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Perspectivesperspectives Dede Politiquepolitique Economiqueeconomique PERSPECTIVESPERSPECTIVES DEDE POLITIQUEPOLITIQUE ECONOMIQUEECONOMIQUE 1er colloque Luxembourgeois sur l’Économie de la connaissance dans une perspective européenne le gouvernement du grand-duché de luxembourg Ministère de l'Économie et du Commerce extérieur The “Perspectives de Politique Economique” series includes reports, studies, research results or summarys of conferences commanded by or carried out by employees of the Ministry of Economy and Foreign trade or by experts of associated institutions. Opinions expressed in these publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily correspond with those of the Ministry of the Economy and Foreign trade. For any request or suggestion: Ministry of the Economy and Foreign trade of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg Directorate general of economic studies L – 2914 Luxembourg Tél (+352) 24784155 Fax (+352) 26 86 45 18 Email: [email protected] The following persons contributed to this publication: Serge Allegrezza (Ministry of the Economy and Foreign Trade/STATEC) Alexandra Guarda-Rauchs, Martine Hildgen, Sonja Rekker-Weber, Pierre Thielen (Ministry of the Economy and Foreign Trade) Anne Dubrocard, Anna-Leena Asikainen, Dominique Bianco (CRP Henri- Tudor/Observatoire de la Compétitivité/STATEC) Gilbert McNeill, Management and Technology Consultancy Inc. Lionel Fontagné, Université Paris I Panthéon Sorbonne Massimiliano Marcellino, European Institute of Florence © Ministry of the Economy and Foreign Trade, Luxembourg, 2008 1 Preface A crisis is not like an incurable illness: it is more like a new birth! Pierre Mauroy Luxembourg is not sheltered from the financial maelstrom. It is still far too early to estimate what repercussions this phenomenon will have on the country’s economy. In contrast, what is certain is that how Luxembourg’s competitive position shapes up as the crisis recedes will depend largely on the implementation of the National Plan for Innovation and Full Employment. The measures of the national Plan are part of the Lisbon Strategy and are supported by the social partners who met in the Tripartite Coordination Committee in April 2006 and those in the Economic and Social Council. The measures also enjoy the support of Parliament. The financial crisis that has struck at the core of our economic motor is a reminder to us of just how vulnerable we are. Yet all crises are also opportunities to be seized! Continuously diversifying our economic fabric has always been a high priority: now it has become an urgent obligation. The analysis completed by the Observatoire has already indicated that diversification must be carried out in non-financial sectors of the economy. This Competitiveness Report emphasizes the deterioration of the economic situation in Luxembourg and calls for a productivity-based reinvigoration of economic policies through improved product and services quality and more specialization of the products of craftsmen, retail trade and manufacturing companies. It is only possible to offer a range of specialized, high quality products for export through innovation and research, and through the management of immaterial resources. Evidence provided by a study carried 2 out by the research consortium sponsored by the Observatoire de la Compétitivité clearly illustrate that R & D efforts promote the development of new innovative products, which in turn increases productivity levels in companies and consequently their competitiveness. This virtuous circle has always been sought after; here is an analysis that shows the existence of a statistical linkage. It is a full justification of Luxembourg’s implementation of policy that promotes R & D and innovation. “Better competitiveness means greater purchasing power”. I emphasize the watchword for this edition of the Bilan Compétitivité. It cannot be stressed enough that the economic well-being of the country is best ensured by improving inhabitants’ purchasing power. To achieve this, we must maintain high levels of productivity and strong progress in employment and economic growth. One cannot exist without the other! Focusing exclusively on the inflation rate - a sort of “index mania” - hardly addresses the problem of purchasing power. In line with the Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Jobs, the Government supports purchasing power through an action plan to combat excessive inflation and through fiscal and social measures that increase disposable incomes of households. Progress achieved through the implementation of the National Plan for Innovation and Full Employment should be scrutinized by means of monitoring and effective evaluation processes. This monitoring should be founded on qualitative and quantitative analyses that compare resources expended to results achieved. The Government, Parliament and the social partners all require reliable, objective and official data readily available to all parties in order to determine our competitive situation. The Observatoire de la Compétitivité aims to provide this through its 2008 Bilan Compétitivité. Jeannot KRECKE Minister of the Economy and Foreign Trade 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 The Observatoire de la Compétitivité: 2007-2008 ....................................................... 7 1.1 Role and Mission of the Observatoire de la Compétitivité .............................................. 7 1.2 The Lisbon Strategy and the National Plan for Innovation and Full Employment ......... 7 1.3 Events and publications in 2008 ...................................................................................... 9 1.3.1 Colloquia and conferences ........................................................................................ 9 1.3.2 Economic Policy Perspectives ................................................................................ 14 1.3.3 Newsletter: La Lettre de l’Observatoire de la Compétitivité .................................. 15 1.3.4 The Observatoire de la Compétitivité web site ....................................................... 15 1.4 An Outline of the 2008 Competitiveness Report ........................................................... 16 2 Price Competitiveness and Indexation: Implications for the Grand-Duchy by Lionel Fontagné......................................................................................................................... 18 2.1 Competitiveness in trade ................................................................................................ 19 2.2 Price and Cost Competitiveness in Luxembourg ........................................................... 24 2.3 Indexation and propagation of inflation and price competitiveness .............................. 29 2.4 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 32 3 Casting the spotlight on real effective exchange rates ............................................ 34 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 34 3.2 The Real Effective Exchange Rate of Luxembourg ...................................................... 34 3.3 Methodology and Weightings ........................................................................................ 37 3.4 Results ............................................................................................................................ 39 3.4.1 Price Competitiveness ............................................................................................. 39 3.4.2 Cost competitiveness .............................................................................................. 41 3.5 Comparison with other published REER indicators ...................................................... 42 3.5.1 The Luxembourg Central Bank (BCL) ................................................................... 42 3.6 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 43 3.7 Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 44 4 Controlling Inflation: Better Competitiveness Means Greater Purchasing Power46 4.1 The real debate about purchasing power ....................................................................... 46 4.2 Purchasing Power of Households .................................................................................. 48 4.2.1 Changes in purchasing power ................................................................................. 48 4.2.2 An international comparison: distinctions between notions of wealth, purchasing power and the cost of living ............................................................................................. 56 4.3 Cost and price competitiveness ...................................................................................... 60 4.4 Controlling excessive inflation Luxembourg ................................................................. 61 4.4.1 The Tripartite Coordination Committee reform package ....................................... 61 4.4.2 Implementing the action plan to counter excessive inflation .................................. 63 4.5 Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 70 5 Benchmarks of Competitiveness and Attractiveness .............................................. 72 5.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................
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