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China Wind Sector China Utilities 21 January 2016 China Wind Sector Initiation: Less is more We see multi-year headwinds for the China Wind Sector, including worsening curtailment, tariff cuts, and slowing capacity addition Wind IPPs with large existing capacities and fewer pipeline projects in Zones I and II should fare best; valuations look to be at trough levels Dennis Ip, CFA (852) 2848 4068 We prefer balanced play Huadian Fuxin and scaled play Longyuan; [email protected] wind equipment and small grid-curtailed IPPs are likely to suffer Scott Chui (852) 2848 4443 [email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 127 China Wind Sector: 21 January 2016 Table of contents Investment thesis ..................................................................................................... 6 Daiwa’s 1T4C approach .................................................................................................... 6 Less is more ..................................................................................................................... 7 What to expect in each of the next 3 years ....................................................................... 8 Fuxin and Longyuan are our preferred picks ..................................................................... 9 China Wind Sector outlook — 1T4C...................................................................... 10 FiT cut should enhance market efficiency ........................................................................10 Installation costs ..............................................................................................................17 Grid curtailment: moderating in 2017E, but probably not eliminated until 2020E ..............21 Capacity additions: more about the quality than quantity .................................................32 Repair and maintenance costs .........................................................................................34 IRR sensitivity analysis ....................................................................................................36 Valuation and risks ................................................................................................. 38 Fuxin looks the most attractive vs. growth outlook ...........................................................38 Main risk: local utilisation protection measures ................................................................42 Appendix I: UHV transmission network ................................................................ 43 Appendix II: Wind curtailment map (1H15) ........................................................... 49 Appendix III: Wind project IRR analysis ............................................................... 50 Company Section China Longyuan Power ....................................................................................................51 Huadian Fuxin Energy .....................................................................................................73 CGN New Energy Holdings..............................................................................................77 China Suntien Green Energy ...........................................................................................81 China High Speed Transmission .................................................................................... 101 Henan Pinggao Electric ................................................................................................. 107 XJ Electric ...................................................................................................................... 115 China Utilities 21 January 2016 China Wind Sector Initiation: Less is more We see multi-year headwinds for the China Wind Sector, including worsening curtailment, tariff cuts, and slowing capacity addition Wind IPPs with large existing capacities and fewer pipeline projects in Zones I and II should fare best; valuations look to be at trough levels Dennis Ip, CFA (852) 2848 4068 We prefer balanced play Huadian Fuxin and scaled play Longyuan; [email protected] wind equipment and small grid-curtailed IPPs are likely to suffer Scott Chui (852) 2848 4443 [email protected] Investment case: We believe the China Wind Sector faces multi-year Key stock calls challenges: the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is New Prev. cutting tariffs every 2 years, IRRs on new projects look set to decline on China Longyuan Power (916 HK) Rating Outperform stable construction costs, and wind curtailment will likely remain an issue Target 5.30 even after ultra-high-voltage (UHV) lines are built. In this report, we Upside p 13.7% highlight the main headwinds using our proprietary “1T4C” assessment. Huadian Fuxin Energy (816 HK) Rating Outperform Outperform Equity IRR of new wind farms to decline. We expect new wind projects’ Target 1.75 1.75 profitability to decline on the 2016/18 tariff cuts, with equity IRRs going from Upside p 7.4% 11-17% beforehand to 9-16% in 2016E and 10-14% in 2018E. In turn, we CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK) Rating Hold Hold foresee relatively sluggish wind capacity additions of 21GW/23GW in Target 1.45 1.45 2016/17E (2015E: 25GW). Upside p 3.6% China Suntien Green Energy (956 HK) UHV lines to partly relieve wind curtailment in 2H17E. The rapid growth Rating Hold Hold in wind capacity during 2014/15 looks set to exacerbate the issue of wind Target 1.10 1.65 Upside p 2.8% curtailment, ie, electricity wasted after generation, which we see rising from 8% in 2014 to 16%/18% in 2015/16E, respectively. In our view, there is too Source: Daiwa forecasts much wind power in total for local utilisation protection to be viable, and we expect a meaningful improvement in curtailment to start only in 2H17, after the commissioning of UHV transmission lines. However, we do not foresee wind curtailment being completely resolved by the UHV network. We estimate that equity IRRs for Zone I wind farms could fall from 14% in 2015 to 9% by 2018E in the event that utilisation remains at 1,900 hours. Less is more is our investment theme for 2016, and we prefer companies with defensive earnings profiles, ie, those with: 1) smaller proportions of new capacity coming on stream after tariff cuts, and 2) fewer pipeline projects in Zones I and II. Equipment makers will likely suffer as they look the most susceptible to our expected decline in wind power installation in 2016E, both in terms of volume contraction and margin compression. Catalysts: The main near-term share-price catalyst for the sector should be the regulator’s upward revision of wind capacity targets for 2020. Longer term, we would view intensifying wind curtailment as a key catalyst. Recommendations: Fundamental weakness is almost priced in, in our view, after a 50%-plus decline in share prices for the wind IPP names over the past 6 months. We see investment value in large-scale player China Longyuan (916 HK, HKD4.66, Outperform [2] and diversified player Huadian Fuxin (816 HK, HKD1.63, Outperform [2]). Risks: The major risk to our Negative sector rating would be stronger-than- expected utilisation protection measures for wind farms in the northwest. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 127 China Wind Sector: 21 January 2016 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook China Wind Sector: grid-connected capacity additions We expect China’s wind power installation to face a (GW) temporary slowdown after the rush installations seen in 30 40% 25 25 24 2015, under which completions targeted for 2016 were 25 23 30% 21 22 brought forward. In turn, we forecast a 16% YoY drop in 20 20 17 20% 15 wind capacity additions, from 25GW for 2015E to 21GW in 14 14 2016E. 15 10% 10 0% We expect wind capacity addition to recover in 2017E, 5 (10%) driven by a slight easing of wind curtailment issues 0 (20%) following the commissioning of the UHV transmission 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E network and the scheduled cut in the on-grid tariff in Newly connected capacity YoY growth - RHS 2018E. Source: NEA, Daiwa forecasts Valuation China Wind Sector: 2016E ROE vs. 2016E PBR On the basis of 2016E ROE vs. PBR, Fuxin and CGN New 20% Energy look to be the most undervalued stocks in our 18% coverage universe. While we are arguably being prudent in 16% Fuxin Goldwind - H our 2016E EPS forecast for Fuxin (10% below the 14% CGNNE 12% HNR consensus forecast), we see uncertainty over CGN New 10% Longyuan Energy’s planned asset injections given its weak valuation. 8% CHST 2016E 2016E ROE 6% Suntien Among the wind equipment manufacturers, we believe 4% Datang RE CHST has a better risk-reward profile than Goldwind 2% despite having a lower 2016E ROE. Trading at a 1.5x 0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 2016E PBR, Goldwind looks at risk of a share-price 2016E PBR correction if the wind equipment sector suffers a demand Source: Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg consensus for non-rated companies shock, in our view. Note: Pricing as of 19 Jan 2016 Earnings revisions China Wind Sector: Bloomberg consensus 2016E EPS revisions The Bloomberg consensus earnings forecasts for the wind Rebased at 100 farm operators have been on a downtrend since early 120 2015, driven by the worsening curtailment issue (and 110 100 hence lower utilisation rate), despite improving wind 90 speeds. 80 70 Longyuan is the one exception to this trend, likely
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