ELECTION UPDATE 2004 SOUTH AFRICA

number 1 · 2 february 2004

Editorial of press reports, observation Commission), foreign and interviews with relevant embassies and missions, South Africa will hold its stakeholders. This first issue Universities, NGOs, religious third multi-party general of the newsletter covers seven bodies, and other related election sometime this year. (7) of the country’s nine (9) agencies. We strongly This general election, in fact, provinces and focuses debate encourage that you contact us coincides with the country’s around such issues as review at [email protected] if you celebration of its ten (10) of the 1994 and 1999 would like to receive the years of democracy. The elections; the institutional and newsletter every fortnight. election, therefore, is crucial legal framework for the 2004 to the nurturing of South elections; voter education; Individual authors take Africa’s democracy since the voter registration; and party responsibility for the views political changes of 1994. Not registration. The newsletter is and opinions expressed in the compiled by EISA staff and publication. only that; the election is also epoch-making in that it sets associates located across the contents the scene for the future of country. With a view to democratic governance in the encourage rich and fruitful Editorial 1 country, at least in the next debate, contributors have been The Context 2 decade. given the liberty to express National Perspectives 8 their own opinions, based on Provincial Roundup 12 The Electoral Institute of factual and verifiable Gauteng 12 Southern Africa (EISA) has a information. Of course, NorthWest Province 16 keen interest in fostering democracy is all about KZN 18 democratic governance in the tolerance of divergence or FreeState 24 in Africa, the SADC region diversity of views without Western Cape 29 and South Africa. It is for this imposition of one particular Eastern Cape 32 reason that EISA has world-view . Mpumalanga 36 established the Election 2004

Task Team as it did with the The newsletter will be posted

1999 Election. Through this on the EISA website, printed EISA Editorial Team team, EISA will produce a in a series, CD-Rom format and as a book at the end of the Wole Olaleye Dr Jackie Kalley fortnightly newsletter prior to, Dr Khabele Matlosa Claude during and after the election. elections as an historical record. It will also be widely Kabemba The newsletter will provide a disseminated – through the detailed coverage and analysis published with the assistance of of the political developments following: postages services, OSF-SA and NORAD that have both direct and emails to political parties, indirect bearing on the 2004 government departments, the election on the basis mainly IEC (Independent Electoral THE each party. For the specialists most compelling were the among Update’s readers, perceived need during the CONTEXT South Africa uses the Droop constitutional negotiations to How the System formula (or the highest adopt an electoral system in Works remainder method) to award which racial minorities would seats: this is described in have a presence and the Professor Tom Lodge detail in last year’s Electoral desirability of including University of the Law Amendment. In effect, within the ambit of formal Witwatersrand this system means that there is political institutions very no formal threshold for small parties on the edges of South Africa has used a parliamentary representation the ideological spectrum. In national list system of and, in 1999 parties that these two respects, the proportional representation in collected as few as 27,000 electoral system has served its elections since 1994. votes, AZAPO for example, South Africa well: minorities Voters complete two ballot in the last general election are generously represented in papers, one for the National obtained a seat in the National parliament (arguably they Assembly and one for the Assembly. enjoy disproportionate legislature of one of the nine influence) and previously provinces. No names appear What this means is that voters radical fringe groups have on these papers, only the titles choose parties, not individual been drawn into the political of parties, pictures of their representatives, and MP’s are mainstream (black-conscious leaders and their symbols or directly accountable to their revolutionary socialists, logos. Parties may contest the leaders, not to the electorate. Afrikaner irredentists, polls for all of the legislatures The larger parties do assign Christian fundamentalists, and the National Assembly or their MP’s to different areas, etc.). only some of these in doing so normally institutions, in the 120 or so following the boundaries of Because the issue of who sits parties currently registered municipal demarcation, but in parliament is at the with the Independent this assignment is voluntary discretion of party leaders this Electoral Commission (IEC) not a legal requirement and means that parties can include are many regional parties that there are no strong incentives in their lists people who might will probably only seek seats for MP’s to nurture their own encounter difficulties in in a single legislature as well geographical support base. securing support if they had to as a variety of single issue Many people feel this is a stand as candidates in groups. Parties submit lists of weakness of the system Westminster style candidates to IEC: two lists because legislators do not constituency elections: for the National Assembly – have the same kind of public uncharismatic technocrats, for nominations for a “national accountability that exists in instance, or people from racial list” and nominations of the constituency-based system minorities who lived in Assembly members proposed under which minority rule predominantly African areas from the parties’ provincial South Africa was governed (assuming that racial identity formations, and lists for each until 1994. South Africa’s might influence voter of the regional legislatures. choice of national list decisions, in South Africa an representation was prompted untested and perhaps After the voting, seats are by a number of questionable assumption). allocated in accordance to the considerations. Of these the Women normally fare badly share of the vote received by election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 in constituency elections and though they would have still become exceptional. Even women are especially well to undergo party re-selection within KwaZulu-Natal the represented in South African at the end of the relationship between ANC parliaments largely because parliamentary term as is the and the Inkatha Freedom the ANC has adopted a quota normal practice in many Party was more civil in 1999 arrangement in which every constituency systems. On the than in 1994, though “no-go” third name on every electoral whole, irrespective of zones persisted, especially in list is female. How parties electoral system, the modern the northern regions of the choose their lists is up to them international trend is towards province. as though most groups have executive dominated incorporated a degree of parliamentary caucuses. On the whole, South African democracy into their party campaigning tends to be procedures: the ANC, for As far as elections are presidential in character, example, initiates a concerned, the consequences another consequence of a nomination process from the of a national list PR ballot are system in which voters are branches and holds lists generally benign. Because all encouraged to support parties conferences, though the final votes count equally – there rather than individual choice can be adjusted by its are no “wasted” votes as in legislators. The identification National Executive. the case of constituency of the party with its leader elections, parties have an helps to personalise the So, the South African system incentive to seek out all votes campaign and, in the past is strong when it comes to wherever they are rather than opinion polls have often “descriptive representation” merely concentrating on their indicated that the popularity or the inclusion within home bases. This of individual national institutions of a good cross consideration helps to politicians can cross party section of the population. motivate parties to direct their boundaries. Parties are Critics suggest, though, that appeals at the unconverted prohibited from advertising because the main lines of and to cross South Africa’s on television, though radio accountability flow upwards, historical social barriers of advertising (as well as the from legislators to their race and region and normally provision of free radio time to leaders, ruling party this means that they try to parties) were key factors in parliamentarians are reluctant occupy the “middle ground” the 1999 campaigning. to exercise their oversight ideologically. In a society However the more function, that is, to challenge with a history of political professional South African their leaders if they find polarization this centrist parties direct their messages legislative proposals dynamic is helpful. Because at television audiences objectionable or they perceive “occupation” of “territory” is assiduously. Opinion polls abuses of power. MP’s can less relevant than it would be suggest that more and more be dismissed by party leaders in a first past the post system, South African citizens use at any time during a there is less reason for parties television as their main source parliamentary term. If ANC to deny their rivals access to of political information and representatives were directly certain neighbourhoods: this hence the free coverage that elected they might be readier sort of behaviour was quite party campaigning may to challenge government more common in the 1994 elections receive in television news and vigorously over certain whereas in 1999, outside actuality programming may contentious policy issues, KwaZulu-Natal, it had be a very important influence

3 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 on voter decision-making. and other kinds of market performed the first role more With this consideration in research. The ANC has since confidently than the second. mind, party-presidential “road 1994 been the lead spender. In shows” and telegenic events 1994 and to a lesser extent in In 1999 polling stations such as stadium rallies have 1999 much of its funding opened on time, officials become an increasingly arrived from foreign sources: behaved helpfully and important ingredient in today party political funding conducted procedures campaigning, though the is mainly domestic and neutrally, and the ballot count ANC as well as the competition between parties was swift and accurate. Democratic Alliance and the to secure it is very keen. State Earlier registration procedures New National Party maintain funding is available to those embraced about 18 million traditional forms of parties that already enjoy people, more than three electioneering such as door to representation, roughly in quarters of the eligible door canvassing especially in proportion to their support, population, a comparatively poorer neighbourhoods where but with respect to the larger high figure in a developing people will only support parties public finance only democracy, and the process parties that they deem to be pays for a small share of their itself was undertaken quite part of their local community electioneering. Businesses carefully (there were life. Indeed the ANC’s plans now confront a degree of exceptional lapses) so that this year are for a renewed public pressure to disclose only people who were entitled emphasis on direct contact their donations to parties and to cast their votes (in contrast with individual voters. Direct certain companies have done to 1994). In line with South mailing and telephone so. The larger parties, African political culture, the canvassing, staples in US- unsurprisingly, resist calls for IEC favours conflict style elections, are in their disclosure. mediation rather than the infancy in South Africa. adjudication of disputes Elections as well as voter between parties during Despite their deployment of registration are organised by elections and both in 1999 volunteers the bigger parties the Independent Electoral and in the 2000 local poll, its spend large amounts of Commission (IEC), which party liaison committees and money on campaigning, much since its establishment in its provincial conflict more so proportionately than 1999 has consolidated a resolution structures is usual in most developing reputation for both integrity performed outstandingly in countries. In 1999 radio and efficiency. The most sorting out quarrels and advertising constituted the persuasive evidence of its addressing contraventions of leading item in party budgets administrative and moral the IEC’s Code of Conduct. but there are also huge qualities was the absence of printing costs that arise from any serious questioning of the Other regulatory institutions the extensive use of posters 1999 results (as well as those include the Independent and leaflets, as well as a of the 2000 municipal poll) by Communications Authority of considerably heavier any of the parties, even those South Africa (ICASA), the investment in print media that did very badly. The IEC agency that governs publicity than is normal in is meant to function both as a broadcasting and which advanced democracies. The manager of elections and as a replaced the old Independent three main parties spend regulator. In practice it has Broadcasting Authority (IBA) millions of rands on surveys which in 1999 was intended

4 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 to ensure that the public (and they are deeply dissatisfied to be a proportionately private) broadcasters gave with the ANC’s performance growing share of the parties equitable (though not tend to stay at home rather population, will work to the equal) coverage. The IBA did than transferring their support ANC’s disadvantage. not exercise its authority very to another party. For the Persuading first time eligible effectively in this capacity ANC, therefore, this time voters to participate in and the South African around, motivating their urban elections is increasingly Broadcasting Corporation’s core support to cast their difficult worldwide: South (SABC) campaigning ballots will be a key African parties have invested coverage included some challenge. little discernable effort in unfavourable editorial addressing young voters treatment of the Democratic Conventional opinion has it beyond inviting (often Party. ICASA’s first test in that low turn-out harms the middle-aged) pop singers to this arena occurred last month ANC disproportionately, perform at their rallies. when it was asked to respond though in fact, in the last to a complaint about the election the parties that were The other key trends include SABC’s decision to accord damaged worst by voter stay Inkatha’s tendency to defy real-time coverage to the aways were the New National predictions and remain an ANC’s manifesto launch. Its Party and the groups important player (opinion decision not to censure the representing the Afrikaner polling procedure is probably SABC was not impressively right: a million eligible and most vulnerable to distortion argued. registered white voters in in rural KwaZulu-Natal where 1999 did not bother to vote. people may be most inclined Results and Trends: The ANC over the last ten to tell pollsters what they 1994-2004 years has battled to obtain a think they want to hear). majority among Indian voters Inkatha’s share of the vote What are the main trends in though its share of the declined by two per cent in party support and voter coloured vote has increased, 1999 from 1994 but it did behaviour? These can be to well above half with its well in the subsequent summarised briefly. Voter improved performance in municipal elections. Analysts support for the ANC is stable, these communities especially believe that rapid urbanisation as evidenced in two general obvious in the smaller rural will iron out in the long term elections and two local polls, towns. White support for the to strengthen the KwaZulu- is stable as well as recent ANC has increased Natal ANC to the IFP’s opinion poll findings from the fractionally, mainly in the disadvantage. In previous Human Sciences Research Western Cape but remains elections, however the ANC Council (HSRC) and insignificant, though in the has squandered opportunities SABC/Markinor. The ANC Western Cape this time in this province through weak draws its support from about around, in the context of a leadership and inept two thirds of the electorate. keen competition, the ANC electioneering. Its most loyal and emotionally can be expected to make committed voters are poor, efforts to court white votes. The most volatile segment of rural and black but it also Expected turnout lows among the South African electorate is enjoys overwhelming backing young voters, given white and its political fluidity from black people in towns, demographic patterns in helps to explain the most nation-wide. ANC voters if which black citizens are likely noticeable fluctuations in

