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Buy BAIC Motor Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Company Date 18 February 2016 Buy BAIC Motor Forecast Change Asia China Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 18 Feb 2016 (HKD) 5.70 Automobiles & 1958.HK 1958 HK HSI 1958 Price target - 12mth (HKD) 7.40 Components 52-week range (HKD) 11.50 - 4.75 HANG SENG INDEX 18,925 Benz JV shines but local brand still in Vincent Ha, CFA Fei Sun, CFA reverse gear Research Analyst Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6247 (+852 ) 2203 6130 Benz JV success obscured by weakness at Hyundai JV and Beijing Motor [email protected] [email protected] BAIC's shares have underperformed even in a weak market, with a 27% decline YTD (vs. HSCEI's 15% drop), at a time when the Benz JV is seeing robust sales as expected. While we think the pressure on the Hyundai JV will Key changes be relieved by more new models, the Beijing Motor local brand operation still Price target 9.50 to 7.40 ↓ -22.1% struggles, even with better sales, and is the primary reason for our earnings Sales (FYE) 84,048 to 81,101 ↓ -3.5% cuts. We now forecast a ~RMB3bn annual loss for Beijing Motor and assign a Op prof 6.6 to 6.4 ↓ -3.8% negative value of HKD2.8/share to it. This implies a valuation of 9x for the margin (FYE) Benz/Hyundai JVs' FY16E earnings growth of 12%, still justifying a Buy rating. Net profit 4,709.2 to ↓ -19.3% (FYE) 3,798.9 Benz JV’s sales volume up 52% in January; strong growth to continue Source: Deutsche Bank Based on Daimler’s (DAIGn.DE, EUR64.86, Buy) FY15 annual report, Beijing Benz JV made a profit of EUR862m (+178%), ahead of our expectations, on a Price/price relative 66% YoY jump in revenue. In January, the JV recoded a strong 52% YoY jump in sales volume and we remain upbeat given the JV’s FY16 sales and profit 12 outlook on the ramp-up of new model sales (e.g. GLC Class SUV). 11 9 We foresee mild growth in Hyundai JV; Beijing Motor losses to continue 8 In January, Beijing Hyundai registered a 27% YoY sales volume decline. While 6 we expect sales to improve with the upcoming launch of the Elantra Lingdong 5 compact sedan, we prudently assume that margins will remain under pressure 12/14 6/15 12/15 due to competition from Japanese brands. Meanwhile, Beijing Motor local BAIC Motor brands had a good start to the year with a 34% January sales volume YoY HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased) increase on new SUV sales, but we factor in more cautious loss assumptions Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m given the intense competition for local brands, especially in the SUV segment. Absolute -3.1 -24.0 -32.3 Maintaining Buy but no longer a Chinese auto top pick HANG SENG INDEX -1.6 -14.7 -23.8 We cut our earnings forecasts on BAIC Motor mainly due to bigger loss Source: Deutsche Bank assumptions for the local brands. We use a sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) approach to value BAIC, based on DCF-derived valuations for Beijing Benz, Beijing Hyundai, and Beijing Motor (see the valuation section for details). We think that the implied target FY16E P/E of 10.1x is justified, considering a 25% FY15- 17E EPS CAGR. Major downside risks include weak new model sales and a failure to contain costs. Our top Buy is Dongfeng (0489.HK, HKD9.56). Forecasts And Ratios Year End Dec 31 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Sales (CNYm) 12,781.9 56,370.3 81,101.0 97,136.1 109,714.4 Reported NPAT (CNYm) 2,714.0 4,510.8 3,798.9 4,990.9 6,012.0 DB EPS FD (CNY) 0.48 0.70 0.50 0.66 0.79 OLD DB EPS FD (CNY) 0.48 0.70 0.62 0.81 0.98 % Change 0.0% 0.0% -19.3% -19.0% -19.0% DB EPS growth (%) -30.9 45.3 -28.4 30.6 20.5 PER (x) – 10.1 9.5 7.3 6.0 Yield (net) (%) – 4.3 4.7 6.2 7.5 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data 1 DB EPS is fully diluted and excludes non-recurring items 2 Multiples and yields calculations use average historical prices for past years and spot prices for current and future years, except P/B which uses the year end close ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. 