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South East Route Digital Train Control Upgrade (SOBC)

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South East Route Digital Train Control Upgrade (SOBC) Subject to assurance South East Route Digital Train Control Upgrade (SOBC) 28 April 2017 South East Route Digital Train Control Upgrade – Strategic Outline Business Case Version 1.0 Page 1 of 106 Issued: 28 April 2017 00SOBC-NWR-REP-MPM-000027 Subject to assurance South East Route Digital Train Control Upgrade (SOBC) Executive Summary Conclusions and recommendations The case for delivering Traffic Management and Connected Driver Advisory System (C- DAS) to improve performance is very strong across the whole Sussex and Kent areas of the route. As a result, it is recommended that these technologies are developed to Outline Business Case (OBC); Traffic Management options should be developed to include decision support tools which are central to providing the full benefits (Connected Driver Advisory Systems (C-DAS), Incident Management, interface with train operators Stock and Crew systems, interface to Customer Information Systems). The South Eastern refranchising offers an opportunity in this area; The lessons learnt and evidence of benefits from the schemes currently deploying traffic management at Romford, Thameslink and Cardiff should be incorporated; European Train Control System (ETCS) does not appear to offer value for money in Control Period 6. This is because the immediate capacity requirements are addressed by current programmes. However, ETCS should be considered as part of the wider strategy of the South East Route. In particular, the case to extend the ETCS and ATO from the Thameslink core onto the Sydenham Corridor to support TfL aspirations for a 24tph East London Line service; The interfaces of the scope of this SOBC with the Brighton Main Line (BML) SOBC and the East London Line (ELL) SOBC need to be integrated with Traffic Management proposals at the OBC stage of development; To develop the South East Route Digital Programme towards OBC will require £5 million. This does not represent a full commitment to deployment, but rather the start of the next stage of development; Following the completion of the SOBC for the South East Route, the digital candidate projects across the network will be reviewed together to understand linkages and priorities. Elements of this business case may also be prioritised for earlier delivery (and therefore development) tranches. Route context The South East Route is a vital component of the local and national economy: o Over 400 million passenger journeys per annum are made on the South East Route, more than any other Network Rail route1; o 250,000 people arrive into London Bridge, Victoria and Blackfriars in the three hour peak every morning via the South East Route2; o A train arrives into London Bridge from the South East Route at a rate of over one per 1 ORR financial information (2014/15) 2 DfT table RAI0213 (2015) Version 1.0 Page 3 of 106 Issued: 28 April 2017 00SOBC-NWR-REP-MPM-000027 Subject to assurance South East Route Digital Train Control Upgrade (SOBC) minute in the three hour peak3; o The route provides an artery for freight traffic to and from the Channel Tunnel and for construction materials to terminals across the Route. Problem and Opportunity Statement The South East Route is currently facing a significant performance challenge: o The South East Route currently experiences the highest number of delay minutes of any route on the network – in part from the reactionary delays caused by the flat junctions in the region; o The main operator on the South East Route – Govia Thameslink Railway – has a Passenger Performance Measure (PPM) Moving Annual Average (MMA)of 74.6% for Q3 of 2016, compared to the average of 84.5% across all London and South East Operators. There are a number of capacity/performance programmes already planned for the South East Route, including Thameslink. However, these schemes are not capable of fully addressing the long term performance challenges on the South East Route due to: o Disruption that will be experienced during the remodelling of Croydon Junction; o Thameslink 2018 timetable placing additional pressure on the route, posing an additional performance risk; o Enhanced performance challenges that will be faced as the number of services is increased to meet demand over the next 30 years. Options Three options have been identified to address these problems: o Traffic Management only; o Traffic Management and ETCS between London Bridge and East Croydon; o Traffic Management and ETCS between London Bridge and Brighton. Economic Analysis Delivery of Traffic Management and C-DAS on the South East Route offers very high value for money: o Net Present Value of c. £250 million4; o Financially Positive, meaning that the costs are fully covered by the revenue generated by the option. 3 DfT table RAI0213 (2015 4 Option 1 in Economic Case (2010 prices and values) Version 1.0 Page 4 of 106 Issued: 28 April 2017 00SOBC-NWR-REP-MPM-000027 Subject to assurance South East Route Digital Train Control Upgrade (SOBC) These benefits are resilient to uncertainties around cost and benefits: o A high Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of c.2 even when benefits are halved5; o A high BCR of c.2, even when costs are doubled6. Benefits of Traffic Management need to be tested in light of actual operating experience once Cardiff, Romford and Thameslink are commissioned. Extending ETCS Level 2 from London Bridge to Croydon or Brighton is not a financially viable option, as demonstrated by the cost assessment of Option 2 and Option 3. Commercial Case: There is high appetite for Digital Railway amongst the rail supply chain, and this has been formalised through Early Contractor Involvement. Close and collaborative work with the supply chain is essential to the success of the programme; The programme will explore all commercial delivery models to OBC, and will engage with the supply chain to deliver examples and recommendations at this stage. Financial Case: There are opportunities, which need to be explored at the next stage of development, to introduce new private finance sources into the rail industry, to bring down the overall financial requirement. Management Case A delivery model (“thin client”) has been identified for the route to adopt and progress with the support of the Digital Railway team. This model will manage risks going forward – in particular the development of Digital Railway applications. Areas highlighted for further development at the OBC stage: In the next stage of development the following have been highlighted to be investigated: o Test different scopes, in terms of both geography and capability; o Integrate with incident management and stock & crew proposals; o Customer information linkage should be explored. 5 Option 1 Sen 2 in Economic Case (2010 prices and values) 6 Option 1 Sen 3 in Economic Case (2010 prices and values) Version 1.0 Page 5 of 106 Issued: 28 April 2017 00SOBC-NWR-REP-MPM-000027 Subject to assurance South East Route Digital Train Control Upgrade (SOBC) 1. Strategic Case .............................................................................................................. 9 1.1 Business Strategy .............................................................................................................. 9 1.2 Drivers for Change............................................................................................................15 1.3 Stakeholder Engagement .................................................................................................16 1.4 Baseline ............................................................................................................................18 1.5 Business Need and Service Gaps – Problem and Opportunity Statement ........................20 1.6 Options .............................................................................................................................24 1.7 Option benefits .................................................................................................................27 1.8 Integration with other schemes on the South East Route ..................................................31 1.9 Key Assumptions ..............................................................................................................32 1.10 Risks ................................................................................................................................33 1.11 Strategic Case summary ..................................................................................................34 2. Economic Case........................................................................................................... 36 2.1 Purpose ............................................................................................................................36 2.2 Approach ..........................................................................................................................36 2.3 Appraisal Parameters .......................................................................................................37 2.4 Economic Options ............................................................................................................37 2.5 Assumptions .....................................................................................................................38 2.6 Economic Options Analysis ..............................................................................................42 2.7 Key risks and uncertainty ..................................................................................................43
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