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Ecosystem Productivity and Water Stress in Tropical East Africa: a Case Study of the 2010–2011 Drought

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Ecosystem Productivity and Water Stress in Tropical East Africa: a Case Study of the 2010–2011 Drought land Article Ecosystem Productivity and Water Stress in Tropical East Africa: A Case Study of the 2010–2011 Drought Eugene S. Robinson 1, Xi Yang 2 and Jung-Eun Lee 1,* 1 Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA; [email protected] 2 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +1-401-863-6465 Received: 25 January 2019; Accepted: 12 March 2019; Published: 22 March 2019 Abstract: Characterizing the spatiotemporal patterns of ecosystem responses to drought is important in understanding the impact of water stress on tropical ecosystems and projecting future land cover transitions in the East African tropics. Through the analysis of satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil moisture, rainfall, and reanalysis data, here we characterize the 2010–2011 drought in tropical East Africa. The 2010–2011 drought included the consecutive failure of rainy seasons in October–November–December 2010 and March–April–May 2011 and extended further east and south compared with previous regional droughts. During 2010–2011, SIF, a proxy of ecosystem productivity, showed a concomitant decline (~32% lower gross primary productivity, or GPP, based on an empirical SIF–GPP relationship, as compared to the long-term average) with water stress, expressed by lower precipitation and soil moisture. Both SIF and NDVI showed a negative response to drought, and SIF captured the response to soil moisture with a lag of 16 days, even if it had lower spatial resolution and much smaller energy compared with NDVI, suggesting that SIF can also serve as an early indicator of drought in the future. This work demonstrates the unique characteristics of the 2010–2011 East African drought and the ability of SIF and NDVI to track the levels of water stress during the drought. Keywords: solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence; drought; photosynthesis; East Africa; water stress; NDVI 1. Introduction Droughts impact not only ecosystem functions but also the well-being of affected human populations [1,2]. The temporal and geospatial responses to drought are varied, and they threaten regions that are less well-adapted to water stress. A better understanding of the relationship between photosynthesis and water stress has broad reaching implications for our understanding of the global carbon and hydrological cycles. Roughly half of the global variability in terrestrial carbon cycling can be attributed to carbon dioxide fluxes in tropical Africa, but the impact of drought on these fluxes is still modeled with significant uncertainty [3]. Further research on continental carbon fluxes is limited by data availability and characterization of regional productivity responses to drought [4,5]. The future of ecosystem productivity in the tropics is limited by how well plants cope with water stress but the influence of seasonal water stress on productivity, particularly in Africa’s tropical regions, has rarely been characterized [6,7]. African climate is characterized by summer rainfall in the northern and southern tropics with an equatorial bimodal regime in-between. Regional variations notwithstanding (Figure1), rainfall Land 2019, 8, 52; doi:10.3390/land8030052 www.mdpi.com/journal/land Land 2019, 8, 52 2 of 15 Land 2019African, 8, 52 climate is characterized by summer rainfall in the northern and southern tropics2 withof 15 Landan equatorial2019, 8, 52 bimodal regime in-between. Regional variations notwithstanding (Figure 1), rainfall2 of 14 in tropicalAfrican East climate Africa is is characterized delivered during by summer the boreal rainfa springll in andthe northernfall (Figure and 2), southern accompanying tropics localwith solaran equatorial insolation bimodal maxima. regime The rainy in-between. season from Regional Marc hvariations to May, known notwithstanding as the “long (Figure rains” 1),in Kenya,rainfall in“Belg”in tropicaltropical in Ethiopia, EastEast AfricaAfrica and isis “Gu” delivereddelivered in Somalia, duringduring includes thethe borealboreal the spring springmajority andand of fallfall annual (Figure(Figure regional2 2),), accompanying accompanying rainfall. A second local local solarrainysolar insolationinsolationseason occurs maxima. during The the rainy boreal season fall and from is Marc Marchreferredh to to May, as the known “short as rains” the “long in Kenya, rains” “Keremt” in Kenya, “Belg”in“Belg” Ethiopia, inin Ethiopia,Ethiopia, and “Deyr” andand “Gu”“Gu” in Somalia. inin Somalia,Somalia, For simplicity, includesincludes thethe Kenyan majoritymajority terminology ofof