MAURITANIA Food Security Update February 2008 • Despite rapidly deteriorating food security conditions in Figure 1. Livelihood zones in Mauritania pastoral and western agropastoral areas (zones 4 and 5, Figure 1), and steep increases in food prices in markets around the country, food security in February is better than conditions from the same time last year. In other pastoral areas of zone 5 and parts of the farm belt, harvests of irrigated and flood‐recession crops (“walo” and bottomland crops) (zone 7) have helped bolster household grain availability (Figure 2). However, shocks such as a sudden increase in cereal prices and/or an even steeper drop in prices for small livestock, which is highly likely in the face of current market trends, could seriously weaken food security conditions between now and the end of this year’s rainy season. Households in zones dependent on rain‐fed crops and migratory herding (zones 6 and 4), as well as market‐ dependent households in urban slums and shantytowns on the outskirts of urban areas are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity as a result of such shocks. • Indeed, there are signs that food insecurity is increasing in Source: FEWS NET urban slums and peri‐urban areas due to sharp increases in Figure 2. Current food security conditions, first prices for basic food items and due to a lack of social quarter of 2008 (January through March) services. • Food access is deteriorating in rain‐fed farming areas in the southeast (zone 6), the northern Senegal River Valley (zone 7), and the central reaches of agropastoral areas (zone 5) due to mediocre harvests of rain‐fed grain crops for the 2007/08 season in the wake of poor rainfall conditions and shortages of seeds. Another factor hindering food access is the Government of Mali’s ban on grain exports since early December 2007. • The return of 24,000 Mauritanian refugees could also create food insecurity in receiving areas (zones 5 and 7) if the government, the World Food Program (WFP) and the U N High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) are unable to provide sufficient resources to assist this population group. Source: FEWS NET Overview of current food security conditions Food insecurity in February 2008 is lower than at this time last year in the southern Senegal River Valley (zone 7), southern agropastoral areas (zone 5), and the western and central reaches of rainfed farming areas (zone 6), where harvests of irrigated and flood‐recession crops have helped bolster household grain availability. However, given the mediocre FEWS NET Mauritania FEWS NET Washington Nouakchott 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the Agency for International Tel: 222 525 39 18 Washington DC 20006 Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] MAURITANIA Food Security Update February 2008 performance of both flood‐recession and irrigated Figure 3A. Trends in terms of trade in agropastoral areas crops, the situation in these areas could begin to deteriorate early in the second quarter of the year (April through June), once households have exhausted their grain stocks and are forced to rely on the market. At that point, emergency aid programs mounted by the Government and its food security partners will be needed to mitigate the effects of steadily rising costs for basic foodstuffs, as well as a sharp decline in prices for small livestock because of their increasingly poor body conditions and increased sales from pastoralists trying to limit their risk of losses. Animal sales are particularly important because it, along with income from labor migration, constitute major sources of income for rural households. Unit prices for rainfed sorghum, which had been Figure 3B. Trends in terms of trade in transhumant pastoral running 9.1 percent (or 20 UM) below the five‐year areas (the Mederdra market) average following the November harvest, have since rebounded, jumping from 120 to 150 UM between January and February. Prices for flood‐recession sorghum crops are holding steady at 200 UM/kg, even in the midst of the harvest season. Thus, the falling prices for small animals (which dropped by 15 to 20 percent between January and February) in agropastoral areas are a reflection both of mediocre grain harvests and of a deterioration in grazing and watering conditions. Since January, pastoralists with small herds of livestock have been increasing their sales of animals to cope, while those with large herds have already begun their seasonal migration. Many households in already food insecure poor urban areas (urban slums and outlying shantytowns) Source of data for Figures 3A and 3B: FEWS NET Mauritania are slipping into high or extreme levels of food insecurity. These declining conditions are due, in large part, to the increases seen in prices for imported foodstuffs, which grew at an even more rapid pace in February because of the increase in world market prices for both oil and grain. Households in this group normally resort to inferior quality foods and modify their eating habits, such as by skipping meals, to cope with increasing food insecurity. The Government and its food security partners are completing a joint survey of food insecurity problems in these areas. Markets, trade and food access Markets still had ample supplies of imported foodstuffs in February, though prices were running high. Small, temporary improvements in coarse grain availability in the wake of recent harvests of flood‐recession crops have also been noted. However, the ban on Malian grain exports (millet, sorghum and corn) and the slowdown in exports from Senegal (which have been limited to rice and corn this year, after the country’s poor 2007/2008 harvest,) are seriously restricting food access for households in zones 6, 7, and 5 which, without the benefit of these imports, are being forced to increase sales of animals to buy provisions at local markets, where prices are steadily climbing. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 MAURITANIA Food Security Update February 2008 Traditional patterns of trade have been disrupted in areas with relatively poor harvests of rain‐fed or flood‐recession crops as grain traders in these areas are abandoning local markets in favor of markets in other areas with better household purchasing power. For example, the Bassikounou and Adel Bagrou markets in Hodh Echargui and the Voulaniya and Modibougou markets in Hodh El Gharbi, which had been the main collection centers and relay markets for the interior of both these areas (mainly for markets in the regional capitals of Nema, Aïoun and Kiffa), are shipping more produce to markets in Tagant and Nouakchott. In Gorgol, grain traders in M’Bout department, which had been supplying villages in northern Guidimakha and western Assaba, have turned their sights on the Kaedi market which, until now, had been provisioned mainly with crops from Aftout, southern Guidimakha, Mali, and Senegal. The slowdown in Malian exports to Nouakchott could explain the increasingly limited supply of food and, as a result, the rise in prices in Hodh Echargui, Hodh El Gharbi, Assaba, Tagant and Gorgol. This same phenomenon in Brakna and Trarza is most likely due to the slowdown in Senegalese exports. Price cuts in livestock markets are mainly affecting only small livestock. Supplies were already quite sufficient in January at primary collection markets in the East (Adel Bagrou, Timbedra, Kobenni and Voulaniya). Now, this trend in supply has spread throughout agropastoral areas where, with mediocre harvests of flood‐recession crops, households are forced to step up sales of livestock, both to feed sedentary animals and to buy provisions for migratory animals as they prepare for their seasonal migration. Terms of trade for pastoralists have steadily deteriorated across the country (Figures 3A and 3B), and there is every indication that conditions will only get worse since, even if livestock prices rebound over the next few months, the rise in prices for imported food goods will be so sharp that they will negate any improvement in terms of trade for pastoralists. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 .