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1 HZS C2BRNE DIARY – January 2021 www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com 2 HZS C2BRNE DIARY – January 2021 HZS C2BRNE DIARY– 2021© January 2021 Website: www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com Editor-in-Chief BrigGEN (ret.) Ioannis Galatas MD, MSc, MC (Army) PhD cand Consultant in Allergy & Clinical Immunology Medical/Hospital CBRNE Planner & Instructor Senior Asymmetric Threats Analyst Manager, CBRN Knowledge Center @ International CBRNE Institute (BE) Senior CBRN Consultant @ HotZone Solutions Group (NL) Athens, Greece Contact e-mail: [email protected] Editorial Team ⚫ Bellanca Giada, MD, MSc (Italy) ⚫ Hopmeier Michael, BSc/MSc MechEngin (USA) ⚫ Kiourktsoglou George, BSc, Dipl, MSc, MBA, PhD (UK) ⚫ Photiou Steve, MD, MSc EmDisaster (Italy) ⚫ Tarlow Peter, PhD Sociol (USA) A publication of HotZone Solutions Group Prinsessegracht 6, 2514 AN, The Hague, The Netherlands T: +31 70 262 97 04, F: +31 (0) 87 784 68 26 E-mail: [email protected] DISCLAIMER: The HZS C2BRNE DIARY® (former CBRNE-Terrorism Newsletter), is a free online publication for the fellow civilian/military CBRNE First Responders worldwide. The Diary is a collection of papers/articles related to the stated thematology. Relevant sources/authors are included and all info provided herein is from open Internet sources. Opinions and comments from the Editor, the Editorial Team or the authors publishing in the Diary do not necessarily represent those of the HotZone Solutions Group (NL) or the International CBRNE Institute (BE). www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com 3 HZS C2BRNE DIARY – January 2021 www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com 4 HZS C2BRNE DIARY – January 2021 www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com 5 HZS C2BRNE DIARY – January 2021 Editorial Brig Gen (ret.) Ioannis Galatas, MD, MSc, MC (Army) Editor-in-Chief HZS C2BRNE Diary Dear Colleagues, New Year, Blank Page? effects and duration of effectiveness of vaccination. On top of that is the ever existing problem of politics. Who will make the Unfortunately, not! 2021 comes together with the ongoing vaccine first? Which vaccine protects more or for a bigger pandemic and the struggle to retrieve our lives and return to period of time and alike – stupid things as always. Whatever normal or as close as possible. The unexpected that all hoped is “Whestern” is good; whatever is Russian or Chinese is bad never to happen did happened and if one thinks about the – whether it is a missile, a computer, a vaccine or a car. And consequences it can be said that it could be much worse people have to follow this pattern even if it has to do with their regarding mortality – not that 1,9mil deaths are not much, but own health and survival. And of course there is the profit issue for a disease that is airborne and without a counter drug or that it seems that it is above everything in our developed vaccine the overall death toll is excusable. world. Sometimes it crosses my mind that this pandemic was What else comes to the same package? There is no a punishment for our ill behavior and the destruction of doubt that there is something that should be taken very mandatory values that there is no point to mention since they serously and that is the human behavior during a health would look like a Klingon language. emergency. Planners expected that people will cope with When we will return to normal? Most probably rules and restriction and that they would help public health around mid 2022. And how long it will take to reach the 2019 authorities to deal with the problem – together. This is what financial level? I cannot answer to this – not my field. I happened in the beginning of the crisis but during the following estimate around 2027. Do whatever it takes to survive and months this was turned in a struggle between the people and adjust to new norms. Unless something new happens. Equal their government. It was kind of the “resistance” observed or worse to what we experience now. They call it Pandemic X. during the WWII only that now the modern guerillas are the It could be something nuclear as well – yes we have enough next door citizens that are not fighting for their core values but nukes to lighten the universe with a spectacular blast. In for things that do not seem so important like holidays, parties, addition, keep in mind that in troubled times there are always drinks, personal beauty care and training. In parallel, both the those that would take advantage of the situation for their own people and their governments were not prepared (if this is the goals and endeavors. Turkey is a fine example: the vision of proper word) to deal with the financial catastrophe that escorts a modern Othoman Empire; the vision of an Islamic NATO a pandemic with its lockdowns or quarantines. The latter could equivalent; the aquirement of nuclear weapons via peaceful be a good excuse for a civic collaboration in the effort to uses of atomic energy; the revenge against European contain the problem but it was not. Minorities here and there resistance to the Muslim way of life are all constituents that triggered