5 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 party support between 1994 with them will probably one in which other branches and 2004. The Democratic disappear from pubic life of the media can collaborate Alliance may gain a though the low threshold for with the more specialised percentage point or two from representation may ensure the agencies. the continuing tendency of survival of two figures with former supporters of the genuine popularity: Patricia Reports suggest there is less National Party to back Tony de Lille and Peter Marais, donor money available this Leon’s combative style of both maverick personalities time around to support opposition: recent municipal from the Western Cape. political party expenditure. by elections have generally The temptation will be all the confirmed this predisposition. Points for Democracy greater for parties who enjoy Democrats were beginning in Watchers access to official positions to 1999 and 2000 to make use public resources inroads into the black This is South Africa’s third improperly: official transport, electorate and they have since democratic general election. for example, or government established a network of There has been considerable media. Such predispositions township branches in Gauteng progress in improving the need to be discouraged by and adjoining provinces: they quality of electoral attentive journalists and will feel that this effort amply management and in the assertive electoral observers. rewarded if their share of the campaigning conduct of black township vote exceeds political parties since 1994. Competition this year is likely 10 per cent in those districts For observers who have an to be even more intensive in which they have a especial concern about the than in the past in the Western presence. quality of South African Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. In democracy the following previous contests the ANC 1999 witnessed the partial points merit particular fought restrained campaigns resurrection of homeland attention. and tacitly recognised the political elites at the helm of political benefit with respect such groups as the UCDP and Broadcasting plays an to a smooth democratic the UDM: recent polls increasingly important role in transition of conceding indicate that both parties will South African politics. In provincial executive power to exceed informed expectations 1994 the SABC managed to its opponents. This time the if they maintain their present persuade most of the ANC has identified as its level of parliamentary contestants that it would benchmarks for overall representation. perform its functions achievement in this election impartially and it attracted victories in both these Finally, several more parties praise all round. This was not provinces – these it views as are represented in parliament the case in 1999 and early requirements for the than were elected five years signals this year suggest that completion of South African ago: their presence is a there will continue to be “liberation”. Party elites will consequence of the defections contention over the SABC’s need to put extra effort into sanctioned by crossing the role. We need good and disciplining their activists. floor legislation. This was an timely monitoring of There already have been unpopular innovation and broadcasting: this is a project dangerous signals that we most of the new groups and that must be undertaken with may witness a revival of the personalities associated skill and sensitivity and it is ANC/IFP hostilities in

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KwaZulu-Natal. The IEC Africa’s electorate with case that some of the most would do well to make sure respect to political affiliations newsworthy campaigning will that its conflict resolution and to a dangerous degree. The be in the more remote areas. party liaison structures are up DA claims it is taking its For example, the ANC will be and running in this province prospects within the black defending its position in the as soon as possible. electorate seriously: measure Northwest and Limpopo the depth of its commitment under new leadership: so far Good turnout is obviously by the nature of its the press had paid very little desirable for a strong campaigning. A more attention to the political and democracy. Turnout in 1999 positive DA electioneering social dynamics of leadership was around 68 per cent of the style with messages that competition in those two eligible population and nearly accord with the issue ranking provinces. Rural voters will ninety per cent of the amongst black voters will be a still determine the outcome of registered electorate. The good indicator of its intention the KwaZulu-Natal elections IEC should feel satisfied if to win fresh support within – electioneering in the turnout exceeds these figures. black communities. A countryside here deserves Since last year, it has campaign that focuses on much better reporting than it succeeded in registering two merely attacking the ANC receives, even in the Durban million new voters: if these will suggest a more defensive press. and most of those who strategy in which black voters previously voted attend the represent only a marginal Last point: the rules are more polling stations, turnout preoccupation. or less the same as in 1994 should be satisfactory. The and 1999 but after successive ANC intends to work hard on With regard to reporting, legislative amendments and mobilising its traditional South African newspapers new sets of regulations there support bases: this seems seem to contain less and less are more of them and their sensible and other parties that rural and provincial news. interpretation may be subject neglect their core support in Major newspapers should try to more dispute. If you are a favour of finding new to overcome the tendency to participant, or a reporter, or followers risk decline. report the election exclusively an observer, learn the rules from the large cities. Where before the game starts. EISA Even so, it is in the general there is less media attention and the IEC are publishing a interest that parties acquire abuses are most likely to handbook in mid-February: more diverse support bases: occur, but as well as this place your order for a free race still divides South important issue it is also the copy now.

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NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES

VOTER boundaries had been Results were as follows: considerable a door-to-door REGISTRATIO targeted campaign was New Registrations N undertaken by the IEC to Results indicated a total of 1 ensure that voter registrations 433 490 new registration COUNTRYWID were correct. She emphasised applications: 800 322 females E that in the field of democracy (55.8%); 633 168 males A Focus on the development and education (44.2%); youth between the Independent projects had already been ages of 18 – 25 (58.5%). Electoral implemented to teach learners In terms of the Commission about their right to register Rural/Urban/Metro and to vote. On a technical classification these reflected Beth Strachan note she confirmed that, Rural: 617 719 (43.09%); EISA following the Metro:405 540 (28.29%); recommendations made by the Urban 410 231 (28.62%). Countdown to Registration: Electoral task Team appointed Getting ready! by the Cabinet in 2003, the Re-Registrations Commission would continue Re-registrations across voting On the 4th of September 2003, with the electoral system used districts, 1 634 966 at the launch of the in the 1994 and 1999 applications countdown to Elections 2004, elections, i.e. the Proportional Re-registration within the the Electoral Commission Representation (PR) system. same voting districts 446 916 th announced the dates for the By the 9 of November the applications first period of registration for Chief Electoral Officer of the the 2004 National and IEC, Adv Pansy Tlakula could Total Registration Activity Provincial elections – the claim that a total of 16821 The total registration activity weekend of November 8 and voting stations had been put in of 3 515 372 applications did 9, 2003 was set aside and place to register first-time not of course reflect contacts plans were in place to enable voters and re-register those made through the IEC website all eligible voters to register. voters who had moved house. (53 914 enquiries over the The Chairperson of the IEC, Others already registered weekend) or to queries Dr. Brigilia Bam outlined the could inspect their details on handled by the Call Centre challenges facing the the Voters’ Roll. Continuous (199 062 calls answered Commission but claimed that calls were being made for between 1 October and 7 access, especially for rural verification of registration November, and 55 900 during voters, had been improved details on the IEC website at 8 - 9 November period). and that all voting facilities www.elections.org.za . Satisfaction was expressed by and voting districts had been the IEC over the positive re-evaluated, resulting in the Registration: Getting result of its communication creation of an additional 2 000 Started! campaigns, which had been voting districts. Where directed at the youth of the changes in voting district First Registration Weekend, 8 country and at rural voters. – 9 November 2003

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Registration: Continuing! households, and those KwaZulu-Natal and the temporarily absent from South Eastern Cape where storms Second Registration Africa, on holiday, on posed problems. Reports from Weekend, 24 -25 January business, studying abroad or informal settlements indicated 2004 taking part in a sporting event. lively participation. On the 17th of November the Overseas voters must of An upbeat view was taken by Electoral Commission course be already registered in IEC Chairperson Brigilia Bam confirmed that the second the voting district where they following her visits to a voter registration would take normally stay. To reach as number of voting stations in place on Saturday 24 January many people as possible and around Gauteng where and Sunday 25 January 2004. information was being she had seen many potential In preparation for this the disseminated on registration voters waiting to be registered Commission introduced new procedures, and the and it was clear the South technical initiatives – an qualifications required to African people had heeded the Integrated Voice Response register, through partnerships call to register. (IVR) facility to the Call with community based multi- centre and an SMS facility as purpose centres, civil society Although the last general well as improvements to their organisations, political registration drive has been www.elections.org.za web parties, youth formations, the completed, continuous site. To encourage young farming sector, tribal registration will take place at people to register the authorities and government Municipal Electoral Offices Commission undertook a joint departments. (MEOs) countrywide and will initiative with the Department only cease when the of Education targeting Senior By Saturday 24 January 2004 Voters’Roll closes on the day Learners, 16 years and older, the Commission had the President proclaims the with news letters in all eleven registered 19.4 million voters election date. official languages to be read on the Voters’ Roll – 1.3 in school assemblies and million more than for the This contribution is based on discussed in class rooms in 1999 elections. By Sunday 25 information from the Electoral Commission the week preceding the January 2004 the IEC could general registration weekend. report that it was clear that Prisoners, who qualified in thousands of South Africans terms of the Electoral Laws had heeded the call to register Amendment Act of 2003 and that the level of might register and the IEC engagement of young people visited prisons in the period had risen dramatically. Of 13 to 15 January 2004 during new registration applications which time 5 100 inmates received 61.3% were in the 18 were registered as voters. – 25 age group. The new Regulations concerning electronic facilities had overseas voting were proved their worth. clarified. Only two categories of overseas voters are Generally voting stations provided for: those absent opened on time across the from the RSA on government country, except for a few service and members of their ‘access challenges’ mainly in

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SOUTH national, provincial and local all parties. Rules for party government did not political broadcasts were AFRICAN propagandise the work of the drawn up – three-minute talks BROADCASTI ruling party - then the on radio by each of the National Party - or act contending parties with the NG detrimentally towards parties National Party and the ANC CORPORATIO not in power but which were given maximum time and the N BREAKS seeking election. then Democratic Party and The focus of this group was Pan Africanist Congress THE RULES mainly on the many sharing the next highest time AND ICASA publications produced by civil allocation - and these rules, servants to publicise their too, were carefully observed. TURNS A departments, always done in a The emphasis of the IMC was BLIND EYE flattering manner. The heads on fairness and equitability. of government departments, The latter term did not mean Raymond Louw with one or two relatively equal treatment but fair and Editor, Southern Africa minor exceptions, complied just treatment relative to the Report, Johannesburg fully with the IMC rules and size of the party and the immediately ended the flow number of candidates it was Several months before South of all but absolutely essential fielding. After the election the Africa's first democratic publications. parties accepted that the rules elections in 1994, the African had been largely obeyed - an National Congress insisted The ANC was determined that achievement the IMC that the government set up the the National Party should not believed resulting from all the Independent Media benefit in any way from role players being aware of its Commission (IMC) to government propaganda or presence and that they were monitor the conduct of the SABC bias in favour of it. under scrutiny. state broadcaster and the civil The work started before the service to ensure their election period proper - that is Once it assumed power, the equitable treatment of the the short period leading up to ANC rapidly jettisoned the contending political parties. the election from the time of IMC concept, though it One section of the IMC was the announcement of the casually assigned IMC duties assigned to monitor the SA election by the president. The to other bodies such as Broadcasting Corporation to IMC was mentored on the ICASA (Independent ensure that its coverage of the niceties of their duties by Communications Authority of election gave equitable and Canadians who had a wealth SA) and the IEC (Independent fair treatment to the political of experience in ensuring that Electoral Commission). Given parties in news and current Canadian politicians and civil the other tasks entrusted to affairs programmes and any servants scrupulously these bodies, there was little other programmes which observed the rules. hope of them carrying out touched on the election. IMC functions as The SABC rapidly fell into scrupulously as it did. The second section of the the spirit of the IMC's work IMC was dedicated to and with only one or two So now we are in another watching the civil service to exceptions, too, carefully election period - not official ensure that departments of followed the rules to be fair to yet, but to all intents and

10 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 purposes we are indeed in spokesperson for Penuell The gala performance was election mode and there is a Maduna’s Justice and accompanied by SABC strong feeling among the Constitutional Development statements that it would not electorate and among Ministry, claimed without a accord the same treatment to newspapers that the rules of blush that the SABC was not opposition parties, a promise fair treatment should be favouring the ANC but that it carried out a week later applied especially to use of recording the ``first important when the Inkatha Freedom state resources including those presidential'' speech of the Party launched its manifesto. of the public broadcaster, the year. He ignored the fact that The IFP received truncated SABC. it was an ANC rally and that TV coverage on the news Mbeki's speech was pure services although Radio 2000, But the ANC began its electioneering with not a hint not one of the regular election campaign early and of any important or channels, broadcast a sound made no bones about the use statesmanlike policy version of the event. of state resources. In June last utterances. He and the SABC year, post offices throughout news department on whose Opposition party complaints the country were flooded with behalf he spoke also ignored to Icasa were dismissed by pamphlets in all the official the fact that the televised that body on the ground that languages, ``The Tide has portion of Mbeki's speech the event fell outside the Turned'', extolling the lasted only 43 minutes, about ``election period''. It also achievements of the ANC as half the time allocated to the stated that the SABC had not enunciated in speeches by programme, and that the rest breached the Broadcast Act. President Thabo Mbeki, of the verbal action came Icasa, like the SABC, took no followed in September by a from political correspondents cognisance of the SABC's series of advertisements for and an analyst who also found editorial code which enjoins the ANC co-operative partner, the speech an electioneering fairness in the conduct of its the New National Party, in occasion. Mbeki started his news and current affairs Western Cape newspapers and speech with a ringing ``Viva, programmes. By no stretch, in October with the highly ANC, Viva'' and the sound even of Setsetse's publicised discussion track was only switched from imagination, can fairness be document, ”Towards a 10- him when he began handing accorded a 90-minute year Review”, which out awards to ANC branches. electioneering programme propagates the achievements The visuals were peppered devoted to the ANC and of the ANC in government. with shots of “Vote ANC” nothing equivalent to any Now, recently, we have had posters. other party. the SABC joining in the Perhaps the time has arrived electioneering by Twenty-eight minutes of the for a new IMC to be set up - broadcasting live on its most remaining time was devoted and a new Icasa. popular channel, TV2, a 90- to a question and answer minute programme dedicated session with Public to the launch of the ANC's Enterprises Minister Jeff election manifesto. Radebe, head of ANC policy The SABC, whose and chairman of the ANC spokesperson Paul Setsetse Manifesto Committee who uses much the same language used the occasion to expand and tactics that he used when on the virtues of the ANC.

