RUSSIAN GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY

FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHY, M.V. LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY

INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY, RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

No. 01 [v. 05] 2012 GEOGRAPHY ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINABILITY

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2 Russia University, Faculty ofGeography M.V. Lomonosov State Moscow Kasimov Nikolay S. Faculty ofScience, Czech Republic University, Masaryk Konečný Milan ofGeography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, A. Kolosov Vladimir of Geography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Kochurov BorisI. ofGeography,Institute Japan ofEducation, University Hokkaido Himiyama Yukio Association of Tunisian Geographers, Tunisia Hayder Adnane Russia Rosoboronexport, Gutenev Vladimir V. Chinese Academy ofSciences, China Guo Hua Tong ofEcologyandEvolution, Russia Institute Russian Academy ofSciences, Gunin Petr D. ofGeography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Gritsay Olga V. Faculty ofGeography, Russia M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow D’yakonov KirillN. Faculty ofGeography, Russia M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow Dobrolubov Sergey A. Geography andGeoecology, Russia Sankt-Petersburg State University, Faculty of Dmitriev Vasily V. ofPlymouth,University UK Brian Chalkley Geographie, Germany fur Institut Ludwig Universitat Munchen, Maximilians Baume Otfried, Pacific ofGeography, Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, PetrBaklanov Ya. ofdeserts, Institute Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Academy of Sciences, Babaev Agadzhan G. Faculty ofGeography, Russia. M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow S. Tikunov Vladimir EDITORS-IN-CHIEF: EDITORIAL BOARD (Secretary-General) Russia ofGeographyInstitute Russian Academy ofSciences KotlyakovM. Vladimir Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland Zilitinkevich Sergey S. ofEnvironmentalInstitute Geosciences, Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Viktorov Alexey S. Geographic Institute, Chile Military Vargas RodrigoBarriga et SciencesHumaines” France Université duHavre –UFR “Lettres Thorez Pierre of Geography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Tishkov A. Arkady of Geography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, OlgaN. Solomina Ukraine of Sciences, ofGeography Institute Academy National Ukrainean Rudenko Leonid G. Regional Studies, Poland University Warsaw, Faculty ofGeography and Andrzej Richling Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijic”, Serbia Academy Serbian ofSciencesandArts, Radovanovic Milan Mironenko Nikolay S. Faculty ofGeography, Azerbaijan State University,Baku Mamedov Ramiz Faculty ofGeography, Russia M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow Malkhazova Svetlana M. ofBehavioral Sciences,Institute USA ofColoradoUniversity atBoulder, O’Loughlin John The Netherlands Sciences, ofAppliedEarth Department of University Delft Technology Kroonenberg Salomon, Instituto diGeografia, Italy Instituto Universita degliStudidiRoma “La Sapienza”, Palagiano Cosimo, ofGeography,Institute Mexico National Autonomous ofMexico, University Palacio-Prieto Jose Faculty ofGeography, Russia. M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow Belgique Université Libre deBruxelles Vandermotten Christian 221.03.2012 10:05:06 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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Anatoly V.Anatoly Gavrilov, Kenji Yoshikawa, Vladimir E. Romanovsky O. Sergeev,Dmitry Nikolai N.Romanovskiy, GennadiyS.Tipenko, Sergey N.Buldovich, Alexey S.Victorov Ivan G.Savchuk Yury G.Chendev, АleksandrN.Petin, Anthony R.Lupo Sergey V.Sergey Pyankov, VladimirS.Tikunov Nikolay S.Mironenko, Tatyana Kolchugina Vladislav G.Polnikov Mikhail V. Shokurov, Yana V. VladimirV. Saprykina, Malinovsky, Vitaliy A.Ivanov, VladimirA.Dulov, Yu. Sergey Kuznetsov, F. Sergey Dotsenko, Tatyana I.Moiseenko, AndreyN.Sharov, Alexey A.Voinov, Alexandr D. Shalabodov Lachezar H.Filchev, Eugenia Roumenina K. GEOGRAPHY NEWS &REVIEWS SUSTAINABILITY ENVIRONMENT 3 CONTENTS RIVER’S BASIN RIVER’S ...... ON . . THE REGIME OF REGIONAL DISCHARGE AND ICING IN THE UPPER PART OF LENA THE INFLUENCE OF CHANGING CLIMATE AND GEOCRYOLOGICAL CONDITIONS MORPHOLOGY ...... FROMLANDSCAPE . METRICS .THE . POINT OF . . OFVIEW . MATHEMATICAL . . LANDSCAPE INTERNATIONALPASSENGER RAILWAY COMMUNICATION UKRAINE IN ...... 18 . . . INDICATORSAS SOILS CLIMATIC .OF . .CHANGES ...... 4 ...... WORKSHOPS OF THE INTERNATIONALOF THEWORKSHOPS ASSOCIATIONCARTOGRAPHIC ...... 120 ...... (FROM THE “DUTCHDISEASE” TOINNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT) ...... 112 ...... MODELEXPORT-ORIENTED OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA KILLERENCOUNTERING WAVESOF . ASSESSMENT . RISK . SEA BLACK .IN THE ...... 84 . . . LAKES EUROPEAN . . NORTH-EAST OF . THECASE . THE ...... 67 . . . LONG -TERM CHANGES IN THE LARGE LAKE ECOSYSTEMS UNDER POLLUTION: DATA) . CAUSED BY URANIUM MINING (USING MULTITEMPORAL HIGH RESOLUTION LANDSAT AND ASSESSMENT OF ABIOTICDETECTION STRESS OF CONIFEROUS LANDSCAPES ...... 52 ...... 41 ...... 30 . 221.03.2012 10:05:06 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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4 Columbia, MO 65211-7250; e-mail: [email protected] Columbia, MO65211-7250;e-mail: * same time, thesoilisarapidlychanging geographical andclimaticconditions. At the only ofcontemporary, butalsoofpastphysical- components. They containtherecords not considered oneofthemost informative environment, thesoilsare rightfully inthenatural Among thediverse objects Holocene, forest-steppe, steppe. chernozems. the increase inareas occupiedbyleached andsolonetzicchernozems,typical andto to thedecrease insoilareas occupiedby and ofreadily solublesaltscontributed meter ofthesoils. The leachingofcarbonates to thereductionofitscontent intheupper the profile chernozems ofautomorphic and the strengthening ofdehumificationover recurrence, climaticcyclic ledto age-long asareflectionofintra- of theXX century climatic phases, whichoccurred attheend to cool-moist The changefrom warm-dry approximately 4000yrBPwere reconstructed. the annualamountofprecipitation at steppebetween andforest-steppe and thepositionofboundary soil properties, at 4000yrBP. Usingdataonchangesof Late Holocenewet conditionsoccurred conditionsto the Holocene arid the Middle chernozems thetransitionfrom properties, are examined. According to unequal-age to different climaticchanges periodical the EastEuropean Plain andtheirrelation reaction ofchernozems inthecenter of 2 Yury G.Chendev 1 ABSTRACT. INTRODUCTION KEY WORDS: CHANGES SOILS AS INDICATORS OF CLIMATIC USA; University of Missouri; 302Anheuser-BuschNaturalResourcesUSA; University ofMissouri; Building, NationalResearch 308015,Belgorod, Belgorod StateRussia, Pobeda University; St.85; Corresponding author A numberofexamplesfor the chernozems, climate change, 1* , АleksandrN.Petin e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: 1 , Anthony R.Lupo number ofotherproblems andthesolution it may bepossibleto findasolutionto a new ways andapproaches to thisproblem seemsthat in finding 2008; andothers].It climatic dynamics?” [Bunyard, 2001;Lupo, dependence ordoesitoccurwithincyclic and “Is thischangesubordinated bytrend might thechangeinglobalclimate go?” following questions: whatdirection “In We willcontinuethe discussiononthe Climate..., 2008;Global..., 2000;andothers]. [Climate..., 2002; instrumental observations of butdetailedseries comparatively short, in paleoclimaticreconstructionsanda with newdata,reflecting “long” sequences years acquired inconnection newurgency scientists, thisproblem thelastfew during While thesehave beenlongdiscussedby change. one ofwhichistheproblem ofclimate problems, decisions, studies, andpolicy inlightofcurrent globalecologicalaspect environment. important This isextremely with theothercomponentsofnatural the many-sided interrelations ofsoils still remainsofinformation on apaucity geography, world contemporary In there 1976; Sokolov, etal., 1986;andothers]. Gennadiev, and 1990;Sokolov Targul’yan, 1983; [Aleksandrovskii, of soilproperties of soils, and “sensitivity” and “reflectivity” memory”, “urgent” and “relict”characteristics such conceptsas “soil-moment” and “soil- literature withsoils, inconnection arose to climate change. Therefore, inscientific in naturalconditionsand, inthefirstplace, system, which sensitively reactsto changes 2 221.03.2012 10:05:06 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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appropriateness for wideinterpretation ofthis However recently,1992] iswidelyknown. the 1983;Ivanov, [Aleksandrovskii, Sernander Holocene for EastEurope according to Blytt- ofthe periodization The natural-climatic forthe boundaries naturalandsoilzones. changesof which ledto thetime-spatial repeatedly theHolocene, changedduring Ivanov, thestudyregion, 1992].In climate 1983;Gennadiev,[Aleksandrovskii, 1990; Holocene –approximately 10000years ago and steppe beganto form intheEarly ofEastEuropean forest-steppeterritory soilcover withintheContemporary – – following objectives: assumedsolutionofthe The stated purpose with different periodicities. chernozems reactionsto climate change identification offorest-steppe andsteppe ofthispaperisThe mainpurpose Solovyov, 1989;andsomeothers]. andIsaev,[Ovechkin 1985;Savin, 1990; climate change indicators ofcontemporary fewer references onthestudyofsoilsas 1992; Jenny, 1941;andothers]. There are Henningsen, 2000;Gennadiev, 1990;Ivanov, 1997; Chendev, 2008;Climate..., 2009;Felix- 2005;Buoletal.,and Aleksandrovskaya, climate long-term changes[Aleksandrovskii toward theuseofsoilsinreconstructions of publications, many ofwhichare oriented ofclimate isreflectedvariations inanumber The role ofsoilsinthestudychronological of soilsasindicators ofclimate change. withathoroughmust beconnected study OBJECTIVES, AND METHODS DISCUSSION OF THE PROBLEM, 5

of chernozems dynamics. andareasclimate changesonproperties to discusstheinfluenceofshort-term reconstructions; inpaleoclimatic chernozems properties the effectiveness ofunequal-age using anumberofexamples, to show two largetwo waves oftemperature decrease the past100years showthepresence of both thesummerandwinter seasons for ofthetemperaturenatural fluctuations in theresearcher’s1891–1990. In opinion,the East European Plain (45°–55°N30°–50°E)for halfofthe located inthesouthern network, using thedataprovided byameteorological analyzed seasonalbehavior oftemperatures, rarely atpresent. L.V. [1992] Klimenko influence onsoilsandsoilcover isstudied there whose variations were short-term intheclimate background,secular variations can berevealed insoilprofiles. However, for inclimate, fluctuations term whosetracks consideronlylong- natural periodization ideasoftheHolocene The well-known questions are discussedinthispaper. of theLate Holocene. The answers to these and steppe thatoccurred atthebeginning of climaticborder forest-steppe between and identificationofthedistanceshift andtheLate Holocene theMiddle between chronological of theexact boundary Among thesequestions:thedetermination illuminated questions.number ofonlyweakly in theEastEuropean Plain, there remain a to evolution ofchernozems intheHolocene Chendev, 2009;Chendev, respect 2008].In and 2005;Aleksandrovskii Aleksandrovskaya, and [Aleksandrovskii the climate humidity degree andanincrease ofcontinentality inthe byareduction was characterized and theLate Holocene(last4000–3500yr) in conditionsofdry, in general, climate; oftemperaturealternation drops andrises Holocene (8000–4000(3500)yrBP)had climate. anddry a cool-cold The Middle by (10000–8000 yrBP)wascharacterized ideas, Holocene the Early to contemporary Early, andLate Middle, period. According better to usedivisionoftheHoloceneinto oftheEastEuropean Plain, itis central part the forest-steppe andsteppe zones ofthe of climate changeintheterritory periodical) (long- from thepointofviewage-long and Chendev, ourunderstanding, 2009].In 2005;Aleksandrovskii Aleksandrovskaya, open for and discussion[Aleksandrovskii scheme, originally created for Scandinavia, is 221.03.2012 10:05:06 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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6 East European Plain. chernozem soils, situated inthecenter ofthe ofourstudyare theThe mainsubjects 2000]. Plain [SazhinandKosina, agriculture EastEuropean withinthe southern climatic conditionsfor thedevelopment of worseningwill leadto asharp inthenatural ofthe1920s–1950s.similar to theperiod This moisture potential willoccurinamanner changes intheregime oftemperature- century, changesinclimate andtheconnected thefirsthalfofXXI suggested thatduring processeswind-erosion decreased. The authors of forms ofplantsappeared andtheactivity vegetation changedsharply. Hygrophilous water increased; thecompositionofnatural the chernozem zone, thelevel oftheground natural processes significantly changed:within increasing precipitation, ofmany thecharacter reached itsmaximuminthe1990s–2000s. With territory, theclimate steadily moistened and southeastofRussia’sthe extreme European From thebeginning ofthemiddle1950s, in regionssteppe ofEastEurope. anddry-steppe these occurred repeatedly intheordinary- which causedmore frequent droughts and rose,temperatures precipitation decreased, the middle1950s. thisepoch,global During became established, andthiscontinuedinto the1920s, regime anewatmospheric In exceeded climaticnorm. thelong-term 1920s, theannualamountofprecipitation atmosphere circulation epochofthe1890s– Hemisphere the during [2000], intheNorthern According to A.N.SazhinandO.V. Kosina weather withprecipitation 1992]. [Klimenko, latter result isreflected byanincrease incloudy season, negative anomaliesappeared. The appear more frequently, but,inthewarm positive anomaliesoftemperature beganto increased sharply, andinthecoldseason, the beginning activity ofthe1970s, cyclonic different climaticeffects. For example, since indifferentoccurring seasonscanleadto processesfinding thatsimilaratmospheric seasons. L.V. explainstheseby Klimenko temperature increases thewinter during 1970s–1980s); coincidentwiththemwere thesummertime(1920s–1930s and during the modern position. the modern zones with 4000yrBPand itscomparison thesteppebetween andtheforest steppe position identification ofclimaticboundary chronosequences applications wasthe oneofthemethods ofsoil this article, were studiesand here. usedinearlier In oftheHolocenedepositsandsoils spectra paleoclimatic indicators. Specifically, pollen other studiesbasedontheuseof were compared withthe conclusionsof of thepaleoclimaticreconstructions the examinationofsoilsasobjects of theadjacentmounds. The results of formed onthenaturaltopographic surface (background)of modern chernozems together withtheproperties properties oftheancientchernozemsa comparison effervescence. Additionally, themethod uses anddepthsof their humushorizon thickness with asubsequentcomparative analysisof covered mounds, byunequal-ageburial asthestudyofchernozemsbe described soil chronosequences. This methodcan wereproperties donebythemethodof on datatemporal changesofsoil Paleoclimatic based reconstructions climatic conditions, decreases. of chernozems, formed undermore dry growdepth ofeffervescence andthearea andthe the humushorizon thickness of climate) causestheopposite processes: moistening (during climate continentality climatic conditions, increase. Adecrease in of chernozems, for characteristic more arid decrease,of effervescence whilethearea andthedepth humus horizon thickness (strengthening ofclimate), the aridization an increase inclimaticcontinentality According to theexistingideas, with of climate change. (leached, typical,solonetzic)asthereflection different geneticgroups ofchernozems analyzed temporal changeintheareas of inthesoilprofile).of carbonates Also, we (depthoftheupperboundary effervescence anddepthof humus horizons thickness of chernozems were examined:their For climate change, thefollowing properties 221.03.2012 10:05:06 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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been dated by the radio-carbon method. been dated bytheradio-carbon from theHolocenedeposits;soilshave based ontheanalysisofpollenspectra 1A). The datafrom 1991]are [Spiridonova, obtained from [1991])(Fig. E.A.Spiridonova forest-steppe basin(data Don oftheriver natural zones withinsouthern boundaries ofchronological ofthe variation curve andthencorrelatedconstructed withthe (Fig.The graph ofthesoiltype 1B)was coordinates 49°–51°Nand35°–37°E. The studyregion isdelineated bythe from 5200yrBPto thepresent (Fig. 1). loams,loess carbonated for thetime-interval chernozems) formed on flat watersheds andon of thesteppe ofordinary zone (asubtype horizons (A1 +A1B)for thechernozems ofthehumus of changeinthethickness field studies, theauthorsproduced calculations Using literature dataandtheresults ofourown at20–30-yr-longconducted intervals. whichwere soilsurveys, and thelarge-scale thisdiscussion,we usedobservations In andsoilareas.changes ofsoilproperties our discussiononcausesofrelatively fast maps andliterature datawere thebasisof 1951–1980and1971–2000. periods These induced changeswere mapped for the climaticallyas anexample, short-term of chernozems. UsingtheBelgorod Region andareasXXI ontheproperties centuries) the endofXX –thebeginning ofthe climate change(forinfluence ofshort-term for different years) were usedto studythe repeated ofmaps (comparison cartography and Repeated measurements (observations) RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 7 Table 1. Changes in the morpho-genetic properties of typical chernozems within the East European Plain Plain European East the within chernozems typical of properties morpho-genetic the Table in 1. Changes Depth ofeff Depth hcns fА 1 16 .27.0±19 103.33±2.80 76.50 ±1.93 71.67±2.92 ofА1+А1В Thickness forest-steppe area during the last 4000 years, % of modern values (based on [Chendev, 2008]) on (based values modern %of years, 4000 last the during area forest-steppe Soil indexSoil evsec 50 .364.73±7.18 55.00±4.73 0 ervescence 4000 yrBP n =3 about the climatically induced shift ofthe about theclimaticallyinducedshift accordance withtheexistingideasIn chernozem area. This isreflected in Table 1. of theLate HolocenewithintheEastEurope forincrease, thefirsthalf wasalsoobserved soil profiles) asaconsequenceofhumidity depthin ofcarbonates the upperboundary andthegrowth of humus horizons thickness (anincrease inthe in thesoilcharacteristics European Plain. Atrend toward improvement forest-steppe zones withintheCentral East ofthesteppe and Holocene intheterritory considered asthebeginning oftheLate yr BP. Specifically, shouldbe thisboundary theseepochscorrespondsbetween to 4000 occurred. horizons thickness The boundary whichanincreaseduring inthehumus and theepochofclimate moistening, wasreduced,the humushorizons thickness which during epoch ofclimate aridization, presence large oftwo climaticepochs:the (Fig.variation reflects the clearly 1C) chronologicalhumus horizons thickness The smoothedrow ofthechernozems the north). coefficient valuesandadvanceofsteppes to inhydrothermal reduction (during aridization placeinthestagesofclimaticto take observed was adecrease intheirthickness of forest invasion to steppe). Then there hydrothermal episodes coefficient(during These were coincidentwithincreases inthe variations. the sameasonpollenspectra arechernozems humushorizon thickness, were discovered through changes inthe the beginning oftheLate Holocene, which Holoceneto theendofMiddle during As canbeseeninFig. 1,thebasicextrema 3500–3000 yrBP Chrono-interval

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8 contemporary values (B – empirical row, C – smoothed row (based on the data of [Aleksandrovskii, [Aleksandrovskii, of data the on (based row C–smoothed row, (B–empirical values contemporary (according to [Spiridonova, 1991]) (A), and the chronological variation of chernozems humus Fig. 1. Evolution of natural zones within southern forest-steppe of the river Don basin basin Don river the of forest-steppe southern within zones natural of 1. Evolution Fig. horizons (A1 + A1B) within the steppe zone of the Central East European Plain,% from Plain,% from European East Central the of zone (A1 +A1B) steppe horizons the within 1983; Aleksandrovskii and Aleksandrovskaya, 2005; Chendev, 2008; Ivanov, 1992] Ivanov, 2008; Chendev, 2005; Aleksandrovskaya, and 1983; Aleksandrovskii and the results of field studies of the authors) the of studies field of results the and 221.03.2012 10:05:06 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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from 10–15locationsthatare situated withina ofthehumusprofiles thickness mean arithmetic the characterizes Each pointofthetransects of theBelgorod region (archive information). soilsurvey from ofthelarge-scale thematerials chernozems were of contemporary generated properties The datafrom themorpho-genetic steppe chernozemsarid (Fig. I–III). 2,transects from amore humidforest-steppe to amore the watershed chernozems inthedirection for gradient ofthehumushorizons thickness of thecalculationspatialchange 4000 yrBP. The methodutilized here consisted forest-steppe zones existed atapproximately thesteppe between andthe of theboundary set ourgoalto where determine thelocation 1991],we 2005;Spiridonova, Aleksandrovskaya, and 1983;Aleksandrovskii [Aleksandrovskii, atthebeginning oftheLatezone Holocene oftheforest-steppe boundary southern 9 Fig. 2. Linear changes of the chernozems humus horizons (A1+A1B) thickness near the modern (A1+A1B) modern the near horizons humus thickness chernozems the of changes Linear 2. Fig. boundary between forest-steppe and steppe (the authors’ data) authors’ (the steppe and forest-steppe between boundary boundary offorest-steppeboundary andsteppe, 80 mm.Consequently, nearthecontemporary at theindicated distancedecreased by direction, theannualamount of precipitation the southeastern position.In contemporary ofits to thenorthwest found about112km the steppe zone, atthistime, couldbe 1),then,according(Table to ourcalculations, 72% ofthebackground values (modern) the forest-steppe zone wasequalto about of for paleochernozemspart inthesouthern 4000-yr-BP’s ofthehumusprofiles thickness fromvaries 18to the 31%(25%onaverage). If and decreases 100km forthickness every conditions, thevalueof contemporary As canbeseenfrom Fig. 2,under was accepted as100%. chernozems ofthenorthernmost The thickness from thepointofdetermination. radius of5km 221.03.2012 10:05:07 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 0 Belgorod Region created atdifferent time- oftheclimaticmaps forby acomparison the of theindicated climaticphasesisconfirmed andcool-wet. The presence –warm-dry cycle different helioclimatic phasesofshort-term corresponded to ofobservations The periods oftheKurskRegion (Fig.the territory 3). of theBelgorod Region, andoneiswithin Two oftheseplotsare located in theterritory plots.based ontheexampleofthree key steppe chernozems have beenexamined andareas offorest-change ontheproperties climate The influenceoftheshort-term 430–450 mm. this time, couldhave beenapproximately precipitation); theannualprecipitation, at (probably,than contemporary 80 mmless the climate of4000yrBPwasmore arid Fig. 3. The location of the study plots used to assess the short-term periodic climate change change climate periodic short-term the assess to used plots study the of location The 3. Fig. Plots: 1 – “Streletskaya Step”; 2 – “Yur’evka”; 3 – “Octyabr’skii” (plots 1and2areshown nottoPlots: Step”; 1–“Streletskaya (plots scale); 2–“Yur’evka”; 3–“Octyabr’skii” influence on soils and soil cover dynamics. dynamics. cover soil and soils on influence 4 – administrative border of the Belgorod Region 4 –administrative oftheBelgorod border has beendiscovered, from theperiod during plotNo.Preserve 2;key (Table 1onFig. 3).As virgin Steppe chernozems oftheStreletskaya in thehumuscontent bothinarableand in [1984] establishedthatthere wasareduction etal. for theKurskRegion, L.A.Bashkakova According dataobtained to theobserved (Fig.July isotherms 4). andto thesouthof isotherms January ofthe towas reflected thenorth bytheshift less continentaltemperature regime. This precipitation andtheevolution toward a increasea distinct intheannualamountof oftheXX century,last quarter there were (1951–1980) showedyear that,for period thirty- theearlier climatic indicesduring 1971–2000, withthemapsthatcharacterize which reflectaverage climaticindicesduring points (Fig. 4). ofthemaps,The comparison 221.03.2012 10:05:09 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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Fig. 4. Climatic indices of the Belgorod Region for the periods 1951–1980 and 1971–2000 (adapted from the data of [Climatic..., 1982; Grigoryev and Krymskaya, 2005]) 221.03.2012 10:05:10 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 2 for are thispurpose 1:10000 scalesoilmaps procedures butfor different periods. Suitable discussed above, compiledthrough identical soilmaps, asby analysisoflarge-scale on soilsandthesoilcover canbestudied climate changes The influenceofshort-term et al., 1984]. humification oforganic matter [Bashkakova the increase inhumusmineralizationabove toward leachingofexchangeable basesand thiscase, moved thedynamicequilibrium In of the1960sandbeginning ofthe1970s. climate influence, whichbegunattheend result ofmoistening oftherecent cycle vegetation. These changesoccurred asa conditions ofsoilformation andnature of chernozems isassociated withchangesin meadow-steppebases inautomorphic the contents ofhumusandexchangeable Researchers nowexplainthatthereductionof steppe withoutgrass 2). mowing(Table land inI927waseven lessthanundervirgin ofdehumificationinthearable intensity depth of100cm.For thestudyperiod, the inthesoilprofilesteppe to wasoccurring a 1958 to 1981,dehumificationundervirgin Depth. cm 010362122 . .42.3 2.84 2.0 2.28 2.1 3.6 90–100 09 . . .02230 2.5 3.3 4.0 3.08 4.2 3.23 4.6 3.69 2.2 6.0 4.03 2.6 6.5 4.62 2.8 6.5 2.60 5.02 3.3 2.98 5.58 4.3 3.72 6.76 2.5 4.8 4.29 3.1 5.4 4.95 3.2 6.4 3.7 6.03 3.8 4.4 6.57 4.1 5.2 7.72 80–90 4.9 5.7 70–80 5.7 6.0 60–70 6.7 6.8 50–60 7.5 40–50 8.5 30–40 20–30 10–20 –0857187 . .87.2 7.88 7.3 8.76 7.1 8.5 5–10 Table Humus 2. content (% at mass of soil) in arable chernozems and virgin of typical northern – . . 11 . 11 8.7 11.12 9.1 11.17 7.1 8.8 0–5 forest-steppe observed in diff in observed forest-steppe rbeln ic 97Vri tpeMown steppe Virgin steppe Arable landsince 1927 1963 19811958 erent periods (based on data [Bashkakova et al., 1984]) al., et [Bashkakova data on (based periods erent caused byclimaticdynamics. For example, it changes have been,inmany respects, ispossibleto assume thatthediscoveredIt chernozems (plot “Yur’evka”, Fig. 5). a reductionoftheareas withsolonetzic Furthermore, was theobvioustendency the areachernozems decreased. oftypical chernozems generallyincreased while period, thearea ofleached contemporary 1996–2001 differ significantlythe (Fig. 5).In chernozems onthemapsof1970–1976 and andleached the areas occupiedbytypical As hasbeenshowninthecomparative analysis, plot (key “Octyabr’skii”, Fig. 3). oftheBelgorodBelgorod Region District of thestate farm “Dmitrotaranovskiy” inthe same analysiswasdonewithintheterritory “Yur’evka”, Fig. 3).Also, in1976and1996,the oftheBelgorod plot RegionDistrict (key inthe state farm “Stepnoe” intheGubkin ofthe in 1970and2001withintheterritory spatial analysisofthesoilcover conditions example, we outthetemporal- have carried atdifferent times-points.scale soilsurveys For createdof agricultural enterprises bylarge- 221.03.2012 10:05:12 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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typical orleached(Fig.typical 5). solonetzic chernozems into chernozems leached chernozems, and, probably, of chernozemstransformation into oftypical dynamic(years to decades)evolutionary was oneofthemainreasons for therapid ouropinion,thisprocessleaching ofsoils. In with theabsenceofsoilfreezing couldinitiate precipitation intheform ofwet snoworrain ofwinter thaws, theperiods that during persisted onlyfor 2–4weeks. We considered and only attheendofwinter periods the steady snowcover frequently appeared from the1990sto thebeginning ofthe2000s, meteorological dataintheBelgorod Region thaws increased. According to theobserved winter. of thisperiod, thefrequency During been increased moistening oftheclimate in oftheXX century,the lastquarter there has According to L. V. [1992],during Klimenko precipitation grew substantially(Fig. 4). Region 1971–2000,thetotal annual during oftheBelgorod thatintheterritory is known 1 plots “Yur’evka” (A) and “Octyabr’skii” (B) for different soil surveys periods (based on the data from from data the on (based periods surveys soil different (B) for “Octyabr’skii” (A)and “Yur’evka” plots 3 Fig. 5. Orographic maps (left figures, absolute heights are indicated in m) and the soil cover of key of cover soil the m) in and indicated are heights absolute figures, (left maps 5.Orographic Fig. [Soils..., 1976; Soils..., 1996; Soils..., 1970; Soils..., 2001]) 1970; Soils..., Soils..., 1996; 1976; Soils..., [Soils..., boundary of boundary “steppe –forest-steppe», the position.Nearthe of itscontemporary approximately to thenorthwest 100–120km steppebetween andforest-steppe was was 4000years. The 4000-yr-BP boundary the Late Holocenewithinthestudyterritory took placenear4000yrBP. The durationof Transition from to themoistepochs thearid ismoist. andthecontemporary was arid oftheperiod part Holocene: theearlier chernozems inthesecond-half ofthe steppe inautomorphic horizons thicknesses with respectto changesinthehumus the climaticprocesses have beenrevealed epochs withtheopposingtendencies in Plain, theexistence large oftwo climatic For oftheCentral East-European theterritory climatic changes. indicators andshort-term ofbothlong-term established thatchernozems are sensitive thecourseofthisresearch,In ithasbeen CONCLUSIONS 221.03.2012 10:05:12 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 4 7. Chendev, 7. Yu.G. (2008)Evolution of Forest-Steppe Soils Within theCentral RussianUpland Bunyard, P. 6. (2001) The Truth aboutClimate Change. Ecologist Report, Vol. 31,No. 9,4–11. 5. Buol, S.W., F.D. Hole, andR.J. R.J. Southard McCracken, (1997)SoilGenesisandClassifica- 4. L.A.,F.F.Bashkakova, Topol’skii, etal. (1984)Research ofPhysical Chemical Properties of A.L.and Aleksandrovskii, Yu.G.3. Chendev(2009)ClimaticEvolution ofSoilswithintheGreat (2005)Evolution ofSoilandtheGeographi- A.L.andE.I.Aleksandrovskaya Aleksandrovskii, 2. A.L.(1983)Evolution ofSoilsontheEastEuropeanAleksandrovskii, Plain theHolo- during 1. lands for few years thenext anddecades of plansfor theeconomic managementof should beconsidered inthedevelopment repetitivethese changesare cyclically events leached chernozems. that The discovery to theincrease intheareas occupiedby andsolonetzicchernozems andtypical to thedecrease intheareas occupiedby and ofreadily solublesaltscontributed meter ofsoils. The leachingofcarbonates reduction ofhumuscontent intheupper chernozemsof automorphic andto the of thedehumificationinprofiles moistening to contributed strengthening oftheXX century,the lastquarter climate andareas ofchernozem properties soils. In wasreflected noticeablyinthecycles helioclimatic wet phasesinsidetheage-long to thecool- The changefrom thewarm-dry annual sum). values (16%ofthemodern average, 80mmlower thancontemporary annual amountsofprecipitation were, on REFERENCES during theHolocene.during Moscow, GEOS,212pp. [inRussian]. tion, 4thEdition.IowaState Univ. Press, Ames, IA, 483pp. Russian]. nozem preserve” In Geographical StudyoftheKMA Regions”“The pp. 66-76.[in Kursk, Soils UnderCultivation and Virgin Vegetation basedontheExampleofCentral Cher- tember 2009” Belgorod, pp. 162–169. [inRussian]. Environment: Proceedings ScientificSeminar, oftheInternational Belgorod, 16–19Sep- Hemisphere theHolocene. during In Plains ofthe Northern “Climate Change, Soils, and cal Environment. 223pp. Moscow, [inRussian]. Nauka, cene. 150pp. Moscow, [inRussian]. Nauka, recurrence. as areflectionofclimaticintra-secularcyclic [Chendev andPetin, 2009;Sauer, etal., 2009] regions, moisture theatmospheric increased indicated withinthetwo the XX century 2008; andreferences within].Attheendof Ruhe, 1974; Woodhouse andOverpeck, and Chendev, 2009;Denniston etal. 2000; [Aleksandrovskii than thecontemporary arid wasmorethe climate oftheseterritories Holocene, theMiddle climate variations. In change iscurrently subordinate to regular center oftheEastEuropean Plain, climate oftheUSACentral Plains andthe part ofthenortheastern data, intheterritories of thesoilcover. According to available ofsoilsand they influencetheproperties climate changesandofhow short-term differences inthenature ofprolonged and for and theunderstandingofsimilarities Hemisphere the continentsofNorthern scientific research of withintheterritories isfeasible jointinternational to conduct It  221.03.2012 10:05:13 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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23. Ruhe,23. R.V. (1974)HoloceneEnvironment United inMidwestern andSoilGeomorphology 22. S.V.Ovechkin and V.A. Isaev(1985)Periodic Additional Underground asa Moistening 21. Lupo, A.R.(2008)Anthropogenic Global Warming: Point aSkeptical of View. of Journal 20. L.V.Klimenko, (1992) Variations of Temperatures Part oftheUSSR withinSouthern Jenny,19. H.(1941)Factors ofSoilFormation. New McGraw-Hill, York, NY, 281pp. 18. Ivanov, I.V. (1992)Evolution ofSoilstheSteppe Zone theHolocene. during Moscow, Grigoryev, G.N.,O.V. (2005)ClimaticConditions. In Atlas Kryimskaya 17. “The ‘Natural Resources Global 16. Variations oftheEnvironment (2000)Moscow, Nauchnyii Mir, 304pp. [inRussian]. 15. Gennadiev, and A.N.(1990)Soils Moscow, ofDevelopment. Time: Models 229p. Felix-Henningsen, P.14. (2000)Paleosoils ofPleistocene ofPaleomonsoon DunesasIndicators 13. Denniston, R.F., L.A.Gonzalez, Y. Reagan,andH.Recelli-Snyder Asmerom, (2000) M.K. 12. theAtlasofBelgorodClimatic Map. Region In (1982)ed. byN.V. Moscow, pp. Klukin. 10. 11. Climate Variability thePast during andExtremes 100 Years. (2008) Vol. 33.Advances in 10. 9. ConceptsClimate intheEnvironment Change:Critical (2002) Vol. 2.NaturalForcing Fac- Chendev, 8. Yu.G. on andA.N.Petin Influence (2009)Climate andIts ChangeintheXX Century 1 5 States. Quaternary Research, 4,No.States. 4,487–495. Quaternary pp. 56–65.[inRussian]. Factor ofSoilCover Evolution. In QuestionsofHydrology Moscow, inSoilFertility», “The Medicine, 105:2,22–26. Missouri 25–30 [inRussian]. European Territory the1891–1990. during Un-ta.Ser.Vestnik Mosk. 5.Geografiya, No. 1, 143pp. [inRussian]. Nauka, and Ecological State oftheBelgorod Region”. Belgorod. [inRussian]. [in Russian]. Events intheSaharaofEastNiger. Catena, 41,No. 1–3,43–60. International, Vol.USA. Quaternary 67,No. 1,21–27. Isotopic RecordsSpeleothem Carbon ofHoloceneEnvironments Highlands, intheOzark [in Russian]. Global ChangeResearch, ed. byBrϋnnimanS.etal. Springer, 361p. Berlin, [in Russian]. tific Seminar, Belgorod, 16–19September 2009,ed. by Yu. Chendev. Belgorod, 177pp. Climate Change,Soils, and Routledge, London, 407p. tors for Climate Changeon Timescales 10-1to 105 Years, ed. byChambersF., M. Ogle Scientific Seminar, Belgorod, 16–19September 2009” Belgorod, pp. 147–155.[inRussian]. the SoilCover. In “Climate Change, Soils, andEnvironment: Proceedings oftheInternational Environment (2009)Proceedings Scien- oftheInternational 221.03.2012 13:05:35 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 6 33. Solovyov, andI.V.32. Sokolov, A.L.Aleksandrovskii, I.A., N.A. Karavaeva, (1986)Evolution ofSoils: Ivanov 31. Sokolov, I.A.and V.O. Targul’yan ofSoilandEnvironment: (1976) Interaction Soil-Memory Soils oftheState Farm 30. “Stepnoe”, Belgorod Region, District, andRecommendations Gubkin Soils oftheState Farm 29. “Stepnoe”, Belgorod Region, District, andRecommendations Gubkin 28. Soils oftheState Farm Belgorod Belgorod Region,“Dmitrotaranovskii», District, and 27. Soils oftheState Farm Belgorod Belgorod Region,“Dmitrotaranovskii», District, and Sazhin, A.N.andO.V. Climatic 26. (2000Contemporary Kozina Tendencies and Their Reflection Savin, I.Yu.25. inGeography. (1990)Candidate's Dissertation Moscow, 300pp. [inRussian]. 24. 35. Woodhouse,35. C.A. andJ.T. (1998)2000 yearsintheCentral ofdrought Overpeck variability 34. E.A.(1991)Evolution ofthePlantSpiridonova, Cover BasinintheLate River intheDon of theUSSR”. Pushchino, pp. 5–22.[inRussian]. Concepts and Terms In oftheDevelopment). (Experience Evolution andAge ofSoils “The NaukSSSR,pp.Akad. 150–164.[inRussian]. In and Soil-Moment. oftheNaturalEnvironment” StudyandManagement “The Moscow, on (2001)Belgorod,Their Management 78pp. [inRussian]. on (1970) Their Management Voronezh, 81pp. [inRussian]. Recommendations on (1996)Belgorod,Their Management 76pp. [inRussian]. Recommendations on (1976)Belgorod,Their Management 80pp. [inRussian]. Petersburg, pp. 105–106.[inRussian]. Policy): Transactions ofXIcongress oftheRussianGeographic Society», Vol. 5.Saint- the Surrounding Nature, oftheGeographical Environment theDynamics (Nature, Society, at theRegional Level (onExampleofLower Volga Region). In of ScientificDiscovery “The pp. 162–169. ScientificSeminar,of International Belgorod, 16–19September 2009”. Belgorod, (USA) from 1972until2008.In “Climate Change, Soils, andEnvironment: Proceedings Sauer, T.J., C.L.Burras, and Yu.G. Chendev United States. Bull. Amer. Soc., Met. 79,pp. 2693–2714. 221pp. [inRussian]. Nauka, Moscow: Pleistocene-Holocene. 1989,Pushchino”January Moscow Evolution ofSoilsandSoilCover: All-UnionConferenceTheses ofReports, 10–12 the Chernozem Zone oftheUSSREuropean Part. In Anthropogenic andNatural “The I.N. (1989) On the Question of Modern Ev I.N. (1989)OntheQuestionofModern – Pushchino, pp. 257–259. [inRussian]. (2009) Dynamics ofForests(2009) Dynamics Iowa withinEastern olution of the Soil Coverwithin olution oftheSoil 221.03.2012 10:05:13 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 7 was recently theeditor ofabookon tropical meteorology. for non-peerreviewedthan 50articles publications, 200conference andnearly papers. He over inhisareas 60peer-reviewed ofresearch,author orco-author articles journal more and textbooks. geomorphology, andhydrology. More than370scientificworks, including20monographs Fields ofhisscientificinterests«Eco-Mir». are physical geography, environmental geography, diplomasofBelgorodturn State «BestScientist»andNationalEcological University Premium books.More than100scientificpublicationsandtext ofmany complexsoil-archaeologicaland othercountries. Heisaparticipant expeditions. archaeological pedology. Heexecuted scientificinvestigations inmany regions ofRussia Anthony R. Aleksandr N.Petin Yury G.Chendev on Climate Change) report. Dr.on Climate Change)report. Lupo haspublishedeitherasan Panel International andtheNIPCC Reports, (Non-governmental PanelIntergovernmental Assessment onClimate Change(IPCC) reviewer authorto the and/orcontributing an expert Academy of SciencesinMoscow. Additionally, as hehasserved for Physics Institute Atmospheric oftheRussian A.M. Obukhov thesummerof2004,studyingclimate changeatthe during dynamics, andclimate change. Hewas a Fulbright Scholar dynamics, atmospheric climatein theareas oflarge-scale research His hasbeen ofMissouri. attheUniversity Department oftheSoil,chairman Environmental, Sciences andAtmospheric He hasbeenrewarded bymany diplomasanddeeds, intheir (2007). ofRussiaintheXXISustainable Development Century» Natural Resources andProtection ofEnvironment –Strategy of Competition ofScientific Works managementof «Rational ofUniversities. LaureateConsortium oftheAll-Russian ofCoordinated Member Council ofBelorussia-Russia-Ukraine Association ofAcademiesInternational ofSciences. A.Petin is Unified Council onfundamentalgeographic problems at Russian Academy ofNaturalSciences. of HeisalsoMember Research Belgorod State University. Corresponding of Member professor, ofNational ofGeologic-Geographical faculty Dean evolution andgeography ofsoils, geography historical and University, theUSA.Fields are genesis, ofhisscientificactivity ofAgronomy,Russia», executed attheDepartment IowaState Central Plains, USAandCentralNortheast Russian Upland, in Landscapes-AnalogueswithintheForest-Steppe Zone: «Agrotechnogenic2008, project Evolution ofGray Forest Soils Education Program, DDFFoundation, 2001).Fulbright scholarof in 1985.Soros Associate Professor Soros Science (International Graduated from State (Faculty University Moscow ofGeography) Land Cadastre, NationalResearch Belgorod State University. ofNaturalResources and Management Head ofDepartment Lupo is aprofessor sciencesand ofatmospheric – doctor ofgeographical –doctor sciences(Dr. Sci.), – doctor ofgeographical –doctor sciences(Dr. Sci.), 221.03.2012 10:05:14 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 8 station-by-station trafficof international The research isbasedonpublicdata the railway network’s development. relations, formed inthepreceding of periods present-day routes are the “relics” ofearlier determined. is strictly That iswhy many railway thecoursingofwhich carriages, unlike far asthechoiceofroute isconcerned substantial funding, they are more mobileas the contrary, airandbus traffic donotneed infrastructure. On transport entire necessary countries,two butalsotheproper state ofthe not onlycoordination oftrainroutes between for itrequires passengerservice, international of kind isthemostinertial stock –isneeded. It infrastructure –railway equipmentandrolling expensive transport because itsfunctioning oftransport and spaceamongallkinds isthemoststableintime transport Railway history. geo-economy,polarization, geopolitics, geo- metropolization, communication ofUkraine, words Key cities, especiallywithMoscow. withRussian passengerservice international cities are predominantly by connected Ukrainian to theeffect inertia, ofhistorical ranthrough thecountry.carriages Owing passengertrainsand76direct international 2007,139 ofthiscommunication.In terminus higher istheadministrative rankofthecity- passengercommunication,the international from of astateseparates –object Ukraine Abstract. [email protected] e-mail: Kyiv ofUkraine, ofSciences (Ukraine), ofResearch inHuman Geography,Department ofGeography, Institute National Ivan G.Savchuk STATISTICS INTRODUCTION COMMUNICATION IN UKRAINE INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER RAILWAY The longerthedistancethat : international passengerrailway: international AS available ontheofficialwebsitecarriages of passenger railway trainsandthrough equipment, butalsoonthe time spenton of therolling stock andstation railway it dependsnotonlyonthe technical state However thespeedoftrainsisessentialand parameters andweight oftheluggageetc.). inthe notablerestrictions less comfort, and significant drawbacks (biggerfees, (the speediermovement inspaceandtime) traffic – national communication–motor andair ofpassengerinter- Alternative kinds relations migration). andinternational personal possiblestableinternational makes ofcommunication (the presence ofsuchkind are located)carriages andsocio-communicative passengertrainsandthrough international regions, stationsofthe inwhichtheterminal the between trade ofthecountries, particularly inforeign economic(theparticipation country), relations development ofthe for thepolicy offoreign symbolic(theexpediency functions: processes. outthefollowing Thus, itcarries bypolitical,determined economic, andsocial of thestate’s foreign andisalso policy tosubjected regulation withintheframework passengerrailway trafficis International traffic.transit trainsandthrough carriages of with theexception ofthecharacteristic or summerpassengertrainsandcarriages, exclusively, anddoesnotdiscusstemporary running according to winter schedule passenger trainsandthrough carriages 10.01.2007. The authoranalysesinternational OF RESEARCH THEORY AND METHODOLOGY Ukrzaliznytsia http://www.uz.gov.uaUkrzaliznytsia possess both certain advantages possess bothcertain asof 221.03.2012 10:05:14 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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this effect manifests itselfvividlyinthemost ofstatestructure power. Nowonder that isbased onthecentralized territory. It and politicalspaceonthe subordinated towards acapital, which forms economic prevalence movement ofcentripetal of spatialmanifestation, implyingthe The courses. passengertrains’stations oftheinternational the border istheconsequenceof effect be. It countries, themore expressed willthe relations theneighboring between more strainedare politicalandeconomic them[Kunth,2002,р.23]. between The resultcountries indrasticcutthetrade technical documentationofvarious Substantial differences incustoms and restraining railway communication. The points onthestate border. andcustoms control atthecheck passport of the country ( of thecountry potential predominantly inthemaincities concentration ofhumanandeconomic To a great bythe itisdetermined extent their affected areas indifferent countries. and thecities-terminuses ties between ofexistenceopinion, to ofstrong thefact trains ofseveral state borders testifies, inour The crossing passenger byinternational are stillfunctioning. border lines, many trainroutes oftheearlier and theemergence and/orchangeofstate theformation ofnewstatesnotwithstanding examples oftheeffect’s manifestation. Thus, isoneof thegood railway construction [Blij&Muller, need to recover ofthecapitalspentonthem ofinfrastructure, bythe determined objects and objects unidirectional useofindustrial relations –long-term in socio-economic manifestation effect oftheneighborhood the largely impacts effect inertia ofhistorical themdeclines. between interaction The points, the certain of distancebetween 1 9 1999 capital effect city neighborhood effect– , р.128],whichmainlyare theterminal border effect 2004, p. 272].Capital-intensive metropolis effect is an important factor isanimportant hasasimilarmechanism with theexpansion ) [ Benko, most important part, asaresult of part, most important play the state, outskirts littoral southern regionsAmong theperipheral ofsucha Legrand ( to itsoutskirts spreading from thecapitalofbigstate the emergence ofaradialrailway network ofthestate. on theperiphery This ledto centers ofseparate privileged functioning of directcommunication,thealternative it sanctioned,inthecaseofimpossibility communication;besides,out international latter hadtheevidentprerogative to carry the issuesisdealtwithincapital. The Empire andtheUSSR),where thebulkof centralized (suchwere countries theRussian of theadjoiningeconomiccenters [ regions theperipheral which liesbetween developed, in to of tunneleffect withthemetropolis effect leads metropolises only.connecting The combination for theyrunthrough, as they serve territory have on nosignificant economicimpact the trains astransitonly. thiscaserailway lines In effect flows pass, andnotonlyrunthrough ( ofwhich traffic states, through theterritory theadministrativebetween bodiesofthe in casewhenthere iseconomicinteraction territory economic development ofacertain onthe cooperation hasapositive impact ofinternationalwithin theframework The trafficofforeign passengersandcargo trade.out ofmaritime summertimeandalsoforduring carrying the capital’s) inhabitantsinsea-sideholidays satisfy theneedoflatter’s (andmainly regions withthecentralregions inorder to Direct railway routes are such laidto connect climatic conditions)[Brunet,1990,р.19]. economy intheregions withfavorable effect counted the number and frequency ofthe counted thenumberandfrequency systematized byrailroad hauls. Then we hasbeentrains andthrough carriages passenger schedule of international Official 1993, pр.121–122]. Morvan’s effect ). In thelatter caseonecanviewsuch ). In (theconcentrationofpopulationand ) [Guigou, 1993,p. 16–20]. the economicsense, territory, – the emergence of a poorly –theemergence ofapoorly theoretical modelótoilede Brunet tunnel SSS 221.03.2012 10:05:14 1 1 , . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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2 0 potential passengerrailway ininternational doesnotfullyexploitits existing Ukraine mainly represented. is by whichtherail-freight ofthecountry prefabricated productsoftheCIScountries, ofraw and materials markets on export explained byfavorable economicsituation traffic. To canbe alarge thefact extent andtransitrail-freight the volumes ofexport to increase annually allowed the country Statistics–Synopsis,USSR [Railway 2009] thebreak after downofthe by Ukraine tracks together inherited withrolling stock, ofstationsand network biggest intheworld economies. The exploitationofonethe foris strategically national important communicationintheCIScountries Railway competitive advantages. relations,international whichfacilitates their ofthesecitiesinthesystem of accessibility transport willletusdetermine of thestate. It of trains, especiallyinthemainmetropolises stationsoftheroutesterminal ofsuchkinds should singleoutthecities, whichare the nication for theregions ofacountry, one passengerrailwayinternational commu- of order toIn understandtheimportance ofanotherstate. other –ontheterritory andthe ofUkraine, stations intheterritory –withoneoftheterminal makeup of internal 3) ofthethird country; territory different stops onthe states andmaking thelocalitiesof 2) transit–connecting of anotherstate; state and passing withoutstops theterritory thelocalitiesofone 1) passing–connecting passingthrough Ukraine: carriages passengertrainsanddirectinternational We have of singledoutsuchtypes each ofthehaulsandbyrailway stations. runs perweek oftraffic)by (theintensity TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE GENERAL TENDENCIES OF RAILWAY 1000 km and Lviv –respectively, per 60.2and58.8km located borderdiametrically regions, Donetsk intwo concentration oftherailway network pass. railway Maximum corridors transport andthree outoftencorridors European RCO railway sixoutofthirteen territory communication, althoughthrough its railway transport carried 426blnpeople carried railway transport as international. That iswhy theUkrainian volumes ofpassengertraffic, aswell internal directlyaffects its inUkraine transport The present-day state oftherailway isimpossible.county’s railway transport ofthe development functioning andnormal purchased! [Petrenko, 2010,p. 53]),further stock (in2009onlyfour locomotives were that withouthighinvestments into rolling 2010, pp. 39–40]. This dataallowusto state of whichconstituted 26.8years [Serhiienko, them were inuse, theaverage operatingage 2007,2008],in2009,only7.3thsof Ukraine had beenexploited of [Statisticalyearbook in2000,9.0thsofpassengercarriages If isconstantlydecreasing.passenger carriages [Petrenko, 2010,p. 53]. That iswhy thefleetof of diesellocomotives wasover” inUkraine locomotives,line electric and92percent 89percentofmain- cent offreight stock, 71per 83 percentofpassengercarriages, the beginning of2010,theoperatinglife of freight traffic. As Е.А.Petrenko notes, “by volumescrisis ofpassengerandcargo rail- rolling stock inhibitsthereturn to thepre- oftheexploited level ofamortization High borderland..., 2009,pp.Ukrainian 145–147]. use ofthetrunks’ [Russian- capacity carrying railway tracks, andfull length ofpublicservice fixed assets, reduction oftheoperational growth: depreciationfurther ofthebranch’s hinder suchfactors 2009]. Nevertheless, S rail-freight Statistics– traffic[Railway and thevolumes ofpassengerandcargo regard to thedevelopment ofrailway network remains leadersin oneoftheworld Ukraine passenger transitinUkraine. facilitating thedevelopment ofinternational factor 2009, 2010,p. 236]–isanimportant 2 [Statistical yearbook of Ukraine ofUkraine [Statisticalyearbook ynopsis, 221.03.2012 10:05:15 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 Fig. 1. Traffic of transit international passenger railway trains and direct carriages, passing through the territory of Ukraine (as of 01.01.2007) . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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2 2 Europe. Thus, about Europe. Thus, ofCentralto andEastern thecountries territory. Trains mainlyproceed from Russia ofthe country’s and crosses thebiggerpart isdirected predominantly westward Ukraine Transit railway communicationof international average exchange2009); Official rate for UAH]). (2005– services ofexport-import [Dynamic railways (calculated by by theUkrainian ofpassengertraffic benefit gainedbyallkinds 2008, pp. 43,173]),i.e., 41.80percentofthetotal andRussia..., ofUkraine transport 2009); Rail (2005– services ofexport-import [Dynamics 2009 brought 280.56blnUSD(calculated by in passengerservices ofinternational Export company. isanexport-oriented Ukrzaliznytsia allows usto state thatAS transportation, passenger increase oftherate oflong-distance growth oftheseindices, together withthe andRussia...,2008,pp. 43, 173]).Stable Ukraine of exchange transport rate ofhrivnya; Rail average (2005–2009);Official services import ofexport- 2.2 times(calculated by[Dynamics costgrew 4.4 timesandfreight transportation increased ofrailway passengerservice export of2000–2009,thecost theperiod 7]. Over andRussia...,2008,p. ofUkraine transport [Rail traffic indirectandmixed communication” due to ( about 60percentofitsfreight turn-over ofthecountry railway transport “makes up Ukrzaliznytsia one ofthemaineconomicprofiles ofAS passenger railway communicationis are goodreasons to say thatinternational 2009,2010,p. 236]). of Ukraine Thus, there per cent(calculated by[Statisticalyearbook of Ukraine’s independencefrom 27.5to 47.7 increased theperiod during transportation passenger inlong-distance railway transport 1974, 1975,p. 347].However, theshare of SSRin National economy oftheUkrainian 2009, 2010,p. 236;statistics ofUkraine figure of1971(419blnpeople)[Year book in 2009,whichonlyslightlyexceeds the and reformation issues, 2008,pp. 162,164]. andRussia:development tendencies Ukraine of transport (calculated by[Rail Railways bySouthwestern and passengersiscarried export, import, and transit) cargo andtransit)cargo import, export, . Sincetheendof1990s, 1 / 3 of all transit freight ofalltransitfreight direct carriages, passing through the territory passingthroughdirect carriages, theterritory Transit inter presence ofhumansandanimals isminimal. where the sides ofthespeedyrailway track, to theemergence of “lifeless desert” onboth area alongtheroadway, whichwould lead increase inthe ofnoiseandlightdisturbances causedbydrastic about thediscomfort ( countries oftheneighboring the adjacentterritories oblastfrom raionofLuhanska of Milovskyi isolation will increase therate oftransport ( crossing determined points line withstrictly roadway, into thelatter adelimitative turns protective structuresareIf builtalongthe 2002, p. 46]willreinforce function. itsbarrier Tuapse) [Coordination ofrailtransport..., Voronezh–Likhaya–Rostov (Mineralnye Vody, on theroute M of Railway oftheSoutheastern this part The launchofonethespeedytrainson for railway communication. services economy are notinvolved into provision of thatthelocalpopulationand the fact the whichleadsto themanifestationof Ukraine, of donotstop ontheterritory and directcarriages ofourresearch.from theobject These trains andthatiswhy we excludedin Ukraine them They donotpasscustoms andborder control trunk railways alongoneofthebusiest oblast ofUkraine raionofLuhanska ofMilovskyi cross theterritory Transit passengertrains anddirectcarriages so muchattention to theminourresearch. internal make up direct carriages ofthemwereMost trains(89.3percent) ranthrough thecountry. 76 directcarriages passengertrainsand 2007,139international In (Fig. 1). –Moscow–Kyiv–Zhmerynka country communicationrailwayinternational lineofthe operates oftransit, onthebusiest,interms It COMMUNICATION OF UKRAINE OFTYPES PASSENGER RAILWAY the border effect Morvan’s effect tunnel effect RZhD national passenger trains and national passengertrainsand

