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Understanding Fragmentation in Conflict and Its Impact on Prospects for Peace
oslo FORUM papers N°006 - December 2016 Understanding fragmentation in conflict and its impact on prospects for peace Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham www.hd centre.org – www.osloforum.org Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue 114, Rue de Lausanne 1202 Geneva | Switzerland t : +41 22 908 11 30 f : +41 22 908 11 40 [email protected] www.hdcentre.org Oslo Forum www.osloforum.org The Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD) is a private diplo- macy organisation founded on the principles of humanity, impartiality and independence. Its mission is to help pre- vent, mitigate, and resolve armed conflict through dialogue and mediation. © 2016 – Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue Reproduction of all or part of this publication may be author- ised only with written consent and acknowledgment of the source. Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham Associate Professor at the Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland [email protected] http://www.kathleengallaghercunningham.com Table of contents INTRODUCTION 2 1. WHAT IS FRAGMENTATION? 3 Fragmented actors 3 Multiple actors 3 Identifying fragmentation 4 New trends 4 The causes of fragmentation 5 2. THE CONSEQUENCES OF FRAGMENTATION FOR CONFLICT 7 Violence 7 Accommodation and war termination 7 Side switching 8 3. HOW PEACE PROCESSES AFFECT FRAGMENTATION 9 Coalescing 9 Intentional fragmentation 9 Unintentional fragmentation 9 Mediation 10 4. RESPONSES OF MEDIATORS AND OTHER THIRD-PARTY ACTORS TO FRAGMENTATION 11 Negotiations including all armed groups 11 Sequential negotiations 11 Inclusion of unarmed actors and national dialogue 12 Efforts to coalesce the opposition 13 5. AFTER SETTLEMENT 14 CONCLUSION 15 ENDNOTES 16 2 The Oslo Forum Papers | Understanding fragmentation in conflict Introduction Complicated conflicts with many disparate actors have cators of fragmentation, new trends, and a summation of why become increasingly common in the international system. -
Famine and Foreigners: Ethiopia Since Live Aid This Page Intentionally Left Blank Famine and Foreigners: Ethiopia Since Live Aid
‘Th ank God for great journalism. Th is book is a much needed, ex- haustively researched and eff ortlessly well written recent history of Ethiopia. A book that strips away the cant and rumour, the pros and antis and thoroughly explains the people, politics and economics of that most beautiful nation. A superb and vital piece of work by some- one who clearly loves the country of which he writes.’ Bob Geldof ‘Th e great Ethiopian famine changed everything and nothing. It fun- damentally altered the rich world’s sense of its responsibility to the hungry and the poor, but didn’t solve anything. A quarter of a century on, we’re still arguing about the roots of the problem, let alone the so- lution, and—though there has been progress—Ethiopia’s food inse- curity gets worse, not better. Peter Gill was one of the most thorough and eff ective television journalists of his generation. He was there in 1984 and his work at the time added up to the most sensible, balanced and comprehensive explanation of what had happened. Twenty-fi ve years later, he’s gone back to test decades of aspiration against the re- alities on the ground. It’s a book that bridges journalism and history, judicious analysis with a strong, and often gripping, narrative. Always readable, but never glib, this is a must for all those who think there is a simple answer to the famine, still waiting in the wings. ’ Michael Buerk ‘No outsider understands Ethiopia better than Peter Gill. He com- bines compassion with a clinical commitment to the truth. -
The Church Committee, the CIA, and the Intelligence Dimension of US
13 Unquiet Americans: The Church Committee, the CIA, and the Intelligence Dimension of U.S. Public Diplomacy in the 1970s Paul M. McGarr On September 13, 1974, William E. Colby, the Director of U.S Central Intelligence, stood before the annual conference of the Fund for Peace, a Washington D.C. based non- profit institution, concerned with security and development in the global south. Speaking in the context of a post-Watergate political climate heavily laden with conspiracism and suspicion, Colby surprised his audience by making a case for greater “openness” and transparency on the part of the Central Intelligence Agency. Alluding to CIA-led interventions stretching back to the late 1940s, that had sought to effect regime change in Italy, Iran, Guatemala, Indonesia, the Congo, and Cuba, amongst others, Colby acknowledged the Agency’s record in, “assist[ing] America’s friends against her adversaries in their contest for control of a foreign nation’s political direction.” Remarkably, America’s spymaster went on to publicly defend the utility of CIA interference in the internal affairs of independent sovereign states. “I . would think it mistaken to deprive our nation of the possibility of some moderate covert action response to a foreign problem,” Colby volunteered, “and leave us with nothing between a diplomatic protest and sending in the Marines.”1 In India, where the CIA had been under a media microscope since 1967, when the American magazine Ramparts exposed the Agency’s longstanding financial relationships with an international network of anti- communist educational and cultural bodies, Colby’s candor, in the words of U.S. -
