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WRITTEN EVIDENCE of the CITY of VANCOUVER APPENDIX 83 Written Evidence of Rashid Sumaila, Phd

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WRITTEN EVIDENCE of the CITY of VANCOUVER APPENDIX 83 Written Evidence of Rashid Sumaila, Phd WRITTEN EVIDENCE OF THE CITY OF VANCOUVER APPENDIX 83 Written Evidence of Rashid Sumaila, PhD {00224463v1} National Energy Board Hearing into Trans Mountain Expansion Project Direct Written Evidence of Rashid Sumaila Prepared for the City of Vancouver May 19, 2015 Table of Contents 1. Introduction and summary of witness qualification 1 2. Summary of Conclusions 3 3. Summary of Analysis 6 Appendix A: CV of Rashid Sumaila Appendix B: Report of Sumaila R, Hotte N and Bjarnason H, Potential economic impacts of a tanker spill on ocean-dependent activities in Vancouver, British Columbia (May 2015) Appendix C: CV of Ngaio Hotte Appendix D: CV of Harmony Bjarnason Appendix E: Certificate of Expert's Duty 1 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF QUALIFICATIONS 2 Q.l Please state your name, occupation and business address. 3 A.l My name is Ussif Rashid Sumaila and I am a Professor and Director of the 4 Fisheries Economics Research Unit at UBC Fisheries Centre. 5 My address is 6 UBC Fisheries Centre, 7 2202 Main Mall 8 Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 9 Q.2 What is your academic background? 10 A.2 I have a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Bergen, a Master of Science 1 1 degree in Economics from the University of Bergen and a Bachelor of Science from 1 2 Ahmadu Bello Univeristy. 1 3 Q.3 Please outline your principal areas of research. 14 A.3 I specialize in hioeconomics, marine ecosystem valuation and the analysis of 15 global issues such as fisheries subsidies, IUU (illegal, unreported and unregulated) 16 fishing and the economics of oil spills, high and deep seas fisheries. I have experience 17 working in fisheries and natural resource projects in Norway, Canada and the North 1 8 Atlantic region, Namibia and the Southern African region, Ghana and the West African 1 9 region and Hong Kong and the South China Sea. 20 I have published articles in 170 journals including Science, Nature and the Journal of 21 Environmental Economics and Management. My work has been cited by the Economist, 22 the Boston Globe, the International Herald Tribune, Maine Sunday Telegram, the 23 Financial Times, the Globe and Mail, VGA, CBC News and the Vancouver Sun. 1 I have received a number of awards in recognition for my contribution to the global 2 debate on sustainable ocean fisheries, including, the 2013 American Fisheries Society 3 Excellence in Public Outreach, the Leopold Leadership Fellowship (Stanford), the Pew 4 Fellowship for Marine Conservation; Craigdarroch Award for Societal Contribution 5 (shared); the 2nd Johan Hjort Chair in Marine Economics and Management (the Nordic 6 Centre of Excellence "NorMER"), the Zayed International Prize for the Environment 7 (shared) and the Peter Wall Institute Senior Early Career Scholar Award (UBC). 8 I have been invited to speak at the UN Rio + 20 Ocean Dialogue, the White House, the 9 U.S. Congress, the Canadian Parliament, the House of Lords, UK and the WTO. 1 0 My curriculum vitae is attached at Appendix A. 1 1 Q.4 What is the purpose of your evidence in this proceeding? 1 2 A. 4 I have been retained by the City of Vancouver to assess the potential economic 13 impact of a hydrocarbon spill in the Burrard Inlet on key ocean-dependant activities 14 within the City of Vancouver in order to inform the National Energy Board's assessment 15 of the potential costs and benefits of the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project 16 (TMEP). 17 My report, which I authored with the assistance of Ngaio Hotte and Harmony Bjamason, 1 8 is attached as Appendix B. 19 Q.5 Do you submit the contents of this document and the Appendices as your 20 written evidence? 21 A. Yes, this is my written evidence and I am the person primarily responsible for the 22 report attached at Appendix B. 23 I was assisted in the preparation of the report by Ngaio Hotte and Harmony Bjamason. 1 Ngaio Hotte is a Resource Economist and Facilitator with the Department of Forest 2 Resources Management in the Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia. Her 3 research focuses on the economics of sustainable resource management; previous projects 4 have included exploring economic incentives for adaptation to climate change in forestry, 5 reviewing economic benefits of urban forestry and estimating potential economic impacts 6 of a tanker spill on the North Coast of BC. She has also facilitated workshops with 7 representatives from First Nations, federal, provincial and local governments, academia 8 and industry, including two Peter Wall Institute International Roundtables. 