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Arts Stability and Growth Amid Redevelopment in US Shrinking Cities' Downtowns

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Arts Stability and Growth Amid Redevelopment in US Shrinking Cities' Downtowns Arts Stability and Growth amid Redevelopment in U.S. Shrinking Cities’ Downtowns: A Case Study Joanna Ganning, PhD Assistant Professor, Department of City & Metropolitan Planning Executive Director, Metropolitan Research Center University of Utah [email protected] 801-587-8129 (working paper) This project was supported in part or in whole by an award from the Research: Art Works program at the National Endowment for the Arts: Grant# 13-3800-7002. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the Office of Research & Analysis or the National Endowment for the Arts. The NEA does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information included in this report and is not responsible for any consequence of its use. Arts Stability and Growth amid Redevelopment in U.S. Shrinking Cities’ Downtowns: A Case Study Keywords: arts, downtowns, redevelopment, shrinking cities Abstract: While the relationship of arts businesses and redevelopment has been studied extensively in world-class cities, it remains understudied in weaker market cities. With tight municipal budgets, shrinking cities cannot afford not to understand both the benefits of the arts for downtown redevelopment, and the impact of redevelopment on the arts. Using block-level data for a United States shrinking city’s downtown (St. Louis), this paper finds that the arts have neither anchored redevelopment nor been driven out of the downtown by redevelopment. The latter finding signals an opportunity for shrinking cities to harness the benefits of the arts in downtown redevelopment. Introduction The idea that arts and artists play a critical role in transforming blighted neighborhoods into hip enclaves is well established in the literature (e.g., Currid, 2009; Lloyd, 2002). Reduced to its simplest, artists seek out low-rent areas, bringing with them a creative vibrancy and authenticity that attracts new businesses and residents. While this process is well understood for globally recognized art capitals like New York City, the role of the arts in the redevelopment of shrinking, weak market cities is less understood. The fundamental differences in character between world-class cities like New York City and shrinking cities like St. Louis dictate a different intersection of arts and downtown 10 redevelopment. As Molotch and Treskon (2009) showed in New York, after helping to make SoHo attractive to investors, artists and arts-based businesses found themselves priced out, and consequently relocated to Chelsea, a lower-rent neighborhood (this process is called the “SoHo effect”). However, it is unclear whether the arts attract redevelopment in a weak market, or whether redevelopment is driven by public policy and national trends. It is also unclear whether redevelopment pressures price the arts out of downtowns in a weak market context, and if so, at what magnitude of redevelopment? Urban planning and policy intervenes in an effort to protect and promote the arts, but with unknown effectiveness (Currid, 2009, p. 368). Shrinking cities often operate with highly constrained budgets; reducing the uncertainty in planning for the arts and downtown redevelopment can help to make better use of precious resources. With a preference for cities (Markusen and Schrock, 2006), artists are in the heart of modern urban revitalization; the back-to-the-city movement is underway and focusing on central cities and downtowns (Jaffe, 2011). In St. Louis (the case study city for this paper), the city as a whole lost 8.3% of its population between 2000 and 2010, but the downtown population grew by 143% (US Census Bureau, Census 2000 and Census 2010, using the City’s definition of the Downtown and Downtown West neighborhoods). Several factors that make downtowns like St. Louis’ ripe for redevelopment, such as historic architecture (Birch, 2002; Filion, Hoernig, Bunting & Sands 2004) and affordability, are also attractive to artists (Markusen & Schrock, 2006). The work of Molotch and Treskon (2009) suggests the two research questions taken up in this paper. First, do the arts serve as an anchor industry for redevelopment in shrinking cities’ downtowns? Second, if shrinking cities’ downtowns are enjoying an era of redevelopment and growth, will development pressure overwhelm the place stickiness (Markusen, 1996) of the 11 downtown arts? In other words, does the SoHo effect occur in weak market cities? Specifically, does redevelopment exert undue pressure on the commercial element of the arts, by pushing arts- based businesses out of the downtown? The SoHo effect involves both the residential and commercial aspects of the arts community (see Molotch and Treskon for a discussion of the threat of encroaching retail and other impacts on gallery space). The residential movement of artists falls beyond the scope of this paper, largely due to data constraints. On its face, the rising rents of downtown (discussed further below) suggest that arts-based businesses requiring