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Community-Level Indicators of Radicalization Community‐Level Indicators of Radicalization: A Data and Methods Task Force Report to Human Factors/Behavioral Sciences Division, Science and Technology Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security February 16, 2010 National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence Based at the University of Maryland 3300 Symons Hall • College Park, MD 20742 • 301.405.6600 • www.start.umd.edu National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence About This Report This report is part of a series sponsored by the Human Factors/Behavioral Sciences Division in support of the Counter‐IED Prevent/Deter program. The goal of this program is to sponsor research that will aid the intelligence and law enforcement communities in identifying potential terrorist threats and support policymakers in developing prevention efforts. The author of this report is Shira Fishman, director of the project. This material is based upon work supported by the Human Factors/Behavioral Sciences Division of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under Grant Award Number 2008‐ ST‐061‐ST0004, made to the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and responses to Terrorism (START, www.start.umd.edu). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or START. About START The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) is supported in part by the Science and Technology Directorate of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security through a Center of Excellence program based at the University of Maryland. START uses state‐of‐the‐art theories, methods and data from the social and behavioral sciences to improve understanding of the origins, dynamics and social and psychological impacts of terrorism. For more information, contact START at [email protected] or visit www.start.umd.edu. Citations To cite this report, please use this format: “Author, Title of Report, College Park, MD, START 2009” Contents Personnel ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 Participants ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Agenda .......................................................................................................................................................... 5 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 8 Project Background ....................................................................................................................................... 8 Task Force Process ........................................................................................................................................ 9 Background on Radicalization and Community-Level Research ................................................................. 10 Defining Radicalization ............................................................................................................................ 10 Defining Terrorism .................................................................................................................................. 11 Defining Community ............................................................................................................................... 11 Related Research .................................................................................................................................... 12 Key Topics for Consideration ...................................................................................................................... 15 A New Approach to Studying Radicalization: Observations at the Community Level ................................ 19 Dependent variable – trying to identify “communities with individuals vulnerable to radicalization” . 21 Possible Independent Variables .............................................................................................................. 23 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 31 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................ 33 Appendix A: Task Force Participant Biographies ........................................................................................ 35 Appendix B: Pre-Workshop Papers ............................................................................................................. 41 3 Personnel Workshop moderator: Gary LaFree, Director, START Project staff: Shira Fishman, Project Director Kathleen Smarick, Executive Director, START Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Human Factors/Behavioral Sciences Division: Allison Smith, Program Manager Kevin Spence (Booz Allen Hamilton) Participants • Victor Asal, Political Science, University at Albany • Susan Clarke, Political Science, University of Colorado at Boulder • Kelly Damphousse, Sociology, University of Oklahoma • Josh Freilich, Criminology, John Jay College of Criminal Justice • Ryan King, Sociology, University at Albany • Clark McCauley, Psychology, Bryn Mawr College • Sophia Moskalenko, Psychology, Bryn Mawr College • Graeme Newman, Criminology, University at Albany • Brian Nussbaum, NY State Department of Homeland Security & Criminology, Bridgewater State College • Fran Norris, Psychiatry, Dartmouth Medical School • Andrew Papachristos, Sociology, University of Massachusetts at Amherst • Magnus Ranstorp, Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies, Swedish National Defence College • Kris Robison, Sociology, Northern Illinois University • Bert Useem, Sociology, Purdue University • Stevan Weine, Psychiatry, University of Illinois at Chicago 4 Note Takers: • Kurt Braddock, PhD candidate, Penn State University • Alexendra Prokopets, Research Assistant, Global Terrorism Database, University of Maryland • Joseph Simone, Research Assistant, Global Terrorism Database, University of Maryland • Benjamin Rosenbaum, Research Assistant, Global Terrorism Database, University of Maryland Agenda Thursday, October 15, 2009 9:00am Welcome and Introductions 9:45am Presentations by participants on thought pieces 1:00pm Lunch 2:00pm Breakout Session #1: Generating research questions, data and methods 4:15pm Plenary wrap-up Friday, October 16, 2009 9:00am Overview of the day 9:15am Breakout Session #2: Creating a research agenda 12:15pm Plenary wrap up 12:30pm Close 5 Executive Summary Recently, a number of United States citizens have been charged with seeking oversees training for terrorist plots, sending money to fund terrorism or plotting to launch terrorist attacks within the United States. These actions underscore the need to prevent violent radicalization well before the immediate threat of an attack. This is an emerging research area, and far too little is known about what drives individuals to engage in violent radical behavior. In addition, the vast majority of past research has focused on case studies constructed after an attack or attempted attack, large-scale attitudinal surveys, or interviews with former terrorists. As with all research, these methods have limitations including lack of external validity (limiting ones’ ability to generalize from one individual to other cases), the reliance on finding and convincing individuals to grant interviews, and the ability of large-scale attitudinal surveys to capture extremist beliefs. Thus, the current project was launched to explore alternative research approaches that could be used to improve understanding of the processes surrounding violent radicalization. In particular, we sought to examine whether empirical research, using archival or institutional data at the community level, could provide new insights into factors that might leave individuals vulnerable to radicalization. Scholars from around the world with expertise in radicalization, communities in the United States and innovative methods from related fields, agreed to serve on a Task Force focused on these issues. The group was brought together for a day and a half to explore the potential relationship between community characteristics and susceptibility to radicalization. The Task Force began with the theoretical premise that some communities might possess certain characteristics that make the likelihood and/or rates of radicalization higher in those communities. Marginalized communities (including Diaspora groups), those that experience relative deprivation (of resources, both financial and otherwise), and communities that have experienced significant social disruption emerged as priority areas for future research. To conduct empirical research, three categories of dependent variables were identified by Task Force members as potential
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