SIPRI THE IMPACT OF Policy Paper ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON STRATEGIC STABILITY AND NUCLEAR RISK Volume II East Asian Perspectives edited by lora saalman October 2019 STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. GOVERNING BOARD Ambassador Jan Eliasson, Chair (Sweden) Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia) Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia) Espen Barth Eide (Norway) Jean-Marie Guéhenno (France) Dr Radha Kumar (India) Dr Patricia Lewis (Ireland/United Kingdom) Dr Jessica Tuchman Mathews (United States) DIRECTOR Dan Smith (United Kingdom) Signalistgatan 9 SE-169 72 Solna, Sweden Telephone: + 46 8 655 9700 Email:
[email protected] Internet: www.sipri.org The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk Volume II East Asian Perspectives edited by lora saalman October 2019 Contents Preface vii Acknowledgements viii Abbreviations ix Executive Summary xi Introduction 1 1. Introduction 3 Box 1.1. Key definitions 4 Part I. The technologies and dynamics of artificial intelligence 11 and nuclear risk 2. Artificial intelligence and its impact on weaponization and 13 arms control I. Strategic weapons 13 II. Cyberspace 16 III. Lethal autonomous weapon systems 17 IV. Conclusions 17 3. The role of artificial intelligence in cyber-deterrence 20 I. The impact of machine learning 20 II. Conditions for cyber-deterrence 21 III. Problems for cyber-deterrence 22 IV.