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System Trends and Their Impact on Future Microprocessor Design IBM Research System Trends and their Impact on Future Microprocessor Design Tilak Agerwala Vice President, Systems IBM Research System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research Agenda System and application trends Impact on architecture and microarchitecture The Memory Wall Cellular architectures and IBM's Blue Gene Summary System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research TRENDSTRENDS Microprocessors < 10 GHz in systems 64-256 Way SMP 65-45nm, Copper, Highest performance SOI Best MP Scalability 1-2 GHz Leading edge process technology 4-8 Way SMP RAS, virtualization ~100nm technology 10+ of GHz 4-8 Way SMP SMP/Large 65-45nm, Copper, SOI Systems Highest Frequency Cost and power Low GHz sensitive Leading edge process Uniprocessor technology Desktop ~100nm technology 2-4 GHz, Uniproc, Component-based and Game ~100nm, Copper, SOI Consoles Lowest Power / Lowest Multi MHz cost designs SoC capable Embedded Uniprocessor ASIC / Foundry ~100-200nm technologies Systems technology System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research TRENDSTRENDS Large system application trends Traditional commercial applications Databases, transaction processing, business apps like payroll etc. The internet has driven the growth of new commercial applications New life sciences applications are commercial and high-growth Drug discovery and genetic engineering research needs huge amounts of compute power (e.g. protein folding simulations) Important applications will scale out Large-scale parallelism Little or no interaction between computations e.g., web application serving, life sciences, softswitch, video streaming, financial front-ends, ERP, CRM, eProcurement System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research TRENDSTRENDS Large SMP systems SMPs support upward scalable workloads Workloads that scale well with more processors under a single system image Close interaction between threads e.g., databases, decision-support systems SMPs are also efficient with workloads that scale out Other cost-effective solutions are available Today: larger than 16-32 way SMPs 64-256 way systems foreseen for future workloads Robust RAS characteristics Robust virtualization/logical partitioning capabilities Staple on the mainframes for decades Cross-pollination with other high-end platforms is happening now Likely to trickle down to every platform except, maybe, embedded System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research Synchronization and coherence structures create new bottlenecks in SMPs SMP CPI Even the single thread performance worsens as the number of finite cache CPI adder perfect cache CPI processors increases Perfect cache performance worsens because of locking and synchronization Greater OS pathlength than on a uniprocessor Synchronization operations are slow CPI Finite cache performance deterioration Interaction among processors 1 6 13 # of processors System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research TRENDSTRENDS Large "blade" systems Usually intended for workloads that scale out Logically same as clusters Classic distributed memory multicomputer systems "Data center" or "grid" in a box Many inexpensive, possibly heterogeneous, nodes called blades Shared power/storage infrastructure Must minimize total system power and cost Each blade can be a small SMP One OS instance on each blade (typical) Simplified system management System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research TRENDSTRENDS Large high-performance systems 100000 New trends are towards 10000 High compute density IBM Blue Gene™ Low cost 1000 Power efficiency 84% CGR Riken MDM* High system reliability 100 TeraFLOPS ASCI 10 IBM Deep Blue®* 1 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year * Special purpose machines, i.e. chess, molecular dynamics, protein folding. Source: ASCI Roadmap www.llnl.gov/asci, IBM Moravec 1998, www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research TRENDSTRENDS Evolution of game applications and infrastructure Time Full interaction, Nature "Transactional" immersive Enhanced user interaction of Pre-rendered Highly collaborative Automatic generation Applications Fixed content Dynamic synthesis, On-demand generation Timely updates of versions Adaptive Global Distribution The Internet "On-demand" Media CD/DVD Infrastructure 2001 2003 2005+ System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research TRENDSTRENDS Online gaming potential Rev $B 5.8 8.0 11.0 13.3 16.3 20.0 Online gaming set to become