Outlook on Power Market Adequacy Central Western Europe May 2019
For Discussion Purposes
Study performed for ENGIE
Advisory and Advanced Analytics
1 INTERNAL 2 (CHPs, Hydro PSs,etc.) Others Biomass Hydro RES Hydro Wind GTs CCGTs, Lignite& Coal Nuclear Photovoltaic
x2 > 90 GW CWE4* [GW] CWE4* - Capacity Evolution RES & Existing Thermal Existing RES & Evolution Capacity * BE, DE, FR, NL FR, DE, BE, * TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics - (non UK (2025) : More than 90GW of today’s reliable thermal capacity by capacity closed thermal reliable today’s of 90GW than More : BE Nuclear (2025), (2025), IT ) Ampere Ampere Scenario May 2019May RTE Demand & Peaks & Demand basedGeneration RES RES Development basedGeneration - - (end of 2022) and and 2022) (end of (end of 2021), 2021), (end of Gas Coal DE FR 16 (58) GW in in 2018 16 (58) GW(2030) 133 (191) GW in in 2018 (2030), GW133 (191) (2029). NL out in out in out in out in - - 30 30 : ~0.35% (both for annual and peak load) - Onshore Offshore 108 (350) GW in 2018 (2030), in GW108 (350) E TYNDP 2018 : Decentralized Generation - Wind Wind PV
• • Entso Capacity installed EU14 in (modelling scope): • Nuclear phase France Nuclear according to in 2030 in 48.5 GWtoday and 63.1 GW ( Policy Policy driven IEA WEO 2017 New Policies IEA WEO 2017 New Policies Scenario CAGR2018 CCGT 20y, GT 20y . A sensitivity A sensitivity foreseen with is GT 20y . CCGT economic 20y, reconversion, extension, lifetime asset management: development) brownfield Technical Technical lifetime existing on technical assets, based of Operation lifetime: Policy Policy driven Coal phased is CCS, 2025) and Technical countries 40y in (economic other of lifetime extensions not allowed).
Capacity OutlookCapacity 2030. Intermittent Wind and PV will 140GW. more by than increasing will PV double, Wind and Intermittent 2030. INTERNAL 3 scarcity scarcity INCENTIVES 2026 23. 23. - CASE WITHOUT FURTHER WITHOUT CASE 2025 2024 Germany tends toGermany experience more scarcity events than than events the scarcityneighbours 2023 Time (weeks) Time 2022 between between now and 2030 capacity could be capacity closedcould be TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics More than 90 GW of reliable of reliable than 90 More GW Expected number of scarcity hours per week [hours/week] week per hours of scarcity numberExpected 2021 Firm Firm CapacityEvolution CWE4* [GW] Lead timeLead to develop new capacity May 2019May 2020 Designing Designing a mechanism
0 30 10 20 40
events tend to happen simultaneously across countries as of winter 2022 winter across as of countries simultaneously happen tend to events Without further incentives to keep existing or to build new reliable capacity, capacity, reliable build new or to to keep existing incentives further Without INTERNAL
NET IMPORTER NET EXPORTER 4 during during 2025 - net during during is ais 2024 exporters INCENTIVES net are CASE WITHOUT FURTHER WITHOUT CASE Belgium importer events scarcity in Belgium 2024 - Netherlands eventscountry scarcity in the 2023 4 5 2023 - 2022 3 : 2022 - during during 2021 position is not so clearso is not position importer net France highly volatility scenarios across is ais scarcity events in eventscountry scarcity in the 2021 - Germany 2020 distribution of the exchange balance per country in scarcity moments [GW] moments scarcity in countryper balance exchange the of distribution average 2020 - P5 P95 Simplified version for communication purposes purposes in backup version for communication Simplified 2019 P75 P50 P25 1 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2 not often scarce is and the be capacity to are net importersnetare generation May 2019May tends are net providersnetof are Hence, . capacity interconnection can be either net importer oreitherimporter netbe can . that Probabilistic Approach Probabilistic Balances during scarcity moments scarcity during Balances Interconnections vs.Generation Interconnections saturated find reliable capacityreliable France situationthe on dependingexporter Germany BelgiumandGermany capacityreliableof NetherlandsThe
resource We not transmission 3 5 4 • • • Accounting for meteorological uncertainty (wind (wind uncertaintymeteorological for Accounting & demand) water availability, & PV generation, unavailabilitypower thermal unforeseen
Power There Power net are providers and markets interconnected. importers net highly are of capacity peak. at capacity of
