november/ december 2o11

Israel’s Bunker Mentality

How the Occupation Is Destroying the Nation

Ronald R. Krebs

Volume 9o • Number 6

The contents of Foreign Affairs are copyrighted.©2o11 Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this material is permitted only with the express written consent of Foreign Affairs. Visit www.foreignaffairs.org/permissions for more information. Israel’s Bunker Mentality

How the Occupation Is Destroying the Nation

Ronald R. Krebs

For the Israeli right and its allies around the political system, it has strengthened ultra- world, the greatest danger to Israel’s future Orthodox political parties, which have is the unwillingness of Palestinians to make exploited divisions between the right peace. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict does and the left to become kingmakers. In threaten Israel, but not, as the right would exchange for their parliamentary support, have it, because militant and even seemingly they have demanded economic subsidies moderate Palestinians harbor plans to drive for their constituents, who often devote the Jews into the sea. Rather, the conflict their lives to studying Jewish texts rather threatens Israel because of the havoc it than participating in the work force. wreaks on the country’s internal politics. Educated, largely secular elites, frustrated Since 1967, when Israel occupied the West by low pay and high taxes, have, until Bank and the Gaza Strip, its presence in recently, been emigrating in substantial those territories has played a central role numbers, and the long-term prospects for in structuring Israeli politics, transforming reversing this brain drain are poor as long a country once brimming with optimism as the occupation continues. These are the into an increasingly cynical, despondent, real threats to Israel’s founders’ vision of a and illiberal place. democratic, Jewish, and prosperous state. By inducing a bunker mentality among Yet all is not lost. A centrist governing Israelis, the occupation has bred an aggres- coalition could halt Israel’s slide toward il- sive ethnic nationalism that privileges the liberalism, oªer its Arab citizens hope for interests of Israel’s Jewish citizens over equality and justice, compel its burgeoning those of its Arab citizens, who have come ultra-Orthodox population to earn their to feel that they will never be treated fairly keep rather than live oª the state, and give in an Israel defined as a Jewish state. At Israel’s educated class a reason to stay. This the same time, by paralyzing the Israeli is what must happen for Israel to keep its

Ronald R. Krebs is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota. He is the author of Fighting for Rights: Military Service and the Politics of Citizenship and a co-editor of In War’s Wake: International Conflict and the Fate of Liberal Democracy.

[10] Israel’s Bunker Mentality successful economy humming and ensure fulfill divine command. Others foresaw that that its blemished but vibrant democracy Israel would not be able to permanently can thrive. But such a coalition will remain rule over so large a non-Jewish population a distant dream as long as the occupation without undermining either its Jewish continues to loom over Israeli politics. character or its democratic principles. Divided over territory and security, the BORDER OPENINGS Israeli public has repeatedly failed to provide In the years after its independence, Israel a clear mandate for the left or the right, became a rare success story in the postcolo- and the resulting coalition governments nial world. The country managed to absorb have often rested on slender and unstable hundreds of thousands of immigrants from parliamentary majorities. The basic fissures around the world, foster economic growth, stemming from this debate over the occu- and build a powerful military. To be sure, pation have allowed parties with narrow its democracy was flawed—a military agendas to hijack the system and extort administration governed its Arab citizens high prices for their support. Well-meaning until 1966, and Jews of North African and political reforms designed to force the Israeli Arab descent lagged behind their European public to directly address the core issue of counterparts—but it was also real. Israel’s future in the territories, such as by These achievements were made possible instituting the direct election of the prime in part by the fact that, until 1967, Israel’s minister, seemed promising at first, but borders appeared to be settled. The armis - these eªorts only further weakened the tice lines established in 1949 in a series of major political parties and contributed to bilateral agreements between Israel and the fracturing of the electorate. As a result, its Arab enemies at the end of the War Israeli governments have continued to of Independence became the country’s lurch from crisis to crisis, unable to sum- de facto boundaries. Israeli leaders across mon the will to confront the country’s most the political spectrum understood that the pressing issues. Proposals for constitutional young, struggling country could not aªord reform to solve these problems have been to pursue the dream of a state that stretched hotly debated, but they overlook the under- from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan lying culprit: the politics of the occupation. River. An issue that once had bitterly di- vided Zionists no longer seemed relevant, ISRAEL, RIGHT OR WRONG allowing Israel’s leaders to devote their First and foremost, the ongoing occupation attention to the practical business of has fueled an aggressive ethnoreligious building a new state. nationalism that has become increasingly But the June 1967 war put the question prominent in Israeli politics. Although of Israel’s boundaries back on the table, a certain amount of ethnocentrism is undoing 20 years of progress in six days. inevitable in Israel—its Declaration of Since then, the question of what to do Independence defines it, after all, as “the with the occupied territories has paralyzed Jewish state”—its formally civic state insti- Israeli politics. From the start, there were tutions gradually became more authentically those who wanted to annex the territories, civic between 1948 and 1967, nurturing the whether to acquire defensive depth or to emergence of an “Israeli” identity that