(60.0 percentofthetotal) . This isprecisely why we paid ). Thus, speedyrailway traffic oscow–Ryazan–M intheregions owingto Moscow–Rostov-on-Don. Moscow–Rostov-on-Don. ). We shouldnotforget ichurinsk– RZhD 221.03.2012 10:05:17

1 and and . 0 of of 3 . 2 0

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train No120Adler–Chişinău (Fig.cities ofRussiaandMoldova 1).Except for onlythe beyond itslimitsconnect of Ukraine, predominantly thecapitalof thestate insea- the USSR,needsof inhabitants of in thetimesofRussian Empire and served, passenger trainsanddirectcarriages our opinion,transitinternationalIn p. 60]. implementation oftheproject[Petrenko, 2010, of EBRDamountingto 40blnUSDfor the theloan in Juneof2000»,planningto attract ofitsreconstructiononly ofdrafting the start long timeago, however The issueofthistunnel’s exploitationhadarisen times ofAustro-Hungarianrule, isasore spot. asin1886the builtasearly tunnel ofBeskids, railway transit,theone-gauge the Ukrainian crosses theCarpathians. carriages direct “For passengertrainsand of transitinternational recreational needsofRussians( of themrunexclusively insummer, serving (Greece), and Thessaloniki Venice All (Italy). to such citiesasBar(Montenegro), Moscow hadbeenlaunchedfrom 2010, suchcarriages of theSovietbloctimes(seeFig. 2009– 1).In routes canbeviewed asageopolitical “relic” Bucharest/Sofia regular instead ofearlier train Budapest–Belg for carriages direct Moscow– thedirections effect points to thedecisive role of which,inouropinion, ofcarriages, type the citiesare ofthegiven theterminuses Varna andPrzemyśl (Bulgaria), (Poland), all in 2007(Fig. 1). With theexception ofBurgas, ten connected citiesofeightstates Ukraine, of passingthroughcarriages, theterritory Transit passengerdirect international to them(Fig. 1). railways of AS its mainbusytrunkrailways. Allregional transit potential. along They cross thecountry and thatisineffective useoftheUkrainian andNo27СKislovodsk–Moscow), Moscow mainly runinsummer(e.g., No24СAdler– passenger trainsexisted (Fig. 1).Suchtrains four stationsoftransitinternational terminal Altogether in2007, trains runbackandforth. 2 3 intheirfunctioning. of The makeup Ukrzaliznytsia rade/Zagreb andMoscow– Ukrzaliznytsia 2 provide services provide services , therest ofthe SSS-effect the capital declared declared ). Part ). Part regulated from thecapital. hadbeenlimited andwerecountries USSR, where withforeign theconnections from the byUkraine was inherited makeup passenger communication ofinternal railwaystructure oftheinternational Clear East– intheterritorial West asymmetry (Fig.cities ofthecountry 2,3). whereas suchtrainsruneastwardsfrom 20 makeup,of internal whichrunwestwards, railwaythe international passengertrains are stationsof theterminal the country Place Theory. However, onlyfour citiesof accordance withtheprovisions ofCentral us to suggestthatithasbeenformed in citiesallows stations placementincertain (Fig. hierarchy 2).Suchdistinct ofterminal the state capitalinregard to this factor followRegional metropolises ofthecountry are makeup madeup,internal isleading. railway30 international passengertrainsof ( Ukraine interregional systems ofsettlement are makeup inthecentersof internal of railwayof international passengertrains allterminuses of Berdiansk, also theresort andKovel, and stations asZhmerynka junctionexception ofsuchimportant can employtheirservices. With the territory ofthecountry’s the larger part level. Consequently, thepopulation of ofthefirst unitsofUkraine and territorial of themare thecapitalsofadministrative (Fig. 2,3)are concentrated in20cities, 15 trains’ routes withinthelimitsofUkraine makeup.internal Terminal stationsofsuch railway passengertrainsofInternational Legrand and theSovietgeopolitics, basedon isadirectconsequenceoftsarist makeup east –west. oftherailway routs This policy No51 Chişinău–Warsaw, runinthedirection withtheexception ofrouteof Ukraine, madeupbeyonddirect carriages, thelimits whereas passenger transitinternational why to theyare south, from oriented north side recreation ( Pronounced principle. metropolis effect macrocephaly SSS effect ). This isprecisely ). ofKyiv, where étoile de 221.03.2012 10:05:17 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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2 4 221.03.2012 10:05:17 1 . 0 3 . 2 Fig. 2. Distribution by country of international passenger railway trains and direct carriages of internal makeup (as of 01.01.2007) 0 1 2

1 0 : 0 5 : 1 7 ggi112.indd 25 i 1 1 2 . i n d d

The dominanceofthe interstate significance). by theirstatusofrecreation zones ofthe which, inouropinion,ispredetermined exception ofAdler inRussia, and Kislovodsk unitsofthefirstlevel (withthe and territorial the administrative centers ofadministrative directionarementioned trainsintheeastern oftheaboveAll thecities-terminuses Tashkent (Fig. 3). stations:Baku, junction andVladivostok, withitsultimate biggestof thistype presence ofcontinuouscommunication directionandtherunning intheeastern day railway communicationofUkraine of suchtrainsto Russiainthepresent- the prevalence ofthecities–terminuses formation explain withitscenter inMoscow big transcontinentalrailway system’s strategies oftheunified Inherited Ukraine. passenger railway communicationof this directiondominates intheinternational (Fig. makeup trains ofinternal 3),precisely thenumberof withRussia.By of Ukraine 2008, р.167])crossed thestate landborder –2007.StatisticalProceedings,Ukraine andcommunicationof to [Transport their total number(calculated according cent (2007)and51.5per(2000)of directionispredominant.eastern 58.1per proved makeup ofinternal thatcarriages railway passengertrainsanddirect The analysisofthetrafficinternational follow (Fig.Ukraine 2). Then, predominantly thecitiesof eastof SSRfrom 1918till1933(19trains). Ukrainian thecapitalof Kyiv (22)andKharkiv, cities: thepresent-day capitalofthestate capital effect the two World Wars. Here owingto the in-between intheperiod andpartially WWI development before ofrailway network the measure, istheconsequenceofhistorical makeup,passenger trainsofinternal to abig railway stationsofinternational terminal effect inertia in ouropinion,istheresult ofthe (90trainsfrom makeup 20cities), internal railwayinternational passengertrainsof 2 5 , byafinger’s breadth leadtwo . ofThe existingdistribution eastward direction historical influence of are situatedUkraine, inRussia.Underthe stationslocatedwith oneoftheterminal in the routes passengertrains ofinternational of63.2 percentofthecities-terminuses them are thecapitals. each(Fig.only onesuchcity 3),andallof Cracow, Przemyśl), European have countries the exception ofPoland (Warsaw, Wrocław, in seven citiesoffour states (Fig. 3). With Terminal stationsofsuchtrainsare situated states. withtheneighboring connections cities allowsthemto have ratherintensive border locationoftheaforementioned The useoftheadvantagesnear- andChişinău.Odessa closelysituatedof trainsrunsbetween althoughthebiggestnumberof thistype, multidirectional passengercommunication Therefore, KyivandLviv have themost historical inertia a great istheresult extent, ofthe of theadvantagestheirlocation,and, to segment ofitsstate border, issuggestive thewestern located nearby of Ukraine, of trains’ bythebiggestcities distribution Suchagraded –inChernivtsi. wayand two up inKyiv, four three –inOdessa, –inLviv, As Fig. 2shows, 10ofsuchtrainsare made from (Fig. fourdepart citiesofUkraine 2,3). runwestwards. makeup of internal They passengertrainsOnly 19international (3 cities)standout. direction, Belarus(2)andKazakhstan shows, amongotherstates oftheeastward direction.As intheeastern Fig.Ukraine 3 passengercommunicationininternational ofthe(11 ofsuchtrains)inthedistribution (37)andSaintPetersburgstates –Moscow of thecapitalsaforementioned the USSRexplainspronounced dominance in thetimesofRussianEmpire and oftheCIScounties ontheterritory network formation ofthepresent-day railway the existingtiesare withMoscow. The with thecitiesinRussia. The strongest of passenger communicationspredominantly –have internationalsettlement ofUkraine metropolises –theinterregional centers of the

historical inertia effect historical inertia and the metropolis effect effect of , allthe 221.03.2012 10:05:19 1 . . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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2 6 221.03.2012 10:05:19 1 . 0 3 . 2 Fig. 3. Distribution by terminus of international passenger railway trains and direct carriages of internal makeup (as of 01.01.2007) 0 1 2

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reviewed regions intheendof19 formationof therailway inthe network have from beeninherited thetimes Many oftoday’s railway routes functioning carriages of internal makeup). ofinternal carriages and60.0percent weremakeup direct per centofthemwere trainsofinternal (89.3 passenger trainsand76direct carriages ran139international 2007 through Ukraine In growth. hinder further railway tracks of thelengthpublicservice of thebranch’s fixed assetsand the reduction are concerned. Depreciation transportation and thevolumes offreight andpassenger the level ofdevelopment ofrailway network leadersasfar isoneoftheworld Ukraine this communication of administrative rankofthecity-terminus passenger communication,thehigheris ofinternational from astate-object Ukraine the longerdistancethatseparates establish thefollowing consistent pattern: The aforementioned allowusto facts beginning ofthe20 ( passen ger railway communicationofUkraine oftheinternational andorientation intensity inthe explain theexistingirregularity Precisely spatialstructures theseinherited ofthestates. parts theperiphery between link the creation ofthesusceptibletransport capitals, ofthetwo andnotat the connection Vilnius–Warsaw–Vienna andwasaimedat along thetrunkrailway SaintPetersburg– outmainly Empirestwo wascarried railway the communicationbetween Empire. thosedays, In regular international emergence of similar relic, runningsincethetimeof the Empire. Train isa Odessa–Chişinău, withthecapitalof outskirts Hungarian theAustro- with theaimofconnecting Lviv–Przemyśl–Cracow–Vienna, functioning Przemyśl ofoldroute Chernivtsi– isapart the RussianEmpires. E.g., route Chernivtsi– existence oftheAustro-Hungarianand CONCLUSION 2 effect of 7

historical inertia Odessa RailwaysOdessa

(Fig. 3). th c. of intheperiod ). intheRussian th –the this communication. of administrative rankofthecity-terminus communication, thehigher isthe passenger ofinternational a state-object from the distancethatseparates Ukraine communication’s development: thelonger passengerrailway ofinternational pattern We have discovered thefollowing consistent cities, especiallywithMoscow. railway communicationmainlywithRussian metropolises haveall Ukrainian passenger consequence oftheeffect inertia, ofhistorical cities. fromAs a 20Ukrainian trains depart direction, whereas eastwarddirected inthe western from whichsuchtrainsdepart are stations, theterminal cities ofthecountry trains passes, thanwestwards. Onlyfour thisdirection4.7timesmore In in Ukraine. national passengerrailway commu nication dominates ininter-Eastward orientation administrative unitsofthefirstlevel. 20 cities, 15ofwhichare thecapitalsof are located in within thelimitsofUkraine passenger railway makeup trainsofinternal Terminal stations oftheroutes ofinternational predominantly have east-west orientation. goingbeyondcarriages, thelimitsofUkraine, passengerrailwaytransit international direct of Russiansinsea-siderecreation, whereas to thesouthto satisfytheneeds the north are from oriented Such trainsandcarriages mainlythecapitalsofcountries. connect ofsuchkind carriages Direct of Ukraine. passenger andfreight traffictrunkrailways, of in summeralongthebusiest,terms Suchtrainsmainlyrun Russia andMoldova. beyond itslimits, onlythecitiesof connect territory,passing through theUkrainian Transit passengerrailway international trains, effect results inthemanifestation ofthe RZhD passenger andfreight traffic, trunkrailways stops of along oneofthebusiest,interms oblastwithoutanyraion ofLuhanska ofMilovskyi cross theterritory carriages Passing passengertrainsanddirect inthisregion. – Moscow–Rostov-on-Don, which –Moscow–Rostov-on-Don,  Morvan’s 221.03.2012 10:05:21 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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2 8 1. .Bue R. 4. Brunet 3. Brunet R.(1990)Le D Blij H.J. de, MullerP.O. 2. realms, (2004)Geography: Lybid, regions andconcepts. 740p. Кyiv: 17. –2007.StatisticalProceedingsTransport andcommunication ofUkraine (2008),Ed. N.S. 16. years (2011),Ed. ofseparated borderland: unity twenty Russian-Ukrainian V.A. Kolossov 8. Kunth A.(2002)Cheminsdefer enmutationdans l’Europe méediante 8. politicsoftheOSJD(2002), Coordinated railtransport OSJD,Warsaw: 7. 59pp. Russian). (In 6. Guigou J.-L. (1993)France 2015.Recompositionduterritoire national. au Contribution (2005–2009)(http://ukrstat.gov.ua) services ofexport-import Dynamics 5. 12. inUkraine Petrenko transittransportations E.A.(2010)Railway 11. Petrenko ofUkraine E.A.(2010) bytherailway transport The dynamicsoftransportations average exchange (http://www.bank.gov.ua)Official rate for Ukrainian). hryvnya 10. (In Кyiv: Tekhnika, SSRin1974(1975)Statisticalyearbook. National economy oftheUkrainian 9. 15. N.I.(2010) railways rollingSerhiienko oftheproblems stock ofUkrainian The tackling Statistics–Synopsis(2009)(http://uic.asso.fr/)Railway 14. 13. andRussia:development tendencies andreformation ofUkraine issues transport Rail REFERENCES (Translated in Ukrainian from English). inUkrainian (Translated Vlasenko Кyiv: State Statistical Service of Ukraine, 276p. Ukrainian). of Ukraine, (In State StatisticalService Кyiv: Vlasenko and O.I. Newchronograph,Vendina, 352p. RussianwithEnglishsummary). (In Moscow: de l’Est débat national. Paris: DATAR, Éditiondel’Aube, 80p. French). (In French). 10 vol. Vol. nouveaux R.Brunet,O. 1.Mondes Dollfus. Paris: Hashette/RECLUS, 552p. (In Ukrainy Rail transport ofUkraineUkrainy Railtransport Zaliznychnyi Ukrainy transport 600 p. Russian). (In géographique 39 through cooperationofstateeconomy sectors andprivate Ukrainian). (2008) Yu.M. Tsvetkov, M.V. M.Yu. Makarenko, Tsvetkov DETUT, 277p. andall. Кyiv: (In territories In: Les In: 80idées-forcesterritories pourentrer dans le21 G.(1999)Lamondialisationdel’économieBenko n’est passynonyme d’abolitiondes – La Découverte, pp. French).La Découverte, 128–130(In 42. (In Russian). 42. (In , No1029,pp. 15 (1993)Buildingmodelsfor spatialanalysisIn: Two decadesofl’ . Montpellier: GIPRECLUS,. Montpellier: pp. 109 é – chiffrement du Monde In: G chiffrement In: duMonde 27 (In French27 (In withEnglishsummary). , No6,р.53 No1,pp. 58 – 56. (In Russian). 56. (In – 62 (In RussianwithEnglishsummary). 62 (In – 123 (In English). 123 (In é ographie unverselle, Ed. R.Brunet:In

(In French).(In e siècle, Ed. S.Cordellier. Paris: Vagonnyi park Zaliznychnyi transport Le courrier despays

(In Ukrainian). (In No. 6,pp. Espace 221.03.2012 10:05:21 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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19. State 2009(2010),Ed. Statistical O.G. ofUkraine Statistical yearbook Кyiv: Osaulenko (CD- ofUkraine State StatisticalService 18. 2007(2008)Кyiv: ofUkraine Statistical yearbook 2 9 V.A. Kolossov, M.V. years ofseparated borderland: unity). twenty Zotova; Russian-Ukrainian In: Service of Ukraine, 236p. Ukrainian). ofUkraine, (In Service withEnglishsummary). Ukrainian (In ROM) Ivan G. Savchuk and infrastructural problemsand infrastructural inborder zone (2011,co-authors and St.Petersburg for perception ofthesecities(2010); Transport ofOdessa Significance districts ofmainmonumentsinhistorical NationalatlasofUkraine); (2007;In: oftheworld country tradefrom Europe.Eastern publications:International Main studyofthecities economy, andgeo-historical geo-urbanity of sector ofexport-oriented geo-economics and Ukraine, The focus ofhisresearch liesongeopoliticalissuesofFrance ofGeography is aseniorscientistoftheInstitute NASofUkraine. obtained theMaster’s 2007he degree (Diploma). SinceJanuary from the Taras in1999and Kyivnationaluniversity Shevchenko was born inKyiv, wasborn in1976.Hegraduated Ukraine 221.03.2012 10:05:21 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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3 0 landscape modeling. been obtainedbyapplyingmathematical Allresultsposses thischaracteristic. have donotcould bereduced. metrics Other volume ofrepeated observations monitoring parameters ofexistingprocesses; thus, the one to provide assessmentofdynamic allow nevertheless single observations, metrics, basedonthevalues derivedfrom can bepredicted. Finally, somelandscape different differs landscape metrics and shown thattheinformational valueof hasbeenalsomathematical analysis. It these laws may through bederived furthermore, ofterritories; genetic types tosubjected stochastic laws specificto aredemonstrated thatlandscapemetrics The results oftheresearch have conducted analysis. andmethodsofmathematicalpatterns regularities ofthedevelopment oflandscape dealswithquantitativemorphology landscape science. landscape Mathematical basis ofthenewscientificdirection in geography asthe inrecent years serves thathasemergedmorphology inRussia’s morphology. landscape Mathematical approaches ofmathematicallandscape byapplying to theuseoflandscapemetrics issuesrelatedof obtaininganswers to key pattern, mathematical models.pattern, matical landscapemorphology, landscape e-mail: [email protected]: P.O. Box Ln,13-2,101000Moscow, 145Ulanskyi Russia; Tel.: +74956247257; Director onResearch,Deputy Ye. ofGeoecology M.Sergeev Institute ofRAS Alexey S. Victorov KEY WORDS: ABSTRACT. MORPHOLOGY OF MATHEMATICAL LANDSCAPE FROM THE POINT OF VIEW LANDSCAPE METRICS This paperdiscussespotential landscape metrics, mathe-  are: metrics. These issuesrelated to landscapeof important studieshave omitted anumber undertaken Moser, etal., 2007;etc.]. Atthesametime, Riitters, et al., 1995; Victorov, 2005a,b; areas [Nikolaev, 1975;Leitao, etal., 2006; environment, assessment,andinother risk conditions, analysisofchangesinthe and planning, definitionofgeological geographic tasks–inlandscapeanalysis of are Landscape metrics used inavariety are focused. ofmany researchersdirection thattheefforts is infinite. Finding isprecisely newmetrics the Furthermore, thenumberofpossiblemetrics etal., 2002;Pshenichnikov,[McGarigal, 2003]. tools forand insoftware analysisofmosaics literature 1998;Leitao, [Victorov, etal., 2006] number ofsuchparameters existbothin Nikolayev, 1975;etc.]. Currently, alarge were andNikolayev, used[Ivashutin 1969; of landscapestructuretheterritory” literature, terms “quantitative indicators intheRussian earlier landscape metrics; al., 1995,etc.] These parameters are called 1966, 1998;Leitao, etal., 2006; Riitters, et 1966;Nikolayev, 1978; [Vinogradov, Victorov, at theEarth’s are widelyused surface landscapemosaicsformedcharacterize Nowadays, quantitative parameters that INTRODUCTION

them? tosubjected any laws andcanwe predict Are the valuesoflandscapemetrics 221.03.2012 10:05:22 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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 impact ofoneprocessimpact under homogeneous morphological structuresformed underthe are themathematical models ofthe genetictype structures ofaparticular mathematical modelsofthe morphological of landscapepatterns. The canonical canonicalmathematicalmodels so-called Aspecialroleproperties. isplayed bythe the landscape’s geometric mostimportant of mathematicalrelationships thatreflect stochastic processes andisacollection of based onexistingmodelsisthetheory matical modelofalandscapepattern 1998,2006].Amathe- [Victorov, patterns is mathematicalmodelsoflandscape mathematical landscapemorphology One ofthemainoutcomes ofthe complexes developed inthisterritory. corresponding to thenatural-territorial bytheareas mosaic formed onthesurface (morphological structure),i.e., thespatial ofstudyisalandscapepattern object methods ofmathematicalanalysis. The development and oflandscapepatterns deals withquantitative regularities ofthe landscapemorphology 2007]. Mathematical Victorov and Trapeznikova, 2000;Kapralova, 1998,2006; in landscapescience[Victorov, as thebasisofnewscientificdirection in Russia’s geography inrecent years serves thathasemergedlandscape morphology theoreticalexact basis. Mathematical provides solutionto theseissuesonthe levelThe modern oflandscapescience monitoring. geological conditions, andofenvironmental problems oflandscapeplanning, ofdefining inaddressingof landscapemetrics theeffectivenessbecause theydetermine The answers to thesequestionsare crucial  RESEARCH METHODS 3 1