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PROVINCIAL ROUNDUP

GAUTENG

ELECTION requisite administrative Commission (IEC) arrangements in this pre- established in terms of the MANAGEMEN election phase. The discussion 1993 Constitution. The vision T focuses on the registration of the IEC is “to strengthen The Preparedness process in the Gauteng constitutional democracy of the Province. First, the discussion through the delivery of free Independent highlights the manner in and fair elections in which which the registration process every voter is able to record Electoral has been managed. Second, his or her informed choice.”3 Commission the discussion interrogates the The IEC has to steadfastly

Khabele Matlosa registration trends and adhere to this vision statistics and finally we throughout all the three EISA conclude by teasing out the phases of the electoral process

possible meanings of the in order to ensure affective Introduction provincial registration data in and efficient management and

South Africa is one of the five relation to the national trend. administration of the 2004 elections. (5) SADC countries that will Managing the Registration hold their general elections in Process Our preliminary assessment 2004. The other four countries thus far is that the IEC has are Botswana, Malawi, Namibia and Mozambique. One important aspect of the started off well in discharging forthcoming election in South its overall mandate in this first The actual date of the 2004 Africa this year is surely the phase of the election. South African election will be manner in which it would be Although, it is currently announced by President managed and administered. involved in numerous Thabo Mbeki when he addresses Parliament on the Both the election process and activities, the major activity its outcome are highly has surely revolved around 11th February 2004.1 The dependent, among other voter registration. It should be Independent Electoral things, on the manner in borne in mind that voter Commission (IEC) has put which the election is managed registration in South Africa is plans in place to finalise the national and provincial voters and administered throughout a continuous process in which its three phases namely (a) the voters are supposed to register rolls by the same date.2 This pre-election phase, (b) the or inspect the voters' roll at article focuses attention upon polling phase or election day, office of Municipal Electoral the management of elections and (c) the post-election Officer during office hours and how the Independent phase. The management and within their localities. Over an Electoral Commission (IEC) administration of elections in above the continuous is putting in place the South Africa is the sole registration, the IEC responsibility of the organized targeted voter 1 Citizen, 26 January 2004 Independent Electoral 2 Ibid. 3 http://www.elections.org.za

12 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 registration campaigns on 8-9 outcome of the targeted registration figures in terms of November 2003 and 24-25 registration process.6 the age mix of the registration January 2004 with a view to process. Another interesting encourage voters to exercise aspect of the Gauteng their democratic right to vote Registration Statistics registration statistics which and thereby enhance popular reflects the national trend is participation in a democratic South Africa has a total that the lowest numbers of process. In both cases, about population of about 44.8 registered voters is in the age 17 000 registration stations million people. Of this, it is groups 80-89 (59 743) and were established by the IEC estimated that there are about followed by the age group 18- throughout the country to 27 436 898 eligible voters. So 19 (94 101). facilitate the registration far, the IEC registration process. And in both cases, process has captured about Conclusion the IEC recruited a total of 19.4 million voters for the about 50 271 people to assist 2004 election. This is 1.3 It is only fair to conclude that with the targeted voter million more above the 1999 the IEC has so far acquitted registration process. The IEC election figure of registered itself well in managing critical registration was boosted by voters and this suggests aspects of the pre-election President Mbeki’s visit to the considerable success of the arrangements in readiness for registration stations and IEC registration drive for the the forthcoming election in during his visits to Khutsong 2004 election. In the Gauteng particular the registration and Carletonville, the Province alone, about 4 803 process. It is possible that this President gave one simple 770 voters have been observation applies message “go and register so registered and of these 2 433 throughout the country, but that you can exercise your 718 are female voters while 2 most certainly this has been democratic right to vote.”4 370 052 are male voters. the case in the Gauteng Undoubtedly targeted There are therefore slightly Province. The registration registration was successful more female voters than male data presented above suggests and hence the IEC voters in the Province a trend a number of important Chairperson, Brigalia Bam, that mirrors the national features of the voting proclaimed “ as we enter the picture. At the national level population in Gauteng 10th year of our democracy, there are 10 987 663 female Province. First, the gender there can be no greater voters compared to 9 042 560 mix of the voting population satisfaction than that of seeing male voters. Further more is slightly skewed in favour of each and every one of those statistics at the Provincial women; in other words there who qualify to vote level indicates that the voting are more female voters in the registering and not waiting for population is larger among province than male voters. 2009.”5 In fact, all the major 30-39 age group (1 387 854), Second, if we define the youth political parties including the followed by the age group 20- age group as ranging between African National Congress 29 (1 118 312) and the third 18-29 years, evidence (ANC), the Democratic largest age group on the suggests that more young Alliance (DA), the New Gauteng voters’ register is the voters have registered to vote National Party (NNP) one between 40 and 49 years than is ordinarily observed; expressed satisfaction with the (1 042 652). Again, this trend this suggests that voter apathy is a replica of the national among the youth in the 4 The Star, 26 January 2004 Province may not be as wide- 5 Ibid. 6 Ibid.

13 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 spread and pervasive as it is words, registering to vote is age groups of 30-39 and 40- often suggested in the media. one thing, while actual voting 49 feature prominently on the What remains to be seen, on the day that President voters register in the Gauteng though, is whether these Thabo Mbeki would announce Province as they do in the relatively large numbers of in Parliament in February is national register. the youth who have registered quite another. Third, it is also will turn up to vote. In other worth noting that the middle

SNOOZE, YOU voter education programs are The media in the Gauteng in the pipeline. For example, LOSE Province has played a crucial in February 2, SABC 1 will be Voter Education role in voter education efforts. screening another voter in Gauteng? One mechanism that has been education program entitled opted for is the usage of daily Walala Wasala, Siyavota Sydney Letsholo newspapers like the Sowetan, Campaign. Loosely EISA The Star; and the Citizen to translated, Walala Wasala disseminate information on means “you snooze, you South Africa will be the importance of voting. lose”. According to a recent celebrating its ten years of Since the beginning of 2004, media release by the SABC, freedom this year. This these newspapers have Walala Wasala will change celebration will coincide with published special articles that mind sets of apathetic and the country’s general elections urge people to understand the alienated young South on a date to be announced. complexities of democracy. Africans who are eligible to However, media speculation The South African register and vote, to take part has it that President Thabo Broadcasting Corporation in the election process. The Mbeki will announce the (SABC) on the other hand has media release further asserts election date on 11 February been very vocal on matters of that this campaign will travel 2004. As the economic voter education. As in the to all the nine provinces, powerhouse of the country, 1994 and 1999 elections, the including Gauteng, in 13 the Gauteng province will SABC has voter education weeks. The SABC deserves brace itself for yet another programs that discuss thumbs up for these efforts! vicious electioneering by pertinent issues that registered political parties. It encourage participation in the Voter education initiatives in goes without saying, however, electoral process. Khululeka Gauteng, have not only been that this exercise would be (“be free”), which is screened limited to the SABC but have futile without voter education. on Wednesdays at 21h30 on also been complimented by Various stakeholders that play SABC 2, is a voter education various radio stations in the an important role in this drama series that attracts province. Y FM has been process include the media, numerous numbers of instrumental in getting leaders political parties, non viewers. The series of different political parties to governmental organisations interrogates the voting talk about voter education. (NGOs) or civic organisations procedures and highlights the Anchored by Thato “Fresh” and most importantly the importance of preserving Sikwane and his entourage, Independent Electoral democracy within South the Unrestricted show has Commission (IEC). Africa. Furthermore, other thus far managed to invite the

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Democratic Party’s Tony Khaya FM and Metro FM. others. To some extent, NGOs Leon to the program. Plans The masses of Gauteng are do join hands with the IEC to are also in the pipeline to fortunate to have these radio work together to promoter invite the leader of the newly stations talking about these voter education. In an effort to formed Independent crucial issues. All that is left increase voter turn-out in this Democrats (ID), Patricia De now is for the people to year’s general elections, the Lille. Listeners are exercise their democratic right IEC has planned to join forces encouraged to participate in and vote for the party of their with churches, NGOs and the discussions by calling in choice. Let the voting begin. youth organisations; and and ask whatever questions political parties. Time will they might have. This youth NGOs like the Electoral only tell whether this exercise radio station has played and Institute of Southern Africa was worth the time and will continue to play a (EISA) have always been money. socially responsible role for involved in voter education the masses of Gauteng by campaigns. In previous Jwale ke nako, the time has highlighting the importance of elections, both general and come for the Gauteng masses voter education. local government elections, to practically translate the EISA has had voter education lessons of voter education into The ruling party, the African programs such as a reality by voting in the National Congress (ANC), “Masibambisane” (for local country’s general elections in used the funeral of Y FM’s government elections), 2004! personality, Fana “Khabzela” “Sondelani Sisovota” and Khaba on the 24th of January “Make Yourself Heard” 2004 to talk about voter campaigns. For this year’s education. Speaking at the elections, EISA’s Conflict funeral, Gwen Ramokgopa Management, Democracy and MEC for health in Gauteng Electoral Education urged the masses to take department has introduced a forward the struggle for project entitled “One in a democracy for which Million”. This project, to Khabzela was renowned. “As some extent deals with issues someone who loved his of democracy and explains the country and its people”, need for people to participate Ramokgopa urged the masses, in the electoral process. A “Khabzela" would have asked workshop for high school you to vote in the elections teachers that took place later this year”. It goes recently in Klipspruit West without saying that this radio High School is one example station has helped in getting of the project. Similar voter the message across, and most education initiatives have importantly, to the youth of been undertaken by other Gauteng. However, it is not NGOs, for example the Joint only Y FM that has been Enrichment Program (JEP), involved in voter education the South African Council of campaigns. Worth mentioning Churches (SACC) and many are other radio stations like