foreign affairs . November / December 2011 [11] ronen zvulun / reuters An Israeli soldier near the settlement of Neve Dekalim, in the Gaza Strip, May 22, 2005 embraced all of Israel’s citizens, regardless Union, nearly one million of whom have of their religion or ethnicity, as opposed to come to Israel since the end of the Cold an exclusively Jewish national identity. But War, and religious Jews, both ultra - the 1967 war reignited dreams of incorpo- Orthodox and Zionist—whose commit- rating into modern Israel the areas of the ment to liberal democracy is, for a variety West Bank that had been the birthplace of historical and ideological reasons, uncer- of Judaism. As Israel’s Jewish citizens tain at best. But the changing nature of the reengaged with the major historical and conflict over the past decade is also a major religious sites of their tradition, such as the factor. According to the dominant Israeli Western Wall, they increasingly embraced narrative, the dream of the Oslo process their Jewishness at the expense of a civic collapsed in 2000 when the Palestinian Israeli identity. At the same time, successful leadership not only rejected Israel’s gener- Arab eªorts to delegitimize Israel on the ous peace oªer but also launched the second international stage, most famously through intifada. The subsequent violence left the 1975 United Nations resolution that Israelis frustrated and disillusioned. They equated Zionism with racism, fed a sense generally feel that Israel has tried every- of isolation among Israeli Jews, reinforcing thing to end the conflict, from negotiations the appeal of ethnoreligious nationalism. several times over to a unilateral disengage- Although Israel gradually embraced a ment from Gaza in 2005 and a halt to more liberal politics in the wake of the first settlement construction only last year, and intifada and the Oslo accords, the country’s that they have been repaid by the Palestini- ethnocentric tendencies have deepened in ans with terrorism and obstruction. Israelis the last decade. This is partly because of the believe that the international community growth of certain communities—such has unconscionably rewarded Palestinian as immigrants from the former Soviet villainy and that Israel’s reasonableness has

. [12] foreign affairs Volume 90 No. 6 Israel’s Bunker Mentality won it only global opprobrium. Under the Knesset commission to investigate these pressure of boycott campaigns, a stream groups’ funding, that would limit their of international investigations into Israel’s sources of support, and that would ban military conduct, potential lawsuits in those that are merely suspected of opposing foreign courts against Israeli soldiers and the definition of Israel as a Jewish state. o⁄cials for alleged human rights violations, Some troubling bills have already passed, the Palestinian quest for statehood at the including one approved in July that renders un, and deteriorating relations with Egypt those calling for an economic, cultural, or and Turkey, Israelis have not felt this academic boycott of people or institutions alone and embattled for a generation. in Israel or the occupied territories liable The country’s abiding sense of anxiety to civil lawsuit. has advanced the fortunes of, among others, Optimists argue that the illiberal bills Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman will either fail, pass in watered-down form, and his pugnacious and stridently national- or be struck down by the Israeli Supreme ist party, Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Our Home). Court. But the court’s independence has The party represents the interests of Israel’s come under legislative fire, and it is unclear Russian-speaking population; immigrants, whether it would buck the prevailing predominantly from the former Soviet political trends. This threat to civic freedom Union, gave twice as much support to has made for strange bedfellows; represen- Yisrael Beitenu as to any other political tatives of left-wing ngos now sing the party in Israel’s elections in 2009, and they praises of longtime Likud critics, such supply many of its prominent leaders. But as Reuven Rivlin, Speaker of the Knesset, Yisrael Beitenu’s appeal goes beyond ethnic who declared in Haaretz this past July that immigrant politics; over half the party’s he was “ashamed and mortified” by the support in 2009 came from nonimmigrant law punishing boycotts. But Rivlin and his populations, and Israel’s illiberal turn is party allies hail from an older generation su⁄ciently broad-based that it cannot be of right-wing politicians dedicated to in- blamed on the legacy of communism come dividual liberties that is now fading away. to roost in the Middle East. Lieberman Israel’s bulwarks against the forces of has proposed the involuntary transfer of illiberal nationalism are crumbling. some of Israel’s Arab citizens to a future Palestinian state in exchange for retaining OUTSIDERS ON THE INSIDE Jewish settlement blocs in the West Bank The growing ethnocentrism among Israeli and has disparaged Israeli human rights Jews as a result of the occupation has also nongovernmental organizations (ngos) imperiled Israel’s Arab citizens, who today as “terror groups and terror supporters.” constitute just over 20 percent of Israel’s Indeed, Lieberman and members of his population and feel increasingly alienated party have led the charge in attempting from the state. Arab municipalities have al- to silence Israeli ngos focused on human ways received less funding and support rights and civil liberties. Together with than their Jewish counterparts, and Arab allies in the right-wing Likud and the citizens lag far behind in life expectancy, purportedly moderate Kadima, they educational achievement, and employment have proposed bills that would establish a opportunities—a gap that has only grown

