WRITTEN EVIDENCE OF THE CITY OF VANCOUVER APPENDIX 83 Written Evidence of Rashid Sumaila, PhD
{00224463v1} National Energy Board Hearing into Trans Mountain Expansion Project
Direct Written Evidence of Rashid Sumaila
Prepared for the City of Vancouver
May 19, 2015 Table of Contents
1. Introduction and summary of witness qualification 1
2. Summary of Conclusions 3
3. Summary of Analysis 6
Appendix A: CV of Rashid Sumaila
Appendix B: Report of Sumaila R, Hotte N and Bjarnason H, Potential economic impacts of a tanker spill on ocean-dependent activities in Vancouver, British Columbia (May 2015)
Appendix C: CV of Ngaio Hotte
Appendix D: CV of Harmony Bjarnason
Appendix E: Certificate of Expert's Duty 1 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF QUALIFICATIONS
2 Q.l Please state your name, occupation and business address.
3 A.l My name is Ussif Rashid Sumaila and I am a Professor and Director of the
4 Fisheries Economics Research Unit at UBC Fisheries Centre.
5 My address is 6 UBC Fisheries Centre, 7 2202 Main Mall 8 Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4
9 Q.2 What is your academic background?
10 A.2 I have a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Bergen, a Master of Science
1 1 degree in Economics from the University of Bergen and a Bachelor of Science from
1 2 Ahmadu Bello Univeristy.
1 3 Q.3 Please outline your principal areas of research.
14 A.3 I specialize in hioeconomics, marine ecosystem valuation and the analysis of
15 global issues such as fisheries subsidies, IUU (illegal, unreported and unregulated)
16 fishing and the economics of oil spills, high and deep seas fisheries. I have experience
17 working in fisheries and natural resource projects in Norway, Canada and the North
1 8 Atlantic region, Namibia and the Southern African region, Ghana and the West African
1 9 region and Hong Kong and the South China Sea.
20 I have published articles in 170 journals including Science, Nature and the Journal of
21 Environmental Economics and Management. My work has been cited by the Economist,
22 the Boston Globe, the International Herald Tribune, Maine Sunday Telegram, the
23 Financial Times, the Globe and Mail, VGA, CBC News and the Vancouver Sun. 1 I have received a number of awards in recognition for my contribution to the global
2 debate on sustainable ocean fisheries, including, the 2013 American Fisheries Society
3 Excellence in Public Outreach, the Leopold Leadership Fellowship (Stanford), the Pew
4 Fellowship for Marine Conservation; Craigdarroch Award for Societal Contribution
5 (shared); the 2nd Johan Hjort Chair in Marine Economics and Management (the Nordic
6 Centre of Excellence "NorMER"), the Zayed International Prize for the Environment
7 (shared) and the Peter Wall Institute Senior Early Career Scholar Award (UBC).
8 I have been invited to speak at the UN Rio + 20 Ocean Dialogue, the White House, the
9 U.S. Congress, the Canadian Parliament, the House of Lords, UK and the WTO.
1 0 My curriculum vitae is attached at Appendix A.
1 1 Q.4 What is the purpose of your evidence in this proceeding?
1 2 A. 4 I have been retained by the City of Vancouver to assess the potential economic
13 impact of a hydrocarbon spill in the Burrard Inlet on key ocean-dependant activities
14 within the City of Vancouver in order to inform the National Energy Board's assessment
15 of the potential costs and benefits of the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project
16 (TMEP).
17 My report, which I authored with the assistance of Ngaio Hotte and Harmony Bjamason,
1 8 is attached as Appendix B.
19 Q.5 Do you submit the contents of this document and the Appendices as your 20 written evidence?
21 A. Yes, this is my written evidence and I am the person primarily responsible for the
22 report attached at Appendix B.
23 I was assisted in the preparation of the report by Ngaio Hotte and Harmony Bjamason. 1 Ngaio Hotte is a Resource Economist and Facilitator with the Department of Forest
2 Resources Management in the Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia. Her
3 research focuses on the economics of sustainable resource management; previous projects
4 have included exploring economic incentives for adaptation to climate change in forestry,
5 reviewing economic benefits of urban forestry and estimating potential economic impacts
6 of a tanker spill on the North Coast of BC. She has also facilitated workshops with
7 representatives from First Nations, federal, provincial and local governments, academia
8 and industry, including two Peter Wall Institute International Roundtables.
9 Harmony Bjamason is a Freelance Economist, a Project Manager with the Master of
10 Food and Resource Economics program in the Department of Land and Food Systems at
1 1 UBC and a Climate Change Adaptation Planner/Facilitator with the BC Agriculture and
12 Food Climate Action Initiative. Her work focuses on incentive-based approaches to
13 climate change adaptation and exploring market-based solutions to environmental
1 4 challenges.
1 5 SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS
1 6 Q.5 Please summarize your conclusions.
1 7 A.5 My conclusions regarding the potential economic impact of a hydrocarbon spill in
1 8 the Burrard Inlet on key ocean-dependant activities within the City of Vancouver are as
19 follows;
20 • Ocean-dependent activities in the Burrard Inlet support direct employment of
21 approximately 18,000 people per year; a number equal to four percent of the
22 population of Vancouver. When indirect and induced values are also considered,
23 the Burrard Inlet provides employment for approximately eight percent of the
24 City's population. When indirect and induced values are also considered, the
25 Burrard Inlet provides employment for an equivalent of eight percent of the
26 population of Vancouver. 1 • The performance of five ocean-dependent economic activities (commercial
2 fishing, port activities, inner harbour transportation, tourism and recreation) is
3 closely linked to the condition of the marine environment.
4 • Ocean-dependent activities in Vancouver are estimated to currently contribute a 5 total of $6,43 0-$6,700 million Canadian Dollars (CAD)1 in output value, 32,520
6 36,680 person years (PY) of employment and $3,061 -$3,261 million in GDP to
7 the Vancouver economy each year.
8 • In the event of a 16,000 m3 hydrocarbon spill at the First Narrows in May, the
9 ocean-dependent economy would suffer total losses in the range of $380-$l,230
10 million in output value, 3,238-12,881 PY of employment and $201-$687 million
1 1 in GDP.
12 • Under a May spill scenario, 45 percent of output value, 138 percent of
1 3 employment and 40 percent of the contribution to GDP from the proposed Trans
14 Mountain Expansion Project, as estimated by Hodgson (2014), could be lost to the
1 5 spill by the few economic activities studied in this report.
16 • In the event of a 16,000 m3 hydrocarbon spill at the First Narrows in October,
17 Vancouver's it is estimated that the ocean-dependent economy could suffer total
18 losses in the range of $2 15-$ 1,020 million in output value, 1,972-11,216 PY of
1 9 employment and $115-$575 million in GDP.
20 • Under an October spill scenario, 38 percent of output value, 120 percent of
21 employment and 34 percent GDP from the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion
22 Project, as estimated by Hodgson (2014), could be lost to the spill.
23 • Differences in impacts between May and October spill scenarios are due to
24 seasonal variations in economic activity in Vancouver's five key ocean-dependent
25 economic activities.
26
1 All monetary values are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated. 1 1 . Dungeness crabs are harvested year-round; however, the months of May
2 through October tend to be the most productive for commercial fishermen
3 (DFO 2009). The commercial spot prawn season opens on or after May 1
4 each year and closes by the end of June (DFO 2014).
5 2. Floatplane transportation is highly seasonal, a May spill would affect 44
6 percent of annual revenues, whereas an October spill would affect 11 7 percent of annual revenues2.
8 3. The majority of on-water recreation and waterfront (beaches and seawall
9 use) in Vancouver occurs between the months of May and September and
1 0 a spill in May would result in greater tourism losses than a spill in October
1 1 with impacts being felt during peak tourist season.
1 2 4. Waterfront and water-based events occur predominantly in the late spring,
13 summer and early fall with only 13 percent of economic output value
14 occurring prior to May 1 in an average year, therefore a spill in May has
1 5 the potential to generate a greater economic impact than a spill in October
1 6 since it precedes the event season.
17 • The projected losses from a hydrocarbon spill are substantial given the study's
18 narrow focus on the impact on the market values of only five key ocean-
19 dependent economic activities in Vancouver. Ocean-dependent activities in
20 Vancouver encompass only a portion of the local economy that could experience
21 losses from a hydrocarbon spill in the Burrard Inlet.
22 • This study does not include the costs of a spill response, clean-up and litigation
23 activities or the environmental impacts of a spill. The value of socio-economic
24 impacts to local residents whose employment is not linked to the Burrard Inlet
25 also has not been assessed in this study, including impacts on human health, real
26 property values, community cohesion, local non-tourism businesses, general well-
27 being of the residents in the City of Vancouver.
2 Based on author's calculation of passenger data provided by Stephanie Isted, Harbour Air, pers. comm., June 24 and 27, 2014. 1 • For example, survey data from the City of Vancouver shows that more than five
2 million people use Vancouver's shorelines during the year, of which 23 percent
3 are engaging in exercise (Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014). Approximately
4 16,000 local residents use the shoreline an average of 19 days per month for
5 exercise and deem the waterfront to be 'very important' to their decision to
6 exercise (Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014). The health benefits of physical
7 activity are well documented (Warburton et al. 2006; Haskell et al. 2007) and
8 inactivity is estimated to account for approximately 2.5 percent of Canadian
9 health care costs (Birmingham 1999; Katzmarzyk et al. 2000; Oldridge 2008).
10 The health benefits of park usage have been measured in terms of reduced health
11 care costs (Bedimo-Rung et al. 2005; Bauman et al. 2008; The Trust for Public
12 Land 201 1), increased workplace productivity and reduced employee absenteeism
13 (Shepard 1992; Cadilhac et al. 2011). By enabling 16,000 individuals to perform
14 physical activity three or more times per week, Vancouver's beaches, Seawall and
1 5 grassy areas reduce health care costs by an estimated $2 million per year.
1 6 SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS CONDUCTED
17 Q.6 Please provide a summary of the analysis you conducted in addressing the 1 8 questions described above.
19 A.6 This report assessed the potential economic cost of a hydrocarbon spill in the
20 Burrard Inlet for five key ocean-dependent economic activities in the City of Vancouver,
21 including five key industries: 1) commercial fishing; 2) port activities (shipping and
22 cruises): 31 inner harbour transportation; 4) tourism (on-water recreation, ocean-based
23 mid waterfront events, visiting beaches and seawall); and 5) local use of the
24 waterfront.City of Vanoouver: 1) commercial fishing: 2) port activities (shipping and
25 cruises); 3) inner harbour transportation; 'I) tourism (marine recreation, waterfront events,
26 visiting beaches and seawall); and 5) recreation.
27 The economic effects were estimated under three scenarios: "no spill," "spill in May" and
28 "spill in October." These scenarios were identified to characterize a range of potential 1 economic impacts of TMEP on the City of Vancouver, ranging from positive (i.e. no spill)
2 to negative (i.e. spill in May or October).
3
4 The potential impact of a hydrocarbon spill in Burrard Inlet was estimated based on
5 assumed (i) durations of marine and coastal area closures; and (ii) market recovery times,
6 by ocean-dependent activity. Several previous tanker spills offer case studies from
7 which to base assumptions about the potential economic impacts of a tanker spill in the
8 Burrard Inlet. These include the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), which released 260,000
9 bbls of crude oil into Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska in 1989; the Deepwater
10 Horizon oil spill, which discharged 4.9 million bbls into the Gulf of Mexico from April
1 1 20-July 15, 2010; and the Cosco Busan spill, which released 1,380 bbls of heavy fuel oil
12 into San Francisco Bay on November 7, 2007. Average values for duration and cost of
1 3 impacts were drawn from these and other major oil spills for comparison.
14 This report assesses potential economic costs associated with a spill and does not include
15 values for externalities associated with a spill (e.g. environmental damage, loss of option
1 6 values, human health implications).
17 Economic values are expressed in terms of total (i.e. direct, indirect and induced)
18 economic effects on indicators (i.e. economic output value, employment and gross
19 domestic product, "GDP") of ocean-dependent economic activity. Estimates include
20 effects on local residents and visitors, both within the City of Vancouver and in other
21 jurisdictions as a result of activities within the City of Vancouver.
22 Q. How was the economic contribution of existing ocean-dependant activities
23 calculated?
24 A. The baseline for the marine economy in the City of Vancouver was calculated
25 using three economic indicators: total revenue (value of total output), employment (in
26 person years, 'FYs'), and contribution to GDP (value of total output less the cost of
27 intermediate output, 'GDP'). Profit was not included as one of the indicators due to
28 the unavailability of published, publicly available data regarding operating costs for 1 several industries. The effect on taxes was also excluded because the analysis was
2 performed at the municipal level and insufficient data was available to identify
3 impacts of the project on municipal tax revenues.
4 Even though the effect of a spill can last longer, a time horizon of 25 years was
5 modeled to reflect the projected time horizon employed by Kinder Morgan in their
6 application when forecasting the economic benefits of the Trans Mountain Pipeline
7 (Hodgson 2014). The three indicators - total output, employment and contribution to
8 GDP - are evaluated using methods previously employed by Cisemos-Montemayor
9 and Sumaila (2010), Dyck and Sumaila (2010), Harper et al. (2011) McCrea-Strub et
10 al. (20 11) and Sumaila et al. (20 1 2).
1 1 The report assessed the following ocean-dependent economic activities within the City
12 of Vancouver: 1) commercial fishing occurring in the Burrard Inlet; 2) Port Metro
13 Vancouver's City of Vancouver operations and cruise ship activities; 3) marine
14 transportation in the Burrard Inlet; 4) ocean-dependent tourism in Vancouver and; 5)
1 5 local use of the waterfront. Ocean-dependent tourism encompasses several sub-sectors
1 6 that are defined as tourist participation in on-water recreation, tourist use of Vancouver
17 beaches and the seawall, and tourist participation in ocean-based or waterfront events.
1 8 'Tourists' in the latter two categories include day-tourists and overnight tourists.
19 For each of the economic indicators (i.e. total output value, employment, GDP), the
20 direct; direct and indirect; and direct, indirect and induced effects of economic activities
21 were calculated. Direct effects measure jobs, total output value and GDP resulting from
22 the economic activity of businesses operating within the industries studied. Indirect
23 effects measure jobs, total output value and GDP in related industries that supply goods
24 and services to the primary industry studied. The commercial fishing industry, for
25 example, supports firms involved in seafood processing, marketing, distribution and retail
26 (Dyck and Sumaila 2010). Induced effects result from expenditure of income and wages
27 earned through direct and indirect employment by ocean-dependent activities (BC MoE
28 2007). 1 1. Commercialfisheries
2 The value of commercial fisheries was estimated using landed (ex-vessel) catch
3 weight and value for the spot prawn and Dungeness crab fisheries in DFO fisheries
4 management sub-areas adjacent to the City of Vancouver during the years 2000-2013
5 (Martin Huang, pers. comm.. May 23, 2014 and June 10, 2014). Low and high
6 estimates of annual landed values were determined using an average based on the six
7 years with the lowest and highest catch values, respectively.
8 Direct, indirect and induced economic impacts of the commercial fishing sector were
9 estimated using input-output fishing, hunting and trapping multipliers for BC
1 0 (Statistics Canada 2010).
11 2. Port activities
/ -5 12 Port Metro Vancouver handled 135 million metric tonnes of cargo in 2013 (PMV 2013) .
13 Although Port Metro Vancouver's total cargo volume hit a low of 102 metric tonnes in
14 2009 due to the global economic turndown (InterVISTAS 2012), annual cargo tonnage
15 has been increasing steadily with 2013 volumes representing a 32 percent increase over
1 6 2009 volumes.
17 The cruise industry is an important driver for Vancouver's tourism industry as cruise
18 travellers often spend one night or more in Vancouver prior to boarding, or after
19 disembarking the vessel. A Vancouver cruise industry economic impact assessment
20 estimated the average additional spending per passenger, per visit in Vancouver at
21 $316 while the average spending per crew member, per visit was $103 (InterVISTAS
22 2012). A study by Scarfe (2011) suggests that homeports capture 8.5 times the
23 economic benefits of port-of-call ports such as Victoria. Estimated total output value,
24 employment and contribution to GDP for port and cruise ship activities was previously
25 reported by InterVISTAS Consulting (2008, 2012). These estimates formed the basis
26 of the current analysis and were not reviewed or verified within the scope of the
1 Author's calculations based on Port Metro Vancouver Facts and Stats 2013 1 current analysis. Statistics Canada BC water transportation multipliers (Statistics
2 Canada 2010) were used to estimate the value of direct, indirect and induced economic
3 output value, employment and GDP.
4 The Vancouver cruise industry has been on an overall decline since its peak in 2002 when
5 it processed over one million revenue passengers (PMV 2014), a decline that has been
6 largely attributed to the emergence of the Port of Seattle as an alternative homeport for
7 the Alaskan market (InterVISTAS 2012). The Vancouver Alaskan Cruise industry
8 experienced a steep slump from 2010-2012 hitting a low of 579,000 passengers in 2010
9 (PMV 2014). Although the industry has not recovered to its 2002 peak, passenger
10 volumes in 2013 indicate a 22 percent increase over 2012 volumes and 2014 passenger
11 volumes are expected to match 2013 volumes (PMV 2014). Passenger volumes for 2013
12 (actual) and 2014 (projected) are slightly above the 10-year average of 806,000 revenue
1 3 passengers.
14 3. Inner Harbour transportation
1 5 The Vancouver Harbour Flight Centre (CHX) is located in the heart of Downtown
16 Vancouver, adjacent to the Vancouver Convention Centre, and houses 18 seaplane
17 slips. It offers a permanent home to four floatplane operators and processed 282,414
18 passengers in 2013 (Marty Allard, pers. comm., Aug. 15, 2014). Given the difficulty
19 of obtaining detailed financial information about floatplane operations, float plane
20 industry revenues were used as a proxy for economic output value and have been
21 estimated as the product of average ticket price (weighted by flight frequency) and
22 annual passenger volumes for both commercial and sightseeing operations to and from
23 CHX. Statistics Canada BC air transportation multipliers were used to calculate
24 indirect and induced economic output value, employment and GDP (Statistics Canada
25 2010).
26 Scheduled commercial flights are popular with business travellers, leisure travellers and
27 tourists alike, as they offer the convenience of downtown-to-downtown air service. All
28 airlines also offer a wide variety of charter and sightseeing services which range from 30
10 1 minute panoramic tours of the city and mountains (approx. $112 per person), to remote
2 scenic experiences at isolated alpine lakes (approx. $325), to combination packages
3 which include return air transport to a neighbouring community combined with a second
4 activity such as whale watching ($429), kayaking ($160) and fishing (prices on request
5 based on destination) (Harbour Air website). Vancouver-based floatplane carriers report
6 that 95 percent of sightseeing/scenic passengers are tourists (Stephanie Isted, pers.
7 comm., June 24, 2014; June 27, 2014). Seaplane sightseeing service is highly seasonal
8 and in 2013, 54 percent of scenic flights took place during the summer, 27 percent during 9 the spring, 12 percent during the fall and 7 percent during the winter.4
1 0 4. Ocean-dependent tourism
1 1 Tourism is a major economic driver in BC with 6.5 percent of British Columbians being
12 employed in tourism-related activities in 2012 (Hallin 2014). Within BC, the Vancouver, 1 3 Coast & Mountains Region5 (VCM) employs 64 percent of the province's tourism sector
14 (Tourism BC 2012).
15 On average, Metro Vancouver6 attracts over eight million overnight visitors per year
16 (Tourism Vancouver 2012) while the Vancouver, Coast & Mountains Region captures
17 57.8 percent of tourism business in the Province of BC (Destination BC 2012). Outdoor
1 8 recreation activities were reported as the primary motivator for 48 percent of those likely
19 to take a trip to the Vancouver, Coast & Mountains Region, followed by experiencing
20 scenery and nature (32%) and to relax and unwind (16%) (Tourism BC 2012). Water-
21 based outdoor activities motivated 33 percent of Canadian travellers' vacation plans,
22 while 64 percent reported participating in water-based outdoor activities even if they
23 were not the primary reason for travel (Tourism BC, TAMS CAD 2007).
4 Author's calculations based on passenger statistics provided by Harbour Air through personal communication with Stephanie Isted on June 24 and June 27, 2014. 5 Vancouver, Coast & Mountains Tourism Region (VCM) is one of six recognized tourism regions in British Columbia. The region encompasses four destination areas: Metro Vancouver, Sea to Sky Country (including Whistler Resort), Mighty Fraser Country (including the Fraser Canyon) and the Sunshine Coast. 6 The Greater Vancouver Regional District is also referred to as Metro Vancouver and includes the municipalities of Anmore, Belcarra , Bowen Island, Bumaby, Coquitlam, Delta, Langley, Lions Bay, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, Surrey, Tsawwassen, Vancouver, West Vancouver, White Rock, Electoral Area A, Abbotsford.
11 1 In the Travel Activities and Motivation Survey for Canadian Tourists (TAMS CAD
2 2007), British Columbia was overwhelmingly rated as the most appealing of all the
3 Canadian provinces to visit with 70 percent of respondents rating BC as very appealing.
4 When choosing a destination to visit, feeling safe at the destination (66%) and not having
5 any health concerns at the destination (50%) were very important considerations in
6 deciding where to travel (Tourism BC, TAMS CAD 2007).
7 In 2013, overnight visitors to Vancouver spent an average of $92.38 per person, per night
8 with an average trip duration of 4.6 days (Tourism Vancouver Visitor Profiles 2008
9 2011). BC residents' same-day expenditures while leisure travelling in the Vancouver,
1 0 Coast & Mountains Region were $73 .66 per person (Destination BC 201 0).
11 Economic output value, employment and GDP for ocean-dependent tourism was
12 calculated for three separate activity categories: i) on-water recreation (excluding
13 swimming), ii) beach and seawall use (land-based waterfront activities plus
14 swimming), and iii) attendance at/participation in ocean-based/waterfront events.
15 Economic output value was calculated for overnight visitors only for the on-water
1 6 recreation category, and for both overnight tourists and day-visitors in i) the beaches
1 7 and seawall use category, ii) and ocean-based and waterfront events category.
18 On- Water Recreation
19 Total output value for overnight tourists' participation in on-water recreation was
20 calculated as the product of average amount spent per day, total number of days in
21 Vancouver, and total number of overnight tourists who participated in on-water
22 recreation while on holidays, or whose motivation to visit Vancouver was to
23 participate in on-water recreation (participation rates vs. travel motivation rates create
24 a high-low range).
25 Canadian and American overnight visitors' travel motivations and participation rates for
26 ocean-dependent recreation are taken from Statistics Canada Travel Activities and
12 1 Motivation Surveys (Tourism BC, TAMS CAD and US 2007). Table 2 reports the
2 percentage of overnight travelers visiting a Canadian destination whose trip was
3 motivated by a specific ocean-dependent activity, and the percentage of overnight
4 travelers visiting a Canadian destination who participated in certain ocean-based activity
5 even if this activity was the not a trip motivator.
6 Table 12: Overnight visitor participation in ocean-dependent recreation 7 (o/o)
Canadian Travellers American Travellers
Activity Motivated Participated Motivated Participated
Salt water fishing 1 4 2 7 Ocean kayaking 1 4 0 2 Motor boating 4 17 2 9 Sailing 1 4 1 3 Scuba-ocean 1 3 1 3 Sunbathing/ sitting on beach 17 39 12 28 Whale watching 3 11 n/a n/a Swimming in ocean 8 27 8 27 8 (Data sources: Tourism BC - Travel Activity and Motivation Surveys for CAD and US 9 Travellers 2007)
10 Total output value for overnight tourists and day-visitors' use of the waterfront
1 1 beaches and seawall was calculated as the product of average amount spent per day
12 (weighted by the amount of time spent at the waterfront, e.g. 0.3 representing a few
1 3 hours) and total number of visitors who visited the beach or seawall while on holidays
1 4 in Vancouver. A high-low range was created using the confidence interval from the
15 usage ratio of day-visitors, to overnight tourists, to locals from the Vancouver
1 6 Waterfront Survey (201 4).
1 7 Ocean-based and waterfront events
18 Every year, the City of Vancouver hosts hundreds of events from community street
19 parties, to music and cultural festivals, to world class sporting events like the BMO
20 Vancouver Marathon and the Rio Tinto Dragon Boat Festival. This analysis carves out the
13 1 economic impact of events that are linked to the ocean environment, either directly (take
2 place on the water), or indirectly (take place on the beach or the seawall). The events that
3 have been included for analysis are inextricably linked to the waterfront environment and
4 therefore reliant on access to the waterfront and the health of the ocean environment for
5 their success. Ocean-dependent events have been organized into six categories, with the
6 number of events and attendance/participation reported in Table 3 .
7 Table 23: Ocean-based and waterfront events* in Vancouver
#of Attendance/ Type ofEvent Events Participation*
Events on the Water 20 428,200 Beach Events 5 58,300 Running Races (seawall) 12 182,000 Triathlons (seawall and ocean) 2 2,600 Community Events/Fundraisers 8 39,000 (seawall, beaches, waterfront parks) Arts/Cultural 2 134,000 (seawall, beaches, waterfront parks) 8 * events noted above with the exception of 'events on the water' have 1000+ 9 attendees/participants per event 1 0 + attendance/participation rates include locals, day-visitors and overnight visitors and 1 1 are reported by City of Vancouver and/or event organizers. This report attempts to 12 include all events that take place on the water regardless of size, but given the 1 3 difficulty of securing reliable attendance data for small events, the total number of 14 events that take place on or near the water and thus the number of 1 5 attendees/participants are conservatively estimated. A complete list of events included 1 6 in this analysis is a vaiiabie in Appendix II.
17 Travel activity and motivation surveys indicate that festivals and events motivated 16
1 8 percent of Canadian travellers' holiday plans, while 43 percent attended or participated in
19 a festival or event while on holiday (Tourism BC TAMS CAD 2007). Fireworks displays
20 motivated three percent of Canadian travel, while another 15 percent of travellers
21 attended a fireworks event while on holidays. Attendance at amateur sporting events
22 motivated five percent of Canadian travellers while 11 percent attended an amateur
23 sporting event. US visitors to BC have similar travel habits with 55 percent of American
24 visitors to BC attending a fair or festival (includes fireworks, community events and free
25 outdoor concerts).
14 1 Ocean-based and waterfront events in the City of Vancouver attract local residents, day-
2 visitors who come to Vancouver for an event but do not spend the night in Vancouver, as
3 well as overnight visitors who come to Vancouver for an event and spend at least one
4 night in Vancouver. Aggregated spectator/participant composition for each type of event
5 is provided in Table 4. The percentage of day visitors and overnight visitors motivated to
6 travel because of the event is provided in brackets (expressed as a percentage of total
7 attendees).
8 | Table 14: Ocean-based and waterfront events: participation and 1 g motivation rates for locals, day-visitors, and overnight visitors.
Overnight Day Visitor (<>/o) Visitor (Vo) Event Type Local (%) (primary travel (primary travel motivation, %) motivation, %) Events on the Water 50 30 (24) 20 (7) Beach Events 75 13 (11) 12 (5) Running Races/Triathlons 44 44 (100) 12 (100) Community Events/Fundraisers 50 30 (25) 20 (9) Arts/Cultural 50 30 (25) 20 (9)
11 (Data source: Attendance at events and travel motivation calculated by analyzing 12 survey data from the Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014 and from data provided by 13 event organizers regarding registration and attendance at events. Detailed 14 methodology in Appendix I).
15 In 2013, ocean-dependent events in the City of Vancouver attracted 417,000 tourists of
16 whom 306,000 were primarily motivated to come to the City to attend or participate in 1 7 the event.7 Apart from running races and triathlons, where all out of town participants are
1 8 deemed to be motivated to travel to participate in the event, more than 80 percent of day-
1 9 visitor event attendees/participants are motivated to travel to the city for ocean-based and
20 waterfront events while 40 percent of overnight visitors are motivated to travel to the city
o 2 1 for ocean-based and waterfront events.
7 Tourist attendance/participation in ocean-based and waterfront events for 2013 was calculated by applying travel motivation data obtained through the Vancouver Waterfront Survey (2014) to attendance/participation rates as reported by event organizers in 2013. 8 Author's calculations based on Vancouver Waterfront Survey (2014) and attendance data provided by event organizers. Running and triathlon events were deemed to motivate 100% of out of town race tourism since athletes must pre-register for the events.
15 1 Total output value for overnight tourists and day-visitors' participation/attendance at
2 ocean-based or waterfront events was calculated as the product of average amount
3 spent per day and total number of visitors whose motivation to visit Vancouver was to
4 participate in/attend an ocean-based or waterfront event, and total number of visitors
5 who participated in/attended an ocean-based or waterfront event in Vancouver
6 regardless of whether the event was a primary travel motivation (participation rates vs.
7 travel motivation rates create a high-low range).
8 Total economic effects for overnight tourists participation in on-water recreation, and
9 overnight tourists' use of the beach and seawall were calculated using multipliers
10 derived from Tourism BC (2004) by Hotte and Sumaila (2012) for marine recreation
1 1 in British Columbia. Statistics Canada multipliers for performing arts, spectator sports
12 and related industries and heritage institutions (Statistics Canada 2010) were used to
13 calculate indirect and induced economic output value, employment and GDP for
14 overnight tourists and day-visitors' participation in ocean-based and waterfront events
1 5 and for day-visitors using Vancouver beaches and seawall. The growth rate applied is
16 the tourism growth rate for Metro Vancouver based on 10 years of visitor data from
1 7 2003-2012 (Tourism Vancouver Visitor Stats).
1 8 5. Locals-Beaches and seawall
19 Vancouver beaches attract over three million users per year,9 waterfront parks attract 20 another five million10 and the seawall, a scenic 22 kilometer path which meanders the 21 city's waterfront, attracts another 2.7 million users per year.11 Vancouver beaches are
22 popular with local residents and on an average day from the end of May to September, 54
23 percent of beach users are locals, another 23 percent are day-visitors from outside the
24 City of Vancouver and the remaining 23 percent are overnight tourists (Vancouver
25 Waterfront Survey 2014). Locals make up 64 percent of seawall users, while day-visitors
9 Annual beach usage reported by the City of Vancouver's official lifeguard counts from Victoria Day to Labour Day. Counts do not include grass/park users as these areas are not guarded. 10 Waterfront park usage derived from the Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014. See appendix I for a detailed description of methods used to develop this estimate. 11 Seawall usage estimated from Historic Seawall Counts - City of Vancouver Transportation Survey ZOOS- ZOOS. See appendix I for a detailed description of methods used to develop this estimate.
16 1 make up 13 percent of users, and overnight visitors make up 23 percent (Vancouver
2 Waterfront Survey 2014).
3 The most current census estimates the City of Vancouver's population at 603,502. Table 1
4 summarizes Vancouver residents' participation in ocean-dependent recreation in
5 Vancouver based on participation rates reported by Sorensen-Lawrence and Tourism BC
6 (2013). This is a snapshot of participation in Vancouver residents' participation ocean-
7 dependent recreation and does not include sports for which there was not publicly
8 available data such as paddleboarding, skimboarding and sailing.
Table 41: Vancouver resident participation in ocean-dependent 1? recreation (annual) Total Rate Activity Participation (%) COOOs) Ocean-side beach activities (incl. picnicking) 48 290 Swimming in the ocean 28 169 Whale watching/marine-based wildlife viewing 16 97 Motorized boating on the ocean 14 84 Sea kayaking/canoeing 18 109 Ocean fishing 18 169 12 (Data sources: Statistics Canada 2011; Kux and Wolfgang 2012; Sorensen-Lawrence 13 and Tourism BC 2013)
14 The economic contribution of local residents using the waterfront on their days off
15 was calculated as the product of average local spending per day (weighted by the
16 amount of time spent at the waterfront, e.g. 0.3 representing a few hours) and the total
17 number of annual local waterfront users using the waterfront on their day off who
1 8 reported that the waterfront was a) important to their decision to spend their day off in
19 Vancouver, and that b) they would travel elsewhere if the waterfront were not
20 available for use.
21 In including this calculation, it was assumed that locals have a choice in where to
22 recreate on their days off. Local expenditures relating to enjoyment of waterfront
17 1 amenities are akin to an export of goods and services, just as with tourism. This
2 assumption is supported by the large number of locals who use the waterfront on their
3 days off (95%), of whom 92 percent report that access to the waterfront is an
4 important decision to stay in Vancouver on their days off, and of whom 69 percent said
5 they would travel outside the City to pursue outdoor recreation activities if the
6 waterfront were unavailable. Statistics Canada amusement and recreational industries
7 multipliers (Statistics Canada 2010) were used to calculate indirect and induced
8 economic output value, employment and GDP.