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NORTH WEST PROVINCE

APATHY TO in support as its share fell Whether or not there is much from 83% to 79% of votes. prospect for regional parties BE THE BIG The main beneficiary of the depends largely on how voters WINNER IN reduced support levels were rate the performance of the the Democratic Party (DP) ruling party, how viable the THE NORTH and Lucas Mangope's UCDP. alternatives are seen and, WEST The DP's share of votes rose more to the point, how PROVINCE from under one percent of disillusioned voters react. votes to over 3 percent. More Indications are that voters, as pronounced was the a rule, are reluctant to vote for Michael O’Donovan experience of the UCDP a rival to “their” party even Independent Political Analyst which suddenly presented when disillusioned with its itself as the second biggest performance. Consequently Political Parties party - albeit with only 10% disillusioned voters are more of votes. The UCDP did not likely to abstain from voting One upshot of increasing participate in the 1994 thereby limiting the prospects democratic consolidation is elections and its subsequent of much change in support the rapid rise in the number emergence as a political factor patterns. Voter registration of political parties that are bode well for regional trends already hints at what registered to participate in the political parties. The UCDP may happen in the North West upcoming elections - at last experience (coupled to the Province count there were 143 IFP's success in KwaZulu registered political parties. Of Natal) 7 suggested that Voter Registration these only four are focussed political parties with regional on the North West Province focus could compete, if not In 1999 the registration rate these include the United against the ruling party, then among the voting age Christian Democratic Party against opposition parties with population in the North West (UCDP) and the NoordWes national pretensions. In 1999 equalled the national average Forum. The small number of the UCDP with 124 874 votes – 69%. Since then, at a parties focussing on the polled almost three times the national level, enthusiasm for province strongly reflects the number of votes won by the voting has barely dropped dominance the ANC enjoys in Democratic Party (42 593) with 68% of the voting age the area. In 1994 the African and four times the number of population having registered. National Congress (ANC) votes won by the NNP In North West Province the won 83 percent of the votes (29 931). drop has been far more cast. The second biggest party marked – now only 57% of was then the National Party the voting age population in (NP) with under 9 percent of 7 that province has now the votes. By 1999 the NP The 80% of the votes cast for the UCDP were from the North West registered to vote. The drop is share of the vote had dropped Province, similarly 52% of UDM votes even more marked given the from 9% to 2% of votes cast. were from the Eastern Cape. Although the IFP has a strong national presence IEC's attempts to address poor Over the period the ANC 87% of all votes cast for it were from registration among experienced a slight reduction KwaZulu Natal. marginalised population like

16 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 the youth and rural poor. intercensus period (1996 to provinces population through While the province has its fair 2001) the total number of jobs parochial issues remains to be share of youth (who in in the province grew by the seen. keeping with expected trends same amount i.e. jobs are remain somewhat “apathetic” growing at about one fifth the about electoral politics), and rate of the population. An more than its share of rural inevitable product of this is poor. Because of poor increasing unemployment and services and economic ever greater dependence on hardship the latter's the state for essential services. participation in elections has This dependency makes it been low. This shortfall has increasingly likely that been identified and targeted disillusioned voters will by the IEC. However, given simply abstain from the the IEC's attempt to make up elections rather than support the rural deficit the drop in parties other than the registration rates in the North incumbent. This severely West is all the more limits the prospects for much disappointing. change in the political landscape of the province. The declining registration rates reflect the disappointing Campaigning economic conditions in the province. For example despite These factors also point to a a thriving mining industry likely focus on the upcoming centred on platinum, elections. Opposition parties employment opportunities will capitalise on have failed to grow as fast as disillusionment regarding job the population which is creation and associated issues currently growing at 2.8 (like crime). In turn, the ruling percent per year. South party is likely to emphasise its African platinum production role in the expansion of civil has now has surpassed gold in liberties and the provision of terms of value. Half of all the essential services. The latter countries jobs in the mining will now also list anti- sector are now located in retroviral provision for some North West Province. HIV/AIDS sufferers, drought Unfortunately the growth in relief and avidly accelerated mining employment has been land redistribution and “job offset by poor or negative creation” programmes. growth in other sectors. Over Obviously these are the past five years or so the essentially a reflection of the economically active concerns of the national population has been growing parties. Whether or not those at just under 3 percent per parties with a regional focus annum. During the entire are able to better target the

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KWAZULU-NATAL

A GROWING During the run up to the 1994 meanwhile launched its election KwaZulu-Natal election manifesto in the COMMITMENT presented itself as “the most KwaZulu-Natal province but TO serious instance of political it was amidst reports of obstruction of free vandalism disrupting its DEMOCRACY electioneering”8 Free campaign. The Natal Witness Kwazulu- canvassing in the province recorded that scores of ANC Natal in was impossible – a point electioneering posters were highlighted when two African destroyed by people clad in Focus National Congress (ANC) IFP T-Shirts.11 canvassers were murdered by Shauna Mottiar IFP members. By the 1999 Notwithstanding these early Independent Political Analyst election however the IFP signs of campaign disruption attempted to transform its no one is expecting severe A vital criterion in image from that of a Zulu political violence or determining the democratic nationalist and traditionalist intimidation around voting in consolidation of a political party to a party promoting KwaZulu-Natal. This may system is the occurrence of pluralism, freedom and ethnic signal a growing commitment 9 free, fair and frequent identity. In spite of this to democracy and democratic elections. Critics of what is however, canvassing by the processes whereby opposing termed “electoral democracy” ANC (the IFP’s strongest parties are content to conduct hasten to point out that opposition) was reported to themselves within South genuine consolidation of have been “discreet” in areas Africa’s democratic political 10 democracy has to extend of IFP domination. The framework and accept the beyond elections and the turn launch of the 2004 IFP outcome. Furthermore the over of power to encompass election manifesto stressing prominence given to the issue elements of liberal the need to address issues of of HIV AIDS in the IFP democracy. Components of HIV AIDS, economic growth, election manifesto is liberal democracy however unemployment, crime, interesting. I would argue that take time to become enshrined corruption and poverty could pressure and lobbying from a in a political system and in a signal an IFP move to growing band of social fairly new democracy such as advocate pressing social movements, in this case the South Africa’s election issues such as HIV AIDS TAC, is beginning to have an periods can be illustrative which have been brought to effect on South African with regards consolidation of the fore by a generation of political life. The TAC has civil liberties and new social movements such been very active in the constitutionalism. as the Treatment Action KwaZulu-Natal province and Campaign (TAC). The ANC has lately established links The KwaZulu-Natal province with the provincial 8 Lodge, T, Consolidating Democracy: department of health. This is a case in point. The last two South Africa’s Second Popular Election, general elections have seen it (1999), Witwatersrand University Press, means that an element of remain an Inkatha Freedom Johannesburg, p7. 9 Ibid, p84. Party (IFP) stronghold. 10 Ibid, p122. 11 The Witness, Friday January 23, 2004.

18 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 participatory democracy is quick to point out that the seats respectively. 13 The being established in the ANC was said to have been outcome of the upcoming country where citizens are considering an invocation of election for KwaZulu-Natal utilising civil society Section 100 of the has been described as “too organisations to voice their constitution providing for close to call”.14 Loss of the needs and it is beginning to national supervision of province for the IFP would have an effect on policy. provinces to prevent mean jeopardising its future dissolution of the provincial as a political force in South Apart from what has been parliament. Consolidating a Africa (it is currently termed a behavioural democracy constitutionally recognised by some opinion internalisation of democracy infers that governmental as polls as South Africa’s third whereby no significant actors well as non governmental biggest political party and are spending significant actors are subject and second most popular among resources to achieve their habituated to the resolution of black South Africans). It has objectives by non democratic conflict with in the bounds of long been asserted that despite means – there is also a democratic laws and displaying features of a constitutional internalisation procedures. While the floor modern political party, the to be considered.12 This, to a crossing legislation was IFP is still perceived as a Zulu degree, was illustrated by the passed in this manner, threats nationalist party with much of anti defection clause being by the ruling party to invoke its support based in rural parts reviewed last year at the further and severe powers of the province. Political constitutional court which may be considered contrary to theorist Steven Freidman resulted in the passing of the the spirit of constitutionalism. points out that the IFP should floor crossing legislation. This be concerned about declining legislation compounded the Subsequent to the floor support from outside its rural somewhat uncomfortable crossing debacle, the ANC constituencies owing to the ANC/IFP coalition agreement. has made clear its intention to level of urbanisation that is The ANC was forced to win control of KwaZulu-Natal taking place in South Africa. relinquish a retrospective in the upcoming election. The He adds that being a regional clause in the draft constitution legislature is currently finely political party is not so much fourth amendment bill that balanced between the ANC of a problem for the IFP as is would have given it control of and an IFP/Democratic the prospect of becoming the KwaZulu-Natal legislature Alliance (DA) coalition. The marginalised.15 in order to prevent the IFP took a majority in the province’s premier from province in the 1994 election Alongside the behavioural and tabling a dissolution motion. with 50.3% of the vote giving constitutional aspect of This would have resulted in it 41 seats in the legislature. In consolidating a democracy the need for fresh provincial the 1999 election it lost a exists an attitudinal aspect. elections. The ANC claimed substantial amount of support This involves the majority of that it had chosen to act to the ANC gaining only public opinion, even in the responsibly and avoid chaos 41.91% of the vote and 34 midst of crisis and in the province and, laudable seats. The ANC increased its dissatisfaction with as this may be, critics were support in the province between 1994 and 1999 with 32.2% of the vote and 26 seats 13 Independent Electoral Commission 12 Linz, J and Stepan, A, “Toward website – www.elections.org.za Consolidated Democracies”, Journal of and 39.47% of the vote and 32 14 Mail&Guardian, January16-22 2004. Democracy, April 1996. 15 Ibid.

19 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 incumbents, holding the belief Independent Electoral THE END OF that democratic procedures Commission (IEC) and institutions are the most conducting a series of youth KWAZULU- appropriate way to govern talks in collaboration with the NATAL AS WE collective life.16 Elections Youth Commission and the therefore would be the ideal Youth Council. Mosery KNOW IT? way for a citizen to access a claims that “given our Election democratic procedure either to logistical preparedness we Preparations in express support or have no doubt that we will the Context of a dissatisfaction with the ruling effectively service the Possible ANC party/opposition. Voting KwaZulu-Natal voters. The Victory. statistics and patterns may go only challenge we have is to some way to illustrating encourage those who are Laurence Piper citizens attitudes to apathetic to go and register as Senior Lecturer, Political democracy. KwaZulu-Natal voters.”18 Studies, University of has 5.5million potential voters KwaZulu-Natal. but only 3.4 million have so far registered to vote in the One of the greatest challenges 2004 election. This figure to democratic South Africa however is higher than that has been the rivalry between appropriated in January 1999 the ANC and IFP in when the province recorded KwaZulu-Natal. This is a 2000153 registered voters.17 rivalry which, even prior to the unbanning of the ANC in Voter inclination aside, it goes 1990, descended into violent without saying that election conflict for control of the preparations are vital in province. It was a rivalry that, ensuring free and fair by the eve of the 1994 ballot, elections. According to the had spurred on the IFP to province’s Chief Electoral embrace a militant Zulu Officer, Mawethu Mosery, nationalism. Today however, 3558 voting stations staffed this party rivalry has found by 10674 personnel have been more constructive expression secured throughout the in the legislatures, province for the purpose of governments and elections of voter registration on January our democracy. An important 24 and 25. He added that 2000 reason for this was the IFP’s voter education sessions had successes at the KwaZulu- been held throughout the Natal polls in 1994 and 1999. province in preparation for Along with inclusion in registration and some 53 000 national government, these posters distributed. The voting triumphs gave the party a youth had also been targeted major stake in the new in the province with the political system. In 2004 the

18 Khumalo, C, “IEC in KZN Urges IFP might well lose this stake 16 Linz, J and Stepan, A, op.cit. Voters to Register”, BUA News if, as appears likely, the ANC 17 Lodge, T, op.cit. p39. Online

