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Country Report Poland 2019

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Country Report Poland 2019 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 27.2.2019 SWD(2019) 1020 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Country Report Poland 2019 Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE EUROGROUP 2019 European Semester: Assessment of progress on structural reforms, prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances, and results of in-depth reviews under Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 {COM(2019) 150 final} EN EN CONTENTS Executive summary 3 1. Economic situation and outlook 7 2. Progress with country-specific recommendations 15 3. Reform priorities 20 3.1. Public finances and taxation 20 3.2. Financial sector 24 3.3. Labour market, education and social policies 26 3.4. Competitiveness and investment 33 Annex A: Overview Table 45 Annex B: Commission Debt Sustainability Analysis and fiscal risks 49 Annex C: Standard Tables 50 Annex D: Investment Guidance on Cohesion Policy Funding 2021-2027 for Poland 56 References 61 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Key economic and financial indicators — Poland 14 Table 2.1: Assessment of implementation of 2018 country-specific recommendations 17 Table 3.2.1: Financial stability indicators of the Polish banking system 24 Table C.1: Financial market indicators 50 Table C.2: Headline Social Scoreboard indicators 51 Table C.3: Labour market and education indicators 52 Table C.4: Social inclusion and health indicators 53 Table C.5: Product market performance and policy indicators 54 Table C.6: Green growth 55 LIST OF GRAPHS Graph 1.1: Projected cumulative GDP growth in 2017-2018 7 Graph 1.2: Employment, wages and unemployment rate, 2013-2018 8 Graph 1.3: Non-Polish citizens paying social contributions in Poland, 2012-2018 9 1 Graph 1.4: Gini coefficient of equivalised disposable income, 2005-2017 10 Graph 1.5: Change in regional GDP per capita in PPS relative to the EU average (2006-2016), depending on the 2006 starting point 10 Graph 1.6: Unit value of capital goods exports 11 Graph 2.1: Overall multiannual implementation of 2011-2018 CSRs to date 15 Graph 3.1.1: Yearly change of tax-to-GDP ratios, 2016-2018 20 Graph 3.1.2: Pro-cyclicality of VAT revenue to private consumption ratio, 1995-2017 21 Graph 3.1.3: Medium-term public debt scenarios 23 Graph 3.2.1: Lending developments 24 Graph 3.3.1: Effects of retirement age changes on employment rate, 11Q1–18Q3 28 Graph 3.4.1: Private investment to GDP ratio 33 Graph 3.4.2: Air pollution in regions according to number of days with exceeded PM10 limits, 2017 38 Graph 3.4.3: Urbanisation rate and regional GDP in PPS per capita, 2016 40 LIST OF BOXES Box 2.1: EU funds and programmes contribute to addressing structural challenges and to fostering growth and competitiveness in Poland 18 Box 3.3.1: Monitoring performance in light of the European Pillar of Social Rights 27 Box 3.4.1: Investment challenges and reforms in Poland 44 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Poland is enjoying good economic times, ideal Skills, migrant workers and investment play a for addressing its main socio-economic major role for potential growth. For many years, challenges (1). Current economic conditions are the labour contribution to potential growth has favourable with continuing strong growth and remained small. With a projected decline in the improving public finances. Unemployment is at a working-age population, labour will present a drag record low and social inequalities are gradually on potential growth in the future. Given its already diminishing. However, in the long run Poland’s large share in the total work force, future migration economic prospects depend on the economy’s trends are expected to have a substantial impact on capacity to move away from a model based on low growth. Another key to boosting productivity and labour costs towards a knowledge-based economy growth is capital accumulation. Investment trends producing advanced products and services. In the will increasingly depend on various non-tangible meantime, the economic environment offers a factors like perceptions of macroeconomic stability unique opportunity to address structural issues, in and the quality of Poland's institutions, policies, particular related to ageing, a decreasing working- regulatory environment, and the rule of law. age population and low innovation levels. Poland is increasingly integrated into the global The Polish economy continued to enjoy strong economy. Poland’s current account is close to economic growth. Household consumption and balance and its net external debt narrowed during gradually increasing investment, in particular 2018. Exports remain highly diversified and public investment supported by EU funds, gradually