foreign affairs . November / December 2011 [13] Ronald R. Krebs in recent years. According to the Associa- ranging from a liberal “state of all its citi- tion for the Advancement of Civic Equality zens” to a consociational arrangement in Israel, overall inequality between Jews along the lines of Belgium’s to a binational and Arabs in health, housing, education, state. Some have even endorsed violence employment, and social welfare increased against Israeli civilians, and a small number by 4.3 percent between 2006 and 2008. of Arab citizens have been caught materially On top of this, over the past decade, supporting terrorism. Arab citizens have suªered increasing The combination of these factors has hostility from the Israeli government. For led Israeli Jews to become deeply suspicious example, in 2007, the Israeli newspaper of their fellow Arab citizens. According Maariv reported that the head of the Shin to polling conducted by the University Bet, Israel’s domestic security service, had of Haifa, in 2009 upward of 65 percent of warned Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Israeli Jews saw Arab citizens as more Olmert that Israel’s Arab citizens had faithful to the Palestinian national struggle become a “strategic threat.” Since 2009, than to Israel. In those same polls, nearly Knesset members from the three largest 80 percent of respondents said they parties, Kadima, Likud, and Yisrael believed that “decisions on the character Beitenu, have put forward a parade of anti- and borders of the state” should require Arab bills, including a mandate that all the approval of a majority of Jewish citi- new immigrants swear an oath of loyalty zens only, not of the Israeli population as to Israel as a Jewish state. The Knesset a whole. A majority of Jewish respondents also passed a law that was designed to opposed the rights of individual Arab restrict Arab citizens’ commemoration citizens to buy land anywhere in Israel, and of the nakba (catastrophe), when Arabs a substantial minority (more than 30 per- mourn the establishment of Israel and the cent) believed Arab citizens should be displacement of the Palestinians, and in denied the right to vote. These views reflect early August, it began considering a new not just Jewish antipathy toward Arabs “basic law”—the equivalent of a constitu- but also the ebb and flow of the Israeli- tional provision in Israel—that would Palestinian conflict: according to the Uni- demote Arabic, which has been an o⁄cial versity of Haifa data, Jewish rejection of language of Israel since 1948, to second- Arab citizens’ right to live in Israel and to class status. vote was lowest in the mid-1980s, before This intensified discrimination against the first intifada, and in the mid-1990s, Arab citizens has come against the back- at the height of the Oslo peace process. drop of the second intifada and Israel’s It comes as no surprise, then, that ac- subsequent military campaigns against cording to these same polls, in 2009 nearly Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in 60 percent of Israel’s Arab citizens preferred Gaza. Over the past decade, leaders of to identify themselves as “Palestinians” Israel’s Arab community have repeatedly rather than “Israeli Arabs,” as opposed declared their unabashed support for the to only 50 percent who did so in 2003. Palestinian national cause, insisting that The polls found that the percentage of an Israel defined as a Jewish state is intol- Arab citizens endorsing the “right of Israel erable and proposing alternative visions, within the Green Line . . . to exist as a