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wins KwaZulu-Natal. This elections since 1994, but it whether a school or a clinic scenario poses three has done so at the expense of have come under ANC questions: Is the ANC likely the IFP by taking away its government, in stark contrast to win KwaZulu-Natal? What rural voters. Thus where the to the enduring poverty of will this mean for the ANC- ANC won less than 20% of thirty years of KwaZulu IFP rivalry, and how is this the rural vote in 1996 to the Administration associated being expressed in the IFP’s 77%, by 1999 the ANC with the IFP. preparations for the 2004 had improved to 27.54% as election? I will deal with each against the IFP’s 65.98%. Nevertheless, for the ANC to question in turn. Indeed in 2000 the ANC win KwaZulu-Natal in 2004 retained the same overall will require a carefully Why the ANC are support in rural areas, even thought-out, vigorous and Favourites in KwaZulu- doing better in the midlands focused effort. That the party Natal and the south of the province. is committed to this at the highest level was reflected in As illustrated below, the ANC The ANC’s real loses were in the decision to launch the has done better in every the towns where its supporters national election campaign in election since 1994 while the failed to turnout. This had the Pietermaritzburg, the ANC’s IFP has done worse – the one effect of pushing up the IFP proposed capital for exception being the 2000 and DA’s percentage of the KwaZulu-Natal. There are local government elections. vote. While some might read obstacles to the ANC’s However, the reason for this the 2000 results as a protest success however, not least the was that the low turnout of against the ANC, I think this rivalries between ANC urban ANC supporters in this presumes too much. It is leaders in KwaZulu-Natal. election. If the ANC worth remembering that 2004 Some observers have even campaigns properly in 2004 is a national election, not a questioned whether all there is no reason to assume local one, and this is the first provincial leaders stand to that they these voters will not time the ANC could win gain by the ANC winning return. KwaZulu-Natal. With the KwaZulu-Natal as the status stakes raised, the abstemious of some rests on their Party Percentages in ANC urban voters should ‘peacemaking’ role with the Elections in KwaZulu-Natal return. IFP. If the IFP loses 1994-2000 KwaZulu-Natal, especially if The reason behind the ANC’s it loses badly, then that role success in rural areas has becomes redundant. Murmurs Party 9 9 9 6 9 9 2000 much to do with the decline of of internal rivalries aside IFP 50.3 44.5 41.9 48.83 political violence. The party though, the ANC is well- ANC 32.2 33.2 39.4 33.79 was able to get access to rural placed in the province. N/NP* 11.2 12.7 3.3 * voters for the first time in DP*/ 2.2 3.3 8.2 13.3 DA 1996 and more so than in In contrast, the IFP is at its MF 1.3 2.3 2.9 1.26 1999 and 2000. Further the lowest ebb since 1994. Not * In 2000 the DP, NNP and Freedom ANC has a great advantage only has the party lost popular Alliance were conjoined as the over the IFP in that it is the support, but it has steadily Democratic Alliance (DA). party associated with delivery. shed leadership too. The most Not only has the ANC done The small improvements that recent example was the floor- better in KwaZulu-Natal have come to most rural areas crossing debacle in the

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KwaZulu-Natal legislature of transparent public realm That an ANC victory, or at early 2003. Here five where the media, NGO’s and least dominance, in KwaZulu- members of provincial even intellectuals can expose Natal will not result in parliament, including several and embarrass political renewed violence and from the IFP, crossed the leaders in front of voters. confrontation is indicated by floor to the ANC on the Today parties are far more the general peaceful and assumption that the national compelled to behave orderly nature of election government was going to themselves than in the past. preparations to date. For amend the floor-crossing In addition, both the ANC and instance, both Mbeki and legislation to legalise their IFP have enjoyed a stake in Buthelezi have affirmed the move. In response the IFP the new system. Where the importance of tolerance and premier, Lionel Mtshali, ANC won power nationally, peace during elections at their threatened to dissolve the IFP won KwaZulu-Natal. party campaign launches. In parliament and call an early An important part of this more general terms though, election, a move with huge ‘charming’ process was the the organisation of the financial and logistical ANC’s voluntary inclusion of election is proceeding as implications. Faced with these the IFP in national expected. costs the national ANC government and especially the backed down, and the parties recognition awarded to At the time of going to press agreed to keep the status quo Mangosuthu Buthelezi. It was the IEC in KwaZulu-Natal until the 2004 election. While not for nothing that both reported that voter registration the IFP may have shored up Mandela and Mbeki figures were at about 3.6 its provincial government periodically made Buthelezi million, roughly the same until then, the message is acting President. Key here level as in 1999, and they clear: the rats are deserting the was the realisation that where anticipated that the final ship. exclusion prompts rebellion, weekend of registrations inclusion breeds compliance, would push this figure even What Happens if the ANC and a compliant IFP is at a higher. According to the 2001 Wins? disadvantage. This is because, census there are an additional while the party wants to reach 2 million voters in the If the ANC wins KwaZulu- out to conservative-liberals of province, but even in 1994 Natal, or forms a coalition all races it has less offer them only 3.6 million voted, so the without the IFP, does this that other parties, especially IEC is happy with registration mean a return to violence and those like the DA and ANC levels. More significantly, the confrontation? I think not – at which have a significant key political parties indicated least not on a significant national presence. Further, the that the process of voter scale. One reason for this is IFP’s militant Zulu registration was generally free that it is much harder to nationalism of the and fair, although a few prosecute violence and negotiations period has scared incidents of intimidation were intimidation than it used to be. off many potential voters. reported by the IFP. Of course Since 1994 the country has Indeed the IFP finds itself in a all parties want their seen the slow return of law catch 22 situation. supporters to register so they and order with security forces share a common objective governed by a democratic Election Preparations around voter registration. constitution. Moreover, since 1994 we have a far more

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In respect of party registration the story is the same - so far NEWS FLASH! MORE PARTIES this has gone smoothly. The IEC does anticipate that the CONTESTING THE POLLS nomination of party As South Africa gears itself for candidates which happens two its third democratic elections this weeks after the announcement year – also its 10th anniversary of of the election date might be democratic rule – a record 144 more technically challenging political parties have registered however. Lastly, the IEC with the Independent Electoral reports that voter education is Commission to contest the proceeding well, with most election. effort going into fieldwork based programmes which Although the total far exceeds the number of parties that had create dialogue and registered prior to the 1999 interaction with ordinary elections, not all of those people. In KwaZulu-Natal the registered will make it to this IEC has 230 people doing year’s election. dialogue sessions at community meetings in every The IEC says they were in no municipality, and they position to know how many estimate to have held 15000 parties would finally contest the sessions to date. elections. That would depend on how many submit their election In sum then, election lists and pay the required fee after the election date is preparations confirm the view proclaimed by President Thabo that the intense rivalry Mbeki. between the ANC and IFP for victory in KwaZulu-Natal will Only a few partie s contest the not spell a return to violence election at national level while and confrontation. As the many are locally based parties election nears and tensions who are likely to contest at rise local conflicts might municipal level and some try erupt, but not as an organised their chances at the provincial and deliberate overall party level. strategy. Compelled and Prior to the 199 elections the charmed into the post- total number of parties that had apartheid political system the registered with the IEC IFP and the ANC are numbered 50 and those who competing the way parties do survived and contested the in democracies all over the national seats were only 16 world: fairly and freely. We Sowetan 30 January 2004 might finally be standing on the brink of a new era in KwaZulu-Natal politics.

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MORE THAN 20 MILLION ARE READY TO VOTE

More than 20 million South Africans are now listed on the national voters’ roll, the Independent Electoral Commission announced yesterday.

This was after 1,3 million people registered as voters last weekend, chief electoral officer Pansy Tlakula said in Pretoria.

Another 1,8 million people who had changed their addresses since the last election, made use of the opportunity on Saturday and Sunday to re-register in their new voting districts.

This was the last time the IEC had opened votin g stations for voter registration, but citizens could still register at their municipal electoral offices during business hours every weekday.

The IEC could be contacted toll- free on 0800-11-8000 for the addresses of local electoral offices. Voter registration would close on the day the President proclaims an election date.

Tlakula said people between the ages of 18 and 25 comprised nearly 60% of new registrations last weekend.

“There are perceptions of apathy among young people, but our figures point to the contrary,” she said. “But there is still scope for improvement.” Sapa 30 January 2004

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FREE STATE

ELECTORAL The election results are concluded that 81,6% of the tabulated as follows: vote would go to the ANC, PERSPECTIVE followed by the DA with Vote Cast Seats S ON FREE Party ‘94 ‘99 ‘94 ‘99 10,7% of the vote, AZAPO 1,038 881 381 ANC 24 25 with 2% and the NNP with STATE (76.6%) (80.8%) 7 664 58 163 1% of the vote. This 0 2 PROVINCE DP (0.6%) (5.3%) prediction would give the 81 662 22 996 2 1 FF (6.0%) (2.1%) ANC 25 seats in the 170 452 56 740 Angelique Harsant and NNP 4 2 legislature, the DA 3 seats and (12.6%) (5.2%) the NNP would lose the two Willem Ellis (Jones, B and Ballington, J. 1999: 26) University of the Free State seats it had won in 1999. The above table, therefore, AZAPO would gain one seat, Introduction indicates that there have been up from none in 1999. some interesting In order to report on current developments and shifts in The study makes no mention events in the Free State power among the opposition of the FF that had occupied leading up to the 2004 parties in the Free State. The seats in the legislature since elections it is important to Democratic Party has 1994, while AZAPO had provide a brief review of past increased in support since never really featured strongly elections in this region. 1994 and gained 2 seats in the during previous elections. The legislature, while the NNP FF commented that they were A Comparative Review of saw a decrease in support very upbeat regarding their the 1994/1999 Elections from 4 to 2 seats in 1999. The chances in the election, FF also experienced a decline especially seen in the light of In comparing the 1994 and in support from 2 to 1 seats in the positive results of a 1999 election results in the 1999. The ANC increased its number of by-elections held Free State, there were a few support from 24 seats to 25 in the province since 1999. interesting developments seats. Gender representation which occurred mainly within in the Free State was A Markinor/SABC study the context of opposition calculated at 23% in 1999. conducted during October and parties. The ANC still enjoys The prospects for 2004 will November 2003 provided an overwhelming majority but now be discussed. very similar results. The ANC an interesting point to bear in was predicted to garner 78% mind is that even though the Prospects for 2004 of the votes, with the DA ANC increased its majority following on 9 % and the from 77% in 1994 to 81% in A recent study conducted by NNP on 2%. The UDM, ID 1999 there was a decrease in the Human Sciences Research and ACDP were all predicted votes from 1,038 million in Council (HSRC) regarding to win 1% of electoral 1994 to 881381 in 1999. possible results for the 2004 support, with no mention election, produced some made of either AZAPO or the interesting projections as far FF. as the Free State was concerned. The study

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The HSRC study concluded Serious attention will have to Voter Registration that 96,2% of ANC supporters be given to the topic of voter were black, with 3,1% education in the province in Before the first voter coloured and 0,7% white. the run-up to the 2004 registration weekend held on Female voters predominated election, especially in the vast 8 and 9 November 2003, it in the ANC, making up 64% rural hinterland of the was estimated that about 65% of its voters, while 46% of the province. or 1,1 million of the 1,7 DA’s voters were female, million eligible voters in the with the majority of its A representative of the DA Free State had been support falling in the 35 – 49 commented that voter registered. The number of year age group. education was primarily the polling stations in the task of the IEC and that the province had been increased Voter Education DA was not currently to 1 062 in order to avoid the concentrating on voter long queues encountered Enquiries made to the education except in the during the 1994 and 1999 provincial co-ordinator of Eastern Free State. A elections. Polling stations SANGOCO revealed that no representative of the ANC in have been distributed among NGOs had been contacted by the Free State stated that the 291 wards under the control the IEC to become involved in party had initiated its own and supervision of 189 area the presentation of voter voter education programmes managers. The bulk of these education programmes. This throughout the Free State. area managers are made up of could be a worrying factor as municipal officials, with only NGOs and CBOs had always An IEC correspondent four municipal managers formed the backbone of voter indicated that due to a lack of among their number. education programmes in the funds the IEC will not be Free State during previous employing NGOs for the Shortly before the registration elections. Voter education and purpose of voter education but weekend, Mr. Chris Mepha, its impact will remain that the municipal officers the provincial electoral sensitive topics, especially in have recruited IEC officer, commented that the light of the small numbers fieldworkers who were trained polling stations were very of people usually reached by the IEC. There were 149 accessible as most of them during voter education drives. fieldworkers recruited in the were situated at schools. Only Free State for this purpose. 98 polling stations were of a The following figure throws temporary nature and of these, some light on IEC funded Party Registration 43 were in the areas of voter education workshops Bloemfontein, Botshabelo and held in the run-up to the 1999 The political parties are Thaba Nchu. He further election: finalising the compilation of mentioned that the IEC their candidate’s lists. The planned to concentrate on the Number of IEC-projects in IEC representative indicated 193 polling stations with a the Free State province: registration figure of lower that no significant changes are Potential 1 786 371 expected in the 2004 list of than 60%. vote rs Contracts awarded 27 political parties as compared Workshops 505 to the 1999 lists. During the registration People 23 417 weekend of 8 and 9 reached Ave. workshop size 46 November 2003, (Camay, P. & Gordon, A. 2000:130) approximately 278 933 voters