shifting towards higher-value-added remained the main drivers of GDP growth products, partially driven by increasing integration estimated at 5.1 % in 2018. Private consumption into global production chains. was driven by the best-in-history labour market situation, high consumer confidence and increasing Increasing investments to support innovation, household borrowing. education and skills development, better infrastructure and cleaner energy are crucial Growth is expected to slow down but remain for Poland’s future growth. Investment remained solid. While a buoyant labour market and high low in recent years, leaving many opportunities consumer confidence are projected to further untapped. In this context, support to vital support private consumption, its growth is set to innovations and greater take up of innovations, slow from the rates observed in 2017-2018. This is together with investment in education and skills, due to higher inflation lowering real disposable has a crucial role in increasing the growth incomes. Mainly thanks to EU funds, public potential. Expanded and modernised transport, investment is projected to further increase, while communication and energy networks can also play the increase in private investment is set to become a crucial productivity-enhancing role. Investment more gradual. Both imports and exports are in childcare, long-term care and healthcare would projected to rise, although the increase in exports help mitigate labour shortages. Finally, greater may be affected by a weaker outlook for the global energy efficiency and more extensive use of economy and international trade. Overall, Poland’s renewables would allow Poland move towards GDP is expected to rise by 3.5 % in 2019 and cleaner energy and help limit air pollution. Annex 3.2 % in 2020. D identifies key priorities for support by the European Regional Development Fund, the European Social Fund Plus and the Cohesion Fund (1) This report assesses Poland’s economy in light of the over 2021-2027, building on the analysis of European Commission’s Annual Growth Survey published on 21 November 2018. In the survey, the Commission calls investment needs and challenges outlined in this on EU Member States to implement reforms to make the report. European economy more productive, resilient and inclusive. In so doing, Member States should focus their efforts on the three elements of the virtuous triangle of economic policy — delivering high-quality investment, focusing reforms efforts on productivity growth, inclusiveness and institutional quality and ensuring macroeconomic stability and sound public finance. 3 Executive summary Poland has made limited progress (2) in Key structural issues analysed in this report, which addressing the 2018 country-specific point to particular challenges for Poland’s recommendations. economy, are the following: There has been limited progress in: The public finances have improved. The fiscal deficit is estimated to have further increasing the efficiency of public spending; narrowed in 2018, supported by the robust economy and new measures to improve tax increasing labour market participation; collection. Public debt as a share of GDP further declined and is significantly below the strengthening the innovative capacity of the threshold of 60 % GDP. While no visible economy. improvement in the structural balance was observed in 2016 and 2017, some improvement There has been no progress in: is likely to have materialised in 2018. Maintaining the observed improvements in tax removing remaining obstacles to more collection is important if Poland is to finance permanent types of employment; its increased expenditure without negatively impacting public finances, also in the light of increasing the effective retirement age; the expected slowdown in economic growth. Limiting the administrative burden linked to reforming special pension arrangements; tax compliance is also of key importance. Further reforms of taxes are planned, including ensuring effective public and social clearer assignment of Value added tax rates to consultations in the legislative process. goods and services. Regarding progress in reaching the national Work to reform the budgetary process targets under the Europe 2020 strategy, Poland continues. Its fiscal rules are stable but Poland performs well in the following areas: poverty remains the only Member State without an reduction, tertiary education, reducing early independent fiscal council. At the same time, school leaving and the employment rate. the government continues work to address Progress is limited in R&D investment, energy shortcomings in the budgetary process, efficiency, renewable energy and greenhouse including better medium-term planning. The gas emissions. ultimate goal of the planned reform is to increase the efficiency and effectiveness
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