The Mitrokhin Archive Reveals the STASI Usage of Number Stations
The Mitrokhin Archive reveals the STASI usage of number stations Major Vasili Mitrokhin (1922- 2004) was a senior KGB archivist. He began his carrier in the Soviet secret service from 1948. He started as overseas undercover operative, but later was moved to archives of the KGB's First Chief Directorate. It was responsible for foreign operations and intelligence collection activities by the training and management of the covert agents, intelligence collection management, and the collection of political, scientific and technical intelligence. As archivist he gained access to many secret and sensitive documents. He became disillusioned with the Soviet system by listening western radio broadcasts and reading the documents about the Soviet repressions and atrocities. He managed to make copies and detailed notes of the documents from the archive, while he supervised the archive move from Lubyanka building to the new KGB headquarters at Yasenevo. In 1985 he retired. After the collapse of the Soviet Union he traveled to Riga, Latvia and tried to make contact with the US embassy. He was however, turned down by the Americans who did not trust the authenticity of his documents. The UK embassy was more helpful and Mitrokhin gained appointment with the British Secret Service the MI6 and the 25,000 pages of files hidden in his house, covering operations from as far back as the 1930s. The content of these notes and documents have been described in various books, but now his archive has been made digital in the Churchill Archives Center. Among the published documents one document caught our attention, the STASI German/Russian lexicon of intelligence terms. -
Title of Thesis: ABSTRACT CLASSIFYING BIAS
ABSTRACT Title of Thesis: CLASSIFYING BIAS IN LARGE MULTILINGUAL CORPORA VIA CROWDSOURCING AND TOPIC MODELING Team BIASES: Brianna Caljean, Katherine Calvert, Ashley Chang, Elliot Frank, Rosana Garay Jáuregui, Geoffrey Palo, Ryan Rinker, Gareth Weakly, Nicolette Wolfrey, William Zhang Thesis Directed By: Dr. David Zajic, Ph.D. Our project extends previous algorithmic approaches to finding bias in large text corpora. We used multilingual topic modeling to examine language-specific bias in the English, Spanish, and Russian versions of Wikipedia. In particular, we placed Spanish articles discussing the Cold War on a Russian-English viewpoint spectrum based on similarity in topic distribution. We then crowdsourced human annotations of Spanish Wikipedia articles for comparison to the topic model. Our hypothesis was that human annotators and topic modeling algorithms would provide correlated results for bias. However, that was not the case. Our annotators indicated that humans were more perceptive of sentiment in article text than topic distribution, which suggests that our classifier provides a different perspective on a text’s bias. CLASSIFYING BIAS IN LARGE MULTILINGUAL CORPORA VIA CROWDSOURCING AND TOPIC MODELING by Team BIASES: Brianna Caljean, Katherine Calvert, Ashley Chang, Elliot Frank, Rosana Garay Jáuregui, Geoffrey Palo, Ryan Rinker, Gareth Weakly, Nicolette Wolfrey, William Zhang Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Gemstone Honors Program, University of Maryland, 2018 Advisory Committee: Dr. David Zajic, Chair Dr. Brian Butler Dr. Marine Carpuat Dr. Melanie Kill Dr. Philip Resnik Mr. Ed Summers © Copyright by Team BIASES: Brianna Caljean, Katherine Calvert, Ashley Chang, Elliot Frank, Rosana Garay Jáuregui, Geoffrey Palo, Ryan Rinker, Gareth Weakly, Nicolette Wolfrey, William Zhang 2018 Acknowledgements We would like to express our sincerest gratitude to our mentor, Dr. -
The Soviet Roots of Meddling in U.S. Politics
The Soviet Roots of Meddling in U.S. Politics PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 452 January 2017 Mark Kramer1 Harvard University The release on January 6 of an unclassified version of the U.S. Intelligence Community’s report describing efforts by Russian security services to influence last year’s U.S. presidential campaign in favor of Donald Trump evoked a sense of deja vu. Despite the advent of cyberwarfare, the Russian government’s attempts to sway the U.S. election in 2016 were strikingly reminiscent of Soviet “active measures” during the Cold War. The Intelligence Community report says that Russia’s use of cyberwarfare and other tactics in 2016 was “the most recent expression of Moscow’s longstanding desire to undermine the US-led liberal democratic order.” This is undoubtedly true, but the report goes on to claim