typographical Changes) Hells Canyon Complex FERC No. 1971 Copyright © 2003 by Idaho Power Company Ice Formation on Brownlee Reservoir and Potential Effects on Big Game Populations Technical Report Appendix E.3.2-35 Final Draft December 2001 Prepared for: Idaho Power Company Boise, Idaho Prepared by: R. Ryel Ryel and Associates North Logan, Utah N. Mesner Department of Geography and Earth Resources Utah State University Logan, Utah S. Jensen White Horse Associates Smithfield, Utah Brownlee Reservoir Ice—Effects on Big Game Table of Contents Table of Contents...................................................................................................i List of Tables.........................................................................................................ii List of Figures........................................................................................................ii ABSTRACT.......................................................................................................... 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................... 2 1.1. Background .............................................................................................. 2 1.2. Justification............................................................................................... 2 1.3. Objectives................................................................................................. 3 2.0 METHODS .................................................................................................... 3 2.1. Study Area................................................................................................ 3 2.2. Big Game Surveys.................................................................................... 4 2.3. Reservoir Ice Model.................................................................................. 4 2.3.1. Basic Model Structure and Calibration ............................................... 5 2.3.2. Embayments ...................................................................................... 5 2.3.3. Modeling Ice....................................................................................... 6 2.3.4. Simulations ........................................................................................ 6 2.3.5. Sensitivity Analysis............................................................................. 8 2.3.6. Model Validation................................................................................. 8 2.3.7. Assessing timing of ice formation and thawing .................................. 8 3.0 RESULTS...................................................................................................... 9 3.1. Big Game Surveys.................................................................................... 9 3.1.1. Mule Deer .......................................................................................... 9 3.1.2. Elk.................................................................................................... 10 3.1.3. Bighorn Sheep ................................................................................. 10 3.2. Embayments........................................................................................... 10 3.3. Simulations ............................................................................................. 11 3.3.1. Embayments .................................................................................... 11 3.3.2. Comparison between Operational Scenarios.................................... 11 3.3.3. Effect of Rising and Falling Water Levels on Ice Formation............. 13 3.3.4. Ice Formation and Big Game Distribution ........................................ 13 3.4. Sensitivity Analyses................................................................................ 13 3.5. Model Validation ..................................................................................... 14 3.6. Periods of Ice Formation and Thawing ................................................... 15 4.0 DISCUSSION.............................................................................................. 16 4.1. Ice Formation.......................................................................................... 16 4.2. Effects on Big Game............................................................................... 18 5.0 Literature Cited............................................................................................ 21 i Brownlee Reservoir Ice—Effects on Big Game List of Tables Table 1. Variables in ice formation submodel of CE-QUAL-W2 assessed in sensitivity analysis. Middle values (bold) shown were used in simulations and are default values from CE- QUAL-W2, while low and high values were used in sensitivity analyses. ..........................................................................................25 Table 2. Result of k-means cluster analysis for embayments in Brownlee Reservoir. Embayment characteristics were measured at 15 water surface elevations separated by 3 m. Both cluster means and standard deviation of area and thalweg length are shown for members of each cluster....................25 Table 3. Results of sensitivity analysis of coefficients used in ice submodel of CE-QUAL-W2. Shown are maximum and minimum differences between simulation run with variable changed to low or high parameter values (Table 1) and original simulation run. Differences in days with ice formation are expressed as absolute differences in days. Differences in maximum ice thickness are expressed as percent differences. Simulation shown is for Brownlee Reservoir in January 1995 (medium flow year) for “cold” freeze cycle under proposed operations. Similar results were also found for the run-of-river scenario for the same period (results not shown).............................26 List of Figures Figure 1. Brownlee Reservoir on Snake River between Oregon and Idaho. ...............................................................................................27 Figure 2a. Lower Brownlee Reservoir showing model segments used in CE-QUAL-W2, embayments and wildlife survey units......................29 Figure 2b. Upper Brownlee Reservoir showing model segments used in CE-QUAL-W2, embayments and wildlife survey units......................31 Figure 3. (upper) Inflow from Snake River to Brownlee Reservoir during low (1992), medium (1995) and high (1997) flow years. Twenty-day simulation periods are shown as horizontal bars. (lower) Detail of flows during months used in simulations. Twenty-day simulation periods are shown as horizontal bars. .........33 Figure 4. Water surface elevations of Brownlee Reservoir for low flow, 1992 (upper), medium flow, 1995 (middle) and high flow, 1995 (lower) years for proposed operations and run-of-river operational scenarios. 20-day simulation periods are shown as horizontal bars..................................................................................34 Figure 5. Air temperatures used in “cold” (upper) and “warm” (lower) freeze period simulations..................................................................35 ii Brownlee Reservoir Ice—Effects on Big Game Figure 6. Sites on Brownlee Reservoir where water temperatures and ice formation were measured in January−March, 2001 for model validation. ‘Main’ refers to measurements made in main reservoir body, ‘Emb’ within embayments, and ‘PR’ within the Powder River arm.............................................................................37 Figure 7. Average densities of mule deer adjacent to Brownlee Reservoir measured during March of 1998, 2000 and 2001. Numbers of embayments within reservoir segments are also indicated...........................................................................................39 Figure 8. Average densities of elk adjacent to Brownlee Reservoir measured during March of 1998, 2000 and 2001. Numbers of embayments within reservoir segments are also indicated. .............41 Figure 9. Average densities of bighorn sheep adjacent to Brownlee Reservoir measured during March of 1998, 2000 and 2001. Numbers of embayments within reservoir segments are also indicated...........................................................................................43 Figure 10. Number and area of embayments in Brownlee Reservoir as a function of water surface elevation. ..................................................45 Figure 11. (upper) Simulated days of ice persisting in Brownlee Reservoir within embayments of four different sizes (see Table 2) during “cold” freeze period (see text). Horizontal labels indicate the main reservoir segments containing the embayment. Broad bars indicate the period in days when reservoir ice is < 10 cm thick, while the narrow black bars indicate the total days when ice is present. (lower) Simulated maximum ice thickness for the same simulations........................................................................46 Figure 12a. Simulated days of ice persisting in Brownlee Reservoir within embayments during “cold” freeze period (see text) for low flow year (1992) in December (upper), January (middle) and February (lower). Horizontal