18 February 2016 Automobiles & Components BAIC Motor Model updated:18 February 2016 Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Running the numbers Financial Summary Asia DB EPS (CNY) 0.70 0.48 0.70 0.50 0.66 0.79 Reported EPS (CNY) 0.68 0.48 0.70 0.50 0.66 0.79 China DPS (CNY) 0.27 0.36 0.30 0.23 0.30 0.36 BVPS (CNY) 2.9 3.7 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.6 Automobiles & Components Weighted average shares (m) 5,001 5,612 6,419 7,552 7,595 7,595 BAIC Motor Average market cap (CNYm) na na 45,753 35,856 35,856 35,856 Enterprise value (CNYm) na na 48,291 43,987 42,446 39,796 Reuters: 1958.HK Bloomberg: 1958 HK Valuation Metrics P/E (DB) (x) na na 10.1 9.5 7.3 6.0 Buy P/E (Reported) (x) na na 10.1 9.5 7.3 6.0 Price (18 Feb 16) HKD 5.70 P/BV (x) 0.00 0.00 1.61 1.02 0.94 0.85 Target Price HKD 7.40 FCF Yield (%) na na nm nm 7.3 12.9 Dividend Yield (%) na na 4.3 4.7 6.2 7.5 52 Week range HKD 4.75 - 11.50 EV/Sales (x) nm nm 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 Market Cap (m) HKDm 42,796 EV/EBITDA (x) nm nm 12.7 4.7 3.5 2.9 EV/EBIT (x) nm nm 34.0 8.5 5.8 4.5 USDm 5,495 Income Statement (CNYm) Company Profile Sales revenue 3,520 12,782 56,370 81,101 97,136 109,714 BAIC Motor is the fifth largest manufacturer of passenger Gross profit -168 415 8,983 15,168 18,953 21,956 vehicles in China in terms of total sales volume. The EBITDA 357 -1,649 3,807 9,301 12,113 13,796 company's major businesses include production and sales Depreciation 125 572 1,856 3,422 4,036 4,080 of passenger vehicles, engines and auto parts. Major JV Amortisation 80 262 529 723 815 896 partners include Daimler and Hyundai. EBIT 151 -2,484 1,422 5,156 7,262 8,820 Net interest income(expense) -158 -474 -533 -847 -738 -563 Associates/affiliates 3,792 6,022 5,809 4,101 4,311 4,524 Exceptionals/extraordinaries -81 0 0 0 0 0 Other pre-tax income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Profit before tax 3,785 3,065 6,698 8,410 10,835 12,781 Price Performance Income tax expense 226 114 857 1,742 2,352 2,728 Minorities 61 237 1,331 2,869 3,492 4,042 12 Other post-tax income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 Net profit 3,417 2,714 4,511 3,799 4,991 6,012 9 DB adjustments (including dilution) 81 0 0 0 0 0 8 DB Net profit 3,498 2,714 4,511 3,799 4,991 6,012 6 Cash Flow (CNYm) 5 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Cash flow from operations -624 -2,457 2,262 7,335 9,633 11,546 Net Capex -5,637 -7,194 -11,342 -12,260 -6,980 -6,880 BAIC Motor HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased) Free cash flow -6,261 -9,651 -9,080 -4,925 2,653 4,666 Equity raised/(bought back) 3,003 6,132 7,910 618 0 0 Margin Trends Dividends paid -1,541 -285 -2,793 -2,279 -1,710 -2,246 Net inc/(dec) in borrowings 5,998 7,194 7,396 -6,168 -2,645 -3,504 20 Other investing/financing cash flows -125 10,338 1,700 3,256 3,453 3,604 10 Net cash flow 1,074 13,727 5,133 -9,499 1,752 2,520 Change in working capital 237 -45 1,282 798 803 1,252 0 Balance Sheet (CNYm) -10 Cash and other liquid assets 2,891 16,790 21,923 12,424 14,177 16,697 -20 Tangible fixed assets 7,151 24,755 34,218 40,356 40,801 41,201 12 13 14 15E 16E 17E Goodwill/intangible assets 5,025 11,012 13,598 15,575 17,261 18,765 EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Associates/investments 10,462 12,653 14,070 14,677 15,313 15,980 Other assets 6,253 20,186 26,048 30,195 37,361 40,571 Growth & Profitability Total assets 31,782 85,396 109,859 113,228 124,912 133,213 Interest bearing debt 11,696 22,956 29,918 23,750 21,105 17,601 400 30 Other liabilities 4,074 31,386 37,972 42,503 50,058 54,055 25 300 Total liabilities 15,770 54,342 67,890 66,252 71,163 71,656 20 Shareholders' equity 15,798 23,692 33,355 35,493 38,774 42,541 200 15 Minorities 215 7,362 8,614 11,483 14,975 19,017 10 100 Total shareholders' equity 16,012 31,053 41,969 46,976 53,749 61,557 5 Net debt 8,805 6,166 7,995 11,325 6,928 904 0 0 12 13 14 15E 16E 17E Key Company Metrics Sales growth (%) 83.7 263.2 341.0 43.9 19.8 12.9 Sales growth (LHS) ROE (RHS) DB EPS growth (%) 21.6 -30.9 45.3 -28.4 30.6 20.5 Solvency EBITDA Margin (%) 10.1 -12.9 6.8 11.5 12.5 12.6 EBIT Margin (%) 4.3 -19.4 2.5 6.4 7.5 8.0 60 20 Payout ratio (%) 40.2 73.7 43.2 44.7 45.0 45.0 50 ROE (%) 25.6 13.7 15.8 11.0 13.4 14.8 15 40 Capex/sales (%) 160.8 56.6 20.9 15.2 7.2 6.3 30 10 Capex/depreciation (x) 27.6 8.7 4.9 3.0 1.4 1.4 20 Net debt/equity (%) 55.0 19.9 19.0 24.1 12.9 1.5 5 10 Net interest cover (x) 1.0 nm 2.7 6.1 9.8 15.7 0 0 Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates 12 13 14 15E 16E 17E Net debt/equity (LHS) Net interest cover (RHS) Vincent Ha, CFA +852 2203 6247 [email protected] Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 18 February 2016 Automobiles & Components BAIC Motor Benz JV supports our Buy Beijing Benz – GLA/GLC/E Class to drive growth With the full-year sales contribution of the new generation C-Class (launched in August 2014) and the sales ramp-up of the all-new GLA Class (launched in April 2015), Beijing Benz’s FY15 sales volume jumped 72.0%.
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