9 Q. How was the economic contribution of the proposed Trans Mountain
10 Expansion Project calculated?
1 1 A. Estimates of regional economic benefits resulting from the TMEP were calculated
12 using projected regional employment and project-related expenditures reported by
13 Hodgson (2014) in "The Trans Mountain Expansion Project: Understanding the
14 Economic Benefits for Canada and its Regions," which was prepared on behalf of TMEP.
15 In order to estimate the economic benefit of the project within Vancouver and provide a
16 benchmark for the current analysis, the economic benefits of the TMEP within BC as
17 estimated by Hodgson (2014) were used but the current analysis does not provide any
18 verification of those estimates. Further, it was assumed that (i) there is a linear
19 relationship between the economic indicators (i.e. output value, employment, GDP) at the
20 national (i.e. Canada), provincial (e.g. BC), regional (e.g. Metro Vancouver) and local
21 (e.g. Vancouver) levels; ii) the proportion of workers employed in Metro Vancouver
22 relative to Canada as a whole during the development phase (25 percent, Sedley 2013;
23 Hodgson 2014) also holds true for the operations phase; iii) the proportion of overall
24 employment in Vancouver relative to Metro Vancouver also holds true for the TMEP
25 (InterVistas 2013); and iv) the Statistics Canada Provincial Input/Output Multipliers are
26 relevant at the local level. These assumptions were utilized in the absence of available
27 information in TMP (2013) regarding benefits of TMEP at the regional and local levels
28 and available input/output multipliers for Vancouver.
18 1 Hodgson (2014) estimated the total potential economic activity generated by the project
2 across Canada and at the provincial level over a 25-year period (2012-2037), including
3 development and operations phases, using information provided by TMP and Statistics
4 Canada Input/Output Multipliers.
5 Hodgson (2014) also estimated potential benefits to provincial (Alberta and
6 Saskatchewan) and federal governments and resulting from royalty and corporate income
7 tax payments; however, the effect on taxes was excluded because the analysis was
8 performed at the municipal level and insufficient data was available to identify impacts of
9 the project on municipal tax revenues.
10 The estimated expenditure of $4,580 million in 2012 dollars across Canada for project
11 development from Hodgson (2014), based on TMP (2013), was adjusted to $4,620
12 million in 2013 dollars for the current analysis. Approximately 69.5 percent ($3,200
1 3 million) of this development expenditure was estimated to occur in BC (Hodgson 2014).
14 Hodgson (2014) estimates additional annual direct output value and employment at $644
15 million and 342 PYs, respectively, during project operations, of which approximately 71
1 6 percent ($457 million in output value, 242 PYs of employment) will occur in BC.
17 Based on numbers reported by Hodgson (2014) and the assumptions referenced above,
1 8 the economic benefits of TMEP to the Vancouver economy was assumed to generate a
19 total of $2,700 million in output value, 9,346 PYs of employment and $1,700 million in
20 GDP to the Vancouver economy as set out in Table 7.
21 | Table 5?; Present value of economic effects of TMEP within Vancouver 22 over a 25-year period.
Contribution Value ofoutput Type of Impact Employment (2013, million) (PYs) to GDP (2013, million) Direct 1,220 5,758 1,081 Direct and Indirect 2,146 7,555 1,452 Total 2,717 9,346 1,701
19 1 Q. How was the potential impact of a tanker spill on key ocean-dependent
2 activities calculated?
3 In an expert report prepared for the City of Vancouver and Tsleil-Waututh Nation,
4 Genwest Systems Inc. created a two-dimensional model to analyze the spill trajectories of 5 four oil spill scenarios in the Burrard Inlet. A spill of 16,000 cubic metres (m3) was
6 modeled at each of three locations: i) First Narrows Bridge; ii) Second Narrows under the
7 Canadian National Railway Bridge; and iii) Outer Harbour at Anchorage #8. A fourth 8 spill of 8,000 cubic metres (m3) was modeled at the Westridge Marine Terminal. Scenario
9 modeling was conducted using GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling
10 Environment) and incorporated physical transport processes (e.g. tidal currents), a
1 1 constant wind, and historical observed wind and tide data (Genwest 2015).
12 Based on results from the four spill scenarios, Genwest concludes that the models
1 3 "provide a realistic representation of the behavior of oil spills in Burrard Inlet [and] can
14 therefore be used to realistically evaluate the possible extent of oil spread resulting from a
15 spill at the Terminal, Second Narrows, First Narrows, and the Outer Harbour
1 6 locations."(p8) The confined setting of the inlet can result in oil spreading quickly with
17 potential to affect the entire inlet from the Port Moody and Indian Arms, to the Outer
1 8 Harbour and beyond (Genwest 2015). Winds and tides are major drivers of oil movement
1 9 in the inlet with strong winds tending to strand oil on the leeward shore while weak winds
20 allow tidal currents to distribute oil over a larger area (Genwest 2015). Stochastic
21 modeling also revealed that a substantial amount of oil was beached under the spill
22 scenarios at the Westridge Marine Terminal, First Narrows and Second Narrows
23 (Genwest 2015).
24 The First Narrows spill scenario was identified as having high potential to cause severe
25 economic disruption to the City of Vancouver and thus was the spill scenario used in this
26 economic analysis to identify the possible high end of the range of impacts to the
27 Vancouver economy in the event of a spill. Using Genwest's model, the City of
20 1 Vancouver's GIS and CAD department created an oil spill analysis map which shows the
2 percentage of oil in each of the three zones of the Burrard Inlet (i.e. Outer Harbour, Inner
3 Harbour, other areas which includes Central Harbour, Port Moody Arm and Indian Arm)
4 24 hours after a spill at the First Narrows (Figure 4).
5 Figure 4 shows that virtually all stretches the City of Vancouver waterfront could be
6 affected by a spill at the First Narrows at any time of year.
KBEISEIUimil ygE:;!
4!
21 1 Figure 14: Dispersion of oil after 24 hours from a 16,000 m3 spill at the 2 First Narrows.
3 Three spill scenarios, a 'no spill' scenario, a 'May spill' scenario and an 'October spill'
4 scenario were modeled numerically, by activity, and category, where applicable, based on 5 recovery times listed in Table 512. These impacts are based on the case studies identified
6 above. The May and October spills were modeled to occur in the year 201 8.
Table 65: Assumed industry growth rates, spill impacts and market recovery times
Annua! Impact Industry Growth Segment Market Impact Duration Rate (%) Closure of all affected areas in Commercial Dungeness Crab, -3.57 Year 1, 1-2 years14 fishing Spot Prawn -50% in Year 2 (catch)13
Closure of all affected areas;- Port activities 0.5 Shipping 2-4 days16 65% per day (output value)15
20% in Year 1 0 Cruises 1-5 years18 (# of tourists)17
Inner harbour Float plane 15% in Year 1 2.95 3 months20 transportation travel (# of travellers)19 Ocean- Shoreline use 38% in Year 1 dependent 0.09 8 months22 (locals) (# of trips) 21 tourism
12 The 'no spill' scenario assumes no hydrocarbon spill and thus the market impacts and market duration
are zero. 13 Freese & O'Claire (1995) 14 Freese & O'Claire (1995) 15 Port of Houston Authority (2012); Powell (2014). 16 Cook (2014); Kuo (2014); McConnaughey (2014b). 17 Oxford Economics (2009). 18 Oxford Economics (2009). 19 Aldy (2013). 20 Aldy (2013). 21 Stratus Consulting (2010). 22 Stratus Consulting (2010).
22 Ocean- Shoreline use 20% in Year 1 „ „ 24 fee" a90 (touriste) (# of tourists)- 2-8V^^
1 The present value of the economic indicator (1) for the five ocean-dependent economic
2 activities (a) and the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project under each of the three
3 spill scenarios were calculated over time (t), expressed as:
T
PV,=
t=0
4 where Xi a t represents the value of the economic indicator i (i.e. output value, GDP),
5 Vi ^ employment, a denotes the industry t = 0...24 (in years) and the parameter d is the
6 discount factor determined using the appropriate rate of discount applicable to the region.
7 The values of these indicators were calculated for a 25-year time period (2013-2037)
8 using a real discount rate of three percent which is a rate considered reasonable for
9 environmental projects (Heal 2000; Sumaila & Walters 2005). Economic impacts
10 associated with tanker spill scenarios were calculated and reported as the difference
11 between present values of total economic effects on indicators under the three spill
12 scenarios.
1 3 Scenario One: No Spill
14 The "no spill" scenario presents a 25-year baseline for projected industry development in
1 5 the absence of a tanker spill, against which to compare the potential tanker spill impacts.
16 Average annual growth rates derived from historical data were used to project future
17 conditions for the economic indicators (i.e. economic output, employment and GDP) of
1 8 Vancouver's five key ocean-dependent economic activities and does not address potential
23 EVOS Trustee Council (2010); Oxford Economics (2009). 24 Oxford Economics (2009).
23 1 future growth in existing or new ocean-dependent activities. The baseline values of the
2 five ocean-dependent economic activities are summarized in Table 6.
3 Table 76: Current annual economic indicators for ocean-dependent activities 4 within the City of Vancouver (2013)
Value of Contribution Employment Industry output (PYs) to GDP (2013, million) (2013, million) Commercial fishing 1-3 5-16 0.6-0.7 Port activities* 5,836 25,932 2,693 - shipping 4,884 20,173 2,160 - cruises 952 5,759 533 Inner harbour transportation* 74 300 30 Ocean-dependent tourisin+ 377-620 5,171-9,126 259-444 - on-water activities 26-136 510-2,700 22-117 - beaches and seawall 292-402 4,001-5,502 204-281 - water-based/waterfront events 59-82 661-924 33-46 Ocean-dependent recreation 145-170 1,114-1,307 78-92 32,523 Total All Industries 6,433-6,703 3,061-3,261 36,681 Numbers may not add up due to rounding
6 * Figures reported by InterVISTAS Consulting 2008, 2012. A range of values was not 7 provided. 8 *Estimates are based on CHX passenger data from 2013. Multi-year data was not available 9 and thus, a range of values is not provided. 10 + Sum of Tourism-waterfront events, on-water activities, beaches and waterfront (not 11 Including cruise ship tourism)
12 Ocean-dependent activities contribute a total of $6,430-$6,700 million in output value,
13 32,523-36,681 FYs of employment and $3,060 -$3,260 million in GDP to the Vancouver
14 economy each year. Based on a proportion of working age individuals (74.6%) (Statistics
15 Canada Census 2011) and a regional unemployment rate of (5.9%) (Service Canada
16 2015), ocean-dependent activities are estimated to directly employ four percent of the
17 Vancouver population. When indirect and induced values are also considered, ocean-
18 dependent activities provide employment for an equivalent of eight percent of the
1 9 Vancouver population.
20 Scenario Two: Spill in May
24 1 The Vancouver economy could experience large losses under a May spill scenario since
2 approximately 50 percent of ocean-dependent economic activity occurs between May 15
3 and September 1 each year. Durations of potential market impacts are reported in Table
4 8.
5 A spill of 16,000 m3 at the First Narrows could close DFO Management Area 28, sub-
6 areas 6-14 resulting in no spot prawn or Dungeness catch by commercial fisheries during
7 the season and reduced catch the following year. Commercial fisheries closures would
8 reduce revenues to local fishers for the duration of any negative market and ecosystem
9 impacts. The Vancouver shellfish processing sector is reliant on biomass from outside
10 DFO Management Area 28, and would experience increased losses due to reduced catch
11 in other DFO Management areas that are not covered in this study.
12 Effects on port shipping operations are assumed to be short in duration (i.e. between two
13 and four days) based on previous spill events in other locations. The length of closure
14 could easily exceed 4 days if the first narrows were closed to facilitate spill response and
15 clean-up. Impacts on port operations are assumed to affect 65 percent of daily output
1 6 value.
1 7 Commercial floatplane operations could also be affected more severely under a May spill
18 scenario as impacts would be felt during the busiest quarter of annual operations.
19 Cancelled flights and fewer passengers would result in reduced revenues over an
20 estimated three-month period.
21 Impacts on the cruise ship industry, ocean-dependent tourism (on-water activities,
22 beaches and seawall, and water-based and waterfront events) and local use of the
23 waterfront would be felt immediately in the event of a spill in May (i.e. preceding the
24 tourist season). Lower tourism participation would result in reduced revenues generated
25 through these activities. Based on historical spill events in other locations, duration of the
26 recovery period for the tourism sector could be between one and five years for the cruise
27 industry, two and eight years for ocean-dependent tourism and up to eight months for
28 local use of the waterfront.
25 Table 8: Present value of losses to ocean-dependent activities in the City of Vancouver over a 25-year period; May spill scenario.
Value of Contribution Employment Industry output to GDP (PYs) (2013, millions) (2013, millions) Commercial Fishing Direct 0.4-2.4 3-15 0.2-1.4 Direct and Indirect 0.6-3.6 4-22 0.3-2 Total 0.7-4.1 4-25 0.4-2.2 Port Activities-Shipping Direct 4-23 18-103 1-8 Direct and Indirect 8-44 37-211 3-19 Total 10-55 50-283 4-25 Port Activities-Cruises
Direct 92-272 413-1,277 34-100 Direct and Indirect 177-525 843-2,605 75-223 Total 221-655 1,131-3,494 102-302 Inner harbour transportation
Direct 2 9 1 Direct and Indirect 4 18 1 Total 5 23 2 Tourism-On-water
Direct 4-57 69-1,111 2-27 Direct and Indirect 5-83 114-1,832 4-54 Total 7-100 156-2,526 6-86 Tourism-Beaches and seawall Direct 38-151 583-2,443 18-72 Direct and Indirect 59-233 926-3,880 35-137 Total 74-294 1,228-5,146 52-205 Tourism-Waterfront events Direct 7-30 142-607 4-16 Direct and Indirect 12-47 181-773 6-26 Total 15-60 203-864 8-34 Ocean-dependent recreation Direct 22-26 250-293 11-13 Direct and Indirect 37-43 366-429 19- 22 Total 48-57 443-519 26-31 Total losses-all industries Direct 170-563 1,487-5,857 71-238 Direct and Indirect 302-982 2,488-9,796 144-484 Total 380-1,230 3,238-12,881 201-687
26 1 The present value of total losses to output values resulting from a tanker spill in this
2 scenario is estimated to be in the range of $380-$l,230 million while 3,238-12,881 PY of
3 employment could be lost within Vancouver. The present value of lost GDP is estimated
4 to be in the range of $201 -$687 million. Notwithstanding the narrowness of the current
5 analysis in terms of the number of ocean-related economic activities covered, these losses
6 are large compared to the potential economic benefits of the Trans Mountain Expansion
7 Project.
8 Scenario Three: Spill in October
9 Under an October spill scenario, the closure of DFO Management Area 28, sub-areas 6
10 14 would occur after the spot prawn and Dungeness crab harvest, resulting in slightly
1 1 smaller losses of revenue than a May spill. The effects of an October spill, however,
12 could be felt during the following year, hence there is not a substantial difference
1 3 between the estimated losses under the May and October spill scenarios.
14 Effects on shipping operations are assumed to be the same in spring and fall, with a
15 minimum two-day closure and a maximum four-day closure, leading to an estimated
1 6 reduction in output value of 65 percent per day. Commercial floatplane operations are
17 not estimated to be affected as severely under an October scenario because commercial
1 8 ridership reaches its seasonal peak during the summer.
19 Impacts on cruises and ocean-dependent tourism (on-water activities, beaches and
20 seawall, and water-based and waterfront events) could be experienced during spring and
21 summer of the year following an October spill event. The estimated economic impact is
22 slightly less severe than under a May spill scenario, since the industry may not suffer lost
23 revenues during the year of an October spill event.
24 Local use of the waterfront may be less severely impacted under an October spill scenario
25 and there may be no immediate economic losses because local use of the waterfront
27 1 peaks between late May and early September. Impacts may be relatively short in duration
2 (e.g. eight months) and felt only in late spring of the following year.
Table 9: Present value of losses to ocean-dependent activities in the City of Vancouver over a 25-year period; October spill scenario.
Value of Contribution Employment Industry output to GDP (PYs) (2013, millions) (2013, millions) Commercial Fishing Direct 0.4-2 2-14 0.2-1 Direct and Indirect 0.6-3 4-21 0.3-1.8 Total 0.7-3.7 4-24 0.4-2 Port Activities-Shipping Direct 4-23 18-103 1-8 Direct and Indirect 8-44 37-211 3-19 Total 10-55 50-283 4-25 Port Activities-Cruises Direct 47-223 218-1,078 17-82 Direct and Indirect 91-430 445-2,200 38-183 Total 113-537 597-2,959 52-248 Inner harbor transportation Direct 0.6 2 0.2 Direct and Indirect 1 5 0.4 Total 1.3 6 0.5 Tourism-On-water activities
Direct 2-49 32-997 0.8-23 Direct and Indirect 2-72 53-1,644 2-47 Total 3-87 73-2,266 3-75 Tourism-Beaches and seawall Direct 25-131 401-2,192 12-63 Direct and Indirect 39-203 637-3,481 23-119 Total 10-52 845-4,618 35-179 Tourism-Waterfront events Direct 5- 26 98-545 3-14 Direct and Indirect 8-41 125-694 4-23 Total 10-52 139-776 6-29 Ocean-dependent recreation Direct 13-14 145-165 6-7 Direct and Indirect 21-23 213-242 11-12 Total 27-31 258-293 15-17 Total losses-all activities
28 Direct 97-470 918-5,096 41-199 Direct and Indirect 170-818 1,518-8,496 82-405 Total 215-1,024 1,972-11,216 115-575
1 Spill impacts comparison: May vs. October
2 Table 10 presents a comparison of the estimated present value of losses to ocean-
3 dependent activities in Vancouver in the event of spill at the First Narrows in May
4 (spring) and in October (fall) over a 25-year period.
Table 10: Comparison of estimated present value economic impacts of May and
Contribution to Value of output Employment Losses GDP (2013, (2013, millions) (FYs) millions) Total Losses-Spill in May 380-1,230 3,238-12,881 201-687 Total Losses-Spill in October 215-1,024 1,972-11,216 115-575 Difference between seasons 165-206 1,266-1,666 86-112 May losses as % of October losses 120-170 115-164 119-174
5 If spill size is held constant, Vancouver's five key ocean-dependent economic activities
6 are estimated to experience greater losses in the event of a spill in May, compared to a
7 spill in October, due to the seasonality of output value of ocean-dependent economic
8 activities in Vancouver. Commercial fisheries (i.e. spot prawn and Dungeness crab), Inner
9 Harbour transportation, cruises, ocean-dependent tourism (on-water recreation, beaches
1 0 and seawall, ocean-based and waterfront events) and local use of the beaches, waterfront
11 and seawall could all experience greater losses in the event of a spill in May, which
1 2 would have an immediate effect on output value.
29 APPENDIX A TO THE WRITTEN EVIDENCE OF RASHID SUMAILA
CV of Rashid Sumaila THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA Curriculum Vitaefor Faculty Members
Date: May 2015 Initials: URS
1. SURNAME: Sumaila FIRST NAME: Ussif Rashid
MIDDLE NAMECS): 2. DEPARTMENT/SCHOOL: Fisheries Centre
3 FACULTY: Faculty of Science
4 PRESENT RANK: Professor SINCE: July 1, 2010
5- POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION
University or Institution Degree Subject Area Dates University of Bergen Ph.D. 1 Economics ] 1996 University of Bergen M.Sc. Economics 1 1993 Ahmadu Bello University B.Sc. | Quantity Surveying | 1986
6. EMPLOYMENT RECORD
(a) Prior to coming to UBC
University, Company or Organization Rank or Title Dates
Chr. Michelsen Institute, Bergen Snr. Research Fellow 1995-1999 Chr. Michelsen Institute, Bergen Research Fellow 1993 - 1995 Foundation for Research in Economics and Business Researcher 1993 Administration, Bergen
Department of Economics, University of Bergen, Norway Assistant lecturer 1990-91
(b) At UBC
Rank or Title Department Dates Full Professor Fisheries Centre 07/2010 - present Director Fisheries Centre 11/2008 - 06/2013 (acting from Nov. 1, 2008 to Mar 30, 2009) Associate (with tenure) Professor Fisheries Centre 07/2006 - 06/2010
Assistant Professor Fisheries Centre 2002-2006
Research Associate Fisheries Centre 1999-2002 Adjunct Professor Fisheries Centre 1996 - 1999 Visiting scholar Fisheries Centre 1995-1996 Page 2/42
7. TEACHING
(a) Areas ofspecial interest and accomplishments
Environmental and Natural Resource Economics; Applied Game Theory; and Fisheries Economics.
(b) Courses Taught at UBC
, , ...aas Session Course Scheduled Class 11 Hours Taught Number Hours Size Lectures Tutorials Labs Other
2015W1 Fish 508 48 7 7 0 0 0 2014W1 Fish 520 10 8 8 0 0 0
2013W1 Fish 520 10 6 8 0 0 0
2013W2 Fish Econ 508 48 8 48 0 0 0
2012W1 Fish 520 10 6 8 0 0 0
2012W2 Fish Econ 508 48 10 48 0 0 0
2011W1 Fish 520 10 8 8 0 0 0
2011W2 Fish Econ 506 48 8 48 0 0 0 2010W 2 Fish Econ 506 48 7 48 0 0 0 2009W 1 ISCI 330 48 SO 48 0 0 0 2009W2 Fish Econ 506 48 10 48 0 0 0 2008W2 Fish Econ 506 48 10 48 0 0 0
2008W1 ISCI 330 48 12 48 0 0 0
2008W2 Econ 371 48 106 36 0 0 12
2007W 1 ISCI 330 48 12 1 0 0 0
2007W2 Econ 371 48 106 36 0 0 12 2006W1 Fish 506 48 12 1 0 0 5 2006W2 Econ 371 48 126 36 0 0 12 2005W2 Econ 371 48 126 36 0 0 12 2004W2,S Econ 371 48 149 36 0 0 12 20032,8 Econ 371 48 100 36 0 0 12 2002W1 Fish 506 6 IO 1 0 0 5 2002W2 Fish 502 12 8 12 0 0 O
2001W1 AGEC 520 36 12 36 0 0 0
2001W1 Fish 506 12 8 12 0 0 O 2000W1 Fish 501 6 8 1 0 0 5 * Wi & 2 are Winters terms 1 & 2, respectively. * S denotes summer term.
c) Visiting Lecturer (indicate university/organization and dates)
Oxford University Visiting Professor 2013-2014 East China Normal University Guest Professor 2009-present University of Ghana Visiting Professor 2007-present
University of Tromso, Norway Visiting Professor 1999-2001
University of Namibia Visiting Professor 1999-2009
University of West Indies, Cave Hill, Barbados Visiting Professor 2003 Page 3/42
(d) Student Name Program Start date Department
Anna Schuhbauer Doctoral 2012 Fisheries Centre Sarah Harper Doctoral 2013 Fisheries Centre Allison Witter Doctoral 2014 Fisheries Centre
Rebecca Singleton Doctoral 2014 Fisheries Centre Darah Gibson Masters 2014 Fisheries Centre
(e) Current Graduate Student Committees
Student Name Program Department Ravi Maharaj PhD Fisheries Centre Danielle Edwards PhD Fisheries Centre Sarah Hawkshaw PhD Fisheries Centre Michelle Jones MSc Simon Fraser Univ. Rachael Louton PhD Fisheries Centre Lucas Brotz PhD Fisheries Centre Eric Angel PhD Simon Fraser Univ. Myriam Khalfallah MSc Fisheries Centre Dalai Al-Abdulrazzak PhD Fisheries Centre Shannon Obradovich PhD Fisheries Centre Aaron Greenberg PhD Fisheries Centre
'f) Graduated Students
Student Name Program Role lst/current position (Completion after completion date) Andres M. Cisneros-Montemayor PhD (2014) Supervisor Post-doc, Fisheries Centre Andrea Haas Masters (2014) Supervisor Research Associate at Cape Eleuthera Institute, Bahamas Vicky Lam PhD (2013) Supervisor Post-doc, Fisheries Centre Teresa Ryan PhD (2013) Co-Supervisor Consultant Wilf Swartz PhD (2013) Supervisor Research Associate Fisheries Centre Dale Marsden PhD (2012) Supervisor DFO Economist, Ottawa Megan Bailey PhD (2012) Supervisor Post-Doc, Wageningen University, Netherlands [Starts CRC 2 position at Dalhousie in August, 2015] Nigel Haggan PhD (2012) Co-supervisor Own consultancy Berchie Asiedu (Univ. of Sunyani) PhD (2012) Co-supervisor Lecturer, the University of Energy and Natural Resources Page 4/42
Liesbeth van der Meer Masters (2012) Supervisor Oceana, Chile Office Louise Teh PhD (2011) Supervisor Post Doc, Fisheries Centre Gakushi Ishimura PhD (2010) Supervisor Assistant professor, Hokaido University, Japan [Begins new position as Associate Professor in May 2014, University Iwate, Japan] Andres M. Cisneros-Montemayor Masters (2010) Supervisor PhD student, UBC Ben Starkhouse Masters (2009) Supervisor Working for an NGO in Washington State Yajie Liu PhD (2008) Supervisor Research Fellow, SINTEF, Univ. of Trondheim, Norway Siv Reithe (Univ. of Tromso, Norway) PhD (2007) Co- supervisor Researcher, University of Tromso, Norway
Ahmed Khan (UBC) MSc (2007) Supervisor Obtained his PhD from Memorial Univ.; Postdoc at St Mary's Univ.. Halifax Megan Bailey (UBC) MSc (2007) Supervisor Obtained her PhD at UBC Heather Keith (UBC) MSc (2007) Supervisor Working for an International Consultancy in Vancouver Louise Teh (UBC) MSc (2006) Supervisor Obtained her PhD from UBC Falcao Mario (Stellenbosch University, PhD (2005) Co-supervisor Professor, South Africa) Departamento de Engenharia Florestal, Maputo, Mozambique Eunice Konadu-Twum (Univ. of Masters Co-supervisor Assistant Lecturer, Ghana) Univ. of Ghana Dyhia Belhabib PhD PhD (2014) Committee member Postdoc, Fisheries Centre Frederic Le Manach PhD (2014) Committee member Working for Bloom, Paris Krista Greer MSc (2014) Committee member Research assistant, Fisheries Centre Lisa Boonzaier MSc (2014) Committee member Working for an NGO in Cape Town Aylin Ulman MSc (2014) Committee member PhD Student in Europe Brajgeet Bhathal PhD (2014) Committee member Research Associate, Fisheries Centre Maria Cristina Infante PhD (2014) Committee member Defended her thesis on March 7, 2014 Rhona Govender MSc (2013) Committee member Unknown Tabitha Malloiy (John Hopkins) PhD (2013) Committee member Post Doc, Princeton- Harvard "China and the World" Program Leah Beary PhD (2013) Committee member Working for an NGO Page 5/42
Ahmed Khan (Memorial) PhD (2012) Committee member Post Doc, Memorial University Dawit Tesfamichael PhD (2012) Committee member Post Doc, Fisheries Centre Lydia Teh PhD (2011) Committee member Post Doc, Fisheries Centre Divya Alice Varkey PhD (2010) Committee member Scientist, B.C. Ministry of the Environment Eny Buchaiy PhD (2010) Committee member Stockholm Resilience Centre Adam Soliman (UBC-Food &Resource MSc (2010) Committee member Director of the Economics) Fisheries Law Centre Maria Jose Espinosa Romero (UBC- MSc (2010) Committee member Working for an NGO in IRES) Mexico Marivic Pajaro PhD (2009) Committee member Works for the Haribon Foundation, Quezon City, Philippines Jennifer Jacquet PhD (2009) Committee member Faculty at NYU, New York William Cheung PhD (2007) Committee member Assistant professor, UBC Fisheries Centre Stephanie McWhinnie PhD (2007) Committee member Lecturer (Assistant professor), Univ. of Adelaide Ainsworth Cameron PhD (2005) Committee member Assistant professor, Univ. of South Florida Ahmed Gelchu PhD (2007) Committee member Works for BC Hydro, Vancouver Louisa Wood PhD (2007) Committee member Scientist, UNEP - World Conservation Monitoring Centre Sarah Klein (UBC, IRES) MSc (2010) Committee member PhD student at the IRES Sarika Cullis-Suzuki MSc (2009) Committee member PhD student at York University, U.K. Richard Stanford MSc (2002) Committee member Works for an NGO in England Wilf Swartz MSc (2004) Committee member Obtained his PhD from UBC Brajgeet Bhathal MSc (2006) Committee member Obtained his PhD from UBC q) Post docs (PDs) and Research assistants (RAs) Name Research Andres M. Cisneros-Montemayor (PD, joint supervision Bioeconomics with Cheung), 2014 - present Dana Miller (PD), 2012 - present International fisheries management and economics Louise Teh (PD), 2011 - present Small scale fisheries management and economics Ngaio Hotte (RA), 2011 - 2014 Economic impacts of oil spills Ling Huang (PD), 2010 - 2011 Global fisheries economics and management Henrik Osterblom (PD), 2009 - 2010 Illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing Andrew Dyck (RA), 2008 - 2011 Global fisheries economics and management Louise Teh (RA), 2006-2007 Small-scale fisheries Liesbeth van Der Meer (RA), 2008-2009 Fish retail markets Page 6/42
(h) Visitors to my lab since 2005 Name Affiliation Katie Tooley (Masters Student) UBC Economics Department Sabrina Giorgi (Masters Student) University of Paris-Dauphine, France Cindy Bae (Masters Student) UBC Land and Food Systems Sabrina Giorgi (Masters Student) University of Paris-Dauphine, France Carlos Gaspar (Economist and Director) Nature, Economy and Environmental Policy (NGO), Argentina Ayaa K. Armah (Senior Lecturer) University of Ghana, West Africa Patrizia Abdallah (Associate Professor) Federal University of Rio Grande, Brazil Mahamudu Bawumia (former deputy Governor of the Bank of Ghana Central Bank of Ghana) Matt Berman (Professor) University of Alaska, Juneau Marcos Dominguez-Torreiro (Researcher) Universidade de Vigo,Spain Berchie Asiedu (PhD Student) University of Ghana Sebastian Villasante (PhD student) The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics Max Stoeven (PhD Student) University of Kiel, Germany Ruth Pincinato (Masters Student) Universidade de Sao Paulo, Brazil Anne Doeksen (Masters Student) Wageningen University, Netherlands Anne Reijbroek (Masters Student) Wageningen University, Netherlands
8. SCHOLARLY AND PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
(a) Areas ofspecial interest and accomplishments
Environmental and Resource Economics, Globalization, Fish Trade and Sustainability, Applied Game Theory, Sustainable Development, Computational Economics. I currently focus on three related themes: (i) coastal and marine ecosystem valuation and bioeconomics (i.e., human-environmental) modeling of coastal and marine ecosystems that address topical issues such the use of spatial marine protected areas as coastal and ocean management tools; (ii) the analysis of the economic, social and food security issues related to threats to coastal and marine ecosystems such as climate change, ocean acidification and oil spills; and (iii) the analysis of global coastal and marine ecosystem policy issues such as fisheries subsidies, illegal fishing, trade in fish and fisheries products, and their effects on marine conservation goals and policies.
(b) Research or equivalent grants (indicate under COMP whether grants were obtained competitively (C) or non-competitively (NC)
Granting Subject Comp. $ Year 1 Principal Co- Agency Investigator Investigator Cs) C or NC Total/ Per Year
Social Sciences OceanCanada C 2.5 mil/ 2014 R. Sumaila William and Humanities 416,667 Cheung and Research 2020 others Council, Canada (SSHRC)
ADM Capital Ocean Asia 100,000 2014 R. Sumaila Foundation
City of Potential economic C 35,ooo 2014 R. Sumaila N. Hotte Vancouver impact of an oil spill in the Burrard Inlet Page 7/42
West Coast Ecosystem Services C 16,500 2014 R. Sumaila N. Hotte Environmental and Sea Level Rise Law Center
Natural Science Maintaining C 900,000/ 2013 K. McCann R. Sumaila and Engineering productivity and and others 300,000 Research incomes in Tonic 2016 Council, Canada Sap fishery (NSERC) (Cambodia) in the face of climate change
Peter Wall International C 37,500/ 2013 R. Sumaila Institute for Research C. Nauen 37,500 Advance Roundtable 2014 S. Meltzoff Studies, the Spaceship Earth - University of Meeting challenges British for living on the Blue Columbia Planet under siege
Global Ocean Economics of High NC 78,000/ 2013 R. Sumaila Commission, Sea Fisheries 39,ooo Somerville, 2014 Oxford Univ.