behaviors requiring restrictive measures to avoid can make an explosive recipe. Somebody has to do overspreading. This, together with the involvement of something about this but I am afraid that it would be Greece scientists (epidemiologists; infectious diseases specialists; that will do it – not because it is strong enough or favors an etc.) into politics, created an additional problem difficult to offensive policy but because usually there is somebody who solve. Vaccines were the ultimate hope for the global society sucrifices a hand in order to take the snake out of the hole. but when we manage to have them in an all-time record time And when you do that there are no friends or allies. It is just we now do not really believe on them and not even front-line you and your own two hands! Hope it will never happen. Hope health professional are very enthousiastic about them. It the snake will not would be unfair to say that it is only people who are underestimate the responsible to this. When something is happening under Greeks. extreme pressure it is for sure that certain things will not go by On the the book of perfection especially when comes to adverse other side of the www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com 6 HZS C2BRNE DIARY – January 2021 ocean, fellow Americans suffer their own Golgotha with their the route of the planet and a good opportunity to focus on presidential elections and democratic change of rulers. The important issues and values. Sometimes, people of my age myth was busted and the bubble was ruptored out loud. The tend to forget that there is continuity in life and that there are voting system became the Achilles tendon of the nation and it new generations that will follow and continue to follow no makes you wonder how come 331 million Americans cannot matter what we do to make this harder. I think we deserve to elect a suitable person for President. I have to read again the be remembered as those who fought a pandemic and won the study entitled “Why clevel people are not involved in politics”. the battles and the WWIII. This is where First Responders will Would 2021 be an interesting year after all? For sure play a crucial role and this is why preparedness is more it will not be a pleasant year. It is up to the people to change important than ever before. Be alert! Be safe! The Editor-in-Chief www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com 7 HZS C2BRNE DIARY – January 2021 Nicholas Christakis — Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live Source [video]: https://www.skeptic.com/science-salon/nicholas-christakis-apollos-arrow-profound-enduring-impact-of-coronavirus- on-the-way-we-live/ Apollo’s Arrow offers a riveting account of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic as it swept through American society in 2020, and of how the recovery will unfold in the coming years. Drawing on momentous (yet dimly remembered) historical epidemics, contemporary analyses, and cutting-edge research from a range of scientific disciplines, bestselling author, physician, sociologist, and public health expert Nicholas A. Christakis explores what it means to live in a time of plague — an experience that is paradoxically uncommon to the vast majority of humans who are alive, yet deeply fundamental to our species. Featuring new, provocative arguments and vivid examples ranging across medicine, history, sociology, epidemiology, data science, and genetics, Apollo’s Arrow envisions what happens when the great force of a deadly germ meets the enduring reality of our evolved social nature. Shermer and Christakis discuss: • the replication crisis in social science and medicine, • determining causality in science and medicine, • how we know smoking causes cancer and HIV causes AIDS, but vaccines do not cause autism and cell phones do not cause cancer, • randomized controlled trials and why they can’t be done to answer many medical questions, • natural experiments and the comparative method of testing hypotheses (e.g., comparing different countries differing responses to Covid-19), • the hindsight bias and the curse of knowledge in judging responses to pandemics after the fact, • looking back to January 2020, what should we have done? • comparing Covid-19 to the Black Death, the Spanish Flu, and other pandemics, • bacteria vs. viruses, coronaviruses and their effects, and why viruses are so much harder to treat than bacteria, • Bill Gates’ TED talk warning in 2015 and why we didn’t heed it, • treatments: hydroxychloroquine, remdesivir, Vitamin D. How civilization will change: • medical: coronavirus is here to stay — herd immunity naturally and through vaccines, • personal and public health: handshakes, hugs, and other human contact; masks, social distancing, hygiene, • long run healthier society (e.g., body temperatures have decreased from 98.6 to 97.9), • economics and business, • travel, conferences, meetings, • marriage, dating, sex, and home life, • entertainment, vacations, bars, and restaurants, • education and schools, • politics and society (and a better understanding of freedom and why it is restricted), • from pandemic to endemic.
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