What istherelative informational valueof To dolandscapemetrics whatextent combinations? different andoftheir landscapemetrics structure oftheterritory? reflect thedynamicsoflandscape metrics application. metrics aforementioned issues oflandscape key provideslandscape patterns answers to the The usageofmathematical modelsof models. theoretically onthebasisofcanonical logical structures canbeobtained modelsofcomplexmorpho- Mathematical model. only affect thevaluesof parameters inthe of agiven specific conditions genetictype; sediments, precipitation, etc., for theterritory without reference to aspecificcompositionof canbecreatedmodels oflandscapepatterns specifically,to thisproperty mathematical [Nikolaev,of landscapepatterns 1975].Due form asthephenomenonofisomorphism has beennoticedpreviously inaqualitative etc.) indifferentkarst, naturalconditionsand the courseofmainprocesses (erosion, offeaturesis explainedbysimilarities in sediments, age, etc.). stability This remarkable conditions (compositionofdeposits, widerangeofphysical andgeographical very for oflandscapeina thesamegenetictype equations ofmathematicalmodelsare valid that isbasedonthefact morphology The methodofmathematicallandscape erosion plains, etc. 2006]. [Victorov, processes, of ofsubsidence-suffusion karst, plains, ofplainswiththedevelopment of of morphological structuresofalluvial established canonicalmathematicalmodels For example, to date, there have been anywhere.model ofalandscapepattern can beusedto create amathematical structures represents suchelementsthat mathematical modelofmorphological rainfall, temperature, etc. Thus, acanonical not limitcompositionandamountof sediments, etc., butatthesametimedoes in chemicalcompositionofsurface of faults, hollows, buried abruptchanges includesabsence,of uniformity inthearea, simple landscapepatterns. The requirement physiographic conditions, i.e., themodelsof ANALYSIS OF RESULTS 221.03.2012 10:05:22 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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3 2 independently in non-intersecting areas;independently innon-intersecting depressions isprobabilistic andoccurs 1. The process offormation oftheprimary assumptions: The modelcanbebasedonthefollowing are randomlyscattered over theplain. are isometric, frequently round inshape, and (Fig. lakes interspersed thermokarst 1).Lakes tundra,etc.) andwith sedge-cotton-grass of tundravegetation tundra, (cotton-grass withthepredominance horizontal surface conditions. The test area hasalow-hillysub- plain uniform insoilandgeomorphological Let usconsider thearea ofathermokarst-lake plain. onathermokarst-lake the contour ofalake such awidespread asthearea metric of demonstrate thisbyusingtheexampleof of oneoranotherlandscapemetric. We will to whatlaws predict thevalue willgovern allowsone models oflandscapepatterns these parameters. Usingmathematical laws andwhetheritispossibleto forecast are toof landscapemetrics subjected any aboutwhetherparameters little isknown However,depend ontheirproperties. Values calculated from different metrics Fig. 1. A typical representation of the landscape landscape the of representation 1. Atypical Fig. pattern of thermokarst-lake plains on satellite imagery (West Siberia) (West imagery p of multipledepressions, thatis, greater oftheformation thanthelikelihood depends onlyonitssize (Δ formation ofonedepression inthetest area ofthe thelikelihood occurs simultaneously; 2. depressions generation Thermokarst development ofthesite itistrue areas atany time( i.e., ofthelakes for distribution thedensity to be subjected thelognormal distribution, it follows willalso thatthearea ofthelake ofitsradiusarelogarithm inlinearrelation, area ofthelake and Since thelogarithm 2006]. the modelassumptions[Victorov, lake’sthermokarst from radiusfollows strictly demonstrate ofa thatlognormal distribution ispossibleto plain.It on athermokarst lake area ofthecontour ofathermokarst laws for suchawidespread metric, asthe analysis oftheassumptions, atthe to arrive allows one, through rigorous mathematical The foundation ofthemodelcompiled with theassumptionofaconstantdepth). though slow(thisnotioncansubstituted thawing,diameter there ofthelake, isvertical that,alongwithincreasingreflects thefact area. Finally,surface assumption thefourth to theheatflowthroughproportional unit effect isfrom thatthethermal thefact depressions. The third assumptioncomes and reflecttherelativeofthermokarst rarity from ofthestudyarea, thehomogeneity The firstassumptionsseemnatural, as derived the radius. 4. to isproportional The depthofthelake basin; lake area ofthe to thelateral surface proportional anditisinverselyamount ofheatinthelake, of eachother, to the itisdirectlyproportional occursindependently thermoabrasive impact 3. The growth dueto oftheradiilakes per unitarea; where μistheaverage numberofdepressions 1 =μΔ s + o (Δ s ) (1) t ) over thecourse of s ) anditismuch 221.03.2012 10:05:22 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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etc.]. However, the analysis showsthat,if etal., 2002;Leitao,[McGarigal, etal., 2006; tools andreferences software well-known containedinthe or lesssuitablemetrics thequestion andusesmoreentertain solution. Typically, aresearcher doesnot andoftheircombinationsinproblemmetrics informational content ofdifferent landscape istherelative oflandscape metrics theory issueofdevelopment ofthe Another key conditions ofeachsite. on thespecificphysical andgeographical depending parameters vary distribution and remains constant;thevaluesof plains. islognormal ofdistribution The type conditions for theareas ofthermokarst-lake formetrics homogeneousphysiographic allowed forecasting valuesoflandscape approach to predictlandscapebehavior the mathematicallandscapemorphology general, we canconcludethattheuseof by mathematicalanalysisofthemodel. In stochastic wasobtained thispattern pattern; totheir combinationissubjected acertain areaThus, hasitsownvalue, althougheachlake 2008(Fig.1995, 2006;Kapralova 2). andotherareas [Victorov, Alaska, Siberia, forremote thesites in sensingsurveys West validated inreal measurements basedon The conclusionhasbeenempirically where 3 x e fxt empirical (dark blue) distribution of the area of of area the of distribution blue) (dark empirical 3 s the thermokarst lakes (the experimental site) experimental (the lakes thermokarst the theoretical logonormal (magenta) and of the the of and (magenta) logonormal theoretical (,) Fig. 2. An example of the comparison of the the of comparison the of example An 2. Fig. = a , σare themodelparameters. 2 πσ 1 xt − l ) (ln 2 xat σ − 2 t 2 (3) (or karst) depressions (Fig.(or karst) 3). scattered subsidingsandrounded suffusion landscape background withrandomly and usuallyrepresent homogeneous geological andgeomorphological conditions develop inhomogenousSuch territories processes. andsubsidence-suffusion of karst withthedominance formetrics aplainterritory Let usevaluate interrelationships ofthese    landscape metrics: of thejointinformational content ofthree We willdemonstrate thisbytheassessment evaluate theirjointinformational content. relationships and, oflandscapemetrics thus, canrevealmorphology hidden,atfirstglance, Approaches ofmathematicallandscape problems ofusinglandscapemetrics. isoneofthemain advance anditsdetection isnotvisiblein mostoften the metrics other metrics. The interconnectedness of thedifferencesconfirms identifiedbythe add information automatically –ametric them isnotrational, becauseitdoesnot aresome ofthemetrics interrelated, sharing pattern of the plains with subsidence-suffusion subsidence-suffusion with plains the of pattern

Fig. 3. A typical representation of a landscape alandscape of representation Atypical 3. Fig. contours. the share ofthearea underonetype ofcontours,the density and the average area ofacontour, (the foothill plain of Kopet-Dag) processes on satellite imagery 221.03.2012 10:05:22 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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3 4 P impact: 2006], thefollowing relation the describes 2007b; Victorov,this problem [Victorov According to theobtainedsolutionfor processes onsmall-size structures. impact of theprobabilitysubsidence-suffusion the process. This, isaproblem inturn, being withinthelimitsofcenter of onasitea point,randomlyselected of processes, isequalto theprobabilityof by thecenters ofsubsidence-suffusion by theaverage share oflandarea occupied thatprocessesfact prevalence, expressed patterns. The assessmentwasbasedonthe basis ofmathematicalmodelslandscape with thecenters ofcircular shapes, onthe wide classofdangerous geological processes, oftheterritories, butalsoforgenetic types a relationships wassolved not onlyfor the The taskofassessmentmetrics expression provided above. Consequently, hidden relationship, bythe described Thus, thethree analyzed metrics are ina test (Table). empirical primary sions. The outcome to hasbeensubjected the locations; where ofthedepressions μisthemeandensity etSbra(ot)0220440030.111 0.129 0.224 0.093 0.090 0.241 0.053 0.073 0.250 0.434 0.070 0.188 0.198 0.053 0.354 0.002 0.008 0.209 0.307 0.272 0.087 0.001 0.364 148.448 0.0002 0.106 11.364 0.899 81.439 Turgai part) tableland (northern West (South) Siberia 1388.889 0.820 Russian plain(Belarus) Foothill plainofKopet-Dag Caspian lowland 0.111 Baraba steppe Caspian lowland Turgai part) tableland(southern d =1– The comparison between theoretical dependence of m1, m2, and m3 metrics and the empirical data empirical the and m1, of m3metrics and m2, dependence theoretical between comparison The Locations ofthetest sites e –μ s istheaverage area ofthede pres- s (4) (average of density depressions) km Metric 1 –2 thermokarst occurs. thermokarst continued generationofnewcenters of plainsinasituationwhere thermokarst us considerthedevelopment oferosion- However, lakes. edges ofthermokarst let to thedegradation ofpermafrost onthe the generaldynamicsoflandscapedue increases, lakes reflecting of thermokarst plains, theaverage area the thermokarst-lake presented above, itiseasyto seethat,for processes. Referring to theanalysis of theplainsdominated bythermokarst Let usexaminethisissueusingtheexample territory. dynamics of the reflect to whichlandscapemetrics lands isthefollowing:cape metrics theextent of questionsinthetheory One ofthekey models oflandscapepatterns. the relationships hasbeendoneusingthe thefindings.confirmed The forecast of data havemeans; theexperimental only bythetheoreticalhas beenconducted the informational content ofthemetrics area. We emphasize thattheevaluationof depressions locationsandtheiraverage information for ofthe themeandensity prevalence) does the useofthird (processes metric of depressions) (average area Metric 2 km 2 the landscape structure of the the landscapestructureof Empirical (processes prevalence) values not addadditional Metric 3 Theoretical values 221.03.2012 10:05:23 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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new thermokarst lakes. new thermokarst the situationofaconstant generation of Also, thefirstassumptionismodified, given the size ofthissite. to event anditsprobability isproportional forms site onarandomlyselected isarandom 5. The locationofthesources oferosion growth isterminated; ofthelake withit,the is independentoftheotherlakes; theprobability ofthis even erosion network; transition to ahasyrei ifitisdrainedbythe 4. theprocess ofgrowth,In can alake processes: anderosion ofthermokarst the interaction assumptionsthatdescribe further by two the firstpositions, butare supplemented plainspresented above in thermokarst-lake plainssatisfythemodelof thermokarst the morphological structureoferosion and The basicassumptionsofthemodel (Fig.pattern 4). to thelakes,located onaplaininrandom meadow ormarshvegetation and, similar form,also ofisometric occupiedwiththe the plain.Hasyreis are flatdepressions, shape, andare randomlyscattered over areLakes isometric, frequently round in and withinfrequent erosion network. andhasyreisis interspersed withlakes tundra,etc.), which sedge-cotton-grass tundra vegetation tundra, (cotton-grass withthepredominance ofsurface The test area hasalow-hillysub-horizontal 3 Fig. 4. A typical representation of the landscape landscape the of representation Atypical 4. Fig. 5 pattern of erosion and thermokarst plains on on plains thermokarst and erosion of pattern satellite imagery f lakes thermokarst of oftheradiidistribution the density plains: structure oferosion-thermokarst following dependenciesinthemorphological by the ischaracterized dynamic equilibrium transformation to hasyreis isestablished. This andtheir lakes of generationthermokarst intheprocessesthe dynamicequilibrium plains, conditions onerosion-thermokarst aconsiderabletimeinwiderangeof after 2005b],that us to demonstrate [Victorov analysisofthemodelallows Mathematical aconsiderabletime? after hand. What isthedynamicsofterritory and theirtransitionto hasyreis, ontheother due to drainagethrough erosion processes on theonehand, anddisappearanceoflakes the growth andtheformation ofnewlakes there are opposingtrends two onthesite: of thisarea that isassociated withthefact ofanalyzingthedynamics The complexity time. pressions where λistheaverage numberofde- p depressions; thatis, oftheformation ofmultiple the likelihood (Δ time interval the area ofthesite (Δ sites isindependent anddependsonlyon formation ofonedepression onthetest a randomprocess;ofthe thelikelihood depressions generationis Thermokarst s the average area ofalake η(∞) =– the average ofthelocationslakes density ( (∞) = 1 x =λΔ , ∞) −

− s Δ xEi

2 γ−πγ t 1 Ei + a that occurperunitarea perunit () 2 () −πγ Ei 1 o (–πγ) (7) (Δ s t e Δ ); itismuchgreater than e − t –πγ ) (5) πγ x (8) 2 s , ) andtheconsidered x >1 (6) >1, 221.03.2012 10:05:23 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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3 6 P and theirtransformation into hasyreis depressions generation,thegrowth oflakes, into account theincidenceofthermokarst the level oftheprocesses prevalence, taking F ofhasyreisthe distribution radii interesting Above, aspect. we have discussed hasanothervery of landscapemetrics The problem thedynamics ofcapturing for trend analysis. remain constantand, thus, are notsuitable intense) whentheoverall parameters withlocalchanges(possiblyequilibrium area. The reason isthe state ofthedynamic plains donotreflectthedynamicsof erosion-thermokarst lakeson thermokarst oflocations,density andshare ofthearea of astheaveragelandscape metrics area, Thus, theanalysisshowsthatsuch shown inFig. 5. test, tosubjected whichis theempirical The findingsobtainedhave alsobeen exponential function. are themodelparameters; locations ofthesources oferosion forms; where γistheaverage ofthe density of the hasyreis (a part of the Yamburgskoye Gas Gas Yamburgskoye the of (a part hasyreis the of h l the theoretical and empirical size distribution distribution size empirical and theoretical the (∞) =1–exp ( x , ∞)=1– Fig. 5. The correspondence between between Fig. 5. The correspondence

e condensate field) condensate

⎝⎠ ⎜⎟ ⎛⎞ − πγ − x 2 2 λ a (10) γ e −πγ Еi (9) ( x )

is theintegral a , σ models for 1998; thealluvialplains[Victorov, of themathematicallandscapepattern A numberofassumptionsformed thebasis the alluvialplains(Fig. 6). and, thus, forming of thelandscapepattern each other, often “eating” ofeachother parts The patches ofdifferent generationsadjoin patches coherent inshapeandorientation. depressions, adjoiningeachother, form conditions. The elevationsandthe climatic, geological, andgeomorphological systems inaccordance withthezonal, are occupiedbymore xeromorphic The elevations, alsoofanarcuate shape, forest vegetation, andtugaivegetation. swamps,by lakes, saltmarshes, wetland the former meanders, andare occupied have anarcuate shape, from inherited former elevations. riverbed The depressions oxbow (ancientoxbow) depressions and elementsofalluvialplainsareThe principal example ofthelandscapealluvialplains. Let usexaminethisquestionusingan inpredictions. observations stationary can dramaticallyreduce time-consuming sinceit is ofgreat importance, practical relation to eachother, etc.). Suchaformulation of change, thedurationofstagesandtheir the relationship oftherates, theprobability (therate ofdevelopment, of theterritory ofthedynamics about thecharacteristics a singlepointoftime the valuesoflandscapemetrics over time.the metrics Onemay askwhether byrecalculating thevaluesof the territory the questionofcontrolling thedynamicsof Fig. 6. A typical representation of the alluvial alluvial the of representation Atypical 6. Fig. plain on satellite imagery can carry information information cancarry obtained at obtained at 221.03.2012 10:05:24 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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p depend onthebehavior ofotherbends; anddoesnot on thedurationofthisinterval depends time-interval bend over acertain ofthestraighteningThe probability ofthe solution ofthistaskare: for the 2006], ofwhichthemostimportant 1 the arc. of apex tothe center the from goes that chord tothe dicular to thetop ofthearc ofthefragment base the line tangent between a perpendicular fragments oftheoldpatches were drawn as to thetop ofthe patch. The arrows inthe straight line)andtheparallellinetangent thepatch between base(a a perpendicular young developing patches were drawn as drawn reflected theirsize. The arrows inthe arrows ofthefragments ofthepatches were were georeferenced usingGISMapInfo. The Satellite imagesof5-mand15-mresolution of thevalleysrivers Vakh and Taz. remote sensingdatafor the alluvialsites This conclusionwasvalidated byprocessing patches canbeerasedcompletely. patch 2007a).Several (Viktorov, consecutive ofthepreceding patch ortheentirepart younger patch “erases” thecorresponding occurs repeatedly andthatiswhy each thatthestraightening ofthebendfact distribution. This conclusionconsidersthe (i.e., thearrow) mustmeettheexponential to thechordin thedirectionperpendicular and, correspondingly, thesize ofthepatch ofthedevelopment ofthebend the cycle of the modelimpliesthatdistribution distribution ofpatch arrowsdistribution byvalidatingtheconclusionon verified ofthe model may beThe correctness φ. with theperiod The formation occursisochronously ofridges probability ofasingleone. ismuchsmallerthanthe time-interval more thanone straightening over ashort where 3 By analogy with the rise of an arc, which is the line perpen- 7 d =λΔ λ t + is the parameter; theprobabilityof istheparameter; o (Δ t ) (11) 1 . The analysisof P bytheexpressionis described intime,the ridges itispossibleto seethatit the patch. steady Considering generationof in ofthenumberridges the distribution development ofthebendallows obtaining of ofthedurationcycle distribution The useoftheobtainedconclusionon size ofmore than50. forwhen applyingthecriterion thesample- However, more reliable results are obtained Pearson atasignificance criterion level of0.95. andthe the relationship curves ofdistribution databyboth bytheempirical are supported (Fig. 7)showsthattheresults ofthemodel only.consisting ofoneridge The comparison depression;ridge there were nofragments andoneinter- ridges consisting ofatleasttwo the imagesshowed fragments ofthepatches thattheanalysisof withthefact connected was withtheshift use ofthedistributions accordingshift, to theresults obtained. The theoretical withthe exponentialdistribution weredistributions compared withthe andtheempiricalwas determined Further, theaverage valuesfor thesamples   results: were from constructed themeasurements distributions oftheempirical The curves angular unconformities. the patches were isolated onthebasisof to draw thearrows. Adjacent fragments of inmostcases, itwaspossible uncertainties, of thechannel, butingeneral, despite these ofthefragments dueto theshift side parts difficulties associated withtheerasure ofthe somecases,on theoutside. there In were the arc thatdelimited thepatch fragment and theparallellinetangentto thetop of duration oftheformation ofthebend. formation μ ofaridge; where φ

v ( m the size oftheentire setofthepatches. the size oftheyoung growing patches; ) =

ee

−− m is theaverage ofthe period ϕϕ μμ ⎝⎠ ⎜⎟ ⎜⎟ ⎛⎞ 1 −

is theaverage (12) 221.03.2012 10:05:24 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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3 8 v expression in thepatch mayridges begiven bythe follows thattheaverageIt numberofthe a single period ofobservations. a singleperiod valuesarethat themetrics from determined inthepatch. number ofridges We emphasize astheaverageusing suchlandscapemetric formation ofridge may bedefinedby period ofthebendstraightening andthe the period therelationplains thatdescribes between Thus, thedynamicparameter ofthealluvial the formation oftheridge of straightening ofthebendandperiod ofthe theperiod which istheratiobetween obtain thevaluefor thedynamicparameter, The latter itpossibleto expression makes ϕ μ = of the preserved fragment of the formed patch ( patch formed the of fragment preserved the of =+ Fig. 7. The comparison of the experimental curve of the distribution of the sizes of the arrows arrows the of sizes the of distribution the of curve experimental the of 7.Fig. comparison The − n1 ln 1 ⎝⎠ ⎜⎟ ⎛⎞ − e e − distribution with a shift ( ashift with distribution ϕ μ − v 1 ϕ μ . (13) . (14) a –thevalley Vakh; oftheriver 2 ) for the areas of the alluvial plains of Western Siberia: Siberia: Western of plains alluvial the of areas the ) for 1 ) and of the theoretical curve of the exponential exponential the of curve theoretical the of ) and landscape morphology. approaches basedon mathematical canbeaddressedmetrics usingtheoretical issuesinthe use oflandscape The key landscape dynamicsofthearea. however, temporal reflect parameters ofthe obtainedforlandscape metrics oneperiod, this canbeforecasted; thevalues ofsome degrees and reflect theirdynamicsto varying indifferentLandscape metrics landscapes and canbepredicted. varies combinations oflandscapemetrics The jointinformational content ofvarious each landscape. tosubjected stochastic specificto patterns areThe valuesoflandscapemetrics conclusions. Thus, thisstudysuggeststhefollowing CONCLUSIONS b–thevalley Taz oftheriver  221.03.2012 10:05:25 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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14. Victorov, A.S.(2005b) Quantitative assessmentofnaturalhazards usingmethodsof 13. of Victorov Models andFluvial A.S.(2005a) Mathematical Erosion PlainsThermokarst GIS 12. Victorov, landscapemorphology. A.S.(1998)Mathematical Tratek. Moscow: 180p. 11. Victorov, plainsasoneofthe lake A.S.(1995)Amathematicalmodelofthermokarst R.V.Riitters, K.H., 10. O’Neill,C.T. Hunsaker, J.D. D.H.Wickham, Yankee, S.P. Timmins, Jones, K.B. 9. Pshenichnikov, A.E.(2004)Automated analysisofgeographic features morphometric 8. Nikolaev, V.A. (1978)Classificationandsmall-scalemappingoflandscapes. Moscow: Nikolaev, V.A. (1975).Onanalyzingthestructureofsteppe7. andsemi-steppe landscapes 6. Moser, B., J.A.G. Jaeger, U. Tappeiner, E. Tasser, andB. oftheef- Eiselt.(2007)Modification S.A.Cushman, M.C.Neel, andE.Ene. K., (2002)FRAGSTATS:McGarigal, 5. SpatialPattern Anal- Leitao, A.B., landscapes:aplanner’s J. (2006)Measuring Miller, handbook. McGarigal. 4. andK. 3. Kapralova, V.N. (2008) The useofremote sensingdataandmethodsofmathematical 2. Kapralova, V.N. (2007)Applicationofremote of sensingandmathematicalmorphology 1. L.I.and Ivashutin, V.A. Nikolaev. (1969)Onanalysisofthelandscapestructurephysio- REFERENCES 3 9 mathematical landscapemorphology. Geoecology, №4,pp. 291–297(inRussian). and SpatialAnalysis. Proceedings ofIAMG 2005, Toronto, Canada,1,pp. 62–67. (in Russian). pp. 42–51.(inRussian). foundations ofinterpretationfrom ofsatellite theSpace, №5, imagery. StudyoftheEarth Landscape Ecol. 10(1),pp. 23–39. and B.L. Jackson.(1995)Avector andstructure metrics. analysis oflandscapepattern State Press, University Moscow 24p. (inRussian). Moscow: on imagesandmapsfor Abstract. thematicmapping. Candidate Dissertation State Press, University Moscow 63p. (inRussian). (in Russian). from photographs. aerial State University. BulletinofMoscow Ser. Geogr., №3,pp. 15–21 Landscape Ecol22(3),pp. 447–459. fective meshsize problem. for landscape fragmentation measuring to solve theboundary from http:/www.umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.htm. ofMassachusetts, Amherst,MAat theUniversity ofMassachusetts. Available University ysis Program for Maps. Categorical Computer program software produced bytheauthors Island press, Washington, 245p. GEOS.10,pp. 430–434(inRussian). ings. Moscow: implicationsfor geoecology,Planet Earth: geology, andhydrogeology. Sergeev’s Read- processes // to explorelandscape morphology thermokarst The International Year ofthe processes. Landform Analysis,landscape for 5,pp. studyingthermo-karst 35–37. graphic regions, Vestnik MGU, Ser. Geogr., №4,pp. 49–59.(inRussian). 221.03.2012 10:05:25 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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4 0 18. Victorov, A.S.andO.N. Trapeznikova. (2000) The erosion plainmathematicalmodelas 17. Victorov, ofDiffuse Model Assessment BasedontheMathematical A.S.(2007b)Risk 16. Victorov, A.S.(2007a) The modeloftheagedifferentiation ofalluvialplains. Geoecology. 15. Victorov, A.S.(2006)Basic problems ofmathematicallandscapemorphology. Moscow: co-authors). LandscapeMorphology”of Mathematical (2006), “and “Natural Hazards ofRussia” (2002,with including monographs LandscapeMorphology”“Mathematical (1998), “Fundamental Issues etc). depression, Kyzyl-Kum, The results were summarized innumerous publications, hydrogeology, geoecology, andregional research (Usturt, territories Tugay onarid datato address tasksofengineering geology,interpretation andspaceimagery ofaerial andmethodsofidentification were obtainedinthecourseofdevelopment oftheory new trend inlandscapescience–mathematicalmorphology. Significant results geological processes ofdifferent genetictypes. hasledto development ofa This activity creation ofmathematicalmodelsmorphological formed structures byexogenous global sustainabledevelopment. Lowell, Boston, 1,pp. 603–612. Proceedings symposiumonenvironmental ofthe4thinternational geotechnology and a basefor spaceimagesinterpretation methodsingeoenvironmental research. In: Exogenous Geological Processes. Geology, Mathematical vol. 39№8,2007.pp. 735–748. № 4,pp. 34–46(inRussian). 252p. (inRussian). Nauka. AlexeyS. Victorov the RASGrigoriev’s Prize research (2006).His isfocused on (2003),theNationalEcologicalGovernment Prize (2004),and Institute, hehasbeen awarded thePrize oftheRussianFederation atthe hiswork ofGeoecologyRAS.During of theInstitute systems. Director for Since2006,hehasbeenDeputy Research remote sensingusedindesign andoperationofgeotechnical State Prize inScienceand Technology for onintergraded hiswork 1996,he, togetherRAS. In withhiscolleagues, wasawarded the for andforVSEGINGEO theScientificGeoinformation Center of ofScienceDegree in 1976andhisDoctor in1988.Heworked heobtainedhisCandidate ofScienceDegree State University; graduated from theLomonosov Moscow 221.03.2012 10:05:26 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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* Corresponding author Sciences; Tel: [email protected] 74956074789;e-mail: Buldovich simulation. water, riverrun-off, climate change, numerical discharge. surface snow-melting andcondensationwater from increasing away thattakes theprecipitation, longer becausetheunderground storage ofthefloodbecame to 38%.Alsotheperiod up to decreasing ofsnow-meltingoverflow decreasing ofpermafrost area to 30%leads the caseofsporadicpermafrost extent In but affects ontheice-mounds’ volume. no strong influenceontheriverdischarge has theclimatepermafrost warming extent mountainwithcontinuous In extent. with continuousandsporadicpermafrost climate changeisdifferent intheregions the reactionofriverdischarge onthe authors showed for thecaseof1990that 1 3 2 O.Dmitry Sergeev 7 6 5 4 e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: 99775, USA; Tel: 19074747459,fax:4747290; University; Tel: [email protected] 74959394920,e-mail: Tel: [email protected] 74959394920,e-mail: of Sciences; Tel: [email protected] 74956074789,e-mail: Tel: 74959391937,Fax: 74959328889 ABSTRACT. KEY WORDS: 4 PART OF LENA RIVER’S BASIN DISCHARGE AND ICING IN THE UPPER ON THE REGIME OF REGIONAL AND GEOCRYOLOGICAL CONDITIONS THE INFLUENCE OF CHANGING CLIMATE Geophysical Fairbanks; Institute, University ofAlaska POBox 750109,Fairbanks, AK Water Resource Center, Fairbanks, University ofAlaska USA oftheGeological Environment, Laboratory Faculty ofGeology, Moscow State Faculty Department, ofGeology, Geocryology Moscow State University; Laboratory, Geocryology ofEnvironmental Institute Geoscience, RussianAcademy Faculty Department, ofGeology, Geocryology Moscow State University; 1 Permafrost Laboratory, ofEnvironmental Institute Geoscience, RussianAcademy of 4 Usingthebalancemethod , Anatoly V. Gavrilov permafrost, underground 1 *, Nikolai N.Romanovskiy 5 , Kenji Yoshikawa to “summer” discharge decrease among entire winter. Moreover, theratio of “winter” the of water intoduring theArcticOcean continue to discharge asignificant amount free areas (Ob’, Yenisei, Lena, Mackenzie), ous permafrost oreven into thepermafrost- watersheds into theregions withdiscontinu- the larger arcticrivers, their whichextend thewinter. during Ocean Arctic In ceasetheirdischarge intopractically the the Yana inEastSiberia, Rivers andIndigirka or as theKuparukandColville inAlaska Rivers of groundwater inthewater balance),such drasticallylimitingtheinfluence everywhere, (i.e.permafrost distribution permafrost is entirely from watersheds withcontinuous watersheds. theirwaters thatcollect Rivers withintheir by thepermafrost distribution and Subarcticriversare strongly impacted The climaticandhydrologic regimes ofArctic INTRODUTION 2 , Gennadiy S. , Gennadiy Tipenko 6 , Vladimir E. Romanovsky 3 , Sergey N. contrast, contrast, 7 221.03.2012 10:05:26 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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4 2 layer dynamics canexplainchangesin the winter discharge. Though theactive increase in cannot explaintheobserved summer) alone thawing every experiences (the layer ofsoilabove thepermafrost that layer oftheactive An increase inthickness andalreadywarmest discontinuous. oftheirbasinswhere permafrost isthe parts river watersheds andespeciallyintheupper permafrost dynamicswithintheSiberian changes inthewinter riverdischarge isthe 2001b], themostreasonable explanationof [Pavlov, etal., 2001aand 1994;Romanovsky oftime over thesameperiod in Siberia increase inpermafrost temperatures or ice. Taking into accounttheobserved storage assnow intemporary are locked in unfrozen zones withinpermafrost (taliks) discharge but groundwater accumulated winter,2001]. During allothersources ofriver the winter months[Savelieva etal., 2000and increase ismuchmore noticeableduring three decadesand, mostimportantly, this in theseriverstotal discharge thelast during aslightincrease 2001], there wasobserved river watersheds [Savelieva etal., 2000and no increase inprecipitation over theSiberian We already seethechanges. With practically probably increase thetotal discharge aswell. increasing Ocean, the Arctic winter flow, itwill ofthearcticriverdischarge intoseasonality water balance. Altogether, itwillchangethe flowinthe increasing therole ofsubsurface and storage willbealtered considerably, of groundwater recharge, flow, discharge As aresult, thickness. conditions vertical andcanaffectpermafrost its spatialextent of permafrost willsignificantly changethe 2001; Sazonova etal., 2001].Degradation Hemisphere [Anisimov etal., the Northern the permafrost degradation inmany areas in willbesignificant enoughto start this century climate.a warmer in The predicted warming river discharge canchangesignificantly with inthearctic obvious thattheseasonality itbecomes Based onthisobservation, in theirwatersheds [Savelieva etal., 2001]. accordingly ofpermafrost to theextend (Ob’,the Great Rivers Siberian Yenisei, Lena) parts of the northern riverswhere allthermal ofthe northern parts uplands andmountainregions intheupper changes willbethemostnoticeable inthe discharge, especiallyinitsseasonality. These storage withsubsequentchangesin river flowand significant changesinsubsurface increased hydraulic conductivity, willleadto sedimentswith the layers ofcoarse-grained andRomanovskiy, 1984]orto Romanovsky andAfanasenko, 1980; zones [Romanovsky are usuallyrelated to thefracturedtectonics the size oftheinter-permafrost taliks, which degradation. Relatively smallincreases in even withoutwidespread permafrost storage andflowcouldhappen subsurface 1997].However,[Kane, significant changesin talik willbeformed over thepermafrost) to freeze backcompletely (inthiscasea layer andtheactive fails from itssurface to thaw flow occurwhenpermafrost starts The mostdramaticchangesinsubsurface talik zones withinthepermafrost. flowandstorage volume inthe subsurface shouldberelated tostarted) changesin (before spring winter andearly snowmelt inthelate rivers base flowofthearctic redistribution. Any naturalincrease inthe layerin theactive withsomesmalllocal significantly to thestreamflow andfreezes However, thiswater doesnotcontribute groundwater untilitscomplete freeze-up. continues to holdasignificant amountof in uplands, riverterraces, and floodplains 1983]. layerThe active withintheflatsurfaces drains away completely [Romanovskiy, groundwater layer intheactive onslopes weeks onsetofthefreezing, after theexcess long before thistime, to abouttwo three the permafrost research show, inSiberia Romanovsky, 1997].As numerous datafrom and 1995and2000;Osterkamp Osterkamp, and –November [Romanovsky October zone occursinlate thecomplete freeze-up thecontinuouspermafrost end ofJanuary. In layer isusuallycomplete bythe freeze-up within discontinuouspermafrost theactive on winter discharge river isminimal. Even effect ofincreased layer active thickness [Dingman, etal., 1973;McNamara 1998],the stream recessions intheArcticandSubarctic 221.03.2012 10:05:26 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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hydrogeological modelsfor numerical coupledpermafrost- three-dimensional and useofphysicallyIntensive basedtwo- dynamics (icingformation andextent). orchangesinground water (thermokarst) toattributed degradation ofpermafrost geomorphological changes thatmay be sensing studieswillbeappliedto detect regimes thelast100years. during Remote changes inhydrological andpermafrost tofield studieswillbeconducted quantify addition,extensive the Lena basin.In River available permafrost dynamicsdata within data ontheLena hydrology River and synthesis, andintegration oftheexisting This investigation willbebasedonanalysis, and permafrost degradation. asaresultArctic Ocean ofclimate warming changes inarcticriverdischarge into the to usethisunderstandingfor prediction of permafrost zones alongtheLena and River heat andwater exchange withindifferent andhydrogeologicalthermal processes of to obtainadeeperunderstandingofcoupled The overall goaloftheproposed research is permafrost degradation. occur asaresult and ofclimate warming and changesintheseconditionsthatwill the permafrost-hydrogeological conditions other words, thesemodelshave to include flow. anddeepersubsurface In near-surface) (or of water movement surface between storage, fluxes, andchangesinpartitioning into accountchangesinsubsurface take Pan-Arctic Hydrological modelshave to theRegional and (especially itsseasonality), arctic riverdischarge into theArcticOcean anattempt to the properlyIn describe discharge (especiallyitswinter component). unexplained increases river intheSiberian Permafrost” resulting system inSiberia, in happening inthe “Hydrology-Hydrogeology- processes are already important some very isobviousfrom thepreviousIt discussionthat where thepermafrost isthemostdynamic. hydrology orhydrogeology)(subsurface and water movements tightly withsubsurface processes are coupledvery subsurface 4 3 response to the21 climate changeduring permafrost dynamicswithintheseunitsasa 2. andthree-dimensional Estimate thetwo- of Lena basin. River parts locationswithintheprincipal at typical permafrost affected hydrostratigraphic flowandstorage inthe and subsurface models ofground water recharge/discharge, thephysicallyDeveloping basednumerical 1. to objectives meet: possible perspective To accomplishthisgoalthere are four for modelinitiationandverification. inputparametersanalyses willprovide key data for modeling. ournumerical Image sites. This information willbeusedasinput hydrogeological information for thespecific to obtainspecificpermafrost- also performed application ofgeophysical methods, willbe to achieve thisgoal. Field research, including methodsemployeddynamics willbethekey of permafrost-hydrogeological system analysisandforsensitivity predictions 4150 km withthearea River ofOlyokma tributary hydrogeologists andpermafrost scientists. Depression. iswell studiedby This territory ofMesozoic Chulmanthe middlepart ofthestream crossand themiddlepart islocatedRiver intheStanovoy Ridge the area 3840km with ofAldanRiver (thetributary River ofLena BasinontheChulmanupper part The areas ofinvestigation are located atthe Arctic. changes across andthroughout Siberia the 4. ofthese Assess andquantifytheimpact discharge patterns. basin andasaresult ontheLena River and hydrogeology withintheLena River onthehydrologypermafrost characteristics 3. Assess theeffect ofthesechangesin century. AND PERMAFROST CONDITIONS RELIEF, GEOLOGICAL 2 ). The headwater ofChulman 2 ) and Chara River (the) andCharaRiver