Social Sciences Too big to ignore: A C 2.5 mil/ 2012 R. R. Sumaila and Humanities global study of small Chuenpagdee 416,667 And others Research scale fisheries 2017 Council, Canada (SSHRC)
Convention GBO4 scenario C 40,000/ 2012 R. Sumaila W. Cheung; V. on study on the Christensen 20,000 Biological Strategic Plan and 2014 Diversity The Aichi Biodiversity Targets
Norwegian Strengthening the C 1 million/ 2013 Nils Chr. Sumaila, and Research adaptive capacity of Stenseth, Kjell others 250,000 Council institutions in 2016 Arne Brekke fishery
International Ecological and NC 25,000 2013 R. Sumaila Atomic Economic Impacts
Energy Agency of Ocean 2015 Acidification Due to Climate Change
AMAP (Arctic Arctic Ocean NC 15,000 2013 R. Sumaila Council) Acidification Pew Charitable Forage Fish species NC 40,950/ 2012 R. Sumaila Thomas A. Trusts in the South Atlantic Okey 20,475 Region 2013
World Wildlife Economic valuation NC 25,000 2012 R. Sumaila Fund of ocean-based activities for EC's North Coast Page 8/42
World Wide Modeling the socio NC 10,000 2012 R. Sumaila W. Cheung Fund for Nature economic impacts of Hong Kong two large reclamations on the recovery of the marine ecosystem and fisheries in Hong Kong
National Investigation of NC 109,724/ 2011 R. Sumaila W. Cheung Geographic natural processes 21,944 Society with emphasis on 2015 ocean responses to fishing, climate change, and other human impacts
Pew Charitable Economics of shark NC 8,500 2011 R. Sumaila Trusts watching
2012 Pew Charitable Western and Central NC 44,345 2011 R. Sumaila Trusts Pacific Ocean tuna
subsidies and 2012 economic values
Conservation Ocean Health Index NC 24,000 2011 R. Sumaila International
Pew Charitable Global fisheries NC 38,000 2011 R. Sumaila Trusts economics
Social Sciences SSHRC Re- C 1,500 2010 R. Sumaila and Humanities application award Research Funding Council of Canada (SSHRC) Funding
Canadian Small Scale c 10,000 2010 R. Sumaila Commonwealth Fisheries and Exchange Poverty Alleviation Program in Ghana - Support for PhD Candidate Berchie Asiedu
United Nations Green Economy NC 90,000/ 2009 R. Sumaila Environmental Report on Fisheries 45,ooo Programme 2010 Pew Charitable Global Ocean NC 738,000/ 2008 R. Sumaila Trusts Economics Project 246,000
2011 Inter-American Climate change, C 108,000/ 2008 P. Abdalla, R. Sumaila Institute (IAI) Oceanographic 54,ooo University of variability and the 2009 Rio Grande, artisanal fisheries of Brazil the SW Atlantic: A human dimensions approach Pew Fellowship Large scale C 150,000/ 2008 R. Sumaila for Marine bioeconomics 50,000
Conservation 2011 Page 9/42
Peter Wall Fisheries Economics C 6,000 2007 R. Sumaila Institute 2008 Social Sciences Coastal C 136,299/ 2007 R. R. Sumaila and Humanities Connections: 45,433 Chuenpagdee, Research Interactive 2010 Memorial Council, Canada governance model University (SSHRC) for sustainable coastal development
Kingfisher Coral reef resource NC 152,500/ 2007 R. Sumaila Foundation valuation 76,250 2009
Natural Easing the pain of NC 26,000 2007 R. Sumaila Resources Fishers during Defense Council Fisheries 2008 Adjustments WWF-US Economics of Coral NC 25,000 2007 R. Sumaila triangle marine resource use 2008 North Pacific Estimating the Cost C 72,784/ 2005 M. Berman, R. Sumaila Universities to Fisheries of 36,392 University of Marine Marine Mammal 2006 Alaska Mammal Critical Habitat Research Designations Consortium North Pacific Valuation of Critical c 74,275/ 2005 M. Berman, R. Sumaila Research Board, Habitat 37,138 University of 2006 Alaska Conservation Economic study of c 60120/ 2005 R. Sumaila International Raja Ampat 30,060 ecosystem in 2006 Indonesia
European Valuation of marine c 690,000/ 2005 R. Sumaila Commission Ecosystems Services 230,000 2008 AquaNet, Abalone project c 96,000/ 2005 R. Sumaila Canada 48,000 2006
Global Benguela Current NC 39,ooo 2004 R. Sumaila Environmental Commission Study Facility, UN
Canadian Ecological and NC 17,000 2004 R. Sumaila Sablefish economic analysis of Association sablefish farming
Global Optimal landing C 136,000/ 2003 R. Sumaila Environmental strategies for hake in 68,000 Facility, UN Namibia and South 2005 Africa
SSHRC, Creating a Positive C 10,000/ 2004 R. R. Sumaila Canadian Future for Fisheries 5,ooo Chuenpagdee, Research Worldwide 2005 Memorial Council University Page 10/42
Environment Fish trade and C 7,274 2004 R. Sumaila Canada sustainability (Graduate student grants)
Environment Economics of C 5,000 2004 R. Sumaila Canada aquaculture (Graduate student grant)
Research Namibian Fisheries C 24,000 2003 R. Sumaila Council of
Norway 2005
OECD Economics of IUU NC 12,800 2004 R. Sumaila Fishing
OCEANA US Marine NC 114,750 2004 R. Sumaila Ecosystem Valuation
WWFUSA Aquaculture NC 7,000 2003 R. Sumaila (Graduate student
grant) 2004
Globec Valuation of marine NC 2,927 2003 R. Sumaila ecosystems
Research Valuation of marine NC 2,400 2003 R. Sumaila Council of ecosystems Norway
The Research Economics of C 50,000/ 2000 R. Sumaila Council of Marine Protected 25,000
Norway Areas 2001 The European Markets and Global NC 15,000/ 1999 R. Sumaila Commission Fisheries 5000 The Research Bioeconomic C 75,000/ 1997 R. Sumaila Council of Modeling of 25,000 Norway Namibian hake 1999 fisheries Department of Logical Decision NC 25,000 1996 T. Pitcher, R. Sumaila Fisheries and Analysis Modeling UBC Fisheries Oceans Centre The Research International NC 18,000 2000 R. Sumaila Council of Conference on the Norway Economics of Marine Protected Areas The Research Game Theoretic C 40,000/ 1994 R. Sumaila Council of Models of Fishing 13,300 Norway 1997 The Research Integrating c 52,000 1993 Arild Angelsen R. Sumaila Council of Environmental Norway Concerns into Current Project Appraisal Practices Page 11/42
(c) Invited Presentations
(i) High Impact Public Policy Presentations
• Addis Ababa, September 15, 2014: The economic and social rationale for the establishment of a Pan African Blue Ocean Institute. AU-GOC-A£DB Meeting, African Union Headquarters.
• Vancouver, March 29, 2014: The sustainability of the global ocean, Vancouver Institute Public Lecture.
• New York, February 18, 2014: "Why Pacific Small Island States should care about the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction". A briefing to a group of Ambassadors of Pacific Island States Missions at the United Nations.
• New York, November 20, 2013: "Why Caribbean countries should care about high seas biodiversity?" Caribbean Ambassadors' Briefing, United Nations.
• New York, November 18, 2013: "Why African countries should care about high seas biodiversity?" African Union Ambassadors' Briefing, United Nations.
• Geneva, October 21, 2013: "A Re-estimation of Global Fisheries Subsidies". Talk at the World Trade Organization.
Brussels, October 17, 2013: "Global Fisheries Subsidies". Presentation at the European Parliament, Committee on Fisheries.
Cape Town, March 22, 2013: "Global ocean economics". Presentation to members of the Global Ocean Commission fwww.gIobaloceancommission.org/').
Ottawa, November 27, 2012: "The Value and Opportunities of Healthy Oceans" at the "Oceans on the Hill" event hosted by Canada's All Party Ocean Caucus and WWF-Canada.
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, October 23-25, 2012: Harnessing Fishery Resources: Swimming the Tide to Africa's Development". African Development Forum VIII, theme: "Governing & Harnessing Natural Resources for Growth and Development." [audience was over 1000 people],
Washington, D.C., July 12, 2012; A hearing of the US congressional subcommittee on Investigations, Oversight and Regulation entitled "Sinking the Marine Industry: How regulations are affecting today's maritime businesses".
Rio de Janeiro, June 16-19, 2012: Panellist at Rio+20 Sustainable Development Dialogues Oceans panel session. The audience was about 2000 people, including Kings, Queens, Nobel Prize winners and high- level government officials.
Nairobi, April 4-5, 2012; "The management of fish stocks and the importance of fish for food security in Africa". United Nations human rights summit on the Right to Food.
Singapore, February 22-24, 2012: Debate: "Feeding the world - are oceans the solution?". Session entitled "Biodiversity; threats and opportunities". World Oceans Summit.
London, February 3, 2012: Address at the Prince's Charities International Sustainability Unit (ISU) Marine Programme Launch.
Durban, December 3, 2011 "Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries". United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 17th Conference of the Parties (COP 17)-
New York, June 20-24, 2011: Panellist to the twelfth meeting of the United Nations Open-ended Informal Consultative Process on Oceans and the Law of the Sea, United Nations.
New York, June 8, 2011, Panellist to discussion entitled "Our oceans; greening our future" on World Oceans Day at the United Nations. UN Headquarters. Page 12/42
• Vancouver, February 4, 2011: A meeting of DFO senior management convened and attended by the Deputy Minister of Fisheries, Canada. Gave a talk on strategies to mitigate ecological, social & equity concerns arising from catch share management.
• Brussels, September 29, 2010: Dinner meeting with the chair of the reform committee of Common European Common and Members of the European Parliament, on the results of work by my group on global fisheries economics.
• London, June 6-7, 2010; Group of forty G20 countries' Members of Parliament, talk on the occasion of World Ocean Day, on the potential sustainability impacts of fisheries subsidies, British House of Lords.
• Nairobi, March 29, 2010: Keynote address on the benefits of ecosystem-based fisheries management at the Conference of the Parties Meeting, the Western Indian Ocean Stocktaking Session, UNEP Headquarters.
• London, March 17-18, 2010: Workshop convened and attended by Prince Charles on how to transition fisheries to a more resilient and sustainable states, St James Palace.
• Geneva, November 17-18, 2009: The United Nations, gave a talk as part of a review of the forthcoming UN Green Economy Report, on the potential economic advantage of 'greening' global fisheries.
• Nouakchott, November 16, 2008: One hour meeting with the Minister of Fisheries, Mauritania as a pre view of a talk I gave at a workshop on the impacts of bottom trawling and hydraulic dredging on the potential net discounted fisheries benefits to the country.
• Monaco, March 20-21, 2008: Chaired and provided comments at a workshop sponsored by the Prince Albert II Foundation in Monaco entitled "Prospects for the sustainable management of fishery resources in areas beyond national jurisdiction". The Prince of Monaco attended the closing session of the meeting.
• Ottawa, February 28, 2008: The Standing Committee on Fisheries, Canadian Parliament, on the potential effects of decisions taken by the WTO on Canadian fisheries.
• New York, October 3, 2007: G77 Countries of the United Nations Briefing on the current state of global fisheries: Implications for developing countries.
• Geneva, May, 2007. Country representatives at the WTO, talk on fisheries subsidies, the scope, magnitude and sustainability on its effect on the sustainability of fish resources.
• Washington D.C., June 15, 2006. Congressional (Hill) Briefing on the economics of rebuilding U.S. overfished stocks.
• Washington D.C., March 31, 2005: Office of Management and Budget, Executive Office of the President of the USA, the White House, talk on the economics of marine ecosystem restoration.
(2) Other invited presentations including keynotes (2010 -present)
Campinas, September 1-4, 2014
Beijing, May 12 - 15, 2014: China, fish & food security: Critical issues and challenges. At a Fish and Food Security Symposium organized by Stanford University.
Washington, D.C., January 20, 2014: Marine commercial fisheries versus marine tourism economic benefits. Presentation at the Head Office of the Pew Charitable Trusts on Martin Luther King Day.
Vancouver, December 5-6, 2013: Avoid 'Bad' Economics to Ensure Sustainable Oceans. Talk at the Canadian Healthy Oceans Network Dialogue Meeting.
Barcelona, November 15, 2013: The Market for Pelagic Fish in Nigeria. Presentation to the Pelagic Fish Forum, [By Video Conference].
Sapporo, November 15, 2013: New challenges to ocean governance in the face of climate change. Talk given at the Sustainable Society Symposium. Page 13/42
Sapporo, Japan, October 30, 2013; Internationalization at the University of British Columbia. Presentation at the Hokkaido University - Finnish Universities Joint Symposium.
Toronto, October 28, 2013: Can it possibly make sense to close off the high seas to fishing? Presentation at the Green Peace International GPI Workshop on Marine Reserves Meeting.
Dublin, October 17-21, 2013: Net Benefits to Society from Fisheries. Presentation at the Pew Fellows Annual Meeting.
Seattle, September 30, 2013: Human Dimension Indicators of Social-Ecological System. Presentation at Valuing killer whales, Chinook salmon and the Ecosystem Services Workshop.
Vienna, September, 17-18, 2013: Climate change & ocean acidification impacts on the socio-economics of fisheries. Talk at IAEA Scientific Forum.
Little Rock, Arkansas, August 8-12, 2013: Climate change impacts on the economics of world fisheries. Presentation at the 143rd AFS Annual Conference.
New York, July 5-6, 2013: The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) in the Global Ocean. Presentation at the 2nd Global Ocean Commission Meeting.
London, June 28, 2013: Economics (cost) of IUU Fishing. Presentation at the Pew Illegal Fishing Workshop.
New York, June 19, 2013: Potential Economic and Social Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Arctic Fisheries. Presentation at the UN 2100 Solvency Side Event.
Honolulu, June 13-15, 2013: What Do We Mean by Human Dimension Indicators? Talk at the PICES Workshop on human dimension to ecosystem management.
Montreal, May 27-29, 2013: Potential Economic and Food Security Implications of Warming Oceans. Presentation at the Climate Change Technology Conference organized by Canadian engineers.
Lisbon, Portugal, June 3-5, 2013: Managing the world's ocean: Focus on the high seas. Presentation at the 3rd E.U. - U.S. Conference.
Stanford, May 10-12, 2013: Bad economics and the Management of Global Fisheries in a Changing Environment. Panel speaker at the Stanford Marine Conservation Symposium Panel.
Bergen, May 6-8, 2013: "Potential Economic and Social Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Arctic Fisheries". Arctic Ocean Acidification Conference, May 6-8.
Oxford, April 15-16, 2013: "Economics of High Seas Fisheries". Global Ocean Commission Meeting on High Seas Marine Reserve.
Edinburgh, May 11, 2012: Panellist at the Prince's Charities' International Sustainability Unit Workshop, "The transition to sustainable fisheries; Presenting the case for change," 6th World Fisheries Congress.
New York, April 30, 2012: A Rio+20 second round side event entitled "From harmful subsidies to safe subsidies," United Nations.
Tanzania, July 19, 2012: Current and potential fish asset values worldwide. Session entitled "Measurement and Indicators for Improved Understanding and Management Part 1". International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET).
Tanzania, July 17, 2012: Climate change effects on the Economics and Management of world fisheries. Session entitled "Frontiers in Economic Modeling Part 1. International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade.
Edinburgh, May 10, 2012: Illegal Fishing - Examining Impacts and Solutions. 6th World Fisheries Congress. Page 14/42
Vancouver, Canada, February 16-20, 2012: "Ecological and financial deficits: A double whammy for future generations". Session entitled "Whole-Ocean Economics: Global Fisheries Analysis Potential for Policy Action". AAAS Annual Meeting.
San Diego, California, April 6, 2011: "Whose fish are you catching - yours or the future generations'?" Ecology Seminar, SCRIPPS Institution of Oceanography.
Washington, D.C., February 18, 2011: "Current contribution of global fisheries to human welfare". Session entitled "Climate Change: Altering the Physics, Ecology, and Socioeconomics of Fisheries". AAAS Annual Meeting.
Copenhagen, Denmark, January 31 - Februaiy 1, 2011: "Potential impacts of ocean acidification on marine fisheries". AMAP Workshop.
Nairobi, January 18-19, 2011: "Overview of the Cost Benefit Analysis - Challenges". Governance and CBA of WIO Workshop.
Casablanca, Nov., 27-28, 2010; "Economic MIS-incentives and the MIS-management of Bluefin Tuna in the Mediterranean Sea". Mena Region Environmental Economics Workshop.
Sapporo, November 9, 2010: "Overview of sustainability science (with emphasis on fish and fisheries)". Sustainable Science Conference.
Anaheim, October 1, 2010: "Sustainability, subsidies, & seafood security". SACNAS Meeting.
Bangkok, October 17-22, 2010: "Fisheries subsidies & potential fish catch loss in SIDS Exclusive Economic Zones". World Small-Scale Fisheries Conference.
Barcelona, September 25-29, 2010; "Incentives, conservation and economic benefits from fisheries". Pew Fellows Meeting.
Barcelona, September 25-29, 20io."Bioeconomics as a tool for spatial management". Pew Fellows' Meeting.
Washington, D.C., September 13, 2010: "Economic consequences of global overfishing". National Geographic Ocean Restoration launching.
Taipei, August 3-5, 2010: "Western Central Pacific tuna sequential games". IFF5 Conference.
Montpellier, July 13-16, 2010: "Global Ocean Economics Project: past, present and future?" International Institute for Fisheries Economics and Trade Biennial Meeting.
San Francisco, February 2-4, 2010: "Fisheries Management in Namibia with emphasis on Fishing Rights". Coastal Pelagic Species Fishery Catch Shares Workshop.
(d) Conference Participation (Organizer, Convener, etc.)
Co-convener: Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 workshop at the University of British Columbia, May 10-14, 2014.
Convener: OceanCanada Partnership proposal workshop at the University of British Columbia, August 28-30, 2013
Co-convener: ClimECOs Summer Field School hosted by IMBER. Middle East University, Ankara, Turkey, 23-28 July 2012.
Chair of a session at the IIFET 2012 Conference entitled "Climate Change Impacts on the Economics of World Fisheries," 17 July 2012.
Organizer and Moderator: Conference in Honour of Dr. Colin Clark - Developments and Challenges in Fisheries Economics, May 15-16, 2012. Page 15/42
• Convener of a session at the AAAS Annual Meeting entitled "Whole-Ocean Economics: Global Fisheries Analysis Reveals Potential for Policy Action," Vancouver, 20 February 2012. Presented talk entitled "Ecological and Financial Deficits: a Double Whammy for Future Generations."
• Moderator of a session at the AAAS Annual Meeting entitled "Sustaining People and Oceans: Governance in Marine Social-Ecological Systems," Vancouver, 19 February 2012.
• Scientific Committee member: International Symposium on the Ocean, Green Shipping and Sustainable Energy, Institut Oceanographique de Paris, France, 28-29 April 2011.
• Organizer of a session at the AAAS Annual Meeting entitled "Climate Change; Altering the Physics, Ecology, and Socioeconomics of Fisheries," Washington Convention Center, 18 February 2011.
• Co-convener: symposium at the USSEE conference entitled "Pathways and Policies Toward Sustainable Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems", American University, Washington, D.C., 31 May - 3 June 2009.
• Organizer of a session at the 2009 North American Association of Fisheries Economists Forum entitled "Global Ocean economics Project", May 17-20, 2009.
• Co-convener: Session 4: Ecosystem services and values: ecological, economic, social and cultural, Rome, July 8-11, 2008.
• Co-organizer of the Session: Learning from cod to save tuna; 2008 AAAS Meeting, Boston, Feb. 15 19-
• Organizer of the 2005 North American Association of Fisheries Economists (NAAFE) 3rd Bienniel Forum, Vancouver, Canada.
• Co-organizer of fisheries economics conference in honour of professor Gordon Munro, UBC Campus, Vancouver, Canada, August, 2004.
• Session Leader, Economic Valuation Session at the forthcoming World Fisheries Congress to take place in Vancouver in May 2004 (http://www.worldfisheries2004.org/hon1e.htTn'>.
• Organizer of the Economics of Marine Protected Areas Conference, University of British Columbia, July 6-7, 2000, Vancouver, Canada.
• Convener of the "Markets, Global Fisheries and Local Development" Workshop, Chr. Michelsen Institute, 22-23 March 1999, Bergen, Norway.
(e) Other works
Media (I list these because I believe that it important for academics to communicate their work to policy makers and the public in general).
Please list recent media coverage
2015
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/world-closes-in-on-consensus-to-regulate-fishing-on-the- high-seas/
http://www.sciencedailv.com/releases/20ic;/o2/i502i20Q2502.htm
http: / /www,vancouversun.com/news /simon-fraser- universitv/Canada+would+benefit+high+seas+fishing+closed/io8oq4^2/story.html
http: / /canadaiournal.net/science/scientists-propose-high-seas-fishing-moratorium-22Qi6-20ie:/
http://www.thecordovatimes.com/article/ie;o8spreading-the-wealth Page 16/42
iigh-seas-fishing.html
http://www.fis.com/fis/worldnews/worIdnews.asp?monthvear=&dav=i^&id=74g;88&l=e&special=o&n db=o
httP://summitcountv\roice.com/20ic;/o2/i7/is-it-time-to-rethink-governance-of-high-seas-fisheries/
http://en.mercopress.com/20if;/o2/i6/researchers-propose-high-seas-fishing-ban-and-concentrate- on-coastal-catches
http://marketbusinessnews.com/banning-fishing-high-seas-benefit-canada-plus-several-nations/4822^
http://full-timewhistle.com/science-27/scientists-propose-high-seas-fishing-moratorium-7178.html
http: / /www.eurekalert.org/pub releases/20i^-02/uobc-hsfo2iii.s.php
fishing.html?utm source=menu&utm medium =link&rutm campaign=item-menu
http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Studv recommends closing the high seas to fishing OQQ.html
http: / /cfhrfm.ca/study-says-high-seas-fishing-stop /
http://www.canadiangeographic.ca/blog/posting.asp?ID=i448
http: / /metronews.ca/news /vancouver/1287078 /b-c-researchers-propose-high-seas-fishing- moratorium/
2014
September 3: Why Are We Paying To Destroy Our High Seas? Virgin Unite.
July 3: World's Oceans Face "Irreparable Damage". Real News Network, USA.
June 24: Global Ocean Commission Calls for Sweeping International Reforms. National Geographic Society.
June 10: How Fish Cool Off Global Warming. Scientific American.
June 10: High seas should be closed to all fishing, study suggests. FIS.
June 10: Deep Sea Fishing Threatens to Wipe Out a $150 Billion Carbon Sink. VICE Motherboard.
June 8: Stop fishing the high seas, say scientists, for climate and ecology. The Ecologist.
June 8: End high seas fishing for climate's sake. Climate News Network.
June 5: Oceans worth up to $222 billion annually in CO2 capture. Phvs.org.
March 23, 2014. Northern Gateway could be B.C.'s Exxon Valdez, experts warn. Metro News.
2013
December 3: The commercial seal hunt is showing signs that the end is near. Vancouver Sun.
June 3; Promotion of shark eco-tourism could bite into fin trade. Xinhua News.
June 3: Sharks worth more in seas than in soups, study finds. Christian Science Monitor.
June 2: Shark Tourism Worth More Than Killing Them For Food. New Studv Shows. Huffington Post Canada.
June 1: Sharks worth more in ocean than in soup. B.C. studv finds. CBC News.
May 23: What Norway did with its oil and we didn't. The Globe and Mail.
May 8: Ocean acidification affecting Arctic at fast pace. CBC News. Page 17/42
May 7: Arctic Ocean acidifying from greenhouse gasses. study suggests. CTV News.
January 4: Unsustainable fishing threatens Africa's economy. Ghana Business News.
2012
December 13: Oil spill off B.C. coast could cost $q.6b and wipe out pipeline benefits: UBC. Business Vancouver.
December 12: West Coast oil tanker spill clean-up could cost $q.6B. CBC.
December 12: Cost of B.C. oil spill could outweigh Northern Gateway gains: WWF Study. Toronto Star.
December 12: Study takes aim at Northern Gateway pipe. UPI.com.
December 12: Tanker spill could wipe out Northern Gateway rewards: UBC study. Macleans.ca.
December 12: Enbridge Pipeline Faces Scallou-Farmers Fight: Corporate Canada. Washington Post.
December 12: Enbridge's Northern Gateway pipeline faces fight from scallop farmers. National Post.
December 12: Enbridge, opponents spar over pipeline's risks. Globe and Mail.
November 26: Could rebuilding global fisheries save hundreds of billions of dollars? Mongabay.
November 26: Canadian Ocean economies at risk from GHG emissions. The Hill Times.
November 8: Billions in Subsidies Prop up Unsustainable Overfishing. Inter Press Service.
October 29: Africa said to be losing one million tons of fish every year. Spy Ghana.
October 29: Africa said to be losing one million tons of fish every year. Ghana Business News.
October 25: Africa Loses One Million Tonnes of Fish Yearly Due to Illegal Fishing. All Africa.
October 25: Africa Loses One Million Tonnes of Fish Yearly Due to Illegal Fishing. African Development Bank Group.
August 15: Ocean Health Index provides first global assessment combining natural and human dimensions of sustainability. ScienceDaily.
August 2: The case for a leaner, meaner global fishing industry-. Arts Technica.
July 16: $292 billion: the cost of fixing global fisheries. Vancouver Sun.
July 13: How to make global fisheries worth five times more: study. Phys.org.
June 19: "Blue Jobs" Kev to Future Fisheries. National Geographic.
April 16: Waking up countries to the state of the planet. GMA News.
April 3: How coral bleaching could lead to famine. Scientific American.
April 1: Human harm to oceans comes with staggering price tag. Calgaiy Herald.
March 21: Fish habitat - why rock the boat? Globe and Mail.
March 12: Our country is "the unhealthiest"? Singapore News - Union Morning Post.
March 7: France, ta mamelle ecologique fout le camp! Le Point.
February 22: Singapore: The World's "Unhealthiest" Country? Wall Street Journal.
February 21: Research identifies six fishing 'danger zones'... where conservation is outweighed by greed and short-term profit. Daily Mail.
February 20: Vancouver scientists unveil global rankings index measuring economy and ecology. Global News BC.
February 6: In Mackerel's Plunder. Hints of Epic Fish Collapse. New York Times. Page 18/42
January 31: Declining fisheries will affect us all soon enough. Vancouver Sun.
January 29: Prince of Wales launches fight to save overexuloited oceans from overfishing. The Telegraph.
2011
November 21: Climate change hits fisheries economy. United Press International.
November 21: Warming oceans signal fishery changes, study says. CBC News.
September 21: The Sahara beneath the waves. Globe and Mail.
September 7: Scientists call for end to deep-sea fishing. The Washington Post.
August 4: Our tuna have many friends. Islands Business.
June 22: Plenty of fishes in the sea? Think again. Economy Watch.
May 1: Global fish supplies 'will disappear in four decades.' The National.
February 18: The End of the Line: How a film changed the way we eat fish. The Ecologist.
January 19: Response to "Food security implications of global marine catch losses due to overfishing. J. Emmett Duffy on Faculty of 1000.
January 10: Rashid Sumaila's response to "The trophic fingerprint of marine fisheries." Nature.
2010
October 13: Perikanan Bisa Beri Makan 20 Juta Orane Lagi Jika Dikelola Lebth Bark. Analisa Daily.
September 26: HiM fx tti ^ "TMM • People.com, China.
September 22: Un trabajo del profesor Villasante gana un nremio sobre pesca en Japon. La Voz de Galicia S A.