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(84 600 on 8 November and voter registration weekend of Bloemfontein, an ANC party 194 332 on 9 November) were 24 and 25 January 2004. The agent wearing an ANC T-shirt registered by the IEC. This IEC reported that 306 486 was apparently allowed to fill not only included voters new registration applications in forms for potential voters, registering for the first time, had been received nationally with the electoral officers but also voters who had and that 345 922 applications nowhere to be found. This located to new towns and had for re-registration had been incident was reported to the to register in new wards. A received. Interestingly enough IEC in Mangaung. further 278 000 Free Staters 61,3% (187 887) of the new also used the opportunity to applications received were in General Perspectives check their information on the the 18 – 25 age group – an IEC’s voters’ lists. age group that were earlier The voter registration process described as apathetic towards has been completed and the The Mangaung and the elections and politics in IEC expects that the results Matjabeng areas of the general. Perhaps some of the should be in by the week province were the only areas requests from prominent ending on the 31 January. to lag somewhat with politicians and political Political parties now registration, even though they parties for the youth to anxiously await the final had large numbers of eligible register had not fallen on deaf election date and the election voters. In Mangaung 68 151 ears. timetable to be compiled by voters were registered and 59 the IEC. The political parties 121 checked their details with Some of the problems are currently focused on the IEC and in Matjabeng 33 encountered in the candidate nominations and 193 voters registered and 27 Bloemfontein area included campaigning processes. There 103 checked their details with computers that were off-line, are numerous factors, which the IEC. broken scanners and limited will influence the outcome of IEC staff members at crucial the 2004 election results, such Some of the problems voting stations. The latter as insufficient voter encountered and reported by problem was rectified with the education, voter apathy and the ANC, DA and FF during reallocation of personnel from changes in the internal the registration weekend other voting stations in the dynamics of political parties. included polling stations area. During consultations with the opening late, broken scanners, various political parties, too few or no registration The DA voiced its concerns institutions and stakeholders forms and stickers, language regarding changes in ward the feedback and perspectives problems, too few or no demarcations that had not concerning the forthcoming Afrikaans forms, a lack of been communicated to voters elections were positive and well trained IEC personnel, or that had not been followed they are all committed to the lost names on registration lists by re-registration of voters. entrenchment of a democratic and user-unfriendly voting Further concerns during this culture in the Free State stations. Access to the website registration weekend included province. of the IEC was also limited inadequate numbers of due to overloading. Afrikaans forms, untrained IEC personnel and voting Thousand of Free Staters stations opening late. At St. again made use of the second Michaels School in

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th th OPERATION The weekend of 24 and 25 of the assistance where January 2004 was the last necessary. The SAPS made a REGISTRATIO chance for people to register full presentation of how they N as voters, and the turnout was were going to provide security An Assesment of impressive. In the Free State, throughout the process. On Voter more people registered, the other hand, the Youth Registration in particularly women and the Commission had a youth. This was expected responsibility to explore the Free State because of the effort made by strategies on how to attract the Dr Choice Makhetha the IEC, and the partnership youth. Music would be one University of the Free State formed with the different method of entertainment. The stakeholders, especially the IEC came out confident of the different political parties and co-operation they were going The spirit of elections is the Free State Youth to receive. Voter awareness gaining momentum and Commission, not leaving out program rolled out, covering excitement is building up in the Provincial departments. all the 20 municipalities in the the air. The Independent 5 districts of the Free State. Electoral Commission (IEC) For a young democracy like The IEC had the slogan has been working around the South Africa, this is a positive “Rocking the Free State!” and clock to make sure that the step. It shows that the people it really worked for them. Voters’ Roll will be in place are starting to value the power Pamphlets and other on time, for the 2004 general of a vote and they realise that campaigning materials were elections. the right to vote is not just a distributed and that was a For an election to take place right, but it carries with it a success. there has to be a common sense of responsibility and voters’ roll. Voters act as responsiveness. It also At this particular “Election responsible citizens to ensure indicates a great improvement Indaba”, the Provincial that they can vote when the on public participation in Electoral Officer, Chris time comes. They register as general. Mepha, stated that there were voters so as to exercise the 1,8 million eligible voters in right; the power to influence In October 2003, the the Free State and about 1,1 policy is in their hands. Independent Electoral million had already registered. Commission, in the Free Therefore, there was about The power of a vote is State, held an “Election 700 000 still to register as tremendous and until voters Indaba”. All stakeholders voters. These figures indicate realise that, and use it to their were invited and the response the level of commitment benefit, democracy will was enormous. Political shown by voters. In 1999, continue to be tested. Public parties pledged their support there were 1 225 730 participation is one of the to the IEC for the whole registered voters in the Free pillars of a democracy. It election process. These parties State and 90% thereof voted. needs to be strengthened by promised to urge and remind For the 2004 elections, there getting people involved in their members to register as number is bound to increase. matters that affect them, voters and check if their Democracy is strengthening in starting with voter particulars were correctly many ways. Voters are ready registration. recorded. The provincial and prepared to participate in departments assured the IEC issues that affect their

28 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 livelihoods and they have At the end of registration, on There has been a request, that taken a bold decision to make 25 January 2004, 259 022 the IEC should not be a contribution to this voters had registered the two dormant (hibernate) after the democracy. They want their days, and 250 272 had come elections. Democracy would voices heard and this is the to check whether they were benefit from continuous way to go. correctly registered. The Free education efforts, if only State province gained enough resources were As stated earlier, the 24th and tremendously from this last availed for that purpose. 25th January 2004 weekend round. Although the final By the time the election is was the last opportunity to figure is not out yet, it shows proclaimed, all the register as voter. This last that a high percentage of participating parties should round turned out as a success. voters have registered. Now, have two copies of the Management of registration the challenge is to get all the common voters’ roll. This is stations was very efficient, as registered voters to actually to ensure that the process is reported by the IEC. The vote. efficient. process was smooth and peaceful. Political parties It is necessary to continue in The IEC has worked very gave full co-operation, as the fight against voter apathy hard to remain within promised and that made the and voter uncertainty. schedule. For registration to job even more manageable. Communication should reach take place, a lot of preparation the people. Better ways of is done. Staff had to be For the whole registration communication should be appointed and trained. The process, 1063 registration used to educate the illiterate necessary materials had to be stations were open and 3186 communities and those in the printed, for campaigning and registration officers were rural areas. Voter education the general administration on appointed. The issue of and political education are the days of registration. All distance travelled to necessary to deepen and the logistics were covered and registration points was also strengthen democracy. Voters the process still managed to considered. That was to should be clear about the rules run smoothly. The role of IEC ensure that all the points were and all that is required of in the whole process of accessible, to achieve them and also know the elections is critical. It needs to maximum registrations. political parties and their have the following: the manifestos. An informed objectivity and fairness Among the challenges facing society, prepared to required for the role, the the IEC, is the need for participate and influence clarity when it comes to constant campaigning; policy, can make such a regulations governing the educating and making people contribution towards electoral process and the aware of the importance of sustaining democracy. commitment to serve the registering as a voter and Political parties, the IEC and country and the province. The eventually voting. New voters other stakeholders, should stakeholders in the Free State, would actually benefit from share in this responsibility of acknowledged the top quality such campaigning and more educating the masses. These service received from the people would be more feelings were also shared by Provincial Electoral Officer informed. many political parties in the and his team. Political parties Free State, as they expressed appreciated the accessibility some of their frustrations. and efficiency of the team.

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The quality of service was confirmed by the great support the IEC received throughout the registration process.

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WESTERN CAPE

LOOKING BACK The Western Cape Province is Institutionally, the IEC has AND STEPPING that area bounded by developed a reputation for Vredendal to the North West, competence and delivering FORWARD IN Beaufort West to the North elections that are “free and THE East and Plettenberg Bay in fair.” In 1994 their challenge WESTERN the East. It consists of 25 was to speedily municipalities and 5 institutionalise an independent CAPE demarcated municipal areas electoral body and hold (DMA’s). The Municipal elections in a highly Cheryl Hendricks Demarcation Board (MDB) politically charged Centre for Conflict Resolution has divided the province into atmosphere. During the 1999 330 wards. The IEC, in elections they had to sell the South Africa is in the voter consultation with political use of a new technologically registration phase of elections parties, has delimited 1348 sophisticated election system in gearing up for its third voting districts in the to the people and educate National Democratic province. For the voter them with regard to process. elections. Political parties registration campaign, the In 2004 their greatest eagerly await the date on IEC trains 3 persons per challenge is to get voters to which these elections are to be voting district whilst 10-12 the polling booths in high held. It is to be announced by persons are required for the percentages. The IEC has over the President on the 11 national elections. Thus far, 2 the past few years been February 2004. The weekend 067 505 persons out of a engaged in voter education. of 24 and 25 January is that of potential of 2 982 399 have Through the IEC’s Electoral the second voter registration registered in the Western Democracy Development and drive. The Independent Cape. The IEC has conducted Education unit they have Electoral Commission (IEC) an intensive voter registration targeted educators training hopes to substantially reduce campaign using them to impart to learners the the shortfall between 27.4 advertisements in the media, knowledge, skills and million eligible voters and the primarily targeted at the attitudes required to 19.4 million that have youth, flyers, billboards and consolidate democracy. They registered thus far. Political house to house visits. It has to have also trained many campaigning has, however, contend with what is community representatives to begun with political parties commonly referred to as conduct voter education releasing their manifestos, “voter apathy” (especially employing the strategies of election jingles blaring amongst the youth), high house visits and public through our stereos, mass levels of people movement meetings that are geared at rallies being held and party which affects their voting informing people of their right placards decorating our lamp district, and the fact that many and necessity to express their posts. What does the electoral still do not have their identity preference for governance. landscape look like for the documents despite Home The populace is largely Western Cape? Affairs speedily processing familiar with the procedures these for free. of voting. However, a question mark can still be

31 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 placed on their ability to make ANC, too, increased its share are, however, now joined by informed voting choices. of the vote obtaining 42% of two new parties, the the ballots cast for provincial Independent Democrats (ID), The Western Cape has elections. Support for the formed by Patricia De Lille, a acquired a politically New National Party has been former Pan African Congress conservative reputation on a steady decline in the leader and the New Labour because of voting patterns in Western Cape. According to Party (NLP) of Peter Marais, the 1994 and 1999 elections. a Markinor Survey conducted former premier for the NNP. The province consists of 4 during October and November The ID is likely to put in a 524 316 million people, 2 438 2003, the NNP’s support is strong showing (the Markinor 963 Coloured (54%), 1 207 now around 15%. The DA survey, cited above, places 422 African (27%), 832 947 support has increased to 16% their support at 10%) White (18%) and 45 026 and the ANC dropped to 32%. attracting many of the people Asian (0.9%) according to The ANC and NNP, however, who previously voted NNP Census 2001 (which is known entered into an alliance in and DP. De Lille is known to to have many flaws but October 2001 and, with their be a black woman with comprises the statistics with votes pooled together, they integrity and admired for her which the IEC is working). hope to retain control of the role in exposing the This is a unique demographic Western Cape. The New corruption around the arms pattern for South Africa and National Party’s dwindling deal. Marais has been voting patterns, which in support base can be attributed surrounded by scandals of previous elections were to its lack of a charismatic sexual harassment and largely race based, are a leader, lack of a principally corruption, but has secured a reflection of this distribution based identity (as indicated by captured audience as he is of the people in the province. its alliances) and to its campaigning during church In the 1994 provincial blurring of the distinctions services on the Cape Flats. elections the National Party between itself and the ANC. It was able to secure nearly two had largely obtained a The ANC has already entered thirds of the White and substantial support base in the election mode in the province Coloured votes giving them a province through appealing to with a slightly tarnished majority of 53% and therefore ethnocentric attitudes. With image. During the drawing up control of the provincial the race-card no longer its of the party list a report was legislature. The ANC was trump card, the NNP will released noting that there only able to attract 33% of the struggle to retain it previous were 3 factions within the votes, whilst the Democratic support base. regional branch, namely, the Party lagged far behind with “Africanist Agenda,” 6.6%. In the 1999 elections, The Western Cape remains a “Christian Nationalists” and the New National Party’s highly contested area. The the “Middle Path” allegedly (NNP) proportion of the ANC has announced that it is headed by the provincial ANC ballots dropped substantially going all out to secure the two leader, Ebrahim Rasool. to 38%, whilst the DP “renegade” provinces, Lynne Brown, the speaker of increased theirs to 12%. They Western Cape and Kwa-Zulu the provincial assembly was formed an alliance, the Natal. The ANC, NNP and placed at the top of the Democratic Alliance (DA), DA remain the major political “Africanist Agenda” faction’s and together were able to hold parties competing for political list. Although it is proclaimed onto the Western Cape. The power in the province. They that the differences have been