annualannualregional regionalis employed rainfall.rainfall. in this AA secondsecond study rainyalongrainy seasonseasonwith March, occursoccurs during duringApril, the Maythe boreal boreal (MAM) fall fall and and is isOctober, referred referred toNovember, to as as the the “short “short December rains” rains” in in Kenya,(OND) Kenya, “Keremt”to “Keremt” refer into Ethiopia,respectivein Ethiopia, and rainy and “Deyr” “Deyr”months. in Somalia. in In Somalia. the For area simplicity,For of simplicity, our Kenyaninte restKenyan terminology(black terminology boxes is employedin isFigure employed in1), this annual in study this alongmeanstudy withprecipitationalong March, with April,March, is 439 May mm/year;April, (MAM) May this and (MAM) is October, a dry and region November, October, where DecemberNovember, the two (OND)growing December to referseasons (OND) to respective (Figure to refer 3) rainy are to months.susceptiblerespective In therainyto even area months. ofsmall our de interest Increases the (black areain precipitation. boxesof our in Figureinte rest1), (black annual boxes mean precipitationin Figure 1), is 439annual mm/year; mean thisprecipitation is a dry region is 439 where mm/year; the two this growing is a dry seasons region (Figurewhere3 the) are two susceptible growing to seasons even small (Figure decreases 3) are insusceptible precipitation. to even small decreases in precipitation. Figure 1. AverageAverage annualannual mean mean precipitation precipitation from from Global Glob Precipitational Precipitation Climatology Climatology Project Project (GPCP; (GPCP; left) andleft) Tropicaland Tropical Rainfall Rainfall Measuring Measuring Mission MultisatelliteMission Multisatellite (TRMM; right) (TRMM; climatology right) data, climatology demonstrating data, Figure 1. Average annual mean precipitation from Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP; thedemonstrating variability in the rainfall variability regimes in in rainfall the area. regimes For zonally in averagedthe area. values,For zonally the drought averaged region values, is defined the left) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite (TRMM; right) climatology data, asdrought the land region area is between defined 1.5 as◦ theS and land 4◦ areaN and between 38.5◦ E1.5°S to 46.5 and◦ E4°N (black andbox). 38.5°E to 46.5°E (black box). demonstrating the variability in rainfall regimes in the area. For zonally averaged values, the drought region is defined as the land area between 1.5°S and 4°N and 38.5°E to 46.5°E (black box). “short rains” “long rains” “short rains” “long rains” Figure 2. The climatology of rainfall over the drought region as presented by the two precipitation products used in this study, GPCPGPCP andand TRMM.TRMM. Figure 2. The climatology of rainfall over the drought region as presented by the two precipitation Climate extremes on the African continent are well studied due to their potential to produce Climateproducts extremesused in this on study, the AfricanGPCP and continent TRMM. are well studied due to their potential to produce far-reaching economic and social consequences. East Africa has faced at least one major drought far-reaching economic and social consequences. East Africa has faced at least one major drought per per decade over the last half century [8]. That said, regional droughts are typically isolated to only decadeClimate over the extremes last half on century the African [8]. That continent said, re aregional we lldroughts studied dueare typicallyto their potentialisolated toto onlyproduce one onefar-reaching of the two economic rainy seasons; and social consecutive consequences. failed rainsEast Africa are uncommon has faced phenomena at least one givenmajor thedrought differing per influencesdecade over on the precipitation last half century for each [8]. rainy That season. said, re Thegional successive droughts failure are typically of 2010 shortisolated rains to andonly 2011 one Land 2019, 8, 52 3 of 14 long rains produced the worst East African drought in the last 60 years [9], causing humanitarian crises in East Africa. This study seeks to characterize the productivity response of tropical East Africa to water stress while identifying the unique spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2010–2011 drought. Related research on gross primary production (GPP) change in other tropical ecosystems and drought impacts relies on satellite-derived measurements because in situ measurements there remain scarce, largely due to operational constraints [10]. Here, we use relatively new satellite measurements of solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) [11] to study the change in East African productivity during the drought, in conjunction with other atmospheric and terrestrial datasets. In Section2, we
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