September 18: 7Kj£jtaiS(E)ttgiPl±T% 2000^A^- September 17: Dollars. People and Fish: Billions Riding on Stopping Overfishing. Change.org. September 16: World Is Paving A High Price in Money and Health Because of Overfishing. aboutmyplanet.com. September 16: Fisheries and support sectors generate USD o,\rt billinn worldwide. MercoPress. September 16: ^^amfi:fl2.40ofSI67C ¦ Sina Hong Kong. September 16: The Cost of Overfishing? $^6 Billion a Year and Counting. TakePart.com. September 15: Fishing "could feed 20 million more". Agence France-Presse. September 15: Efficient Fisheries Can Feed Poor: study. Montreal Gazette. September 15: Locally-Run Protected Areas Could Reverse Fisheries' Death Spiral. IPSnews. September 15: Overfishing Hurts Economy. Public Health, and Ocean Ecosystems. Change.org. September 15: Fisheries generate USD 240 billion worldwide. FIS Canada. September 14: Global Fisheries Research Finds Promise and Peril: While Industry Contributes S240B Annually. Overfishine Takes Toll on People and Revenue. ScienceDaily.com. September 14: World's fisheries worth US$240 billion when indirect industries included. Winnipeg Free Press. September 14: World Pays High Price for Overfishing Study Says. Reuters, Allan Dowd. September 14: Catch Losses from Overfishing Could Feed Millions. Vancouver Sun blogs, Randy Shore. September 14: Global fisheries research finds promise and peril. ScienceDaily.com. Page 19/42 September 9: Pacific sockeve salmon return in record numbers. AFP Newswire, Canada. Terra Daily, On line. July 1: Whale watching tourism a solution for whales and fishers. Powerboat World. June 28: Whale watching worth $2 billion annually. The Province, Canada. June 26: Watching whales pays off. The Boston Globe, USA. June 26: Whales smarter than previously thought. The Sydney Morning Herald, Australia. June 25: Whales worth more alive than dead. Aftenposten, Norway. June 21: No one eats whales. Why does anyone kill them? The Big Money. May 31: Can we really put a price tag on nature? The Guardian. May 25: Ecotrust Launches National Panel Series on the Future of Coastal Fisheries. Ecotrust press release. May 22: Joumee de la biodiversite. Radio Canada Online. May 19: Oceans' fish could vanish in iust 40 years time: UN. Times of Taipei, China. May 18: Pegtii din oceane ar putea disnarea pana in 2050. Romania Libera (Online). May 18: Temen expertos que los peces desaparezcan de los oceanos. La Jornada, Mexico. May 18: Plus aucun poisson dans les oceans d'ici 40 ans? Le Temps, Switzerland. May 18: UN savs 8 bin dollar-investment in greening fisheries could raise patches. People's Daily, China. May 18: World's oceans could be completely depleted of fish in 40 years: UN report. NY Daily News, USA. May 17: Okvanuslarda bahk kalmayacak. Objektif Haber, Turkey. May 1: Pacific fisheries seek closer links to consumers. Reuters, UK. March 9: The End of the Line screening in Malta. Charles Clover's Blog. March 8: Is Malta's 'pot of gold' about to run out? Times of Malta, Malta. 2009 November 30: Canada looks at soy as source of Omega-is. CBA.ca. November 17: Domestic farm animals are devouring the world's fish stocks: B.C. study. Vancouver Sun. November 2: Fishing Subsidies. The Economist. October 8: One colossal waste. MacLean's. September 30: $100 Bn a year for climate safety. BBC. March 16: Quoted by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC): "If this high demand for fish continues, given the limited supplies, we are pushing the envelope and that can lead to problems in the near future for us and also for our children and grandchildren." CBC coverage of the paper co-authored Jenkins, Sievenpiper, Pauly, Sumaila, Kendall, and Mowat is just one of eighty-three news agencies to report on the story. • March 13: Woods Institute names iq Leopold Leadership Fellows. Stanford Report. • March 9: Fish fare best at economic extremes. Discoveiy News. • February 9: Africa's fisheries least able to adapt to climate change. ClimateWire. 2008 • December 29: New ideas for the New Year. 2000. The Tyee. Page 20/42 December 12: Commission agrees to cut tuna catches in Pacific. Associated Press. December 10: 10 Solutions to Save the Ocean. Conservation Magazine. November 28: Lasst die Alten unten. Suddeutsche Zeitung, Germany. August 14: Waves of Disaster. The Georgia Straight. July 16: Full Price Fuel. 24 Hours News Services. July 15: Fuel subsidies better spent re-training fishers. UBC Media Brief. March 9: Oceans at Risk. New York Times Editorialv March 3: WTO weighs if EI for fishermen is an unfair subsidy. Globe and Mail. February 20: Tuna could see cod-like collapse. Regina Leader Post.. February 20: World's tuna stocks under seige. say scientists. The National Post._ February 20: Conservation measures needed to save tuna: experts. The Vancouver Sun. February 20: Learning from cod collapse to save tuna. Innovations report, Germany. February 18: UBC scientist invokes future generations to save tuna populations from collapse. UBC.ca. February 5: 5 Ocean Research Breakthroughs on the Horizon. The Daily Green. February 5: 2008 Pew Fellowship in Marine Conservation awarded to Dr. Ussif Rnshid Snmaila. University of Miami Rosentiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science. February 5: UBC professor wins award to study overfishing. Vancouver Sun. January 28: A fifth of world's fish landings 'are illegnl'. Telegraph UK. January 21: Until All the Fish Are Gone. New York Times. 007 December 13: Laving Waste to the Deep Sea. Time magazine. December: Multinlicacao dos peixes tin Portugese), veja.com. November 24: Coastal project team negotiates its terms of research. The Gazette, Memorial University. November 1: Fishing For Trouble Governments subsidize plundering of oceans. UBC Reports. October 19: Aquaculture's growth rate actually is declining. Intrafish.com. September 19: Fish Farming's Growing Dangers. Time Magazine. July 18: Global Fishing Trade Depletes African Waters. Wall Street Journal Online. July 2: Fishing for a Secure Future. Centrepoint: Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars. March 22: US proposes ban on fishing subsidies in global trade talks. Bloomberg.com. March 13: Subsidies threaten high seas fisheries. The Ubyssey. March 9: Hong Kong Environmental group chooses 4 locations for fishing ban (in Chinese). Ming Pao Daily News. March 9: Hong Kong Hong Kong Fisheries recovery could produce HK$ 10 billion in benefits (in Chinese). Metro. March 9: Critical time for saving Hong Kong's fisheries (in Chinese). Hong Kong Commercial Daily. March 9: Half of Hong Kong fishers may be willing to switch livelihoods if they receive appropriate compensation (in Chinese). Ta Kung Pao, Hong Kong. March 9: Hong Kong Fisheries has negative effect for divers (in Chinese). The Sun. Page 21/42 March 9: Hong Kong Fishing curb mav net HKS2.6b: study. South China Morning Post. March 8: Compensation to fishine industry is key to unlocking massive economic benefits to Hong Kong concludes WWF-UBC report. WWF Hong Kong. March 8: Conservationists push Hong Kong fishing ban. Agence France Presse. March 8: WWF urges Hong Kong to reel in fishing industry. Reuters. March 5: Ocean Fisheries Maxed Out. International Press Service. February 20: Ban subsidies to save our oceans. Independent Online, South Africa. February 20: Fishing subsidies 'destroy oceans' say scientists. The Times, UK. February 20: Call to halt fleet subsidies to save deep sea fish. The Guardian. February 20: Traeedv of the Ocean Commons. National Review Online, USA. February 19: Call for end to subsidies on deep-water trawling. Financial Times, UK. February 19: Our Opinion; Deep-sea fish are on the line. Santa Barbara Times. February 19: Subsidies to high seas bottom trawling fleets - coverage from the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Annual Meeting. February 19: Fishing like an economist. Science Magazine News Blog. February 19: Call to halt deep sea 'plunder'. BBC News. February 19: Scientists call for fuel subsidies ban to protect fish. Telegraph.co.uk. February 19: The last wild hunt-Deep sea fisheries scrape bottom of the sea. ScienceDaily. February 18: Government subsidies drive deep-sea fish depletion. Mongabay.com. February 17: Deep-sea trawling neither ereen no profitable. New Scientist. January 23: MSG goes fishing for public comment on definition of 'sustainable fishing': "Improving transparency". SeaFoodIntelligence.com. January 23: International marine certification programme invites comment on the definition of sustainable fishing. FISHupdate.com. 2006 • December 13: Senate approves Bill to revamp fisheries. Associated Press. • November 20: State-subsidized destruction at sea. The Gazette newspaper. • November 17: Fuel subsidies keep trawlers 'strip-mining' the sea. The Vancouver Sun. • May l: Broadcast of CBC mini-documentary "On the Island". • April 2: Without drastic measures. Gulf of Maine cod fishery will be lost forever, by Priscilla Brooks and Rashid Sumaila. Maine Sunday Telegram Maine Voices. 2005 • May 10-16: Study throws cold water on B.C. sablefish aouaculture. Business in Vancouver. • May 7: Report casts doubt on B.C cod farming. Anchorage Daily News. • May 5: Economic report looks at BC sablefish farming: Claims its 'unlikely to boost economy' in province. Seafood Intelligence. • May 5: Study savs farmed sablefish not economically, ecologically viable in B. C. Intrafish. Page 22/42 Radio 2012 December 12: Northern Gateway and marine safety live from Prince Rupert. CBC, BC Almanac. June 20: On the Rio+20 conference and Canada's place in the world environmental movement. CBC Radio - The Early Edition. April 15: Putting a price tag on ocean damage. Radio Canada International - Marc Montgomery. April 5: Impacts of climate change on the value from our oceans. CHQR - Dave Rutherford. March 13: Sustainable fisheries management. CITR ProfTalk. March 27: Economic and ecological effects of overfishing. German Public Radio:. February 20: The Eco2 Index of Nations. CKNW News. 2011 November 21: Impacts of climate change on global fisheries. Radio Canada International. 2010 November 18: Global fisheries in decline. Science Forum discussion of consumer awareness. 2008 Oct. 23: On how overfishing threatens tuna industry. Radio Australia. July 16: on fishery subsidies. CKNW - Brett Mineer. July 15: On the future of global fisheries. CBC Radio - Mark Forsythe. July 1: Lament for lost way of life in Newfoundland iq years after cod moratorium. CBC. April 12: Deep-Sea Trawlers Threaten Marine Life. Voice of America News. April 3; We are fishing our oceans to death. Globe and Mail, Canada. March 19: On Omega-3 story. CKNW Radio. March 18: On Omega-3 story. CBC Radio. 2005 • May 5: Economists give thumbs down to black cod farming in B.C. Laine Welch of the Fish Radio. TV & Video 2012 • Appeared on GlobalTV News, Global Morning News, Global-BC Noon News, CBC News, CTV National News and CTV-BC News to discuss the potential economic impacts of a tanker spill in the North Coast region of BC. 2009 Explaining the importance of the ocean to humanity in video. Appeared in a video with several notable celebrities including Leonardo Dicaprio and Prince Charles. United Nations Environment Programme fUNEPl discusses the wav forward for fishery subsidies Appeared in a video posted by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on video sharing site YouTube is an excellent quick introduction to fisheries subsidies and why it is an important issue. Appeared two times on CBC News program regarding a co-authored paper on Omega 3 and fisheries conservation. Page 23/42 National Geographic Strange Days on Planet Earth series Overfishing Impacts: Interview with Dr. Ussif Rashid Sumaila (video clip). 2008 Appeared in documentary film The End of the Line: Imagine a World Without Fish. Directed by Rupert Murray. Featured by the Knowledge Network in The Leading Edge segment "A Subsidized Collapse". Appeared in Overfishing Impacts: Interview with Dr. Ussif Rashid Sumaila (video clip). National Geographic Strange Days on Planet Earth series. 9. SERVICE TO THE UNIVERSITY (a) Memberships on committees, including offices held and dates MasterCard Foundation Scholars - Undergraduate Selection Committee, 2014 - present Peter Wall institute Project proposal review Committee, 2015. Partnership Grant Review Committee - 2014. Dr. William Cheung Promotion Committee Chair, 2013 - 2014. Fisheries Centre Head's Strategic Planning Committee, 2013 - 2014. Green College Faculty Members, October, 2009 - present. Faculty Associate, Institute of Resource & Environmental Studies, 2002 - present. College for Interdisciplinary Studies Finance Committee member, 2010 - 2012. 2007 UBC College for Interdisciplinary Studies Faculty Merit Award Committee. RMES Admission's Committee, 2004 - 2006. Sea Around Us Project Steering Committee, 2002 - 2003. Fisheries Centre Building Committee, 2002 - 2003. 10. SERVICE TO THE COMMUNITY (a) Memberships on scholarly societies, including offices held and dates • Member, Scientific Advisory Panel for PREFACE (Enhancing Prediction of Tropical Atlantic Climate and its Impacts) (2013 - present). • Scientific Advisor, WWF Canada (2012 - present). • Coordinating Author, Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 (2011 - present). • Treasurer and Board Member, North American Association of Fisheries Economists (NAAFE) (2007 ¦ present). • Contributing Author, Global Environmental Outlook 4, 2011. • Contributing Author, Global Environmental Outlook 4, 2011. • Scientific Advisory Committee Member of the 8th Game Theory Practice Meeting, Riverside, California, July 11-12, 2011. Page 24/42 • Affiliate member of the FISHGOVFOOD Thermatic Network, The European Commission (5th Framework Program), Centre for Maritime Research, Amsterdam. • Working Group Affiliate Member, GLOBEC Focus 4; Social impacts from changes in marine ecosystems, Plymouth, UK. • Lead author, Conditions Working Group of the Millenium Assessment Research Group fhttp: / /www.miUenniumassessment.org). WorldFish Centre, Penang, Malaysia. • Life Membership of the North American Association of Fisheries Economists award 2005. • Member of International Institute for Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET: 1996 - present). • Member of the American Economics Association (AEA: 2002 - 2003; 2008 - present). • Member of the Natural Resource Modeling Association (NRMA: 1999-present). • Member of the Ocean Management Research Network, Canada (2001 - present). • Norwegian Development Researchers Association (NUF: 1993-1999, Financial Secretary from 1994 to 1995)- • Member of the Canadian Economics Association (CEA: 1995 - 1996). (b) Memberships ofscholarly committees, including offices held and dates • Executive Committee Member, International institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, 2013 - present. • Chair of the selection committee for Best Student Paper Award of the 2009 North American Association of Fisheries Economists Forum. • Member Scientific Committee of the 2008 International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET), July 2008, Vietnam. • Member MMAS Advisory Committee: NOAA/Conservation International Economic Incentives Research Programme, October 2007 - present. • Member Scientific Committee of the 2007 North American Association of Fisheries Economists (NAAFE), March 2007, Merida, Mexico. • Member Scientific and Organizing Committee for the 6th Meeting On Game Theory and Practice Dedicated To Development, Natural Resources And The Environment, Zaragoza, Spain, June/July 2006. • Member of the Scientific Committee for the year 2000 International Institute for Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET) Conference, Corvallis, Oregon, USA. • Leader of the Scientific Committee for Oceanic Research (SCOR) team on closed areas (1997 - 1999): Team reviewed and extended the current state-of-the-art literature on the use of marine protected areas to mitigate the ecosystem effects of fishing. The work of the group was presented at a conference in Montpellier, France, March, 1999. (c) Editorships (listjournal and dates) • Associate Editor, Environmental and Resource Economics (2014 - present). • Editorial Board of Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 2014 - present). • International Editorial Board Member, Maritime Studies (MAST) (2012 - present). • International Editorial Board Member, Oryx (2011 - present). • Editorial Board Member, Economic Research International Journal (2010 - present). Page 25/42 • Editorial Board Member, Fish and Fisheries (2007 - present). • Editorial Board Member: African Journal of Marine Science (July 2003 - present). • Guest editorship of Journal of Bioeconomics (2009-2011). • Guest editorship of Fish and Fisheries (2009-2011). • Associate Editor, Environment and Development Journal (2006 - 2008). • Guest editorship of Land Economics (2005-2006). • Guest editorship of Marine Resource Economics (2005-2006). • Guest editorship: Natural Resource Modeling (2002). • Guest editorship: Coastal Management (2002). • Editorial Board Member; Perspectives in Sustainable Tropical Agricultural Research (PiSTAR) (April 2001 - 2007). (d) Reviewer (journal, agency, etc. including dates) Science (2008, 2014). Nature Climate Change (2014) Marine Policy (2014). Marine Resource Economics (1997-2004, 2009, 2014). Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (2007, 2012). Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (2011). Ecological Letters (2011). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science (2002, 2005, 2011). Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2008, 2010). Environment and Development Economics (2004, 2005, 2010). Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics (2010). ICES Journal of Marine Science (2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010). Environmental Modeling Assessment (2010). Strategic Behavior and the Environment (2009). International Journal Fisheries and Aquaculture (2009). Fish and Fisheries (2006, 2007, 2008, 2009). Progress in Oceanography (2008, 2009). North American Journal of Fisheries Management (2002, 2008). Environmental Modeling and Assessment (2008). Environmental Conservation (2008). Journal of Resource and Energy Economics (2007). American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2007). Resource and Energy Economics (2007). Page 26/42 Land Economics (2003, 2005, 2006, 2007). Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (2007). Environmental Management (2007). Fisheries Research (2005, 2006, 2007). Aquatic Living Resources (2007). Marine Ecological Progress Series (2006, 2007). Ecological Economics (2003, 2005, 2006, 2007). Scientia Marina (2006, 2007). Proceedings of the Royal Society B (2006). Environment and Development (2004, 2005). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science (2002, 2005). Natural Resource Modeling (2002 - 2005). Maritime Studies (2005). Environmental & Resource Economics (1999-2001, 2004). Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries (2004). Resource & Energy Economics (2003). Natural Resources Forum (2003). Coastal Management (2003). Ecological applications (2002, 2003). Contemporary Economic Policy (2002). Journal of Bioeconomics (2002). Natural Science (1998). Chapman and Hall Fisheries Book Series (1996). International Research Chair Initiative: Reviewer of project proposal (2008). Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (2006, 2007). Review of New Hampshire Sea Grant Project Proposal: Social and Economic Impact Assessment on New Hampshire Fishing Communities of Catch Share Management in the Northeast Multispecies Fishery (2011). Grant Proposal Review: International Research Fellowship Program (IRFP) National Science Foundation (2010). Grant Proposal Review; CAMEO (Comparative Analysis of Marine Ecosystem Organization) is a new grants initiative implemented jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Science Foundation (2009) Review of Methodology for assessing the sustainability of seafood, Seafood choices Alliance (2007). The NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research (2006). Alaska Sea Grant (2004). Coast Information Team of B.C. (Review of a project report entitled Economic Gain Spatial Analysis Fisheries, Ocean Ranching, and Aquaculture: 2004). Page 27/42 • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA (Review of project proposal: 2004). • The South African National Research Foundation (Review of project proposal: 2002, 2003). • Research Council of Norway (Review of project proposal: 2004). (e) External examiner (indicate universities and dates) • The University of West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago (2010). • Stellenbosch University, South Africa (PhD) (2005). • The Norwegian College of Fisheries Science, University of Tromso, Norway, (Masters) (1997). • Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Bergen, Norway, (Masters) (1994). (f) Consultant (indicate organization and dates) • UNEP Green Economic Report: Fisheries Chapter Coordinating author (ongoing). • The World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA (1994, 2009). • UN Food and Agricultural organization; Rent Drain Project (2008). • United Nations Head Office, New York, USA; UN Secretary General's Report on the sustainability of the Oceans (2005). • The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, France (2004). • The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy (2003-2004, 2008). • California Environmental Associates and the David and Lucille Packard Foundation, Palo Alto, California, USA (2003). • The Norwegian Development Aid Agency, Oslo, Norway (1992-1995). 11. AWARDS AND DISTINCTIONS (a) Awardsfor Scholarship (indicate name ofaward, awarding organizations, date) • 2013 American Fisheries Society Excellence in Public Outreach Award Recipient. • 2013 Peter Wall Institute for Advance Studies International Roundtable Award. • 2012 2nd Johan Hjort Chair in Marine Economics and Management. Appointed by the Nordic Centre of Excellence (NorMER - University of Oslo). • 2010 Top 10 most cited articles in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, from 2005-2010. Awarded by Elsevier Publishers. • 2010 Japan International Fisheries Research Society YAMAMOTO PRIZE AWARD, First Prize to: Sebastian Villasante & Rashid Sumaila for their paper: "Estimating the Economic Benefits of Cooperative and Non-cooperative Management of Illex argentinus Fishery in the Patagonian Marine Ecosystem". Awarded by the International Institute of Fisheries economics and Trade. • 2010 National Geographic Ocean Restoration Advisory Council Member. Awarded by the National Geographic Society. 2009 Leopold Leadership Fellow. 2008 Pew Marine Conservation Fellow. 2007 Peter Wall Senior Early Career Scholar (Associate professor level). Page 28/42 • 2007 Craigdarroch Award for Societal Contribution to project members of Coasts Under Stress project. • 2007 Nominee for the Conference of University Faculty Associations of British Columbia (CUFA/BC's) Distinguished Academics Awards. • 2006 Zayed International Price for the Environment awarded to the authors of the "Millennium Ecosystem Assessment" for Scientific and Technological Achievements, Dubai-United Arab Emirates. • 2005 Lifetime membership in the North American Association of Fisheries Economists. • 2005 Honorary member of the UBC Food Co-op. • 2005 W.F. James Professor of Pure and Applied Sciences Chair for 2004, St. Francis Xavier University. • Visiting professor of Natural Resource Economics and Management, University of Namibia. • 2002, 2003, 2004 UBC Author. • 1994-1997 The Norwegian Research Council PhD Fellowship. • 1991 and 1993 Recipient of the "Meltzers Hogskolefond" award for outstanding students at Norwegian Universities. 1982-1986 Best student in B.Sc. degree program. Page 29/42 THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA Publications Record SURNAME: Sumaila FIRST NAME: Ussif Initials: URS MIDDLE NAME(S): Rashid Date: 19/11/12 I select a wide range of journals for the publication of my work. This allows me to reach mainstream economists (by publishing in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Land Economics, Environment and Resource Economics and Marine Resource Economics, etc.); multidisciplinary scholars (by publishing in Science, Nature, Natural Resource Modeling, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Ecological Economics, ICES Journal of Marine Science, etc.); policy makers and other stakeholders (by publishing in Marine Policy, Natural Resources Forum, the Journal of Environment and Development, etc.). Bibliometrics (based on Google My Citation: March 31, 2015): Total number of citation = 9971; h-Index = 47; iio- index = 153. I encourage my graduate students to publish their work in the primary literature while in graduate school, and I ensure that they are the first authors if they are the main drivers of the research. JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS (students, research assistants and post docs underlined) 1. Cheung, W.W.L. and Sumaila, U.R. (in press). Economic incentives and overfishing: a bioeconomic vulnerability index. Marine Ecology Progress Series doi; io.3354/mepsiii35. 2. Gordon R. Munro and Sumaila, U. R. (in press). On the Contributions of Colin Clark to Fisheries Economics. Environmental and Resource Economics. 3. Teh. L.S.L and Sumaila, U.R. (in press). Global analysis of temporal trends in shared fisheries. Marine Ecological Progress series. 4. Sumaila, U.R., Hotte. N.. Galli, A., Lam. V.W.Y.. Cisneros-Montemayor, AM. and Wackernagel, M. (in press). Eco2: A simple index of economic-ecological deficits. Marine Ecological Progress series. 5. Miller, D. D., Tooley, K. and Sumaila, U.R (in press).Large-scale oil spills and flag-use within the global tanker fleet. Environmental Conservation. 6. Sumaila, U.R, Vicky W.Y. Lam, Dana D. Miller, Louise Teh, Reg A. Watson, Dirk Zeller, William W.L. Cheung, Isabelle M. Cote, Alex D. Rogers, Galium Roberts, Enric Sala, Daniel Pauly (2015). Winners and losers in a world where the high seas is closed to fishing. Scientific Reports. 7. Ekeland, I., Karp, L. and Sumaila, U.R. (2015). Equilibrium resource management with altruistic overlapping generations. Journal ofEnvironmental Economics and Management, 70, 1-16. 8. Belhabib, D., Sumaila, U.R., Lam, V.W., Zeller, D., Le Billon, P., Abou, K.E., Pauly, D. (2015). Euros vs. Yuan: Comparing European and Chinese Fishing Access in West Africa. PLoS One 10. DOI: io.i37i/journal.pone.oii835i. 9. Diaz, S., Demissew, S., Carabias, J., Joly, C., Lonsdale, M., Ash, N., Sumaila, U.R. ... & Driver, A. (2015). The IPBES Conceptual Framework—connecting nature and people. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 14, 1-16. 10. Osterblom, O Bodin, UR Sumaila, AJ Press (2015). Reducing Illegal Fishing in the Southern Ocean: A Global Effort. Solutions, 4 (5), 72-79. 11. Tittensor, D.P., Walpole, M., Hill, S.L.L., Sumaila U.R., Teh. L.S.L et al. (2014). A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets. Science 346(6206), 241-244. 12. Marques, A., Pereira, H.M., Krug, C., Leadley, P.W., Sumaila, U. R., Teh. L.S.L et al. (2.014). A framework to identify enabling and urgent actions for the 2020 Aichi Targets. Basic and Applied Ecology. Page 30/42 13. Brooks, C. M., Weller, J.B., Gjerde, K., Sumaila, U. R., Ardron, J., Ban, N. C., Freestone, D., Seto, K., Unger, S., Costa, D. P., Fisher, K., Crowder, L., Halpin, P. and Boustany A. (2014). Challenging the 'Right to Fish' in a Fast-Changing Ocean. Stanford Journal ofLaw, Science and Policy, 33, 289-457. 14. Tallis, H., Sumaila, U.R. and many others (20i4).Working together: A call for inclusive conservation. Nature, 515, 27-28. 15. Lam. V. W.. Cheung, W. W., and Sumaila, U. R. (2014). Marine capture fisheries in the Arctic: winners or losers under climate change and ocean acidification? Fish and Fisheries. 16. Sumaila, U. R., and Bawumia, M. (2014). Fisheries, ecosystem justice and piracy: A case study of Somalia. Fisheries Research, 157, 154-163. 17. Miller, D. D., Hotte, N. and Sumaila, U.R (2014). Mandating responsible flagging practices as a strategy for reducing the risk of coastal oil spills. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 81, 24-26. 18. Pelletier, N., Andre, J., Charef, A., Damalas, D., Green, G., Parker, R., Sumaila, U.R., Thomas, G., Tobin, R. and Watson, R. (2014). Energy prices and seafood security. Global Environ. Change, 24, 30-41, http://dx.doi.ore/io.ioi6/j.gIoenvcha.20i2.ii.oi4. 19. Nunoo, F. K. E., Asiedu, B., Amador, K., Belhabib, D., Lam, V., Sumaila, U. R., and Pauly, D. (2014). Marine Fisheries Catches in Ghana: Historic Reconstruction for 1950 to 2010 and Current Economic Impacts. Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture, 22(4), 274-283. 20. Sumaila, U.R., Dvck. A., and Baske, A. (2014). Subsidies to tuna fisheries in the Western Pacific Ocean. Marine Policy 43: 288-294. 21. Leadley, P., Proenga, V., Fernandez-Manjarres, J., Pereira, H. M., Alkemade, R., Biggs, R., Sumaila U.R. ... & Walpole, M. (2014). Interacting regional-scale regime shifts for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Bioscience, biuogs. 22. Pikitch, E.K., Rountos, K.J., Essington, T.E., Santora, C., Pauly, D., Watson, R., Sumaila, U.R., Boersma, P.D., Boyd, I., Conover, D.O., Cuiy, P., Heppell, S.S., Houde, E.D., Mangel, M., Plaganyi, £., Sainsbury, K., Steneck, R.S., Geers, T.M., Gownaris, N., Munch, S.B. (2014). The global contribution of forage fish to marine fisheries and ecosystems. Fish and Fisheries, 15 (1), 43-64. 23. Teh. L.S.L.. Teh, L.C.L., and Sumaila, U.R. (2014). Time preference of small-scale fishers in open access and traditionally managed reef fisheries. Marine Policy 44: 222-231. 24. Miller. P.P.. and Sumaila, U.R. (2014). Flag use behavior and IUU activity within the international fishing fleet: Refining definitions and identifying areas of concern. 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When trash fish is treasure: The case of Ghana in West Africa. Fisheries Research, 96: 167-172. 114. Sumaila, U.R. (2009). Towards a New Governance of High Seas Biodiversity: An introduction. Oceanis, 53, 67-69. 115. Sumaila, U.R., Adinar, A., and Albiac, J. (2008). Game theoretic applications to environmental and natural resource problems. Environment and Development Economics, 14: 1-5. 116. Cheung, W.W.L. and Sumaila, U.R. (2008). Trade-offs between conservation and socio-economic objectives in managing a tropical marine ecosystem. Ecological Economics 66: 193-210, DOI: io.ioi6/i.ecolecon.2007.0Q.ooi. 117. Sumaila, U.R., Teh. L.. Watson, R., Tyedmers, P., and Pauly, D. (2008). Fuel Price Increase, Subsidies, Overcapacity and Resource Sustainability. ICES Journal ofMarine Science, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 65(6); 832 840. 118. Liu. Y. and Sumaila, U.R. (2008). Can farmed salmon production keep growing? Marine Policy, 32, 497-501. HQ. Teh. L. Cheung, W.W.L., Cornish, A., Chu, C., and Sumaila, U.R. (2008). A Survey of Alternative Livelihood Options for Hong Kong's Fishers. International Journal ofSocial Economics, 35(5), 380-395. 120. Bailev. M.. Rotinsulu, C., and Sumaila, U.R. (2008). The Migrant Anchovy Fishery in Kabui Bay, Raja Ampat, Indonesia: Catch, Profitability, and Income Distribution. Marine Policy, 32, 483-488. Page 36/42 121. Liu. Y. and Sumaila, U.R. (2007). Economic analysis of netcage versus sea-bag production Systems for salmon aquaculture in British Columbia. Aquaculture Economics and Management., 11:413-437. 122. Sumaila, U.R., Zeller, D., Watson, R., Alder, J., and Pauly, D. (2007). Potential costs and benefits of marine reserves in the high seas. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 345, 305-310. 123. Sumaila, U.R., and Pauly, D. (2007). All fishing nations must unite to end subsidies. Nature (correspondence), 450: 945. 124. Sumaila, U.R., Khan. A.. Watson, R., Munro, G., Zeller, D., Baron, N., and Pauly, D. (2007). The World Trade Organization and global fisheries sustainability. Fisheries Research, 88, 1-4. 125.TehJ L.. Zeller, D., Cabanban, A.S., and Sumaila, U.R. (2007). Seasonality and Historic Trends in the Reef Fisheries of Pulau Banggi, Sabah, Malaysia. Coral Reefs, 26, 251-263. 126. Teh. L. and Sumaila, U.R. (2007). Malthusian Overfishing in Pulau Banggi? Marine Policy, 31, 451-457- i27.Sumaila, U.R., Marsden. P.. Watson, R., and Pauly, D. (2007). Global ex-vessel fish price database: construction and applications Journal ofBioeconomics, 9, 39-51. 128. Clark, C.M., Munro, G., and Sumaila, U.R. (2007). Buyback, subsidies, the time consistency problem and the ITQ alternative. Land Economics, 83(1), 50-58. 129. Abdallah, P.R. and Sumaila, U.R. (2007). A historical account of Brazilian policy on fisheries subsidies. Marine Policy 31, 444-450. 130. Sumaila, U.R., Munro, G., and Sutinen, J. (2007). Recent developments in fisheries economics; An introduction. Land Economics, 83 (1), 1-5. 131. Sumaila, U.R and Walters, C. (2007). Making future generations count: Comment on "Remembering the future". Ecological Economics 60(3), 487-488. 132. Sumaila, U.R., Volpe, J., and Liu. Y. (2007). Potential economic benefits from sablefish farming in British Columbia. Marine Policy, 31(2), 81-84. 133. Falcao M. P.. Sumaila, U. R., Grundy, 1. M., and Geldenhuys, C. J. (2007). The impact of policy on resource use in mozambique: A case study of Savane. Silva Lusitana Journal, 15(1), 89-102. 134. Perry, R.I. and Sumaila, U.R., (2007). Marine ecosystem variability and human community responses; the example of Ghana, West Africa. Marine Policy, 31(2), 125-134. 135. Sumaila, U.R., Charles, T., and Sylvia, G. (2006). Topical Problems in Fisheries Economics; An Introduction. Marine Resource Economics, 21(4), 337-40. 136. Sumaila, U.R. and Armstrong, C.W. {2006). Distributional and efficiency effects of marine protected areas: A study of the Northeast Atlantic cod fishery. Land Economics, 82 (3), 321-332. 137. Berman, M. and Sumaila, U.R. (2006). Discounting, amenity values and marine ecosystem restoration. Marine Resource Economics, 21 (2), 211-219. 138. Sumaila, U.R, Alder, J., and Keith. H. (2006). Global scope and economics of illegal fishing. Marine Policy, 30(6), 696-703. 139. Sumaila, U.R. (2005). Differences in economic perspectives and the implementation of ecosystem-based management of marine resources. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 50, 279-282. 140. Teh. L.. Cabanban, A., and Sumaila, U.R. (2005). The reef fisheries of Pulau Banggi, Sabah: A preliminary profile and assessment of ecological and socio-economic sustainability. Fisheries Research, 76(3), 359-367. 14.1. Marsden. A.D. and Sumaila, U.R (2005). Tracking flows of fisheries products; the case of Pacific halibut in the Canadian economy. Fisheries Research, 73(1-2), 259-264. 142. Clark, C.W., Munro, G., and Sumaila, U.R. (2005). Subsidies, buybacks, and sustainable fisheries. Journal ofEnvironmental Economics and Management, 50, 47-58. Page 37/42 143. Sumaila, U.R. and Walters, C. (2005). Intergenerational discounting: A new intuitive approach. Ecological Economics, 52, 135-142. 144. Ainsworth, C.H. and Sumaila, U.R. (2005). Intergenerational valuation of fisheries resources can justify long-term conservation: a case study in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 62, 1104-1110. 145. Ussif, A. M. and Sumaila, U.R. (2004). Modeling the dynamics of regulated resource systems; A fishery example. Ecological Economics, 19, 353-365. 146. Sumaila, U.R. {2004). Intergenerational cost benefit analysis and marine ecosystem restoration. Fish and Fisheries, 5, 329-343. 147. Alder, J. and Sumaila, U.R. (2004). Western Africa: a fish basket of Europe past and present. Journal ofEnvironment and Development, 13(2), 156-178. 148. Salas, S., Sumaila, U.R., and Pitcher, T. (2004). Short-term decisions of small scale fishers selecting alternative target species; a choice model. Canadian Journal ofFisheries and Aquatic Science, 61, 374-383 149. Bjorndal, T., Ussif, A., and Sumaila, U.R. (2004). A bioeconomic analysis of the Norwegian spring spawning herring stock. Marine Resource Economics, 19, 353-365. 150. Atta-Mills, J., Alder, J. and Sumaila, U.R. (2004). The decline of a regional fishing nation: The case of Ghana in West Africa. Natural Resources Forum, 28, 13-21. 151.Pauly, D., Christensen, V., Guenette, S., Pitcher, T.J., Sumaila, U.R., Walters, C.J., Watson, R., and Zeller, D. (2002). Towards sustainability in world fisheries. Nature, 418, 689-695. 152. Sumaila, U.R. (2002). Marine protected area performance in a model of the fishery. Natural Resource Modeling, 15(4), 439-451 153. Munro, G. and Sumaila, U.R. (2002). The impact of subsidies upon fisheries management and sustainability: The case of the North Atlantic. Fish and Fisheries, 3, 233-290. 154.Alder, J., Sumaila, U.R., D. Zeller and Pitcher, T.J. (2002). Evaluating MPA management: A new modelling approach. Coastal Management, 30(2), 121-131. 155. Beattie, A., Sumaila, U.R., Christensen, V., and Pauly, D. (2002). Ecological and economic aspects of size and placement of marine protected areas: A spatial modeling approach Natural Resource Modeling 15(4), 413-437- 156.Alder, J. and Sumaila, U.R. (2002). Economics of marine protected areas. Coastal Management, 30(3), 279 - 280. 157. Farrow, S. and Sumaila, U.R. (2002). Conference summary: the new emerging economics of marine protected areas. Fish and Fisheries, 3, 356-359. 158. Sumaila, U.R., and Charles, A. (2002). Economic models of marine protected areas: An introduction. Natural Resource Modeling, 15(3), 261-272. 159. Armstrong, C.W. and Sumaila, U.R. (2001). Optimal allocation of TAC and the implications of implementing an TTQ management system for the North-East Arctic cod. Land Economics, 77, 350-359. 160. Hutton, T., Griffiths, M.H., Sumaila, U.R. and Pitcher, T.J. (2001). Cooperative versus non- cooperative management of shared linefish stocks in South Africa: An assessment of alternative management strategies for Geebek. Fisheries Research, 51, 53-68. 161. Armstrong, C. W and Sumaila, U.R. (2000). Cannibalism and the optimal sharing of the North-East Atlantic cod stock: A bioeconomic model. Journal ofBioeconomics, 2, 99-115. 162. Sumaila, U.R. (2000). Fish as vehicle for economic development in Namibia. Forum for Development Studies, 2, 295-315. 163. Sumaila, U.R and Vasconcello, M. (2000). Simulation of ecological and economic impacts of distant water fleets on Namibian fisheries. Ecological Economics, 32, 457-464. Page 38/42 164. Sumaila, U.R., Guenette, S., Alder, J., and Chuenpagdee, R. (2000). Addressing the ecosystem effects of fishing using marine protected areas. ICES Journal ofMarine Science, 57(3), 752-760. 