2 1 INTERNAL 5 y ty out policies out - TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics Key Messages Key - border capacity sharing, coordination between national authorities is thus essential thus is nationalauthorities between coordination sharing, capacity border - May 2019May We should seek a market based regional solution regional basedmarket a seek should We to allow cross allow to basis sustainablea on issue the solve willnot solutions market of out hoc Ad relevant years are not always considered in their assessment their in considered always not are years relevant simultaneouslissues adequacy face considered countries all concern: regionala is adequacy markets, interconnected inhighly peak at resource scarce the is transmission than rather generation that appears it hence, they contain little or no information on effective use of transmission capacity and availability of foreign generation capaci generation foreign of and availability capacity transmission ofuse effective on informationno or little contain they studies across lot a varying and thus uncertain highly is capacity and coalnuclear especiallyon outlook the significant baseload capacity is leaving, driven by implemented or announced nuclear and coalphase and nuclear announced or implemented by driven leaving, is capacity baseload significant challenges and reliability flexibility creating also but objectives, climate meet to needed are renewables more
— — Measures to incentivize market based investment in generation capacity have thus to be taken immediately be taken to thus have capacity generation in investment based market incentivize to Measures — — Our assessment strongly indicates that adequacy issues appear as of winter 2022/23 winter of as appear issues adequacy that indicates strongly assessment Our — — — National and regional adequacy studies do not give comfort, as they only provide a partial picture partial a provide only they as comfort, give not do studies adequacy regional and National — — Outlook on power system adequacy in Central Western Europe (BE, DE, FR,NL): a regional issue regional a FR,NL): DE, (BE, Europe Western Central in adequacy system power on Outlook — CWE4 Adequacy Outlook Adequacy CWE4 Appendix
6 Recent Developments
7 INTERNAL 8 . 23 - shortfall identifiedshortfall studytheby Total at CWE4 levelat CWE4Total possible capacitypossible upside Capacity availability risk vs. Investment needs [GW] vs. needsrisk Investment availability Capacity on 5 coal driven out . . regarding Germany, based +7.3GW availability in . 2022 2035 CHP out phasing to lower - 4 availability TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics year % for 5 (Lignite) . Gas government the A phase lower out to . - for of postponed coal 3 Reserve French CHP view phase the lifetime Risk Commission adequacy issues appear as of Winter 2022 Winter of appear as issues adequacy . of target : not (FR) does coal nuclear and (DE) on information Recent the coal Coal % of Coal Climate 50 of updated result . 01 : / extended the a the 2 18 availability of . of as proposed with (PPE) on 01 / May 2019May here law, the Germany 26 of in nuclear reconversion on increase CHP capacity result lignite maintenance a considered 1 nuclear Uncertain by is and Possible as Possible existing Announcement Proposal : Recent Coal and Nuclear Developments Developments Nuclear and Coal Recent 5 4 3 1 2 • • • • •
2022
on
Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity change the view view that the change Zoom INTERNAL 9 . on on on . time, years in capacity relevant isolation all view availability considered in all uncertain especially and information moments country highly important consider . no a diverging is principle outlook of consider . or peak capacity a the in since at outs) - should different , little at fact, is are adequacy partially 2025 (phase In capacity studies . necessarily the there transmission coal and least foreseen/expected of not performed but and at are capacity now use generation do interactions assesses are Adequacy (FR) . Key Insights Insights Key study foreign nuclear Studies years between reductions No Market consistently, effective of Studies explaining available • • • TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics - 2017 Title and Institution and Title May 2019May Prévisionnel Pentalateral ReportPentalateral ° Medium Adequacy Forecast 2018 AdequacyForecastMedium 2 Medium Adequacy Forecast 2017 Adequacy ForecastMedium Bilan Electricity Scenario for BelgiumScenario Electricity 2050 towards Security of supply in Germanysupply ofSecurity countriesitsneighboringand Study2017& Flexibility Adequacy 2027 Studies under the Analysis Scope Analysis the under Studies
Year 2018 2017 2015 2016 Recent studies only provide a partial view adequacy. on view partial a provide only studies Recent INTERNAL 10 23 - Severe issues appear issuesSevere appear in countries as all of winter 2022 22, 22, LOLE - Until winter 2021 winter Until at acceptable remains levels Expected scarcity hours during winter periods [hours/year] periods winter during hours scarcity Expected . Energy Energy Not Served [GWh/y] 3h winter 2022/23 winter TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics * BE, DE, FR, NL FR, DE, BE, * CWE4* [GW] CWE4* - (Hydro (Hydro PS, CHPs,etc.) More than than capacityMore of 90 reliable GW could be could be between closed now and 2030 CCGTs, CCGTs, GTs Others May 2019May Nuclear Coal & LigniteCoal
Capacity Evolution Existing Thermal & RES & Thermal Existing Evolution Capacity
