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Australia's Agricultural Future: the Social and Political Context

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Australia's Agricultural Future: the Social and Political Context This report can be found at www.acola.org.au © Australian Council of Learned Academies Australia’s agricultural future: the social and political context Report to the Australian Council of Learned Academies Prof Stewart Lockie This report can be found at www.acola.org.au © Australian Council of Learned Academies This report can be found at www.acola.org.au © Australian Council of Learned Academies Citation: Lockie, S. (2015) Australia’s agricultural future: the social and political context. Report to SAF07 – Australia’s Agricultural Future Project, Australian Council of Learned Academies, Melbourne. Acknowledgements: Prof Lockie wishes to acknowledge the invaluable assistance of Dr Silva Larson in collecting background material for this report. Australia’s agricultural future: the social and political context ii This report can be found at www.acola.org.au © Australian Council of Learned Academies This report can be found at www.acola.org.au © Australian Council of Learned Academies Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. V 1. INTRODUCTION: THE FUTURE OF AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE ................................................ 1 1.1 TERMS OF REFERENCE ............................................................................................................... 2 1.2 KEY CONCEPTS AND APPROACH TO THIS REPORT ..................................................................... 3 2. BACKGROUND: 200+ YEARS OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY NARRATIVES ..................................... 5 3. CRISIS OR RENEWAL? THE CHANGING FACE OF AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE ......................... 11 3.1 CHANGING PRODUCTION PATTERNS IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE .................................... 11 3.2 CONCENTRATION WITHIN THE AUSTRALIAN FARM SECTOR ................................................... 12 3.3 TENURE REGIMES .................................................................................................................... 13 3.4 FOREIGN OWNERSHIP ............................................................................................................. 14 3.5 ABORIGINAL LAND AND ASPIRATIONS .................................................................................... 16 3.6 EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE ............................................................................................. 18 3.7 FARM AND RURAL POVERTY .................................................................................................... 20 3.8 HEALTH AND WELLBEING ON THE FARM ................................................................................. 21 4. SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE 23 4.1 THE POLITICS OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL LANDSCAPES ..................................................... 23 4.1.1 Domestic political support for agriculture ........................................................................ 23 4.1.2 Competing industries ........................................................................................................ 24 4.1.3 The multifaceted meanings of rural space ....................................................................... 25 4.2 THE POLITICS OF FOOD: CHANGING TASTES, FOOD SYSTEMS AND GOVERNANCE REGIMES . 26 4.2.1 Changing consumption patterns ...................................................................................... 26 4.2.2 Food affordability and public health ................................................................................ 27 4.2.3 Contesting agriculture and food trade ............................................................................. 30 4.2.4 Vertical coordination and transparency ........................................................................... 31 4.3 THE POLITICS OF GLOBAL RISK ................................................................................................. 34 4.3.1 Global environmental change ........................................................................................... 34 4.3.2 Trade politics in a shifting geopolitical landscape ............................................................ 36 5. ASSEMBLING THE FUTURE: RE-THINKING AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE? ................................ 39 5.1 INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE AGRICULTURAL FRONTIER ......................................................... 39 5.2 TRANSFORMATIVE TECHNOLOGY AND THE NEXT AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION(S) ............... 41 5.3 FARMS OF THE FUTURE: DIVERSITY AND FLEXIBILITY ............................................................. 43 5.4 WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OF AUSTRALIAN FARMERS? .............................................................. 45 5.5 FLEXIBLE, PARTICIPATORY AND ROBUST GOVERNANCE ......................................................... 47 6. CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................... 49 7. REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 51 Australia’s agricultural future: the social and political context iii This report can be found at www.acola.org.au © Australian Council of Learned Academies This report can be found at www.acola.org.au © Australian Council of Learned Academies Australia’s agricultural future: the social and political context iv This report can be found at www.acola.org.au © Australian Council of Learned Academies This report can be found at www.acola.org.au © Australian Council of Learned Academies EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Agriculture has long been central to narratives about Australian identity and prosperity; the wellbeing of farmers seen as crucial to the wellbeing of all. Paradoxically, agriculture has also long been subject fears of social and economic crises undermining the ability of farmers to maintain productivity growth and to care for rural environments and communities. As we face the challenges of the 21st Century we must ask what we expect of agriculture and how we will support Australian farmers to deliver on these expectations. This report examines: • Social and economic stressors in the Australian farm sector with the potential to undermine human capital and, in turn, agricultural productivity. • The politics of food and agriculture both within, and outside, the formal political sphere. This involves consideration of both national and global politics, on the one hand, and of the micro- politics of consumption and the vertical coordination of agricultural value chains, on the other. • Possible futures and the infrastructure, technology, farm business models and governance systems required to envision and realize positive futures. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC STRESSORS The agricultural and rural sectors face a number of inter-related social and economic stressors including depopulation of rural areas, declining participation in agricultural education, low levels of entry into farming as an occupation (particularly by young women), low incomes and poor rates of return for the majority of farm businesses, and comparatively poor health outcomes for farmers and other rural residents including mental health and suicide. As many as 75 per cent of Australian farm businesses do not generate sufficient returns to meet both personal needs and business growth. In considering the future of agriculture, this raises at least two questions. First, will social and economic stressors undermine the human capital base of Australian agriculture and, ultimately, its productivity and viability? Second, will these stressors undermine the social license of agriculture or the legitimacy of agricultural policy? In the short-term, farm businesses will predominantly be managed by older farmers while labour shortages are filled through casual employment, increasingly, of international labour migrants. Over the longer-term, it is plausible that Australia will become a net importer of management expertise and capital. A major variation on these trends is found in the rising share of the Australian landmass subject to various forms of collective Indigenous tenure. Much of this land is remote and of marginal agricultural value. However, there is considerable potential to manage Indigenous landholdings for cultural and environmental values while developing viable agricultural enterprises and supporting Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples’ aspirations to live on and care for customary lands. Agricultural business viability is essential but not sufficient to address the social issues identified in this report. Indeed strategies aimed at addressing business viability may amplify rather than ameliorate social issues. Transformative technologies that reduce labour demand, for example, may simultaneously reduce employment opportunities and deepen the isolation experienced by many working in agriculture. Increased retail prices are also not a solution. For a number of reasons, the farm-gate price of food and fibre is a small proportion of what consumers eventually pay. A sizable minority of Australians Australia’s agricultural future: the social and political context v This report can be found at www.acola.org.au © Australian Council of Learned Academies This report can be found at www.acola.org.au © Australian Council of Learned Academies struggle to afford a sufficient or balanced diet. Should food prices rise faster than incomes, or general economic conditions deteriorate, this number will grow. Alternatively, Australia could
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