165. Pitcher, T. J., Watson, R., Haggan, N., Guenette, U.R. Sumaila, S., Kennish, R., Cook, D., and Leung, A (2000). Marine reserves and the restoration of fisheries and marine ecosystems in the South China Sea. Bulletin ofMarine Science, 66(3), 543-566. 166. Sumaila, U.R. (1999). A review of game theoretic models of fishing. Marine Policy, 23(1), 1-10. ihy.Sumaila, U.R. (1998). Protected marine reserves as fisheries management tools: A bioeconomic analysis. Fisheries Research, 37(1-3), 287-296. 168. Sumaila, U.R. (1997)- Cooperative and non-cooperative exploitation of the Arcto-Norwegian cod stock in the Barents Sea. Environmental and Resource Economics, 10, 147-165. 169. Sumaila, U.R. (1997)- Strategic dynamic interaction: The case of Barents Sea fisheries. Marine Resource Economics, 12, 77-94. 170. Mackinson, S., Sumaila, U.R. and Pitcher, T.J. (1997). Bioeconomics and Catchability: Fish and Fishers behavior during stock collapse. Fisheries Research, 31, 11-17. 171. Angelsen A. and Sumaila, U.R. (1996). Hard methods for soft policies: Environmental and social cost benefit analysis. Forumfor Development Studies, 1, 87-114. Also published as book chapter. 172. Sumaila, U.R. (1995). Irreversible capital investment in a two-stage bimatrix fishery game model. Marine Resource Economics, 10(3), 263 - 283. 173. Angelsen A., Fjeldstad, O.K., and Sumaila, U.R. (1994). Growth, development and sustainability. Development Matters, 1(2), 19-22. 2. BOOKS (a) Authored and edited 1. Sumaila, U.R. (2013). Game Theory and Fisheries: Essays on the Tragedy ofFreefor All Fishing. Routledge, London, UK, p. 178. 2. Noone, K.J., Sumaila, U.R., and Diaz, R.J. (eds.) (2013). Managing Ocean Environments in a Changing Climate: Sustainability and Economic Perspectives. Elsevier, London, UK, p. 359. 3. Bjorndal, T., Gordon, D.V., Amason, R., and Sumaila, U.R. (eds.) (2006). Advances in Fisheries Economics: Papers in Honour of Professor Gordon Munro, Blackwell, Oxford, p. 308. 4. Sumaila, U.R., Boyer, D., Skog, M., and Steinshamm, S.I. (eds.) (2004). Namibia'sfisheries: Ecological, economic and social aspects. Eburon, Netherlands, p. 363. 5. Kowero, G., Campbell, B.M., and Sumaila, U.R. (eds.) (2003). Policies and governance structures in woodlands ofSouthern Africa. CIFOR Press, Indonesia, p. 211. (b) Special Journal Issues 6. Sumaila, U.R., Amason, R., and Lange, G.-M. (eds.) (2010). Global Fisheries Economics, Journal of Bioeconomics, 12, 179-268. 7. Chuenpagdee, R. and Sumaila, U.R. (eds) (2010). Fisheries Governance. Fish and Fisheries, 11, 233 314 8. Sumaila, U.R., Adinar, A., and Albiac, J. (eds.) (2009). Game theoretic applications to environmental and natural resource problems. Environment and Development Economics, 14, 1-137. 9. Sumaila, U.R., Charles, T., and Sylvia, G. (eds.) (2007). Topical Problems in Fisheries Economics: An Introduction. Marine Resource Economics. Page 39/42 10. Sumaila, U.R., Munro, G., and Sutinen, J. (eds.) (2007). Recent Developments in Fisheries Economics. Special Issue of Land Economics, 83, 1-107. 11. Sumaila, U.R. and Charles, A. (eds.) (2002a). Economics of protected marine areas. Special Issue of Natural Resource Modeling, 15 (3 ), 261-386. 12. Sumaila, U.R. and Charles, A. (eds.) (2002b). Economics of protected marine areas. Special Issue of Natural Resource Modeling, 15 (4), 387-505. 13. Alder, J. and Sumaila, U. R. (eds.) (2002). Social and economic aspects of protected marine areas implementation. Special Issue of Coastal Management, 30(2), 121-191. (c) Book chapters 14. Sumaila, U.R., W.W.L. Cheung, V.W.Y. Lam (2014). Climate change effects on the economics and management of marine fisheries. In Handbook on the Economics of Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity, 61. 15. Villasante, S., Sumaila, U. R., and Antelo, M. (2014). Why cooperation is better: The gains to cooperative management of the Argentine shortfin squid fishery in South America, In Ostrom, E., Dasgupta, P., Maler, K.G., Barrett, S. (eds.) Environment and Development Economics: Essays in Honour ofSir Partha Dasgupta, Oxford University Press. 16. Cheung, W.W.L., and Sumaila, U.R. (2013). Managing Multiple Human Stressors in the Ocean: A Case Study in the Pacific Ocean, In Noone, K.J., Sumaila, U.R., and Diaz, R.J. (2013). Managing Ocean Environments in a Changing Climate: Sustainability and Economic Perspectives. Elsevier, London, UK P- 277-335 17. Sumaila, U.R., Cheung, W.W.L., and Rogers, A. (2013). The Potential Economic Costs of the Overuse of Marine Fish Stocks, In Noone, K.J., Sumaila, U.R., and Diaz, R.J. (2013). Managing Ocean Environments in a Changing Climate: Sustainability and Economic Perspectives. Elsevier, London, UK, 171-191. 18. Noone, K.J., Sumaila, U.R., and Diaz, R.J. (2013). Valuing the ocean; an introduction, In Noone, K.J., Sumaila, U.R., and Diaz, R.J. (2013). Managing Ocean Environments in a Changing Climate: Sustainability and Economic Perspectives. Elsevier, London, UK, 1-14. 19. Liu, Y., Chuenpagdee, R., and Sumaila, U.R. (2013). Salmon Aquaculture in Canada and Norway- Appraising Govemability, In Bavinck, M., Chuenpagdee, R., Jentoft, S., and Kooiman, J. (eds.) Governability ofFisheries and Aquaculture: theory and applications. MARE Publication Series 7, ISBN: 978-94-007-6106-3. 20. Sumaila, U.R. (2012). Fisheries Management. In Berkshire Encyclopedia of Sustainability, p. 146-151. 21. Sumaila, U.R. and Huang. L. (2012). Improving the Management of Bluefin Tuna in the Mediterranean Sea, Chapter 10. In Abou-Ali, H. (ed.) Economic Incentives and Environmental Regulation: Evidence from the MENA Region. Edward Elgar, United Kingdom, 216-238. 22. Sumaila U.R. (2012). Is an all or nothing WTO fisheries subsidies agreement achievable? In The Future and the WTO: Confronting the Challenges. A Collection ofShort Essays; ICTSD Programme on Global Economic Policy and Institutions, Geneva, Switzerland, www.ictsd.org, p. 169-173. 23. Munro, G. and Sumaila, U.R. (2011). On the Curbing of Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing. In Jacquet P., Pachauri, R. and Tubiana, L. A Planet for life 2011, Oceans: the new frontier. TERI Press, Paris, France, p. 149-162. 24. Sumaila, U. R., Alder, J., Ishimura. G.. Cheung, W. W. L., Dropkin, L., Hopkins, S., Sullivan, S., and Kitchingman, A. (2011). US Marine Ecosystem Habitat Values. In Ommer, R.E., Perry, R.I., Cochrane, K., and Cury, P. (eds.) World Fisheries: A Social-Ecological Analysis. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK, DOI: 10.1002/9781444392241.01116. 25. Sumaila, U.R., Dvck. A.J.. Cisneros-Montemavor. A.M.. and Watson, R. (2011). Global fisheries economic analysis. In Christensen, V. and Maclean, J. (eds.) Ecosystem Approaches to Fisheries: A Global Perspective. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 272-279. Page 40/42 26. Sumaila, U.R., Dvck. A.J.. Kronbak, L.G., Huang. L.. Bawumia, M., Munro, G., Amason, R., Vestergaard, N., Hannesson, R., Chuenpagdee, R., Charles, T., and Cheung, W.W.L. (2011). Fisheries: Investing in Natural Capital. In Towards a Green Economy. United Nations p. 76-109. 27. Sumaila, U.R. and Pauly, D. (2011). The 'March of Folly' in Global Fisheries. In Jackson, J.B.C., Alexander, K.E. and Sala, E. (eds), Shifting Baselines. Island Press, Washington, D.C., p. 21-32 28. Watson, R., Sumaila, U.R., and Zeller, D. (2011). How much fish is being extracted from the oceans and what is it worth? In Christensen, V. and Maclean, J. (eds.) Ecosystem Approaches to Fisheries: A Global Perspective. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 55-72. 29. Bailev. M.. Quaatey, S., Armah, A.K., Jacquet, J., Khan, A., Alder, J., and Sumaila, U.R. (2010). Meeting socioeconomic objectives in Ghana's sardinella fishery. In Nanang, D.M. and Nunifu, T.K. (eds.) Natural resources in Ghana: management, policy and economics. Nova Publishers, p. 293-309. 30. Buchary, E., Pitcher, T., and U.R. Sumaila (2011). Unaccounted values: under-reporting sardine catches as a strategy against poverty in the Bali Strait, Indonesia. In Ommer, R.E., Perry, R.I., Cochrane, K., and Cury, P. (eds.) World Fisheries: A Social-ecological Analysis. Oxford, UK: Wiley-Blackwell, p. 201-223. 31. Sumaila, U.R., Alder, J., Ishimura. G.. Cheung, W.W.L., Dropkin, L., Hopkins. S., Sullivan, S., and Kitchingman, A. (2011). U. S. Marine Ecosystem Habitat Values. In Ommer, R.E., Perry, R.I., Cochrane, K., and Cury, P. (eds.) World Fisheries: A Social-ecological Analysis, p. 281-290. 32. Cox, A. and Sumaila, U.R. (2010). A Review of Fisheries Subsidies; Quantification, Impacts, and Reform. In Grafton, Q., Hilborn, R., Squires, D., Tait, M., and Williams, M. (eds.) Marine Fisheries Conservation and Management. Cambridge University Press, p. 99-112. 33. Perry, R.I., Ommer, R.E., Allison, E., Badjeck, M.-C., Barange, M., Hamilton, L., Jarre, A., Quinones, R., Sumaila, U.R. (2010). Interactions between changes in marine ecosystems and human communities. In Barange, M., Field, J., Harris, R., Hofmann, E., Perry, I., and Werner, C. (eds.) Global Change and Marine Ecosystems. Oxford University Press, Oxford, p. 221-251. 34. Metuzals, K., Baird, R., Pitcher, T., Sumaila, U.R,, and Ganapathiraju, P. (2010). One Fish, Two Fish, IUU, and No Fish: Unreported Fishing Worldwide. In Grafton, Q., Hilborn, R., Squires, D., Tait, M., and Williams, M. (eds.) Marine Fisheries Conservation and Management. Cambridge University Press, p. 165-181. 35. Herrick, S.F., Hannesson, R., Sumaila, U.R., Ahmed, M., and Torres, J.-P. (2009). Global production and economics of small, pelagic fish. In Checkley, A., Oozeki, and Roy (eds.) Climate Change and Small Pelagic Fish. Cambridge University Press, p. 256-274. 36. Sumaila, U.R. and Cheung, W.W.L. (2009). Vulnerability and Sustainability of Marine Fish Stocks Worldwide: With Emphasis on Fish Stocks of the Commonwealth of Nations. In Bourne, R. and Collins, M. (eds.) From hook to plate: The state of marinefisheries - A Commonwealth perspective, p. 195-210. 37. Sumaila, U.R. and Munro, G.R. (2009). Fisheries Economics. In Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, p. 3787-3794 38. Hoagland, P., Sumaila, U.R., and Farrow, S. (2009). Marine Protected Areas. In Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, p. 1654-1659. 39. Pauly, D., Alder, J., Booth, S., Cheung, W.W.L., Christensen, V., Close, C., Sumaila, U.R., Swartz. W.. Tavakolie, A., Watson, R., Wood, L., and Zeller, D. (2008). Fisheries in Large Marine Ecosystems: Descriptions and Diagnoses. In Sherman, K. and Hempel, G. (eds.) The UNEP Large Marine Ecosystem Report: a Perspective on Changing Conditions in LMEs of the World's Regional Seas. UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies No. 182, p. 23-40. 40. Sumaila, U.R. (2008). Current state of global fisheries: The role of economic valuation. In Lasry, J.-M., and Fessler, D. (eds.) Finance and sustainable development: Opposition or partnership. Economica, Paris, p 87-93. 41. Vincent, A.C.J., Marsden. P.. and Sumaila, U.R. (2007). The role of globalization in creating and addressing seahorse conservation problems. In Taylor, W.W., Schetcher, M.G., and Wolfson, L.G. (eds.) Page 41/42 Globalization: Effects on fisheries resources. Cambridge University Press, p. 186-214. 42. Sumaila, U.R. and Stephanus, K. (2006). Declines in Namibia's pilchard catch: the reasons and consequences. In Hannesson, R., Barange, M., and Herrick Jr., S. (eds.) Climate Change and the Economics of the World's Fisheries- Examples of small pelagic stocks. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, pp. 205-214. 43. Pauly, D., Alder, J., Bakun, A., Heileman, S., Kock, K.-H., Mace, P., Perrin, W., Stergiou, K.I., Sumaila, U.R., Vierros, M., Freire, K.M.F., Sadovy, Y., Christensen, V., Kaschner, K., Palomares, M.L.D., Tyedmers, P., Wabnitz, C., Watson, R., and Worm, B. (2005). Marine systems. In Hassan, R., Scholes, R., and Ash, N. (eds.) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Current States and Trends, Vol. 1. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Island Press, Washington, D.C, p. 477-511. 44. Pullin, R. and Sumaila, U.R. (2005). Aquaculture. In Kooiman, J., Bavinck, M., Jentoft, S., and Pullin, R. (eds.) Fishfor Life: Interactive governanceforfisheries, p. 93-108. 45. Kooiman, J., Jentoft, S., Bavinck, M., Chuenpagdee, R., and Sumaila, U.R. (2005). Meta-principle. In Kooiman, J., Bavinck, M., Jentoft, S., and Pullin, R. (eds.) Fish for Life: Interactive governance for fisheries, p. 93-108. 46. Sumaila, U.R, Boyer, D., Skog, M., and Steinshamm, S.I. (2004). Namibia's fisheries: Introduction and overview. In Sumaila, U.R., Boyer, D., Skog, M., and Steinshamm, S.I. (eds) Ecological, Economic and Social Aspects ofNamibia's Fisheries, Eburon, Netherlands, p. 1-9. 47. Armstrong, C.W., Sumaila, U.R., Erastus, A., and Msiska, O. (2004). Benefits and costs of the Nambianization policy. In Sumaila, U.R., Boyer, D., Skog, M., and Steinshamm, S.I. (eds) Namibia's fisheries: Ecological, economic and social aspects, Eburon, Netherlands, p. 203-214. 48. Armstrong, C.W., and Sumaila, U.R. (2004). The Namibian-South African hake fishery - Costs of non- cooperative management. In Sumaila, U.R., Boyer, D., Skog, M., and Steinshamm, S.I. (eds) Namibia's fisheries: Ecological, economic and social aspects. Eburon, Netherlands, p. 231-244. 49. Sumaila, U.R., and Steinshamn, S.I. (2004). A brief overview of current bioeconomic studies of Namibian fisheries. In Sumaila, U.R., Boyer, D., Skog, M., and Steinshamm, S.I. (eds) Namibia's fisheries: Ecological, economic and social aspects, Eburon, Netherlands, p. 165-186. 50. Sumaila, U.R Alder, J., and Keith. H. (2004). The cost of being apprehended for fishing illegally: Empirical evidence and policy implications. In Fish Piracy: Combating illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, p. 201 230. 51. Pitcher, T.J., Heymans, S.J.J., Ainsworth, C., Buchary, E.A., Sumaila, U.R, and Christensen, V. (2004). Opening the lost valley: Implementing a 'Back To Future' restoration policy for marine ecosystems and their fisheries. In Knudsen, E.E., MacDonald, D.D. and Muirhead, J.K. (eds.) Sustainable management of North American fisheries. American Fisheries Society Symposium 43: 165-193. 52. Sumaila, U.R., Angelsen, A., and Kowero, G. (2003). A system dynamics model for management of miombo woodlands. In Kowero G., Campbell, B.M., and Sumaila, U.R. (eds.) Policies and governance structures in woodlands ofSouthern Africa, CIFOR, Bogor, p. 218-238. 53. Kowero, G. and Sumaila, U.R. (2003). Manual for users of Miombosim: A simulation model for the management of miombo woodlands. In Kowero G., Campbell, B.M., and Sumaila, U.R. (eds.) Policies and governance structures in woodlands ofSouthern Africa, CIFOR, Bogor, p. 239-256 54. Sainsbury, K. and Sumaila, U.R. (2003). Incorporating ecosystem objectives into management of sustainable marine fisheries, including "best practice' reference points and use of marine protected areas. In Sinclair, M. and Valdimarson, G. (eds.) Responsible fisheries in the marine ecosystem. CAB International, pp. 343-361. 55. Sumaila, U.R. (2002). Recreational and commercial fishers in the Namibian silver cob fishery. In Pitcher, T.J. and Hollingworth, C.E. (eds.) Recreational fisheries: Ecological, economic and social evaluation, p. 51-62. Blackwell Science, Oxford, UK. Page 42/42 56. Hoagland, P., Sumaila, U.R. and Farrow, S. (2001). Marine protected areas. In Steele, J.H., Thorpe, S.A., and Turekian, K.K. (eds.) Encyclopedia of ocean sciences. London: Academic Press, pp. 1654-1659. 57. Sumaila, U.R. and Bawumia, M. (2000). Ecosystem justice and the marketplace. In Coward, H., Ommer, R., and Pitcher, T. J. (eds.) Fish ethics: Justice in the Canadian fisheries. Institute ofSocial and Economic Research (ISER), Memorial University, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada, , p. 140 - 153. 58. Sumaila, U.R. (1998). Protected marine reserves as hedge against uncertainty: An economist's perspective. In Pitcher, T.J., Pauly, D., and Hart, P. (eds.) Reinventing Fisheries Management. Chapman and Hall, England, p.301-309. 59. Bonfil R., Munro, G., Sumaila, U.R., Valtysson, H., Wright, M., Pitcher, T., Preikshot, D., Haggan, N., and Pauly, D. (1998). Impacts of distant water fleets: an ecological, economic and social assessment. In The footprints of distant water fleet on world fisheries. Endangered Seas Campaign, WWF International, Godalming, Surrey, 122 p. 60. Sumaila, U.R. (1998). Optimal landing strategies for the Arcto-Norwegian cod stock: Trawlers versus Coastal vessels. In S. Jentoft (ed.) Commons in Cold Climate: Coastal Fisheries and Reindeer Pastorialism in North Norway. Parthenon Publishing, England, p.115-120. 61. Angelsen, A and Sumaila, U.R. (1997). Hard methods for soft policies: Environmental and social cost benefit analysis. In F.A. Wilson (ed.) Towards Sustainable Project Development, Edward Edgar, UK, 20 42. 3. CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS. REPORTS. BOOK REVIEWS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS Note: I've published several articles under this category that are not listed here. Rogers, A.D., Sumaila, U.R., Hussain, S.S. & Balcombe, C. The High Seas and Us: Understanding the Value of High-Seas Ecosystems.. Report of the Global Ocean Commission, Sommerville College, Oxford University.(20i4). APPENDIX B TO THE WRITTEN EVIDENCE OF RASHID SUMAILA Report of Sumaila R., Hotte N. and Bjarnason H. Potential economic impacts of a tanker spill on ocean-dependent activities in Vancouver, British Columbia Potential economic impact of a tanker spill on ocean-dependent activities in Vancouver, British Columbia Harmony Bjarnason, Ngaio Hotte and U. Rashid Sumaila FINAL REPORT May 20, 2015 Fisheries Economics Research Unit UBC Fisheries Centre Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 Executive Summary More than a million people live in the vicinity of the Burrard Inlet, 600,000 of whom reside in the City of Vancouver. The sandy beaches, seawall and calm ocean waters skirting Vancouver's shoreline not only contribute to Vancouver's reputation as one of the world's most 'Liveable Cities', but also drive the local economy. Ocean-dependent economic activities in the City are estimated to directly employ four percent of Vancouver's population. When indirect and induced values are also considered, the Burrard Inlet provides employment for approximately eight percent of the City's population. The performance of these five ocean-dependent economic activities (commercial fishing, port activities, inner harbour transportation, tourism, recreation) are closely linked to the condition of the marine environment. The proposed expansion of the existing Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline from Edmonton, Alberta to Burnaby, British Columbia, and associated six-fold increase in tanker ship traffic in Burrard Inlet to more than 300 vessels per year, has raised concerns about the potential economic impacts of a spill on the region. A hydrocarbon spill has the potential to adversely affect ocean-dependent activities in the City of Vancouver, including five key industries: 1) commercial fishing; 2) port activities (shipping and cruises); 3) inner harbour transportation; 4) tourism (on-water recreation, ocean-based and waterfront events, visiting beaches and seawall); and 5) local use of the waterfront. While an attempt has been made to quantify the economic benefits of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project by Kinder Morgan Canada, no attempt has been made to quantify the potential economic costs of a hydrocarbon spill. This report provides an assessment of the potential economic cost of a hydrocarbon spill in the Burrard Inlet on five key ocean-dependent economic activities within the City of Vancouver in order to inform the National Energy Board's (NEB) assessment of the potential costs and benefits of the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP). In this report, economic values are expressed in terms of total (i.e. direct, indirect and induced) economic effects on indicators (i.e. economic output value, employment and gross domestic product, "GDP") for ocean-dependent economic activities. Ocean-dependent activities in Vancouver are estimated to currently contribute a total of $6,430-$6,700 million Canadian Dollars (CAD)1 in output value, 32,520-36,680 PYs of employment and $3,061-$3,261 million in GDP to the Vancouver economy each year. According to Hodgson (2014), the construction and operation phases of the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project are estimated produce total 1 All monetary values are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated. economic effects of $2,700 million in output value, 5,758 PY in employment and $1,800 million in GDP to the Vancouver economy, in present value terms, over a 25-year period. It is worth noting that estimates provided by Hodgson (2014) have not been verified within this study. Rather, this report analyses three potential spill scenarios: no spill (no hydrocarbon spill), a hydrocarbon spill in May (16,000 m3 spill at the First Narrows) and a hydrocarbon spill in October (16,000 m3 spill at the First Narrows). Vancouver's ocean-dependent economic activities are estimated to experience larger losses under a May spill scenario than an October spill scenario because approximately 50 percent of ocean-dependent economic activity occurs between May 15 and September 1 each year. Total economic losses resulting from a May spill are estimated to be 115-175 percent higher than those from an October spill. Differences in impacts between May and October spill scenarios are due to seasonal variations in economic activity in Vancouver's five key ocean-dependent economic activities. Dungeness crabs are harvested year-round; however, the months of May through October tend to be the most productive for commercial fishermen (DFO 2009). The commercial spot prawn season opens on or after May 1 each year and closes by the end of June (DFO 2014). Floatplane transportation is highly seasonal, a May spill would affect 44 percent of annual revenues, whereas an October spill would affect 11 percent of annual revenues2. The majority of on-water recreation and waterfront (beaches and seawall use) in Vancouver occurs between the months of May and September and a spill in May would result in greater tourism losses than a spill in October with impacts being felt during peak tourist season. Waterfront and water-based events occur predominantly in the late spring, summer and early fall with only 13 percent of economic output value occurring prior to May 1 in an average year, therefore a spill in May has the potential to generate a greater economic impact than a spill in October since it precedes the event season. In the event of a May spill, Vancouver's ocean-dependent economy could suffer total losses in the range of $380-$l,230 million in output value, 3,238-12,881 PY of employment and $201-$687 million in GDP. Under this scenario, 45 percent of output value, 138 percent of employment and 40 percent of the contribution to GDP from the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project, as estimated by Hodgson (2014) would be lost to the spill by the five economic activities studied in this report. 2 Based on author's calculation of passenger data provided by Stephanie Isted, Harbour Air, pers. comm., June 24 and 27, 2014. In the event of an October spill, Vancouver's ocean-dependent economy could suffer total losses in the range of $215-$!,020 million in output value, 1,972 11,216 PY of employment and $115-$575 million in GDP. Under this scenario, 38 percent of output value, 120 percent of employment and 34 percent GDP from the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project, as estimated by Hodgson (2014), would be lost to the spill. The projected losses from a hydrocarbon spill are substantial given the study's narrow focus on the impact to the market values of only five key ocean- dependent economic activities in the City of Vancouver. The value of socio economic impacts to local residents whose employment is not linked to the Burrard Inlet has not been assessed in this study, including impacts on human health, real property values, community cohesion, local non-tourism businesses, general well-being of the residents in the City of Vancouver, the 'Greenest City' brand and environmental damages. This study also does not include the costs of a spill response, clean-up and litigation activities. Ocean-dependent economic activities in Vancouver encompass only a portion of the local economy that could experience losses from a hydrocarbon spill in the Burrard Inlet. Still, the potential impacts of an oil spill runs into hundreds of million dollars. hi Table of Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. Background 5 2.1. Marine Industries 5 2.1.1. Commercialfishing 5 2.1.2. Port activities 8 2.1.3. Inner Harbour transportation 10 2.1.4. Ocean-dependent tourism 12 2.1.5. Ocean-dependent recreation 13 2.2. Proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project 21 2.3. A summary of previous case studies: tanker spill impacts 22 2.3.1. Houston Ship Channel spill, 2014 22 2.3.2. Mississippi River spill, 2014 23 2.3.3. Kalamazoo bitumen spill, 2010 23 2.3.4. Deepwater Horizon oil spill, 201 0 24 2.3.5. Sabine-Neches waterway spill, 2010 25 2.3.6. Cosco Busan tanker spill, 2007 25 2.3.7. Exxon Valdez oil spill, 1989 26 2.4. Burrard Inlet tanker spill modelling 27 3. Methods 28 3.1. Calculating the economic contribution of existing ocean-dependent activities 28 3.1.1. Commercialfisheries 29 3.1.2. Port activities 30 3.1.3. Inner Harbour transportation 30 3.1.4. Ocean-dependent tourism 30 3.1.5. Locals-Beaches and seawall 31 3.2. The value of the proposed Trans Mountain pipeline project 32 3.3. Derivation of oil spill impacts 33 3.3.1. Spill modelling 33 3.3.2. Spill scenarios 34 3.3.3. Seasonal impacts ofa hydrocarbon spill 35 3.3.4. Industry growth rates 36 3.3.5. Calculating potential impacts on ocean-dependent economic activities 38 4. Results 40 4.1. Baseline values of ocean based industries 40 4.1.1. Commercialfishing 41 4.1.2. Port activities 42 4.1.3. Inner Harbor transportation 43 4.1.4. Ocean-dependent tourism 43 4.1.5. Locals-Beaches and seawall 45 4.2. Value of the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project 45 4.3. Economic impact of a tanker spill 45 4.3.1. No spill 45 4.3.2. Spill in May 45 4.3.3. Spill in October 48 4.3.4. Spill impacts comparison: May vs. October 50 5. Discussion and conclusion 50 References 54 Appendix I: Analytical methods 69 A.l Commercial fishing 69 A.2 Port activities 70 A.2.1 Shipping 70 A.2.2 Cruises 70 A.3 inner Harbour transportation 71 A.4 Ocean-dependent tourism 72 A.4.1. On-water activities 73 A.4.2. Waterfront events 74 A.5 Beach and seawall usage 76 Appendix II: List of water-based and waterfront events in Vancouver 78 List of Figures Figure 1. Map of the Burrard Inlet (Adapted from Phippen 2001) 1 Figure 2. Map of the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project (Source: NEB 2013) 3 Figure 3: Map of Vancouver beaches and seawall 16 Figure 4: Dispersion of oil after 24 hours from a 16,000 m3 spill at the First Narrows 34 List of Tables Table 1: Vancouver resident participation in ocean-dependent recreation (annual) 14 Table 2: Overnight visitor participation in ocean-dependent recreation (%) 14 Table 3: Ocean-based and waterfront events* in Vancouver 19 Table 4: Ocean-based and waterfront events: participation and motivation rates for locals, day-visitors, and overnight visitors 20 Table 5: Assumed industry growth rates, spill impacts and market recovery times 38 Table 6; Current baseline for ocean-dependent economic activities within the City of Vancouver (2013) 40 Table 7: Present value of economic effects of TMEP within Vancouver 45 Table 8: Present value of losses to ocean-dependent activities in the City of Vancouver over a 2 5 -year period; May spill scenario 47 Table 9: Present value of losses to ocean-dependent activities in the City of Vancouver over a 2 5 -year period; October spill scenario 49 Table 10: Comparison of estimated present value economic impacts of May and October spill scenarios 50 1. Introduction This report provides an assessment of the potential economic cost of a hydrocarbon spill in the Burrard Inlet on five key ocean-dependent economic activities within the City of Vancouver in order to inform the National Energy Board's (NEB) assessment of the potential costs and benefits of the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP). Trans Mountain Pipeline ULC has applied to the National Energy Board for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity pursuant to Section 52 of the NEB Act. The Burrard Inlet is an inlet of the Pacific Ocean that is located between the Cities of Vancouver and North Vancouver, in the Province of British Columbia, Canada (Phippen 2001). Unlike many inlets along Canada's west coast, the Burrard Inlet is relatively shallow, receives considerable freshwater inflows from the Eraser River and, for the most part, is unbounded by steep cliffs (Thomson 1981). The Inlet consists of several reaches that are demarcated by infrastructure developments along its shores; i) the Outer Harbour, which includes the densely populated areas of English Bay and False Creek and stretches from Point Atkinson to the First Narrows Bridge; ii) the Inner Harbour which extends between the First and Second Narrows Bridges and; iii) the Central Harbour which includes the portion between Second Narrows and Roche Point in Deep Cove; iv) the Port Moody Arm terminating at the east end of the inlet; and v) the Indian Arm which stretches north from Deep Cove (Figure 1) (Thomson 1981; Phippen 2001). ® Outer Harbour ® Inner Harbour 1 am ® Folia Crook ® Second Narrow! ""lie ® First Narrows ® Central Harbour WmtVanceumr Moody Figure 1. Map of the Burrard Inlet (Adapted from Phippen 2001) With its sandy beaches and scenic backdrop of the North Shore Mountains and city skyline, the Outer Harbour is actively used by locals and tourists year-round and is one of the most densely populated areas of the Province (Phippen 2001). The Inner Harbour, by comparison, is heavily used by pleasure craft and by commercial vessels accessing Port Metro Vancouver (Phippen 2001). Much of the Inner Harbour has been heavily industrialized using landfill and dredging (Phippen 2001). One major exception is Stanley Park, a 1,000-acre public park that encompasses the spit of land that connects the First Narrows Bridge to the City of Vancouver. The waters and surrounding lands of Burrard Inlet are within the traditional territories of the Tsleil-Waututh ("The People of the Inlet"; TWN website), Musqueam ("People of the River Grass"; Musqueam website) and Squamish ("Mother of the Wind"; Tourism Squamish website) First Nation peoples. Generations of these peoples have inhabited and cared for the area since time immemorial. Modern settlements now surround the Burrard Inlet, including the Cities of Vancouver (pop. 603,500), Burnaby (pop. 223,200), Port Moody (pop. 33,000); the City (pop. 48,000) and District (pop. 84,500) of North Vancouver; the Municipality of West Vancouver (pop. 42,500); the Village of Belcarra (pop. 690); the Tsleil-Waututh Nation (pop. 500); and Electoral Area A (pop. 13,000). Ocean- dependent economic activities including shipping, cruise ship operations, marine transportation, marine tourism and commercial and recreational fishing all contribute to the economies of these communities and to the City of Vancouver's reputation as one of the world's "Most Livable" cities (EIU 2013). Kinder Morgan Canada Inc. (KMC) currently owns and operates the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which transports crude oil and refined hydrocarbon products from Edmonton, Alberta to the Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, British Columbia for shipment via tankers (KMC website). Approximately five Panamax and Aframax class tankers per month currently depart the Westridge Marine Terminal (Lewis 2013), bound for international markets. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP; Figure 2), proposed by Trans Mountain Pipeline ULC (TMP), would nearly triple the capacity of its pipeline from 47,690 cubic metres per day (m3/d) (300,000 barrels per day; bbls/d) to 141,500 m3/d (890,000 bbls/d) (TMP 2013) and increase the number of tankers from five to 34 per month3 (TMP 2013b, p.*A-68). Among other developments, TMEP would require construction of three new berths at the Westridge Marine Terminal, each capable of accommodating Aframax class tanker vessels, and two new 3.6 kilometer (km) buried pipeline segments between the Burnaby Terminal and the Westridge Marine Terminal (TMP 2013). AtbOrta mm Columbia tlMVQ n** 8ZXM (tflundM; • frttfOtaoftstoflCtoaairtM Washington Figure 2. Map of the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project (Source: NEB 2013). Kinder Morgan Canada pipeline operations have been ongoing since 1956 and TMP projects that the TMEP will generate employment through both project activities (e.g. construction and operations) and supply chain effects (TMP 2013). However, the City of Vancouver, among others, has expressed concerns about the potential increased risk of a tanker spill associated with TMEP. In its Application to Participate in the National Energy Board (NEB) review of TMEP, the City of Vancouver noted that it is the most densely populated urban marine 3 In 2013, 48 crude oil tankers called on Port Metro Vancouver or approximately 1.5% of all foreign vessel traffic (PMV FAQ: Tanker Safety 2014). centre in Canada, with many residences and businesses that depend on access to Burrard Inlet, and that its $3,600 million/year tourism industry relies on parks, beaches, the 22 kilometer seawall and waterways (City of Vancouver 2013). This report provides an assessment of the potential economic cost of a hydrocarbon spill in the Burrard Inlet for five key ocean-dependent economic activities in the City of Vancouver. Economic costs only comprise a portion of total costs that would arise from a hydrocarbon spill, and additional costs include social, environmental and economic externalities that would be incurred by local businesses and local government. Assessing these externalities requires estimating impacts to both market and non-market values, including the use of valuation methods. This report assesses potential economic costs associated with a spill and does not include values for externalities associated with a spill (e.g. environmental damage, loss of option values, human health implications). Several previous tanker spills offer case studies from which to base assumptions about the potential economic impacts of a tanker spill in the Burrard Inlet. These include the Exxon ValdezoW spill (EVOS), which released 260,000 bbls of crude oil into Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska in 1989; the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, which discharged 4.9 million bbls into the Gulf of Mexico from April 20-July 15, 2010; and the Cosco Busan spill, which released 1,380 bbls of heavy fuel oil into San Francisco Bay on November 7, 2007. Average values for duration and cost of impacts are drawn from these and other major oil spills for comparison. Economic values are expressed in terms of total (i.e. direct, indirect and induced) economic effects on indicators (i.e. economic output value, employment and gross domestic product, "GDP") for ocean-dependent economic activities. Estimates include effects on local residents and visitors, both within the City of Vancouver and in other jurisdictions as a result of activities within the City of Vancouver. The potential impact of a tanker spill was estimated based on assumed (i) durations of marine and coastal area closures; and (ii) market recovery times, by ocean-dependent activity. Estimates of regional economic benefits resulting from the TMEP were calculated using projected regional employment and project- related expenditures reported by Hodgson (2014) in "The Trans Mountain Expansion Project: Understanding the Economic Benefits for Canada and its Regions," which was prepared on behalf of TMEP. 2. Background 2.1. Marine Industries 2.1.1. Commercial fishing Commercial fisheries within the Burrard Inlet are limited to Dungeness crab {Metacarcinus magistef) and Spot prawn {Panda!us p/atyceros) and this occurs within the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Management Area 28, sub-areas 6-14 (DFO 2014). The commercial Dungeness crab fishery in the Burrard Inlet is composed of a small commercial fleet of approximately three vessels (Mackenzie 2010). Landed prices for Dungeness crab have risen dramatically in recent years due to growing demand from China, particularly in Shanghai (CBC News 2014). Dungeness crab stocks are believed to be fully exploited (DFO 2000). The fishery is currently managed using a size limit, limited commercial licensing, trap limits, soak limits, sex restrictions, soft-shell restrictions and gear restrictions and all commercial fishers must carry a valid category "R" fishing license (DFO 2014). Such measures are intended to protect the breeding stock and maintain the population. Dungeness crabs are fished year-round; however, the months of May through October tend to be the most productive for commercial fishers (DFO 2009). The commercial Spot prawn fishery is managed using seasonal and in-season area closures, gear marking and limits, trap mesh size requirements, size limits, daily fishing time restrictions and a daily catch limit (DFO 2014). The season opens on or after May 1 each year, to allow for sufficient prawn growth resulting in increased catch weight and value, and closes by the end of June (DFO 2014). False Creek Harbour Authority in Vancouver provides long-term moorage for commercial fishing boats and access to the False Creek Fishermen's Wharf, which has been preserved for residents and tourists in Vancouver, The Wharf offers the opportunity to purchase fresh BC fish and seafood straight from commercial fishing boats and is a venue for themed events to support the fishing industry, such as the annual Spot Prawn Festival. Seafood caught in Burrard Inlet may be processed at one of several processing facilitates in the Lower Mainland of BC. Processors located in Vancouver include Aero Trading, Albion Fisheries, Canadian Fishing Company (Canfisco), Goldfish, Ocean Master Foods International, Organic Ocean, SM Products Ltd., Worldwide Seafoods, 7Seas and many others. For the purpose of this study, the value of seafood processing, marketing, transportation, wholesale, retail and services are assumed to be indirectly linked to the value of fish that are commercially caught within Burrard Inlet. Value that is generated in other jurisdictions is traced back to the original source {i.e. Burrard Inlet), where the fish are caught. Hatchery production Since 1971, DFO has operated the Capilano River Hatchery along the north shore of Burrard Inlet (DFO 2014). The Hatchery is credited with re introducing Chinook salmon to the Capilano watershed and supports recreational fishing of coho and steelhead in Burrard Inlet. It also receives more than 200,000 visitors each year (DFO web). In the fall, salmon returning to the Capilano River support a food, social and ceremonial (FSC) fishery for the Squamish First Nation. Burrard Inlet is also home to several salmon habitat enhancement projects and community-run hatcheries. Volunteer-operated projects exist at Mackay Creek, Morten Creek, Reed Point, Richards Creek and Seymour River (DFO 2014). The Vancouver Aquarium and FortisBC also operate private salmonid enhancement projects. Mossom Creek Hatchery, established in 1976 and operated by the Burrard Inlet Marine Enhancement Society (BIMES), is the longest running community hatchery in the DFO Salmonid Enhancement Program (Mossom Creek Hatchery website). BIMES focuses on education and stewardship activities in the Burrard Inlet area through programming for students and community members. The Mossom Creek Hatchery building was destroyed by fire in December 2013; however, fundraising efforts are underway to rebuild the facility. Similarly, Noons Creek Hatchery, established in 1978 and operated by the Port Moody Ecological Society (PMES), is an active learning centre for students, community groups and other visitors (PMES website). The facility also includes a water quality lab that supports a water monitoring program in Noons Creek and other nearby streams and hosts the annual Fingerling Festival. The hatchery raises thousands of young coho and chum salmon each year. The value of local habitat enhancement projects and community hatcheries are not included in the analysis since the majority of these projects operate outside of the city of Vancouver and fall outside of the geographic scope of this study (e.g. Port Moody). Monitoring and enforcement DFO operates three offices whose jurisdiction includes the Burrard Inlet: the Pacific Regional Headquarters in Vancouver, the Center for Aquaculture & Environmental Research in West Vancouver and the Capilano Fish Hatchery. Research, monitoring and enforcement related to fisheries are indirectly linked to commercial and recreational fishing activities. Food, social and ceremonial fisheries First Nations' harvest for food, social and ceremonial (FSC) purposes may occur by designated individuals under an authorized aboriginal communal license or harvest document or under fishery treaty agreements (DFO 2014). First Nations' communal licenses and harvest documents identify the locations where FSC fishing can occur; typically, these locations are close to the specific First Nation's reserve lands. The legal right of First Nations to fish for food, social and ceremonial (FSC) purposes was enshrined by the Supreme Court of Canada in 1992 (Robinson Consulting &. Associates 2012). FSC fisheries have legal priority over commercial and recreational fisheries. While not a market-based industry, fishing provides First Nations communities in the region with a source of food and holds spiritual and cultural significance. Indian Arm, in particular, is an important hunting and fishing area for the Coast Salish First Nation, including the Tsleil-waututh, Musqueam and Squamish bands (BC Parks 2014). Designated members of these bands engage in annual FSC salmon and crab fisheries for the community (TWN 2014). Fish are then distributed fresh, canned, smoked or frozen to community members, depending on the time of year, to increase access to seafood species harvested within their traditional territory. There is no comprehensive, multi-species, published FSC catch data for DFO Management Area 28. Furthermore, the value of FSC catch cannot be estimated using methods applied to commercial catch (e.g. ex-vessel prices) because of the many social, cultural, educational and other benefits associated with FSC fishing (Hotte & Sumaila 2012). FSC fishing contributes considerably to the health and well-being of First Nations communities and the educational, social and cultural values of FSC fishing activities are irreplaceable (Hotte & Sumaila 2012). In the absence of adequate valuation methods to account for these benefits, the value of FSC fisheries is not included in this study. 