low overhead might struggle in an environment of rapid redevelopment. However, this hypothesis may be ill-suited to shrinking cities, which often suffer from excess, vacant downtown real estate to which artists and their businesses could move. In this case, downtowns like St. Louis’ might provide an ideal scenario for arts-based employment growth; a balance can be struck between proximity to density and prosperity while also maintaining affordable rents. This paper analyzes the relationship between the arts and redevelopment in shrinking cities by investigating the stability and growth of arts businesses and employment in downtown St. Louis between 2000 and 2010. St. Louis was chosen as the case study for several reasons. First, St. Louis offered unparalleled data access through proprietary data sets to which I had license to use for research, and through professional networks, which granted me access to other non-public data. Second, St. Louis lost a larger percentage of its population between 1950 and 2010 than nearly any other city in the U.S.1, making it in some ways the poster child for shrinking cities, though it bears noting that findings are not necessarily generalizable and should be ground tested in other settings. Background 1 Of the ten largest cities in the U.S. in 1950, St. Louis lost the largest share of its population by 2010. Among a larger pool of cities (as presented), only Youngstown, Ohio outranks St. Louis for percentage population loss between 1950 and 2007. 12 Shrinking Cities As shrinking cities represent a young research area within planning, a time-tested definition of terms is still evolving. Generally, a shrinking city is a city that is losing population. Beyond that generality, the definition becomes less clear. One author suggests that in the U.S. population decline tends to occur in the central city, while in the European Union (E.U.) decline is seen more at the regional scale (Pallagst, 2009, p. 81-82). However, eight of the ten largest shrinking cities in the U.S. are situated in shrinking regions (all but St. Louis and Cincinnati). Similarly, the universe of shrinking cities is unclear. In his 2010 Brookings Institute report, Mallach studies 21 “major shrinking cities” from 1950 through 2007 and states that “The total universe of distressed older cities, including satellite industrial cities like Camden, New Jersey or East St. Louis, Illinois, and distressed inner-ring suburbs, like East Cleveland, numbers well over 100” (2010, 8). On the other hand, Beauregard (2009) counts 41 declining cities for the period 1950 through 1980, and 18 for the period 1980-2000. Some evidence also shows that, though the shrinking cities research agenda has gained momentum among U.S. scholars, the problem is more pervasive in Europe. Thompson (2012) reports that, when measuring according to percent change in gross domestic product (GDP) during 2011-2012, 19 of the 20 slowest-growing cities in the world were in the E.U. Beyond definitional problems, issues of measurement challenge research on shrinking cities as well. As Dewar and Thomas write, “No consistent data exist to describe the extent and location of vacant land and vacant structures that have resulted from loss of population, households, and businesses in these and other cities. No data allow for a consistent description of property abandonment across numerous cities” (2013, p. 2). 13 In short, the shrinking cities research agenda continues to evolve in terms of definitions and databases, and understandings of demographic and economic mechanisms at play and potential planning responses. The Arts and Shrinking Cities The arts have been studied most often in places like New York or Chicago, rather than in shrinking cities, and the hypotheses about the intersection of the demographic and economic forces at play in shrinking cities and the needs and benefits of the arts remain under-researched. For instance, shrinking cities generally have weak markets, which may discourage the development or proliferation of artists’ communities, yet the still-large (though declining) populations of large shrinking cities and the low rents could create an ideal growth scenario for artists’ communities. There is also at least anecdotal evidence of strong arts communities in some shrinking cities (e.g. Barnett, 2012; Herscher, 2013). However, strength in artists’ communities may be threatened by the politically-driven focus on investments in the downtowns of shrinking cities if that redevelopment induces the SoHo effect. There is no consistent, spatially-disaggregated dataset covering public and private investments in downtowns, and thus there is no way to systematically study the relationship between downtown redevelopment and the arts across shrinking cities. The research presented here was possible by the acquisition of multiple local proprietary data sets, as described in the Data and Methodology section. There is also no national database on either artist employment or presence of arts-based businesses at any spatially disaggregated scale. Markusen and Schrock (2006) detail many of the measurement issues associated with studying the arts.
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