32 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 resolved and Ebrahim Rasool over the next five years will vigour as we move into the is the candidate for premier be geared towards ensuring election phase. Who will sway for the Western Cape, Trevor continued growth of the the hearts and minds of the Manuel, at a recent rally in economy; to create more than masses in the Western Cape Athlone, lambasted the ANC a million jobs; to complete the we have yet to see. For, unlike representatives in the region land restitution process; to other provinces, the outcome for “factionalism” and provide access to services; to of the elections in the Western “tribalism” and for seeking to deploy more police; to foster Cape is far from pre- enrich themselves at the accountable governance; to determined. expense of the majority (cited create more synergy between in the Weekend Argus, 10 the three levels of government January 2004). The and to continue to strengthen differences between the its ties with the rest of Africa factions appear to be more and the world. The DA, around strategy for the feeling somewhat elections, key of which is who outmanoeuvred by the ANC’s should be the in the leadership public broadcasting of its position to attract the manifesto, is concentrating its “coloured vote”. It is believed efforts on showing the that more Coloured women discrepancies between ANC vote for the ANC and the party promises in 1999 and its elevation of Lynne Brown delivery; the AIDS issue, could be seen in the light of where it can capitalize on the this. Furthermore, the recent blunders made by the ANC leaks that the ANC has not led government, and on paid its accounts and the fighting crime. The ID has suspension of its provincial launched an access to spindoctor, Gert Witbooi, for education initiative in which it leaking this to the press does is assisting parents whose not bode well for its children have been barred campaign. from school because of an inability to pay the fees. The The major issues in the NLP asserts that it will sell Western Cape resemble those state land to people at 1966 of the rest of the country, prices, while the NNP is crime, corruption, seeking to broaden its base unemployment, user-fees, into the other provinces where housing, aids and access to it hopes it can “share the land. These are then also government in Kwa-Zulu highlighted in the party Natal” and distance itself manifestos. The ANC, riding from the “fight back style of on the jubilation of 10 years opposition” to more of an of democracy largely approach of “sharing” (cited attributed to its liberation in Weekend Argus, 19 January struggle and governance, has 2004). These campaigns will outlined that its objectives gain more substance and

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EASTERN CAPE

REFLECTION Cape and KwaZulu Natal standards - but still registered Province. a massive 74% majority. This S, decrease was due to the PROJECTION This view embodied in emergence of the (UDM). predictions in the 1994, 1999 S ON THE and now the 2004 elections, The following figures from EASTERN primarily is that the SABC/Markinor 2004 and CAPE dominance of the ANC is HSRC 2003 surveys underline guaranteed. that this trend will continue in Dr Thabisi Hoeane 2004. Rhodes University The exercise, it is argued, rather than being a contest Table 1: Projected figures of between competitors with the Eastern Cape Provincial Introduction likelihood of the incumbent Results party being defeated, revolves (December 2003/January As the election date nears, it is on how much power the ANC 2004) pertinent to reflect on the is to gain and to what extent process and its likely opposition parties can retain Political SABC/ HSRC Parties Markinor % outcome. This Eastern Cape their support. % review is an appraisal of the ANC 71 84.2 1994/1999 elections and This view is accurate when UDM 10 6.8 projections for 2004 focusing applied to the Eastern Cape as DA 7 5.7 on the issues that are likely to the ANC is tipped to retain an NNP 2 1.6 dominate party political overwhelming majority with PAC 2 * the opposition weakening. *Less than one per cent. campaigns. It also discusses (SABC/Markinor Opinion 2004, the electoral framework in the released January 2004, and HSRC, province. For opposition parties, South African Social Attitudes especially the official Survey, released December 2003)

Review of 1994, 1999 and opposition, the United Democratic Movement The HSRC estimates the ANC 2004 Projections will regain its strength of (UDM), the challenge is how effectively it will retain its 1994, at 84%. The UDM will A specific feature of South remain as the official African electoral politics is tenuous support, given the heavy losses it suffered in opposition, albeit at a reduced that it could be described as a percentage of 10 % process that offers much of floor crossing in 2003 that nearly caused it national (SABC/Markinor) and 6.8 % the same. Although this (HSRC) as against its strength should not be overstated at the annihilation. of 13.6 % in 1999. The DA risk of over simplification and and NNP will remain weak, a misreading of salient trends, In 1994, the ANC won 84 % with the NP second at 10 %. especially the latter. it largely holds true with the exception of the Western In 1999, the ANC lost a staggering 10% - by both The PAC’s waning fortunes, national and provincial and its possible disappearance

34 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 from the South African retrenchment of workers, by empathically emphasising political radar screen is likely especially civil servants. Holomisa's Bantustan to continue, with the HSRC However, opposition parties background. according it less than 1% have been unable to take support. advantage of these problems Another shortcoming the The significance of these and the critical issue to UDM, was its inability to figures is the absence of the address the reasons why. draw a distinct policy from IFP as a player in Eastern that of the ANC. Analysts Cape politics, which quite Regarding the UDM, which have pointed out this remarkable given its national arose as the main challenger limitation in most South profile. It appears that the to the ANC in 1999, its African opposition parties. It trend that the IFP concentrates problem was its identification focused on minor differences on KwaZulu Natal and with the former Transkei with the ANC over issues like Gauteng will continue in Bantustan. Furthermore, the corruption, maladministration 1994. preponderance of former and so on, which were clearly white NP ministers in its not the creation of the ANC, The Issues in 2004 upper echelons fueled its but an apartheid legacy. unpopularity. Ironically, this The ANC’s dominance results worked as a double-edged The UDM’s economic largely from the failure of sword for the party. At a differences with the ANC are opposition parties to articulate positive level, the UDM over implementation, not policies that are different from gained support from those basics. The underlying that of the ruling party. This is areas of the former Transkei message is that most South especially so with regard to by chiefly extolling the African parties have moved to economic policy, which is credentials of Bantu Holomisa the centre in terms of arguably the most likely as leader under the homeland economic vision, and do not terrain on which South system. This was especially so challenge the ANC African voters can be offered in urban areas such as Umtata, fundamentally - despite the choice. where it won a majority. This criticisms on policy was due to support from the implementation. The Eastern Cape’s legacy is former recipients of Bantustan serious poverty and the political patronage, especially This means there is little to administrative problems that civil servants who were choose between opposition resulted from the retrenched under parties and the ANC. And the establishment of new rationalisation of the bloated latter, because of its government systems out of civil services of Transkei and incumbency, strength and the amalgamation of the Ciskei by the ANC. The liberation credentials, gains former Bantustans of Ciskei negative aspect of this image most voters’ support. and Transkei with the Cape stressed these successes Provincial Administration. conjuring up the Bantustan The other central issue of system and its vagaries, Eastern Cape politics centres This led to serious dislocation especially for people in rural on traditional leaders and in government, exemplified in and peri-urban areas who which party best represents problems such as corruption, were not recipients of their interests. Although maladministration, Bantustan patronage. Thus the Holomisa effectively unemployment, the ANC was to gain from this, exploited this in 1999, the

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ANC also came across as very At best, the NNP is youth dimensions. In gender strong in this regard. concentrating on winning the terms, the current figures Western Cape, at worst being indicate that close to half a The projection of powerful in coalition with the ANC. million more women (450 political families such as the The DA is aligning with the 000) have registered than Mandela’s, who have strong IPF in KwaZulu Natal against men. What is going to be traditionalist roots coupled the ANC and is preoccupied interesting is to see how with their liberation on maintaining its support in political parties are going to credentials, made for the Western Cape. The IFP is factor issues affecting women formidable adversaries. clearly not interested in the into their campaigns. Eastern Cape, whereas the On liberation politics, the small parties are highly In terms of the youth, the ANC has a well-entrenched unlikely to worry the ANC. Eastern Cape’s figures legacy of legitimacy around emphatically rebuff the apathy families such as that of the The Electoral Framework argument. Although Sisulu and Mbeki clans, for registration figures do not example, who were The acerbic criticism against translate into election turnout, maximally used to projects the handling of the 1994 the way the youth have the progressive credentials of election by the Independent responded is quite dramatic. the ANC in the province. Electoral Commission (IEC), which improved its They show that the 20-39 Thus, although other electoral performance in 1999, is likely group comprises 45% of issues like crime, jobs, to dissipate in 2004 both registered voters. Strikingly, it corruption are going to nationally and provincially. is the 20-29 age group - the present themselves in the very group that various campaign, it is likely to be In the Eastern Cape, the analyses stress is not dominated once again by preparations for the election interested in politics that debates over traditional given that the second phase of shows the most enthusiasm to leaders and liberation the drive is not factored into vote - comprising 25% of credentials. this analysis, look quite registered voters. impressive. Because of the ANCs strong Hence the media, analysts and background on both fronts, it With respect to the public commentators should is highly unlikely, as enthusiasm of voters, despite seriously revisit this opposition polls indicate, that the misgivings of apathy, the challenged notion that South the UDM is going make situation is very appealing. By African youth are politically significant inroads into its the second election drive, the apathetic. support. In fact the UDM will IEC had registered 2.76 be fighting for its survival in million voters out of an In terms of the IEC itself, it this election, rather than estimated 3.6 million voters - has deployed 12 342 consolidating its power, and 77 per cent of those eligible. personnel at 4118 voting let alone displacing the ANC. Thus the situation can only stations for the second improve. registration drive which is an Focusing on historically white impressive figure. Given that parties, they have arguably The importance of these about 800 000 eligible voters given up on the Eastern Cape. figures is their gender and still have to register, it is not

36 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 unreasonable to conclude that this target, coupled with the enthusiasm displayed by voters, will be achieved.

Thus, although depressingly the election is regarded as a foregone conclusion, the province can draw deserved comfort from the positive trends indicated in the civic responsibility of its citizens to register, especially the youth. If only the contest was going to be about real choice…

NEWSFLASH! ANC TO INTENSIFY EC CAMPAIGN By Eric Naki, Political Editor

EAST LONDON - The African National Congress in the Eastern Cape is to intensify its election campaign in the province and has deployed top-level leadership to mobilise voters in the region until the election. This was one of the decisions taken at the party's two-day provincial lekgotla held here at the weekend.

The meeting came out with a two-month programme of action in which members of the national executive committee and provincial leadership are deployed to visit all the regions of Amathole, Cacadu, OR Tambo, Chris Hani, Ukhahlamba, Alfred Nzo and Nelson Mandela. Provincial spokesperson Phaki Hobongwana said NEC members Saki Macozoma and Lindiwe Sisulu also attended. Hobongwana said the movement reviewed the work that had been done already. He said in all the areas visited people inquired about various issues which were clarified including land reform, affirmative action and cultural heritage.

The party's election report was endorsed as good progress. “We have to ensure that we mobilise all our structures and the masses of the province behind the ANC.” Hobongwana expressed concern over the last voter registration figures which were below 80percent in the municipal areas of Mnquma, Buffalo City, Nyandeni, Nelson Mandela Metro, Mbashe, Camdeboo, Blue Crane, Ndlambe, Baviaans and Koukamma. "These areas we still need to target to ensure that more people register." The lekgotla agreed that all municipalities should be pushed to register beyond 85percent of the potential voters. In the run-up to the elections, the ANC will put much energy on undecided voters by addressing their concerns while it mobilises all its members to go to the polls. The organisation resolved to try to break new ground by addressing racial and class patterns in its support. Party liaison committee representatives will be instructed to engage the Independent Electoral Commission in addressing problems encountered during the January24-25 registrations.

Hobongwana said that, during the action programme, which runs until mid-March, themes to be addressed include consolidating the ANC social base, reaching undecided voters, mobilising unregistered voters to register, popularising the ANC manifesto, focusing on sectors and holding community meetings and organising rallies in Umtata.

Hobongwana said the lekgotla resolved that it is the leadership's responsibility to keep the momentum high as the election nears and to synchronise the organisation's work at all levels. “No-one must fall behind; we need everyone in the forefront,” he said.

