10 Charts That Prove the Florida Keys are Still the Best Lodging Market in the World
August 4, 2020
1. Recession - Resistant Market
During the 2009 financial crisis, occupancy in the Keys increased by 3% while the rest of the U.S. declined 10%. RevPAR recovered approximately twice as quickly as the broader U.S. The Keys are positioned as a safer, lower- cost, easier-to-access substitute for the Caribbean, Bahamas, Central America, and crowded cruise ships, translating to a 6% RevPAR CAGR over the past 10 years and a 4% RevPAR CAGR over the past 30 years.
Florida Keys Historical Occupancy and RevPAR vs. US Florida Keys Historical Occupancy and RevPAR vs. US $250 90%
80%
$200 70%
60% $150 50%
40% $100 30%
$50 20%
10%
$0 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Florida Keys RevPAR US RevPAR Florida Keys Occupancy US Occupancy Source: STR
2. Expect Quick Recovery
The Florida Keys were shut down to non-residents until June 1, 2020. Upon reopening in June, the market was constrained to 50% supply for two weeks. Despite this, the Keys ran 54% occupancy at $254 ADR for the month, a 7.6% increase over June 2019 ADR.
FloridaFlorida Keys Keys Monthly Monthly PerformancePerformance 2020 2020
$400 100%
$300 75%
$200 50%
$100 25%
$0 0% Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 ADR RevPAR Occ Source: STR 3. Transient-Leisure Dominated Market
Demand in the Florida Keys is dominated by transient leisure travelers. In the last four years, group demand has never exceeded 10%, positioning the Florida Keys to be unaffected by the slow recovery of the group segment.
SegmentationSegmentation - Florida- Florida Keys, Keys, Upper Upper Upscale Upscale
100%
75%
50%
25%
0% 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Transient % Group Source: STR
4. Drive-To Market
In 2019, 74% of visitors to the Florida Keys arrived by car. Since the Keys reopened on June 1, 2020, overall traffic counts, in and out of the Florida Keys, have shown year-over-year growth when compared to same- day of the week in 2019. The last Saturday in June saw a 17% increase over 2019.
Traffic Counts - 2019 vs 2020 Tra c Counts - 2019 vs 2020
4.99% increase in 45,000 2020 vs 2019 1.98% increase in 2020 (Saturday) vs 2019 for 4th of July Weekend (Friday) 40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000 16.97% increase in 2020 vs 2019 (Saturday) 20,000
15,000 Tuesday
10,000
1-Jul 2-Jul 3-Jul 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul 7-Jul 8-Jul 9-Jul 15-Jun 16-Jun 17-Jun 18-Jun 19-Jun 20-Jun 21-Jun 22-Jun 23-Jun 24-Jun 25-Jun 26-Jun 27-Jun 28-Jun 29-Jun 30-Jun 10-Jul 11-Jul 12-Jul 13-Jul 14-Jul 15-Jul
2019 2020 Source: FDOT 5. Over 22 Million People Within A 5 Hour Drive
As more families and individuals opt for drive-to vacations in the coming months, the Florida Keys is positioned as an easily accessible, Caribbean-alternative destination within a 5-hour drive of over 22 million people. Major metropolitan populations and their driving distance are outlined below.