Without further incentives to keep existing or to build new reliable capacity, severe capacity, reliable build new or to to keep existing incentives further Without adequacy of as appear issues adequacy INTERNAL 11 although scarcity is a regional issue,a isregional although scarcity their expected countries are to limit exports curtailment to avoid internal Scarcity Scarcity hours Involuntary Involuntary load curtailment Scarcity Scarcity without invol. load curtailment Activation of DSM and Reserves preventing brownouts Reserves only activation hours Reserve and DSM activation hours and DSM activation Reserve TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics h/yh/y - DE RESERVE DE May 2019May NL 2019 - FR Grid Reserve Grid DE Net Capacity (GW) (GW) Capacity Net Until Until 2018 Winter Smart Smart Energy Demand Coalition: DSM (constant) DSM According According law to the
- Climate Reserve Climate BE
Explicit Demand Explicit Demand Response Europe in « Mapping the Market 2017” DSM potential at DSM based available on potential peak SEDC Reserves and DSM contribution to System Adequacy to System contribution DSM and Reserves INTERNAL 12 out end 2022 - out end 2029out (no biomass conversion assumed) - 23 - [GW at peak] [GW at Nuclear phase Coal and Lignite in line with announced early 2019targets Coal phase Adequacy Adequacy & Capacity Balance CWE4 28/05/2019 out end 2022out -
Coal phase Nuclear capacity according PPE (announcedthe to early 2019) 2 GW nuclear 2 capacity GW extended until 2045
Strong need for new reliable capacity expected as of 2022 of as expected capacity reliable new for need Strong Overcapacity in CWE4 is quickly fading away fading quickly is CWE4 in Overcapacity INTERNAL 13 15GW – coal coal 8GW – Target Target 2022 2.5GW - Closures Closures based on technical lifetime (unless units enter the Climate Reserve) Target Target 2030 operating ? 2.2GW - SoS out by latest. out at the 2038 by - Coal Capacity [GW] Capacity Coal Grid Grid Reserve scheme assumed to end 2019 in Study Study assumptions: 9GW 15GW – – Target Target 2030 Target Target 2022 Closures Closures based on technical lifetime (unless units enter the Climate Reserve) TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics + 4.8GW + , not SoS May 2019May Lignite Capacity [GW] Capacity Lignite Climate Climate Reserve only for operating in the market
Study Study assumptions: To what extend will current reserve schemes be extended to retain capacity leaving the market for market the leaving capacity retain to be extended schemes reserve will current extend what To
and lignite capacity by 2022&2030, with phase a complete with 2022&2030, by capacity lignite and The German Coal Commission announced on 26/01/2019 targets for targets on 26/01/2019 announced Commission Coal German The INTERNAL 14 based (BP 2017). 2017). (BP this target thistarget to 2035 Ampère Scenario Ampère The new The PPEdelays aimed at reaching the at reaching aimed target in 50% Nuclear the French the French production mix by 2030 2030 by mix PPE 2018 PPE Scenario Ampère on Ampère on based Term Long Long TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics Nuclear French Evolution [GW]Evolution French Nuclear
May 2019May
nuclear capacity (PPE). capacity nuclear The French Government published on 25/01/2019 new long term projections for projections term long new on 25/01/2019 published Government French The INTERNAL 15 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics May 2019May
Detailed view on exchanges at scarcity at exchanges view on Detailed developments Recent Recent studies on power system adequacy system power on studies Recent assumptions Study on adequacy View
• • • • • Agenda INTERNAL 16 Legend problem. problem. A coloured coloured A an adequacy adequacy an square identifies square 6 GW ofGW 6 - . 2040 (at least 3.3 GW new) and new) GW3.3 least(at 2030 7 GW byGW 7 - 5.5 , depending on the scenario: 5 scenario: the on depending , thermal capacity would be needed to ensure an ensureto needed be would capacity thermal Elia 2050 Elia 5.5 GW thermal), 2. Environmental Decommissioning (Coal Phased out) out) Phased(Coal Decommissioning 2. Environmentalthermal),GW5.5 - adequate system by system adequate of least at GW maintain 3. Coal phase out & 40y old nuclear not extendednotnuclearold & 40yout3. phase Coal to 5 - (new 4 BE , in block 2027 GW) 5 . ELIA structural 3 adequacy 1. Economical Decommissioning ( DecommissioningEconomical1. : TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics Sensitivites LT + underlines the underlines and its rapidity its and Basecase Pentalateral May 2019May but for Germany due to the eventual eventual the to due Germany for coal and lignite Phase Out Out Phase lignite and coal Non issues Non (only looks at years 2020 and 2025)andyears 2020atlooks (only 2025)and 2020at years looks(only Sensitivity Carbon Low uncertainty
, 1. Coal phase out & 10y revision visits for 12m; 2. High Consumption + ConsumptionHigh2. forrevision 12m;visits& 10y out phase Coal, 1.