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4 4 the permafrost iscontinuous. width.Here Depression thathasthe40km ofCharaBasinislocated inCharaRift part relief withupto 2174maltitude. The upper hasthesmoothbaldmountain Ridge Udokan to 2999maltitudeandlivingglaciation. hasthealpinerelief Ridge withup Kodar rocks. withancientcrystalline Ridges Udokan hasthesources and Chara River inKodar rocks placehere takes (upto 5mdepth). winter the deepseasonalcoolingofthe precipitation.infiltration ofatmospheric In The flatwatershed divideare thearea of the slopesandonbottoms ofvalleys. of The permafrost existsonthelower part flat shape. The slopesare steep (10–20°). watershed dividesare wideandhave the (valleys) to 950m(watershed divides). The heightsabove sealeveltypical from 150m tectonic region hasaplateau relief withthe pp. 291–311]. The ChulmanDepression as [Fotiev, 1965;Southern Yakutia, 1975, The permafrost here isdiscontinuous Fig. 1. The discharge of open talik pressure water in the valley bottom (Southern Yakutia). (Southern bottom valley the in water pressure talik open of 1. discharge Fig. The This head water forms the icing n the winter nthe icing the forms water head This 25 years from 38). (1957–59, 1963–69,1972–75,1979–95,or here oftime longerperiod existed during (see Fig. 2b). The synchronism ofanomalies despite thesimilarairtemperature warming trends ofprecipitation andriverdischarge CharaBasinwe didnot saw theevident In in theotherperiods. and abruptanomalies’ lackofcoincidence 1967–70, 1982–90,or19years from 45) anomalies inseveral (1950–58, periods of precipitation’s discharge’s andriver Fig. 2a).It’s noticeablethesynchronism river discharge intheotherhand(see and precipitation inonehandandthe the opposite trends oftheairtemperature and Chulman’s Chulmanwe basins. saw In showed thedifference Chara’s between andhydrologicalof meteo- characteristics tendencies oflongterm The comparison CONDITIONS METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL 221.03.2012 10:05:26 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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discharge dynamics(Fig. 1). ofheadwater level andobservations bythehydrogeologicalsupported of precipitation. This assumptionwas month thatwasfollowing themonth was reaching theriverbedinnext and (tectonic orcryogenic) of highfissuring going to underground spaceusingthezone permafrost theprecipitation water was without However intheplateau surface channels. delay from permafrost areas to therivers’ precipitation water wasgoingwithoutany inaccount.Authors assumedthatthe take The magnitude ofprecipitation didnot was assumed(nodirectdataaboutit). up to 1.5timesthaninChulmandepression theamountofprecipitationRidge ismore meteorological theStanovoy station.In Climatic datawasobtainedfrom Chulman 97% oftheterritory. of ChulmanBasinthepermafrost occupied part thesouthern 69% oftheterritory. In the plateaus thepermafrost waslocated at permafrost andtaliksareas. seventies on In This maphelpeduscalculate theratioof 000. 1 :200 permafrost mapofthisregion withthescale State drew-up University of Moscow the 1976Permafrost(60% ofarea). In Department plateau (40%ofarea) andhighmountain parts: Chulman Basinwasdividedontwo discharge, layer. condensationintheactive the evaporation,regional underground and glacier, theliquidprecipitations, water amountfrom meltingsnow, icing into account inthebalanceequation method ofbalanceswasused. We took change intheriverdischarge the variation 1989]. To estimate therole ofpermafrost Kurinova, permafrost condition[Vsevolojskiy, underground with water dynamicslinked response to precipitation trend isthe ground oftheambiguousriverdischarge’s Authors formed hypothesis thatthemajor METHODS ANDMETHODS ASSUMPTIONS 4 5 of discharging inSeptember (Fig. 2 tide andtheexistingofsecondpeak thetimeofspringThat wasconcerned showed thenoticeabletracedifference. the calculated andreal hydrograph annual hydrographs (Fig. Chulman 2).In month of1990wasreflected incalculation waterReconstructed balancefor each precipitations. melting wasflowingasthewater from liquid we supposedthatthewater from snow 70% –inMay, and20%–inJune. Also snow wasmeltinginApril, consequently inOctober,Snowfalls wasstarting 10%of discharging withinStanovoy inrivers Ridge. underground water inStanovoy was Ridge subdivision ofthebasin,inotherwords the was discharging intheriverwithineach We supposedthatallunderground water Chulman region this link issignificant because to changetheriverdischarge regime. In brings The changeofpermafrost extent et al., 2005]. that wascompensated later [Berezovskaya seventies thisparameter slightlydecreased in the50-year period. Onlyintheearly regions didnotshowthesignificant change (Fig. 3). The regional evaporationinboth the gradual decreasing aspect inlong-term The maximumofmonthlydischarge showed this region. ofundergroundimportance discharge in inNorthern extent Transbaykalia andlow corresponds to continuouspermafrostfact discharge was beunappreciated (Fig. 2 as well astheAugust’s peakandSeptember’s tidewasbeoverrated amount ofthespring difference wasnotbeshowed thoughthe water. ofatmospheric surplus Charathis In large underground the thatadsorb collectors Authors explainthisphenomenonbythe not showup. precipitation regime butin1990itwas discharge should becorresponded to We thatthedynamics ofriver expected RESULTS AND DISCUSSION b ). This a 221.03.2012 10:05:27 ). 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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4 6 Fig. 2. The dynamics of mean annual values of climate and river discharge characteristics discharge river and climate of values annual mean of dynamics The 2. Fig. Fig. 3. The dynamics of maximum monthly discharge in Chara ( Chara in discharge monthly maximum of dynamics The 3. Fig. 1 – river discharge (left scale), discharge1 –river (left 2–precipitatio The dashed lines show the corresponding linear trends linear corresponding the show lines dashed The in Chulman ( Chulman in a ) and Chara ( Chara ) and n (left scale),n (left (right 3–airtemperature scale) b ): 1 ) and Chulman ( Chulman ) and 2 ). 221.03.2012 10:05:27 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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increasing of the first one brings to shrinking increasing to shrinking ofthefirstonebrings floodinguptoriver 15%. The consecutive toto decreasing 10%brings ofthepeak of talikunderground water feeding zones up –7 regional level ofground temperature (upto temperature onlybecausethelow shift tothe climate permafrost changebring Chara change. permafrost distribution In ofwater sinkareas fromthe dependency 4 7 (left scale),(left 5–Calculated discharge river withthetalik ar Fig. 4. The comparison of real and calculated river discharge for 1990 in Chulman ( Chulman in 1990 for discharge river calculated and real of comparison The 4. Fig. 1 – Liquid precipitation equivalent (bar chart, theright sc 1 –Liquidprecipitation equivalent chart, (bar 3 – Calculated river discharge (left scale),3 –Calculated discharge river (left 4–Calculated ÷ –9°C). In ChulmanRegion theincreasing In –9°C). discharge withthetalik areas in will increase too. willincreaseextent thenthedischarge delay through watershed thepermafrost divide. If precipitation goesto underground taliks ofatmospheric flow splittingwhenthepart These changeswere withthewater linked also butdidnotdisappeared completely. peakdecreased andextended summer-end of thefloodingto theendofJune. The tideupto 38%andtoof spring prolongation river dischargeriver to withthetalik up 10% increased areas eas increased up to 20% (left scale), to up 20% (left increased eas 6–Calculated river ale), 2 – Real river discharge in the river bed (left scale),ale), (left discharge river 2–Real bed intheriver creased up to 30% (left scale) to up 30%(left creased a ) and Chara ( Chara ) and b ): 221.03.2012 10:05:27 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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4 8 Dingman, S.L.(1973)Effects ofpermafrost inthediscontinuous 3. onstream characteristics 2. Berezovskaya S., Yang D., L.(2005)Long-term Hinzman annualwater balanceanalysisof Anisimov, O., etal. (2001)Polar1. Regions (Arctic andAntarctic).In “Climate Change:Impacts, showed for the caseof1990thatthe Using thebalancemethodauthors massifs withmonthlydelay. andunderpermafrost areas undersurface water thatflowfromatmospheric watershed of withtheincreasingis linked ofpart hydrograph shape(Fig. 4 discharge to ofriver softening and bring influencesontheregimewarming ofriver theclimate ofcryolithozone type Southern In [Shesternyov, Verkhoturov,2006]. was strongly decreased thelast20years The volume oficemoundsinCharaRegion oficemoundformation.on theintensity rivertaliksandthereforevolume ofunderbed influences onlocalsprings’ flow-rate, onthe volume. thiscasetheclimate warming In islessthanpermafrost massifs’collectors temperatures are lowandthevolume oftalik Northern Transbaykalia, Chara)thepermafrost (e.g. ofcryolithozone type Northern In hydrogeological collectors’ volume. water feeding zones andto increasing of to enlargementbring ofunderground Chulman River. Thus theclimate warming andcalculated hydrographsobserved of between be thecauseofdiscrepancy the underestimation oftaliks’ areas canned So permafrost distribution. data aboutactual permafrost map(1976). We have noprecise estimationwasobtained fromextent old isnoticeablethatthepermafrostIt REFERENCES CONCLUSION permafrost zone of central Alaska. In Permafrost, the North American Contribution to Contribution Permafrost, American In permafrost theNorth zone ofcentralAlaska. Change,the Lena 48, pp. //GlobalandPlanetary River 84–95 pp. 801–841. Panel onClimate Change, Third Press, Assessment University Review».Cambridge Adaption and Vulnerability, of theContribution GroupWorking IIoftheIntergovernmental a ). This phenomenon phenomenon ). This interpretation. effective helpingwithdataprocessing and andM.V.KasimskayaS.L.Berezovskaya for the in Lena River’s basin”. Authors alsoappreciate regime mountaincatchments’ attypical areas the regime ofregional discharge andicing conditionson change andgeocryological 06-05-64959a influence oftheclimate “The of RussianFund ofBasicResearch grant Hydrological Regime”, aswell assupport Landscape, and Ecosystem Dynamics, onPermafrost andtheirImpact Siberia NASA “Current Climate Changeover Eastern of wascompletedThis work grace asupport rivers. ofhydrologicaldiction regime ofSiberian is evidentfor themore accurate pre- Practical i discharge. superficial snow-melting andcondensationwater from increasing away thattakes theprecipitation, longer becausetheunderground storage ofthefloodbecame to 38%.Also theperiod up to decreasing ofsnow-meltingoverflow decreasing ofpermafrost area to 30%leads the caseofsporadicpermafrost extent In but affects ontheice-mounds’ volume. no strong influenceontheriverdischarge has theclimatepermafrost warming extent mountainincaseofcontinuous In extent. with continuousandsporadicpermafrost climate change isdifferent intheregions reaction oftheriverdischarge onthe ACKNOWLEDGEMENT mportance offulfilledstudymportance  . 221.03.2012 10:05:28 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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18. Sazonova, T.S., Romanovsky, V.E., Sergeev, D.O. and Tipenko, G.S.(2001) of The Modeling Savelieva, N.I.,Semiletov,17. I.P., Weller, G.andL.N. Vasilevskaya evidencefor (2001)Empirical 16. Savelieva, N.I.,Semiletov, I.P., Vasilevskaya, L.N.andS.P. Pugach in (2000)Aclimate shift Romanovsky, V.E. (1984) 15. andN.N.Romanovskii Conductivity The Improvement ofElectrical 14. Romanovsky, V.E., Shender, N.I.,Sazonova, T.S., Balobaev, V.T., Tipenko, G.S.andRusakov, 13. R Romanovsky, 12. V.E., and regimeT.E. ofthethermal variations (1995)Interannual Osterkamp 11. Romanovsky, V.E., and T.E. (2000)Effects ofunfrozen Osterkamp water onheatand Romanovsky, V.E.10. and V.E. (1980)NewDataAboutPermafrost-Hydrogeological Afanasenko 9. Romanovskiy, N.N.(1983)Underground Waters State inCryolitozone. University Moscow Pavlov,8. A.V. (1994)Current changesofclimate andpermafrost andSub-Arctic intheArctic 7. Osterkamp, T.E., and V.E. (1997)Freezing Romanovsky layer oftheactive ontheCoastal J.P.,McNamara 6. D.L. Kane andL.D. (1998)Ananalysisofstreamflow hydrology Hinzman in D.L.5. Kane, (1997) by ofHydrologic Ecosystems onArctic Induced Perturbations The Impact 4. Fotiev S.M.(1965)Underground Water andPermafrost ofSouthern Yakutian Coal Basin. 4 9 Active Layer andPermafrostThickness Temperature Regime (past,present andfuture) Land–Sea System intheAmerasianArctic, Dalnauka, pp.Vladivostok, 41–54. I.P. 1970s. Asia intheearly In climate shift North Semiletov (ed.), ChangesintheAtmosphere– Progress inOceanography, 47:279–297. seasonal valuesofmeteorological andhydrological Asia, parameters for northeastern Geologia, 4:116–125(inRussian). Ingenernaja Hydrogeological Surveys, for thePurposes Efficiency Method oftheSmallScaleEngineering andGeocryological- Moscow, June6–8,pp. 301–314. ProceedingsIn: oftheSecondRussianConference (Permafrost onGeocryology Science), V.G. (2001b)Permafrost Temperatures Past, and EastSiberia: Present inAlaska andFuture. Tohoku Geophysical (Sci.Rep. Journal Tohoku Univ., Ser. 5), Vol. 36,No. 2,pp. 224–229. Permafrost Temperature AlongtheEastSiberian Dynamics Transect andanAlaskan Transect, Periglacial Processes, 6,pp. 313–335. Permafrost Alaska. and permafrost inNorthern layerof theactive andnearsurface Processes, 11,219–239. processes layer intheactive andpermafrost, Permafrostmass transport andPeriglacial Region, Yakutsk (inRussian). Conditions oftheBAM- Geocryological In: Structure oftheDzhagdi-SocktahanRange. Press, 232pp. (inRussian). of Russia,Permafrost andPeriglacial Processes, 5:101–110. Arctic, PermafrostPlain oftheAlaskan andPeriglacial Processes, 8(1),23–44. 206: 39–57. anested watershed approach, ofHydrology, Journal Basin,Arctic Alaska: the KuparukRiver Verlag, New York, pp. 63–81. and B. (eds.), Sveinbjornsson GlobalChangeandArctic Terrestrial Ecosystem, Springer Climate Oechel, Change. In: W.C., Callaghan, T., Gilmanov, T., Holten, J.I., B., Maxwell, Molau, U. 231pp.Moscow, (inRussian). Nauka, Washington, D.C., NationalAcademy ofSciences, p. 447–453. Conference,the SecondInternational Yakutsk, U.S.S.R., July16–28,1973,Proceedings: omanovsky, V.E., Osterkamp, T.E., Sazono va, T.S., Shender, N.I.and V.T. Balobaev(2001a) 221.03.2012 10:05:28 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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5 0 21. Vsevolojskiy V., Kurinova T. (1989) Water BalanceofIntensive Water Zone Migration in 20. Southern Yakutia (1975)Ed. byKudryavtzev V.A., Moscow, MSUPublishing, 444pp. D.M.,Shesterniov 19. Verkhoturov A.G.(2006)Icingof Transbaykalia Region. Chita,ChitaState Intensive Intensive Water Zone. Migration pp. Moscow, 13–23(inRussian). Nauka, andHydrological Investigations Geocryological ofthe Part ofCryolithozone. In: Southern (in Russian). Press,University 213pp. (inRussian). F180. Abstract, within East-Siberian Transect, usingGIS,EOS, Trans. AGU, 82(47),Fall Suppl., Meet. Gennadiy S. Gennadiy Tipenko Nicolai N.Romanovsky O. Dmitry Sergeev He is the author of 40 journal publicationsandnumerousHe istheauthorof40journal reports. hydrates, andseasonalsnow cover). subseapermafrost, thermokarst transfer withphasetransitions, groundwater movement, gas and permafrost (intheareas ofsoilphysics, thermodynamics, heat modeling ofenvironmental andengineering problems involving ice interests includethecomputationalmathematicsandmathematical ofEnvironmental research Institute Geoscience (IEGRAS).His is currently Laboratory, leadingresearcher oftheGeocryology Fairbanks ofAlaska State andattheUniversity University Moscow He Russia. Hehadseveral research andteaching positionsatthe Ph. D. from State in inMathematics University theMoscow 15 booksandmanualssummarize theresults ofhiswork. relation to climate andsealevel change. More than 300papers, evolution ofoffshore permafrost andgaz-hydrate zone in andunderground water surface incoldregions,between of polygonal phenomenainpermafrost zone, interaction in coldregions. Hewastheleaderoffundamentalinvestigations hydrogeology andenvironmental ofcryolithozone protection geology, processes andphenomena, Quaternary geocryological researchHis ismainlyinregional geocryology, andhistorical Professor atGeological Faculty State University. oftheMoscow Association onEngineering Geology.and theInternational PermafrostHe isthememberofInternational Association region (2001–2003),andNorilsk (1991–1992). Alaska Northern Southern Yakutia (1982–1990, 2005–2011),Central, Western and inexpeditionto Northern Transbaykalparticipated region and due theclimate changeandanthropogenic D.Sergeev impact. researchnational andinternational onpermafrost dynamics ofEnvironmentalInstitute in Geoscience. Heparticipates region”). HeistheChiefofPermafrost attheRAS Laboratory BeltinNorthern in 1991(“KurumsofBaldMountain Tranbaikalia 1986 asgeologist-hydrogeologist andobtainedhisPhD degree graduated from State in University Moscow received hisMSc. and inMathematics is Doctor of Science and Emeritus ofScienceandEmeritus isDoctor 221.03.2012 10:05:28 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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5 1 2007 andHydrology”“Cryosphere andtheleadauthorof Chapter 7 “Frozen Ground” inUNEP Global Outlook forIceGlobal Outlook andSnow Vladimir E. Romanovsky Kenji Yoshikawa Anatoly V. Gavrilov Sergey N.Buldovich book chapters. ofACIA 2005 for Hewasaco-author Chapter 6 author of130+refereed publications, journal many and reports, engineering problems involving iceandpermafrost. Heisthe ofenvironmental aspects and include thescientificandpractical processes.of permafrost andperiglacial research His interests present andfuture permafrost dynamicsandtheremote sensing Heisalsoinvolved Mongolia. modelingofpast, innumerical and Russia,Canada,Greenland, Kazakhstan, changes inAlaska, coordinatedinternationally research on permafrost temperature Geophysical Permafrost Institute involves work Laboratory. His Fairbanks.Geophysics, ofAlaska University Healsoheadsthe ofGeologyand Geophysical andtheDepartment Institute give lectures atseveral universities keynote andinstitutes. to booksandacade contributions mic conferences, andisinvited to therecentfirst authororcoauthorduring years. Healsohasmade Andes. Hehaspublishedmore than 50 peer-reviewed papersasthe searching Kilimanjaro, thepermafrost orPeruvian atMount Mexico inmanyHe organized fieldinvestigations, andtook part including many structuresandhydrology. pingosandexaminedtheirinternal Siberia, Tibet, CanadianArctic, where andMongolia, hehaslocated research locationshave includedSvalbard, West Greenland, Alaska, interest. permafrost, butpingosandicingsare hisprimary Yoshi ka wa’s geomorphology, groundwater hydrology, (Martian) andextraterrestrial Fairbanks,of Alaska areas ofresearch USA.His are permafrost monographs, atlases. two mapsoftheUSSRscale1:2500000,six geocryological is theauthorofmore than150works, includingthe aerospacemultispectral images:methodologyandresults”. He Achievements for hisexhibition interpretation of “The he wasawarded silver medaloftheExhibitionEconomic geocryology, paleogeography, andaerospace research. 1982 In research interests are issuesofregional andhistorical and underground State waters University. oftheMoscow His of thegeological environment andtherelationship ofsurface of more than75papers. underground water forforecast. thegeocryological Heisauthor research permafrost between and istheheatinteraction Geological Faculty, State University. Moscow The focus ofhis Assistant Professor ofthe Department inGeocryological (fordistribution theexampleofChulmanDepression”). Heisan conditions andtheinfluenceoftheironpermafrost heat andwater exchange indiscontinuouspermafrost geologist andobtainedhisPhD degree in1982(“Peculiarities of and theChapter onPermafrost in , aresearch professor, attheUniversity works –Ph. D., seniorresearcher oftheLaboratory graduated from MSUin1971ashydro- isaProfessor inGeophysics atthe SWIPA . 221.03.2012 10:05:28 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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5 2 Tel. [email protected] +35929793939,e-mail: Bonchev St.,bl. Bulgaria; 1,1113,Sofia, Technology Institute, BulgarianAcademy Acad. ofSciences (SRTI-BAS), Georgi factor oftechnogenicfactor pollution–Z weak relationships were found the between were out.As aresult, carried weak andvery in ArcGIS/ArcInfo 9.2,where spatialanalyses decommissioning, into afilegeodatabase periods, i.e. uraniummining andafter prior were coupledwiththesatellite datafor two aim, ground-based geochemicaldataand satellite datafrom Landsat. To achieve the by uraniumminingusinghighresolution abiotic stress ofconiferous landscapescaused andassessmentof is aimingatdetection frost, technogenic pollutionetc. Present work such assnowstorms, forest fires, drought, and assessmentofabioticstress situations, one ofdecisive technologies for detection * 2 Lachezar H.Filchev landscapes, uraniummining, Landsat. tion satellite data,abioticstress, coniferous correlate well thanotherindiceswith Z among classes, whereas and theNDVI VCI to ofseparability otherindicesinterms and VCI. better compared performs The TVI MSAVI, NDWI, vegetation indicesNDVI, TVI, Tel. [email protected] +35929792490,e-mail: Bonchev St.,bl. Bulgaria; 1,1113,Sofia, Technology Institute, BulgarianAcademy Acad. ofSciences (SRTI-BAS), Georgi 1 ABSTRACT. KEY WORDS: HIGH RESOLUTION LANDSAT DATA) MINING (USING MULTITEMPORAL LANDSCAPES CAUSED BY URANIUM OF ABIOTIC STRESS OF CONIFEROUS AND ASSESSMENT DETECTION (Corresponding author)

Associate professor, Space Research and RemoteandGISDepartment, Sensing Chief assistant, Remote Sensing and GIS Department, Space Research and Chief assistant,RemoteandGISDepartment, Sensing Remote sensinghave become remote sensing, highresolu- 1 , Eugenia Roumenina K. c c and . habitats andbiodiversity. anthropogenic loadingin order to protect measures on andrestrictions conservation called thebirds Directive), areto subject ofwildbirds (usually on theconservation andDirective 79/409/EEC Directive inbrief) and ofwildfaunaflora(theHabitats ofnaturalhabitats EEC ontheconservation the European Union(EU)–Directive 92/43/ establishment isbasedonthedirectives of ofhabitats–NATURAnetwork 2000,which oftheEuropean ecologicalthat are part ForestDirective (2000/60/EC). resources as INSPIRE(2007/2/EC), Water Framework in several directives, EUframework such data for isunderscored governance also –(Cal/Val).products ofRS The importance and validationofsatellite dataandsatellite forSatellites (CEOS)andnetworks calibration Observation (GEOS), Commission for Earth System Observation (EU), GlobalEarth (GMES)oftheEuropean Union and Security forsuch asGlobalMonitoring Environment documentsandprogramsin anumberofkey ofremote sensing(RS)isnoted The importance INTRODUCTION 2* 221.03.2012 10:05:29 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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In the late 90sof the20 In Orders 5400.5and450.1. levels oftoxicity are given bytheUSDOE for theprotection ofbiotaandminimum United (USA),guidelines States ofAmerica 2000 habitatsincludeionizingradiation.In Assessment NATURA (EIA)concerning Impact which requirements for Environmental of thebiota,suchasUK–Englandand Wales, adopted rulesto protect thenonhumanpart and directives. have Somecountries already in theirrecommendations andregulations biota, asareflectionoftheguidelinessetout ofthe (TLVs) for humanandnonhumanpart of determination Threshold Limit Values are dealingwiththeCommission (EC) Atomic Energy (IAEA)andEuropean Agency organizations, suchastheInternational levelOn aninternational several international abiotic andbioticstressors. protection offorests affected byvarious i.e. 2,4and5,whichdefinemeasures for 2006–2015”, outlinesthree strategic actions, ofForestryDevelopment inBulgaria Sector name “National Strategy for Sustainable subsequently revised andadopted under of Forestry 2003–2013”, inBulgaria Sector and Strategy “Sustainable Development theadopted NationalForestBulgaria, Policy ofnaturalresources. and conservation In the vegetation stress for sustainableuse ofmonitoring importance international with 8indicators, whichunderscore the of forest and stress” disturbances appear 2–Element2.1 Criteria occurrence “The –Canada,(UN), andseveral nationalcriteria Organization (FAO) oftheUnited Nations prepared bytheFood andAgrigulture for sustainableforest management andindicatorsby [Franklin, 2001]thecriteria Environment” [About COST, 2011].As noted andAdaptation inPollutedMitigation entitled action “Climate ChangeandForest Europe isoutlinedincurrent COST FP0903 forest resources for in scienceandsociety ofstress situationsofThe importance forest decline”. For example, asaresult of led to theemergence ofso-called “New with acidificationofsoiland acidrainhave 5 3 th century, problems data. data, andthesecondisHRLandsat satellite information sources –fieldgeochemical includes dataobtainedfrom independent plants intheexaminedregions. The first identify theabioticstress inconiferous Two groups ofdatahave beenusedto Municipality, Sofia-city, Bulgaria. landscapes in Teyna basin,NoviIskar River data. ofstudyisconiferousThe subject Resolution(HR)Landsatsatellite using High the abioticstress ofconiferous landscapes The aimofthestudyisto andassess detect Chuvieco, 2008]. Gershenzon, 1997;Mardirossian, 2000; forest fires andtheirconsequences[Garbuk, ofand 5ismadetheglobalmonitoring VEGETATION 1and2onboard ofSPOT 4 European (ESA),andSPOT SpaceAgency (AATSR)Radiomter onboard Envisat of ERS-2, Advanced Along-Track Scanning (ATSR-1) (ATSR-2) aboard theERS-1and and theAlong-Track ScanningRadiomter Spectrometer (MERIS)Resolution Imaging Space Administration (NASA),Medium NOAA-AVHRR ofNationalAeronautics and from EOS-MODIS- series TERRA andAQUA, methods. With lowresolution spectrometers situations, whichare quoted usingRS 2008]. Fires anddroughts are otherstressful large sites Naydenova, [Staykova, industrial to four offtheareas kilometres around TLVs. The mostaffected are landsinto three 8160 haare contaminated five timesthe enterprises,close to ofwhich industrial an area of44,900ha,61.3%themare covermetalloids from activities industrial metalsandagricultural landwithheavy republic [Stoyanov, 1999].Contaminated are about1%ofthetotal area ofthe 90% oftotal contaminated land, which from plantsisapproximately industrial of contaminated metals soilswithheavy theproportion Bulgaria et al., 2005].In [Omasa,Nouchi developed Mgdeficiency the Sudetenland area, about8000hahas soil acidificationintheOre in Mountains MATERIALS AND METHODS 221.03.2012 10:05:29 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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5 4 ( radionuclides Cr) andnaturalartificial metals andmetalloids(Cu, Zn,Pb, Co, Ni, Mn, 1) GPSmeasurements; 2)contents ofheavy a filegeodatabaseinArcGIS/ArcCatalog 9.2: andstoredcollected intable.dbf format into and 2011,thefollowing ground truthingwere in the theground-based During studiesconducted Data Field Reference Laboratory of Radioecology and Reference of Radioecology Laboratory in Analyses were performed “Accredited CANBERRA andhyper cleanGe-detector. multichannel analyzer DSA1000,madeby analysiswithby gamma-spectrometric of naturalradionuclidesisdetermined and BDSISO18589–2standards. The content forInstitute Standardization (BDS)17.4.5.01 outinaccordance withBulgarian is carried andsamplingscheme The datacollection forlaboratories therespective elements(Fig. 1). standards theinternational licensed after in 235 U, U, 234 Iskra Th, uranium mining section in 2010 in2010 uraniumminingsection Fig. 1. Map of ground truthing from the catchment area of Teyna River basin Teyna of River area catchment the from truthing ground 1. of Fig. Map 226 Ra, Ra, 40 K) insoils, measured K) module QUAC inENVI[ENVIAtmospheric rangeusingthe licensed respective spectral channelsinthe was appliedontheselected (QUAC) Correctiion Atmospheric algorithm or Level 1G(systematic QUick corrected). Level 1Gt(systematic corrected) terrain of processing –Level corrected), 1T(terrain Landsat 5 TM, isinGeoTIFF fileformat for level of The datastored inthegeo-database TM from thefollowing years 1). (Table raster catalog includesimagesofLandsat5 in afilegeodatabasewascomposed. The for ofthisstudy, thepurposes araster catalog manage thegeospatialinformation required order toIn beableto store, visualize and Satellite data etal. 2001]. Misheva, IEC 61452andISO18589–3[Naydenov, Science “N. Pushkarov” inaccordance with Studies”Radioisotope ofSoil attheInstitute 221.03.2012 10:05:29 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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technogeochemical state for 1993and2011 sites [McCoy, 2005]. The assessmentofthe within themto thesample determine a stratifiedrandomsampling wasmade andplants were subsequentlyextracted [Filchev, 2009]. The landscapesofconiferous thelinearcombinationmethod capes after landscapes united in98lands- elementary classification oftheFAO, 452 whichcomprises thesoil after 5) Soils–mainsoiltypes et al., 2006];4) Vegetation –forest types; [Kottek classification ofKoppen-Kottek, theclimate after 3) Climate –climatictype oflandscapes;slope, geochemicaltypes and inclinationofthe 2) Relief–aspect [Mücher etal., 2010]:1)Geology–lithology; according to theLANMAP methodology of theunificationthematiclayers [Filchev,River 2009]wascreated asaresult (DLM)forModel theriverbasinof Teyna approach isadopted. ADigital Landscape the examinedstudyarea, thelandscape fieldsin radionuclide pollutiondistribution order toIn metaland establishtheheavy Methods and 2010–2011withthesatellite data. geochemical assessmentsin1993(1996) the respective fieldmeasurements and 1991 and2003–2011,inorder to correlate bundled into timeseries, two i.e. 1990– The satellite dataisthensubdividedand –User’s Module Correction Guide, 2010]. 5 5 No ada /M1 ue21 30ºI h.T il LPDAAC, USGS LPDAAC, USGS the.MTL In fi le LPDAAC, USGS the.MTL In fi le LPDAAC, USGS the.MTL In fi le 63.07º LPDAAC, USGS the.MTL In fi le 57.69º the.MTL In fi le 60.81º LPDAAC, USGS 19June2011 LPDAAC, USGS 59.73º the.MTL In fi le 3August 2010 LPDAAC, USGS the.MTL In fi 60.18º Landsat5/TM le 15July2009 the.MTL In fi Landsat5/TM le 8 26July2007 53.11º Landsat5/TM 58.76º 7 23July 2006 Landsat5/TM 57.07º 6 16August 2003 Landsat5/TM 5 28June 1991 Landsat5/TM 4 11June 1990 Landsat5/TM 3 Landsat5/TM 2 1 radiometer Satellite/ Table 1. List of Landsat images stored into the geo-database the into stored images Table Landsat 1. of List Date Solar azimuth Solar Date to thebackground –Z oftechnogenicfactor pollutionwithrespect was madeusingthetotal contamination decline in range is:2.29–32.18,whichindicates fourfold for 1993(1996),whereas for 2010–2011the the by [Filchev & Yordanova, 2011],itisfound that According to previous research out carried technogeochemical pollution[Penin, 1997]. Z 3) 20–30;4)30–50;5)50–60,and6)>60. The classification system: 1)0-10;2)10–20; is reclassified according to thefollowing the background concentration. The element inthesoilsampleand where K elements with region; and for determined activities theexamined background concentrationsandspecific soilhorizon to the radionuclides insurface ofnaturaland thespecificactivities metalandmetalloidconcentrations of heavy coefficient >1(or1.5)representing theratio where Z с c c = valuesabove 50–60are found to indicate = Z С

∑ c valuesare ranging from 3.13to 129.24 / С C K i n background istheconcentrationofchemical = c 1 isthetechnogenic concentration K Z c c –( values between two observation observation two valuesbetween parameters n Calibration –thenumberofchemical n K (2) c –1 (1) –1) >1(or1.5). c [Saetetal., 1990]: Source C background Z c index is 221.03.2012 10:05:31 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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5 6 =100( formula for calculatingthe VCI is: 1998]. et al., 1998;Unganai,Kogan, The 1987;Seiler, [Kogan, Kogan condition –(VCI) dataisderivedindexofvegetation NDVI stress causedbydrought amultitemporal phenophase. To monitor thesignals ofabiotic oracertain for ofobservation aperiod maximum andtheminimumvalueofNDVI, the ratioofdifferences the between thevegetationcharacterize conditionusing The Vegetation (VCI), Condition Index presented 2). on(Table Landsat 5 TM datasetusedinthisstudyare The estimated vegetation indicesfrom mining activities. the anthropogenicfrom impacts uranium and restoration measures for mitigationof periods. toThis isattributed thereclamation from DLM, which new landscapes serve asa from DLM,whichnewlandscapesserve combined withconiferous landscapesderived The reclassified thematiclayers of 100 –optimumconditions. from 0to adverse extremely conditionsto [Seiler, valuesrange etal., Kogan 1998].Index vegetation, andtopography oftheregion climate, soildiversity, andamount of type ecological potential on naturalresources, The VCI isbasedontheconcept ofthe Triangular Vegetation (TVI) Index Vegetation (MSAVI) Index Modifi edSoil Adjusted Normalized Diff Vegetation (NDVI) Index Index (NDWI) Index Normalized Diff NDVI – eeainidxEuto Source Equation Vegetation index Table 2. Vegetation indices used for detection and assessment of abiotic stress abiotic of assessment and detection for used indices Vegetation Table 2. erence erence Water min )/( VCI VCI NDVI = max –

NDVI

V R R R R TVI NDWI SV R R R R MSAVI NDVI =−−− =( 2 1 = =+−+−− ⎣⎦ ⎡⎤ RNIR min 2 200 120 () () 2 1 RR RR Z ). ⎣⎦ ⎡⎤ I SWIR NIR I SWIR NIR 2121

c – ()() are (3) + − Rred Rred 0 0 0 680 800 800 800 2 5 7 550 670 550 720 )/( RNIR of case of VIs valueswithineachclass. In ofthestatisticaldistribution knowledge prior chosen, asmore reliable, asthere isno of present thesecondapproach work is [ArcGIS DesktopHelp, 2008].For purposes ofthevaluesineachclass and variance 2) calculatingdistancesusingthemean distances basedontheclassaverage, and ArcMap 9.2are basedon:1)calculating for ofadendrogram construction inArcGIS/ coefficient ofvariation. approachesThe two values ofthedistances, andtheaverage merging classes, basedontheupdated closest to Eachiteration theoutermost. is and iterative ofallpairsclasses collection pair ofclassesfrom theinputsignature file each the estimationofdistancesbetween ofthedendrogramconstruction begins with use hierarchical algorithm. clustering The in ArcGIS/ArcInfo 9.2(Academic license) VIs ofLandsat5 TM. The tool “Dendrogram” of classesderivedfrom themultitemporal compiled onthebasisofsignatures of polluted landscapes. Dendrograms are differences withthetheoretical classes indices are analyzed for and similarities clustering, groups ofvaluesvegetation HR satellite data. Then usinghierarchical usingthe oftheirseparability terms VIs of of polluted landscapesare compared in in them. Theoretically classes constructed and search for anddifferences similarities ofclasses’comparison polluted landscapes landscapes. This statisticsisbasedonthe from theclassescontaminated coniferous basis for ofdescriptivestatistics thederivation ()( ) + Rred Rred ) Rouse etal., Rouse 1974 ) Broge, Leblanc, 2000 Qi etal., 1994 Gao, 1996 221.03.2012 10:05:32 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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values of NDVI, NDWI, MSAVI, NDWI, values ofNDVI, for and the TVI metals andradionuclides–1993(1996). The the ground-based measurements ofheavy coincidence of VIs classeswiththe effect relationships ofthevalues correlations andregression modelofdose- pollution- of total oftehnogenic contamination factor 1991 withmodelledenvironmental fields Landsat satellite datafor theyears 1990and of theconiferous landscapesisdoneinbythe ofdataonthecurrent stateThe comparison VIs isbuilt. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 5 7 No 06 700131060930700.437 0.279 0.770 0.065 0.933 0.110 0.819 0.879 1.086 0.070 1.332 0.907 0.248 0.153 1.096 0.052 0.359 0.725 1.035 0.063 2700 –0.236 1.032 0.159 0.719 0.027 0.787 31500 0.693 3 0.673 0.786 0.202 14400 0.038 0.730 35 0.243 12600 50–60 0.627 0.798 0.070 16 0.105 0.251 30–50 0.836 5 0.048 14 2700 0.595 20–30 0.793 4 0.082 0.306 0.049 0.593 31500 10–20 3 0.311 3 0.687 0.278 0.237 14400 0.079 2 0.280 35 0.212 12600 50–60 0.196 0.420 0.060 16 0.155 0.568 30–50 0.408 5 0.078 14 2700 0.183 20–30 0.361 4 0.183 0.564 0.033 0.196 31500 10–20 3 0.533 3 0.205 0.641 0.234 14400 2 0.576 35 0.297 12600 50–60 0.458 0.660 16 0.131 30–50 0.717 5 14 2700 0.426 20–30 0.655 4 0.420 31500 10–20 3 3 0.524 14400 2 35 12600 50–60 16 30–50 5 14 20–30 4 10–20 3 2 (classes) Table 3. Descriptive of clas zonal statistics Zc Zc Z c for of thecorresponding period iesArea(m Pixels of NDVI, NDWI, MSAVI, TVI (1990-1991). TVI MSAVI, NDWI, NDVI, of 2 i a ag Average Range Max Min ) Z c classes, Z c and МSAVI NDWI NDVI ses contaminated landscapesfrom time series TVI difference intheaverage ofthe2 of 0.03–0.02%thevaluesof. the In TVI indicesMSAVI-of theNDVI, NDWI, theorder classes 2and3donotdiffer significantly for table showsthattheaverage the between 1990–1991 are presented 3). on,(Table The average inthe valuesofNDVI showsthattheThe 1990–1991period (s) from oneanotherispresented (Fig. 2). 0.12. The grouping ofclassesintheirvalues thisdifference0.003–0.008, whilein is TVI of theprevious group are notaquite bigger Differences inthestandard deviations(SDs) class isoftheorder of0.12. Deviation (SD) Standard Z nd c classes and3 221.03.2012 10:05:32 rd 1

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5 8 in theclass, whichissmallestinthe2 order. The same is for thestandard deviation change relatively smoothlyinascending the highestin5 of relatively uncontaminated landscapesand and two-year multispectral satellite multispectral datais and two-year ofstress inthedetermination of NDVI inone separation ofthegroups, andthereliability not sufficientlyreliable method for the and standard deviationof thegroups is The grouping onthebasisofaverage mergedat 0.65,andthetwo clusters at0.90. 2 groupsclustering thevaluesof4 The figure showsthathierarchical k-means ispresentedclasses ofvaluesNDVI (Fig. 2). contaminated landscapes. The grouping of nd classatadistanceof0.26,5 Fig. 2. Dendrograms of zonal statistics extracted from Landsat 5 TM VIs images: images: 5TMVIs Landsat from extracted statistics zonal of Dendrograms 2. Fig. th classoftechnogenical NDVI, NDWI, MSAVI, TVI. (1990–1991) TVI. MSAVI, NDWI, NDVI, th and3 nd rd th class class and the NDVI isthatthegroupingthe NDVI ofthe5 The difference inMSAVI with incomparison 0.28, 0.59,and0.58. distances respectively: to thevaluesofNDVI. similarly This isat that showstheclasses are grouped The grouping ofclassesisshownin(Fig. 2) increasing order ofclass2to class5. classes. The standard deviationoscillates in in ascendinganddescendingorder ofthe for topsoil reflectance, showsrelative stability withcorrections generally aderivativeofNDVI vegetation indexMSAVI,The spectral whichis the useofthisdatatype. ofabioticstresstimeliness ofdetection with not thatlarge, whichaffect thespeedand th 221.03.2012 10:05:32 and 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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the mostcontaminated landscapes – 5 separation ofadjacentclasses 2and3,while isdueto to thesharp landscapes inNDWI TVI for distinguishingclassesofcontaminated The difference power ofthediscriminative 3 separable ratherthan2 which indicates thattheyare more easily distance of0.33,andthen4 increase inpollutionfrom 2 indices declineindescendingorder withthe other The average unlike valuesofthe TVI of tehnogenic pollution– as well asto thetotal contaminationfactor of thegroundwater seepageinlandscapes, both to thetotal water content andthelevel significantly larger, whichmay beattributed, in theclassesofpolluted landscapesis total water content ofconiferous vegetation water statusofvegetation, itfollows thatthe As theindexisusedfor assessmentofthe i.e. 5,iswell values. separated byusingNDWI with themostcontaminated landscapes, provingin thevaluesofNDWI, thattheclass 1.91. This group follows thecourseofincrease of 0.67andfinallytheclass5atadistance by addingthevaluesofclass4atadistance a distanceof0.61,andthento thefirstcluster classes,that thefirsttwo i.e. 2and3,group at shape ofthedendrogramme canbeseen class 2to 3).(Fig. class5(Table From 2). of theSDwithincrease ofpollution,from slowly,relatively alongwithsomeoftheincrease average theNDWI valuesalsoincreaseIn of stressful situations. enforceability oftheMSAVI, asanindicator metalloids, andradionuclidesornon- metals,caused bypollutionwithheavy non-linear dependenceofstress effects increase inthevalues, whichwitnessesfor pollution donotfollow thecourseofan However, classesof to theNDVI, similarly class isgrouped at4.20. finally 5 firstjointhe2 that TVI classes (Fig.of thevalues 2),shows TVI sample for class5,i.e. 3pixels. The grouping values theSDincrease, althoughthesmall is seenalsothatwiththedecliningaverage 5 9 rd classisatarelatively large distance, th class at 4.20 similarly to NDWI. to NDWI. classat4.20similarly nd and3 Z nd c . and4 nd th to 5 to in0.75,and rd classata th th class. It class. It class. the th

the overlaid reclassifiedthe overlaid signaturesare builtusingtheextracted from The dendrograms for 2003–2011 VIs, which calculation. pixel) anddueto ignoring zero valuesinthe size ofthetest sites ofthezones (i.e. about1 2 3). (Table The zonal statisticsfor the1 ungrouped classesremain the1 3 which showsrelatively better representation 4 and 4(Fig. values ofthe3 3).TheNDWI isgroupedNDWI in3classes: 1,2and3, to thedendrogramSimilarly ofthe NDVI, to abioticstress.landscapes subject regards oftheclasses thediscrimination index hasalmostthesamepresentation as whichindicates thatthe the valuesofNDVI, again atadistanceof0.780andissimilarto figure oftheclassesis showsthatclustering of classesMSAVI are shownin(Fig. 3). The coniferous vegetation. Clusters ofsignatures of theindexfor registration ofchangesinthe which showsrelatively more stablebehavior MSAVIthe NDVI, hassmallervaluesoftheSD, to theaverage oftheclasses. to Comparing classes, between weak i.e. distinction 0.01 The MSAVI showsapproximately thesame theclasses 0.780. is atthedistancebetween class. ofdendrogramThe pointofclustering inferred thattheaverage ofthe2 the grouping values, oftheNDVI canbe landscapes, are presented on(Fig. 3).From byreclassifyingderived thevaluesof aretechnogenic pollution,whichinturn basin, whichare merged withtheareas of of the middleandlower part Teyna River coniferous landscapesoftheblackpine, in units. The zones are created onthebasisof the technogenical contaminated landscape ofvaluesin thedistribution characterizing minimum andmaximumvalues, range, SD, zone level isretrieved: average, median, adescriptive statistics onatime series 9 years, i.e. 2003–2011.Usingthesocreated and VCI VIs from Landsat5 TM isspanning MSAVI, NDWI, ofNDVI, The timeseries TVI, nd th rd classresemble oneanother. The only classapproaches oneanother at0.816, class is not extracted dueto thesmall classisnotextracted Z c andconiferous st and4 nd rd st and and and Z 221.03.2012 10:05:33 th 1 c

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6 0 values ofthe considerably larger differences oftheaverage the otherindices, shows Unlike TVI landscapes. metalsand radionuclidesconiferousheavy separation ofcontaminated andstressed of for withtheNDVI incomparison the of NDWI No 03.8––––––– – – 32.777 – – – 17.892 22.576 – 94.248 – – 14.326 – 94.248 76.436 – 0.269 – – – 76.436 0 – 0.447 – 0.763 0 – - 8100 – – – 0.906 0.576 53100 – 9 – – 1.048 1.571 0.068 – – 30–32.18 59 – – 20–30 0.142 4 1.231 0.051 – – 0.834 10–20 3 – – 8100 –0.340 – – 2 8.29–10 – 0.257 0.821 53100 – 1 9 – – 0.914 0.259 0.328 – – 30–32.18 59 – – 20–30 0.658 0.901 4 0.293 – – 0.328 10–20 3 – – 8100 0.642 – – 2 8.29–10 – 0.254 0.293 53100 – 1 9 – – 0.429 0.369 0.087 – – 30–32.18 59 – 20–30 0.175 0.479 4 0.070 – – 0.721 10–20 3 – – 8100 0.109 – 2 8.29–10 0.333 0.699 53100 – 1 9 – – 0.838 0.350 – 30–32.18 59 20–30 0.504 0.816 4 – – 10–20 3 – 8100 0.466 2 8.29–10 53100 – 1 9 – 30–32.18 59 20–30 4 – 10–20 3 2 8.29–10 1 Table 4. Descriptive of zonal classes statistics cont (classes) Zc Zc Z c between the3 between iesArea(m Pixels NDWI, MSAVI, and TVI. (2003-2011) TVI. and MSAVI, NDWI, 2 rd i a ag Average Range Max Min ) and4 th МSAVI NDWI NDVI