. [14] foreign affairs Volume 90 No. 6 Jewish and democratic state in which Arabs and Jews live together” plummeted from FOREIGN AFFAIRS 66 percent in 2003 to just 41 percent in 2008. DIRECTORY In 2009, over half viewed a Jewish and democratic Israel as inherently racist, and nearly 75 percent endorsed using all legal Subscriber Services means to transform Israel from a Jewish subs.foreignaffairs.com into a binational state. The University of tel: 800.829.5539 international tel: 813.910.3608 Haifa data suggest that the Arabs’ views are also in large part a product of the conflict: Academic Resources four times as many rejected Israel’s right to www.foreignaffairs.com/classroom e-mail: [email protected] exist in 2009 as did in 1995. tel With the era of mass Jewish immigra- : 800.716.0002 tion almost certainly over, Arab citizens, Submit an Article whose rates of reproduction remain higher www.foreignaffairs.com/about-us/submissions than those of their Jewish counterparts, are a growing political force. As long as the Bulk and Institutional Subscriptions e-mail: occupation continues to structure Israel’s [email protected] political discourse, relations between Jew- Advertise in Foreign Affairs ish and Arab citizens of Israel will remain www.foreignaffairs.com/about-us/advertising trapped in a cycle of mutual distrust and e-mail: [email protected] tel provocation. The legitimate claims of Arab : 212.434.9526 citizens for equal rights and resources will Employment and continue to be brushed aside, and nonvio- Internship Opportunities lent challenges to Israel’s Jewish character www.foreignaffairs.com/about-us/employment will continue to be branded as treason. The occupation has impeded a serious international editions national conversation in Israel about how the country should negotiate the inherent Foreign Affairs Latinoamérica tensions between its ethnoreligious and www.fal.itam.mx e-mail: civic identities—a conversation that must [email protected] take place, because Israel’s future as a Rossia v Globalnoi Politike Jewish state and a democracy hangs in (Russian) the balance. www.globalaffairs.ru e-mail: [email protected] AN UNHOLY BURDEN Foreign Affairs Report (Japanese) The rapid growth of Israel’s ultrareligious www.foreignaffairsj.co.jp (haredi) population is contributing to the e-mail: [email protected] country’s rising illiberalism. In fact, the University of Haifa found that haredim ranked lower than any other Jewish group Visit www.foreignaffairs.com in their support for coexistence with for more information. Israel’s Arab citizens.

[15] Ronald R. Krebs But of equal concern is the threat payments disproportionately aid large haredim pose to Israel’s future prosperity. haredi families. According to Israel’s Cen- Haredi parties traditionally exploited tral Bureau of Statistics, haredi women divisions over Israel’s territorial future to averaged 6.5 children in 2007–9, lower become free-agent kingmakers, selling than in previous years but still more than their support to left- or right-leaning gov- double than the national average of 3.0. erning coalitions in exchange for massive Because haredim tend to marry at a young communal subsidies. Although their con- age and have high fertility rates, their stituents have since moved far to the right, median age is less than half that of the making such ideological flexibility less overall Israeli population. According to the likely, haredi parties have continued to Metzilah Center, an Israeli think tank, command a substantial bounty. In return the haredi community will double in the for haredi votes in the Knesset, Israel’s next 20 years, to 15 percent of Israel’s over- governments have funded full-time study all population, or over 20 percent of the in yeshivas for adult men and separate Jewish populace. The center predicts that haredi primary and secondary schools with by 2028, 25 percent of all children in Israel, limited state oversight and secular educa- and 33 percent of Israel’s Jewish children, tion. And thanks to an arrangement dating will come from haredi families. back to Israel’s creation, haredim are ex- Such statistics worry those responsible empted from serving in the Israel Defense for Israel’s economy. Last year, Stanley Forces as long as they study in yeshiva. A Fischer, governor of the Bank of Israel, and program that initially provided a special Yuval Steinitz, Israel’s finance minister, waiver to 400 students now excuses some warned that unemployment in the haredi 50,000 military-age ultra-Orthodox men population threatens Israel’s prosperity. from service. Backed by an entrenched Fischer bluntly declared that the current cultural norm that valorizes full-time system “is not sustainable.” “We can’t have religious study, many of these young an ever-increasing proportion of the pop- men remain in yeshivas for the rest of ulation continuing to not go to work,” he their lives. Haredi unemployment has said. Steinitz was, if anything, more pes- dropped in recent years, but according to simistic: “Without a change now, within ten the Bank of Israel, less than 40 percent years the situation will be a catastrophe.” of haredi men were employed in 2009. For The Israeli government could compel those between the ages of 30 and 34, this haredim to acquire secular education and number was less than 25 percent. join the work force by, for example, reduc- The burden of the haredi population ing per-child welfare payments or forcing on the Israeli economy is immense and young haredi men to serve in the military. growing. In 2010, the Israeli Ministry of But these options will remain nonstarters Industry, Trade, and Labor found that as long as Israeli governments rise or fall on haredim, who comprise less than ten per- the support of ultra-Orthodox parties. And cent of Israel’s population, make up 20 as the haredi population continues to grow, percent of the country’s poor and that some a moderate coalition that might force it 56 percent of haredim live under the poverty to reform will become more and more un- line. In addition, per-child social welfare likely—even if the occupation were to end.