MAF 2017MAF MAF2018, Pentalateral Energy Forum,Energy Pentalateral Consetec RTE External studies provide a diverging view on adequacy. on view a diverging provide studies External INTERNAL 17 coal 2017 The new The government in Spain implement may new policies fostering transition by the end of 2021endby the of Prévisionnel Pentalateral Report Pentalateral ° President President Macronannounced outphase 2 Bilan by 2030 by Italy announcedItaly coal that phase out of coal of outphase will will be phased2025 out by nuclear plants announced the The incoming incoming The coalition Dutch Government which which thenewforbid construction of Switzerland Switzerland adoptedEnergy Act the Medium Adequacy 2017Forecast Adequacy Medium 2027 - Electricity Belgiumtowards2050Scenariofor Electricity TRACTEBEL Advisory Advisory TRACTEBELand Advanced Analytics in in 2025 50% 50% fortarget fired fired power by 2025 stations May May 2019 - and restrict their their 2023anduse restrict by Adequacy & Flexibility Study 2017Study & Flexibility Adequacy nuclearproduction UK GovernmentUK has announced plans to close all coal Franceadopted the Policies Studies
and its neighboringcountriesitsand
Possible differences in adequacy assessment can be driven by different timings different by driven can be adequacy assessment in differences Possible Studies considered Studies Security of supply in Germany Germany supply in Security of INTERNAL 18 Different views, views, relatedDifferent out in in momentsout different - especially especially to announced coal phase 8.3 GW 8.3 - Coal & Lignite CWE4 Lignite Coal & How number this will be impacted by the foreseencoal phasing out policy in Germany? of coal capacity in coal in capacity of Germany Low Carbon Sensitivity Low Carbon Sensitivity GW MAF MAF 2018 TRACTEBEL Advisory Advisory TRACTEBELand Advanced Analytics . of French Nuclear Capacity Capacity Installed Nuclear CWE4Nuclear May May 2019 and will continue to do so in the coming years. in the coming do so to will continueand – due to the assumed assumed due to the From MAF 2017 to MAF MAF From MAF 2017 GW +6to 2018 Important differences in Nuclear assumptions, Nuclear in differences assumptions, Important
GW
The view on future nuclear and coal capacity has changed significantly significantly changed has capacity coal and nuclear future view on The over time time over INTERNAL 19 Border - Poland, Nordics Poland, SO&AF 2014 SO&AF SO&AF 2014 SO&AF 2010,2011,2012 France, Benelux, Italy, Benelux, France, Weather yearWeather data Germany, Switzerland, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Republic, Czech Austria, Cross Market Simulation Model CONSETEC 2015 ) ) Meteo PLEF ° from MAF from MAF2017 MAF2017 2 80 (49) GW BP 2017 55 (24)GW : : – ifferent Countries ANTARES and Thermal Thermal and in2017 (2035) TYNDP2016 Interconnected Interconnected and the Coal Focus Focus on France Flow Based Approach Based Flow In line In w/ Nuclear 3) 1) + nuc. extended + nuc.1) 3) RTE RTE 4) 1)+ no nuc. extended nuc. no1)+ 4) and Temperatures ( Temperatures and France: France: and 6à chronicles for Hydro Hydro for chronicles 6à and 200 chronicles for Wind, PV Wind,for chronicles 200 1) Coal Phase Out by 2022by Out Phase Coal 1) 4bis) High cons., low cons., low cons.,High 4bis) 2) No extension of nuc. park nuc. of extension No 2) PPE High; PPE High + DSM + High PPE High; PPE From 2 to 15 GW of 15 GW2 to From 8GW in cases) 50% in of 8GW import capacity capacity import least (at reasons , FR:for envi 78 (59) GW MAF2017 data) 48 (41)GW : : MAF2017 , (exception load NTC LR LR NTC Focus onFocus PowrSym Countries, ANTARES, ANTARES, Pentalateral in2018 (2023) EU + Turkey + EU MAF2017 PLEF PLEF Report 5) Grid sensitivity Grid 5) Coal 3) Reduced nuclear Reduced 3) ° Nuclear In line w/ lineIn w/ 2 4) Additional Flexibilities Additional 4) BP2017 Flow Based Approach SR Approach Based Flow In line In w/ 2) Decom. due to due Decom. 2) 1) Decom. due to econ reasons econ to due Decom. 1) , FR:for 2027 - , Federal + : achieving long achieving : EU : prosumers and prosumers : MAF2017 80GW (52)[30] EU22 EU22 MAF2017 BP2016 : 56GW (30)[15] ELIA study ELIA RES ANTARES : Same as theSame as Based on the Adequacy Adequacy and EV and hybrid HP hybrid and EV Development Plan Development ELIA towards ELIA towards 2050 Flexibility Flexibility 2017 in2016 (2030) [2040] high Coal Focus Focus on Belgium, Decentral In line w/ lineIn w/ TYNDP2016 Nuclear term climate policies. 2bis): policies. climate term 2) +30 GW in interconnection in interconnection in GW+30 1) high electrification. 