Preference for the NDP Leadership

Federal politics in Quebec

For Publication August 25, 2017 Methodology

Online survey This study was conducted online across all Online Survey conducted with Canadian regions with 1,002 Canadians who are Survey respondents were selected randomly from eligible to vote in the province of Québec, Canadian LegerWeb’s Internet panel, which includes between August 21 and August 24, 2017. citizens across 400,000 Canadian households, and according to a stratification process applied to invitation lists, all regions of Weighting and Margin of Error which ensures optimal respondent the province of representativeness. Panelists were recruited Québec. Final survey data were weighted based on the 2011 census according to age, gender, mother randomly from Leger’s telephone surveys. Several tongue, region, and level of education in order to quality control measures were implemented to guarantee a representative sample of the ensure that Leger’s surveys with Internet panelists Canadian population. are representative and reliable. Leger has obtained Gold Seal Certification from the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, For comparative purposes, a random sample of the highest reliability rating conferred by the 1,002 would yield a margin of error of +/- 3%, 19 association. times out of 20.

Federal Voting Intentions in Quebec

Q1A-Q1B. If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? If the respondent did not have an opinion, the following question was asked : Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote?

Before After Non Francophones May 2017 distribution distribution francophones Weighted n= 1 003 830 631 199 283 Unweighted n= 1 006 855 649 206 348 ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of 36% 43% 37% 65% 49% Canada ...Thomas Mulcair's New 16% 19% 23% 9% 18% Democratic Party of Canada ...Martine Ouellet's Bloc Québécois 13% 16% 19% 5% 19% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative 12% 15% 15% 14% 8%* Party of Canada ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% Canada ...for another party 1% 2% 2% 1% 0%

I would not vote 4% - - - -

I would cancel my vote 4% - - - -

I don't know 7% - - - -

I prefer not to answer 3% - - - -

*In May 2017, the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada was Rona Ambrose 4 Federal Voting Intentions in Quebec (Cont’d)

After Elsewhere in MTL CMA QC CMA distribution Quebec Weighted n= 830 446 86 299 Unweighted n= 855 359 262 234 ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of 43% 49% 34% 39% Canada ...Thomas Mulcair's New 19% 19% 14% 22% Democratic Party of Canada ...Martine Ouellet's Bloc Québécois 16% 15% 15% 16% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative 15% 9% 30% 19% Party of Canada ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of 6% 6% 5% 5% Canada ...for another party 2% 2% 2% 0%

5 Satisfaction with the Canadian Government

CP2. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the Canadian government led by Justin Trudeau?

Non Elsewhere TOTAL Franco MTL CMA QC CMA franco in Quebec Weighted n= 1 003 786 216 499 102 402 Unweighted n= 1 006 781 225 400 303 303 NET SATISFIED 54% 50% 69% 60% 43% 49%

Very satisfied 10% 8% 16% 11% 10% 8%

Somewhat satisfied 44% 41% 53% 49% 33% 41%

NET DISSATISFIED 40% 43% 27% 35% 51% 43%

Somewhat dissatisfied 23% 25% 14% 21% 23% 25%

Very dissatisfied 17% 18% 13% 14% 28% 18%

I don’t know 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5%

I prefer not to answer 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% 3%

6 Interest in the NDP leadership race

CP3. Are you interested or not in the NDP (New Democratic Party of Canada) leadership race to replace Thomas Mulcair?

Non Elsewhere TOTAL Franco MTL CMA QC CMA franco in Quebec Weighted n= 1 003 786 216 499 102 402 Unweighted n= 1 006 781 225 400 303 303 NET INTERESTED 25% 20% 46% 35% 14% 16%

Very interested 3% 2% 8% 5% 3% 2%

Somewhat interested 22% 18% 37% 30% 11% 15%

NET NOT INTERESTED 68% 75% 43% 59% 78% 77%

Not particularly interested 38% 41% 27% 33% 44% 42%

Not at all interested 30% 34% 16% 26% 34% 34%

I don’t know 6% 4% 11% 5% 7% 5%

I prefer not to answer 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2%

7 Preference for the NDP Leadership

CP4. There are four official candidates In the NDP leadership race. Which of the candidates would you prefer as the next NDP leader?

Non Elsewhere TOTAL Franco MTL CMA QC CMA franco in Quebec Weighted n= 1 003 786 216 499 102 402 Unweighted n= 1 006 781 225 400 303 303 Guy Caron 10% 12% 6% 10% 9% 11%

Jagmeet Singh 4% 3% 8% 5% 3% 2%

Charlie Angus 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 4%

Niki Ashton 2% 1% 6% 4% 1% 1%

None of the candidates 22% 23% 19% 20% 27% 24%

I don't know 58% 58% 58% 57% 58% 58%

8 Federal Voting Intentions in Quebec by NDP candidate

CP5. If the NDP (New Democratic Party of Canada) was led by CANDIDATE, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...?

Charlie Niki Jagmeet TOTAL Guy Caron Angus Ashton Singh Weighted n= 830 629 651 646 649 Unweighted n= 855 660 676 671 673 ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party 43% 47% 46% 46% 47% of Canada ...(CANDIDATE) New Democratic 19% 13% 11% 16% 11% Party of Canada ...Martine Ouellet's Bloc 16% 17% 18% 16% 18% Québécois ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Party of Canada ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% Canada ...for another party 2% 2% 3% 1% 3%

9 Impact of the Turban on the Voting Intentions

CP6. One candidate running for the leadership of the NDP, Mr. Jagmeet Singh, is a Sikh and wears a turban. Would it encourage or discourage you from supporting him, or would it have no impact on your support of him in the next elections?

Non Elsewhere TOTAL Franco MTL CMA QC CMA franco in Quebec Weighted n= 1003 786 216 499 102 402 Unweighted n= 1006 781 225 400 303 303 It would encourage me to vote 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 1% for him It would discourage me from 28% 32% 13% 21% 37% 34% voting for him It would not affect my vote 55% 50% 70% 60% 50% 49%

I don’t know 11% 11% 12% 11% 10% 11%

I prefer not to answer 5% 5% 2% 5% 2% 5%

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