a significant part of the total games 74% market Off-line Online Console-based online gaming is expected to pass PC-based online %Total Games 26% gaming in 2003-2004 timeframe Rev 256 344 569 1,228 2,660 5,279 $M PC Console 25% %Total Online 75% 100% Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: Forrester research 8/2000 - US Market only System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research TRENDSTRENDS Game processors and systems Huge growth in console game processors Desktop processors will push the frequency curve for the foreseeable future Desktop processors can be retooled, adapted, or used without modifications in game consoles Special hardware (e.g. nVidia add-on cards) Attached processors (e.g. Sony PlayStation2) Dedicated coprocessors Special purpose functional units (e.g., AltiVec, SSE2) Game consoles could grow to become set-top boxes, home media and entertainment servers System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research TRENDSTRENDS Embedded Systems Embedded Systems are specialized or dedicated computers used to control appliances, devices and machines Platforms that use embedded systems include consumer appliances, IT devices and industrial/commercial machines Consumer: PDAs, game consoles, set top boxes, automotive control systems, home appliances IT: Printers, copiers, faxes, teller machines, telecom switches and routers, modems, videoconferencing, disk controllers Industrial/commercial: robotics, data acquisition, manufacturing control, process control, medical imaging and monitoring, aerospace, satellite systems, radar systems System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research TRENDSTRENDS Growth in Embedded Devices Embedded devices will Embedded Programmable Devices be pervasive 22 On average, 3 20 embedded 18 16 devices/person on the 14 planet by 2011 12 10 8 Billions of Units 6 4 2 0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 CAGR 10.3% Source: Gartner 2002: Microprocessor, Microcontroller and Digital Signal Processor Forecast Through 2005 System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research Embedded systems characteristics New embedded applications are media-rich e.g., video-condap41i 0 0 1 0 6l Tf hone.1765 0.7137 0.702 rg ET 142.8 417 m 393138.6 313.4 3902.8 409.2 385S Q BT 162 407.4 380 0 0 rg /F3 181 T3030.1271 07 -0.1deoDSPmedia-be0 1 uslicto fulfi Tfations are -specific requirements in .1765 -22 0 0 071 216-0.1271 0-0.1deoed systems chara.1765 0.7137 0.702 rg ET 142.8 441 l 37.815.2 441 l 3453 434.4 3453 434.4 37.815b* BT 135.6 430.8 3 TD 0 0 rg /F0 21.0282 Tf -0.3658 Tc 2 Tw (e.g.,)Ceristics System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research Agenda System and application trends Impact on architecture and microarchitecture Architecture impact Microarchitecture impact and system bottlenecks Energy efficiency Component-based design System reliability Virtualization and logical partitioning The Memory Wall Cellular architectures and IBM's Blue Gene Summary System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research Impact of the Architecture Special functions for the trends Enhanced ISA functionality game and embedded Virtualization/LPAR space Power Power-aware microarchitecture Low-power cpu cores/components Low-power circuits Low-power process technology Microarchitecture Power-aware pipelines Meet the frequency curve Availability Need for ILP and task parallelism continues Intra-processor redundancy Balanced designs for power/performance System component redundancy Cost SoC-like design Component-based design SoC Better tools LargeLarge systemssystems DesktopDesktop andand GameGame EmbeddedEmbedded System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research IMPACTIMPACT ofof thethe TRENDSTRENDS Architecture: ISA alone not a performance differentiator New applications are fairly ISA-agnostic But legacy applications are tightly connected to legacy ISAs RISC vs. CISC performance battle is over Modern CISCs implemented as RISCs internally Only the total system performance matters The new challenge is functionality Virtualization/logical partitioning; SIMD/DSP extensions; power Clear advantage to having single ISA from high-end to low-end System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak Agerwala © 2002 IBM Corporation IBM Research IMPACTIMPACT ofof thethe TRENDSTRENDS PowerPC spans the entire spectrum for new applications Power 4+ High-end Power 4 Power 3 Power 2 970 Price/Performance Leadership 750FX 750 603e 440GP 401 405GP 405LP Today Future System Trends and their Impact | MICRO 35 | Tilak
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