VCI TVI aminated landscapes from the time series of NDVI, better presentation incomparison ofthe TVI little distanceoftheclasses, whichshowsa of 3 theclasses0.627. between The grouping cluster ofthe1 0.2(Fig.class –nearly 3).Grouping inasingle values of1 are subtledifferences intheirvalues. Lower rd and4 st and2 th classislogical because there st and2 nd classare separated ata nd classisatdistance Deviation (SD) Standard 221.03.2012 10:05:33 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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is poor–2 landscapes according to preserve VCI index The overall vegetation conditionofconiferous visible area ofthespectrum. 1 additionalchannelinthegreen zone ofthe that theindexusesinformation from with previous indices. This isdueto thefact values inthe3 to 33,whichshowsthelarge of variation The SDfor from thesameclassesvaries 18 classesfromthe two 14.32to 3). 22.57(Table shows adifference intheaverage valuesfor soil. The phenophaseunderinvestigation concentration oftehnogenic pollutioninthe as wasnoted, isincreased byincreasing the regarding thevegetation greenness, which sensitivity theNDVI which reflects 6 1 nd Fig. 3. Dendrograms of zonal statistics extracted from Landsat 5 TM VIs images: images: 5TMVIs Landsat from extracted statistics zonal of Dendrograms 3. Fig. grade to 3 rd class. The grouping ofthese rd grade onaverage, NDVI, NDWI, MSAVI, TVI, and VCI. (2003–2011) VCI. and TVI, MSAVI, NDWI, NDVI, grouping ofthe2 closeto the classes isat0.45,whichfairly (Spearman) with the level(Spearman) ofsignificance, Z contamination VIs. Correlation and ofNDVI as well asitsinversion therate between of the creation ofalinearregression model positive correlation, whichdoesnotpermit the total index The figure thevaluesof showsthatbetween are showninFig. 4. oftehnogeochemicalfactor pollution– for 19900–1991andthevaluesoftotal The relationship thevaluesof between VIs in classes. and showsgreater thandifference similarity c has R 2 =0.74(Pearson) and Z c and VIs, there isalowlinear nd and3 rd class in the NDVI, classintheNDVI, R 2 =0.675 Z 221.03.2012 10:05:33 1 c

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6 2 of NDVI, NDWI, MSAVI, TVI from Landsat and and Landsat from TVI MSAVI, NDWI, NDVI, of Fig. 4. Correlation bi-plots and residuals of the actual values values actual the of residuals and bi-plots Correlation 4. Fig. Z c . (1990–1991) 221.03.2012 10:05:33 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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for and the 21.789 for compared withthedynamicsof should betested separately intime, and byLandsat observation TM, whichdynamics of dynamics ofvegetationtheperiod during derived from the NDVI and NDVI with derived from andNDVI theNDVI highest correlation iswith VCI, whichis low,of correlation are very suchasthe shows thatthevaluesofcoefficient beyond thescopeofthisstudy. Correlation whichis ofobservation the sameperiods pollution – of thetotal oftechnogeochemical factor the Landsat TM (2003–2010)andthevalues The relationships the between VIs valuesof 0.373 for R R technogenic pollution. This lowvalueof weak correlation withatotal coefficientof other indicesdonothave, orhave avery For theyare the TVI levels ofsignificance (Pearson) and 6 3 2 2 =0.662 is explained by the variation ofseasonal isexplainedbythevariation F : <0.001.For MSAVI and Fig. 5. Correlation bi-plots and residuals of NDVI, VCI from Landsat and and Landsat VCI from NDVI, of residuals and bi-plots 5.Correlation Fig. F Z : 13.78andF: 0.002respectively. c F has Z : <0.001.Correlation ofNDWI c (Spearman) with (Spearman) are showninFig. 5. The figure R 2 R =0.675 2 =0.695(Pearson) and F R : 2 F =0.658and : 20.508for (Spearman) at Z F c =17.791 : R F 2 <0.001. =0.73 R Z 2 Z = c c , for . All F : of NDVI and of NDVI R F for equations between theindicesand equations between for inversion ofthederivedregression the the establishedweak relationships between caused byuraniummining. This isbasedon of abioticstress ofconiferous landscapes can beusedfor andassessment detection satellitemultispectral datafrom Landsat conclusion,itwasfoundIn thattheHR lack ofcorrelation. andthe of NDWI significance F: drastically, while thevegetation greenness is water content oftheplantsisnotdiminished abiotic stress, itcouldbeconcludedthatthe vegetation, andtheresulting physiological inrelationthe NDWI to thewater content in index MSAVI. Dueto abetter presentation of and that NDVI better thanthe VCI perform the analysisofresults itwasfound also CONCLUSIONS : 3.29in 2 isrespectively 0.01at F Z : <0.05.For MSAVI and c and VIs, whichhowever, donotpermit F <0.08.For the thecoefficients TVI Z 12.60 for c has Z c is R R 2 F = 0.41 with level of =0.41withlevel of 2 Z =0.18with : <0.002.Correlation F c (2003–2011) : 0.28and Z c : R 2 =0.15with F Z F : 0.60or c =4.19 . From 221.03.2012 10:05:34 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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6 4 Mardirossian,6. G.H.(1999)NaturalEcocatastrophes andAerospace Techniques andInstru- 5. S.V.,Garbuk, Gershenzon, V.E. AandB. (1997)SpaceRemote Sensing. Moscow: Gao, B. –Anormalized difference (1996)NDWI 4. water indexfor remote sensingofvegeta- ofGlobalChange– Chuvieco, Observation The RoleofSatellite E.,(Ed.) Remote Earth Sens- 3. 2. Broge, N.H.,Leblanc, green E.(2001)Deriving crop area indexandcanopychlorophyll 1. Aronoff, S.,Dunn,C.E.,Reilly, G.(1985)BiogeochemicalanomalliesandLandsatimagery: of the20 content ofconifers discovered inthe1980s renewal andincrease inthetotal water a non-specificreactionofthevegetation theconclusionof This argument supports thegreenincorporates channel initsformula. asanindicator, byusing observed TVI asit vegetation greenness ofplants. This isbetter total water content, butalso to increase the manifestations to theincrease islinked inthe be onaphysiological level, andoneofits abioticstressto ismostlikely the observed more sensitive ofstress. to thistype As noted, for metals, heavy metalloidsandnatural Present study usesgeochemicalanalyses HRdata. multispectral of ofafulltimeseries case ofavailability abiotic stress ofconiferous landscapes, in as arelatively goodtool for assessmentof can beconcludedalsothat VCI couldserve REFERENCES ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS (in Bulg.). mentation for theirStudy. Sofia:Prof. Academic Drinov Publishing Marin house, 368p. (in Russian). tion liquidwater from space. Remote SensingofEnvironment, Vol. 58,N3,pp. 257–266. 223 р. theGlobalEnvironment, B.V.,ing inMonitoring Science+BusinessMedia Springer 2008, Vol. 81,N1,pp. 45–57. ofwinter wheatfrom reflectance data.Remotedensity SensingofEnvironment, spectral Energy 85–4,pp. andMiners, ewan GeologySurvey, Saskatchewan 116–124. onthe Saskatch- a comparison Report, Wollaston Miscellaneous area, Lake Saskatchewan. th century [Aronoff etal., 1985].It century BAS by ESRI Inc. andSCGIS.BAS byESRIInc. SRTI- is granted to RSandGISDepartment, ArcGIS/ArcInfo 9.2academiclicensesoftware and valuablediscussionsontheresearch. The for theyears 2010–2011andtheircomments thegeochemicalanalysesofsoils for making ofSoilScience the Institute “N. Pushkarov” Studies” andRadioisotope Radioecology at from “Accredited Reference of Laboratory deeply appreciated to theircolleagues L. Filchev isabeneficiary. The authorsare ofwhichChiefAssistantRepublic ofBulgaria, Education, Youth andScienceofthe Development” of OPoftheMinistry 02/63/170608 withinthe “Human Resource No.BG051PO001/07/3.3-under Contract Caused byNaturalDisasters” Project Environment andPrevention ofDamages for andPreservation ofthe Monitoring Aerospace Technologies asaPrerequisite a Young Scholars’ Team intheField of “Enhancing theQualificationandRetaining radionuclide insoilsfinancedunderthe  221.03.2012 10:05:34 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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20. Rouse, J.W.,20. Haas, R.H.etal. vegetation systems (1973)Monitoring intheGreat Plains with 19. Qi, J., Chehbouni,A.,Huete, A.R.,Kerr, Y.H., Sorooshian, S.(1994)Amodifiedsoiladjusted ofthelandscape,Pennin, Sofia:Publishing House R.(1997)HandbookofGeochemistry 18. “St. Mücher, J.A., C.A., Klijn, 17. Wascher, D.M., Schaminée, J.H.J. (2010).AnewEuropean Landscape R. 16. McCoy, 15. Kottek 14. Kogan, F.N.Kogan, 14. (1987) Vegetation indexfor areal analysisofcrop condition.Proceedings ofthe J. (Eds.) (2005)Plant Kok, Responsesto Nouchi,I.,De 13. AirPollutionOmasa, K., andGlobal Franklin, S.E.(2001)Remote Sensingfor SustainableForest12. PUBLISH- LEWIS Management, 11. Filchev, L., Yordanova, studiesoftheeffects ofuranium I.(2011)Landscape-geochemical 10. Filchev, L.(2009)Design ofdigital landscapemodelofthe Teyna riverwatershed for the 9. Stoyanov, metalsintheenvironment S.(1999)Heavy andfood -toxic damageto the P.Staykova, 8. Naydenova, C.(2008)Contamination oftheenvironment andfood withheavy 7. Naydenov, L. M.,Misheva, Yordanova, I.Stanev, D., Dureva, ofProce- L.(2001)Collection 6 5 NASA, 1974. Proceedings In: ERTS. of Symposium,10–14 December,Third ERTS Washington DC,USA, vegetation index(MSAVI). Remote SensingofEnvironment, Vol. 48,N2,pp. 119–126. Ohridski”.Kliment (inBulg.). guish landscapes. Ecological Indicators, Vol. 10,pp. 87–103. Classification (LANMAP): methodology to Atransparent, distin- flexibleanduser-oriented Press, 159p. pp. 259–263. Geiger Climate Classification Updated, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 15,N3, Meteorological Society, West Lafayette, IN. 18 Change. Tokyo, Springer–Verlag, 300p. PressERS –CRC LLC. (in Bulg.) (underprint). mining in Teyna riverbasin.Ecological Engineering andEnvironmental Protection (EEEP). pp. 168–173. Participation with International “Space, Ecology, Nanotechnology, Safety” SENS2009, planning. Proceedings oflandscape-ecological purposes ofFifth ScientificConference (in Bulg.) human, clinicalpicture, treatment, andprevention. Sofia:Pensoft – PublishSaiSet-Agri. (in Bulg.). metals intheregion ScientificConference ofKardjali. ofEcology, Plovdiv, pp. 551–559. fromObjects NaturalEnvironment, Sofia:NTSAN.(inBulg.). Isotopes inRadioactive dures forRadioactive onAlpha,Beta,andGamma Determinations th Conference onAgricultural andForest Meteorology (1987),pp. 103–106,American , M.,Grieser, C.,Rudolf, J., Beck, B., Rubel, F. (2006) World oftheKoppen- Map (2005) Field Sensing, inRemote New Methods York-London: The Guilford 221.03.2012 10:05:34 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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6 6 27. ENVI Atmospheric Correction Module – User's Guide. (2010), ITT VIS Inc. –User'sGuide. Module Correction (2010),ITT ENVI Atmospheric 27. ArcGIS Desktop Help.26. (2008).Redlands, CA,ESRIInc. About COST.25. (2011)Brussels, COST Office. 24. Vodyanitskii, Yu.N. (2010)Equationsfor assessingthetotal contaminationofsoilswith F.N.Unganai, L.S.,Kogan, 23. (1998)Drought andCorn Monitoring Yield Estimation inSouth- Seiler, F.N., R.A.,Kogan, 22. Sullivan,J. (1998)AVHRR-Based Vegetation аnd Temperature Condi- 21. Saet, Yu.E., Revich,B.A., Yanin, E.P. oftheEnvironment. Moscow, (1990)Geochemistry Ne- methods (2007,withco-authors). usingremote sensingandground-based caused byuraniumminingindustry conflicts Designing aspatialmodelofthe dynamics ofland-use Based Data(2010,withco-authors); servation ofSoils, servation Vol. 43,N10,pp. 1184–1188. metalsand metalloids.heavy EurasianSoilScience, Degradation, Rehabilitation, andCon- from Africa AVHRRern Data.Remote SensingofEnvironment, Vol. 63,N3,pp. 219–232. pp. 481–484. fortion Indices Drought inArgentina. Advances Detection inSpaceResearch, Vol. 21,N3, dra, 335p. Russian). (In Eugenia K. Roumenina Eugenia K. LachezarH.Filchev Land-Use Using High Resolution Satellite Images andGround- Resolution Satellite Images Land-Use UsingHigh LandscapePlanning of web 2011,withco-authors); 05April ofNOAAusing aseries AVHRR images(Published NDVI onthe ofwinter crop publications: Monitoring Main statusinBulgaria sensing, GIS,landscapeecology, spatialmodeling, cartography. Herresearch remote atBAS(SRTI-BAS). concerns Institute atSpaceResearch and Sensing andGISDepartment Technology Committee, in2003.Since2005she isheadofRemote Bulgaria Attesting Higher oftheRepublicBulgaria, Ministers Committee, from in2002andDoctor Council of Bulgaria Attesting Higher oftheRepublicBulgaria, Ministers of erosion (2009). risk erosionability modelofthe Teina riverwatershed for monitoring planning(2009);Design of oflandscape-ecological purposes digital landscapemodelof Teina riverwatershed for the (2010); Design of issuesandperspectives state-of-the-art, Application ofquantitative methodsinlandscapeecology: ecology, environmental publications: management.Main The focus ofhisresearch liesinremote sensing, GIS,landscape the SpaceResearch and Technology atBAS(SRTI-BAS). Institute degree (Diploma).SinceMarch 2010heisachiefassistantof ofSofia,graduatedUniversity in2006andobtainedtheMaster’s studied Geography at St. Kliment Ohridski studied Geography Ohridski atSt.Kliment received thePh. D. from Council of 221.03.2012 10:05:34 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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Tel.: +31(0)534874507 University of Twente P.O. Box 6,7500AAEnschede, The Netherlands; Fax: +74959382054 Kosygin Street 19,Moscow, 119991RussianFederation; Tel.: +74959393810, 1 Alexandr D. Shalabodov The ecosystemstransfo andfauna. their origin, water chemistry past were oligotrophic andsimilarin isgiven. and Imandra, inthe The lakes Ladoga,Onega,the Russianlarge lakes: aquatic ecosystem changesin long-term the rise ofthemassindividualorganismsthe rise biodiversity,of plankton community and of dominatingcomplexes, increasing index occurs, byreplacement which isconfirmed species recolonizationlakes withnorthern stage ofdecrease ofthetoxic pollution,the formed plankton communities. Onthe inecosystem,turnover dominated inthe ( biogenic inflow. Smallforms oforganisms intoxicconnections conditionsand were increased dueto lackofcompetitive speciesabundanceandbiomass Eurybiontic were biodiversity community decreased. of degradation, speciesabundanceand the decrease ofthetoxic stress. Onthestage trendsand degradation after andrecovery background parameters ecosystem quality: and nutrients. There are three stagesof ofpollutionwithtoxicimpact substances 2 * Tatyana I.Moiseenko 4 3 Tel. [email protected] +78122307838,e-mail: Academy ofSciences, 50,185030,Petrozavodsk, A.Nevsky RussianFederation; Federation; Tel.: (3452)461131,Fax: [email protected] (3452)41-00-59,e-mail: ABSTRACT. 6 EUROPEAN LAKES THE CASE OF THE NORTH-EAST LAKE ECOSYSTEMS UNDER POLLUTION: LONG-TERM CHANGES IN THE LARGE r Northern Northern Water Problems Institute, Research Karelian Centre oftheRussian 7 Corresponding author Tyumen State University ofRussia;Semakova Street 10,625003 Tyumen, Russian Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) Observation Faculty andEarth Science ofGeo-Information -strategists), providing more rapidbiomass V.I. ofRAS andAnalyticalChemistry Vernadsky ofGeochemistry Institute

A retrospective analysisof 1* , Andrey N.Sharov rmed underthe ; e-mail: [email protected] ; e-mail: 4 2 , Alexey A. Voinov period of industrial revolution ofindustrial period inthe18 environment, whichdates backto the Prolonged anthropogenic pollutionofthe recovery. ecosystem, reference condition,disturbance, one. modification, whichdiffers from anatural formation ofitsmature andmore stable decreaseafter ofthetoxic indicates impact upper trophic level. The ecosystem state in ecosystems are efficientlyutilized atthe of thecommunities. Accumulated nutrients substances. of environmental pollutionbytoxic stress andrevealed thesevere hazard biologic systems to anthropogenic transformations and theresponses of of theanthropogenic environmental have given insightinto theregularities mid-19 negative environmental changesinthe century, dramaticallymanifested itselfin INTRODUCTION KEY WORDS: th century. Numerous investigations long-term pollution,aquatic long-term 3 , 221.03.2012 10:05:34 th 1

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6 8 1999; Palmer processesof ecosystem [Depledge, recovery can coordinate aimedatacceleration actions of increasing anddecreasing pressure, one communities andecosystems inconditions ofsuccessions trajectory Knowing mechanism.successions andrecovery role inunderstandingofanthropogenic incalculably. plays akey The ecologytheory proceed completely, nonlinearly, andoften such processes asdegradations andrecoveries andthatiswhycontaminating disturbance Water ecosystems, as arule, suffer multi- a newconfiguration? recover toxic after disturbance, ortheyattain question: isitpossiblefor ecosystems to [Cairns, 2005].Many scientistsraisea toxictheir successionsafter disturbance ofecosystems recovery,scenarios including have beenattempting to predictallthe disturbance. However, onlyrecently scientists thecontaminating after ecosystems recovery Science hasbeencompilinginformation on stream into environment, includingwater. towards thedeclineofdangerous pollutants’ years, theretendency hasbeenadistinct 2006; Palmer in thescientificliterature [Cairns, 2005;Harris, toxic pollutants, hasbeenwell documented decreasing anthropogenic inputs, including ofaquaticecosystems duetorecovery processes ofecosystems recovery. The it ispossibleto efficientlyaccelerate the decreasing anthropogenic loadsare known, under theconditionsofincreasing and successions ofcommunitiesandecosystems of regularities ofrecovery. thetrajectories If the anthropogenic successionsandthe role plays inunderstanding akey theory way. unpredictable often The ecological develop inacomplicated, non-linear, and stress. Hence, theirdegradation andrecovery amulti-contaminant ecosystems experience mentioningthat,asarule, aquatic isworth It oftheirhabitatisalsoevident. preservation ofaquaticecosystems andthe the recovery and itsspeciesdiversity, of theimportance oftheEarth’swater for thesurvival population offresh viewofthecardinal importance In et al., et al. , 2007]. During thelatest , 2007].During 2007]. 1940; Moiseenko 1940; Moiseenko Semenovich, authors inthisregion [Krokhin, on more than30-year investigations ofthe of therelevant publishedresults and also This paperisbasedonananalyticalreview toxicafter disturbance. ofecosystemsestimate to theability recover andto according to theecologytheory ofthese changes to explainthetrajectory recovery; –through degradationcharacteristics –to and theirreduction:from background underanthropogenic lakes load northern of successionswater ecosystems of to reveal themainconsistent patterns the ecosystems; of space analysisofdominantcharacteristics reference conditionsonthebaseofatime- of ecosystem elementsandestimate their aretrospectiveto make analysisofconditions Objectives: of fauna. ofwater chemistry, aswellcharacteristics as forperiod; thisreason theyhave common ecosystem formation thepostglacier during Russia, are byonegenesisof characterized three situated lakes, of intheNorth-West (Fig. ofImandra lake the subarctic 1). These Onegaand Ladoga,Lake Lake Russian lakes: pollutionisthelarge multi-contaminating The representative exampleoflong-term water withtoxic agentsandnutrients. basin thatsuffered from thepollutionof and theBol’shayaBay ofOnegaLake Imandra for Volkhov Bay Kondopoga ofLadogaLake, differentecosystem changesduring periods benthos, andfishconditionsthatreflect indicators ofphytoplankton, zooplankton, andkey main parameters ofwater chemistry thisreview,In attention isfocused onthe paper isbasedondiscontinuousinformation. and, ofthelakes therefore,monitoring this there hasbeennocontinuouslong-term Although muchinformation isavailable, 2002].2002; Antopogenic Modification, Yakovlev, 1990;Moiseenko, Kudrjavtzeva, et al. , 1996;Moiseenko, 221.03.2012 10:05:35 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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6 9

Fig. 1. Map of Imandra, Onega, and Ladoga lakes and locations of the main industries on their shores 221.03.2012 10:05:35 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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7 0 anthropogenic stress [Falk to manage whentrying sites) isimportant found orminimallydisturbed atundisturbed reference conditions(ecological conditions is above thePolar of Knowledge cycle. lake ofRussia;Imandra the European part situated in theNorth-Taiga ecoregion in are ofLadoga,Onega,andImandra Lakes several millionpeoplelivingin258300km the Ladogaarea affects thelife standard of in theworld. The state oftheenvironment in is oneofthe15largest freshwater reservoirs ofEurope,Ladoga, whichisthelargest lake andecosystemwater recovery. quality provide forindustrialization abenchmark to prior background conditionsofthelake an area of813km Peninsula,in theKola Russia. has The lake issituated withintheArcticCircleImandra watershed area. Ladoga oftheLake equaling to aquarter about 56300km 120 m,respectively. watershed covers Its average andmaximumdepthsof30 temperatures, thinlayer ofsoil, slow inputs,influence ofatmospheric low (high oftheNorth The climaticfactors and 13m,respectively. with maximumandaverage depthsof 67 bynarrowmain basinsconnected passages, complex shoreline andconsistsofthree and thevolume of11km km 9800 km Ladoga. Lake after is The area ofthelake inEuropeOnega isthesecondlargest lake maximum depthis230m. intoof theNevaRiver theGulfofFinland. Its and Vuoksa, andthelake’s outletisbyway The mainfeeder are rivers the Volkhov, Svir, of 17700km Finland.eastern Ladogacovers anarea Lake and oftheRussiannorth-west a great part watershed area,of thelake whichincludes CONDITIONS OF THE LAKES ANDCHARACTERISTICS REFERENCE 2 )

with acatchment area of12300km 2 , andthevolume is262km 2 (withitsislands, 18135km 2 (including the lake itself), itself), (includingthelake 2 (with itsislands, 880 3 et al., . hasa The lake 2006]. The 3 , with 2 ). 2 2

Voronikhin (1935);Poretskij The tableiscompiledusingdatafrom: period, are shown in pre-industrial Table 2. the during natural ecosystems oftheselakes quantitative indexes, conditionof describing arethe three shownin lakes Table 1,basic speciesin modification..., 2002].Dominant Ladoga...,2002;Anthropogenic1999; Lake Onega..., of deepoligotrophic[Lake lakes mainly similarto thecontent andstructure phytoplankton from theinvestigated is lakes cold-water species. Content andstructureof of thethreeareoligotrophic lakes typical in theNorthern Taiga. Water inhabitants to Ladoga,located Lake from arcticImandra andorganicnutrients substancesincrease processes general, byphosphorcontent. In N/Pratio(43–45)limitproductional High its bioavailable phosphates) wastoo low. microelements; phosphorcontent (especially and concentrations ofsuspendedmaterial saltcontents, low hydrocarbonate–calcium were oligothrophicthe lakes typically with of ionsis20–55mg/l).Prior to the1930s, form clearwaterselement cycling) (thesum processes,chemical weathering andslow diatoms, in particular diatoms, inparticular (1940s) themiddleoflastcentury In 2002. Ladoga... 2002;Anthropogenic modification... B.P.Iliyashuk, Onega...1999;Lake (2002),Lake (1982);Sabylina (1999); Yakovlev (1998); (2002); Anthropogenic eutrophication... (1972); Petrovskaya (1966);Nikolayev Vandish and (1987, 1971);Moiseenko Yakovlev (1990), Pravdin (1956);Petrova (1948);Sokolova andSemenovich(1940);Berg and Krokhin in zoobenthos ofthe lakes. Oligochaeta relicta, Pallasiola qudrispinosa spp.) (Chironomidae), bivalves ( larvae 1966; Nikolayev, 1972; Vandysh, 2002].Midge 1956;Petrovskaya, [Sokolova, and Imandra dominated inzooplankton ofLadoga,Onega, Crustacea Cladocera [Petrova, lakes oligotrophic 1987]. northern biomass were low, of whichistypical Ladoga, andOnega. Values ofphytoplankton predominate inphytoplankton ofImandra, andcrustacea(

and Copepoda typically and Copepoda typically Monoporeia affinis, M. Aulacoseira islandica, ) dominated et al. Euglesa (1934); 221.03.2012 10:05:37 1 . 0 3 . 2 0

1 2

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7 1 Table 1. Dominating complexes of community structure of the Russian large lakes: Imandra, Onega, and Ladoga during the key periods of ecosystem modifi cation 221.03.2012 10:05:37 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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7 2 Chl “a”,mg/m Si, mg/l Ntot/NO Ptot/PO Number, spec. 10 Number, cell10 Biomass, g/m Phytoplankton Toxic loads(ΣCi/MPCi)** Biomass, g/m Zooplankton H (Shannon'sindex),bit/spec. 1 – reference condition, 2 – intensive pollution and degradation, 3 – decreasing pollution and recovery and pollution 3–decreasing degradation, and pollution 2–intensive condition, 1 –reference Table 2. The main indicators* of water quality and community conditions of Russian large lakes during during lakes large Russian of conditions community and quality water of indicators* main The Table 2. 4 3 , μg/l ,μg/l aibePeriods Variable 3 3 3 6 /l 3 /m 3 the key periods of ecosystem changes: changes: ecosystem of keyperiods the .2010.2 0.5 0.1 1.2 0.42 1.1 3 2 1121 0 034 143 0.9 80 2.8 110 0.6 1.1 107 2.9 271 0.1 1.2 3 1.7 2 0.3 115313 2.1 3 5.5 2 0.5 1 1.7 0.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 3.4 7.9 0.6 3.6 8.0 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.1 3 6.8 1.0 2 8.4 3.2 1 0.7 0.1 3.6 3 3.8 2 0.3 1 3 2 1 . . 3.4 12.3 0.4 2.5 3.6 0.1 3.2 3.8 0.1 3 2 1 . . 3.6 3.1 3.4 3.8 3.3 3.7 3.1 2.5 3.2 3 2 1 9/9688 890/230 920/240 450/130 648/85 750/120 350/110 395/19 436/102 260/17 3 2 1 622/ 34/9 10/3 178/100 24/5 54/30 8/1 26/2 26/21 6/1 3 2 1 mnr ng Ladoga Onega Imandra Lakes 221.03.2012 10:05:37 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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feeder; feeder; Coregonus albula withthepresencelakes oftrout andloach: 1968]. were whitefishThese lakes typical 1940; Gerd, 1949;Sokolov, 1956;Alexandrov, andSemenovich, Naididae families[Krokhin were represented bytheLumbriculidae catchments. thebeginning ofthelast In inthelakelarge enterprises industrial the 1930sresulted inthebuildingof expansioninConsiderable industrial 1966]. [Galkin, lake ( arcticchar in LadogaandOnegalakes; salmon ( benthophage. Amongcarnivorous fishlake AND ECOSYSTEMS DISTURBANCE ANTHROPOGENIC LOADS 7 Salvelinus alpinus Salvelinus 3 Biomass, g/m Macrozoobenthos Sannsidx,btse.13526– 2.6 B.P.Iliyashuk, Ladoga…2002;Anthropogenic Onega...1999;Lake modifi (2002),Lake cation…2002. 3.5 (1972); (1966); Nikolayev Vandish (2002);Anthropogenic eutrophication… (1982);Sabylina(1999); Yakovlev (1998); Berg andPravdin (1956);Petrova (1948);Sokolova and (1987,1971);Moiseenko Yakovlev (1990),Petrovskaya The tableiscompiledusingdatafrom: Voronikhin (1935);PoretskijandSemenovich(1940); etal. (1934);Krokhin for aquaticlife concentrations(MPC) to maximumpermissible inRussia[ListofFisheryStandards..., 1999]. ** Toxic loads:ΣCi/MPCi Cu, –thetotal concentrationofpollutants(Ni, Pb, phenolandlignosulphonate) normalized, valuesofindicators from are* Numerical theliterature taken cited below; 1 H (Shannon'sindex),bit/spec. Number, spec. 10 H (Shannon'sindex),bit/spec. Coregonus lavaretus Salmo trutta Salmo aibePeriods Variable 2 3 /m (L)isthemainplankton (L)) dominates in Imandra (L))dominates inImandra 2 (L)dominates (L) isthemain . . 2.7 – – 2.5 1.7 2.3 2.5 1.9 2.8 3 2 1 . . – – 3.5 1.4 1.1 2.0 0.8 7.0 12.6 1.1 4.8 2.4 1.6 1.6 0.2 12.0 6.2 3 3.2 43 2 0.6 0.5 13 3 35 2 0.6 1 3 2 1

and only to 8%ofthewholelake. be noted, thatthearea ofthisbay amounts should Ladoga...,2002].It total value)[Lake Bay’s was50–60%ofthe part (Volkhov phosphor loadwas6–7thousand ton/year hundred times:inthe1970s–1980s, increasedphosphor fluxinto thelake a town. According to scientists’ estimates ores) andwithwastewaters ofthe Volkhov apatite-nepheline phosphorus-containing raw bythealuminumplant: materials wastewater usingnew (especiallyafter with fluxoftoxic agentswithindustry 1960s. Phosphor loadwas associated reached itsmaximumbytheendof benzopyrene, andother toxic agents Plant pollutionwithphenols, lignosulfate, Bay). (Volkhov on theshore ofLadogaLake andother plantswere builtpaper factory century, thefirstaluminumplant,pulpand mnr ng Ladoga Onega Imandra Lakes Окончание табл. 2 221.03.2012 10:05:38 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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7 4 to theR.A. Vollenweider classification, condition byphosphorcontent (according – Imandra White Bay) satisfyeutrophic in Bay; inOnega–Kondopoga Bay; Polluted bays (inLadoga– Volkhov (phosphorandnitrogen).of nutrients went withthebulkinputof thelakes ofthelakes. sections Thus, toxic pollution toxic into wastewater andsewagebled-off went withuncontrollable activity industrial thisperiod,of intense water pollution.In toxic stress for water dwellers intheperiod limited information isindicative ofhigh into theecosystems, buteven available to dimensionsoftoxic estimate exact flow isdifficultof substanceswasdramatic. It Pollution with toxic ofthelakes mixture area).all lake (i.e., Bol’shayathe lake (38%ofthe Imandra) of part pollution occurred inthenorthern nutrients, sulphates, andchlorides. The main metals,of contaminantsincludingheavy to wassubjected pollutionbyanumber lake effects ofpollutionwere mostevident. The Data are available for 1983–1992,whenthe 1940s andreached itspeakinthe1980s. began inthe pressure Lake ontheImandra beganinthe1930s. AnthropogenicImandra deposits inthecatchment area ofLake andiron apatite-nephelinite, nickel-rich, development ofcopper- andIndustrial severe pollutionthanmany Arctic lakes. to hasbeensubjected more Imandra Lake increased to 0.56g/m agents. Phosphor loadto theBay area compounds were in the1980s, however phosphorandnitrogen treatment system wasforced into application treatment for facility 30years. Wastewater The plantoperated withoutwaste-water area islessthan 3%ofthelake. nutrients. Its sewage, whichcontainstoxic pollutantand wastewaterof industrial anddomestic Bay receivesThe Kondopoga large amounts plant. pulp-and-paper largest inthecountry Onegaispolluted bywastewaterLake ofthe nitrogen loadreached 11.1g/m 0.1 g/m However total was phosphorloadto thelake 2 peryear [Sabylina,1999]. additionally appliedas 2 peryear andthe 2 peryear. sp water dwellers as time, percentage ofsuchspecificnorthern ofcontaminants. Atthesame the impact occurs becauseofrotifers’ highresistance to increased tostructure inImandra 60%,which Percentage ofrotifers inthezooplankton species. the dominanceofeurybiontic lakes, zooplankton structurechangedtowards ofintensive theperiod pollutionofthe In (see that period Table 1). green, algaedominated in andcryptophyte ofeutrophic waters:typical blue-green, promoted intensive development ofspecies, changes ofphytoplankton community they occurred to alesserdegree. Structural ofImandra inthearcticlake Onega Lakes; in Ladoga andblooms were observed cyanobacterial input.Intensive nutrients 20–30-fold becauseof large dimensionsof baysbiomass inpolluted increased lake thesummerperiod, phytoplanktonDuring of allecosystem units(see Table 2). occurred andinvolved changesofstructure –water toxicity –has and newproperty different from theirnative characteristics, organisms intheanalyzed bays became pollution habitatconditionsfor aquatic also occurred. Thus, of intense intheperiod havecontaminants withtoxic properties elements content hasincreased; changein level, sulphates, chlorides, andbiogenic hasdecreased; pH water clarity in type: ofpollution werein theperiod similar Water changesinallthree lakes chemistry mesotrophic condition. 1979) andadjacentlarge areas satisfy have whiletheirbiodiversity steeply risen zoobenthos inthepollution zones ofalllakes The total abundance andbiomassof decreased. crustaceanspecies northern of typical and Onegaincreased, whereas abundance decreased. Abundanceofrotifers inLadoga increased, whereas index speciesdiversity total biomassofzooplankton community According 2002], to thedatafrom [Vandish, ., Holopedium gibberum Collotheca sp ., decreased. Conochilus 221.03.2012 10:05:38 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1999; Lake Ladoga...,2002]. 1999; Lake had decreased Onega..., dramatically [Lake salmon abundanceinLadoga andOnega 2002].Lake andKudriavtseva, [Moiseenko in water anditsaccumulationinkidneys was closelyrelated concentration to nickel rate (%ofthosesurveyed) Case frequency lipoid liver, etc. cirrhosis, were recorded also. whitefish stones), asnephrocalsitosis (kidney abundance decreased. Suchdiseasesof commercial catches ofImandra. Whitefish These speciescompletely disappeared in of theirhighwater pollutionsensitivity. significantly decreasedcommunity because Abundance oftrout andloachinfish matter inthebottom silt. toxicity andhighaccumulationoforganic dominated inthezones withdecreased substances andnutrients. Oligochaetes onorganicwith naturalvaluesthriving 50-fold higherbiomasses incomparison chironomids large-size formed 10– Rather formed inconditionsofmoderate pollution. complexwerechironomid-oligochaete Communities ofsomeresistant speciesof 1992;Belkina 1999; Slepukhina, [Polyakova,communities wasobserved and thetotal annihilationofbottom production outlet from thepulp-and-paper offlood-release occurred intheperiod lakes Dramatic pollutionofLadogaandOnega and [Moiseenko ting thelake Yakovlev, 1990]. metalsandbiogenicelementspollu- heavy M. affinis has probably petered outofthefauna. before Lake seen inImandra (i.e., epibioticcrustaceans than 50%.Oneoftwo and bivalve mollusksdecreased bymore of pollution-sensitive Chironomidae larvae Atthesametime, Lake. theratio of Imandra to 200g/m less than1–2bit/spec. Oligochaetes (up index intheseverely polluted zones was in thecontaminationarea. Speciesdiversity tubifex, Limnodrilushoffmeisteri Chironomus, Procladius of biodiversity abundance andrestricted have decreased. Communities withhigh 50g/m 7 5 2 ) abundancedominated inbenthos appeared to bemore resistant to 2 ) andChironomidae (upto , Nematoda developed et al., M. relicta) M. relicta) , Tubifex 2003].

and kept decreasingand kept steadily, dueto more interest; itsconcentration didnotimprove ofsiliconisparticular structure. Dynamics utilization inthechangedtrophic ecosystem fold), and nitrates significantly decreased (6–20- Concentrations ofbioavailable phosphates decreased inall three onlyslightly. lakes level; concentrationofcommonnitrogen theyremained atthesamein Imandra, in LadogaandOnegadecreased; whereas Concentration ofcommonphosphorusforms Table 2). and phenolsinLadogaalsodecreased (see of Onega;concentrationslignosulphates pollution, decreasedBay intheKondopoga industry ofpulp-and-paper as markers concentration oflignosulphates andphenols, decreased fromImandra 150to 10μg/l; ofpollutionin asamajormarker nickel analyzed bays decreased: concentrationof Toxic matter concentrationinwater ofthe of Imandra. (Onega)Bays andreachesand Kondopoga anthropogenic loadto the Volkhov (Ladoga) occurred inresponse to decreasing andecosystemof water recovery quality decreased.lakes Tendency to improvement the1990s, theanthropogenicIn loadonthe ofintensive theperiod pollution. during state Imandra ofecosystem healthinLake fishdiseasesindicated thedramatic criteria, health [Adams 1994].Usingthese andRyon, are usedasintegral parameter ofecosystem forare assessingtoxic important effects and (by physiological indicators ofintoxication) to fishconditions determine high. Criteria lethal outcome for staying thefishafter was fish intheseareas wasdramatic, andthe and Yakovlev, 1990].Diseaseoccurrence of the effects oftoxic contaminants [Moiseenko to thesefood-rich areas, fishwere exposedto ased, migrating whitefish. whichattracted By developed andzoobenthos biomassincre- Productive areas ofbenthiccommunities TENDENCYRECOVERY TO which indicatestheirmore active 221.03.2012 10:05:38 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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7 6 to 3.4g/m from varied 1.7 biomass valuesinthelakes remained thesame.in Imandra Average Bay ofOnega; phytoplankton abundance Volkhov Bay ofLadogaandtheKondopoga Phytoplankton abundancedecreased inthe diatoms. ofitbydeveloping absorption active the analyzedbays indexhadincreasedand thebiodiversity in abundancehaddecreasedcommunity of the2000s, theindexofzooplankton From theendof1990sto thebeginning withnaturalvalues. highincomparison very biomass andchlorophyll content remained of recovery, maximal andaverage indexes of the bays ofLadogaandOnegaintheperiod spite ofthedecreaseIn ofphosphorload in structure. algae wasstillhighinthephytoplankton bluegreen,of cryptomonades, andgreen Aulacoseira islandica Stephanodiscus genera Cryptomonas, still ahighabundanceofspeciesthe varied fromvaried 3.6to 7.9mg/m Chironomidae complexwith thedominance inLadogaandOnega.Oligochaete- rising decreased, biomass inImandra butitkept slowto recovery.Zoobenthos wasvery Its 2002]. Ladoga..., 2002,Anthropogenic modification, Onega..,1999,Lake [Lake Bay ofLadogalake dominated inzooplankton inthe Volkhov pen diculata) Eudiaptomus graciloides, Hetero cope ap- ( of themostpollution-sensitive crustaceans However, there wasstill only atraceamount before thepeakofpollution,recovered. sp., L.kindtii) Cladocerae ( pollutionindicators.typical Valuable food and depletionofratiosmallrotifers, ( ( increasing abundanceoflarger Cladocerae decreased, butnotsogreatly, becauseof (Table lakes Imandra Cyclops sp., Leptodora kindtii Bosmina