that “these activities demonstrated a significant escalation in directness, level of activity, and scope of effort compared to previous operations.” This sweeping characterization is toned down later in the report, but only slightly. The notion that Russian intelligence services’ actions in 2016 were unprecedented in scale reflects an inadequate understanding of the historical context. The reality is that the two main Soviet intelligence and security agencies—the KGB and GRU (military intelligence)—kept up a vigorous campaign for several decades to meddle in U.S. politics and discredit the United States. The “active measures” used by the KGB and GRU during the Cold War, including disinformation, forgeries of documents and letters, and the spread of propaganda through sympathetic individuals and front organizations, were remarkably similar to the tactics and goals of Russian intelligence agencies in 2016. -
Researching Soviet/Russian Intelligence in America: Bibliography (Last Updated: October 2018)
Know Your FSB From Your KGB: Researching Soviet/Russian Intelligence in America: Bibliography (Last updated: October 2018) 1. Federal Government Sources A. The 2016 US Presidential Election Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections. Office of the Director of National intelligence, January 6, 2017. Committee Findings on the 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, July 3, 2018. Disinformation: Panel I, Panel II. A Primer in Russian Active Measures and Influence Campaigns: Hearing Before the Select Committee on Intelligence of the United States Senate, One Hundred Fifteenth Congress, First Session, Thursday, March 30, 2017. (Y 4.IN 8/19: S.HRG.115-40/) Link: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo86393 FACT SHEET: Actions in Response to Russian Malicious Cyber Activity and Harassment. White House Office of the Press Secretary, December 29, 2016. Grand Jury Indicts 12 Russian Intelligence Officers for Hacking Offenses Related to the 2016 Election. Department of Justice Office of Public Affairs, July 13, 2018. Grizzly Steppe: Russian Malicious Cyber Activity. U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and Federal Bureau of Investigation, December 29, 2016. Information Warfare: Issues for Congress. Congressional Research Service, March 5, 2018. Minority Views: The Minority Members of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence on March 26, 2018, Submit the Following Minority Views to the Majority-Produced "Report on Russian active Measures, March 22, 2018." House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, March 26, 2018. Open Hearing: Social Media Influence in the 2016 U.S. Election: Hearing Before the Select Committee on Intelligence of the United States Senate, One Hundred Fifteenth Congress, First Session, Wednesday, November 1, 2017. -
Covert Networks a Comparative Study Of
COVERT NETWORKS A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF INTELLIGENCE TECHNIQUES USED BY FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES TO WEAPONIZE SOCIAL MEDIA by Sarah Ogar A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Baltimore, Maryland December 2019 2019 Sarah Ogar All Rights Reserved Abstract From the Bolshevik Revolution to the Brexit Vote, the covert world of intelligence has attempted to influence global events with varying degrees of success. In 2016, one of the most brazen manifestations of Russian intelligence operations was directed against millions of Americans when they voted to elect a new president. Although this was not the first time that Russia attempted to influence an American presidential election, it was undoubtedly the largest attempt in terms of its scope and the most publicized to date. Although much discussion has followed the 2016 election, there have not been much concerted historical analysis which situates the events of 2016 within the global timeline of foreign intelligence collection. This paper argues that the onset of social media has altered intelligence collection in terms of its form, but not in terms of its essence. Using the case study method, this paper illustrates how three different nations apply classical intelligence techniques to the modern environment of social media. This paper examines how China has utilized classical agent recruitment techniques through sites like LinkedIn, how Iran has used classical honey trap techniques through a combination of social media sites, and how Russia has employed the classical tactics of kompromat, forgery, agents of influence and front groups in its modern covert influence campaigns. -
Ruffley on Andrew and Mitrokhin, 'The Sword and the Shield: the Mitrokhin Archive and the Secret History of the KGB'