1bis) High 1bis) electrification. high In line In w/ , : 1.5*BC : 2027) - updated with SO&AF SO&AF 2015 RES EU19 EU19 growth 6,5 GW. 6,5 80GW (76)[56] 2017/2027 wind prod timelines, timelines, prod wind neighbors : 2017 : + 2GW or isolated or 2GW: + 56 (42) [38] GW [38]56 (42) - ANTARES : High hrs import capacity capacity import of nationalreports Max simultaneous Max 3) Coal Phase out Phase Coal 3) CWE4 4) Low Capacity for Capacity Low 4) 4,5 (6.5) GW in 2017 2017 in GW (6.5) 4,5 hydro prod; availability prod; hydro 2) (2027). Sensitivities: up up Sensitivities: (2027). GRID Focus Focus on Belgium, to 8,5 GW 2027, isolated isolated 2027, GW 8,5 to PV schedules, daily temp. daily PV schedules, in2016 (2020) [2025] Coal records, monthly column of column monthly records, parameters of thermal park thermal of parameters for ELIA ELIA (40y) (40y) Data from Data from 1) Nuclear TRACTEBEL Advisory Advisory TRACTEBELand Advanced Analytics e PECD e Climate - projects : Capacity 2017 Entso excluded for2020 77GW (53)[38] TSOs : MAF or policy reasons policy or 47 (37) [29] GW in 47GW (37)[29] ANTARES, ANTARES, Bid, GRARE, Plexos GRARE, Plexos at risk of being not being ofrisk at : Europe Europe + Turkey available for economic economic for available Mothballing with with 2020 (2025)[2030] Development Development line in Database 34 historicyears: Coal Climate conditionsbased on Nuclear e PECD e Climate - projects 2018 ~23 GW ~23 Entso 78 (59) GW May May 2019 43 (33)GW : : TSOs MAF PowrSym case scenario case import andimport export max simultaneous max in2020 (2025) Europe Europe + Turkey capacity capacity countryper ANTARES, ANTARES, Bid, Scenario: GRARE, Plexos, GRARE, Plexos, Coal Data by TSOs are theTSOs Data by with with Development Development line in Nuclear Low Carbon Sensitivity Sensitivity Carbon Low Flow Flow based Approach Database 34 historicyears: removed from the 2025 base 2025 thefrom removed Climate conditionsbased on
Scope
Countries Countries & Geo Interconnections Interconnections Contribution Contribution of foreign capacity Meteorological Meteorological Uncertainty Capacity Capacity CWE4in Current Current Installed Sensitivities Sensitivities Scenarios Model Model
effective use of transmission capacity peak. at transmission use capacity of effective All studies consider interconnected systems, but there is little information on information is little there but systems, interconnected consider studies All INTERNAL 20 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics May 2019May
Detailed view on exchanges at scarcity at exchanges view on Detailed developments Recent Recent studies on power system adequacy system power on studies Recent assumptions Study on adequacy View
• • • • • Agenda INTERNAL 21 Output border flows border - Marketoutcome Hourly generation mix generationHourly Cross Hourly pricespower Hourly capthe reachingevents,prices Scarcity • • • • 2 Supply interaction Supply – MarketRepresentation Short term dispatch according to meritorderto according termdispatchShort in inflows water uncertaintyfor Accounting substantialwith for countries(important demandand PV wind, differentand hydro) plantpower thermal randomconditions, outages granularityHourly approach)(NTC EU countries14of Coupling Competitive DemandCompetitive Short term stochastic dispatch modeldispatchstochasticShort term • • • • 1 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics specific - out - May 2019May Input specific fuel and CO2 pricesCO2 and fuel specific - Technical and scenario and Technical
No endogenous management on existing managementNo endogenous assets based on technical lifetimetechnicalon based investmentNo endogenous Policy driven capacity: RES development,capacity:drivenPolicy phasenuclearandcoal (GTs CCGTs andGas capacityExisting new capacity new thermalcapacity,net each plant:For efficiency Scenario Current power plant list, includinglist, plantCurrentpower and mothballingclosures,on announcements Hourly profiles in line with historic data historiclinewith profilesin Hourly to prices sensitivenotFixed, possibleSomeDSM Yearly demand in line with the scenario thelinewith in demand Yearly framework
• Asset ManagementAsset • • • • • Supply • • • • Demand • Modelling approach Modelling INTERNAL 22 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics
May 2019May