3 obtusirostris ; chlorophyll “a” concentrations , which used to affect the lake , whichusedto affect thelake . CladoceraandCopepoda Ноlopedium gibberum, Daphnia Ноlopedium gibberum,Daphnia Cyclops , of Polyphemus , Mesocyclops leuckarti , Mesocyclops . Relative abundance 2). Biomasshadalso Ladoga, Onega,and ) andCopepoda 3 . There was . There pediculus, и ) et al., 1999;Falktime [O’Nail, with development andstructure occurring investigations ofprocesses ofcommunity apply theoretical ofecologyto principles to processes, recovery itisnecessary why, inorder to understandecosystems do nothave analoguesinthepast;that is ofanthropogenicunder theimpact load changesofecosystems modern Often, numbers offishcaughtfrom thelake. aproperimpossible to take accountofreal of successionsfishcommunities, sinceitis complicated to factor definethedetermining is fishcommunitiesstructure. It could impact together withpollutionandeutrophication an increase ofillegalcatch volume, which noted, thisperiod, there thatduring was shouldbe data abouttheotherlakes.It [Moiseenko of 2003,fish’s physiological state improved fell. Lake Imandra According to thefindings decrease, theincidenceoffish diseases in increased. response to In thetoxic load andperchwhereas abundance pike didnotgrowCorigonidae infishfauna, Abundance ofvaluableSalmonidaeand 2002]. to 60%[Iliayashuk, abundance grew –from almosttwice 36% stretch ofBol’shaya Imandra). Their relative in profundal(the benthosofthearcticlake M. Affinis supply,good nutrients epibioticcrustaceans significant decrease oftoxic load andof conditionsofa In of theobservations.) average, compared to 1964(thebeginning its biomassincreased over twenty-fold, on of speciesrose more and thanforty-fold Bay improved;the Kondopoga thenumber polluted waters, theconditionsofbenthosin facilities thatpromoted dissipationof of operationthewastewater treatment not found there. a30-year During period butepibioticAmphipodawas Onega Lake, Bay of oftheKondopoga part northern of wormsstilldominated inbenthosofthe DEGRADATION AND RECOVERY SIMILARITIES OF LAKE ECOSYSTEMS 2007].Ecosystems are self-regulating dominated amonginvertebrates et al., 2006]. There are nosuch et al., 2006;Palmer 221.03.2012 10:05:38 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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become reserves ofintensification ofthe become reserves at thisstageoftransformation andthey are notableto utilize bioavailable forms grow too;(orthophosphate) theecosystems of total phosphor, bioavailable forms Together withthegrowth of content of multi-pollution. underthe impact oftheirdisturbance period water ecosystems ofthethreein lakes us nowdiscussattributes, characterizing be considered as adevelopment stage. Let stable naturalstate to anewphasethatmay ecosystems have transformed from their pollution, itbecomesclearthatthelakes’ of allthree of intensive bays intheperiod intheecosystems indicators observed key unstable stressed ecosystems [1985]to the succession stagesofdevelopment andof Applying Odum’s oftheearly theory influx andstress oftoxic contamination. –energy factors of two inputnutrients lakes’ ecosystems changedundertheimpact factor, intensifying energy dissipation. The input, whereas atoxic contaminantisastress ecosystems represents anadditionalenergy influx oforganic into matter andnutrients Accordinglakes. 1985],alimited to [Odum, the ecosystems ofthesamezones ofthe release oftoxic elementsandsewageinto on theshoreshadresulted ofthelakes in For more activity thanhalfacentury, industrial North. ofcoldoligotrophictypical water inthe consisted ofpsychrophilic stenoecic species microelements. ichtyofauna Dominant of nutrients, suspendedmatter, and as oligotrophic withlowconcentrations decrease. Allthreewere lakes characterized processes theanthropogenic after stress degradation ofrecovery andsimilarities ofecosystemscommon characteristics ofRussiahasrevealed the European part of the bays intheNorth in thelarge lakes The investigation pollutionof oflong-term stateto 1999]. [O’Nail, thenearequilibrium natural processes thesystem back bring decrease orremoval ofanthropogenic stress, for self-repair 1985].Following [Odum, a systems thathave developed mechanisms 7 7 ( indicates thedominanceofsmallforms phyto- andzooplankton communities, of the conditions ofintegrated pollution.Decrease incomplex inthebenthoscommunity organisms of the chironomids-oligochaete process offormation ofthehighbiomass ispossibleto retracecommunities. the It Small size rotifers dominate inzooplankton dominance inallcommunitiesincreases. speciesto toxic Eurybiontic impact. water,dwellers ofthenorthern vulnerable with the typical competitive connections andlackofconcentrations ofnutrients benthos communitiesgrows owingto high speciesinzooplankton andeurybiontic species diversity. The abundanceof fells, thatresults indecrease ofthetotal in zooplankton andbenthoscommunities vulnerable to toxicants (see Tables 1and2), species, northern The abundanceoftypical their smallsize. inecosystemsbiomass turnover dueto algae,cryptophyte andtheyprovide rapid that mixotrophic isafeature nutrition of isknown, of pollutionresistant algae. It green, algae, andcryptophyte aswell as towards thedominanceofblue-green, of thephytoplankton biomasschanges (phytoplankton) occurs. The structure producersgrowth ofbiomassprimary Due to a highphosphorconcentration, processesproduction andbiomassgrowth. [1985]. in compliancewithOdum’s ecologytheory with amore stable(mature) modification pollu they conformtion andto what extent ecosystems have decrease after oftoxic Let us consider, ofconfiguration whatkind unstable stress state. oftheircorrespond to thecharacteristics in thezones ofintensive pollutionand state oftheecosystems ofthethree lakes featuresThe observed indicate thecritical species inzooplankton andfishdecreases. additionally. Percentage ofpredatory utilization ofenergy subsidies, received intheecosystembiomass turnover and r -strategists), providing more rapid nominal individual mass,for typical 221.03.2012 10:05:39 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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7 8 forms inthesezooplankton communities increase inthepredominance ofpredatory 1)an factors: which canbeexplainedbytwo time, the biomassofzooplankton decreased, numbers; introducents appeared. Atthesame innature,are greatly solitary increased in communities changed, e.g. species, which only inisolated cases;dominanceinthe did notrecover occurred ortherecovery species, for typical thenaturalconditions, differed from thenaturalstate: anumberof ofthecommunities The speciesstructure Ladoga...,2002]. [Lake biomass turnover have ahighP/Bratiowithrate of period. developed therecovery during They algaehavecryptophytes progressively Ladoga, 1987].In inSweden [Willen, of lakes the decrease ofphosphorloadinanumber phenomenon alsooccurred inresponse to period. therecovery the N/Pratioduring This the phosphorconcentrationandincrease of algaealongwiththedecreasecryptophyte of was replaced bythedominance of the algae The dominanceoftheblue-green 2000]. Ecosystem1994; Great report, Lake only inthesubsequentyears [Grey of thelake’s oligotrophication appeared beginning ofthe1980s, andthetendency chlorophyll “a” didnotchangebefore the the production of phytoplankton and they have decreased two-fold. However, decreasing inOntario, and, bythe1985, phosphor concentrationshadbeenslowly load. For example, from 1968to 1985, phytoplankton to thedecrease ofphosphor Great Lakes,i.e. thedelayed response of A similarphenomenonoccurred inthe ofintensiveperiod pollution. decrease are the almostashighduring ofpollution theperiod content during and average biomassandthechlorophyll the polluted bays), thevaluesofmaximal the ecosystems ofLadogaandOnega(in spite ofdecreaseIn ofphosphorfluxinto in anewtrophic structure oftheecosystems. decreases becauseoftheirrapidutilization concentration ofbioavailable phosphates of total phosphor inthethree lakes,the At thebackground ofhighconcentrations et al.,

amphipod ofinvasions oftheBaikal under theimpact transformationsconsiderable structural of LadogaandOnegahave alsoundergone and favorable feeding. Water communities in conditionsofthedecrease oftoxic load species hasanadvantageinitsdevelopment indicates formation ofanewstructure. This crustacean However, large growth ofprey species–relict wasstilllow. theirbiodiversity recovery; Benthos communitieswere in lessactive mass oftheorganisms increased respectively. its structurerose also;thenominalindividual forms (K-strategists) andprey organisms in communities grew, andthenumberoflarge ofzooplanktonThe speciesdiversity to reduced pressure onthepopulation. and 2)theincrease inanumberoffishdue upper levels ofthe ecosystem trophic introducents, increase oftherole ofthe species, appeareance ofnewnorthern recolonization with individual ofthelakes the decrease oftoxic pressure, specifically, The features oftheecosystem state after conditions? theycorrespond withmatureextent (climax) andtheirnewstructure? trajectory To what are: Which features ecosystems characterize 1999; Power, 1999]. questions The important stablecondition[Chapman, near equilibrium regulation andreorganization to the turn ecosystem, theprocessesdisturbed ofenergy thatinany isknown succession conditions. It ofareturn to theearly the complexity ofanewlyformed ecosystemstability and these mechanismsisthemaintenance of complicated ecological mechanisms. Oneof only onimprovement ofhabitats, butalsoon ofanecosystem dependsnot that recovery The information presented above indicates matter andenergy. ecosystems’ processes oftransformation of production, itrapidlygetsinvolved inthe 2003]. Dueto highnumbersandrates of 2002;Berezina[Ladoga Lake..., and Panov, CONCLUSION Gmelinoidesfasciatus M. affinis– in Imandra Lake Lake in Imandra (Stebbing) 221.03.2012 10:05:39 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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about climate warming, inconclusion,we isanxious Since thescientificcommunity natural state. identified withthenotionofreversion to the the term “recovery ofecosystems” can’t be presented inFig. 2. Therefore inthiscase, oftheecosystem modification is trajectory to thenaturalstate.revert The theoretical ecosystems, theirdisturbance, donot after showed thatLadoga, andOnegalakes) ecosystems (polluted bays ofImandra, water modifications ofthenorthern The analyzed exampleoftheanthropogenic Odum’s [1985]. theory mature (climax)modificationaccording to state through development to amore stable of ecosystem successions:from anatural corresponds to themechanisms recovery from anaturalstate through to disturbance natural one. oftransformation This trajectory stable modification,whichdiffers from the indicate formation ofamature andamore the toxic pressure, discussedinthispaper, of theecosystem state decrease after of the share ofK-strategists –allthesefeatures forms ofbiogenicelements, andincrease of structure, successfulutilizationofmineral 7 9 Fig. 2. of A trajectory an theoretical ecosyste the attributes of the disturbance unstable stage and of the new stable stage, stage, stable new the of and stage unstable disturbance the of attributes the after aafter decrease in toxic impacts m under modification toxic and nutrients impacts: of amphipods in warmer temperaturesof amphipodsinwarmer will changes. For example, higherbioproductivity may benefitfrom advantageousecosystem as whitefish, perch, minnow, andsmelt char andtrout, althoughotherspeciessuch to favoris unlikely fishspeciessuchasarctic pollution-resistant species. Climate warming it willprovide for increasing productivity to increase temperature withrising and elements from thecatchment areas islikely species. eurybiontic The influxofbiogenic towards thepredominant development of conditions communitieswillmove warmer utilizedactively introphic chains, becausein 2005]. Accumulated willbemore nutrients trappingandstorage [Cairns,(5) nutrient (4) rate of suspended–solidtrapping, and processingrate ofdetritus andstorage, increase/decrease,rate of nutrient (3) fixation,(2) (1)rate ofcarbon functions: influences thefollowing ecosystem impossible [Harris areturn to referencewill make conditions temperature asaresult ofglobalwarming isprobable thatincreasingIt water climate warming. ecosystems dueto place inthenorthern will note obviousphenomenathatmay take et al., 2006]. Temperature 221.03.2012 10:05:39 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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8 0 of anthropogenic pollutionandimpossible conditions water ecosystems undervarying changing effects ofman’s onnorthern impact Studies reviewed inthispapershowthe conditions ofbiogenicpollution. inpresentin someareas, whichisobserved to change from mesotrophic to eutrophic increase intheirnumbers. islikely The lake and growth ofwhitefish andwillleadto an create more favorable conditionsfor feeding 10. Depledge M.H. (1999) Recovery ofecosystems andtheircomponents following exposure M.H.(1999)Recovery Depledge 10. 9. samplingdesignsChapman M.G.(1999)Improving for restoration measuring inaquatic 8. J.Jr.Cairns (2005)Restoration EcologyandEcotoxicology. D.J. In: Hoffman,B.A. Rattner, 7. Berg L.S.and Pravdin I.F. (1948)Fishes Peninsula. ofKola Lenigrad, News VNIORKH, 26: 6. Berezina N.F. andPanov amphipodGmelinoidesfasciatus B.E. ofBaikal (2003)Invasion 5. N.A.,Polyakova Belkina T.N., Timakova N.M.(2003) T.M.,The state andKalinkina of ecosystem (ed. Imandra Moiseenko 4. Anthropogenic oftheLake Modifications T.I.). (2002) 3. Anthropogenic Eutrophycation (ed. Petrova ofLadogaLake N.A.).(1982)Leningrad, Aleksandrov B.M. ofthebottom (1968)Aboutstudyingstructure In: faunaofOnegaLake. 2. ofhealthassessmentapproaches M.G.A.(1994)Comparison Adam for S.M.,andRyon eval- 1. REFERENCES to pollution.J. 6:199–206. Aquat. Ecosyst.Stress andRecovery habitats. J. 6:235–251. Aquat. Ecosyst.Strees anRecovery 1029. andJ.Jr.G.A. Burton, (ed.), Cairns HandbookofEcotoxicology. Lewis Publishers, N-Y, 1015– 37–45 (inRussian). (Amphipoda, Zoological Crustacea)onOnegaLake. 6:731–734. journal 138: 277–283. LadogaSymposium2002.Publications Institute Lake ofKarelian the Fourth International sediments asaconsequenceofanthropogenicOnega.Proceeding influenceonLake of (inRussian). Moscow Nauka, (inRussian). Nauka. 37–39(inRussian). vodsk, Preliminary Resultsof Works ofComplex ExpeditiononResearch Petroza- ofOnegaLake. Ecosystem Health,3:15–25. uating theeffects ofcontaminant-related stress onfishpopulations. ofAquatic Journal Government ofRussia(№11G34.31.0036). no 10-05-00854)andbyagrant from the Foundation for BasicResearch (Projects bytheRussian wassupported This work new parameters attainstability. becauseaquaticecosystems with nutrients), anthropogenicof heavy stress (toxins and return to aperiod naturalconditionsafter ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 221.03.2012 10:05:39 1 . 0 3  . 2

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8 2 41. Yakovlev V.A. (1998).Response ofzooplankton andzoobenthos communities onwater Willen E.(1987).Phytoplankton andreversed Malaren, eutrophication Central Swe- inLake 40. 39. Voronikhin, andNotozero N.N.(1935)Algaeandtheir grouping Imandra inlakes (Kola 38. Vollenweider R.A.(1979)Advances loading levels indefiningcritical for phosphorous in 37. Vandish O.I. (2002)Zooplankton. Moiseenko In: T.I. (ed.), Anthropogenic of Modifications 36. M.F.Sokolova (1956)Zooplankton Proceedings ofLadogaLake. of VNIORH. 38:53–65 I.I.(1956)ZoobentosSokolov oflittoral zone halfofLadogaLake. ofsouthern Works35. ofthe Т.D.34. Slepukhina (1992)Features ofdevelopment macrozoobentos indifferent zones. lake 33. Onega.EcologicalSabilina A.V. Problems: Lake oflake. water chemistry (1999)Modern 32. andneeds. ofknowledge Power inaquaticecosystem: anoverview M.(1999)Recovery Poretskij V.S., Zhuze A.P.31. andSheshukova V.S. Peninsula (1934)Diatoms ofKola inconnection 30. Poliakova T.N. (1999)Bottom cenosisinconditionsanthropogenic eutrophication. In: 29. Petrovskaya M.V. area ofzooplankton in lakes. ofMurmansk (1966).Characteristic 28. Petrova N.A.(1987) The phytoplankton anditsrecent ofLadogaandOnegalakes Palmer M.A.,Ambrose R.F.27. restoration andcommunity andPoff N.I.(2007)Ecologytheory 715–723. Imandra). (bytheexampleofLake Water lakes change ofsubarctic quality resources 6: den, 1965–1983.Br. Phycol. J. 22:193–208. 107–150 (inRussian). Peninsula). In: Works 2.Sporous ofBotanicalinstitute ANUSSR.Series plants. Мoscow, Idrobion, 33: 53–83. Ital eutrophication. Ins lake Met Moscow, Ecosystem. 162–199(inRussian). Nauka, Imandra the Lake (in Russian). Кarelian branchofASUSSR.Petrozavodsk, 5:76–87.(inRussian). St.Petersburg, ofecosystem condition.Nauka, –criteria Ladoga Lake 218p. (inRussian). Research Centre,Karelian Petrozavodsk 34:58–109.(inRussian). J. Aquatic 6:253–257. Ecosystem Stress andRecovery AN USSR8:96–210.(inRussian). with microscopic Diatomite. structure oftheKola Works oftheGeomorphological Institute 211–227. (inRussian). Filatov Onega:Ecological N.N.(ed.), Problems. Lake Research Centre Karelian Petrozavodsk 3: editor.G.G. Galkin, Fishes 84–107(inRussian). Area. ofMurmansk Murmansk, successional changes. Arch. Hydrobiol. Beih.Ergebn. Limnol. 25:11–18. ecology. Restoration Ecology5:291–300. 221.03.2012 10:05:39 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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8 3 sustainability andenvironmentalsustainability policy, modelintegration andinteroperability. Alexey A. Voinov Alexandr D. Shalabodov Andrey N.Sharov Tatyana I.Moiseenko assessment, energy and natural resources, participatory modeling, assessment, energy andnaturalresources, participatory modeling ofaquaticandwatershed ecosystems, integrated environmental assessment,environmental assessment, impact models, systems analysisinecologyandeconomics, strategic particular, In hisresearch making, isinspatialdynamic policy and scienceinapplicationto decisionsupport and sustainability professional are insimulationmodelingofecosystems expertise fromEcosystem Modeling thesameuniversity. The areas of 1982,heobtainedhisPhD inBiophysics in1978.In and University received from State hisMScinAppliedMathematics Moscow (ITC)of attheUniversity Observation Twente since 2009.He Natural Resources, Faculty ScienceandEarth ofGeo-Information advisor ofeightcandidate dissertations. the authorofover 90 scientificpublications. Hewasscientific He is includes biological membranes andmembranetransport. Human Anatomy andPhysiology. The area ofhisresearch interests 1985. Atthepresent time, heisProfessor of oftheDepartment Functioning of Transport ATPases”. Hehasbeenwith TSU since in Erythrocytes ofMammal Skeleton RoleofMembrane “The degree from thesameInstitute. was The themeofhisdissertation ofRAS(Leningrad). 1997,heobtainedhisDSc In Biochemistry degree from ofEvolutional Physiology I.M.SechenovInstitute and the Faculty ofBiology 1985,heobtainedhisPhD TSU in1980.In of Innovations Hegraduated from Tyumen State (TSU). University Antropogenic Impacts (with Antropogenic Impacts T.I. Moiseenko). Aquatic under ofRussianLarge Ecosystem Modification Lakes (2009,withco-authors); recovery The Retrospective Analysisof ecosystem: referenceof arcticlake condition,degradation and in the Water (2008);Long-term ofLarge Lakes Quality modification Phytoplankton in Estimating Long-Term asanIndicator Changes Phytoplankton Peninsula from ofKola thelakes (2004); pollution, aquaticecosystem andbioindicators. publications: Main research interestsprimary are focused onenvironmental from ofLimnology(Saint-Petersburg) theInstitute in2001.His (Russia), Faculty ofBiology, andreceived hisPh. D. inecology than 250publications, including10books. levelsecosystems; critical andloads. ofmore Author andco-author toxicafter diagnostics’ impacts; inwater worrying ofearly criteria modificationinaquaticecosystems andrecovery structural-functional water quality, toxicand ecology; impacts,eutrophication, acidification; St.-Petersburg, 1993).Sphere ofscientificinterests: biogeochemistry 1984); DScinBiology(Specialized inecology, Research, ofLake Institute Biology (Specialized inIchthyology, ofFishery, Institute Leningrad, ofRAS.Ph. Din andAnalyticalChemistry ofGeochemistry Institute andEcology, ofBiochemistry Head oftheDepartment V.I. Vernadsky Corresponding oftheRussianAcademy Member ofSciences(1997), isanAssociated Professor of intheDepartment studied atthePetrozavodsk State University is Professor, andFirst Vice-President on –Professor ofEcology(1996), 221.03.2012 10:05:40 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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8 4 Dotsenko the BlackSeaispresented. forrisk wave avessel to in encounter akiller model. approach Apractical to assessingthe modelandthe atmospheric WAM-C4 wave usingtheMM5mesoscale in Gelendzhik, andonFeb. 14,2009inKatsiveli Oct. 01,2003 on ofstorms in theBlackSeafor thehistory reconstruction ofthewindandwave fields bynumerical wasconfirmed The scenario waves formation intheBlack Sea. the killer in winddirection. We propose of ascenario and 70%ofthempropagated approximately inthe swell wavewaves system, wasobserved percent ofthetotal numberofkiller Ninety the development ofmodulationalinstabi lity. processes inthewave field, presumably, with of suchwaves isassociated withnonlinear isshownthatthe formaseveral hours. It tion waves) considerablyonthetimescaleof varies highwaves rogue,abnormally (freak, orkiller of 2009showsthatoccurrence frequency of Hydrophysical intheautumn Institute Marine situ wave dataobtainedfrom theplatform of in theBlackSeaisconsidered. Analysis ofin forrisk wave avessel to encounter akiller countries. In Englishliterature,countries. In themost legendsandfolklore ofmanyknown highseawavesExtreme have longbeen events.maritime and wave fields, assessmentfor risk extreme ofwind recovery in theBlackSea,numerical waves, Benjamin-Feir instability, fieldstudy 1 Vladislav G.Polnikov * 3 2 Vitaliy A.Ivanov KEY WORDS: ABSTRACT. INTRODUCTION KILLER WAVES IN THE BLACK SEA RISK ASSESSMENT OF ENCOUNTERING Corresponding Author A.M. Obukhov Institute ofAtmospheric Institute Physics,A.M. Obukhov Moscow, RussianFederation ofOceanologyInstitute ofP.P. Shirshov, Moscow, RussianFederation HydrophysicalMarine Institute, Sevastopol, Ukraine 1 , Mikhail , Mikhail V. Shokurov The problem ofassessingthe storm seas,storm killer/freak/rogue 1 , Vladimir A.Dulov 3 ; e-mail: [email protected]; e-mail: 1 , Yana V.Saprykina 1* , Sergey Yu. Kuznetsov [Kuznetsov, etal, 2006;Dotsenko, etal., 2009, in theBlackSeahasincreased significantly oftheanomaloushighwaves observations Since then,thenumberof instrumental 2001 nearGelendzhik[Divinsky, etal., 2003]. was recorded buoyin byawave-monitoring theBlackSea,for waveIn thefirsttime, akiller due to climate change [Osborne, etal., 2005]. waves willincreaseof encounters withkiller point ofviewthat,inthefuture, frequency [Kharif, etal., 2009].Moreover, there isa be found inallregions ocean oftheworld rare,not extremely andthey, apparently, can waves arerecognition thatkiller ofthefact issues related waves. to killer This isdueto a growing numberofpublicationsonvarious and, consequently,waves ontheseasurface increasing interest high intheextremely recent decades,In there hasbeensteadily environmental safety. waves remainkiller pressing problems of assessment ofvessels’ encounters with waves andriskof occurrence ofkiller 2006; Kharif, etal., 2009]). To date, forecast Pelinovsky, and Ivanov, 2004;Dotsenko andpublications (seee.g., [Kurkin ofnumeroussuch incidentsisthesubject loss ofavessel orlife. of Adescription waves may causedamageorwith killer they are called waves”.“killer Encounters height andsteepness. Russianliterature, In wind waves becauseoftheirabnormal wind, andstandoutfrom thesurrounding nowhere”, even intheabsenceofstrong wondering waves, whichappear “from “rogue waves”, i.e., theunusual, bizarre, common namesare “freak waves” and 2 , Vladimir V.Malinovsky 2 , Sergey F. 221.03.2012 10:05:40 1 1 . 0 , 3 . 2 0 1 2

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wave occurrence withaheight result ofthispredictionisthe probabilityof andJanssen, 2006]. 2003;Mori [Janssen, The wave predictionwasproposedthe killer forthis interpretation, thefollowing theory 2007; Zakharov, etal.,2008], etc.). Under 2003; Socquet-Juglard, etal., 2005;Chalikov, ([Onorato,instability etal., 2001;Janssen, beingaresult ofmodulationalproperties waves’a possibleexplanationofthekiller wave number. Several authors have given = “nonlinearity parameter” ofthewaves ε= bythesteepnessis determined orthe ofthenonlinearmechanism The efficiency of spatialortemporal inhomogeneities. environmentof themarine intheform to have specialfocusing necessary properties in order waves for to form, killer itisnot associated withmodulationalinstability, For a “purely” nonlinearmechanism experiments. simulationsandinlaboratory numerical bythese mechanismsisconfirmed highwavesabnormally asaresult of oftheformation oftheThe possibility astheBenjamin-Feirknown instability. of ahomogeneoustrainwaves, also development ofmodulationalinstability and “non-linear focusing” the during ofwavea specialcharacter generation; ofthemediumorwithnonstationarity “dispersion compression”) associated with weather conditions;temporal focusing (or environment, currents, topography, and caused byinhomogeneitiesofthemarine focusing: focusing spatial(geometrical) focusing. There are different ofwave types highwaves,extremely istheresult ofwave of wave energy, to form necessary point ofviewisthattheconcentration and Slunyaev [2009]. The mostcommon given inthebookbyKharif, Pelinovsky, with abroad review oftheliterature is are known. Their detaileddescription wave formationmechanisms ofthekiller To date, anumberofpossiblephysical al., 2011]. etal., 2010;Kuznetsov, et 2010; Saprykina, 8 5 ak , where, a is theamplitude, and H exceeding k isthe the significant wave height width of the spectrum isdefinitely not the width ofthespectrum condition ofasufficiently small angular highwaves.of extremely However, the accordingly, theprobabilityofoccurrence decrease ofΔ domain isshowninEquation(1)for inthefrequency width ofthespectrum [Kharif, etal., 2009]). This conditionfor the direction ofwave propagation (see, e.g., is narrow and enoughbothinfrequency monochromatic, i.e., whenthe spectrum is onlyeffective ifawave isquasi- abovementioned physical mechanisms Focusing ofthewave fieldbyallofthe [Kharif, etal., 2009,pp162–164]). extensive discussionoftheproblem in waves (seealso ship encounters withkiller of suchaforecast for theprevention of theusefulness thatsupport facts known To date, however, there are apparently no the situationmay beconsidered hazardous. dangerous seawaves: if of predictiontheprobabilityextremely producing the Range Medium Weather Forecast) hasbeing in 2003,theECMWF(European Center for 1994]). Underthisapproach andbeginning wind fieldforecast (see, e.g., etal., [Komen, traditionally usingthe WAM-models and The wave canbepredicted spectrum wave spectrum. defined, inoneway oranother, from the spectrum and thewidthoffrequency εandΔ peak, spectral where BFI Benjamin-Feir index( canbecalculatedThis probability usingthe Ѕ P number oftimes H (

= n ⎣⎦ ⎢⎥ ⎡⎤ 2(1) ( 12 ) =exp(–2 +−

2 f nBFI nn p is the frequency ofthewave isthefrequency ε 22 22 f p /Δ n f f BFI (1), causesincrease of 2 ) Ѕ amongformal parameters n 33 = π BFI H f issteepness ofwaves / ): H BFI S : H . iscloseto 1, S byaspecified BFI and, BFI 221.03.2012 10:05:40 1 : . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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8 6 steepness ofswell waves. the swell system dueto lackofsufficient waves areto occurin that killer unlikely 2010], etc.). thesepapers, itwasassumed In 2005;Gramstad and Magnusson, Trulsen, wave systemand ([Donelan the wind-driven wavesswell in effect onoccurrence ofkiller that there are publicationsdiscussingthe waves.of anencounter withkiller Note also crewmembers sankasaresultwith twenty specifically,been performed; afishing boat of theaccidentinKuroshio region has the windandwave conditionsfor thetime al., 2009],where amodelreconstructionof et by[Tamura, issupported This scenario becomes dangerous. waves. As aresult, thewave situationatsea produces high sporadicallytheabnormally developsslope, and modulationalinstability swell waves reaching asufficientlysteep A collinearwindenhancestheswell. Upon of thistraditionmay besuggested. above, thefollowing possible explanation theargumentsConsidering presented do notgooutto seaonsmallvessels. coast,forthe Crimean fear ofaccidents, in suchcircumstances, theinhabitantsof same directionastheswell. particular, In situationswhenwindincreasesrisk inthe Professional sailorsare well aware ofhigh- specifically to thissystem. and thewaves peakrelate ofthespectrum thesystem often, ofswellMost dominates simultaneously.systems) ofswell observed of windwaves andasystem (ormultiple Black Sea,asarule, there are asystem thus, waves. the couldproduce killer In steepness would have the system ofswell waves withsufficient Asnarrow itfollows spectrum. from (1), not related to localwindshave arelatively coming from aremote area and ofastorm Ontheotherhand, wavesobserved. ofswell that differs significantly from whatisusually a specialshapeofthewindwave spectrum intherealinstability seaswilldevelop onlyat thatmodulationalThus, onecan expect the windwave [Onorato, spectra etal., 2009]. modelsof empirical case for thewell-known BFI closeto 1and, platform locationis28 m. approximately 0.5km. The seadepthatthe distance to thenearest coastalpoint is the coastlineare showninFig. 1. The representation ofitslocation relative to photo oftheplatform andtheschematic located at44°23’N33°59’E). of Crimea, The coast thesouthern settlement Katsiveli, ofMHI(the Department Experimental oceanographic platform ofthestationary 12to Nov.out from Oct. 6,2009, atthe etal., 2010]wascarried MHI [Saprykina, ofIOandThe jointfieldexperiments navigation. procedure of may beappliedinthepractice the questionsposted above are positive. The built ontheassumptionthatallanswers to wave intheBlackSea akiller encountering procedure ofaship ofestimatingtherisk conclusion, thepaperpresents asimple waves.lead to theemergence ofkiller In whether collinearwindandswell waves are associated withswell waves, andiii) highwavesabnormally intheBlackSea of modulationalinstability, ii)whetherthe waves intheBlackSeaasdevelopment ofanomalouslyhigh the fieldobservations questions: i)whetheritispossibleto interpret and to consistently answer thefollowing The paperisorganized to present thesedata 2011]. etal., 2010;Kuznetsov, etal.,[Saprykina, Russian Academy ofSciences(IO)in2009 P.P. ofthe ofOceanology ShirshovInstitute (MHI)and Academy ofSciencesUkraine Hydrophysical oftheNational Institute oftheMarine in thejointfieldexperiment dataobtained analysis oftheexperimental ofwind.direction isbasedonthe The work situation whenswell waves propagate inthe dangerisassociated withthe that aparticular ofswell wavesmodulational instability and in theBlackSeaismainlyresult of waves viewpoint thattheformation ofkiller ofthe isto showtheapplicability purpose motivation for thispaper. writing main Its The issuesdiscussedabove provide THE FIELD EXPERIMENT 221.03.2012 10:05:41 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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minute, including windspeedanddirection recorded meteorological parameters every autonomous registration system, which complex operated continuouslywith an several days. addition, ameteorological In for ranging periods from several hoursto Continuous wave recordings were conducted orgreater. of10Hz a samplingfrequency WGA haditsownrecording equipmentwith the entire Each durationoftheexperiment. 12–24; the “small” WGA operated through waves. The “large” Oct. WGA operated during of thesensorsystem for thelongestsurface in order to increase theangularresolution sensors, spacedatdistancesfrom 3to 16m The “large” WGA includedfour capacitive string was achieved. ofnonlinearwavesevaluating characteristics in property a fundamentallyimportant ofthesensor, linearity this well-controlled at accurately measured distances. With displacementofthesensors by thevertical ofthemeasuring allows through-calibration platform column. The suspensionsystem boom atadistanceof10mfrom thenearest wassuspendedonalifting construction center andofoneatitscenter. The whole pentagon atadistanceof25cmfrom the ofaregular sensors located atthevertices resistancewas composedoffive string were usedsimultaneously. The “small” WGA waves, wave two (WGAs) gaugearrays For acomplete spatial recording ofsurface 8 7 Fig. 1. The research platform of MHI near the settlement Katsiveli. The general view and the layout the and view general The Katsiveli. settlement the near MHI of platform 1. research Fig. The the maximumwave height For intervals. twenty-minute eachinterval, sets were downinto broken non-overlapping To calculate wave thedata characteristics, was 217hours. processing. The total lengthoftherecords height exceeded 0.5mwere for selected those records where thesignificant wave associated withshipwaves,false alarms only order toat thehorizon of23m.In avoid times lessthaninnaturalconditions, then, of thewaves tank is inanexperimental period using dimensionalconsideration. If waves to naturalconditions can be extended studiesofkiller time theresults oflaboratory waves.the formation ofkiller Atthesame the physical mechanismsandconditions of are descriptiveinnature andnotrelated to Kharif, etal., 2009]). Typically, thesedefinitions andPelinovsky,et al., 2004;Kurkin 2004, of individualwaves (see, e.g., [GuedesSoares, basedonthecharacteristics number ofcriteria waves,records there ofthesurface are a To waves inthe instrumental identifykiller 2003],were determined.[Janssen, inthewaveof nonlinearinteractions field μ σ K ofelevations ofdistributions and kurtosis well asthesignificant wave height relative to theaveragesea surface level, as t 2 4 =μ = = 〈ζ 〈ζ 4 /σ 4 2 〉 〉 4 , where , and the fourth centralmoment , andthefourth , which characterizes the intensity theintensity , whichcharacterizes ζ istheelevationof H max , the variance , thevariance H S =4σ m 221.03.2012 10:05:41 1

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8 8 non-uniformly over distributed time. wind speedandwave height. These pointsare appearance are notassociated withlocal clearly et al., 2009]).However, themomentsoftheir research (see, e.g., [LiuandPinho, 2004;Kharif, rare events isconsistentnot very withearlier such awave. waves are thatkiller The fact were identified. Fig. 2showsanexampleof highwaves (2),40abnormally Using criterion waves.of real killer study physical mechanismsoftheformation the records ofsuchwaves canbeusedto the usualsense, are notdangerous. However, meterswith aheightofabouttwo that, in includes relatively lowwaves, for example, waves thiscase, thedefinitionofkiller In multiplied by dimensionsofthe wavesgeometric mustbe in thetransitionto thefieldconditions, all H significant wave height[Kharif, etal., 2009]: ormorethat istwo timesgreater thanthe highwavesthe heightofabnormally waves is inpractice ofkiller the selection forthe mostwidelyusedsimplecriterion of nonlinearprocesses. For thisreason, as aparameter theintensity thatdetermines the steepness ofthewaves atthetransition, deep water. constant isessentialto keep It wavesdispersion relation in for thesurface Fig. 2. A fragment of a record of the sea surface elevations containing a wave of the anomalous height. height. anomalous the awave of containing elevations surface sea the of arecord of A fragment 2. Fig. >2 This wave and its neighborhood are marked by the rectangle and are shown, in detail, on the right the on detail, in shown, are and rectangle bythe marked are neighborhood its and wave This H S , (2) m 2 . This follows from thelinear the meansealevel, normalized at ( Fig. function density 4showstheprobability or thesignificant wave height. does notfollow any changesofwindspeed of absent. Variability 13:30–16:40,theywere entirelythe interval in quiteheights were frequently; observed 08:00 and09:00–13:30,theanomalouswave 04:00– sensors, theintervals are shown.In of onehourandsummedover allnine (2)forto thecriterion thetimeinterval of anomalouswaves ofoccurrence addition,frequency time. In significant wave of heightasthefunctions shows windspeed, andthe itsdirection, 14,2009. onOct. in Katsiveli The figure thestorm scale ofaboutanhourduring waves onatime- of occurrence ofkiller Fig. 3illustrates offrequency non-uniformity abnormality, Fig. oftheindex 5showsdependency Onorato, etal., 2009]. 2003; [Janssen, nonlinearproperties has clearly the Gaussian. That isinthiscase, thewave field waves, theshapeof high ofabnormally the timeofobservation waves. As canbeseenfrom thefigure, during corresponding to thelinear, i.e., non-interacting, curve alsoshowstheGaussian 13:40–14:40. It 10:00–11:00and sensors for thetime-intervals obtained from thecombineddataofnine PDF ) of elevations of the sea surface from from ) ofelevationstheseasurface A I = H max PDF / N N H inFig. 3,obviously, is very different isvery from , selected according, selected S [Kharif, etal., 2009], H S that was thatwas 221.03.2012 10:05:41 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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similar relationship in[Shin wasreported andnonlinearinteractions. A abnormality relation thedegree between ofwaves’ 2003]. [Janssen, The graph showsaclear the nonlinearprocesses inthewave field deviationfrom three characterizes kurtosis is three for thelinearwaves, andthe of theexperiment. The valueofkurtosis for allrecordingson thevalueofkurtosis 8 Fig. 4. 4. Fig. the significant wave height height wave significant the 9 Fig. 3. The observations from the platform in Katsiveli on Oct. 14, 2009: wind speed and direction (top), direction and speed wind 14, 2009: Oct. on Katsiveli in platform the from observations The 3. Fig. PDF frequency of waves of the anomalous height. Solid line shows the normal distribution normal the shows line Solid height. anomalous the of waves of frequency of the normalized sea surface elevations for the time intervals of higher and lower occurrence occurrence lower and higher of intervals time the for elevations surface sea normalized the of H S

and frequency of occurrence of waves of the anomalous height (bottom) height anomalous the of waves of occurrence of frequency and A same form ofapproximation ofourdatareads 2005, and2006byShinHong[2009]. The dependence obtainedfor thedatafor 2004, approximationshow thelogarithmic ofthis Yellow Sea. Three bluedashedlinesinFig. 5 registration ofthe ofwaves intheopenpart and Hong, 2009]for athree-yearlong curve isshowninthefigure inred.curve I =1,82ln( K t ) –0,27. The corresponding 221.03.2012 10:05:42 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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9 0 of abnormality of abnormality processes intheseawave field. The index high waves withnonlinear isconnected shows thatformation oftheanomalously resultsReview oftheexperimental waves. high withtheabnormally its connection and Hong[2009],were notableto identify BFI also thatourdataallowtheestimationof techniques [ShinandHong, 2009].Note be dueto differences inmeasurement may theapproximatingbetween curves Sea. correspondence The absenceofanexact intheBlackSeaand observations Yellow demonstrates theagreement the It between possible. waves areencounters ofshipswithkiller the mostdangerous situationswhen storm conditions isthenaturalapproach to predict at suchtimescales. The search for these waves intheBlackSeaareof killer realized most favorable conditionsfor theformation followsscale ofseveral hours. thatthe It high waves considerablyover atime varies ofoccurrence oftheabnormally frequency to theoneobtainedin Yellow Sea. The average, andthis interrelationship issimilar Fig. 5. The relation between the abnormality index and kurtosis. The points represent the experimental experimental the represent points The kurtosis. and index abnormality the between relation 5.The Fig. data; the red line is the average dependence; the blue lines are the results of Shin and Hong [2009] Hong and Shin of results the are lines blue the dependence; average the is line red the data; from thewave butwe, Shin spectra, like A I is related to kurtosis on isrelated to kurtosis estimated. spectra The frequency for was whichthespectrum the time-period averagedwind speedanddirection, over “big” and “small” WGAs. The figure alsoshows estimated from themeasurements ofthe 14,2009, of thewave onOct. spectrum applied inthispaper. Fig. 6showsanexample procedure thatis for partitioning thespectral below, we willdescribe, indetail, the waves ofbothsystems are similar. Therefore, when thedirectionsofpropagation ofthe difficulty,associated especially withacertain into theswell andthewindsystems, asarule, is waves The definite separationofseasurface two two-dimensional spectra ofthesea spectra two-dimensional two direction, indicating “where from”. Fig.shows 6 isusefulfor withwind the spectra comparison waves come. This mannerofpresentation of the geographical azimuth from whichthe represent thedirectionofwaves, i.e., 1999]. axesmethod [Johnson, The vertical estimated bythemaximum-likelihood spectra frequency-angular segmentsoverlapping ofrealizations). The estimationsobtainedfromthe spectra half- estimated bythe Welch’s method(averaging OF ABNORMAL WAVES CONDITIONS OF THE OCCURRENCE THE ANALYSIS OF WIND AND WAVE S 2 ( f , S φ 1 ( ) were f ) were 221.03.2012 10:05:43 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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9 1

