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Sector Update Pharmaceutical Sector Institutional Equities Pharmaceutical Sector 29 September 2020 Scenario Analysis for Large cap Pharma – FY21E-24E Vishal Manchanda In the near to medium term (FY21–FY24), earnings growth trajectory for most large cap Research Analyst pharma names in the sector will be driven by timing of monetization of their complex [email protected] generic pipeline and innovation led NCE opportunities in the US. We do a sensitivity +91 9737437148 analysis of these complex generic opportunities / NCE opportunities on the earnings Gaurang Sakare for the large cap companies under our coverage to arrive a bull, base and bear case Research Associate scenario. We estimate the impact of delay or failure to monetize the pipeline on [email protected] potential earnings for these companies – FY21 – FY24. Apart from complex generics, +9122 6273 8093 other elements that can meaningfully influence earnings in the medium term is also the IPM growth and scale up around biosimilar initiatives / successful vaccine approval for select companies. Complex Generic Pipeline is robust for most players and we are in early phase of monetization: In case of Lupin and Cipla, they have a pipeline of respiratory assets that they would look to execute in the US. For Sun pharma, there is lower visibility on the complex generic ANDA pipeline, but scale up of specialty asset is the key earnings driver. The ANDA pipeline of Sun pharma has complex ophthalmic and injectable assets, but the approval timelines remain unknown. Dr. Reddy has multiple assets on the complex generic side which include – gNuvaring, gCopaxone, gVascepa, bRituxan, gRevlimid and gKuvan. Likewise, Biocon, will be focusing on approval for their biosimilar assets –bAvastin and bNovolog, and Sector Update Sector scale up of bLantus in the US. Cadila is targeting transdermal approvals for the US market and they have 7 in pipeline, which are expected to be monetized in FY22 and onwards. The execution on complex generics so far has not met expectations, but with most these pipeline opportunities having gone through multiple review cycles, we need to be optimistic., In case of Aurobindo pharma, it continues to scale up US business as their ANDA basket that awaits approval in the US is skewed towards higher margin segments (ophthalmic, injectable, peptides). In addition, they are also looking to leverage their sales base in Europe for high margin launches. IPM Growth – Select COVID driven opportunities (vaccine, preventive care and treatments) plus restoration of normalcy in lifestyle will help recovery: IPM growth will be subdued (low to mid-single digit) in FY21 on account of COVID but should recover in FY22 and onwards as there is normalization. The slowdown in FY21 is led by a decline in acute drug sales and a decline in patients visiting doctors for chronic ailments. The extent of recovery will depend on the availability of vaccines and how we see the COVID situation evolving. Availability of vaccine is expected around 1QFY22 time frame, however looking at the increasing scale of infection, development of herd immunity leading to a natural suppression of COVID crisis may not be ruled out. Assuming a cost of Rs. 500 per patient for COVID vaccination, the COVID vaccine opportunity may be worth about Rs. 20000 crore at 30% penetration level. The key beneficiaries could be companies that are indeginiously working on a COVID vaccine (Cadila healthcare) or one’s with a large distribution network / manufacturing capability that allows to tie them up with Global COVID vaccine manufacturer. Biosimilar Ramp up in Emerging Markets: Biosimilar approvals in Emerging Markets can be a major growth driver for the pharmaceutical companies. Companies like Cadila healthcare are expecting traction in emerging market sales FY22 and onwards. Biocon is an early mover on this front and has been able to build a base. Dr. Reddy is the other player that can build on this opportunity as they too have a meaningful portfolio of biosimilars to ride upon. Our Top Picks based on Scenario Analysis - Bull, Bear and Base Case Scenario: Based on our scenario analysis, we recommend Sun Pharma, Cipla and Aurobindo Pharma as our top picks. The choice of our top picks is driven by the upside that we can potentially see in the bull case and the downside risk in the even we see a bear case scenario playing out. Institutional Equities Exhibit 1: Base Case Company EPS EBITDA (Rs.mn) IMPLIED P/E IMPLIED EV/EBITDA FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Aurobindo 52.6 55.0 57.1 62.2 52388 55553 58732 64507 15.2 14.6 14.0 12.9 9.4 8.4 7.4 6.3 Biocon 9.5 12.4 14.8 17.0 23,359 29,397 34,274 38,862 47.3 36.3 30.4 26.5 23.0 18.1 15.1 12.8 Cipla 32.2 35.5 45.6 54.0 46643.0 51373.2 62556.8 71318.1 24.1 21.8 17.0 14.4 13.7 12.0 9.5 8.0 Cadila 17.6 18.6 19.9 26.0 32933 35197 38118 47249 22.2 21.0 19.7 15.1 13.7 12.8 11.6 9.1 Dr. Reddy 162.8 220.2 294.0 356.8 49648.6 62576.5 78313.7 91818.2 31.5 23.3 17.4 14.4 16.7 12.9 10.0 8.1 Lupin 25.4 43.7 48.7 59.3 26,628 36,536 39,569 46,982 43.5 24.3 21.7 17.7 17.1 12.1 10.7 8.6 Sun Pharma 7.4 25.4 28.3 31.3 80921.0 94954.9 106632.6 116785.3 68.6 20.1 18.0 16.3 14.8 12.3 10.5 9.0 Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Exhibit 2: Bull Case Company EPS EBITDA (Rs.mn) IMPLIED P/E IMPLIED EV/EBITDA FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Aurobindo 54.0 58.1 66.1 76.1 53500 58051 66157 75897 14.8 13.8 12.1 10.5 9.2 8.0 6.6 5.2 Biocon 9.9 13.4 16.9 19.4 24024 30965 37663 42719 45.3 33.6 26.6 23.2 22.3 17.1 13.6 11.5 Cipla 32.2 41.1 52.6 65.4 46643 57520 70330 84128 24.1 18.9 14.7 11.9 13.7 10.7 8.4 6.6 Cadila 18.1 21.4 24.5 31.4 33612 39107 44569 54905 21.6 18.2 16.0 12.4 13.5 11.4 9.8 7.6 Dr. Reddy 166.8 269.1 328.2 430.3 50543 73219 85979 108288 30.8 19.1 15.6 11.9 16.4 11.1 9.0 6.7 Lupin 38.4 64.5 66.7 81.9 35951 46052 51427 61998 27.9 16.2 15.6 12.7 12.6 9.4 8.0 6.1 Sun Pharma 9.9 28.1 33.7 40.8 85462 101960 117650 138036 51.4 18.1 15.2 12.5 14.0 11.2 9.3 7.4 Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Exhibit 3: Bear Case Company EPS EBITDA (Rs.mn) IMPLIED P/E IMPLIED EV/EBITDA FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Aurobindo 51.2 52.0 51.8 51.2 51276 53056 54412 55471 15.6 15.4 15.5 15.6 9.6 8.8 8.1 7.4 Biocon 9.1 11.7 13.6 15.5 22,694 28,321 32,441 36,518 49.5 38.4 33.0 29.0 23.7 18.8 16.0 13.8 Cipla 32.2 33.3 39.5 45.9 46643 48897 55666 62210 24.1 23.3 19.6 16.9 13.7 12.7 10.8 9.3 Cadila 17.6 17.4 17.5 22.3 32933 33609 34791 42159 22.2 22.4 22.3 17.5 13.7 13.4 12.8 10.3 Dr. Reddy 161.4 182.5 187.6 198.3 49329 53787 54441 56270 31.8 28.1 27.3 25.9 16.8 15.1 14.5 13.6 Lupin 20.3 32.4 36.3 45.6 23,029 31,355 31,462 37,826 55.6 33.4 29.6 23.3 19.9 14.2 13.7 11.0 Sun Pharma 7.4 22.9 25.0 28.2 80659 86158 91414 99922 68.8 22.3 20.4 18.1 14.9 13.4 12.1 10.6 Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research 2 Pharmaceutical Sector Institutional Equities Table of Contents Companies Aurobindo Pharma …..………………………………………...…………….………….……….…....……05 Biocon ……………………………………………………………………………………...…………….…..11 Cadila Healthcare..…………….……………………………………………………...……….….……..….17 Cipla…………………………………………………….……………………………...…………..……….…23 Dr Reddy’s Labs.…………………………………….……………………………...…………..….….….…29 Lupin………………………………………………….……………………………...…………..……...….…37 Sun Pharma…………..…………….…………………………………………………………….……..……43 3 Pharmaceutical Sector Institutional Equities CCoommppaannyy SSeeccttiioonn 4 Pharmaceutical Sector Institutional Equities Aurobindo Pharma 29 September 2020 Reuters: ARBP.NS; Bloomberg: ARBP IN Europe margin expansion, Pneumococcal vaccine approval and BUY injectable launches in US – Bull, Base and Bear Case Over the last two years, Aurobindo Pharma Ltd has done extraordinarily well in delivering growth Sector: Pharmaceuticals in the US, as it has been able to capitalize on new business opportunities arising out of the exit of global generic players from specific products in the US. At this juncture, Aurobindo has the CMP: Rs801 largest revenue base in the US, which is largely driven by commoditized products and less by Target Price: Rs953 high-value opportunities and hence a large part of this is sustainable.
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