DISTANCE TO DRIVE TIME TO POPULATION KEY LARGO (MILES) KEY LARGO Miami 2,716,940 58 71 minutes Ft. Lauderdale 1,953,000 91 90 minutes West Palm Beach 1,497,000 133 127 minutes Naples 378,488 173 100 minutes Fort Myers 754,610 204 185 minutes Sarasota 821,573 278 240 minutes POPULATION 659,605 Orlando 2,572,962 294 252 minutes DISTANCE TO KEY LARGO Daytona 659,605 320 274 minutes Daytona Beach 320 Miles Tampa 3,142,663 327 253 minutes Total 14,496,841
More than 15 million Florida residents can access the Florida Keys by car in under 5 hours. 285 POPULATION MILES In a time when planning a vacation is nearly impossible, the Keys offer an easy and impromtu option for romance, sport, or family getaways. POPULATION Orlando 2,572,962 3,142,663 DISTANCE TO KEY LARGO DISTANCE TO KEY LARGO 294 Miles 327 Miles 235 MILES Tampa
180 POPULATION MILES 821,573 DISTANCE TO KEY LARGO 278 Miles Sarasota POPULATION 1,497,000 DISTANCE TO KEY LARGO POPULATION 133 Miles 754,610 West Palm Beach 285 MILES DISTANCE TO KEY LARGO Fort Myers 204 Miles POPULATION 1,953,000 DISTANCE TO KEY LARGO POPULATION Naples Fort Lauderdale 378,488 91 Miles DISTANCE TO KEY LARGO Miami 173 Miles POPULATION 110 MILES 2,716,940 60 MILES DISTANCE TO KEY LARGO 58 Miles
Key Largo
POPULATION 24,565 Key West DISTANCE TO KEY LARGO 88 Miles
Source: Google Maps 6. A Market Designed For Socially Distant Activities
The main drivers for tourism in the Florida Keys are the plethora of activities that can be enjoyed while maintaining social distancing. “Best in the world” fishing, diving, snorkeling, watersports, boating, swimming, animal/ecological encounters, outdoor dining, and hardcore relaxing have put the Keys on the map. In 2020 and beyond, these types of activities have never been more attractive and sought out by leisure travelers. Florida Keys Miami Beach Orlando
7. Low-Density Lodging Market
The Florida Keys have a significantly lower density compared to other high-leisure drive-to markets in 10% Florida. With 90%17% of Florida Key’s hotels having fewer than 150 rooms, the Keys represent a socially distant and far safer option for travelers looking to get away. Other popular tourist markets in Florida such as Miami 37% Beach and Orlando are denser with generally larger hotels making up nearly 20% and 40%, respectively. As the chart below of largest hotels in the Keys indicates, there are no “big box” hotels in the Keys. Further, land use density for hotels in the Keys is very limited, typically capped at 9-12 units per acre with a three- story height restriction and complex landscaping requirements, which has resulted in lower density hotels 90% spread out on relatively83% larger land parcels than other resort markets. Due 63%to these design constraints, we have found over the years that many guests in the Keys will naturally take the stairs rather than an elevator.
Smaller Hotels 150+ Room Hotels Smaller Hotels 150+ Room Hotels Smaller Hotels 150+ Room Hotels OrlandoOrlando FloridaFlorida Keys KeysFloridaFlorida Keys MiamiMiami BeachMiami BeachBeachMiami Beach OrlandoOrlando
10% 10% 10% 17% 17% 17% 37% 37% 37%
90% 90% 90% 83% 83% 83% 63% 63% 63%
Smaller SmallerHotels HotelsSmaller150+ Room Hotels150+ Hotels Room150+ Hotels Room HotelsSmaller SmallerHotels HotelsSmaller150+ Room Hotels150+ Hotels Room150+ Hotels Room HotelsSmaller SmallerHotels HotelsSmaller150+ Room Hotels150+ Hotels Room150+ Hotels Room Hotels Top 10 Largest Hotels In The Keys
NAME OF ESTABLISHMENT CITY ROOMS
Waldorf Astoria Casa Marina Resort Key West 311
Southernmost Beach Resort Key West 261
Ocean Pointe Resort Tavernier 240
Marriott Key West Beachside Hotel Key West 216
DoubleTree Resort Hotel Grand Key Key West Key West 216
Cheeca Lodge & Spa Islamorada 214
Hilton Key Largo Resort Key Largo 200
Knights Key Resort Marathon 199
Sheraton Hotel Suites Key West Key West 184
Source: STR and RCA 8. Nationally-Competitive Market
If ranked amongst the top 25 U.S. markets tracked by STR, the Florida Keys would be #1 in terms of ADR (2019: $277 versus NYC at $255) and #2 in RevPAR. It is entirely possible that the Florida Keys will surpass New York in the months and years to come.