Fig. 6. An example of the estimates of the wave spectra over a twenty-minute recording interval. The frequency-angular spectra of elevations were obtained from the measurements of the “big” (left) and “small” (right) WGAs. The straight lines on the frequency spectra are explained in the text 221.03.2012 10:05:44 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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9 2 dotted lines shows the spectrum Toba astwo spectra [1985]. To explainit,the plotofthefrequency rangeofPhillips oftheequilibrium theory Hanson andPhillips [1999] isbasedonthe A more effective approach proposed by of swell andwindwaves isnotsuitable. proportional to thevalueof proportional in theangular-frequencyrepresentation, whichis, slopespectrum, two-dimensional local wind, itisconvenient to considera frequencies, whichisusuallyassociated with To ofhigher getanideaofthespectrum visibleinalinearscale. peakisclearly spectral increasing frequency, onlytheregion ofthe Since thewave subsiderapidlywith spectra of upto 70 m). frequencies correspond to thewavelengths the greatest lengths(inFig. 6,0.1–0.2Hz ofenergydistribution for thewaves with of the “big” WGA reveal detailsoftheangular give thesameoverall butthedata pattern, of the “big” and “small” WGAs. Bothspectra elevationsobtainedfrom thedata surface the localwindspeed calculated using peakfrequency spectral thePierson-Moskowitz linemarks the vertical (Fig. spectrum the frequency sub-plot), 6,left separate swell andwindwaves. theplotof In to using theangularwidthofspectrum 1994]. Therefore, ourdatadonotallow [Young,the angularwidthofspectrum maximum entropy estimation)overestimate estimationandthe (the maximumlikelihood fromspectrum measurements bythe WGA wavefor evaluatingatwo-dimensional should benoted thattraditionalmethods It of wind. corresponds to thedirection of thespectrum propagation directionoftheshort-wave part oftheslopes. Asthe spectrum Fig. 6shows, data ofthe “small” WGA isshowninFig. 6as estimated fromSpecifically thisquantity the f oflessthan peakhasafrequency spectral topeak canbeattributed theswell whenthe developed, thenthewaves of thespectral asfullyPiearson-Moskowitz spectrum we etal., considerthe [Komen, 1994].If PM . In ourcase, thismethodofseparation . In S (ω) =α gu U * ω : –4 f PM ,where ω=2 =0,83 f 4 S g 2 /(2π ( f , φ π U ). f ) , by theaerodynamic bulkformula wasestimated velocity value ofthefriction approximately. Therefore, inouranalysis, the the sufficient to know Toba level only spectrum that for theapplicationof thisapproach, itis the directionofdecreasing frequency. Note, the HansonandPhillips method, evolves in using spectrum in thefrequency-angular peak ofdeveloping windsystems, isolated remains invariable, practically whilethe speed, peakofswell waves thefrequency peak frequency. Then, withincreasing wind peak withthePierson-Moskowitz spectral clearly distin clearly insuchsituations, swell waves Often, are ofthewave spectrum. thehistory considering oftheseparation theverity one canconfirm Having relatively long-timerecords of seawaves, similar. the windsystem andoftheswell waves are having asinglepeakandthedirectionsof atfirstglance, lookslike that thespectrum, case, separationispossible, despite thefact of localwind. We emphasize that,inthis this peakarea corresponds to thedirection the slopesanddirectionofwaves of of spectrum seen onthefrequency-angular isclearly bymeansofthiscriterion spectrum the windsystem definedinthefrequency what we seeinFig. 6. peakof The spectral band formed bytheselines. This isexactly peakmustlieinthe ofitsspectral to theright system associated withlocalwindinthearea ofthewind spectrum [1999], thefrequency and 0.11.According to HansonandPhillips coefficient u wind ( = 0.22–0.25 Hz, Hz, = 0.22–0.25 from ( theeast,werearriving observed 00:00–02:00,lightswell waves,time interval the waves were considered together. the In ofelevations andslopesof angular spectra andthefrequency- spectrum frequency the approach above, described whenthe and wave 14basedon conditionsfor Oct. Fig. 7illustrates theanalysisofwind C = * D is the friction velocity intheair, velocity isthefriction whilethe =1.5•10 C D U U , where dragcoefficientwassetto =7–9m/s)wasaccompanied by α for linesisequalto thetwo 0.06 guished by comparing theirguished bycomparing –3 . H S <0.5m).Amoderate east 221.03.2012 10:05:45 u 1 f * . p 0 = = 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 Fig. 7. Evolution of the frequency-angular spectra of the sea elevations on Oct. 14, 2009 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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9 4 the wind-wave system ( the abnormally highwavesthe abnormally (seeFig. 3). there wasintensification ofoccurrences of existing swell waves ofthesamedirection, wind systems onthebackground ofalready 08:00, whenthere wasdevelopment of the continued until09:00.Note, thatat05:00– frequency.a peakat0.2Hz This situation ofthemerged wavespectrum systems with swell system from thewindsystem inthe was already notpossibleto isolate the waves andthewindwaves. 8:00,it By a convergence ofthe peaksoftheswell decreasedand itsfrequency –there was level oftheswell-wave peakincreased also, decreased.the peakfrequency The spectral leveldevelop increased –itsspectrum and increase andthewindsystem continuedto indistinguishable. Wind speedcontinuedto wavethe eastern systems became ofthewaveangular spectra elevations, of thewindsystem. Onthefrequency- both ofthesouthwestern swell waves and heights dueto increased levels, spectral and there wasanincrease ofthewave 6:00,windspeedcontinued to increaseBy emerged.0.33 Hz ofwind system withapeakfrequency similar. thisperiod, thesoutheastern During levels ofthesesystemsspectral were already swellof theeastern waves. Around 5:00,the southwestern swell waves andweakening 05:00, there wasstrengthening ofthe 04:00– azimuths of230°–250°.Between 9 m/sanditsdirectionwassetatthe At about4:00,windspeedincreased to 7– peak. persistent frequency new weak southwestern wave system witha wave systems dominated. There wasalsoa remained low( west. andfurther toThe wave north heights m/s) andwinddirectionchangedfrom east 2:20 to 04:00, windspeedwasweak ( decay and winddirectionto rotate. From H it didnotchangethesignificant wave height Frequency ofthissystem’s peakwas0.14Hz; southwest appeared onthewave spectrum. 2:20, aweak from swell system the arriving S . Atthesametime, windspeedbeganto H S <0.5m)andthesame f p = 0.33–0.35 Hz). At =0.33–0.35Hz). U <3 into the low-frequency regioninto thelow-frequency is discrete, peak of thespectral offrequency a shift under conditionsofmodulational instability, studies As wasdemonstrated inthelaboratory 2009]. wavemaker [Kuznetsov andSaprykina, distancesfromcascade occuratvarious the where sequentialstagesofthe long labtank, evolves. This phenomenoncanbeseenina is discrete asit changesinthespectrum manifestation ofmodulationalinstability featureconditions. Animportant ofthe peaks corresponding to resonance which thewave have spectrum additional represents adiscrete energy cascade, in Shugan, 2011],modulationalinstability and 2003; Kharif, etal., 2009;Kartashova According to theoretical concepts[Janssen, modulational instability. we caninterpret thiscaseasrealization of satisfied. Therefore, letusconsiderwhether appearto havemodulational instability been i.e., theconditionsfor realization of corresponding to swell waves (seeFig. 3), of6sorlonger in thiscasehadperiods The waves heightsobserved ofabnormal highwavesabnormally by14:00. apparently ledto thedisappearanceof waves level that andafallofitsspectral peakofswell ofthespectral in frequency From 10:00,there wasagradual decrease highwaves.occurrence oftheabnormally direction. Again, there wasmore frequent already existingswell waves ofthesame of thewindsystem onthebackground of 05:00–08:00, whenthere wasdevelopment case, physical situationwasthesameasat toattributed swell waves formally, inthis system cannotbe the energy-carrying and ofdeveloping windsystem. Although long-wave (“old”)energy-carrying system Fig. 6above, where seasconsisted ofthe was lower. This situationwasshownon level ofthe the spectral “old” wave system into theband ofthe “Toba while spectra», and Phillips level technique: fell itsspectral system was isolated basedontheHanson became visibleinthespectra. The newwind frequencies,corresponding to 0.5–0.6Hz 9:00,anewpeakofthewindsystem,After 221.03.2012 10:05:46 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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Note thatthewave recording showninFig. waves were asdiscussedabove. observed, thatkiller thistime-period was during It transfer region. into thelow-frequency indicating thediscrete ofenergy pattern the edgesare parallelto theaxisoftime, place. Atthesametime, takes downshifting edges grows. As peak aresult, spectral time whiletheheightoflow-frequency edgesdecreasesthe high-frequency with edges on the surface edges onthesurface to 38degrees offreedom. Onecansee thatcorrespondsfor aonehourinterval wasestimatedand time. Eachspectrum three offrequency dimensionsasafunction 07:00 to 14:00. are presentedThe spectra in 14,from onOct. inKatsiveli experiment inthe ofthewavesspectrum observed Fig. 8showsevolution ofthefrequency scenario. proceeds underapproximately thesame forspectrum different initialwave steepness waves appear,new killer butevolution ofthe the faster (thecloserto thewavemaker) the higher theinitialsteepness ofthewaves, the form highwaves. ofabnormally The withclear-distinguished pattern “freaks” of are transformed into ratherirregular wave develops,instability regular groups ofwaves 2009]).Atthesame time, as and Saprykina, the wavemaker (seeFig. 6in[Kuznetsov andinthedistancefromboth infrequency 9 5 Fig. 8. Evolution of the wave spectrum from 07:00 to 14:00 on Oct. 14, 2009. Oct. on to 14:00 07:00 from spectrum wave the of Evolution 8. Fig. S ( f , Label 1 on the time axis corresponds to07:00 corresponds axis time the 1on Label t ). The heightof describe evolutiondescribe ofwaves onlyfor long(an the traditionalwave models WAM correctly of swell waves. Note thatdifferent versions of was dueto thewindthatblewindirection that strengthening ofswell 14 waves onOct. swell canbeassumed waves isnecessary. It toto occur, instability thestrengthening of nonlinear processes decreases also. order In decreases and, therefore, of intensity attenuation ofthewaves, theirsteepness However,the storm. dueto divergence and 2009] inthearea remote from thezone of [Onorato,in modulationalinstability etal., this feature ofswell waves thatcould result isexactly anddirection.It both infrequency the swell wave becomesnarrow, spectrum and dispersiondivergence ofthewaves, area.the storm Further, dueto theangular propagating ofwindin inthedirection isasourceof thestorm ofswell waves of swell waves bylocalwind. The area Let usdiscusstheissueofstrengthening heights.with abnormal accompanied bytheformation ofwaves 14 asmodulationalinstability, whichwas to treat thesituationrecorded onOct. 2009]). Thus,and Saprykina, itisreasonable occurred (seeFig.6instability in[Kuznetsov whenmodulational experiments laboratory inthis figure issimilarto thatobserved ofthewaves on ofirregularity The pattern underdiscussion.2 refers to thetime-period 221.03.2012 10:05:46 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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9 6 through theentire experiment. waves situations)dominated (high-risk ofkiller of higheroccurrence frequency of modulationalinstability. This scenario waves presumably formed astheresult highwaves.of theabnormally These ofoccurrenceswell andhighfrequency ofrelativelya narrow spectrum steep of thesamedirection. This resulted in amplification ofswell waves bywind 14,2009,thereThus, was onOct. that ofwind. of propagation ofswell waves wascloseto insituation observed “2” whenthedirection these,the swell 28(70%)were system. Of highwavesof theabnormally appeared in the situationwithpurely windseas;therest highwavesabnormally in were observed Only four (10%)of the 40recorded was absent. conditions whenthesystem ofwindwaves with prevailing swell waves, includingcalm direction within45degrees; “3” –mixed seas and swell corresponds direction to wind peak isdueto thesystem ofswell waves system ofwindwaves, “2” –themainspectral peakcorresponds to themain spectral were dividedinto three classes: “1” –the all processed records. Wind-wave situations wind waves above wasappliedto described The procedure ofseparationswell and 14, 2009. onOct. precisely thissituationwasobserved ispossiblethat waves ceased. practically It to theswell, whilethedevelopment ofwind rapid transfer ofenergy from thewindwaves As theresult there ofthisinteraction, wasa in thesamedirectionhasbeensimulated. withwindwavesinteraction propagating waves dueto “fast” quasi-resonant four-wave the mechanismofamplificationswell [Badulin,etal.,Badulin, etal., 2009] 2009].In 2009; andShrira, [Annenkov the spectra lead to amuchmore rapidevolution of time, “quasi-resonant” four-wave interactions etal.,as resonant 1994].Atthesame [Komen, thattheytreatfact four-wave just interactions hour ormore) time-periods. This isdueto the the platform 6hoursintheform after of they weredirection of Katsiveli, ableto reach about 5m/s. Therefore, propagating inthe ofabout6s.period Their group was velocity there hadalready been waves withthe of apointwiththecoordinates 43°N33°E, from thefigure thatintheneighborhood canbeconcluded 14.It local time, onOct. the fieldsofwindspeedandwaves at 3:00, zone ofthestrongest wind. Fig. 10shows zone wasmovingwiththe ofthestorm direction.Accordingly,of thenorthern the area exceeded 16m/sandwindwasprimarily 13. time, onOct. The windspeedinthefront wind across theBlack Sea. Fig. 9illustrates the coldfront anatmospheric passed in Katsiveli, highwavesof theabnormally attheplatform 13,preceding theformationAt nightonOct. WAMDI group, 1998; Yefimov, etal., 1998]. wind fieldsandthemodel WAM-C4 [The The wave were spectra calculated usingthe presented inthepublicdomain,were used. conditions, reanalysis dataNCEP/NCAR, Research (NCEP/NCAR). To settheboundary Prediction/National Centers ofAtmospheric the USNationalCenter for Environmental model MM5[Dudhia,1993],developed by help oftheregional mesoscaleatmospheric step ofonehourwere calculated withthe grid withatime- wind fieldsatthe6-km For thereconstruction ofthewave field, the to theseinstrumentalobservations. the BlackSeafor corresponding theperiods That iswe willanalyze thewind-wave fieldsin 2009]). et al., 2006;KuznetsovandSaprykina, in[Divinsky,described etal., 2004;Kuznetsov, wavesabnormal inthearea ofGelendzhik(as above) andonFeb. 1,2003,whenthere were 14,2009(discussed onOct. of thestorms amodelreconstruction we willperform highwaves.of theabnormally For this, situations ofhigheroccurrence frequency are conducive to thelocalwind-wave Let usconsiderwhatthesynopticconditions FORMATION CONDITIONS OF THE KILLER WAVES THE SIMULATION OF WIND-WAVE speed fieldat21:00and24:00,local 221.03.2012 10:05:46 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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9 7 The fields of wind speed and direction at 21:00 (top) and 24:00 (bottom) on Oct. 13, 2009, local time. time. 13, local 2009, Oct. on (bottom) at21:00 (top) 24:00 and direction and speed wind of fields The Fig. 9. The results of the simulation. Movement of the atmospheric front over the Black Sea. Sea. Black the over front atmospheric the of Movement simulation. the of results 9. The Fig. The color scale gives wind speed in m/s in speed wind gives scale color The 221.03.2012 10:05:47 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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9 8 Fig. 10. The results of the simulation. The field of wind (top) and waves (bottom) on Oct. 14, at 3:00, 14, at3:00, Oct. on (bottom) waves (top) and wind of field The simulation. the of 10. results Fig. The local time. The color scales represent wind speed in in speed wind represent scales color The time. local the direction of the waves; the length of the arrows shows the wave period in in period wave the shows arrows the of length the waves; the of direction the to the scale of 10 of scale to the s given in the area of the color scale color the of area the in given m/s and wave height in m ; the arrows indicate indicate arrows ; the s when compared 221.03.2012 10:05:50 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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9 9 Fig. 11. The simulated spectrum of the waves at 12:00, local time, on Oct. 14, 2009 Oct. on time, local at12:00, waves the of 11. spectrum Fig. simulated The Fig. 12. The simulated wind field at 9:00, local time, on Oct. 14, 2009 Oct. on time, local at9:00, field wind 12. simulated Fig. The 221.03.2012 10:05:53 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 0 0 Fig. 13. The background conditions of the formation of the 12-meter killer wave in the area near Gelendzhik. Gelendzhik. near area the in wave 12-meter killer the of formation the of conditions 13.Fig. background The 221.03.2012 10:05:54 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 ⇒ 1 2

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1 The simulated field of waves for 1:00 (a), 4:00 (b), 7:00 (c), and 10:00 (d) hours, local time, on Feb. 1, 2003. 1, Feb. on 2003. time, local (d) hours, 10:00 (c), (b), and 7:00 (a), 1:00 4:00 for waves of field simulated The 0 1 The notation is the same as in Fig. 10 221.03.2012 10:05:57 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 0 2 part oftheBlackSea. part coming from area thestorm ofthecentral above, there were indeedswell waves respectively. Thus, inthesituationdiscussed and0.13 Hz, measured are spectra 0.12 Hz peak for and the thesimulated spectrum ofthe frequency waves andfrequency: peaks,spectral bothindirection ofthe one canseethecorrespondence ofthe 12:20–12:40, situ dataofthetimeinterval inFig.spectrum 7,estimated from thein itwiththe 14.Comparing at 12:00onOct. f the waves Fig. of 11showsthesimulated spectrum anddirection(seeFig.frequency 7). swell waves atthetime, withtheobserved, Fig. 14. The simulated wind field at 8:00 and 10:00 (opposite page), local time, on Feb. 1, Feb. on 2003 time, local page), (opposite 10:00 and at8:00 field wind 14. simulated Fig. The or theregion oftheplatform high killer wave,high killer discussedin[Divinsky, etal., Branch oftheIO,of theSouthern a12-m 2003, when,inthearea oftherecording buoy Now, letusconsiderthesituationonFeb. 1, propagation wascloseto thatofwind. swell waves oftheir whenthedirection situation. There were high theabnormally the platform, corresponds to thesynoptic the fieldmeasurements atthelocationof the wind-wave situation,madebasedon one to concludethattheinterpretation of wind andwave fieldsintheBlackSeaallows with Fig. 3). Thus, themodelsimulationof coincide(220°–230°,comparedirections 14. Oct. wind The simulated andobserved Fig. 12showsthewindspeed fieldat9:00on 221.03.2012 10:06:00 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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situation during the period oftimeless theperiod situation during is associated withtheprevious synoptic waves thattheformation ofkiller expect 14,2009. waves onOct. Therefore, we can timeshigherthanforalmost two theswell waves was9–10m/s, ofthisfrequency i.e., was 11–12sandthegroup ofthe velocity given inthepaperscited. Period ofthiswave ofwaves, spectra the frequency-angular are Datawell buoy, and includingfrequency of thewave situation,obtainedwith the wave represented areal danger. Details for research purposes, the Gelendzhikkiller- 14,2009,examinedhigh waves onOct. emphasize that,incontrastto theabnormally 2009], wasobserved. We should Saprykina, 2004; Kuznetsov, etal., 2006;Kuznetsovand 1 0 3 Continued Fig. 14 Fig. Continued the locationofbuoy. thisregion, In wave strong was, storm over time, approaching can beseenfrom theFig. 13,theregion of wave upto thetime ofitsregistration. As background for theformation ofakiller calculated wave fields, demonstratingthe Fig. direction. northeastern 13showsthe speed exceeding 20m/sandofaprimarily extensive area with wind ofaviolentstorm ofthesea,there wasan theseparts In movingnortheast. of intense localcyclone oftheBlackSeawere inthezonecentral parts thisperiod, thewesternthat, during and Analysis ofthecalculated windfieldshowed previous case. thaninthe than 10hrs, i.e., timesshorter two 221.03.2012 10:06:02 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 0 4 measurements during this time-period, wind measurements thistime-period, during hrs (Fig. 14)showthat,atthepoint of the The fieldsofwindspeedat 8:00 and10:00 intense storm. ofthebuoy fromdirection theregion ofthe referred to swell waves propagating inthe than 11sregistered bythebuoyshouldbe Therefore, thewaves longer withperiods reached thelongitude ofGelendzhik(38°E). area9:00 and10:00),thestorm had notyet wave (between ofthekiller observation We emphasize that,atthetimeof toin thedirection thelocationofbuoy. 10 s, andwave directionwasapproximately height reached wasapproaching 5m,period Fig. 15. The simulated spectra of the waves at 7:00 (a), (b), 11:00 at7:00 10:00 waves the of (c), spectra 15. simulated Fig. The and 13:00 (d), local time, on Feb. 1, Feb. on 2003 time, 13:00 (d), local and was 0.1 Hz, and the general direction was 240° andthegeneraldirectionwas240° was 0.1Hz, and, atthismoment,their basicfrequency appeared three wavecorresponded (15c)had to thekiller The waves oftheswell wave system that andthegeneraldirectionof200°. 0.15 Hz swell wave of system with basicfrequency six hoursprior, there hadalready been the wave. killer Fig.observed 15ashowsthat, to the prior which showthewave history forspectra thepointofbuoylocation, Figures present thecalculated wave 15a-c to thedirectionofswell waves. direction at220°–240°(“from”), corresponding retained at12–14 m/sandits itsvelocity hours prior to its observation hours priorto itsobservation 221.03.2012 10:06:04 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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these killer waves werethese killer similartoo. oftheformation that thescenarios of assert height. the abnormal This gives grounds to were relatively waves frequently of observed there2009, when,attheplatform inKatsiveli, 14, was almostsimilarto thesituationonOct. wave onFeb.formation ofthekiller 1,2003, Thus, to the thesynopticsituationprior waves. the energy-carrying field, i.e., of generaldirectionandperiod themainfeaturescorrectly ofthewave can concludethatthemodelreproduces 2009]),we in [KuznetsovandSaprykina, forspectrum thesame time(seeFig. 1 it withtheinstrumentalestimationof Comparingreconstruction ofthespectra. ofthemodelallows assessingthequality with winddirection(seeFig. 14).Fig. 15d and directionofthewaves coincided 2009]) 2a in[KuznetsovandSaprykina, system hadhigherwave energy (seeFig. ofthewaves.and frequency The newwave instrumental measurement oftheheight (localized zone) inthestorm andto the the waves oftheswell wave system to theconceptofamovingsource of (Fig. 15b). T 1 0 5 Fig. 16. Example of the implementation of the risk assessment of an encounter with a killer wave. wave. akiller with encounter an of assessment risk the of implementation the of 16.Fig. Example his interpr etation corresponds See explanation in the text the in explanation See wave conditions specificto theformation of indetailto identifythewindand described 14,2009)was highwavesabnormally (Oct. oftheof higheroccurrence frequency One ofthefragments oftheobservations in approximately samedirectionaswind. waveswaves propagated thatformed killer system, whereas in70%ofallcases, theswell waves intheswell were wave observed of several 90% ofallcases, hours. killer In waves) considerablyonthetimescale varies highwavesabnormally (killer/freak/rogue 2009]. Frequency ofoccurrence ofthe previously published results [ShinandHong, processes, isinagreement withthe ofnonlinear oftheintensity characteristics –the andkurtosis the indexofabnormality the wave field. The obtainedrelationship of high waves are dueto nonlinearprocesses in hasbeenshownthattheanomalously It were revealed inthedataofwave staffarray. times ormore thesignificant wave height, highwaves,The abnormally exceeding two in the autumnof2009. platform inKatsiveli, intheBlackSeafromcollected theresearch This paperpresents analysisofthefield data CONCLUSIONS 221.03.2012 10:06:05 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 0 6 conditions for thetimeofaccidentin [2009]reconstructed waveand Miyazawa wind ofthesamedirection. Tamura, Waseda, showed enhancingofswell waves dueto wavedirectional buoysoffshore Australia, Young [2006],analyzingdataoftheDatawell intheswellwere wave systems. observed highwavesthe abnormally shownthere 3, in[Dotsenko, etal., 2010],indicate that direction, andwave height.Figures 2and withwindspeed,not explicitlylinked its nonuniformelydistributed in timeandis waves is ofoccurrence ofkiller frequency were anditwasconcludedthat described oftheBlackSea part the northwestern ofkiller-waves in 2010], theobservations For example, in[Dotsenko, etal., 2009, by anumberofresults earlier. reported The findingsofthisstudyare supported scenario. theproposedestimates have alsosupported Datawell wave buoynearGelendzhik. These wave wasrecorded12-meter killer withthe for Feb.was performed 1,2003,whena Asimilarreconstruction 14, 2009,inKatsiveli. background onOct. conditionsofthestorm and wave fieldsintheBlackSea,showing the reconstructionsimulationofwind high waves. agreedThis scenario well with leads to theformation oftheabnormally develops,modulational instability which waves reaching thesufficientsteepness, close to thatofswell waves. Uponswell in theconditionswhenwinddirectionis and directionofpropagation) are amplified (bothinfrequency with anarrow spectrum wave formation canbederived. Swell waves 2009, thefollowing ofthekiller scenario From theanalysisofrecords 14, onOct. andShugan,2011]. [Kartashova the development ofmodulationalinstability andtime,in frequency whichisinherent in oftheenergy cascadediscrete observations The datacanbeinterpreted asthefield 2009]. was studied[KuznetsovandSaprykina, waves dueto modulationalinstability killer in thelaboratory, where theformation of in thisfragment wassimilarto thatobserved waves.killer Evolution ofthewave spectrum for a grid of 10 km for agrid of10km forecast ofthewave situationfor three days three days, aswell astheregional operational of thewindsituationover theBlackSeafor be noted thattheregional operationalforecast hydrophys.org/ forecasts canbefound atthesite ofMHI. Interaction Ocean The results ofthe ofAtmosphere- consistently attheDepartment to thetime hours prior 1. Analysisofthewind-wave forecast several and for agiven time The assessmentismadefor agiven point wave intheBlackSea. encounter withakiller strategy assessmentofaship topractical risk based onthisapproach, thefollowing simple At thispoint,itisalready possible to offer, forecast. wave asabasisfor thekiller could serve ofthewind-wavemonitoring situations thisistrue,this scenario. theoperational If to in ourexperiment high waves observed possible to 70%oftheextremely attribute realized innaturalconditions. Atleast,itis Apparently, discussedisoften thescenario Tamura, Waseda [2009]. andMiyazawa situation, wasalsoobtainedinthepaperof development hazardous ofextremely the scenario, whichwe proposed for the in approximately samedirection. Thus, with windwaves thatwere propagating waves were interaction intensified during that swell waves existed inthisregion. These calculations ofthewave fieldhave shown waves.of anencounter withkiller Model boat with20crewmembers sankbecause the Kuroshio region in2008,whenafishing whether swell waves willcomefrom the 2. ofthisstep istoThe purpose determine assessmentisperformed. the risk zone ofintense thenthesecondstep storm, of speed. If, withintheBlackSearegion, there isa wind bystorm must alsobecharacterized intensive storm. The corresponding windfield the dataallowsidentificationofzone of of theheightseveral meters, reviewing the real dangerisassociated withthewaves in the public domain. Because inthepublicdomain.Because T × T asfollows: 10 km is conducted isconducted 10km is performed. It should should It isperformed. http://vao. 221.03.2012 10:06:06 1 . 0 3 . X 2 0

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(2005) 5. M.A.,Magnusson A.K. Donelan The role ofmeteorological focusing ingenerating B.V.,Divinskiy R.D., Kosyan Podymov4. I.S.,Pushkarev O.V. wave (2003) Extreme inanortheast 3. D.Chalikov simulationoftheBenjamin-Feir (2007)Numerical anditsconse- instability 2. A.O.,Badulin S.I.,Korotkevich ResioD., Zakharov V.E. (2009) Wave-wave in interactions S.Y., Annenkov 1. Shrira V. I.(2009) ‘‘Fast’’ NonlinearEvolution in Wave Turbulence //Physical of the risk assessmentisperformed. of therisk (in ourexample, by theformula waves to travel thisdistanceisdetermined reach region τisinseconds,expressed inkm, R the arrow to thelatitudinal axis;inFig. 16, (it canbedetermined, for example, byputting is thedistance of wave propagation. The lengthofthisarrow corresponds approximately to thedirection area withregion in Fig. 16isdrawn thestorm to connect of thesmallarrows). The large blackarrow 9 s(thewave ispresented period bylengths zone,storm there are waves τ= withperiod forecast ofthewave fieldshowsthat,inthe thiscase, the thisassessment.In perform assessment.Fig.of risk 16explainshowto accordance purposes withthepractical feasible to considerregion X,chosenin situation, instead ofasinglepoint,itis zonestorm to point 7. S.F.,Dotsenko Ivanov V.A., Poberezhny Yu.A. (2009)Freak of waves part innorth-western S.F., Dotsenko 6. Ivanov V.A. (2006)Freak waves /Series problems ofOceanology», “Modern REFERENCES 1 0 = 110 km). =110km). Time 7 rogue Proc. wave conditions/In: 14 ofBlackseainFebruary 2003//Oceanology,part Vol. 43,No6, pp. 1–3(inRussian). quences //Physics ofFluids 19,016602,15p. 13–15, 2008,Brest, France), pp. 77–86. mixed seas//Proceedingswind-driven oftheRogue Waves 2008 Workshop (October Review Letters Vol. 102.doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.102.024502, pp. 024502-1–024502-4. the Black Sea // Dopovidi NAS of Ukraine, No9,pp. NASofUkraine, the BlackSea//Dopovidi 113–117(inRussian). Sevastopol,issue 1.MHINASofUkraine, 44p. (in Russian). 139–145. X attime R thatthewaves must cover t t = 2.2 hours). If thewaves= 2.2hours).If =0.18 X t inthedirectionthat , whichisrequired for X T attime , then R /τ, where the third step t T isinhours . In areal. In th AhaHuliko‘a Winter Workshop, Honolulu, Hawaii. pp. R is at time puropose, theforecast ofthewindfield Ukraine (Contract M/412-2011). (Contract Ukraine of andInformatization Science, Innovation, system”)Earth for andbytheState Agency layers –physics, modeling, androle inthe 227915 “Atmospheric boundary planetary (GrantNo. bytheECFP7ERC supported (F25/438)andhasbeenpartially Ukraine State Fund for Fundamental Research of andtheResearch (09-05-90430-Ukr-f-a) project oftheRussianFoundation for Basic underthejoint wasperformed This work waves. exists areal killer dangerofencountering of thelarge blackarrow isexpected, there direction corresponding to thedirection X when approaching region whether swell waves willbeamplified 3. ofthisstep istoThe purpose determine ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS attime T isreviewed. If, inandaround T , astrong windfrom the X . For this  221.03.2012 10:06:06 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 0 8 22. Mori N.,Janssen,P.Mori 22. andoccurrence probability offreak waves A. E. M.(2006)Onkurtosis // Liu P.C.,21. Pinho U.F. (2004)Freak waves –more frequent thanrare! //AnnalesGeophysicae 20. Kuznetsov S.Yu., Dulov V.A.,Ya.V., Saprykina S.F., Dotsenko Malinovsky V.V., Polnikov 19. Y.Kuznetsov S.,Saprykina (2009)Fine ofwave with structureandpeculiarities spectra 18. Kuznetsov S.Yu., Ya.V. R.D. Kos’yan, O.V. Saprykina, Pushkarev (2006)Formation Mecha- 17. A.A.,Pelinovsky E.N.(2004)FreakKurkin andmodelling. NNSTU, waves: facts,theory Ni- HasselmannS.,JanssenP.A.E.M. M.,HasselmannK., L.,Donelan G.,Cavaleri 16. Komen (1994) 15. C.,Pelinovsky E.,Slunyaev A.(2009)RoguewavesKharif intheocean.Springer-Verlag, E.,ShuganI.V. cascadegenerationasabasicmechanismof (2011)Dynamical Kartashova 14. 13. Janssen P.A.E.M. (2003),Nonlinearfour-wave andfreak interactions waves //J. Phys. 12. Hanson J.I., Phillips O.M. (1999) Wind SeaGrowth // andDissipationintheOpenOcean 11. 10. 9. Dudhia J. (1993)Anonhydrostatic version ofthePenn State/NCAR mesoscalemodel: S.F.,Dotsenko 8. Ivanov V.A., Poberezhny Yu.A. (2010)Linkoffreak waves formation andme- J. Phys. Oceanogr. Vol. 36,pp. 1471–1483. Vol. 22.pp. 1839–1842. (in Russian). Series problems ofOceanology”,“Modern Sevastopol. issue9.MHINASofUkraine, 66p. V.G., Shokurov M.V. dangerous (2011)Extremely conditionsintheBlackSea/ storm 13–15, 2008,Brest, France. pp. 99–108. Benjamin –Feir //Proceedings instability oftheRogue Waves 2008 Workshop, October pp. 570–574. Storm nism ofExtreme Sciences, Waves Earth Vol. intheBlackSea//Doklady 408,No4, zhny Novgorod, 158p. Russian). (In ofOcean andModelling Dynamics Waves. Press, University Cambridge 532p. Heidelberg,Berlin, 216p. 5075/95/30003, 6p. Benjamin-Feir //EPL(Europhysics instability Letters) Vol. 95,No 3,30003,doi:10.1209/0295- Oceanogr. Vol. 33,pp. 863–884. ofPhysicalJournal Oceanography. Vol. 29.pp. 1633–1647. ofGeophysicalJournal Research. Vol. 109,C08008.doi:10.1029/2003JC002244,7p. Camille// wavesGuedes Soares Hurricane Z.,AntaoE.M.(2004)Abnormal during C.,Cherneva J. Fluid Mech. Vol. 650,pp57–79. Gramstad O., Trulsen (2010)Canswell increase thenumberoffreak K. waves inawindsea?// 121, pp. 1493–1513. Validation andcoldfront tests //Mon. andsimulationofanAtlanticcyclone Wea. Rev. Vol. No 12,pp. 105–109(inRussian). NASofUkraine oftheBlackSea//Dopovidi teorological part conditionsinnorth-western 221.03.2012 10:06:06 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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25. M.(2005)NonlinearFourier A.R.,Onorato M.,Serio Osborne analysisofdeep-water, ran- 24. Onorato L.,Fouques M.,Cavaleri S.,GramstadO., JanssenP.A.E. J., M.,Monbaliu Osborne 23. Onorato, M.,Osborne, A.R.,Serio, M.,Damiani, T. offreak (2001)Occurrence waves from 35. Zakharov Zakharov V.E., A.I.,Prokofiev35. A.O. Dyachenko (2008)Freak Waves: Peculiarities ofNumerical 34. Young windwaves Geophysics //Journal ofhurricane I.R. (2006) Directional spectra 33. Young I.R.(1994)Onthemeasurement ofdirectionalwave //AppliedOcean spectra Yefimov32. V.V., O.I., Komarovskaya Shokurov M.V. modelfor (1998)Numerical windwaves in The WAMDI31. group (1998) The WAM model. – The third generationoceanwave prediction 30. Tamura H., Waseda T., Miyazawa Y. (2009)Freakish seastate andswell-windsea coupling: 29. (2009)NonlinearParametersShin S.,HongK. of Wave to Freak Characterize Distribution 28. Socquet-Juglard K., H.,Dysthe Trulsen J. H.E.,Krogstad ofsurface Liu(2005)Distribution Ya.V.,Saprykina 27. Dulov V.A., Kuznetsov S.Yu., Smolov V.E. (2010) Freak waves intheBlackSea: 26. Phillips rangeinwind- O.M. oftheequilibrium andstatisticalproperties (1985)Spectral 1 0 9 waves / In: Proc.waves /In: 14 ofrogue waves: theoretical formulation observations dom surface andexperimental dimensional wave basin//J. Fluid Mech. Vol. 627,pp. 235–257. inathree- experiment gravity waves: alaboratory of mechanicallygenerated surface A.R., Pakozdi M.,Stansberg C.,Serio C.T., Toffoli A., Trulsen (2009)Statisticalproperties K. “Rogue Waves 2000”. IFREMER,Brest. pp. 181–191. envelope equationsinrandomoceanwave simulations. /Proceedings oftheworkshop Simulations / In Simulations /In Ocean “Extreme Waves”, Eds. E.Pelinovsky, C.Kharif, Springer. pp. 1–30. Research. Vol. 111,C08020,doi:10.1029/2006JC003540,14p. Research. Vol. 16,pp. 283–294. the BlackSea./Preprint 40p. MHINASofUkraine, (inRussian). model. //J. Phys. Oceanography., Vol. 18,pp. 1775–1810. L01607, doi:10.1029/2008GL036280.5p. incident//Geophysical studyoftheSuwa-Maru ResearchNumerical Letters, Vol. 36, France) pp. 157–158. Waves //Proceedings oftheRogue Waves 2008 Workshop 13–15,2008,Brest, (October changes//J.gravity waves spectral Fluid during Mech., Vol. 542,pp. 195–216. Russian). 88–102 (In and comprehensive useofshelfresources. Vol. Sevastopol pp. 21.MHINASofUkraine, mechanisms andconditionsofoccurrence //Ecological safety ofcoastalandshelfzones generated gravity waves ofFluid //Journal Mechanics. Vol. 156.pp. 505–531. th AhaHuliko‘a Winter Workshop, Honolulu, Hawaii, pp. 65–77. 221.03.2012 10:06:07 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 1 0 Sergey F. Dotsenko Sergey Yu. Kuznetsov, Vladimir A.Dulov Vitaliy A.Ivanov author ofabout100scientificpublications. Heistheauthorandco- layers neartheseasurface. boundary ofwaves,interactions remote sensingofthesea,turbulent wind waves withthefocus onwave andnonlinear breaking Physical Technical includeresearch activities on Institute. His graduatingfield studiesoftheseasince1979after from Moscow Applied Physics oftheSeaatMHI.Hehasbeeninvolved inthe recent ofthemis “Oceanography oftheBlackSea” (2011). themost scientific publicationsincludingbooksandtextbooks; resources.marine ofover 350 Heistheauthorand co-author processes, ecologyoftheenvironment, anddevelopment of of theseashelfwithfocus onseacurrents, long-wave includeresearch activities inhydrophysics ofMHI.His Department Engineering Bureau ofMHI,andHeadShelfHydrophysics State University,Moscow Designing & Director ofInstrument Research Director oftheSevastopol BranchofM.V. Lomonosov Hydrophysical (MHI)(Sevastopol, Marine Institute Ukraine), of theNationalAcademy HeisDirector of ofSciencesUkraine. is the author and co-author of275scientificpublications. is theauthorandco-author shallow-water Azov, processes intheBlack, andCaspianSeas. He generation andpropagation; modelingofthe andnumerical waves intheocean;seiches, rings, andfronts dynamics;tsunami andinternal scientificinterestsScientist atMHI.His cover surface 100 scientificpublications. ofabout Heistheauthorandco-author and sedimenttransport. dynamics, nonlinearwaves, wave breaking, suspendedsediments, Moscow. Hespecializes research inexperimental ofcoastalzone oftheRussianAcademy ofOceanology Institute ofSciences, , Dr.Sc., Professor (hydrophysics), isAcademician ,