2.1.2. Port activities Port Metro Vancouver operates as a non-shareholder, financially self-sufficient corporation reporting to the Federal Minister of Transport. Port Metro Vancouver is the busiest port in Canada and handled 19 percent of Canada's total trade in goods in 2013 while supporting trade with 160 economies worldwide (PMV 2013). Port Metro Vancouver's operations in the City of Vancouver's Inner Harbour encompass the South Shore Trade Area, which runs the length of the Vancouver waterfront from the Second Narrows bridge to Canada Place and includes two waterfront parks; New Brighton Park in East Vancouver and Crab Park in Gastown. This area houses 10 of Port Metro Vancouver's 28 terminals. Port Metro Vancouver is engaged in both shipping and cruise operations. Shipping There are five bulk terminals in the South Shore Trade Area. The Alliance Grain Terminal is a leading Canadian farmer-directed agri-business and one of Canada's largest grain businesses handling wheat, barley, canola and pulses for export mainly to Asia and the Pacific Rim (PMV web). Viterra Inc. owns and operates Canada's largest grain handling network and its Cascadia terminal handles wheat, durum, canola, barley, rye, oats and by-products while its Pacific Elevator terminal handles canola, flax, peas, and various bulk manufactured agri-forage and by-products (PMV website). Lantic Inc. refines, processes, distributes and markets Rogers Sugar brand products in Western Canada and imports bulk raw sugar (PMV website). West Coast Reduction is the largest independent renderer in Western Canada and handles inedible tallow, feather meal, poultry meal, blood meal, fish meals, and fish oil (PMV website). There are two container terminals in the South Shore Trade Area. Canterm's container facility, operated by DP World, handles cargo for some of the world's largest shipping lines while Vanterm, operated by TSI Terminal Systems Inc. handles containerized cargo, project cargo and bulk oils (PMV website). Port Metro Vancouver handled 135 million metric tonnes of cargo in 2013 (PMV 2013)4. Although Port Metro Vancouver's total cargo volume hit a low of 102 metric tonnes in 2009 due to the global economic turndown (InterVISTAS 2012), annual cargo tonnage has been increasing steadily with 2013 volumes representing a 32 percent increase over 2009 volumes. 1 Author's calculations based on Port Metro Vancouver Facts and Stats 2013 Cruises Vancouver is also home to two cruise ships ports operated by Port Metro Vancouver, both operating out of downtown Vancouver. Port Metro Vancouver's cruise ship terminals have been a leading homeport for the Alaskan cruise market for over 20 years and in 2013, Vancouver was named the Top North American Home Port by TripAdvisor's cruise critic (Trip Advisor 2013). Vancouver's two downtown cruise terminals, located at Canada Place and Ballantyne Pier, welcomed 235 vessels carrying more than 813,000 passengers in 2013 (PMV 2014). Round-trip cruises to Alaska comprise 50 percent of cruise itineraries, one-way cruise trips to Alaska comprise 40 percent of cruise itineraries, while the remaining traffic is in-transit, repositioning and Pacific-Northwest cruises (InterVISTAS 2012). The cruise industry is an important driver for Vancouver's tourism industry as cruise travellers often spend one night or more in Vancouver prior to boarding, or after disembarking the vessel. A Vancouver cruise industry economic impact assessment estimated the average additional spending per passenger, per visit in Vancouver at $316 while the average spending per crew member, per visit was $103 (InterVISTAS 2012). A study by Scarfe (2011) suggests that homeports capture 8.5 times the economic benefits of port-of-call ports such as Victoria. The Vancouver cruise industry has been on an overall decline since its peak in 2002 when it processed over one million revenue passengers (PMV 2014), a decline that has been largely attributed to the emergence of the Port of Seattle as an alternative homeport for the Alaskan market (InterVISTAS 2012). The Vancouver Alaskan Cruise industry experienced a steep slump from 2010 2012 hitting a low of 579,000 passengers in 2010 (PMV 2014). Although the industry has not recovered to its 2002 peak, passenger volumes in 2013 indicate a 22 percent increase over 2012 volumes and 2014 passenger volumes are expected to match 2013 volumes (PMV 2014). Passenger volumes for 2013 (actual) and 2014 (projected) are slightly above the 10-year average of 806,000 revenue passengers. 2.1.3. Inner Harbour transportation Vancouver's Inner Harbour is a bustling transportation hub offering public transportation via Seabus between North Vancouver and downtown Vancouver and regular commercial and sightseeing seaplane service to Vancouver Island, the Sunshine Coast and Whistler. False Creek is home to two water taxi services. False Creek Ferries and the Aquabus. Seabus Translink operates three commuter ferries on a 12-minute route that ferries passengers across 3.2 km of ocean between the Lonsdale Quay in North Vancouver and Waterfront Station in Downtown Vancouver. A total of 16,000 passengers travel on the Seabus' 120 sailings daily, amounting to six million passenger trips per year (Metro Vancouver 2014). In the event of a Seabus service disruption, Translink offers a commute option via bus across the Lions Gate Bridge to Waterfront Station (Translink, pers. comm., June 15, 2014). Buses carry fewer passengers than a Seabus vessel, so it is expected that commuters would experience travel delays with subsequent impacts to the Vancouver economy. It is also possible that the Lions Gate and Ironworkers Memorial bridges may be closed in the event of a hydrocarbon spill, which would prevent any travel between the North Shore and Vancouver resulting in a larger disruption to the Vancouver economy. The economic impact to the City of Vancouver resulting from Seabus service disruption due to a hydrocarbon spill has not been included in the analysis. The data required to estimate the magnitude and duration of the impact of a hydrocarbon spill (e.g. proportion of Seabus passengers whose final destination is Vancouver, emergency transportation plan in the event of Seabus disruption, cost of emergency transportation options) was not available, and collection of primary data was beyond the scope of the analysis. Floatplanes The Vancouver Harbour Flight Centre (CHX) is located in the heart of Downtown Vancouver, adjacent to the Vancouver Convention Centre, and houses 18 seaplane slips. It offers a permanent home to four floatplane operators and processed 282,414 passengers in 2013 (Marty Allard, pers. comm., Aug. 15, 2014). With a fleet of 34 aircraft, Harbour Air is the largest carrier at CHX and offers commercial float plane service on regularly scheduled flights between downtown Vancouver and Victoria, Nanaimo, Comox, the Gulf Islands and Sechelt. All aircrafts are available for sightseeing as well as private charter flights. Harbour Air also operates WestCoast Air and Whistler Air (Harbour Air website). Seaair Seaplanes offers up to 12 scheduled daily flights from downtown Vancouver to Nanaimo during peak season and a wide variety of charter services which have become a major component of the company's 10 business (Seaair website). Tofino Air offers charter service to downtown Vancouver (Tofino Air web) while Salt Spring Air offers scheduled service between Salt Spring Island and downtown Vancouver (Salt Spring Air website). Scheduled commercial flights are popular with business travellers, leisure travellers and tourists alike, as they offer the convenience of downtown-to- downtown air service. All airlines also offer a wide variety of charter and sightseeing services which range from 30-minute panoramic tours of the city and mountains (approx. $112 per person), to remote scenic experiences at isolated alpine lakes (approx. $325), to combination packages which include return air transport to a neighbouring community combined with a second activity such as whale watching ($429), kayaking ($160) and fishing (prices on request based on destination) (Harbour Air website). Vancouver-based floatplane carriers report that 95 percent of sightseeing/scenic passengers are tourists (Stephanie Isted, pers. comm., June 24, 2014; June 27, 2014). Seaplane sightseeing service is highly seasonal and in 2013, 54 percent of scenic flights took place during the summer, 27 percent during the spring, 12 percent during the fall and 7 percent during the winter.5 False Creek Water Taxis False Creek Ferries and the Aquabus operate water-based point-to-point transit and sightseeing services in False Creek. Adult fares range from $3.25 to $5.50 per person depending on the route with options for purchasing day/month/year passes (False Creek Ferries and Aquabus website). Service is offered between many False Creek locations: Granville Island, David Lam Park, Spyglass Place, Stamp's Landing, The Village (Olympic Village), Plaza of Nations, Hornby Street, Maritime Museum and Vancouver Aquatic Centre. False Creek Ferries and the Aquabus serve tourists and residents and contribute to the marine economy, however lack of publicly available data regarding ridership forces the exclusion of these operations from the study. Since the economic contribution of water taxis to the ocean economy is quite small, the results of this analysis are not expected to be significantly affected. 5 Author's calculations based on passenger statistics provided by Harbour Air through personal communication with Stephanie Isted on June 24 and June 27, 2014. 11 2.1.4. Ocean-dependent tourism Tourism is a major economic driver in BC with 6.5 percent of British Columbians being employed in tourism-related activities in 2012 (Hallin 2014). Within BC, the Vancouver, Coast & Mountains Region6 (VCM) employs 64 percent of the province's tourism sector (Tourism BC 2012). On average, Metro Vancouver7 attracts over eight million overnight visitors per year (Tourism Vancouver 2012) while the Vancouver, Coast & Mountains Region captures 57.8 percent of tourism business in the Province of BC (Destination BC 2012). Outdoor recreation activities were reported as the primary motivator for 48 percent of those likely to take a trip to the Vancouver, Coast & Mountains Region, followed by experiencing scenery and nature (32%) and to relax and unwind (16%) (Tourism BC 2012). Water-based outdoor activities motivated 33 percent of Canadian travellers' vacation plans, while 64 percent reported participating in water-based outdoor activities even if they were not the primary reason for travel (Tourism BC, TAMS CAD 2007). American visitors to BC were highly active in outdoor activities while on trips, when compared to the average US pleasure traveller to all Canadian destinations, and outdoor activities motivated 25 percent of American travel to BC, while 52 percent of American travellers to BC participated in water-based outdoor activities while on vacation (Tourism BC, TAMS US 2007). Overnight visits to Metro Vancouver based on geographic origin indicates that 32 percent of visitors are from BC, 30 percent from elsewhere in Canada (outside of BC), 23 percent from the US and 15 percent from outside Canada and the US (Tourism Vancouver 2011). Canadian and US visitors to Metro Vancouver represent 85 percent of total visitors. In the Travel Activities and Motivation Survey for Canadian Tourists (TAMS CAD 2007), British Columbia was overwhelmingly rated as the most appealing of all the Canadian provinces to visit with 70 percent of respondents rating BC as very appealing. When choosing a destination to visit, feeling safe at the destination (66%) and not having any health concerns at the destination (50%) were very important considerations in deciding where to travel (Tourism BC, TAMS CAD 2007). 6 Vancouver, Coast & Mountains Tourism Region (VCM) is one of six recognized tourism regions in British Columbia. The region encompasses four destination areas: Metro Vancouver, Sea to Sky Country (including Whistler Resort), Mighty Fraser Country (including the Fraser Canyon) and the Sunshine Coast. 7 The Greater Vancouver Regional District is also referred to as Metro Vancouver and includes the municipalities of Anmore, Belcarra , Bowen Island, Bumaby, Coquitlam, Delta, Langley, Lions Bay, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, Surrey, Tsawwassen, Vancouver, West Vancouver, White Rock, Electoral Area A, Abbotsford. 12 In 2013, overnight visitors to Vancouver spent an average of $92.38 per person, per night with an average trip duration of 4.6 days (Tourism Vancouver Visitor Profiles 2008-2011). BC residents' same-day expenditures while leisure travelling in the Vancouver, Coast 8i Mountains Region were $73.66 per person (Destination BC 2010). This study estimates the contribution of the ocean and waterfront to tourism in Vancouver. Ocean-dependent tourism is examined in three distinct categories: 1) on-water recreation (i.e. marine recreation); 2) waterfront park, beach and seawall use; and 3) ocean-based and waterfront events. 2.1.5. Ocean-dependent recreation The calm ocean waters surrounding Vancouver are a mecca for watersport enthusiasts. From skimboarding on the tidal flats of Spanish Banks to kayaking or dragon boating through the waters of False Creek, to stand-up paddleboardling and paddleboard yoga in English Bay, Vancouver residents and visitors participate in a wide range of watersports, which gives rise to a bustling regional ocean-dependent recreation economy. A total of 91 percent of British Columbians participate in some form of outdoor activity on an annual basis (Sorensen-Lawrence and Tourism BC 2013). As expected for a community in such close proximity to the water, Vancouver, Coast & Mountains (VCM) residents participate in ocean-dependent outdoor activities at a much higher rate than the BC population. The most popular outdoor activity in the region was hiking (53%) followed by ocean-side beach activities (48%) and over one-quarter of the VCM population reported swimming in the ocean (Sorensen-Lawrence and Tourism BC 2013). Other notable ocean-dependent activities with high participation rates include whale watching or marine based wildlife watching (16%) and motorized boating on the ocean (14%) (Sorensen-Lawrence and Tourism BC 2013). It is interesting to note that freshwater beach activities (including picnicking) at a lake or river were the 3rd most popular activity (46%) in the VCM region and swimming in a lake or river ranked fifth for the region (43%) (Sorensen-Lawrence and Tourism BC 2013). The high participation rates for both ocean-dependent and freshwater activities illustrate the vast opportunities for outdoor water-based recreation in the Vancouver, Coast 8i Mountains Region and the ample options available for Vancouver residents to recreate on the water in neighboring municipalities. A 2012 study from Simon Fraser University reports that 17.7 percent of the Metro Vancouver population participates in sea kayaking or canoeing for an average of 2.1 days per year and 28.5 percent spend an average of 4.6 days per year on the water fishing (Kux & Wolfgang 2012). 13 The most current census estimates the City of Vancouver's population at 603,502. Table 1 summarizes Vancouver residents' participation in ocean- dependent recreation in Vancouver based on participation rates reported by Sorensen-Lawrence and Tourism BC (2013). This is a snapshot of Vancouver residents' participation ocean-dependent recreation and does not include sports for which there was not publicly available data such as paddleboarding, skimboarding and sailing. Table 1: Vancouver resident participation in ocean-dependent recreation (annual) Total Rate Activity Participation (%) COOOs) Ocean-side beach activities (incl. picnicking) 48 290 Swimming in the ocean 28 169 Whale watching/marine-based wildlife viewing 16 97 Motorized boating on the ocean 14 84 Sea kayaking/canoeing 18 109 Ocean fishing 18 169 (Data sources: Statistics Canada 2011; Kux and Wolfgang 2012; Sorensen-Lawrence and Tourism BC 2013) Canadian and American overnight visitors' travel motivations and participation rates for ocean-dependent recreation are taken from Statistics Canada Travel Activities and Motivation Surveys (Tourism BC, TAMS CAD and US 2007). Table 2 reports the percentage of overnight travelers visiting a Canadian destination whose trip was motivated by a specific ocean-dependent activity, and the percentage of overnight travelers visiting a Canadian destination who participated in certain ocean-based activity even if this activity was the not a trip motivator. Table 2: Overnight visitor participation in ocean-dependent recreation (%) Canadian Travellers American Travellers Activity Motivated Participated Motivated Participated Salt water fishing 1 4 2 7 Ocean kayaking 1 4 0 2 Motor boating 4 17 2 9 Sailing 1 4 1 3 Scuba-ocean 1 3 1 3 Sunbathing/ sitting on beach 17 39 12 28 Whale watching 3 11 n/a n/a Swimming in ocean 8 27 8 27 (Data sources: Tourism BC - Travel Activity and Motivation Surveys for CAD and US Travellers 2007) 14 Tourism Vancouver Island conducted a visitor exit study in 2007 which analyzed the motivation and travel experiences of tourists visiting the Vancouver Island Region from off-Island. No similar study exists for the Metro Vancouver Region, but given the similarities of the two coastal regions, important parallels can be drawn relating to tourists' travel motivations. Three percent of travellers reported "marine activities" to be their primary trip motivator (Tourism Vancouver Island 2007). Although overnight tourist participation in ocean-dependent recreation in Vancouver is well understood, day-visitor travel to Vancouver from neighbouring municipalities to participate in ocean-dependent recreation is not well documented (excluding day-visitor beach and seawall use which is covered in a subsequent section). Lack of primary data regarding day-visitor participation in ocean-dependent recreation forces the exclusion of these activities from the study, as the collection of primary data was outside the project scope. A 2005 Destination BC study reported that the Vancouver, Coast & Mountain Region is home to 204 ocean based outdoor business operations. Operations by category are provided below with the number of operators in brackets: Salt Water Fishing-No Lodge (37), Salt water Ocean Kayaking (48), Boat Charters (77), Scuba Diving (24), Marine Wildlife Viewing (2), Sail Cruising (30) and Pocket Cruising (7). Recreational fishing Several species are caught recreationally within the Burrard Inlet, including Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister), spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias), Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) and several species of groundfish, such as sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) (DFO 2013). The fishing of any rockfish (e.g. canary, China, copper, rougheye) or lingcod (Ophiodon elongatus), including catch and release, is prohibited in Burrard Inlet (DFO 2014); however, catches do occur and some are reported. Catches of bivalves (e.g. clams, mussels) is also not permitted in Burrard Inlet due to sanitary concerns and crabs may not be caught at nighttime (DFO 2014). Safety- related closures along navigational paths are also in effect. All recreational fishers must hold a British Columbia Tidal Waters Sport Fishing License. All five salmon species are subject to seasonal restrictions and daily catch limits and fishing hooks must be barbless (DFO 2014). Other species, such as Spot prawns, are also subject to a daily catch limit, but may be caught throughout much of the year (DFO 2014). Between 1999 and 2009, annual 15 reported recreational catches in Area 28, which includes Burrard Inlet and Howe Sound, ranged from less than 5,000 pieces of fish to more than 63,000 pieces (DFO 2013), indicating inter-annual variation in catch and/or reporting. DFO notes that there is "limited information on recreational catch and effort" of the prawn and shrimp recreational fishery (DFO 2014). Recreational catch reporting has been mandatory since 2013 under the Tidal Waters Sport Fishing License so future research is needed as the data becomes available on the economic value of the recreational fishery (DFO 2014). Recreational fishing is a leisure activity and a source of food for personal consumption for a diverse group of residents and tourists (i.e. non-residents) of the region (DFO 2014). Off-shore fishing charter operators based in Vancouver also take clients outside the Burrard Inlet for fishing, but generate revenue within the City of Vancouver. The Capilano River hatchery provides locals the opportunity to fish for salmon from spring until late fall (Hsu, 2014). Other popular fishing areas are the Ambleside and Dundarave piers in West Vancouver and Belcarra Regional Park near Port Moody (Hsu 2014). Beaches, waterfront parks and seawall With ten sandy beaches8 skirting the shoreline from Kitsilano to the West End (Figure 3), Vancouver has been named one of the world's Top 10 Beach Cities by National Geographic.9 Second Spanish Banks English (West, East, ext.) Figure 3: Map of Vancouver beaches and seawall. 8 Beaches included in this study are Spanish Banks Extension, Spanish Banks West, Spanish Banks East, Locarno, Jericho, Kits, Sunset, English Bay, Second, Third. 9 See: http://travel.nationalgeographic.com/travel/top-10/beach-cities-photos/ 16 Vancouver beaches attract over three million users per year,10 waterfront parks attract another five million11 and the seawall, a scenic 22 kilometer path which meanders the city's waterfront, attracts another 2.7 million users per year.12 Vancouver beaches are popular with local residents and on an average day from the end of May to September, 54 percent of beach users are locals, another 23 percent are day-visitors from outside the City of Vancouver and the remaining 23 percent are overnight tourists (Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014). Locals make up 64 percent of seawall users, while day-visitors make up 13 percent of users, and overnight visitors make up 23 percent (Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014). The Vancouver Waterfront Survey (2014) suggests that 68 percent of local beach and seawall users visited the waterfront for a few hours or less each visit, with most staying for a few hours, while 27 percent reported staying half a day or more. Day visitors spent the most time at the beach or seawall with 36 percent spending half a day or more (64 percent a few hours or less) per visit, while 30 percent of overnight visitors spent half a day or more at the waterfront (70 percent a few hours or less) per visit. Local residents who were surveyed on the Vancouver waterfront ranked their preferred use of waterfront amenities as follows: seawall (40%), beach/sand (28%), grassy areas (18%), courts and recreational facilities (7%) and in/on the water (7%) (Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014). Day visitors and overnight visitors reported similar preferences. Almost all of the Vancouver residents surveyed on the beaches and seawall during July 2014 (96% of respondents) reported spending some of their days off at the waterfront, and on any given day between May and September, it is estimated that 66 percent of total "local" waterfront users are there on a day off (Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014). Locals who spent some of their days off at the beach were asked about the importance of the waterfront in their decision to spend their days off in Vancouver with 80 percent of respondents reporting that the waterfront was very important to this decision, 12 percent reporting that it was somewhat important, two percent reporting that it was not very important and one percent reporting that it was not important at all13. Locals who used the waterfront on some of their days off were also asked if they would be willing to travel for waterfront/outdoor recreation if the 10 Annual beach usage reported by the City of Vancouver's official lifeguard counts from Victoria Day to Labour Day. Counts do not include grass/park users as these areas are not guarded. 11 Waterfront park usage derived from the Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014. See appendix I for a detailed description of methods used to develop this estimate. 12 Seawall usage estimated from Historic Seawall Counts - City of Vancouver Transportation Survey 2003-2006. See appendix I for a detailed description of methods used to develop this estimate. 13 5% of respondents did not respond to the question relating to the importance of the waterfront in their decision to spend their days off in Vancouver 17 waterfront in Vancouver was unavailable for use. Of the locals who reported that the waterfront was either very important or somewhat important in their decision to stay in Vancouver on their days off, 50 percent said they would travel to pursue outdoor recreation elsewhere if the waterfront were closed, while 19 percent said that they would travel but were not sure how often. Of those who would travel, 30 percent would be willing to travel 30 minutes or less, 40 percent would travel up to one hour, 22 percent would travel one-two hours, five percent would travel two-three hours and three percent would travel three hours or more. These figures suggest broad participation in many forms of ocean-dependent recreation by Vancouver residents, which would be disrupted in the event of a waterfront closure. Typically, economic impact analysis does not include expenditure by residents on activities within their home region since only tourism expenditures can be considered an export of goods and services resulting in direct economic impact. Tourism activity produces a gain or loss in the local economy while recreation by residents creates a transfer of revenue within the region but no associated gain or loss. The current analysis, supported by data from the 2014 Vancouver Waterfront Survey, suggests that expenditures by residents on some waterfront activities are also an export of goods and services that produce a gain or loss in the local economy. Since many local waterfront users state that access to the waterfront is a key determinant of their decision to recreate in Vancouver on their days off, and that they would be willing to travel to pursue outdoor recreation elsewhere, it is assumed that a closure of the waterfront would lead some residents to pursue outdoor recreation elsewhere and would result in a loss to the Vancouver economy. Ocean-based and waterfront events Every year, the City of Vancouver hosts hundreds of events from community street parties, to music and cultural festivals, to world class sporting events like the BMO Vancouver Marathon and the Rio Tinto Dragon Boat Festival. This analysis carves out the economic impact of events that are linked to the ocean environment, either directly (take place on the water), or indirectly (take place on the beach or the seawall). The events that have been included for analysis are inextricably linked to the waterfront environment and therefore reliant on access to the waterfront and the health of the ocean environment for their success. Ocean-dependent events have been organized into six categories, with the number of events and attendance/participation reported in Table 3. 18 Table 3: Ocean-based and waterfront events* in Vancouver #of Attendance/ Type ofEvent Events Participation* Events on the Water 20 428,200 Beach Events 5 58,300 Running Races (seawall) 12 182,000 Triathlons (seawall and ocean) 2 2,600 Community Events/Fundraisers 8 39,000 (seawall, beaches, waterfront parks) Arts/Cultural 2 134,000 (seawall, beaches, waterfront parks) * events noted above with the exception of 'events on the water' have 1000+ attendees/participants per event * attendance/participation rates include locals, day-visitors and overnight visitors and are reported by City of Vancouver and/or event organizers. This report attempts to include all events that take place on the water regardless of size, but given the difficulty of securing reliable attendance data for small events, the total number of events that take place on or near the water and thus the number ofattendees/participants are conservatively estimated. A complete list ofevents included in this analysis is available in Appendix II. Travel activity and motivation surveys indicate that festivals and events motivated 16 percent of Canadian travellers' holiday plans, while 43 percent attended or participated in a festival or event while on holiday (Tourism BC TANS CAD 2007). Fireworks displays motivated three percent of Canadian travel, while another 15 percent of travellers attended a fireworks event while on holidays. Attendance at amateur sporting events motivated five percent of Canadian travellers while 11 percent attended an amateur sporting event. US visitors to BC have similar travel habits with 55 percent of American visitors to BC attending a fair or festival (includes fireworks, community events and free outdoor concerts). Ocean-based and waterfront events in the City of Vancouver attract local residents, day-visitors who come to Vancouver for an event but do not spend the night in Vancouver, as well as overnight visitors who come to Vancouver for an event and spend at least one night in Vancouver. Aggregated spectator/participant composition for each type of event is provided in Table 4. The percentage of day visitors and overnight visitors motivated to travel because of the event is provided in brackets (expressed as a percentage of total attendees). 19 Table 4: Ocean-based and waterfront events: participation and motivation rates for locals, day-visitors, and overnight visitors. Overnight Day Visitor (%) Visitor (o/o) Event Type Local (%) (primary travel (primary travel motivation, %) motivation, %) Events on the Water 50 30 (24) 20 (7) Beach Events 75 13 (11) 12(5) Running Races/Triathlons 44 44 (100) 12 (100) Community Events/Fundraisers 50 30 (25) 20(9) Arts/Cultural 50 30 (25) 20(9) (Data source: Attendance at events and travel motivation calculated by analyzing survey data from the Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014 and from data provided by event organizers regarding registration and attendance at events. Detailed methodology in Appendix I). In 2013, ocean-dependent events in the City of Vancouver attracted 417,000 tourists of whom 306,000 were primarily motivated to come to the City to attend or participate in the event.14 Apart from running races and triathlons, where all out of town participants are deemed to be motivated to travel to participate in the event, more than 80 percent of day-visitor event attendees/participants are motivated to travel to the city for ocean-based and waterfront events while 40 percent of overnight visitors are motivated to travel to the city for ocean-based and waterfront events.15 14 Tourist attendance/participation in ocean-based and waterfront events for 2013 was calculated by applying travel motivation data obtained through the Vancouver Waterfront Survey (2014) to attendance/participation rates as reported by event organizers in 2013. 15 Author's calculations based on Vancouver Waterfront Survey (2014) and attendance data provided by event organizers. Running and triathlon events were deemed to motivate 100% of out of town race tourism since athletes must pre-register for the events. 20 2.2. Proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project If approved, the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) will generate economic activity (i.e. output value, employment and GDP) associated with development and operation of the expanded Westridge Marine Terminal and pipeline facilities. Capacity of the existing Burnaby tank farm will also be expanded with the addition of 14 new tanks, which will increase the number of tanks from 13 to 27 and the total terminal capacity from 1,685,000 barrels to 4,020,000 barrels (TMP 2013, p. 2-23). TMP (2013) outlines the development period for the Westridge Marine Terminal, which is expected to begin in Q4 2015 and extend through late 2017, followed by demolition of the existing berth. Construction of TMEP is expected to occur between May 2016 and July 2017 (TMP 2013). Once development is complete, TMEP will enter the operations phase. The existing Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMPL) has been operating for 60 years (TMP 2013); TMP anticipates that TMEP will remain operational for a minimum of 50 years (TMP 2013). Hodgson (2014) estimated the total potential economic activity generated by the project across Canada and at the provincial level over a 25-year period (2012-2037), including development and operations phases, using information provided by TMP and Statistics Canada Input/Output Multipliers. Total expenditure on the proposed TMEP during the development phase is estimated at $5,500 million (TMP 2013) over a seven-year period (2012-2018), including planning, procurement and construction. Adjusted for price increases and exclusive of financing costs, Hodgson (2014) bases the economic analysis of project benefits on expenditures of $4,600 million in 2012 dollars. Hodgson (2014) estimates that, during the development phase, the project will generate a nation-wide total of 58,037 PYs of total employment (35,864 PYs in BC), including employment generated through higher netbacks on oil and expected increases in royalty and tax revenues to provincial (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and federal governments. The proposed TMEP is also estimated to contribute $4,900 million to GDP ($2,900 million in BC) (Hodgson 2014). Economic impacts of the operations phase are attributed to labour, facilities maintenance and other inputs. The analysis in the TMP application includes two scenarios of economic impact during the operations phase: i) a minimum estimate, which includes only existing, signed contracts and commitments; and ii) a maximum estimate, which assumes that the pipeline is fully utilized (Hodgson 2014). Currently, 80 percent of the nominal capacity of the expanded system is committed through written contracts (TMP 2013, p.2-36). 