. [16] foreign affairs Volume 90 No. 6 Subsidies for the haredim are one of the reasons that the overall tax burden on Israel’s citizens is high, helping propel a slow exodus of largely secular Jewish elites from the country. In recent years, Israel has suªered from a brain drain, in which large numbers of its most talented citizens have gone abroad to complete advanced Editorial Internship degrees and have not returned. Although the loss of highly skilled labor is typical for less developed nations, it is unusual for a Foreign Affairs is looking for an Academic developed, economically vibrant country Year Intern to join our editorial team. such as Israel. According to a 2007 study in the Israel Economic Review, between 1995 The Academic Year Internship is a full-time and 2004, nearly five percent of Israelis paid position offering exceptional training between the ages of 30 and 40 with at least in serious journalism. The intern works as a master’s degree left the country. The study an assistant editor with substantial respon- also found that college-educated Israelis sibility. Previous interns have included immigrated to the United States at a recent graduates from undergraduate and higher rate than college-educated citizens master’s programs. Candidates should of any other country. As of 2007, the num- have a serious interest in international rela- ber of Israeli lecturers at U.S. universities tions, a flair for writing, and a facility with was equivalent to 25 percent of Israel’s the English language. total senior academic staª—double the analogous ratio for Canada, which ranked The Academic Year Intern works for one second, and nearly six times those for year, starting in July or August. Holland and Italy, which were next in line. Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics found To apply for the 2012–13 academic year that between 1990 and 2009, 260,000 position, please submit a resumé, three more Israelis left the country for at least writing samples, and three letters of a year than returned from a year or more recommendation by February 17, 2012. abroad. Although the recent economic stagnation in Europe and the United We do not accept applications by e-mail. States appears to have slowed this trend, it Only finalists will be interviewed. remains to be seen whether this is a tem- porary aberration or a permanent shift. One cause of this flight is economic and professional opportunity. Israelis Please send complete applications to: working in the sciences and high-tech Editorial Internships industries often find higher salaries and Foreign Affairs better research environments overseas. 58 East 68th Street New York, NY 10065 Last year, in an eªort to entice the country’s tel: 212. 434.9507 most capable scientists to remain in Israel,

[17] Ronald R. Krebs the government designated $350 million Only by abandoning the occupation to create 30 centers for scientific excellence can Israel cure these political ills and un- within five years. But that move is not likely dergo the revolution it needs. Resolving to be enough. The study in the Israel Eco- the conflict could deflate the current eth- nomic Review found that Israelis living in nocentric mood among Israeli Jews and the United States had left Israel largely encourage Israel’s Arab citizens to end not because of lack of research opportuni- their unproductive provocation. It would ties but because of its cost of living, high allow a coalition of forces from among taxes, excessive government regulation, Israel’s secular mainstream parties to join poor schools, and the security situation. forces to defend liberal values, provide for Given the likelihood that these factors greater equality for Arab citizens of Israel, will remain in place, there is little reason and compel the haredim to become produc- to think that the brain drain will slow. As tive members of society. Israel’s democracy the impoverished haredi population grows, would still face a number of problems: Israel’s best-educated and high-earning most notably, extreme wealth inequality, citizens will bear the burden of subsidizing continued political instability in surround- it. And if Israel’s politics continue down ing Arab states, and Iran’s quest for nuclear the path of ethnocentrism, Israel’s best weapons. But an end to the occupation and brightest may have yet another reason would allow Israel to shed its unsustain- to leave. able subsidies to the settlers and the The occupation is not the sole cause of haredim, freeing up resources to rebuild Israel’s brain drain, but it does contribute the country’s social safety net, whose ero- to the problem. Relieving Israel of the sion underpinned the mass protests that burdens of the occupation would improve erupted this past summer. And it would the nation’s security, weaken the political give Israel the chance to rebut critics standing of the haredim, and allow the who argue that Israel is an irredeemably Israeli government to refocus its spending. ethnocentric and even racist state. By feeding into the brain drain, the politics Of course, Israel cannot end the of the occupation are putting Israel’s long- occupation alone. A stable peace requires term prosperity at risk. Palestinian partners who will persuade their people to accept negotiated borders BACK TO THE FUTURE as final, relinquish the dream of a return The occupation stands at the center of to their ancestral homes, and acknowledge the challenges to Israel’s future as a Jew- that Israel is not a temporary interloper but ish, democratic, and prosperous state. It a permanent presence. Such Palestinian has fueled nationalist chauvinism among leadership has too often failed to materi- Israeli Jews, promoted discriminatory alize. But Israel’s commitment to peace state policies and greater bigotry toward has also too often been halfhearted. Its Israel’s Arab citizens, produced divisive leaders must do all they can to end the politics that have empowered the haredi conflict—to ensure Israel’s very survival community to pursue its own interests at as the Jewish state and liberal democracy the expense of the state, and contributed its founders envisaged.∂ to Israel’s brain drain.

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