H-Russia Ruffley on Andrew and Mitrokhin, 'The Sword and the Shield: The Mitrokhin Archive and the Secret History of the KGB' Review published on Monday, April 1, 2002 Christopher Andrew, Vasili Mitrokhin. The Sword and the Shield: The Mitrokhin Archive and the Secret History of the KGB. New York: Basic Books, 1999. xvii + 700 pp. $32.50 (cloth), ISBN 978-0-465-00312-9. Reviewed by David L. Ruffley (Department of International Programs, United States Air Force Academy) Published on H-Russia (April, 2002) Diminishing Shadows: The Continued Unveiling of Soviet Intelligence Secrets Diminishing Shadows: The Continued Unveiling of Soviet Intelligence Secrets As the story of Vasili Mitrokhin's dramatic defection from the chaos of post-Soviet Russia in 1992 became known, it aroused Western expectations of a bonanza of spectacular revelations about the KGB and its predecessors. Mitrokhin's courageous compilation of secret files from the KGB's First Chief Directorate (foreign intelligence division) did indeed contain some original revelations, but in the main proved more valuable in filling in the details of cases that Western intelligence agencies had already known about or suspected for years. In the hands of veteran intelligence historian Christopher Andrew, the Mitrokhin archive as published here is a richly documented description of Soviet intelligence activity from the founding of the USSR through its demise and collapse. The book skillfully combines Mitrokhin's new material with information from earlier defector-based works as well as post-Soviet "collaborations" between the Russian intelligence services and western authors. This combination provides the clearest picture to date of Soviet intelligence activity, fleshing out many previously obscure details, confirming or contradicting many allegations and raising a few new issues of its own. -
Dissertation Prospectus 21 June 2006 The
Dissertation Prospectus 21 June 2006 The Politics of Denial and Apology: Why Some States Apologize for Mass Killings while Others Do Not1 Motivating Puzzles and Research Questions The Politics of Denial and Apology From the decimation of the Herero population in German Southwest Africa to the Holocaust to more contemporary cases such as the al Anfal campaign against Iraqi Kurds in the late 1980s and the mass killing of civilians that is now taking place in the Darfur region of Sudan, the norm against mass killing has been repeatedly violated throughout this century. However, instead of a uniform pattern of admission and apology in the wake of such violations, the actual responses of perpetrator states to their own past violations of the norm against mass killing have varied tremendously. At one extreme, the Turkish government has consistently denied the perpetration of genocide against Armenian citizens in the Ottoman Empire during World War I.2 On the other extreme, Germany has fully admitted responsibility and apologized for the Holocaust. In between these two extremes of apology and denial are states such as Japan, which has only partially admitted culpability in the ‘Rape of Nanjing.’3 In addition to this variation in perpetrator states’ responses to their own violations, a cursory glance at these states’ experiences reveals that a range of different (and sometimes inconsistent) factors has provided the impetus that has led to change in some of these states’ policies. For example, while regime change led to policies that acknowledged the events of the Cambodian genocide and the Rwandan genocide in those two countries, a similar case of regime change in Turkey shortly after the Armenian genocide led to a policy of denial. -
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On Dean W. Arnold's Writing . . . UNKNOWN EMPIRE Th E True Story of Mysterious Ethiopia and the Future Ark of Civilization “
On Dean W. Arnold’s writing . UNKNOWN EMPIRE T e True Story of Mysterious Ethiopia and the Future Ark of Civilization “I read it in three nights . .” “T is is an unusual and captivating book dealing with three major aspects of Ethiopian history and the country’s ancient religion. Dean W. Arnold’s scholarly and most enjoyable book sets about the task with great vigour. T e elegant lightness of the writing makes the reader want to know more about the country that is also known as ‘the cradle of humanity.’ T is is an oeuvre that will enrich our under- standing of one of Africa’s most formidable civilisations.” —Prince Asfa-Wossen Asserate, PhD Magdalene College, Cambridge, and Univ. of Frankfurt Great Nephew of Emperor Haile Selassie Imperial House of Ethiopia OLD MONEY, NEW SOUTH T e Spirit of Chattanooga “. chronicles the fascinating and little-known history of a unique place and tells the story of many of the great families that have shaped it. It was a story well worth telling, and one well worth reading.” —Jon Meacham, Editor, Newsweek Author, Pulitzer Prize winner . THE CHEROKEE PRINCES Mixed Marriages and Murders — Te True Unknown Story Behind the Trail of Tears “A page-turner.” —Gordon Wetmore, Chairman Portrait Society of America “Dean Arnold has a unique way of capturing the essence of an issue and communicating it through his clear but compelling style of writing.” —Bob Corker, United States Senator, 2006-2018 Former Chairman, Senate Foreign Relations Committee THE WIZARD AND THE LION (Screenplay on the friendship between J.