Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Company Date 18 February 2016 Buy BAIC Motor Forecast Change Asia China Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 18 Feb 2016 (HKD) 5.70 Automobiles & 1958.HK 1958 HK HSI 1958 Price target - 12mth (HKD) 7.40 Components 52-week range (HKD) 11.50 - 4.75 HANG SENG INDEX 18,925 Benz JV shines but local brand still in Vincent Ha, CFA Fei Sun, CFA reverse gear Research Analyst Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6247 (+852 ) 2203 6130 Benz JV success obscured by weakness at Hyundai JV and Beijing Motor
[email protected] [email protected] BAIC's shares have underperformed even in a weak market, with a 27% decline YTD (vs. HSCEI's 15% drop), at a time when the Benz JV is seeing robust sales as expected. While we think the pressure on the Hyundai JV will Key changes be relieved by more new models, the Beijing Motor local brand operation still Price target 9.50 to 7.40 ↓ -22.1% struggles, even with better sales, and is the primary reason for our earnings Sales (FYE) 84,048 to 81,101 ↓ -3.5% cuts. We now forecast a ~RMB3bn annual loss for Beijing Motor and assign a Op prof 6.6 to 6.4 ↓ -3.8% negative value of HKD2.8/share to it. This implies a valuation of 9x for the margin (FYE) Benz/Hyundai JVs' FY16E earnings growth of 12%, still justifying a Buy rating. Net profit 4,709.2 to ↓ -19.3% (FYE) 3,798.9 Benz JV’s sales volume up 52% in January; strong growth to continue Source: Deutsche Bank Based on Daimler’s (DAIGn.DE, EUR64.86, Buy) FY15 annual report, Beijing Benz JV made a profit of EUR862m (+178%), ahead of our expectations, on a Price/price relative 66% YoY jump in revenue.