the Netherlands, the study considers the interaction of 14 countries. 14 of interaction the considers study the Netherlands, the Geographical Scope: although focusing on Belgium, France, Germany and and Germany France, Belgium, on focusing although Scope: Geographical INTERNAL 23 RES CCGTs & GTs Ampère – Nuclear Nuclear according to RTE Scenario Biomass Biomass 3GW Coal 2.93 2.93 Coal GW in 2018 & phased out by 2022 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics Best View Best View May 2018 Biomass 2GW
GW
May 2019May Thermal and RES Development Development RES and Thermal Existing INTERNAL 24 RES CCGTs & GTs Hydro from 0.11 GW in in 0.11Hydro GW from in 203020180.13 GW to Nuclear Nuclear Phase Out as of 2025 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics Best View Best View May 2018
GW
May 2019May Thermal and RES Development RES and Thermal Existing INTERNAL 25 RES CCGTs & GTs are are mostly in line Hydro from Hydro from 4.13 to 4.45 GW Coal Lignite and with the Scenario the C in Netzentwicklungspläne Nuclear Nuclear Phase Out by 2022 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics Best View Best View May 2018
GW
May 2019May Thermal and RES Development RES and Thermal Existing INTERNAL 26 RES CCGTs & GTs Biomass Biomass from 0.7 to 0.8 GW Coal Phase Phase Coal Out as the end of 2029 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics Best View Best View May 2018 Nuclear constant at 0.5 GW
GW
May 2019May Thermal and RES Development RES and Thermal Existing INTERNAL 27 (2030) (2030) ~+4GW ~+11GW To DE in 2018 in DE To 5000 (7500) 0 (1000) 1600 (2600) 2865 (2865) 3000 (4800) 0 (1400) 1500 (3000) 610 (610) 4000 (5500) 4250 (5000) To BE in 2018 in BE To 3300 (4300) 0 (1000) 0 (1000) 2400 (3400) (2030) (2030) (3286) ~+14GW ~+5GW From DE in 2018 in DE From 2100 (7500) 0 (1000) 1000 (2000) 2600 (2600) 3000 (4800) 0 (1400) 1500 (3000) 600 (600) 2000 4250 (5000) From BE in 2018 in BE From 1800 (2800) 0 (1000) 0 (1000) 1400 (3400) Republic Britain Country Austria Belgium Czech Denmark France Norway Poland Sweden Switzerland NetherlandsThe Country France Germany Great NetherlandsThe Germany Belgium Average net transfer capacity [MW] capacitytransfernet Average (2030) (2030) in 2018 in ~+4GW ~+12GW To NL To 1400 (3400) 0 (700) 4250 (5000) 1000 (1000) 700 (1400) To FR in 2018 in FR To 1800 (2800) 3000 (4800) 2000 (5400) 1020 (1900) 2800 (8000) 1400 (1500) TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics (2030) (2030) (1400) ~+3GW ~+13GW 1000 (1000) 700 From NL in 2018 in NLFrom 2400 (3400) 0 (700) 4250 (5000) 2800 (8000) 3200 (3700) From FR in 2018 in FRFrom 3300 (4300) 3000 (4800) 2000 (5400) 2500 (3453) Britain May 2019May Great BritainGreat Norway Country Belgium Denmark Germany Spain Switzerland Country Belgium Germany Great (North)Italy
France The Netherlands The European power markets are getting increasingly interconnected. increasingly getting are markets power European INTERNAL 28 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics May 2019May
Detailed view on exchanges at scarcity at exchanges view on Detailed developments Recent Recent studies on power system adequacy system power on studies Recent assumptions Study on adequacy View
• • • • • Agenda INTERNAL 29 B MW Demand →B - A Imp. Exports - ENS B D Country B: Net importer of capacity of importerB: Net Country Country B has not enough reliable capacity to capacity reliable enough not has B Country Some A. country from imports It load. peak meet curtailed. be to has load €/MWh →B - MW A Example where transmission capacity constraining is not capacity transmissionwhere Example TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics Exports + A Exp. D A Demand May 2019May Country A: Net provider of capacity of provider A: Net Country Country A has excess capacity. It exports to exports It capacity. excess has A Country well. as load curtail to would have it until B country
€/MWh
Price capPrice
highly interconnected markets. interconnected highly Definition of scarcity moments: there are net providers and net importers in importers net and providers net are there moments: scarcity of Definition INTERNAL 30 56 95 96 144 NL 2025 - INCENTIVES 93 94 54 140 FR CASE WITHOUT FURTHER WITHOUT CASE 258 DE 100 100 100 Winter 2024 58 98 99 149 BE FR NL BE DE 71 96 54 90 NL 2024 - 70 90 93 54 FR 130 DE 100 100 100 Winter 2023 78 60 99 98 BE NL FR BE DE 23 91 77 93 NL 2023 - 24 94 93 80 FR 30 DE 100 100 100 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics Winter 2022 25 99 85 100 BE % of the time at scarcity that another that of another too% at the scarcitycountry scarcityexperiences time LOLE LOLE (hours) Legend FR NL BE DE 88 88 88 3.4 NL 2022 - 98 96 95 3.7 May 2019May FR 98 99 3.8 DE 100 Winter 2021 99 98 3.8 100 BE
FR NL BE DE
Reference
