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UNIVERSITY of CALGARY Estimating Extreme Snow

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UNIVERSITY of CALGARY Estimating Extreme Snow UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY Estimating Extreme Snow Avalanche Runout for the Columbia Mountains and Fernie Area of British Columbia, Canada by: Katherine S. Johnston A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING CALGARY, ALBERTA AUGUST, 2011 ©Katherine S. Johnston 2011 ABSTRACT Extreme snow avalanche runout is typically estimated using a combination of historical and vegetation records as well as statistical and dynamic models. The two classes of statistical models (α – β and runout ratio) are based on estimating runout distance past the β-point, which is generally defined as the point where the avalanche slope incline first decreases to 10°. The parameters for these models vary from mountain range to mountain range. In Canada, α – β and runout ratio parameters have been published for the Rocky and Purcell Mountains and for the British Columbia Coastal mountains. Despite active development, no suitable tall avalanche path model parameters have been published for the Columbia Mountains or for the Lizard Range area around Fernie, BC. Using a dataset of 70 avalanche paths, statistical model parameters have been derived for these regions. In addition, the correlation between extreme and average snowfall values and avalanche runout is explored. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Thank you to Bruce Jamieson for giving me the opportunity to work on this project, and for coordinating the financial support for this project. His thoughtful advice, numerous reviews, and inspirational leadership have helped make this a fantastic experience. My thanks to Alan Jones for providing numerous hours of guidance, mentoring, and thoughtful discussion throughout this project, and for facilitating data acquisition from outside sources. Thanks also to Chris Stethem (Chris Stethem and Associates), Mark Vesley (Fernie Alpine Resort), Steve Kuijt (Island Lake Catskiing) and Craig Ellis (Imperial Metals) for collecting detailed observations and for sharing field data. For assistance with summer and winter fieldwork I would like to thank my fellow students Cameron Ross, Mike Smith, Dave Tracz, Cora Shea, Ryan Buhler, and Scott Thumlert, and ASARC technicians Mark Kolasinski, Deanna Andersen and Michael Shynkaryk. For dedicated and detailed proof reading, thanks to Ryan Buhler, Scott Thumlert and Sascha Bellaire. For field support of the ASARC program and for practical insight I would like to thank Bruce McMahon, Jeff Goodrich, Rob Hemming, and the entire Avalanche Control Section of Glacier National Park. For financial support of the ASARC program, I would like to acknowledge and thank to Natural Sciences and Research Council and Canada (NSERC), the Helicat Canada Association, the Canadian Avalanche Association, Mike Wiegele Helicopter Skiing, the Canada West Ski Area Association, Parks Canada, the Association of Canadian Mountain Guides, the Backcountry Lodges of British Columbia Association, the Canadian Ski Guide Association and Teck Coal. Thank you to the Alliance Pipeline for supporting me with the Naomi Heffler Memorial Scholarship and to the Alberta Scholarship Programs for supporting me with an Alberta Graduate Student Scholarship. iv Table of Contents ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................ iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................. xi LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................ xv 1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Snow Avalanches .............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Avalanche Terrain............................................................................................................. 4 1.3 Avalanche Motion ............................................................................................................ 5 1.4 Avalanche Frequency and Return Interval ....................................................................... 8 1.5 Avalanche Accidents and Costs in Canada ....................................................................... 8 1.6 Avalanche Hazard Mitigation ......................................................................................... 10 1.7 Avalanche Hazard Zoning in Canada .............................................................................. 11 1.8 Avalanche Runout Models ............................................................................................. 13 1.9 Assessing Avalanche Hazard for Land Use Planning ...................................................... 14 1.10 Influence of Climate on Runout ..................................................................................... 16 1.11 Objectives and Overview of Thesis ................................................................................ 18 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................................... 20 2.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................... 20 2.2 Key Developments in the Theory of Statistical Models ................................................. 21 2.3 Statistical Runout Models .............................................................................................. 23 2.3.1 Alpha-Beta Statistical Models ................................................................................. 23 2.3.2 Runout Ratio Statistical Model ............................................................................... 25 2.3.3 Scale Effects in Extreme Avalanche Runout Models .............................................. 26 2.3.4 Climate and Geomorphology Effects on Extreme Avalanche Runout Estimation .. 28 2.4 Dynamic Runout Models ................................................................................................ 30 2.5 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 31 v 3.0 STUDY AREA AND METHODS ............................................................................................. 33 3.1 Study Areas ..................................................................................................................... 33 3.1.1 Fernie Area .............................................................................................................. 33 3.1.2 Columbia Mountains ............................................................................................... 34 3.2 Avalanche Path and Precipitation Data ......................................................................... 35 3.2.1 Avalanche Path Data for the South Rocky Mountains............................................ 37 3.2.2 Avalanche Path Data for the Columbia Mountains ............................................... 39 3.2.3 Precipitation Data ................................................................................................... 41 3.3 Field Methods and Equipment ....................................................................................... 43 3.3.1 Survey Procedures .................................................................................................. 44 3.3.2 Field Indicators of Avalanche Size and Frequency .................................................. 45 3.4 Avalanche Path Characteristics ...................................................................................... 48 3.5 Sources of Uncertainty ................................................................................................... 49 4.0 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ..................................................................................................... 51 4.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................... 51 4.2 Data ................................................................................................................................ 51 4.2.1 Description of Variables .......................................................................................... 51 4.2.2 Descriptive Statistics and Distribution of Variables ................................................ 54 4.3 Alpha-Beta Statistical Runout Models ........................................................................... 60 4.3.1 Description of Multiple Regression Method........................................................... 60 4.3.2 Fernie Area Multiple Regression Models ................................................................ 61 4.3.3 Fernie Area Simplified Regression Model ............................................................... 65 4.3.4 Columbias Mountains Multiple Regression Models ............................................... 69 4.3.5 Columbia Mountains Simplified Regression Model ................................................ 72 4.3.6 Columbia Mountains Simplified Regression Models by Sub-Range ....................... 75 4.3.7 Summary of Alpha-Beta Model Parameters ..........................................................
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