21 These two scenarios project total employment across Canada during project operations at 50,273 PYs and 65,184 PYs (30,269 PYs to 39,246 PYs in BC), respectively, including employment resulting from higher netbacks and increased government revenues. Project operations are estimated to contribute between $13 billion and $17 billion to Canada's GDP ($8.5 billion to $11.0 billion in BC) (Hodgson 2014). 2.3. A summary of previous case studies: tanker spill impacts Spills can occur for a number of reasons; for example, tankers can collide or be damaged in storms and accidents can occur in the storage, transportation and/or loading of oil for transit (Burgherr 2007). These incidents can have significant ecological, social and economic impacts, which are affected by the amount of oil spilled, the location of the spill, the proximity to sensitive ecosystems and the choice and success of cleanup efforts (Burgherr 2007). Assessing the impacts of other oil spills provides insight into the potential impacts that could occur in the Burrard Inlet. In this section, seven spills - Houston Ship Channel, Mississippi River, Kalamazoo River, Sabine-Neches Waterway, Cosco Busan, Exxon Valdez and Deepwater Horizon - are briefly described to provide examples of their economic, environmental and social impacts. The economic impacts of these spills are summarized in Table 5 and underpin analysis of potential economic impacts of a spill in Burrard Inlet in this study. 2.3.1. Houston Ship Channel spill, 2014 In March 2014, an oil tanker and a barge collided, spilling 4,000 barrels of oil into the Houston Ship Channel near Houston, Texas (Rice et al. 2014). Spilled oil, in the form of tar balls, washed up on nearby beaches two days after the event. In the wake of the incident, Coast Guard officials closed the channel to all vessels including passenger ferries (Rice et al. 2014). The closure was implemented to aid authorities' efforts to contain and recover spilled oil. Despite clean-up efforts, oil spread up to 19 kilometers into nearby Galveston Bay due to wind and wave action. The Channel remained closed to all vessels for a period of three days, causing delays for approximately 100 vessels, including cruise ships (Cook 2014; Fitzsimmons 2014; Kuo 2014). The Port of Houston Authority estimated the economic impact of ship closures at $330 million per day (Powell 2014). With a total reported annual economic impact of $178.5 billion USD in 2011 (Port of Houston Authority 2012), equivalent to a total of $184.9 billion USD in 2013 or $506 million per day, the economic impact of a port closure can be estimated as approximately 65 percent of the average daily output value of the Port of Houston. 22 2.3.2. Mississippi River spill, 2014 A 104-kilometer section of the Mississippi River, including the Port of New Orleans, was closed to all ship traffic in February 2014 following a collision between a barge and a towboat (McConnaughey 2014a). Approximately 750 barrels of oil were spilled near Vacherie, 50 kilometres west of New Orleans. The closure remained in place for two days and delayed passage for at least 30 vessels (McConnaughey 2014b). 2.3.3. Kalamazoo bitumen spill, 2010 There has only been one instance of a diluted bitumen spill in a marine environment, which occurred in July of 2010 in the Kalamazoo River in Michigan, USA. The spill lasted for over 17 hours before an emergency response team arrived at the scene, and over 20,000 bbls of oil were spilled into the river affecting approximately 65 km of shoreline (Dollhupf & Durno 2011). Some 30 to 50 households were evacuated immediately following due to a high level of benzene in the air (>1 part per million). Residents with water wells near the river were advised not to use the water until the wells could be tested. Members of communities along the impacted waterways experienced health impacts such as headache, nausea and respiratory symptoms, which are consistent with known health effects associated with acute exposure to crude oil (Stanbury et al. 2010). Unlike crude oil, which is less dense than water, the denser diluted bitumen sank to the bottom of the river, making cleanup efforts extremely difficult (Dollhupf & Durno 2011). Traditional methods of cleanup like booming sensitive environments and using chemical dispersants to break down the oil could not be used in the cleanup response in the Kalamazoo. Instead, non- traditional methods like sediment flushing, raking, aeration and dredging were used and continue to be used to clean oil off the bottom of the river bed. Recovery efforts are still in process, with dredging continuing in sections of the river four years after the initial spill. The overall cost of the spill cleanup and recovery was initially estimated to be $550 million USD in 2010; this estimate was revised to $765 million USD in 2011 (Enbridge Energy LP 2011) and then to $1,000 million USD in 2013 (Shogren 2013). 23 2.3.4. Deepwater Horizon oil spill, 2010 On April 20, 2010 the mobile offshore drilling unit Deepwater Horizon exploded, caught fire and subsequently sank while drilling a well for BP in the Macondo prospect {Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Trustee Council 2012). The incident killed 11 men and injured 17 others and resulted in the release of an estimated five million bbls of oil into the Gulf of Mexico over nearly three months. The Deepwater Horizon well was the first large deep-sea spill in history (Schrope 2014). Soon after the event, researchers found evidence that a substantial portion of the oil was suspended in layers of deep ocean water in a highly diffuse form. BP, the primary operator of the well, denied the finding; however, it was later established that more than one-third of the oil (approximately two million bbls) was deposited in patches across at least 3,200 km2 of deep-sea sediments (Schrope 2014). The impact of this oil on deep sea ecosystems is not yet known. Several important commercial and recreational fisheries exist within the Gulf of Mexico. Approximately 33 percent of commercial landings and 44 percent of recreational catch comes from the Gulf of Mexico {Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Trustee Council 2012). On April 29, 2010, a state of emergency was declared in Louisiana due to predictions that the oil slick would reach the coast (CNN 2010). Widespread commercial fishing area closures were implemented on May 2, 2010 (NOAA Fisheries 2014), affecting blue crab, royal red shrimp and other fisheries. Closures in the immediate area of the spill location remained in place until April 19, 2011 (NOAA Fisheries 2014). The 2012 Natural Resource Damage Assessment update reports that the full extent of impacts of the Deepwater Horizon spill may not be known for many years due to its geographic size, three-dimensional nature and ecological complexity {Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Trustee Council 2012). Potential natural resource injuries span five states (i.e., Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas) and their waters, as well as federal waters. BP initially estimated its cost of claims for economic losses suffered by businesses at $7,800 million USD; however, the company revised this estimate to $9,200 million USD in 2014 following a series of legal appeals (Crooks 2014). 24 2.3.5. Sabine-Neches waterway spill, 2010 Ship traffic within the Sabine-Neches Waterway, Texas, was restricted for four days in January 2010 following an oil spill that occurred when a barge collided with a tanker (Gonzalez and Malik 2010; Reuters 2010). Limited ship traffic was permitted passage after a four-day full closure. The incident resulted in 11,000 barrels of oil being spilled into the waterway, which is used to transport hydrocarbons to four refineries. The restrictions on shipping forced a decrease in activity at one or more refineries. 2.3.6. Cosco Busan tanker spill, 2007 In 2007, the Cosco Busan cargo ship struck the Bay Bridge in San Francisco and spilled 53,000 gallons of bunker fuel into the harbor for nearly an hour. Nearly 1,400 hectares of shoreline habitat was affected by the spill, including critical spawning areas for Pacific herring {Cosco Busan Oil Spill Trustees 2012). Though the Cosco spill was a relatively small event compared to other oil spill events in the past few decades, it is one of the few examples of a spill in a high density urban environment. For this reason, the spill serves as an important case study in assessing the potential impacts of a tanker spill in Burrard Inlet. The San Francisco Bay Area is home to 7.15 million people (United States Census Bureau 2010) and hosts approximately 17 million tourists each year (San Francisco Travel 2014). Similar to the Vancouver area, San Francisco tourism is built on both the cultural experience of the city as well as the natural beauty of the surrounding areas. Tourists and residents alike use the shoreline for walking, bicycling, wind-surfing and boating {Cosco Busan 0\\ Spill Trustees 2012). An analysis of the impact of the oil spill on recreational usage of the coast found that over one million user-days had been lost due to the accident. Using a benefit transfer valuation of these lost user-days, the total value of trips lost was estimated at $18.8 million USD. Sixty-two percent of survey participants reported that their outdoor recreation had been affected by the spill. Commercial and recreational fisheries were closed immediately after the spill, from November 14 through November 29, 2007. After the closure was lifted, an advisory was issued to commercial and recreational fishers to avoid exposure of catches to these residual impacted areas. Cleanup efforts lasted for more than a year, with beach closures continuing throughout the recovery process. Overall, cleanup of the Cosco Busan tanker spill was over $70 million USD, including $32.3 million USD in natural resource damages {Cosco Busan Oil Spill Trustees 2012). 25 2.3.7. Exxon Valdez oil spill, 1989 The Exxon Valdez spill in the spring of 1989 was the largest oil spill in the United States until the Deepwater Horizon oil spill of 2010. The Exxon Valdez tanker spilled 350,000 barrels of oil into the Prince William Sound of Alaska which affected 2,100 km of coastline. The ecological impacts were severe, including significant losses to wildlife; 250,000 seabirds, 2,800 sea otters, 300 harbour seals, 250 bald eagles and 22 killer whales were killed due to the spill (National Park Service 2009). The cleanup costs for the Exxon Valdez spill came to $2,100 million USD with a criminal fine of $25 million USD paid by Exxon and/or its insurers (Cohen 2010). The active cleanup lasted for about two years through the spring of 1991 while recovery projects are still occurring more than 20 years later. Many industries were affected by the spill, most notably tourism and commercial/recreational fishing. The losses to commercial fishermen were due to the closures of the salmon, herring, crab, shrimp, rockfish and sablefish areas in 1989 (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council 2009). Some of these areas remained closed into 1990. Some fish populations recovered over a matter of years, while others such as the Pacific herring population had not recovered even 20 years later. The herring commercial fishery has been closed for 13 out of the past 19 years (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council 2009). Overall the estimated loss to commercial fishers was $6.4-$41.8 million USD in 1989 and $ll.l-$44.5 million USD in 1990, primarily due to the loss of sockeye and pink salmon harvests. Recreational fishers were also affected by closures. The number of non resident fishing days fell by 25 percent after the spill (Oxford Economics, 2010). The decline is attributed to area closures, fear of contamination, unavailability of boats, and increased traffic at sites outside the spill boundaries. An estimated 127,527 sport fishing trips were lost in 1989 and 40,669 in 1990, contributing to an economic loss of $3.6-$50.5 million {Exxon Valdez 0\\ Spill Trustee Council 1994). Tourism businesses related to recreational fishing trips, as well as other marine recreational activities such as kayaking and bird watching were also impacted. Tourism businesses reported a 50 percent decline in business in 1992 as compared to before the spill {Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council 1994). Of the surveyed businesses, 43 percent felt they had been significantly affected by the oil spill {Exxon Valdez 0\\ Spill Trustee Council 1994). 26 2.4. Burrard Inlet tanker spill modelling The transport and fate of diluted bitumen in the marine environment differs from that of conventional oil, resulting in different rates of dispersion and evaporation and relative proportions of surface and subsurface hydrocarbons following a spill. Weathering and transport would also be affected by prevailing conditions (e.g. wind, current, tides, temperature) at the time of the spill (Short 2015) and during the subsequent response and clean-up. Under experimental conditions, both conventional crude oil and dilbit products have been found to float on sediment-free saltwater; however, the presence of fine sediments in saltwater combined with "high-energy wave action" caused mixing with dilbit and sinking or dispersal of "tarballs" (floating, heavily- weathered oil) (Environment Canada 2013). Under wave action, chemical dispersants were found to be effective with conventional crude oils, but of limited effectiveness for dispersing dilbit. The rate and extent of evaporation also differs between conventional oil and dilbit. In addition to differences in chemical composition between the two products, weathering and transport are also affected by prevailing conditions (i.e. wind, current, tides, temperature) at the time of a spill and during the ensuing response and clean-up. Thus, the impacts of a spill in Burrard Inlet will be different from those previously described (i.e. Kalamazoo River, Cosco Busan, Exxon Valdez and Deepwater Horizon). However, impacts experienced during previous spills can provide an important starting point to estimate potential impacts of a spill in Burrard Inlet. Genwest (2015) created a two-dimensional model to analyze the spill trajectories of four oil spill scenarios in the Burrard Inlet. A spill of 16,000 cubic metres (m3) was modeled at each of three locations: i) First Narrows Bridge; ii) Second Narrows under the Canadian National Railway Bridge; and iii) Outer Harbour at Anchorage #8. A fourth spill of 8,000 cubic metres (m3) was modeled at the Westridge Marine Terminal. Scenario modeling was conducted using GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) and incorporated physical transport processes (e.g. tidal currents), a constant wind, and historical observed wind and tide data (Genwest 2015). 27 Based on results from the four spill scenarios, Genwest concludes that the unique geophysical setting of the Burrard Inlet can result in distinctive behavior of oil in the event of a spill. The confined setting of the inlet can result in oil spreading quickly with potential to affect the entire inlet from the Port Moody and Indian Arms, to the Outer Harbour and beyond (Genwest 2015). Winds and tides are major drivers of oil movement in the inlet with strong winds tending to strand oil on the leeward shore while weak winds allow tidal currents to distribute oil over a larger area (Genwest 2015). Stochastic modeling also revealed that a substantial amount of oil was beached under the spill scenarios at the Westridge Marine Terminal, First Narrows and Second Narrows (Genwest 2015). The GenWest spill models assume that no weathering of oil takes place and that no spill response is conducted, and these assumptions enable the model to produce a clear picture of possible dispersion patterns within the inlet in the event of a spill. An unmitigated response was also used by TMP (2013, p. 7 158) in its marine spill scenarios to assess spill risk. While it is unlikely no response would occur, this assumption explores the potential extent of impacts that could occur in the event of a spill. Spill response along the BC coast is provided by Western Canada Marine Response Corporation, which must maintain the ability to respond to a marine spill of up to 10,000 tonnes, as required by Transportation Canada. 3. Methods 3.1. Calculating the economic contribution of existing ocean-dependent activities The baseline for the marine economy in the City of Vancouver has been calculated using three economic indicators: total revenue (value of total output), employment (in person years, 'PYs ), and contribution to GDP (value of total output less the cost of intermediate output, 'CDPO- It should be noted that profit was not included as one of the indicators due to the unavailability of published, publicly available data regarding operating costs for several industries. The effect on taxes was also excluded because the analysis was performed at the municipal level and insufficient data was available to identify impacts of the project on municipal tax revenues. 28 Even though the effect of a spill can last longer, a time horizon of 25 years was modeled to reflect the projected time horizon employed by Kinder Morgan in their application when forecasting the economic benefits of the Trans Mountain Pipeline (Hodgson 2014). The three indicators - total output, employment and contribution to GDP - are evaluated using methods previously employed by Cisernos-Montemayor and Sumaila (2010), Dyck and Sumaila (2010), Harper et al. (2011) McCrea-Strub et al. (2011) and Sumaila et al. (2012). This study assesses the following ocean-dependent economic activities within the City of Vancouver: 1) commercial fishing occurring in the Burrard Inlet; 2) Port Metro Vancouver's City of Vancouver operations and cruise ship activities; 3) marine transportation in the Burrard Inlet; 4) ocean-dependent tourism in Vancouver and; 5) local use of the waterfront. Ocean-dependent tourism encompasses several sub-sectors that are defined as tourist participation in on-water recreation, tourist use of Vancouver beaches and the seawall, and tourist participation in ocean-based or waterfront events. Tourists' in the latter two categories include day-tourists and overnight tourists. For each of the economic indicators (i.e. total output value, employment, GDP), we calculate the i) direct; ii) direct and indirect; and iii) direct, indirect and induced effects of economic activities. Direct effects measure jobs, total output value and GDP resulting from the economic activity of businesses operating within the industries studied. Indirect effects measure jobs, total output value and GDP in related industries that supply goods and services to the primary industry studied. The commercial fishing industry, for example, supports firms involved in seafood processing, marketing, distribution and retail (Dyck and Sumaila 2010). Induced effects result from expenditure of income and wages earned through direct and indirect employment by ocean- dependent activities (BC MoE 2007). A detailed description of the analytical methods applied in this study, by industry, are included in Appendix I. 3.1.1. Commercial fisheries The value of commercial fisheries was estimated using landed (ex-vessel) catch weight and value for the spot prawn and Dungeness crab fisheries in DFO fisheries management sub-areas adjacent to the City of Vancouver during the years 2000-2013 (Martin Huang, pers. comm.. May 23, 2014 and June 10, 2014). Low and high estimates of annual landed values were determined using an average based on the six years with the lowest and highest catch values, respectively. Direct, indirect and induced economic impacts of the commercial fishing sector were estimated using input-output fishing, hunting and trapping multipliers for BC (Statistics Canada 2010). 29 3.1.2. Port activities Estimated total output value, employment and contribution to GDP for port and cruise ship activities was previously reported by InterVISTAS Consulting (2008, 2012). These estimates formed the basis of the current analysis and were not reviewed or verified within the scope of the current analysis. Statistics Canada BC water transportation multipliers (Statistics Canada 2010) were used to estimate the value of direct, indirect and induced economic output value, employment and GDP. 3.1.3. Inner Harbour transportation Given the difficulty of obtaining detailed financial information about floatplane operations, float plane industry revenues were used as a proxy for economic output value and have been estimated as the product of average ticket price (weighted by flight frequency) and annual passenger volumes for both commercial and sightseeing operations to and from CHX. Statistics Canada BC air transportation multipliers were used to calculate indirect and induced economic output value, employment and GDP (Statistics Canada 2010). 3.1.4. Ocean-dependent tourism Economic output value, employment and GDP for ocean-dependent tourism was calculated for three separate activity categories: i) on-water recreation (excluding swimming), ii) beach and seawall use (land-based waterfront activities plus swimming), and iii) attendance at/participation in ocean- based/waterfront events. Economic output value was calculated for overnight visitors only for the on- water recreation category, and for both overnight tourists and day-visitors in i) the beaches and seawall use category, ii) and ocean-based and waterfront events category. Total output value for overnight tourists' participation in on-water recreation was calculated as the product of average amount spent per day, total number of days in Vancouver, and total number of overnight tourists who participated in on-water recreation while on holidays, or whose motivation to visit Vancouver was to participate in on-water recreation (participation rates vs. travel motivation rates create a high-low range). Total output value for overnight tourists and day-visitors' use of beaches and the seawall was calculated as the product of average amount spent per day (weighted by the amount of time spent at the waterfront, e.g. 0.3 representing a few hours) and total number of visitors who visited the beach or seawall while on holidays in Vancouver. A high-low range was created using the confidence interval from the usage ratio of day-visitors, to overnight tourists, to locals from the Vancouver Waterfront Survey (2014). 30 Total output value for overnight tourists and day-visitors' participation/attendance at ocean-based or waterfront events was calculated as the product of average amount spent per day and total number of visitors whose motivation to visit Vancouver was to participate in/attend an ocean- based or waterfront event, and total number of visitors who participated in/attended an ocean-based or waterfront event in Vancouver regardless of whether the event was a primary travel motivation (participation rates vs. travel motivation rates create a high-low range). Overnight tourist expenditures are from Tourism Vancouver Overnight Visitor Profiles (2003-2013), with the exception of on-water recreation which are taken from the Non-Motorized Outdoor Recreation in BC study (SFU School of Resource Management 2012). Day-visitor expenditures are taken from the 2010 Travel Survey of Residents of Canada, analyzed by Destination British Columbia (2010). Day-visitor expenditures do not include lodging. Total economic effects for overnight tourists participation in on-water recreation, and overnight tourists' use of the beach and seawall were calculated using multipliers derived from Tourism BC (2004) by Hotte and Sumaila (2012) for marine recreation in British Columbia. Statistics Canada multipliers for performing arts, spectator sports and related industries and heritage institutions (Statistics Canada 2010) were used to calculate indirect and induced economic output value, employment and GDP for overnight tourists and day-visitors' participation in ocean-based and waterfront events and for day-visitors using Vancouver beaches and seawall. The growth rate applied is the tourism growth rate for Metro Vancouver based on 10 years of visitor data from 2003-2012 (Tourism Vancouver Visitor Stats). 3.1.5. Locals-Beaches and seawall The economic contribution of local residents using the waterfront on their days off was calculated as the product of average local spending per day (weighted by the amount of time spent at the waterfront, e.g. 0.3 representing a few hours) and the total number of annual local waterfront users using the waterfront on their day off who reported that the waterfront was a) important to their decision to spend their day off in Vancouver, and that b) they would travel elsewhere if the waterfront were not available for use. In including this calculation, we are implicitly assuming that locals have a choice in where to recreate on their days off. Local expenditures relating to enjoyment of waterfront amenities are akin to an export of goods and services, just as with tourism. This assumption is supported by the large number of locals who use the waterfront on their days off (95%), of whom 92 percent report that access to the waterfront is an important decision to stay in Vancouver on their days off, and of whom 69 percent said they would travel 31 outside the City to pursue outdoor recreation activities if the waterfront were unavailable. Statistics Canada amusement and recreational industries multipliers (Statistics Canada 2010) were used to calculate indirect and induced economic output value, employment and GDP. 3.2. The value of the proposed Trans Mountain pipeline project Estimated economic benefits of TMEP within BC have been published in Hodgson (2014) on behalf of TMP. The current analysis does not provide verification of these estimates. In order to estimate the economic benefit of the project within Vancouver and provide a benchmark for the current analysis, it is assumed that (i) there is a linear relationship between the economic indicators (i.e. output value, employment, GDP) at the national (i.e. Canada), provincial (e.g. BC), regional (e.g. Metro Vancouver) and local (e.g. Vancouver) levels; ii) the proportion of workers employed in Metro Vancouver relative to Canada as a whole during the development phase (25 percent, Sedley 2013; Hodgson 2014) also holds true for the operations phase; iii) the proportion of overall employment in Vancouver relative to Metro Vancouver also holds true for the TMEP (InterVistas 2013); and iv) the Statistics Canada Provincial Input/Output Multipliers are relevant at the local level. These assumptions are utilized in the absence of available information in TMP (2013) regarding benefits of TMEP at the regional and local levels and available input/output multipliers for Vancouver. Economic benefits associated with the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) across Canada and within British Columbia, including direct output value during both the construction and operations phases and total economic effects on employment and GDP, have been estimated by Hodgson (2014). The analysis encompassed a 25-year period from 2012-2037, including project development and operations phases, based on information provided by TMP and Statistics Canada's Input/Output Multipliers. Hodgson (2014) also estimated potential benefits to provincial (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and federal governments and resulting from royalty and corporate income tax payments; however, the effect on taxes was also excluded because the analysis was performed at the municipal level and insufficient data was available to identify impacts of the project on municipal tax revenues. The estimated expenditure of $4,580 million in 2012 dollars across Canada for project development from Hodgson (2014), based on TMP (2013), is adjusted to $4,620 million in 2013 dollars for the current analysis. Approximately 69.5 percent ($3,200 million) of this development expenditure is estimated to occur in BC (Hodgson 2014). Hodgson (2014) estimates additional annual direct output value and employment at $644 million and 342 PYs, respectively, during project 32 operations, of which approximately 71 percent ($457 million in output value, 242 PYs of employment) will occur in BC. 3.3. Derivation of oil spill impacts 3.3.1. Spill modelling Potential impacts of a tanker spill in Burrard Inlet are expected to be different than those of historical freshwater and marine spills (e.g. Exxon Valdez, Cosco Busan)) however, previous spills can provide some insight into the potential magnitude and duration of such a spill. The potential range of behaviour, fate and treatment options for a diluted bitumen spill in Burrard Inlet has been characterized by Short (2015). Behaviour of spilled diluted bitumen is characterized by rapid evaporation of gas condensate components and increasing density of remaining surface oil, leading to submergence. Oil on the surface of the ocean is expected to either submerge in the form of tarballs or become stranded on shorelines; a portion of the stranded oil would re-float back into the ocean. Under worst-case conditions (i.e. warm summer temperatures, moderate winds), diluted bitumen may begin to submerge within 24 hours of the initial spill. Genwest (2015) modeled oil spill trajectories for four oil spill scenarios in the Burrard Inlet and concludes that the models "provide a realistic representation of the behavior of oil spills in Burrard Inlet [and] can therefore be used to realistically evaluate the possible extent of oil spread resulting from a spill at the Terminal, Second Narrows, First Narrows, and the Outer Harbour locations."(p8) The First Narrows spill scenario was identified as having high potential to cause severe economic disruption to the City of Vancouver and thus is the spill scenario used in this economic analysis to identify the possible high end of the range of impacts to the Vancouver economy in the event of a spill. Section 3.3.2 describes how this spill scenario is used to create a range (from positive to negative) of potential economic impacts of a hydrocarbon spill in the Burrard Inlet. Using Genwest's model, the City of Vancouver's GIS and CAD department created an oil spill analysis map which shows the percentage of oil in each of the three zones of the Burrard Inlet (i.e. Outer Harbour, Inner Harbour, other areas which includes Central Harbour, Port Moody Arm and Indian Arm) 24 hours after a spill at the First Narrows (Figure 4). To create this map, the 16,000 m3 spill was represented by 8,000 splots (2000 m3 per splot). Wind and tide data was drawn from twelve randomly selected dates in the period from January through December 2005 to create SPLOT location maps which 33 represented where oil would end up under different environmental conditions during the year. These 12 SPLOT files, representing a random date from each month of the year 2005, were combined and the total number of splots that landed in each of the three zones were calculated to arrive at a percentage distribution. Figure 4 shows that virtually all stretches the City of Vancouver waterfront could be affected by a spill at the First Narrows at any time of year. ° nr Jifc Figure 4: Dispersion of oil after 24 hours from a 16,000 m3 spill at the First Narrows. 3.3.2. Spill scenarios The economic effects of a hydrocarbon spill on Vancouver's five key ocean- dependent economic activities have been estimated under three scenarios: 34 "no spill," "spill in May" and "spill in October." These scenarios were identified to characterize a range of potential economic impacts of TMEP on the City of Vancouver, ranging from positive (i.e. no spill) to negative (i.e. spill in May or October). These scenarios are representative of possible future outcomes from TMEP; true economic impacts of the project may be expected to occur somewhere within this range. The "no spill" scenario presents a 25-year baseline for projected industry development in the absence of a tanker spill, against which to compare the potential tanker spill impacts. Average annual growth rates derived from historical data were used to project future conditions for the economic indicators (i.e. economic output, employment and GDP) of Vancouver's five key ocean-dependent economic activities and does not address potential future growth in existing or new ocean-dependent activities. Two spill scenarios, one in May and one in October, were modeled and incorporate the ranges of impact from Table 5 (i.e. one-year year recovery period for cruise industry for the low impact scenario, and five-year recovery period for the high impact scenario) applied to the range of economic values for each industry. Both spills were modeled to occur in the year 2018. 3.3.3. Seasonal impacts of a hydrocarbon spill Economic impacts of these hypothetical spills in May and October capture seasonal differences in economic activity within the City of Vancouver. Based on dispersion modelling results obtained from GenWest (2015), it is assumed that the spill affects all of Burrard Inlet; this assumption supports estimation of impacts under the worst-case scenario. By comparing the "no spill," "May spill" and "October spill" scenarios, it is possible to identify a range of impacts (i.e. from best to worst case). Dungeness crabs are harvested year-round; however, the months of May through October tend to be the most productive for commercial fishermen (DFO 2009). The commercial spot prawn season opens on or after May 1 each year and closes by the end of June (DFO 2014). Floatplane transportation is highly seasonal, a May spill would affect 44 percent of annual business, whereas an October spill would affect 11 percent of annual business16 (Stephanie Isted, pers. comm., June 24 and 27, 2014). The majority of on-water activities and waterfront usage (beaches and seawall) in Vancouver occurs between the months of May and September and a spill in May would result in greater tourism losses than a spill in October with impacts being felt during peak tourist season. Waterfront and water-based 16 Calculations based on monthly sightseeing passenger volumes provided by Harbour Air, and thus we are assuming commercial passenger flights follow the same distribution. 35 events occur predominantly in the late spring, summer and early fall with only 13 percent of economic output value occurring prior to May 1 in an average year, therefore a spill in May has the potential to generate a greater economic impact than a spill in October because it precedes the event season. 3.3.4. Industry growth rates Impact modeling assumed an average annual growth rate of-3.57 percent for commercial fisheries based on annual average catch from 2007-2012 for Dungeness crab and spot prawns (Ministry of Agriculture 2011). Industry growth for Vancouver port operations was calculated using the annual change in total cargo volume from 2008-2013 (PMV Monthly Container Stats). Cruise ship growth was initially estimated using 10 years of annual passenger data but this yielded a negative growth rate that was not supported by current literature, which suggests that the Vancouver cruise industry is in recovery from its low in 2010 (PMV 2014). An annual growth rate of zero percent has been used and indicates that the industry remains stable but is not demonstrating signs of growth. The CHX floatplane transportation growth rate was estimated using commercial air transportation annual passenger volumes from 2010-2014 reported by Transportation Canada (Transport Canada). Multi-year passenger data for CHX was not available. The growth rate for all tourism related activities are assumed to be equal to the growth rate for tourism for Metro Vancouver and are based on 10 years of visitor data from 2003-2012 (Tourism Vancouver Visitor Stats). Industry growth in local use of beaches and seawall are assumed to be equal to the annual population growth rate for the City of Vancouver from 2006-2011 (Statistics Canada 2011). In these last two cases, participation rates are assumed to remain constant with growth being driven by increases in annual tourist and population growth, respectively. 36 Rates of economic growth, by industry, are applied to initial industry output value for the year 2013 using the following equation: Ni.t= Nii0(l+ry Where / represents the indicators (i.e. output value), r is the rate of growth and t= 0...24 (in years). Annual values for direct, indirect and induced output value, employment and GDP are calculated for the period 2013-2037. Methods for analyzing spill impacts were based on those used by Sumaila et al. (2012). All scenarios employ ex-ante forecasting of growth (i.e. using historical data to forecast future growth) for each industry over a 25-year time period. 37 3.3.5. Calculating potential impacts on ocean-dependent economic activities Potential impacts of a spill were modeled numerically, by activity, and category, where applicable, based on market recovery times listed in Table 5. These impacts are based on the case studies identified in Section 2.3. Ecological recovery times, while independent from market recovery times and not analyzed in this study, are nonetheless relevant; for example, ecological recovery is one factor that affects how quickly markets for seafood products recover following a hydrocarbon spill. Table 5: Assumed industry growth rates, spill impacts and market recovery times Annual Impact Industry Growth Segment Market Impact Duration Rate (%) Closure of all affected areas in Commercial Dungeness Crab, -3.57 Year 1, 1-2 years18 fishing Spot Prawn -50% in Year 2 (catch)17 Closure of all affected areas;- Port activities 0.5 Shipping 2-4 days20 65% per day (output value)19 20% in Year 1 0 Cruises 1-5 years22 (# of tourists)21 Inner Harbour Float plane 15% in Year 1 2.95 3 months24 transportation travel (# of travellers)23 Ocean- Shoreline use 20% in Year 1 dependent 0.09 2-8 years26 (tourists) (# of tourists)25 tourism Locals- Shoreline use 38% in Year 1 Beaches and 0.9 8 months28 (locals) (# of trips) 27 seawall 17 Freese & O'Claire (1995) 18 Freese & O'Claire (1995) 19 Port of Houston Authority (2012); Powell (2014). 20 Cook (2014); Kuo (2014); McConnaughey (2014b). 21 Oxford Economics (2009). 22 Oxford Economics (2009). 23 Aldy (2013). 24 Aldy (2013). 25 EVOS Trustee Council (2010); Oxford Economics (2009). 26 Oxford Economics (2009). 27 Stratus Consulting (2010). 28 Stratus Consulting (2010). 