All countries tend to experience scarcity simultaneously. Germany Germany simultaneously. scarcity experience to tend countries All experiences more scarcity and decouples from the other countries other the from decouples and scarcity more experiences INTERNAL 31 slide next on Explanations INCENTIVES CASE WITHOUT FURTHER WITHOUT CASE during during 2025 - net exporters exporters during during is a a is 2024 net are Belgium importer in events scarcity Belgium 2024 - Netherlands in the events country scarcity 2023 4 5 2023 - 2022 3 : 2022 - during during 2021 position is not so clear so is not position importer net TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics France scenarios across highly volatility is a a is scarcity events in the events country scarcity 2021 - Germany 2020
average 2019May 2020 - P5 P95 2019 P75 P50 P25 1
2
peak capacity importers at
Exchange balances in scarcity moments: exchange of capacity is high. is high. capacity of exchange moments: scarcity in balances Exchange There are net providers and net importers of capacity. of importers net and providers net are There of of Net providers Net providers Net Net INTERNAL 32 , 22, only a few hours are concerned. are hours few a only 22, - TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics out by end of 2022 and coal closures. Belgium is also a net importer in almost all all situations. almost in importer net a also is Belgium closures. coal and 2022 of end by out - May 2019May
France is in an intermediate position. It can benefit from excess capacity in Spain (not shown on the graph), but capacity is capacity but graph), the on shown (not Spain in capacity excess from benefit can It position. intermediate an in is France Germany. and Belgium to leakingalso the nuclear phase nuclear the neighboring the to capacity ofproviders net are They capacity. generation in abundant relatively are Netherlands The the in curtailed be to would have demand where moment the to up shared is capacity Generation stress. system in countries too. Netherlands approach. is balance demand/supply tight the when i.e. stress, system during balance exchange net the of distribution the consider We 2021 winter Until cap. the reaching prices power toleading tight, are reasons Main exports. it than more imports It stress. system in importer net a always is Germany conditions, the Whatever The state of the system can be very different for a given installed generation capacity. Because of meteorological conditions meteorological of Because capacity. generation installed given a for different very be can system the of state The power thermal Also, vary. levels demand power as well as plants hydro foravailability water generation,PV wind and probabilistic a thus requires issues adequacy Studying reasons. unforeseen forunavailable be can plants generation
5 4 2 3 1 not and generation Hence, appendix. in slides See saturated. not oftenis capacity interconnection that findwe general, In resource. scarce the be to out turns capacity transmission
Explanatory notes Explanatory Exchange balances in scarcity moments scarcity in balances Exchange INTERNAL 33 SE BE DK NO CH CZ FR network PL NL AT DE expected imports balance during scarcity hours scarcity during balance imports expected DE interconnected an an TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics reflect 2023 -
May 2019May
Winter 2022Winter Interconnection usage in DE Scarcity Hours DE Scarcity usagein Interconnection Countries’ balances Countries’ INTERNAL 34 TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics May 2019May
Detailed view on exchanges at scarcity at exchanges view on Detailed developments Recent Recent studies on power system adequacy system power on studies Recent assumptions Study on adequacy View
• • • • • Agenda INTERNAL 35 would would happen no no investment 2026 - Winter 2025 Winter Results Results for the case if 2025 - Winter 2024 Winter 2024 - scarcity events in Belgium in events scarcity Winter 2023 Winter TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics NTC Max importing capacity 2023 -
NTC Max exporting capacity
May 2019May Winter 2022 Winter CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT Exchange balances during during balances Exchange INTERNAL 36 would would happen no no investment 2026 - Winter 2025 Winter Results Results for the case if 2025 - Winter 2024 Winter 2024 - scarcity events in Germany in events scarcity Winter 2023 Winter TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2023 -