RANK CITY 2019 2018 % CHANGE
1 New York $220.06 $227.94 -3.5% - Florida Keys $212.53 $206.18 3.1% 2 Oahu $202.62 $197.65 2.5% 3 San Francisco $205.99 $197.62 4.2% 4 Miami $149.19 $152.22 -2.0% 5 Boston $147.41 $150.83 -2.3% 6 Los Angeles $143.74 $143.41 0.2% 7 San Diego $127.95 $130.73 -2.1% 8 Anaheim $129.51 $125.76 3.0% 9 Seattle $118.86 $123.87 -4.0% 10 Washington D.C. $112.81 $111.46 1.2%
9. Impossible Barriers To Entry
Since 2009, the Florida Keys annual supply growth CAGR is 1.4%. As a protected ecological area, the Florida Keys remain an extremely difficult market to enter due to land use restrictions protecting the sensitive ecological areas from destruction and oversaturation by limiting future development and expansion. Hence, in accordance with Monroe County’s Rate of Growth Ordinance (“ROGO”), the Florida Keys expect significant organic growth in the near future but no large projects in the development pipeline. The opportunity to own a property in such a market is a rare occurrence under today’s circumstances. The uptick in supply in 2019 is mainly due to assets coming back online that were damaged and closed following Hurricane Irma in 2017.
SUPPLY % RANK SUPPLY (ROOMS) CHANGE
2009 -1.8% 3,148,768 2010 1.3% 3,188,183 2011 1.6% 3,237,645 2012 0.2% 3,243,598 2013 -2.8% 3,153,593 2014 -2.3% 3,080,349 2015 5.3% 3,244,098 2016 4.9% 3,403,649 2017 -2.4% 3,323,551 2018 -2.5% 3,239,314 2019 11.5% 3,611,835
Source: STR 10. Sales Comps
During this last cycle, the Florida Keys matured from a “mom and pop” investment market with mainly local and family owners to a true global investment target market. Today, household names in the hospitality investment world have invested across the Florida Keys at record-breaking prices. Furthermore, several of these properties were bought with substantial, costly renovations planned. Please contact us if you have any questions about any transaction noted below.
DATE PROPERTY NAME CITY UNITS PRICE ($) $/UNITS
Dec-18 Holiday Inn Express & Suites Marathon 159 38,000,000 238,994 Aug-18 Kimpton Inns Portfolio Key West 218 109,000,000 500,000 Jul-17 Oceans Edge Hotel & Marina Stock Island 175 175,000,000 1,000,000 Apr-16 Hilton Garden Inn Key West 147 51,600,000 351,020 Feb-16 Hilton Beach Resort Key Largo Key Largo 200 82,000,000 410,000 Nov-15 Hampton Inn Key West Key West 145 55,500,000 382,759 Jun-15 Sheraton Suites Key West 180 94,000,000 522,222 May-15 Fairfield Inn Key West Key West 133 50,600,000 380,451 Mar-15 Gates Hotel Key West Key West 100 39,300,000 393,000 Mar-15 The Marker Resort Key West Key West 96 96,183,333 1,001,910 Feb-15 Casa Marina and Beach Resorts Key West 461 475,000,000 1,030,369 Sep-14 Postcard Inn at Holiday Isle Islamorada 143 52,750,000 368,881 Sep-14 DoubleTree Grand Key Resort Key West 215 77,000,000 358,140 Aug-14 Inn at Key West Key West 105 47,500,000 452,381 May-14 Parrot Key Resort Key West 148 100,000,000 675,676 Nov-13 Hyatt Key West Resort & Spa Key West 118 76,000,000 644,068 Oct-13 Hawks Cay Resort Marathon 177 133,800,000 755,932 Aug-13 Southernmost Hotel Portfolio Key West 261 184,500,000 706,897 May-13 Pier House Resort & Caribbean Spa Key West 157 90,000,000 573,248 Jul-11 Cheeca Lodge & Spa Islamorada 117 101,250,000 865,385
Source: RCA and HWE