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Daily Dispatch, 3 February 2004 - http://www.dispatch.co.za/2004/02/03/Easterncape/eec.html

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MPUMALANGA

THE some factions in the party’s A number of factors explain provincial structures saw him this situation. Firstly, the ELECTION unable to gather enough institutional weakness of the ARENA support to win the party’s opposition parties in Mpumalanga chair position. Also, soon Mpumalanga is a critical Province in after Mahlangu became factor. Added to this is the the Spotlight premier, the province newly formed cooperative descended into further alliance between the ANC and Thabo Rapoo political instability and the NNP, which only serves to Centre for Policy Studies administrative chaos, weaken the critical voices of culminating in a R318 million the opposition even further. Background and Context debt in 2000. The national They have failed to capitalise treasury had to intervene early on the ANC’s internal As the 2004 general elections approach, the Mpumalanga in 2001 to halt the rot by political problems in the province appears bailing out the province to the province and the widespread comparatively stable, both tune of R300m. coverage of corruption and politically and economically. mismanagement of state However, the political resources. For instance, there During the period leading up problems besetting are only four opposition to the 1999 elections, the Mpumalanga do not seem to parties represented in the province was wracked by have affected the electoral provincial legislature – the internecine political infighting dynamics of the province UDM, DA, NNP and within the ruling party, significantly. For instance, the Freedom Front. All four have compounded by pervasive failure to create conditions for very small electoral support administrative corruption and stable governance in the early bases, especially within the widespread negative media years of the province’s black majority that constitutes coverage. Intervention from existence has clearly not hurt approximately 83% of the the ANC national leadership the ANC’s electoral prospects province’s population. The led to the first Mpumalanga in the province. The province white, mainly Afrikaans premier Matthews Phosa remains an electoral strong- speaking, voting population being deposed, and instead, hold for the ruling ANC, makes up about 11% of the imposed a former homeland which has run the provincial electorate. This is where most leader, Ndaweni Mahlangu. government with of the electoral support of the This did not appear to stem overwhelming majorities DA, Freedom Front and NNP the internal party strife. (80.7% in 1994 and 84.9% in will come, with the DA likely Neither did it sort out the 1999) since 1994. Recent to take the biggest share. The resultant instability within the opinion polls by the HSRC ANC and UDM draw their institutions of governance. In and Markinor/SABC predict support almost exclusively fact, the arrival of the new another crushing victory in from the black majority in the premier resulted in even more the 2004 elections for the province. Coloureds and factional strife within the ANC in the province. Indians constitute a very small provincial ANC. The new proportion of the voting premier’s unpopularity with population and, according to

39 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 the HSRC South African throughout the country, could within the provincial ANC, Social Attitudes Survey instil a sense of fatalism and the ever-present spectre (2003), they are likely to vote among the electorate, and of official corruption and for the opposition, especially generate a view that there is mismanagement in the the DA and NNP. Another no alternative to the ANC. provincial government of party that shares a common Also, the ANC in the province Mpumalanga, political and predominantly black has begun to focus energies stability and confidence electoral support base with the on development and speeding appear to be slowly returning. ANC is the IFP (not up the delivery of basic social In a recent interview with the represented in the legislature). services in spite of the recent Sowetan, premier Mahlangu revelations of chaotic reflects on his tenure of office Secondly, voting in administration and near and appears upbeat that Mpumalanga is racially collapse of service delivery in Mpumalanga has turned the divided, with the the health sector. The ANC corner. He points to a number predominantly white political has been able to maintain of factors to explain what he parties drawing their support close ties, and a significant sees as a turnaround: the fact from with the small white presence in local communities that a new and decentralised electorate, whilst the black throughout Mpumalanga, financial management system political parties draw their through a network of has been put in place to electoral support from the community based overcome the financial majority black electorate. This Parliamentary Constituency problems that characterised trend was clearly evident in Offices (PCOs). As a ruling the early days of his the previous two elections and party, the ANC appears to administration; the creation of is likely to hold for the next have used its comparative an anti-corruption Toll Free election. It means that the institutional and line in the province and the major predominantly white organisational advantage over increasing prosecution or opposition parties in the other parties to strengthen its dismissals of corrupt province are unlikely to make reach into the province’s rural administrative officials in the serious inroads into the communities to establish its province. He believes that ANC’s support base. This is foothold. For instance, since more resources will now be compounded by the electoral 2000, the party has redirected to building and weakness of the established more PCOs upgrading the province’s predominantly black throughout the province than infrastructure. In addition to opposition parties such as the any other party and these all this, it has recently been UDM and the IFP in the structures have enabled the revealed that Mpumalanga’s province. This leaves the party to engage in a variety of economy is one of the fastest ANC largely unchallenged, community development growing in the country, with a especially among the black activities including campaigns strong contribution from the voters, in Mpumalanga. for ID registrations and tourism sector. All this encouraging people to register appears to have engendered a The third important factor is for social welfare grants and new sense of confidence simply the incumbency factor. other social support within the ANC in the The advantage of having been programmes. province. In a recent interview in power for almost ten years, with SAFM, ANC combined with a weak Despite the recurrent political Mpumalanga provincial opposition not only within squabbles and factionalism Secretary Lucas Mello argued Mpumalanga but also

40 election update 2004 · south africa · number 1 that the party has done enough for social services, Media reports and other over the past nine years to Siphosezwe Masango. Some accounts suggest significantly secure a comfortable victory commentators take this to higher levels of voter in the 2004 general elections. indicate a certain level of registration occurring discontent among the party especially in the rural areas of For the ANC in Mpumalanga, faithful in the province. The the province than in urban it is not whether or not the placing of the sitting premier areas. This is not surprising party will win but by what in second place (as well as in however. It could merely margin. Also, the size of the first place on the party’s reflect a national trend victory will be determined by province-to-national list) may reported in recent opinion voter turnout as well as how be a message to the national surveys that suggest that satisfied the voters are with leadership that someone with South Africans in the rural the party’s service delivery a strong local support base areas are responding in larger track record in the province within the party should numbers to voter registration The party is well aware of the replace the current unpopular campaigns and show more potentially deleterious effects premier. willingness to vote in the next on voters of the continuing general election than those in internal squabbles within the Election 2004: Activities and the country’s urban areas. party leadership in the Processes in Mpumalanga. However, it is also important province. Also, effective to note that since 2001, there service delivery at local level By all accounts, have been well-coordinated in the province continues to Mpumalanga’s preparations voter education and awareness encounter serious setbacks towards the 2004 elections campaigns in the rural areas due to severe lack of appear to have been smoother of Mpumalanga to encourage institutional capacity, skills than in 1999. In terms of voter potential voters and members shortages, poor financial registration, the IEC also of the rural communities in management and corruption in appears reasonably satisfied. general to apply for identity many local authorities The IEC’s Mpumalanga documents as well as to throughout the province. Provincial Election Officer, register for voting. These issues may weigh Steve Ngwenya, expressed heavily on the minds of voters satisfaction with the turnout In addition to the critical role in the province as the election during the first round of played by the IEC and looms larger, and could affect registrations on November 8th political parties in voter voter turnout. It would appear and 9th in 2003. The IEC education and registration therefore that the loyalty of indicated that a total of 317 campaigns in the province, a the ANC’s support base 687 people registered at 1128 number of other key players should not be taken for (up from 1 023 in 2000) have been involved. These granted, especially if the stations throughout the include the government’s party’s provincial list province during the first communication and conference held in Badplaas, round. Also, a total of information service (GCIS) as Mpumalanga, in October 1.5million people have well as the provincial 2003 is to be taken as an registered in the province so Department of Sports, Arts indicator. For instance, the far, 200 000 more than in the and Culture. For instance, this party delegates placed the 1999 election. department has conducted current provincial premier in largely effective voter second place, below the MEC education campaigns in

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Mpumalanga, enlisting the enlisted the logistical support to be read at morning assistance of well-known and assistance of the South assemblies and gatherings, artists and performers to take African National Defence and for discussions with voter education messages Force in the 1999 voter pupils in classrooms to urge mainly to the rural villages registration process. A the youth to register. It’s not and farm areas. This appears number of areas such as yet clear so far how effective to have had a positive effect Lydenburg, Ogies and this highly targeted strategy on intended audiences. The Middleburg were affected by has been. Also, a significant IEC in Mpumalanga has also logistical problems at voter number of people across indicated that the farming registration stations, with Mpumalanga are still without community in the area, many stations failing to open ID documents, but most of especially Agri-Mpumalanga, due to late or non-arrival of these appear to be applicants has made positive voter registration officials and who have not bothered to contributions to the voter volunteer workers. collect their identity education and registration documents from Home campaigns. Some of the key While it appears that these Affairs offices across the stakeholders from organised problems have largely been province. The IEC puts the farming in the province have overcome by the IEC, the figure for uncollected ID been willing to share current preparations for the documents at 20 209. platforms with IEC officials 2004 general elections are not to drive the message home. In completely without problems In terms of political party addition, the IEC indicates For instance, in addition to the activities and registrations, the that unlike in the 1999 low response rates from the ANC launched its election election where they were urban areas, the IEC says that campaign in Mpumalanga on largely hostile and lack of enthusiasm from the Sunday, 18th January with uncooperative, the Traditional youth in the province is one of enthusiastic attendance by its Authority structures in the the major challenges for the supporters. The launch was province have played a very second round of voter held at Kwaggafonteing critical role not only in registration set for 24th and stadium (Kwandebele) and allowing voter education 25th January. Most of the addressed by Minister of activities in their areas but registered voters in the Agriculture & Land Affairs also by encouraging their province are in the 26-35 Thoko Didiza. The major subjects to register. years age groups. Extra effort opposition parties in the and a number of innovative province have not yet This picture contrasts strategies were therefore formally launched their significantly with the picture being employed to lure the election campaigns, which in the period leading up to the youth to register. For instance, could give the ANC a slight 1999 elections. For instance, joint efforts with the advantage start in the chaotic planning and logistical Department of Education in electioneering process. It may problems at voter registration the province have been be significant also that Didiza, stations characterised the undertaken to target schools a member of the ANC preparations for the 1999 and learners in the 16-18 National Executive elections in Mpumalanga, years age group. In addition, Committee (NEC) deployed including the voter letters written in 11 official to Mpumalanga, was registration process. In fact, languages were being mailed accompanied by another NEC the IEC in Mpumalanga to the schools in the province member and Minister for

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Local Government and 1999 elections 13 political Bua News, 20/01/2004 Provincial Affairs, Sidney parties were registered, even (AllAfrica.com) Mufamadi (deployed to though only five did well http://allafrica.com/stories/ Limpopo). Over the past two enough to secure seats in the HSRC, South African Social Attitudes Survey 2003 – years, Mufamadi has been 30-member provincial Mpumalanga credited for engaging legislature. The list of Independent Electoral Commission, effectively with traditional formally registered political Independent Electoral Commission leaders regarding government parties will be released on 4th Report: National and Provincial legislative reforms affecting February when the IEC in elections, 2 June 1999. their powers. It is believed Mpumalanga formally Lowvelder Online, 22/01/2004 News24, 19/01/2004 that this has secured the launches this year’s election www.news24.com support and cooperation of campaign process in the News24, 27/10/2003 traditional leaders in province. www.news24.com Mpumalanga for the News24, 27/10/2003 upcoming elections. His References www.news24.com presence at the launch may Reynolds, A. (1994) Election ’94: therefore be calculated to ANC, 22/02/1999 the campaigns, results and future ANC, 29/01/1999 prospects, (Johannesburg: David sustain this goodwill towards Bua News, 19/01/2004 (Atland Phillip). the ANC government from Internet Service) Reynolds, A. (1999) Election ’99: traditional leaders - one of the www.lantic.net/news.php?article=47 from Mandela to Mbeki, (Cape significant organised interest 3 Town: David Phillip). groups in the province Bua News, 19/01/2004 (Atlantic SABC News, 15/01/2004 Internet Service) www.sabcnews.com/politics/electio www.lantic.net/news.php?article=49 Also, it is not yet clear how ns 4. SABC News, 23/08/2000 many political parties have Bua News, 20/01/2004 (Atlantic www.sabcnews.com/features/electio registered to contest the 2004 Internet Service) ns provincial poll in www.lantic.net/news.php. Sowetan, 04/09/2003 Mpumalanga. During the Star, 12/09/2003 Sunday Times, 18/01/2004

EISA has much pleasure in inviting you to the launch of the

ELECTION UPDATE: SOUTH AFRICA 2004

Date: Monday 9 February 2004 Venue: EISA Office, 2nd Floor, The Atrium, 41 Stanley Avenue, Auckland Park Time: 15h30 RSVP: Nkgakong Mokonyane on (011) 482-5495 or [email protected] before the 7th of February 2004.

© The Electoral Institute of Southern Africa (EISA) 2nd Floor The Atrium 41 Stanley Ave Auckland Park · PO Box 740 Auckland Park 2006 Tel 27-11-4825495 Fax 27-11-4826163 Email [email protected] URL http://www.eisa.org.za

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Articles in the Update may be freely cited but attribution must be credited to EISA . The opinions expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of EISA

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