May 2019May Winter 2022 Winter CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT Exchange balances during during balances Exchange INTERNAL 37 would would happen no no investment 2026 - Winter 2025 Winter Results Results for the case if 2025 - Winter 2024 Winter 2024 - scarcity events in France in events scarcity Winter 2023 Winter TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2023 -
May 2019May Winter 2022 Winter CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT Exchange balances during during balances Exchange INTERNAL 38 would would happen no no investment 2026 - Winter 2025 Winter Results Results for the case if 2025 - Winter 2024 Winter 2024 - scarcity events in the Netherlands the in events scarcity Winter 2023 Winter TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2023 -
May 2019May Winter 2022 Winter CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT Exchange balances during during balances Exchange INTERNAL 39 would would happen no no investment 2023 Results Results for the case if - Winter 2022Winter during Scarcity Hours in Germany in Hours Scarcity during TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2022 - To Winter 2021Winter May 2019May
CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT From Average interconnection usage interconnection Average INTERNAL 40 would would happen no no investment 2025 Results Results for the case if - Winter 2024Winter during Scarcity Hours in Germany in Hours Scarcity during TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2024 - To Winter 2023Winter May 2019May
CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT From Average interconnection usage interconnection Average INTERNAL 41 would would happen no no investment 2023 Results Results for the case if - Winter 2022Winter during Scarcity Hours in Belgium in Hours Scarcity during TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2022 - To Winter 2021Winter May 2019May
CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT From Average interconnection usage interconnection Average INTERNAL 42 would would happen no no investment 2025 Results Results for the case if - Winter 2024Winter during Scarcity Hours in Belgium in Hours Scarcity during TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2024 - To Winter 2023Winter May 2019May
CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT From Average interconnection usage interconnection Average INTERNAL 43 would would happen no no investment 2023 Results Results for the case if - Winter 2022Winter during Scarcity Hours in France in Hours Scarcity during TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2022 - To Winter 2021Winter May 2019May
CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT From Average interconnection usage interconnection Average INTERNAL 44 would would happen no no investment 2025 Results Results for the case if - Winter 2024Winter during Scarcity Hours in France in Hours Scarcity during TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2024 - To Winter 2023Winter May 2019May
CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT From Average interconnection usage interconnection Average INTERNAL 45 would would happen no no investment 2023 Results Results for the case if - Winter 2022Winter during Scarcity Hours in NL in Hours Scarcity during TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2022 - To Winter 2021Winter May 2019May
CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT From Average interconnection usage interconnection Average INTERNAL 46 would would happen no no investment 2025 Results Results for the case if - Winter 2024Winter during Scarcity Hours in NL in Hours Scarcity during TRACTEBEL AdvisoryTRACTEBEL Advanced and Analytics 2024 - To Winter 2023Winter May 2019May
CASE WITHOUT FURTHER INCENTIVES FURTHER CASE WITHOUT From Average interconnection usage interconnection Average INTERNAL 47 only - Brownfield CCGT [GW] Brownfield could be build on existing CCGT plants. closed coal or of could build existing sites be on As a cheaper alternative alternative As a cheaper greenfield development, to new CCGTs X intensive X intensive decisions (Brownfield CCGT CCGT will LT extension GT reconversion) >> happen the necessary CAPEX. the spikes price captured through rent can be Scarcity an energy in APE ast cheap provider peak cheap provider capacity. of Reconversion CCGT to GT [GW] CCGT to Reconversion Instead of closing closing as a a CCGT, Instead of one keeps the GT TRACTEBEL Advisory Advisory TRACTEBELand Advanced Analytics
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May May 2019
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