Dr.Sc., isResearch of Leader oftheLaboratory , Dr.Sc., isProfessor, andPrincipal Research Dr.Sc., atthe isHeadofLaboratory 221.03.2012 10:06:07 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 1 1 Vladislav G.Polnikov Vladimir V.Malinovsky Yana V. Saprykina Mikhail Mikhail V. Shokurov USA). the Science”“Marine (ScientificandAcademic journal Publishing, international WISE group, Board andamemberof theEditorial of monographsof two andof about150papers, amemberofthe wind wave statistics, modeling. andnumerical Heistheauthor interest isinthenonlinearfeatures ofstochastic waves onwater, Physics ofRussianAcademy ofSciences, Moscow. main His ofAtmospheric Institute ofObukhov Department Interaction publications. wave parameters. Heistheauthorofmore than80scientific retrieve thewindfieldover sea,temperature fronts, andsurface images, analysisofSARdata,andapplicationtheradardatato processing ofsatellite studiesoftheseasurface, experimental in years of experience 1978 andhehasmore thanthirty atMHI.Hehasbeenemployed atMHIsince Sensing Department author ofmore than60scientificpublications. data.Sheistheauthorandco- nonlinear andnon-stationary modeling ofnonlinearwaves, andinmethodsofanalysis investigationsexperimental ofnonlinear waves, inmathematical Russian Academy ofSciences, Moscow.in Sheisexpert ofP.P.Coasts Laboratory ofthe ofOceanology Shirshov Institute than 65scientificpublications. processesatmospheric over thesea.Heisauthorofmore his research modelingofthemesoscale isinnumerical atMHI. Department The focus Interaction of Atmosphere-Ocean , Ph. D., isSeniorResearcher atShelfandSea , Dr.Sc., isLeading ScientistofAir-Sea , Dr.Sc., isLeading Scientistofthe , Dr.Sc., isSeniorResearcher ofRemote 221.03.2012 10:06:07 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 1 2 USA; e-mail: [email protected] USA; e-mail: been massive changesinthemacrostructure diversematerials incomposition. There have offuelandraw of considerablereserves Union, wasbasedonthe exploitation and thecollapseof former Soviet ofperestroika theperiod of products)during organizationsectoral and thecomposition oftheterritorial- structure(interms industrial economy thecollapseof themilitary- after effective reintegration into theglobal Russia’s economicdevelopment and nable economicdevelopment, Russia revolution”, model, sustai- export-oriented Key words: unstable situation. division oflabormay helpovercoming this of Russia’s intheinternational participation model analyzed. Aliberalexport-oriented ofnaturalgasandoil, hasbeen export and represents athreat even for theRussian revolution” thatoccursmainlyintheU.S. processing sectors. industrial The “oil-shale of the “Dutch disease” inadvancementof was usedto demonstrate negative effects theorem Rybczynski’s enhanced export. of large hydrocarbon resources andtheir associated withthepresence inthecountry disease” to asasignificant sustainable barrier 2 Nikolay S.Mironenko 1* ( M.V. [email protected] Lomonosov e-mail: Moscow State University; INTRODUCTION ABSTRACT. TO INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT) IN RUSSIA (FROM THE “DUTCH DISEASE” OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT EXPORT-ORIENTED MODEL Corresponding author President, SustainableDevelopment Technology Corporation, Corvallis,Oregon, Head of the Department ofGeography of Head oftheDepartment World Economy, Faculty ofGeography, This article analyzes the This article “Dutch “Dutch disease”, “Dutch “oil-shale 1* ) , TatyanaKolchugina less incentive there isto move –to forward of theresource component intheGDP, the have shown thatthehigherproportion Further studies industrialization. empirical a whole. inde- This isexpressed primarily increases oftheeconomy as theinstability the rate ofgrowth and inothersectors leadstoand, drop hence, in ofexports) areas (asaredundant ofproduction factor commodity. Expansion ofthe “hydrocarbon” leads to thereduced productionoftheother growth factors of oneoftheproduction (theoretical sectors two assumption),the intheeconomyand availability ofonly from anothersector. Atconstantprices “drains” away mobileproductionfactors ismostintensivelyproduction factor used of theeconomy where the cheapened has illustrated graphically thatthesector has logically andmathematicallyproven and sphere) lowers theaddedvalue. Rybczynski (non-productive (raw) andto thetertiary to sector thesecondary the manufacturing labor, from andotherproductionfactors) that thetransfer ofresources (investment, is quite simpleandisbasedonthenotion “classics” ofec [1955]thathasbecomethe T.M. Rybczynski by thetheorem ofanEnglisheconomist disease” thathasbeenrelevantly described the hard-to inthetoils of hasbeentaken country andexports. of bothproduction The 2 -treat onomic thought. Its meaning onomic thought.Its (but stillcurable) “Dutch 221.03.2012 10:06:08 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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least in the short term. least intheshort theirpossibledevelopmentdetermine at towards events andpotential to occurring geography usedto test different positions approaches prevailing inthesocial to therulesoftheoreticaland adhering reality from of observing theexperience method isasetoflogical arguments arising intense inthetimeofcrisis. The basic thatareperiodicals becoming increasingly and foreign scientificpublicationsand economy,world includingRussia,innational discussions ofthefuture ofsustainable isbasedon forMaterial thisarticle ofthisapproach. support into theglobaleconomy isprovided in process ofintegrating theRussianeconomy scheme oftheimplementationstages economy system. oftheworld Alogical inthemoderncountries-leaders/innovators fororientation agradual engagementwith ideaofRussia’spurely preliminary preferred overcoming them. The paperproposes a study ofsimilarprocesses andmethodsof be found andgeographical inhistorical of labor. Abreak from a circle”“vicious can andtransnationaldivisionthe international of sustainableeconomicdevelopment in emerging situationcanbeamodel world oftheworld.structure The way outofthe both thegeoeconomicandgeopolitical Shale hydrocarbon may change reserves paradigm ofoilandgasproduction. allow movingaway from thetraditional placerapidlyintheU.S.,taking whichmay the nearfuture –the “oil-shale revolution” canfaceeven in Russia, whichthecountry another threat in to economicstability divisionoflabor.international There is the nature ofRussia’s inthe participation the needfor fundamentalchangesin andunderestimation ofcomplacency minded” mentality, are whoseattributes and amanifestation ofthe “narrow- growth for prices intheworld hydrocarbons form:course andaserious withafocus on The “Dutch disease” along inRussiatakes the development ofan DATA AND METHODS 1 1 3 innovative economy. over a certain time-period results inincrease time-period over acertain economic resources to oilandgasproduction Kireev, the 1997;Zabelina,2004].Moving 1955; oftheeconomysector [Rybczynski, reduced productionvolumes oftheother (capital,production labor, land)leadsto the quantitative growth of ofonethefactors economy. Basedontheseassumptions, the ofthe sectors ofonlytwo and theavailability the following assumptions:constantprices theorem and obtained usingRybczynski’s mechanism ofthe “Dutch disease” canbe A more intuitive explanationofthe a country. added value, which lowers thetotal GDPof sector. tertiary The latter create sectors less tosector therawandto sector materials the transfer ofresources from themanufacturing the the longterm, “Dutch disease” leadsto a prices. In increased domesticandexport appreciation and,currency consequently, haseventuallythe miningsector ledto real The additionalforeign exchange inflowin increase ininflationandunemployment. andthe exports decline inmanufacturing of naturalgas. This wasfollowed bythe in1959,ofseveral fields in theNetherlands The nameisassociated withthediscovery 2010] namedthiseffect the “Dutch disease”. magazine “Economist” in1977[Economist, the exchange rate ofthecountry, thatthe andon on thecompositionofexports, level anddirection offoreign investment, the macrostructure oftheeconomy, onthe havetheir prices suchanegative effect on andincrease of ofnewreserves discovery The effect oflarge changesdueto the markets. of supplyanddemandfor oilintheworld the 1970sandsubsequentcrisis “peaks” for ofOPECin example, wascharacteristic resources already developed. This situation, significant growth for prices oftheworld with possible to increase thelevel ofexports raw andenergy materials resources. is It of oflarge reserves by asuddendiscovery quick can getrich that individualcountries ofeconomicdevelopment shows The history RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 221.03.2012 10:06:08 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 1 4 significant to economicsecurity. risks And divisionoflaborandleadstointernational reduces Russia’s competitiveness inthe provided byhigherenergy prices, which “Dutch disease”. The GDPgrowth ismainly the Russianeconomy wasstruckbythe isonlynatural that its economicstructure. It Russia isa “hydrocarbon” basedon country entered even intheeconomicliterature. “resource curse” and “paradox ofplenty” have there isto move forward. Later, as suchterms component oftheGDP, thelessincentive that thegreater theshare oftheresource of feedback attheconclusion andarrived 1970–1990) have establishedthepresence in to for lower prices goodstransportation highgrowth tradedue intheworld of avery the rate ofeconomicgrowth (over aperiod share oftheresource intheGDPand sectors 1996]ofthecorrelation between Larrain, F. [Sachsand Larrain Warner, 1995;Sachsand the U.S. researchers J. Sachs, A. Warner, and into thesocialsphere. analysisof Empirical investments bythestate petroleum revenues exchange rates, butratherto inefficient of oilandgaswiththeincrease inforeign oflarge deposits ofthediscovery connection devoted notsomuchto theproblems of hasbeen Ellman [Ellman,1981]whosework phenomenon wasinvestigated indetailby (resource) sector.the primary 1981,this In anditsinflowto activity manufacturing traditional, earlier for thecountry, export outflow ofcapital(investment) from the ofnaturalresources leadstoextraction an the GDPgrowth theboomin during As already noted, that thisisdueto thefact production ofnon-resource goodsexport. oranother,interval to areductionofthe the “Dutch disease” leads, over onetime- Thus, theorem, according to Rybczynski’s industry. manufacturing of sectors positions ofthetraditionalexport and, onceagain,withstrengthening ofthe transfer ofresources from thefuelsector, inpersonalincome,with reduction with new phaseofthe “Dutch disease” associated growth for ofprices oilandgasleadsto a in incomeofthepopulation. The subsequent oil reserves, 42%ofnaturalgas,oil reserves, about20% by Brazil. Russiahas12–13%oftheworld Russia occupiesthesecondplace, followed inRussia,2011]. Wyoming) [Shaleindustry are intheUnited States (Colorado, Utah, tons,trillion tons ofwhich430–450trillion ofoil-shaleisestimated at650reserves andNebraska). of Dakota The total potential formation (intheborderlands the Niobrara Dakota). The secondlargest oil-shalefield is andNorth Montana, formation (Wyoming, the U.S. andmore precisely, withtheBakken of associated withtheterritory is primarily California andAlaska). The “shale revolution” the U.S.inNorthern intheXIXthcentury by analogywiththelargest “gold rush” in (sometimes itiscalledthe “oil-shale rush” publications andthemedia. This revolution shale revolution” widelydiscussedinscientific ofRussiamay betheso-called stability “oil- threateningAnother factor theeconomic 15–20years.economy inthenext (models) ofthedevelopment oftheRussian there isanacute problem inertia, ofscenarios the current situation,whichhaslong-term of foreign investment [Papava, 2009].Given major upgrade oftechnology andofinflow andisnotinneedofa goods to market irrelevant oreventhat brings unwanted ofthenecroeconomyalso to preservation only to technological backwardness, but pressure leadsnot ofhydrocarbon exports dueto increasing industries in high-end high-tech industries. Drop inprofitability the degradation andeven lossofpropulsive Moreover, asevere form ofthediseaseleadsto its competitiveness economy. intheworld the domesticeconomy significantly reduces The pressure on ofhydrocarbon exports Russia –for slightlylessthanadecade). “sick” with timeincomparison for ashorter severe were (theNetherlands and very The “Dutch disease” inRussiaislong-drawn the system oftheglobalorder. the U.S., thebalanceofforces determines in thecountry, alongwith some reservations); intheglobalgeopolitics(with a superpower arethe risks increasing dueto Russia’s role as 221.03.2012 10:06:08 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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a liberal( division oflabor. As noted by V.L. Tsymbursky, regional processes oftheinternational in globaland forms withfullparticipation (transformation) to thehighestandbest of thenationaleconomy intransition based onthenotionofself-development the ideasofmoderate liberalism. They are Many well-founded modelsare builton dramatically. growthsharp of supply, willdrop prices shouldnotbeexcluded.market With the largest players hydrocarbon intheworld and gasproductionfrom shalewillbecome thatcompaniesspecializinginoil A possibility cost ofproductionisgainingmomentum. formation declineofits andonasharp oil intensive explorationoftheBakken the flowofinformation inpress onthe discussions aboutthe “shale revolution”, and possibly, inEurope. While there are Canada, America, inNorth markets produced inRussiafrom largest entering intheU.S.sector may prevent hydrocarbons implemented, intheoilandnaturalgas intensively developed. Great potential, partly isbeing profitability ofoilandgasextraction theU.S.,In technology thatincreases new technologies. investment, especiallyinexplorationand Basins. However, theirdevelopment needs in the Timan-Pechora andthe Vychegda Leningrad region, the Volga region, and oil-shaledepositsare located inthe known Russia,thelargestin Russia,2011].In fuels, whichincludeoil-shale[Shaleindustry thehugestocks ofalternativeconsidering of blackcoal, and32%ofothercoals, not and donotbuildit” 2001]. [Tsymbursky, become ofthisworld, ifwe donotconstruct standpoint ofsocialism,nothing goodwill persuasion,conform to.Keynesian “From the and anumberofliberals, or rather, liberals of opposite thesisto theonethatsocialists and disintegration”. This isabsolutely the we ofplunging runtherisk itinto chaos withitsoperation, of thisworld, interfering some coincidence. Disruptingthe balance is: world, as it is, hasoriginated by “The 1 1 5 great in his account) worldview inhisaccount)worldview [Maksakovskyi, 2003;Portnoy, 1996]. [Maksakovskyi, impossible arecountry-follower virtually andtechnologicalsociety progress inthis and outdated products, of modernization thatimposethedemandforcountries cheap of economicallylessdeveloped markets i.e. ofitseconomy theorientation towards choosesadifferent acountry-follower If path, countries-leaders. and sometimesisbetter thanthein follower isequal ischeaper andthequality goods whoseproductioninthecountry- to countries-leaders,consistently exports, ofimitation) acountry follower (atthe start, economy ofJapan showsthatacountry- ofintegrationexperience into theglobal progress Analysisofthe (modernization). economy hasbecomethemainroad of innovators intheworld countries/economic economic cooperationwithleading Their preferred towards orientation foreign ofsociety.the functioning and have entered of thedemocraticprinciples have created property, theinstitutionofprivate have amajoranti-feudal conducted reform, substitution) liberal protectionism andimport their followers thathave rejected theanti- of divisionlabor, (andnow thesecountries onthebasis internationalization/globalization intheprocess order of toIn fullyparticipate the inter process as planetary into suchapowerful isthesuccessive (cascade)integrationpolicy intheprogressa leadingfactor oftheir (and therefore free from the “Dutch disease”), significant stocks ofraw andfuel materials of not have avariety ontheirterritories thatdo and newlyindustrialized countries divisionoflabor.the international For Japan in participated liberalism andhave certainly them adhere, to to theideasof someextent, all thenuancesofmethodsachieving asawhole,of theeconomy with andsociety have madesignificant intheprogress strides andregions.countries that Allcountries of specificprocesses ofprogress inspecific study our opinion,ishistorical-geographical circle”“vicious ofdifferent world’s views, in The way outofthissituation,the national geographic divisionoflabor. 221.03.2012 10:06:08 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 1 6 the reintegration into theglobaleconomy state of early atthiscountry’s fuel exports of naturalresources. The raw and materials Russia, withitsdiverse andvastpotential materials. include Suchcountries primary competitive goods. However, ithasraw and orhasinadequately market commodity have goodscompetitive ontheworld The firststage. explanation afterwards. economy ispresented inFig. 1withabrief country-follower’s economy into theworld of implementationtheintegration ofa the highestandbestforms”. The scheme oftheworld in theself-development “to ofliberalization,findingitsplace principles intimewiththe acts a country-follower cooperation withleadingcountries, Based onthe “ideology” offoreign economic Fig. 1. Schematic representation of the implement follower’s economy into the world’s economy (R&D stands for research and development). development). and research for stands (R&D economy world’s the into economy follower’s The export-oriented model of development (based on [Portnoy, 1996]) A country does not A country ation of the process of integration of acountry- of integration of process the of ation position intheeconomy. The mostcommon componentformaterial the important intensive goods thatoutcompete theraw andlabor- ofmaterial- becomes anexporter The second stage. favor ofthisidea. such approach isastrong argument in inthebroadest sense),(manufacturing (according to therank)industries sources thesubsequent ofmodernizing and foreign directinvestment are themain sector from ofthe primary theindustries are inthosecountries. Sincetherevenue majorstagesofproductioncorporations; with foreign andmultinational countries considered asthefirststep incooperation divisionoflaborshouldbethe international in in theoverall strategy ofparticipation is inevitable. However, ofexports this type At this stage, the country At thisstage, thecountry 221.03.2012 10:06:08 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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The third stage. clothing, shoes, etc. materials, textiles, chemicalproducts, oil,building highquality goods ofexports: automobile construction section beginning section automobile construction withtherenovationcountries-leaders; ofits “car”, and “semiconductor” “wars” withthe went through thestagesof “textile”, “steel”, in Japanand, asacountry-f years took to fifteen Such arise twenty andequipment. ofmachinery export to the prevailingwent from lightindustry up thesteps ofthetechnological ladder Japanese andtheSouthKorean exports Therefore, theadvancementof associated withthe “Dutch disease”. not have to overcome hugediseconomies stocks ofraw andfuel, materials theydo that,intheabsenceofany significantfact inRussia,isthe countries,two unlike However,Korea. thespecificsofthese JapanandtheRepublicofof postwar bytheexperience scheme issupported domestic cars. The logic nature ofthe ofbecome aproducer andanexporter and engine building, itisimpossibleto logical. Without strong metallurgy modern This schemeisnotstraight-lined, butquite in research anddevelopment. stage.The sixth materials, etc.construction products, communicationequipment,new electronic,electrical, andaerotechnics a widerangeofhightechnology products: stage.The fifth instruments. mobiles, buses, tools and andmeasuring tools, productionlines, turbines, auto- technology-intensive products:machine stage.The fourth ships. machinery, andequipment, construction steelproducts: rolling, forge-and-pressing ofcapital-intensive goods.exporter Typical isbecomingan sectors, thecountry industrial subsequent, according to theranking, 1 1 7 As afinalstep -cooperation The country is exporting isexporting The country By modernizing the modernizing By The country exports exports The country ollower, it the level of so-called large spaces. the level ofso-called and haveworld negative consequencesat theorem canspread to the entire practically example. Therefore, ofthis theprinciples hasbecomeatextbook and othercountries oftheNetherlands of thedeindustrialization deviations). (withcertain confirmed The case theorem hasbeenrepeatedly3. Rybczynski’s world. and geopoliticalbalanceofpower inthe role inthealignment ofthegeoeconomic demand inthissector, whichplays amajor the existingrelative balanceofsupplyand disease ofglobalproportions. This may break fields, the “shale revolution” couldbecomea ofoilandgasregional-scale discovery of inthecontext advanced countries to individual, mainlysmallandmedium earlier,2. If the “Dutch disease” hasspread of theRussianpopulation. oflifeto adramaticreductioninthequality initsprices.reduction This, canlead inturn, whichwillinevitablyleadto a market, significant supplyofenergy to theworld canproducecomponent inparticular. a It of theeconomy ingeneralandofitsexport toby scientistscancontribute restructuring The so-called “shale revolution” predicted sustainable economicstructuresinRussia. real catalystfor transformation inachieving of fuelandcommoditiesmay becomea predominance (40%)indomesticexports “Dutch disease” associated withthemarked aimedatovercoming the 1. Apublicpolicy ofbothcountries. sustainability andto thesocioeconomicrestructuring to contributed the leading country) withtheU.S.infrastructure) (aninnovative advanced technologies andinstitutional of ofJapan(acountry-imitator Interaction 1991]. and North, in theform of “trans-plant” [Philip corridors into theU.S. ofitstransnationalcorporations outawidespread penetration till itcarried in the1990s, itentered into anew “car war” CONCLUSIONS 221.03.2012 10:06:09 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 1 8 13. Zabelina, O. (2004). 13. The Russianspecifics ofthe “Dutch disease” //Problems ofEconomics. 12. Tsymbursky, V.L. ofthe RussianCultural (2001).Ontheseminaronconservatism 11. inRussia(2011)(http://newchemistry.ru/letter.php?n_id=6816Shale industry retrieved Sachs, J.D. andF.B.10. (1996).Macroeconomics. Larrain. AGlobalApproach. StPetersburg. 847 9. Sachs, J. andA. Warner. (1995).Naturalresource abundanceandeconomicgrowth // T.Rybczynski, M.(1955).Factor //Economica, endowments andrelative prices commodity 8. Portnoy, 7. M.(1996). // The tradestrategy experience ofRussiaandtheinternational World 6. Philip, transplants:the N.J. (1991).Japanesemotor industry West andJ. North European 5. Papava, V. (2009).Financial capitalism// andpost-communist crisis World Economy and V.P.Maksakovskyi, 4. oftheJapaneseeconomy (2003).Models //Geography atschool. №10, 3. Kireev, economics:theflowofgoodsandproductionfactors. A.(1997).International theDutch experience andre-industrialization: Ellman, M.(1981).Naturalgas, re-structuring, 2. 1. Economist (2010).Sept.9,2010.(http://www.economist.com/node/16964094; Retrieved cooperation between Russiaandtheleading cooperation between stages oftheintegrated foreign economic progressiona step-by-step upthelarger of laborissuggested. theauthors’ In opinion, Russia’s into division theinternational entry modelof of creation oftheexport-oriented alone thatisnotsufficient.Here, thescheme into account.However, betaken certainly have overcome the “Dutch disease” should instability, that ofthecountries theexperience aboutthethreat of anduncertainty anxiety 4. As aproposal ofovercoming thestate of REFERENCES № 4,pp. 21–32.(inRussian). Foundation //Problems ofPhilosophy. №8,p. 168(inRussian). 14,2012). January p. (inRussian). Paper.Working №5398,pp. 40–61. 22, №84,pp. 336–341. Relations.Economy pp. andInternational 45–53.(inRussian). jstor.org/pss/143540; 18,2012). Retrieved January dimension. EconomicGeography, Vol. 67,No. 2(Apr., 1991),pp. 105–123(http://www. Relations. 2009.№8,pp.International 89–95.(inRussian). pp. 26–31.(inRussian). Part one. pp. 173–174.(inRussian). London, pp. 27–29. //OilorIndustry? of policy 15,2012). January later, bythenewlyindustrialized countries. divisionoflaborbyJapan,and international ofthe oftheusefactor by practice appropriateness oftheschemeissupported research anddevelopment. and Consistency related to thearea ofhightechnologies and intensive stage. stages areThe lasttwo intensive goods;further, to thetechnology- products; then,to thestageofcapital- andlabor-intensivethe stageofmaterial- level offuelandraw transitionto materials; arecountries asfollows: cooperationatthe 221.03.2012 10:06:09 1 . 0 3  . 2 0 1 2

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1 1 9 Tatyana Kolchugina Nikolay S.Mironenko May 2008). May to the2007NobelPeacesubstantial contribution Prize (IPCC, and Technology” (2010).Shehasbeenrecognized for the T.S. Vinson); “Promoting through Sustainability Land-UsePlanning of RussianForests Balance” intheGlobalCarbon (1995, with amongthem: authored 40works; nearly andco-authored “Role development, environment, andclimate change. Shehas interests includegeographic information systems, sustainable Technology OR,USA).Herscientific (Corvallis, Corportation Ph. D. degree in1985.SheisPresident ofSustainableDevelopment of M.V. State in1979; shereceived University Moscow her Economy (2006). V.A. to Geography (2005);Introduction of Kolosov) World (2001); GeopoliticsandPolitical Geography (co-author I.T. Tverdokhlebov) Studies: andMethods (1981);Country Theory works, including:Recreational Geography (co-author Economy 200scientific (since1991).Hehaspublishednearly is HeadandProfessor ofGeography of oftheDepartment World “Recreational SpaceofForeign Europe». ofEastern Countries He Sciences Degree in1988. was The titleofhis dissertation Regionalization Hereceived ofBlackSeaCountries). of hisDoctor M.V. Lomonosov State (Recreational University Moscow graduated from theFaculty ofSoilScience recieved hisPh. D. in1973from 221.03.2012 10:06:09 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 2 0 geoinformatics andsustainabledevelopment, The International Workshop on under35years ofage. of theparticipants 18 candidates ofscienceswithmore thanhalf the workshop, there were and 11doctors andstudentsattendingAmong lecturers well asaconference ofyoung scientists. games, androle-playing 8 workshops as and ecology. There were 16reports, management, environmental management, of sustainabledevelopment, integrated and remote sensingdatato discusschallenges inthefieldofGIS78 studentsandexperts Research. wasattendedThe workshop by from theRussianFoundation for Basic withfinancialsupport was conducted Potential” 9,2011) (September 25–October Technological, andHumanResources for Organizational, Modernization. The International Workshop “GIS Support CARTOGRAPHIC ASSOCIATION WORKSHOPS OF THE INTERNATIONAL geoinformatics, bylocal listened to reports inthefieldof got familiarwiththeactivities universities ofthecities-stops, where they theday,conducted. During studentsvisited gameswere androle-playing and workshops sailing, invited delivered instructors lectures and Samara.Eachday, whiletheshipwas Saratov,stops: Kazan, Astrakhan, Volgograd, delivered withreports inthecities- 5,130 km) Perm-Astrakhan-Perm adistanceof (covering in 2005,onboard aship(Fig. 1),enroute also; itwasheld, similarto thefirstworkshop Russia wasstructuredunderthisscheme workshops. in conducted The workshop of geoinformatics the are during arranged to places ofinterest from thestandpoint and China[four times]).As arule, visits seven years (since2005,inUkraine, Turkey, “GI for Sustainability” hasbeenheldfor Association’sCartographic Commission oftheInternational oftheactivity as part 221.03.2012 10:06:09 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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of Education [Novomoskovsk Branch], aof Education[Novomoskovsk sciences, oftheRussianAcademy University (D.S. Ermakov, ofpedagogical doctor on andEducation”“Sustainable Development social anddemographic processes. Areport stable economicenvironment withpositive to ensure sustainableeconomicgrowth ina for implementationofmeasures necessary levels andsectoral ofhierarchyterritorial information ofvarious and socio-economic geo-demographic,geo-environmental, analysis andsynthesisofspatiallydistributed and content”. There hereviewed issuesof “Integrated Regional GIS: thegoal, objectives, Research madeapresentation University) on Provost (Saratov for State National Innovation Saratov,In Professor A.N.Chumachenko, wereUniversity) examined. State ofbiologicaldoctor sciences;Kazan environmental management(A.A. Saveliev, RAS) andtheuseofGISinecology ofGeographyPh. Institute D., geology; data infrastructures inRussia(A.V. Koshkarev, (September 28),issuesofcreating spatial Federal University (Volga) At Kazan addressed. were experience based oninternational also Issues offormation ofspatialdatabases anditsdevelopment prospects.Digital Earth for Society oftheInternational functioning he presented theideaofestablishmentand –vision,progressEarth andfuture” where Czech on Republic, madeareport “Digital Arctic, wasspecificallystressed. R.Stampach, inthe projects,joint international particularly ofRussianandforeignefforts scientistsin development. The needto integrate the technologies inmodelsofsustainable hadafocus report ontheuseofmodern V.S. State University). (Moscow Tikunov The development inRussiaandtheCIS” byProf. for sustainable“Geoinformation support were on made, includingareport (September 25)where several presentations The Workshop’s inPerm started activities of geoinformatics. teachers and studentsonthecurrent topics andmadepresentations toexperts, local 1 2 1 (Prof. V.V. Sergeev, of physical- doctor interpretation ofremotely senseddata methods usedinthe automated aboutmathematical spoke University Representatives ofSamaraState Aerospace agricultural land. on creating asystem to monitor theuseof spatial datainfrastructure, withemphasis ofusingGISinthedesignexperience of Center of Volgograd region, the described of theGovernmentInformation Technology the region. T.Yu. arepresentative Gribtsova, of dealt withissuesofimproving thestability case studyfor Federal theSouthern District)”, economic development ofthe region (a “A GIS-basedapproach to managing socio- (Ph. D.,A. Plyakin economics),inhisspeech inairandwater. matter transport particulate water and to modelthedynamicsofsurface of computer modelsbasedonGISmethods alsodiscussedthe development territories. It water floodingofthe to describe surface mathematical modelingofthedynamics was devoted to issuesofdevelopment of of theatmosphere andhydrosphere”, andforecastingmodeling inmonitoring system for managementof computer “A specialized geographic information (Ph. D.)particular, byS.S.Khrapov areport andtheoretical(Fig. practical activities 2).In in theintroductionofGISmethods 4)shared theirachievements(October Scientists of Volgograd State University the stated theme. seminar onboard theinterest confirmed to regional economy ofRussia.Afollow-up forof remote the sensingdataoftheEarth solutions andpossiblethematicapplication andpointedmonitoring to thegeo-portal and technical solutionsinoperationalspace Center “ScanEx”, technology onmodern spoke director general oftheEngineering Technical V.E. Gershenzon (Ph. D., technical sciences), 2), State (October University At Astrakhan of theconceptsustainabledevelopment. intheimplementation society facing modern professional education)outlinedproblems educationalinstitutionforprivate higher 221.03.2012 10:06:10 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 2 2 data infrastructure, usinganinternational focused onfeatures ofdesigning spatial the presentations (Fig. 3). The game basedontheresultswas conducted of On board theship, game arole-playing corresponding academician, RAS). Soifer, presidentuniversity inSamara(V.A. (Prof.Astrakhan A.N. Barmyn) andwiththe in Saratov (Prof. V.Z. andin Makarov), (Prof. inKazan A.I. Zyryanov), O.P. Ermolayev), they metwithdifferent deansinPerm (Prof. a numberoforganizations’ leaders. Thus, metwith thecities-stops,In theparticipants organized andconducted. and Processing Remote SensingDatawas A tour to the Volga Center for Receiving agricultural managementinthecountry. implementationofGISina practical of company ProGIS about (Austria), spoke the regional level. D. Mayer, arepresentative problems ofspatialdatainfrastructuresat mathematical sciences)emphasized the JSC “SamaraInformsputnik” (Ph.D, physical- mathematical sciences).A. Chernov, headof in Latvia and in Latvia Tajikistan. ofchanges as to considerpossiblescenarios pessimistic, andaverage) for Russia, aswell with demographic (optimistic, scenarios to develop acomputer system opportunity students, dividedinto sixgroups, hadthe with anemphasisonRussianreality, where on aforecast ofthe world’s population Among otherseminarsthere wasaseminar symbols.digital cartographic reinforced thestudents’ increating skills symbolic space. Asubsequentseminar has oftheir content and and thestructuring features ofpresentation ofweb-maps Center theclass demonstrated “ScanEx”; held bythestaffofEngineering Technical a basemapfor onlinemapping services” was A class and aestheticrepresentation of “Visual infrastructure. develop nationalstandards for spatialdata to has ledto aconclusionthatitisnecessary activities technology inpractical modern a casestudy. A discussionoftheusage project inthebasinofriverAmuras 221.03.2012 10:06:10 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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the reports bytheBelarusteam onthe the reports weremost interesting to theparticipants to thetopics covered attheworkshop. The has shownwideinterest oftheparticipants discussion oftheresults of scientificstudies Active solutionsintheirwork. and software organizations technical thatusemodern participated. There were byeight 11reports Russia, Belarus, andCzech Republicactively of spatialproblems”. Young scientistsfrom GIS andremote sensingdatainsolution conference ofyoung scientists useof “The On board theship, there wasalsoatwo-day presented. the nearest future oftheGISCenter were and projects Then, themainon-going ofresearch. oftheobject and characteristics geoinformatics’ Sciences placeintheEarth resulting discussionwasdevoted to the inRussiawasdemonstrated. market The the development oftheGIS-technologies’ in thePerm region; itsrelationship with ondevelopment ofgeoinformaticsspoke of theGISCenter ofPerm State University, (Ph. D.,S. Pyankov technical sciences),head 1 2 3 more active participation ofstudents,more participation active educational projects, aswell asto promote institutional andinter-regional scientificand 2. to intensify theimplementationofinter- field intheuniversities ofRussia; greater thanthenumberofgraduates inthis demand for to specialistsistwo three times Federation, that,currently, considering the educational institutionsintheRussian inthehigher of studentsinthisspecialty Geoinformatics” andto increase anumber in (departments) and“Cartography to createefforts newteaching units organizational-management 1. to support in Russiaandstated thatitisnecessary: the ofconducting first experience Workshop excellent organization andthesuccessof recognized participants The workshop analyses ofthepopulationforecast». “Geovisualization andspatial-statistical (graduate State University) student,Moscow land managementandbyS.A. Timonin use ofremote sensingdatafor theinternal 221.03.2012 10:06:11 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 2 4 journals on geoinformatics of high rating; ongeoinformaticsjournals ofhighrating; to recognize theneedfor publishingin 5. planning schemes); (territorial planning anddesign activities cloud technologies, andofGISin urban of high-precision positioningsystems, of vehicles,of mobileGIS,unmannedaerial creation databases;oftheuse ofdistributed with geographic information technologies; of studies addressing issuesofinterdisciplinary 4. to recommend to thefuture workshops practical, andeducationalexchange; more widelyastheplatform for scientific, to usethe “InterCarto-InterGIS” conferences conferences, ininternational participation of3. recognizing theimportance (e.g.,educational projects UNIGIS,etc.); teachers, andprofessionals in international kray (September 2–7,2012). kray inAbrau-Dyurso, workshop Krasnodar next training inthefuture andto propose the thepromotion ofthisform of 7. to support technologies; Internet includingtheuseof intheworkshop experts of 6. to considernewforms ofparticipation etc.;Decision», graphical Analysis, Information, and Theory Systems. ofGeo- Journal The International ofGeo-Information», Journal “Geographical ofDigitalJournal Earth», “ISPRS International Geographic Systems», Information “International on Advances ofComputer Sciencefor e.g., Journal AnInternational “GeoInformatica. Sergey V.Sergey Pyankov, VladimirS.Tikunov 221.03.2012 10:06:11 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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8 000–10000words longcanbeaccepted. (or request) Board oftheEditorial orreviews methodological upto and problem articles 5. The optimumsize isabout3000–5000words. ofamanuscript Underthedecision CVs.we encouragetheauthorsto submittheirphotos andshort 4. isto includeinformation style abouttheauthor(s)ofanarticle. The GES Journal Therefore author willbepublished, unlessrequested otherwise. should beidentifiedasa addresses fax numbersande-mail to theappropriatelinked institutionsbytheuseof1,2,3etc superscript. theredone. ismore If thanoneinstitutioninvolved authors’ inthework, namesshouldbe and fullpostaladdress (includingpostalcode)ofthe each author, otherforenames beinggiven asinitialsfollowed andthename bythesurname) areto indicate asked their 3. Allauthorsofanarticle may beused. Papers inFrench are accepted Board. underthedecisionofEditorial 2. Papers are Englishspellingandpunctuation orAmerican accepted inEnglish.EitherBritish arematerials accepted Board. underthedecisionofEditorial published to Earlier thescopeofJournal, reviews articles. (onlysolicited) andbrief 1. Authors are scientificpapersaccording encouragedto submithigh-quality, original work: and health;educationfor sustainabledevelopment. environment gas explorationandenvironmental andbiodiversity; problems; nature conservation geographical andenvironmental andenvironmental studies;geo-informatics mapping;oiland and climate change;environmental regional planning;sustainableregional development; applied and naturalresources; globalandregional human(economicandsocial)geography; environmental science; fundamentalsofsustainabledevelopment; environmental management;environment there ofthejournal areAmong themainthematicsections basicsofgeography andenvironmental welcome, aswell asthosedealingwithfieldstudiesinthesphere ofenvironmental science. etc. Publications thatare interdisciplinary, theoretical andmethodological are particularly sustainable development, GIStechnology, cartography, socialandpoliticalgeography ecologists, naturalresource specialistsinenvironmental use, conservation, educationfor world. Publications are ofthejournal aimedatforeign andRussianscientists–geographers, of geography, andsustainabledevelopment inthechanging environmental conservation at informing andcoveringtheresults ofresearch andglobalachievements inthesphere ’GEOGRAPHY,The scientificEnglishlanguagejournal ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY’ aims GENERAL GUIDELINES AIMS AND SCOPE OF THE JOURNAL 1 ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” CONTRIBUTING TO “GEOGRAPHY, FOR AUTHORSINSTRUCTIONS 2 5 Corresponding Author oftheauthorscouldbepublishedaswell. Oneauthor . address ofthecorresponding The e-mail establishment(s) names (withoneforename in fullfor where was thework Telephone and 221.03.2012 10:06:11 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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1 2 6 electronic versionwithembeddedfigures oftheirmanuscript of “screen” asa. quality 6. To facilitate assessmentandreviewing theeditorial process authors shouldsubmit “full” 2. The appropriate); references; andphoto) CV authors(brief appendices(as words; acknowledgments; key maintext; title;abstract; and contacts; shouldbecompiledinthefollowing 1. Manuscript layout oftables, citationofreferences etc. geogr.msu.ru/GESJournal/index.php themselves to familiarwiththegeneralformat, make Before preparing papers, athttp://www. authorsshouldconsultacurrent issueofthejournal disclosed to authors. The reviewers’ commentsare sentto authorsfor consideration. identifiedbytheassociate editors. reviewers Namesoftheselected and otherexperts are not reviewers from selected namessuggested byauthors, alistofreviewers maintainedbyGES, Board willviewthesenamesassuggestionsonly. Allpapersare reviewed byatleasttwo 7. We reviewers encourageauthorsto listthree intheirfield. potential expert The Editorial methods; 3. The three donotappearinthetitle, shouldbeprovided. objectives, theresults obtained, andtheimplications. Upto six summarize,briefly inoneparagraph (upto thegeneralproblem 1,500characters), and 7. to thefirstnamefollowedcitations shouldbeshortened byetal. should bedifferentiated byletters a,b, cetc. For references withmore authors, thantwo text Author2, 2008]. Two ormore references bythesameauthor(s)publishedinyear and theyear ofpublication the reference should begiven insquare brackets,i.e. [Author1, have atleastonecorresponding reference inthetext. 6. Whenever possible, total number of separate fileinoriginal format (MS Word, Excel, etc.). indicated inthecolumnheadings.should beclearly Eachtableshould besubmitted asa Parameterslines ofexplanation(ifnecessary). beingmeasured, withunitsifappropriate, 5. A, B, C,etc. Figure captionsshouldbesubmitted asaseparate file. illustrations) intheorder oftheircitationinthetext. should benotlessthan300dpi.Please numberall figures (graphs, photographs, charts, and original formats (CorelDraw, Adobe Photoshop, Adobe Resolutionofraster images Illustrator). 4. All clarity. The next-level subdivisionsare possiblefor ortheircombination. (c)and(d)sections references (in Russian)etc. Original languagesotherthanEnglishshouldbe indicated intheendofreference, e.g. with Arabicnumbers. References to thesameauthor(s) should beinchronological order. MANUSCRIPT PREPARATION Tables References figures main body title shouldbenumbered title followed consecutively andinclude abrief byupto several (c) . It is often anadvantageto isoften combine(c)and(d)withgainsofconciseness . It shouldbeconcisebutinformative to thegeneral reader. The (includingphotos oftheauthors)are required to besubmitted asseparate filesin results mustbelisted inalphabeticalorder attheendofpaperandnumbered ofthepapershouldbedividedinto: (a) ; (d) discussion ; (e) references conclusion should not exceed 25–30. Each entry must shouldnotexceed 25–30.Eachentry order ; (f) ; (f) Composite figures

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1 2 8 “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, Circulation 500ex. Digital print 55 p. sh. Format 32 Order Ngi112 06.03.2012 Sent into print E-mail: [email protected] Fax 7-495-9167673 Phone 7-495-9167574 Nizhnyaya Syromyatnicheskaya, 5/7,2 105120Russia Moscow andPublishingAdvertising Agency “Advanced Solutions” E-mail: [email protected] Fax 7-495-9328836 Phone 7-495-9392923 Faculty ofGeography, 2108a Gory,Leninskie 119991Russia Moscow M.V. Lomonosov State University Moscow EDITORIAL OFFICE registration: ПИМФС77-29285,2007,August 30. in sphere ofmasscommunicationsandprotection ofaculturalheritage. of The certificate ofthelegislation The magazineisregistered ofobservance inFederal onsupervision service magazineThe is published withfinancial oftheRussian support Geographical Society. ofGeography andInstitute University oftheRussianAcademy ofSciences FOUNDERS OF THE MAGAZINE: No. 01(v. 05)2012 ISSN 2071-9388 DESIGN & SUSTAINABILITY” SOCIALLY SCIENTIFIC MAGAZINE ½ PRINTING 46cm/2 Faculty ofGeography, M.V. Lomonosov State Moscow 221.03.2012 10:06:12 1 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 2

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