9 Harmony Bjamason is a Freelance Economist, a Project Manager with the Master of 10 Food and Resource Economics program in the Department of Land and Food Systems at 1 1 UBC and a Climate Change Adaptation Planner/Facilitator with the BC Agriculture and 12 Food Climate Action Initiative. Her work focuses on incentive-based approaches to 13 climate change adaptation and exploring market-based solutions to environmental 1 4 challenges. 1 5 SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS 1 6 Q.5 Please summarize your conclusions. 1 7 A.5 My conclusions regarding the potential economic impact of a hydrocarbon spill in 1 8 the Burrard Inlet on key ocean-dependant activities within the City of Vancouver are as 19 follows; 20 • Ocean-dependent activities in the Burrard Inlet support direct employment of 21 approximately 18,000 people per year; a number equal to four percent of the 22 population of Vancouver. When indirect and induced values are also considered, 23 the Burrard Inlet provides employment for approximately eight percent of the 24 City's population. When indirect and induced values are also considered, the 25 Burrard Inlet provides employment for an equivalent of eight percent of the 26 population of Vancouver. 1 • The performance of five ocean-dependent economic activities (commercial 2 fishing, port activities, inner harbour transportation, tourism and recreation) is 3 closely linked to the condition of the marine environment. 4 • Ocean-dependent activities in Vancouver are estimated to currently contribute a 5 total of $6,43 0-$6,700 million Canadian Dollars (CAD)1 in output value, 32,520 6 36,680 person years (PY) of employment and $3,061 -$3,261 million in GDP to 7 the Vancouver economy each year. 8 • In the event of a 16,000 m3 hydrocarbon spill at the First Narrows in May, the 9 ocean-dependent economy would suffer total losses in the range of $380-$l,230 10 million in output value, 3,238-12,881 PY of employment and $201-$687 million 1 1 in GDP. 12 • Under a May spill scenario, 45 percent of output value, 138 percent of 1 3 employment and 40 percent of the contribution to GDP from the proposed Trans 14 Mountain Expansion Project, as estimated by Hodgson (2014), could be lost to the 1 5 spill by the few economic activities studied in this report. 16 • In the event of a 16,000 m3 hydrocarbon spill at the First Narrows in October, 17 Vancouver's it is estimated that the ocean-dependent economy could suffer total 18 losses in the range of $2 15-$ 1,020 million in output value, 1,972-11,216 PY of 1 9 employment and $115-$575 million in GDP. 20 • Under an October spill scenario, 38 percent of output value, 120 percent of 21 employment and 34 percent GDP from the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion 22 Project, as estimated by Hodgson (2014), could be lost to the spill. 23 • Differences in impacts between May and October spill scenarios are due to 24 seasonal variations in economic activity in Vancouver's five key ocean-dependent 25 economic activities. 26 1 All monetary values are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated. 1 1 . Dungeness crabs are harvested year-round; however, the months of May 2 through October tend to be the most productive for commercial fishermen 3 (DFO 2009). The commercial spot prawn season opens on or after May 1 4 each year and closes by the end of June (DFO 2014). 5 2. Floatplane transportation is highly seasonal, a May spill would affect 44 6 percent of annual revenues, whereas an October spill would affect 11 7 percent of annual revenues2. 8 3. The majority of on-water recreation and waterfront (beaches and seawall 9 use) in Vancouver occurs between the months of May and September and 1 0 a spill in May would result in greater tourism losses than a spill in October 1 1 with impacts being felt during peak tourist season. 1 2 4. Waterfront and water-based events occur predominantly in the late spring, 13 summer and early fall with only 13 percent of economic output value 14 occurring prior to May 1 in an average year, therefore a spill in May has 1 5 the potential to generate a greater economic impact than a spill in October 1 6 since it precedes the event season. 17 • The projected losses from a hydrocarbon spill are substantial given the study's 18 narrow focus on the impact on the market values of only five key ocean- 19 dependent economic activities in Vancouver. Ocean-dependent activities in 20 Vancouver encompass only a portion of the local economy that could experience 21 losses from a hydrocarbon spill in the Burrard Inlet. 22 • This study does not include the costs of a spill response, clean-up and litigation 23 activities or the environmental impacts of a spill. The value of socio-economic 24 impacts to local residents whose employment is not linked to the Burrard Inlet 25 also has not been assessed in this study, including impacts on human health, real 26 property values, community cohesion, local non-tourism businesses, general well- 27 being of the residents in the City of Vancouver.
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