38 Real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) ex-vessel prices, seaplane fares and tourism expenditures are held constant and impacts are assumed to diminish following a linear impact gradient (e.g. over a four-year recovery period, impacts will diminish by 25% each year). Only existing industries are included in the analysis; potential impacts to proposed projects or projects currently under development in Vancouver are excluded. The present value of the economic indicator (0 for the five ocean-dependent economic activities (a) and the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project under each of the three spill scenarios were calculated over time (0, expressed as: pVi = ^y t=o where Xiiait represents the value of the economic indicator i (i.e. output value, GDP), Vi * employment, a denotes the industry t = 0...24 (in years) and the parameter d is the discount factor determined using the appropriate rate of discount applicable to the region. The values of these indicators were calculated for a 25-year time period (2013-2037) using a real discount rate of three percent which is a rate considered reasonable for environmental projects (Heal 2000; Sumaila & Walters 2005). Economic impacts associated with tanker spill scenarios are calculated and reported as the difference between present values (calculated over 25 years) of total economic indicators (i.e. direct, indirect and induced; economic output, GDP and employment) under the three spill scenarios (i.e no spill. May spill, October spill). 39 4. Results 4.1. Baseline values of ocean based industries The economic indicators (i.e. economic output, employment, GDP) for the five ocean-dependent economic activities (commercial fishing, port and cruise ship activities, transportation, marine tourism [seawall and beaches, on-water activities and waterfront events] and local use of the waterfront) analyzed in this study and total (i.e. direct, indirect and induced) economic effects are reported in the following sections. Table 6: Current baseline for ocean-dependent economic activities within the City of Vancouver (2013) Value of Contribution Industry Employment output (PYs) to GDP (2013, million) (2013, million) Commercial fishing 1-3 5-16 0.6-0.7 Port activities* 5,836 25,932 2,693 - shipping 4,884 20,173 2,160 - cruises 952 5,759 533 Inner Harbour transportation* 74 300 30 Ocean-dependent tourism+ 377-620 5,171-9,126 259-444 - on-water recreation 26-136 510-2,700 22-117 - beaches and seawall 292-402 4,001-5,502 204-281 - ocean-based/waterfront events 59-82 661-924 33-46 Locals-Beaches and seawall 145-170 1,114-1,307 78-92 32,523 Total All Industries 6,433-6,703 3,061-3,261 36,681 Numbers may not add up due to rounding * Figures reported by InterVISTAS Consulting 2008, 2012. A range of values was not provided. *Estimates are based on CHXpassenger data from 2013. Muiti-year data was not available and thus, a range of values is notprovided. + Sum of Tourism-waterfront events, on-water activities, beaches and waterfront (not including cruise ship tourism) 40 Ocean-dependent activities contribute a total of $6/430-$6,700 million in output value, 32,523-36,681 PYs of employment and $3,060 -$3,260 million in GDP to the Vancouver economy each year. Based on a proportion of working age individuals (74.6%) (Statistics Canada Census 2011) and a regional unemployment rate of (5.9%) (Service Canada 2015), ocean-dependent activities are estimated to directly employ four percent of the Vancouver population. When indirect and induced values are also considered, ocean- dependent activities provide employment for an equivalent of eight percent of the Vancouver population. 4.1.1. Commercial fishing The average crab vessel has 2-8 crew members29 on board including the captain (Yonis 2010). A 2007 report by Nelson Brothers Fisheries Ltd. suggests that crew shares made up of 25 percent of a vessel's net revenue in the Burrard Inlet (area J) (Nelson 2007) The average prawn vessel has 6 crew members, with 27 percent of a vessel's net revenue made up of crew shares (Nelson 2009). Processing facilities tend to concentrate around sources of reliable products and in 2008, almost 40 percent of the crab processors were located within the Greater Vancouver Region (Yonis 2010). Processing of wild shellfish generated 746 PY of employment in BC (13% of total fish processing sector employment) in 2008 (Yonis 2010). Dungeness crab processing, and prawn processing contribute 43 percent and 7 percent towards total wild shellfish processing, respectively, in the province (Yonis 2010; DFO 2014/15). Commercial fishing in the Burrard Inlet30 contributes $619,000-$!.8 million in direct economic output value, 3-9 PY of direct employment and $353,000-$! million in direct GDP to Vancouver's economy. When indirect and induced effects are considered, commercial fishing contributes $1 million-$3 million in total output value, 5-16 PY of total employment and $600,000-$!. 7 million in total GDP. 29 Average crew of 2 reported by DFO 2010, crew of 8 reported by Stuart Nelson 2007 30 Attributed to the City of Vancouver, see appendix for methodology 41 4.1.2. Port activities Shipping Port employment includes all jobs that are involved in moving goods to or through Vancouver-based Port operations, jobs that are located on Port land and off-site employment at firms that facilitate and monitor Vancouver Port trade. Direct employment includes stevedors, manufacturers and processers, shippers, insurance brokers and underwriters, tug operators, accommodation providers, ship builders, bulk terminal operators, dredgers, port authority and government workers, marina operators, freight forwarders, ship brokers skip chandlers, customs brokers and others. Total direct Port employment is made up of 78 percent on-site employment and 22 percent off-site employment (InterVISTAS 2012). Operations at the Vancouver port terminals represented approximately 35 percent of total Port Metro Vancouver activity in 2012 (InterVISTAS 2008 2012). Port operations within the city of Vancouver contribute $2,440 million in direct economic output value, 9,200 PY of direct employment and $893 million in direct GDP to Vancouver's economy. When indirect and induced effects are considered, these operations contribute $4.88 billion in total output value, 20,173 PY of total employment and $2,160 million in total GDP. Cruises The economic impact of cruise ship activity at Port Metro Vancouver has three basic sources; spending by passengers while in port, spending by the ship's crew while in port, and spending by the cruise line while in port (InterVISTAS 2012). Spending by passengers include expenditures on items such as lodging, food and beverage, retail and tours and transportation, estimated to be approximately $315.96 per passenger and amounting to $173.8 million in 2012 (InterVISTAS 2012). Vancouver welcomed 812,398 cruise ship passengers in 2013 and expects the same for 2014. Crew spending is estimated to be $102.90 per crew member and consists of the same categories as passenger spending, without lodging since crew have accommodation on the ship while at port. Total crew spending in 2012 was $16.2 million. Spending by cruise lines at port in Vancouver amounted to $416 million in 2012. Cruise line expenditures include transportation and warehousing, food and beverage to restock the ship while in port, fuel, travel agent commissions,, vessel repair and maintenance, and machinery and equipment. 42 Direct output value, employment and GDP from cruise operations in Vancouver are $547 million, 3,676 PY and $298 million respectively. When indirect and induced effects are considered, total output value, employment, and GPD from cruise operations in Vancouver are $952 million, 5,759 PY and $533 million. 4.1.3. inner Harbor transportation Commercial and sightseeing seaplane operations out of Vancouver Harbour Flight Centre generated an estimated $34 million in passenger revenues in 2013 based on CHX reported passenger volume of 282,414 fare paying passengers. The average 2013 fare for commercial flights was $124 per one way trip, while the average fare for scenic tours was $181 31 . 2013 CHX seaplane operations created 118 direct jobs and contributed $10 million to local GDP. Jobs include pilots, flight attendants, maintenance crew and administrative staff at CHX. CHX serves a large number of tourists, especially on scenic flights where tourists are estimated to comprise 95 percent of passenger volume (Personal correspondence with Harbour Air). Tourists travelling on commercial flights make-up approximately 45 percent of passengers which translates to a total contribution from tourists to industry revenues of $18 million, 62 PY of employment and $5 million in GDP per year. When indirect and induced effects are considered, floatplane transportation through CHX contributes $73 million in total output value, 300 PY of employment and $30 million in GDP. 4.1.4. Ocean-dependent tourism Ocean-dependent tourism (i.e. on-water recreation, beach and seawall usage, and attendance at/participation in ocean-based and waterfront events) in Vancouver contribute $194-$324 million in direct output value, 2,587-4,448 direct jobs and $95-$158 million in direct GDP to the city's economy. Although there were many studies examining the travel behavior and economic impact of tourism in the Metro Vancouver region and Vancouver, Coast & Mountains Region, there was no specific information on visits to the City of Vancouver. Given this limitation, this study estimates the total number of overnight visitors to the City of Vancouver based on Vancouver Visitor Centre statistics. Visitor Centre traffic statistics are based on the number of visitors who speak to a representative at each tourism BC Visitor Centre and as such, our estimates are likely conservative. 31 The average fare for scenic tours is representative of "flight only' tours and does not account for scenic flights that incorporate a secondary activity such as kayaking or whale watching. 43 On-water recreation only includes activities engaged in by overnight tourists and does not account for economic activity generated by day-visitors in Vancouver's coastal waters. It generates economic activity through direct participation in marine-based activities such as kayaking, recreational fishing, sailing, motorized boating and whale watching as well as tourists' expenditures on accommodation, transportation, food and beverage, entertainment and retail. Tourists' use of beaches, waterfront parks and the seawall captures use by both day-visitors and overnight tourists. Day-visitors contribute $148-$203 million in total output value, 1,134-1,560 PY of total employment and $102- $141 million in GDP to the Vancouver economy. Overnight tourists contribute $145-$200 million in total output value, 2,862-3,933 PY of total employment and $97-$135 million in total GDP to Vancouver's economy. Day-visitors and overnight tourists' participation/attendance at waterfront and water-based events generates $58-$82 million in total output value, 661-924 PY of total employment and $32-$46 million in total GDP. Although the current analysis did not uncover any studies which examined the economic impact of all ocean-based or waterfront event on the City of Vancouver, several studies have analyzed the economic impact of individual events in the city and comparisons with these findings suggest that our estimates are extremely conservative. A study commissioned by the Vancouver Marathon Society pegs the economic impact of the BMO Marathon at $53.6 million per year (Vancouver Marathon 2013). The Honda Celebration of Lights reports that it contributes $39 million in incremental tourism and hospitality spending to Vancouver each year (Honda Celebration of Lights web). This study suggests comparatively lower economic effects for these events, likely because we have only included day and overnight tourist participant/attendee related spending in our analysis. Overall ocean-dependent tourism (on-water activities, beaches and seawall, ocean-based and waterfront events) are the third largest contributor to output value and GDP of the ocean-dependent economy in Vancouver, after Port Metro Vancouver shipping and cruise operations. Employment generated by ocean-dependent tourism is estimated to be larger than employment generated by the cruise industry (5,171-9,126 PY and 5,759 PY, respectively). If economic activity generated by local use of the waterfront (described in section 4.1.5) is included, ocean-dependent tourism becomes the second largest contributor to ocean-dependent GDP and employment, after Port Metro Vancouver shipping operations. 44 4.1.5. Locals-Beaches and seawall The Vancouver waterfront and marine environment provides a wealth of benefits to the local population, most of which are not measured in this study. We have captured the economic effect of being a 'tourist in your own town' by examining local use of the waterfront on days off from work. Local use of the beaches, seawall and waterfront in this context, contributes $144-$170 million in total output value, 1,110-1,300 PY of total employment and $78-$92 million in GDP. 4.2. Value of the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project Based on numbers reported by Hodgson (2014) and the assumptions referenced in Section 3.2, the economic benefits of TMEP to the Vancouver economy is assumed to generate a total of $2,700 million in output value, 9,346 PYs of employment and $1,700 million in GDP to the Vancouver economy. Table 7: Present value of economic effects of TMEP within Vancouver over a 25-year period. Contribution Value ofoutput Type of Impact Employment (2013, million) (PYs) to GDP (2013. million) Direct 1,220 5,758 1,081 Direct and Indirect 2,146 7,555 1,452 Total 2,717 9,346 1,701 4.3. Economic impact of a tanker spill 4.3.1. No spill The "no spill" scenario presents a 25-year baseline for projected industry development in the absence of a tanker spill, against which to compare the potential tanker spill impacts. Under this scenario, the Vancouver economy would enjoy all of the current economic benefits of ocean-dependent activities while gaining all of the projected benefits estimated by Hodgson (2014) and TMEP (2013) associated with the proposed TMEP32. 4.3.2. Spill in May The Vancouver economy could experience large losses under a May spill scenario since approximately 50 percent of ocean-dependent economic activity occurs between May 15 and September 1 each year. Durations of potential market impacts are reported in Table 8. 32 Note: The estimated economic benefits of the proposed TMEP are not included in the baseline calculation but are treated separated and reported in Table 7 (present value over 25 years). 45 A spill of 16,000 m3 at the First Narrows could close DFO Management Area 28, sub-areas 6-14 resulting in no spot prawn or Dungeness catch by commercial fisheries during the season and reduced catch the following year. Commercial fisheries closures would reduce revenues to local fishers for the duration of any negative market and ecosystem impacts. The Vancouver shellfish processing sector is reliant on biomass from outside DFO Management Area 28, and experience increased losses due to reduced catch in other DFO Management areas that are not covered in this study. Effects on port shipping operations are assumed to be short in duration (i.e. between two and four days) based on previous spill events in other locations. The length of closure could easily exceed four days if the First Narrows were closed to facilitate spill response and clean-up, and an extended closure could have a much larger impact on the Vancouver economy than reported in this study. Impacts on port operations are assumed to affect 65 percent of daily output value. Commercial floatplane operations could also be affected more severely under a May spill scenario as impacts would be felt during the busiest quarter of annual operations. Cancelled flights and fewer passengers would result in reduced revenues over a three-month period. Impacts on the cruise ship industry, ocean-dependent tourism (on-water recreation, beaches and seawall, and ocean-based and waterfront events) and local use of the beaches, waterfront and seawall would be felt immediately in the event of a spill in May (i.e. preceding the tourist season). Lower tourism participation would result in reduced revenues generated through these activities. Based on historical spill events in other locations, duration of the recovery period for the tourism sector could be between one and five years for the cruise industry, two and eight years for ocean-dependent tourism and up to eight months for local use of the waterfront. 46 Table 8: Present value of losses to ocean-dependent activities in the City of Vancouver over a 25-year period; May spill scenario. Value of Contribution Employment Industry output (FYs) to GDP (2013, millions) (2013, millions) Commercial Fishing Direct 0.4-2.4 3-15 0.2-1.4 Direct and Indirect 0.6-3.6 4-22 0.3-2 Total 0.7-4.1 4-25 0.4-2.2 Port Activities-Shipping Direct 4-23 18-103 1-8 Direct and Indirect 8-44 37-211 3-19 Total 10-55 50-283 4-25 Port Activities-Cruises Direct 92-272 413-1,277 34-100 Direct and Indirect 177-525 843-2,605 75-223 Total 221-655 1,131-3,494 102-302 Inner harbour transportation Direct 2 9 1 Direct and Indirect 4 18 1 Total 5 23 2 Tourism-On-water recreation Direct 4-57 69-1,111 2-27 Direct and Indirect 5-83 114-1,832 4-54 Total 7-100 156-2,526 6-86 Tourism-Beaches and seawall Direct 38-151 583-2,443 18-72 Direct and Indirect 59-233 926-3,880 35-137 Total 74-294 1,228-5,146 52-205 Tourism-Waterfront events Direct 7-30 142-607 4-16 Direct and Indirect 12-47 181-773 6-26 Total 15-60 203-864 8-34 Locai-Beaches and seawall Direct 22-26 250-293 11-13 Direct and Indirect 37-43 366-429 19- 22 Total 48-57 443-519 26-31 Total losses-all industries Direct 170-563 1,487-5,857 71-238 Direct and Indirect 302-982 2,488-9,796 144-484 Total 380-1,230 3,238-12,881 201-687 47 The present value of total losses to output values resulting from a tanker spill in this scenario is estimated to be in the range of $380-$l,230 million while 3,238-12,881 PY of employment could be lost within Vancouver. The present value of lost GDP is estimated to be in the range of $201-$687 million. Notwithstanding the narrowness of the current analysis in terms of the number of ocean-related economic activities covered, these losses are large compared to the potential economic benefits of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project. 4.3.3. Spill in October Under an October spill scenario, the closure of DFO Management Area 28, sub-areas 6-14 would occur after the spot prawn and Dungeness crab harvest, resulting in slightly smaller losses of revenue than a May spill. The effects of an October spill, however, could be felt during the following year, hence there is not a substantial difference between the estimated losses under the May and October spill scenarios. Effects on shipping operations are assumed to be the same in spring and fall, with a minimum two-day closure and a maximum four-day closure, leading to an estimated reduction in output value of 65 percent per day. Commercial floatplane operations are not estimated to be affected as severely under an October scenario because commercial ridership reaches its seasonal peak during the summer. Impacts on cruises and ocean-dependent tourism (on-water recreation, beaches and seawall, and ocean-based and waterfront events) could be experienced during spring and summer of the year following an October spill event. The estimated economic impact is slightly less severe than under a May spill scenario, since the industry may not suffer lost revenues during the year of an October spill event. Local use of the beaches, waterfront and seawall may be less severely impacted under an October spill scenario and there may be no immediate economic losses because local use of the waterfront during the late fall and winter is at its seasonal low. Impacts may be relatively short in duration (e.g. eight months) and felt only in late spring of the following year. 48 Table 9: Present value of losses to ocean -dependent activities in the City of Vancouver over a 25-year period; October spill scenario. Value of Contribution Employment Industry output to GDP (PYs) (2013, millions) (2013, millions) Commercial Fishing Direct 0.4-2 2-14 0.2-1 Direct and Indirect 0.6-3 4-21 0.3-1.8 Total 0.7-3.7 4-24 0.4-2 Port Activities-Shipping Direct 4-23 18-103 1-8 Direct and Indirect 8-44 37-211 3-19 Total 10-55 50-283 4-25 Port Activities-Cruises Direct 47-223 218-1,078 17-82 Direct and Indirect 91-430 445-2,200 38-183 Total 113-537 597-2,959 52-248 Inner harbor transportation Direct 0.6 2 0.2 Direct and Indirect 1 5 0.4 Total 1.3 6 0.5 Tourism-On-water recreation Direct 2-49 32-997 0.8-23 Direct and Indirect 2-72 53-1,644 2-47 Total 3-87 73-2,266 3-75 Tourism-Beaches and seawall Direct 25-131 401-2,192 12-63 Direct and Indirect 39-203 637-3,481 23-119 Total 10-52 845-4,618 35-179 Tourism-Waterfront events Direct 5-26 98-545 3-14 Direct and Indirect 8-41 125-694 4-23 Total 10-52 139-776 6-29 Local-Beaches and seawall Direct 13-14 145-165 6-7 Direct and Indirect 21-23 213-242 11-12 Total 27-31 258-293 15-17 Total losses-all activities Direct 97-470 918-5,096 41-199 Direct and Indirect 170-818 1,518-8,496 82-405 Total 215-1,024 1,972-11,216 115-575 49 4.3.4. Spill impacts comparison: May vs. October Table 10 presents a comparison of the estimated present value of losses to ocean-dependent activities in Vancouver in the event of spill at the First Narrows in May (spring) and in October (fall) over a 25-year period. Table 10: Comparison of estimated present value economic impacts of May and October spill scenarios Value of Contribution to Wyment GDP(2013/ Losses output (2013, millions) l J millions) Total Losses-Spill in May 380-1,230 3,238-12,881 201-687 Total Losses-Spill in October 215-1,024 1,972-11,216 115-575 Difference between seasons 165-206 1,266-1,666 86-112 May losses as % of October losses 120-170 115-164 119-174 If spill size is held constant, Vancouver's five key ocean-dependent economic activities are estimated to experience greater losses in the event of a spill in May, compared to a spill in October, due to the seasonality of output value of ocean- dependent economic activities in Vancouver. Commercial fisheries (i.e. spot prawn and Dungeness crab). Inner Harbour transportation, cruises, ocean- dependent tourism (on-water recreation, beaches and seawall, ocean-based and waterfront events) and local use of the beaches, waterfront and seawall could all experience greater losses in the event of a spill in May, which would have an immediate effect on output value. 5. Discussion and conclusion The Burrard Inlet supports direct employment of approximately 18,000 people per year; a number equal to four percent of the population of Vancouver. When indirect and induced values are also considered, the Burrard Inlet provides employment for an equivalent of eight percent of the population of Vancouver. Based on unverified estimates provided by Hodgson (2014), the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project is estimated to generate a total of $2,700 million in output value, 9,346 PYs of employment and $1,700 million in GDP to the Vancouver economy. 50 In the event of a tanker spill of 16,000 m3 in May (i.e. spring), the five ocean- dependent economic activities considered within the scope of this analysis could suffer losses of $380-$l,230 million in output value, 3,238-12,881 PY of employment and $201-$687 million in GDP. When the upper ranges of the losses estimated for the five economic activities evaluated in this analysis are considered, under this scenario, 46 percent of total output value, 138 percent of employment and 40 percent of GDP from the proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) could be lost due to the spill. In the event of a spill of the same size at the same location in October (i.e. fall), the Vancouver economy could experience total losses of $215-$1,020 million in output value, 1,126-1,972 PYs of employment and $115-$575 million in GDP due to spill effects on the five ocean-dependent economic activities evaluated in this analysis. Here, the percentages of the projected benefits from the TMEP that could be lost due to a spill are 38 percent of total output value, 120 percent of total employment and 34 percent of GDP, respectively. The high employment losses estimated (i.e. 138% and 120%) result from impacts to sectors that generate high employment per unit output value, which is typical of the tourism and events sectors. These activities account for a substantial portion of the ocean-dependent economy in Vancouver. It is worth noting that the above projected percentage losses account for only a portion of the total economic impact to the city of Vancouver due to a spill since this analysis focused only on five ocean-dependent economic activities and does not encompass the costs of spill clean-up and litigation or the value of spilled product. These costs will vary with spill conditions, volume and location, among other factors, but would impose considerable expenses on the project proponent; local, provincial and federal governments; industry groups; local businesses; and local communities. The estimates presented for the three scenarios within this analysis (i.e. no impact, spill in May, spill in October) provide a range (i.e. positive to negative) of potential economic impacts of TMEP on the value of ocean-dependent activities within the City of Vancouver. The likelihood of each potential release scenario has not been estimated within the scope of this analysis. Estimates of likelihood could be determined for each scenario through a formal risk assessment to provide additional characterization of spill scenarios. This study focused on impacts to ocean-dependent economic activities within the City of Vancouver; however, several other communities are also located in proximity to the Burrard Inlet and would be impacted by a tanker spill. This includes the Tsleil-Waututh, Musqueam and Squamish First Nations peoples who depend on the Burrard Inlet for food as well as social and ceremonial purposes. 51 The value of socio-economic impacts to local residents whose employment is not linked to the Burrard Inlet has also been largely ignored in this study, including impacts on human health, real property values, community cohesion, local non- tourism businesses and general well-being of the residents in the City of Vancouver. For example, survey data from the City of Vancouver shows that more than five million people use Vancouver's shorelines during the year, of which 23 percent are engaging in exercise (Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014). Approximately 16,000 local residents use the shoreline an average of 19 days per month for exercise and deem the waterfront to be Very important' to their decision to exercise (Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014). The health benefits of physical activity are well documented (Warburton et al. 2006; Haskell et al. 2007) and inactivity is estimated to account for approximately 2.5 percent of Canadian health care costs (Birmingham 1999; Katzmarzyk et al. 2000; Oldridge 2008). The Canadian Society for Exercise Physiology (CSEP 2011) estimates that at least 150 minutes of moderate- to vigorous-intensity activity per week is necessary to produce health benefits. The health benefits of park usage have been measured in terms of reduced health care costs (Bedimo-Rung et al. 2005; Bauman et al. 2008; The Trust for Public Land 2011), increased workplace productivity and reduced employee absenteeism (Shepard 1992; Cadilhac et al. 2011). If it is assumed that the average person in Vancouver costs the Canadian medical system $5,775 per year (CIHI 2013), then these individuals would be expected to incur $93 million in health care expenses each year. However, by enabling 16,000 individuals to perform physical activity three or more times per week, Vancouver's beaches, Seawall and grassy areas reduce these costs by an estimated $2 million per year. These values may be at risk if residents cease to use Vancouver's coastal areas for exercise in the event of a tanker spill. Further, health care costs associated with exposure to spilled hydrocarbons and fumes could compound health care costs. The values presented in the study provide a very conservative first estimate of total output value, employment and contribution to GDP resulting from five ocean-dependent economic activities in the City of Vancouver. Analysis of the present values of existing ocean-dependent economic activities in the future was conducted using historical growth rates and does not address potential future growth in existing or new ocean-dependent activities. 52 As noted in Sumaila et al. (2012) and Hotte & Sumaila (2012; 2013), the input- output analysis method employed in this study has been subject to criticism. Christ (1955), Grady & Muller (1988) and de Mesnard (2002) conclude that the use of multipliers overlooks the effects of changing prices on impacts, fails to address aggregate interactions and assumes stability of technical coefficients over time and across industries. The methods used in this study assume constant prices and do not address potential impacts of a tanker spill on ex-vessel prices received by commercial fishers or the average daily value of tourism expenditures. Price decreases resulting from diminished product quality (e.g. seafood, tourism experience) could lead to additional economic impacts to the local economy in the event of a tanker spill. This study's narrow focus on five key ocean-dependent economic activities in the City of Vancouver only addresses a small portion of the total economic impacts of the proposed project and the potential impact of a tanker spill. Investigation of impacts to additional values, including those related to social, cultural and ecological values to residents and non-residents, would provide a more complete estimate of the total potential economic impact of a spill. While this analysis focused on the benefits of the TMEP relative to the potential economic costs of a tanker spill at the local level, the broader distribution of costs and benefits is not addressed herein. According to a study by Goodman & Rowan (2014), conducted in collaboration with The Centre for Public Policy Research at Simon Eraser University, BC will receive less than two percent of the total revenue generated by the Trans Mountain Expansion Project over its lifespan. In comparison, the oil and gas industry will retain 68 percent of total revenue and Alberta and other provinces will receive 31 percent in the form of royalties, corporate income taxes and transfer payments. Thus, it is projected that the citizens of Metro Vancouver will bear a disproportionate share of the risk of a spill relative to project benefits. 53 References Aldy, J.E. (2013) The Labor Market Impacts of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Oil Drilling Moratorium. 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Statistical and Economic Analysis Series Publication No. 1-4. Department ofFisheries and Oceans Canada. 68 Appendix I: Analytical methods A.l Commercial fishing Each of the indicators (i.e., total output value "x," employment "y," GDP "z") is assumed to be related to total commercial catch (C) as follows (Sumaila et. al 2012): x = C - p y = x- Mfd4iidii Z = X ' d,iii,dii where p is the ex-vessel price per tonne and Mfd,di(dii and M^d.di.dii represent the economic impact multipliers for direct, direct and indirect, and direct, indirect and induced employment and GDP, respectively, for fishing, hunting and trap (Statistics Canada 2010). Provincial multipliers are used to estimate direct impacts; National multipliers are used for indirect and induced impacts. Landed (ex-vessel) weight and value data for spot prawns and Dungeness crab, two commercial fisheries that are active in DFO Management Area 28, were obtained from DFO for 2000-2013 (Martin Huang, pers. comm., May 23, 2014 and June 10, 2014). In sub-areas where fewer than three commercial fishing vessels are active in a given year, catch cannot be disclosed by DFO as per the "three-party rule." In these cases, data were aggregated for Burrard Inlet (Area 28, sub-areas 7-14). Catch attributed to the City of Vancouver was estimated based on the mapped area of those sub-areas (i.e. 7, 8, 9 and 10) that are adjacent to the shoreline of Vancouver as a proportion of the total mapped area of Burrard Inlet; this method assumes even distribution of catch across Burrard Inlet. Thus, the value of half of the catch from sub-areas 7, 9 and 10 and all of the catch from sub-area 8 is allocated to the City of Vancouver for this analysis. Low and high estimates of annual landed values were estimated based on average values from the lowest and highest six years of data. All annual landed values were adjusted to 2013 CAD using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for British Columbia (Statistics Canada 2014). Employment figures, as well as indirect and induced economic impacts of the commercial fishing sector, were estimated using input-output multipliers for fishing, hunting and trapping33 (Statistics Canada for British Columbia (direct, direct and indirect effects) and Canada (direct, indirect and induced effects). 33 Statistics Canada fishing, hunting and trapping provincial multiplier BS1 14000. 69 A.2 Port activities A.2.1 Shipping Direct, indirect and induced output value, employment and GDP attributed to Port Metro Vancouver, including associated Canadian rail and trucking activity, were reported by InterVISTAS (2008, 2012). These studies provide a breakdown of direct employment from Port operations, by location, for 16 Metro Vancouver municipalities. Total economic activity associated with the Port within the City of Vancouver was estimated as proportion of total Port operations (i.e. an estimated 35% of total economic activity). Economic output value at Port Metro Vancouver attributed to the City of Vancouver and Statistics Canada multipliers for water transportation34 were used to estimate the direct, indirect and induced output value, employment and GDP for Vancouver-based Port operations (excluding cruise ship activity). The 2013 baseline was estimated by adjusting 2011 economic output value (InterVISTAS 2012) to 2013 dollars. The growth rate of economic activity at Port Metro Vancouver was estimated using the annual change in total cargo volume from 2007-2013. The overall trend for Port Metro Vancouver offers a more conservative estimate than that of container and bulk cargo attributed only to the seven port terminals located within Vancouver. Economic activity attributed to the cruise industry was subtracted from the total economic activity reported by InterVISTAS (2008, 2012). The contribution of the cruise industry to output value, employment and GDP in the City of Vancouver is reported separately. A.2.2 Cruises InterVISTAS (2008, 2012) reports economic impacts of cruise activities at the provincial level and does not provide a municipal breakdown of direct economic impacts for cruise operations. InterVISTAS (2008, 2012) derived estimates of direct employment in the cruise industry from a cruise sector model developed by Business Research and Economic Advisors (BREA) and adjusted the results for 2011 using Vancouver passenger revenue data. 34 Statistics Canada water transportation provincial multiplier BS1 14000 70 Since all of Port Metro Vancouver's cruise ship facilities are located in downtown Vancouver, all direct economic activity relating to cruise ship activity and operations is assumed to occur within the City of Vancouver. Because cruise ship passenger traffic increased by 22 percent from 2011 to 2013 (Port Metro Vancouver Cruise Ship Statistics), simply updating the 2011 economic impacts to 2013 dollars would have underestimated the baseline for the analysis. Therefore, the baseline for cruise activity in 2013 was calculated by adjusting total 2011 economic output value, reported by InterVISTAS Consulting (2008, 2012), to 2013 dollars and converting this output value to a dollar value per passenger per passenger for 2011. Dollar value per passenger was then multiplied by the number of passengers in 2013 to provide a baseline for the analysis. Statistics Canada water transportation multipliers35 were used to calculate direct, indirect and induced output value, employment and GDP (Statistics Canada). The growth rate of the cruise industry was estimated using average annual passengers from 2003 to 2013. The 10-year annual passenger average was 99 percent of 2013 passengers which indicates the industry is experiencing a growth rate near or close to zero over the long term. An annual growth rate of approximately 0 percent indicates that the industry remains stable but is not demonstrating signs of growth. A.3 Inner Harbour transportation Given the difficulty of obtaining detailed financial information for floatplane operations, industry revenues are used as a proxy for economic output value fx") and have been estimated using the following formula: x = F -p where F represents annual number of passengers at Vancouver Harbour Flight Centre (CHX) and p represents the average commercial fare for flights departing CHX. Data was collected for 2013. The average commercial fare, weighted for flight frequency, is $124. Sightseeing passenger volumes were calculated using monthly passenger data from 2013 provided by Harbour Air (Stefani Isted, pers. comm., June 24 2014 and June 27 2014) for sightseeing passengers out of CHX and the average price of a sightseeing fare is $181.. Sightseeing packages that incorporate non-flight related activities such as kayaking and whale watching were excluded. 35 Statistics Canada water transportation provincial multiplier BS1 14000 71 Direct, indirect and induced employment "y" and GDP "z" are assumed to be related to total industry output value fx") as follows: y = x • MadiidU z = x-Ma2 di.dii where MVdu and Ma2di(dii represent Statistics Canada multipliers for direct indirect, and direct, indirect and induced economic impacts of air transportation 36 (Statistics Canada 2010). Multipliers for direct effects on Provincial employment and GDP were not available for air transportation; however, combined direct, indirect and induced direct effects across all provinces are reported. The contribution of tourism to commercial floatplane operations was calculated using the 2008 Vancouver Island Visitor Exit Survey (Tourism Vancouver Island 2008), which reported the proportion of tourists that arrived and departed Vancouver Island via float plane. No similar exit survey exists for Metro Vancouver; however, most commercial floatplane flights operate from Vancouver to Vancouver Island. Therefore, data from the Vancouver Island Exit survey are assumed to reflect the behavior of tourists using floatplane services to and from Downtown Vancouver. The survey reports that 2 percent of tourists arrive on Vancouver Island via floatplane, while 1.5 percent of tourists depart Vancouver Island via floatplane. The growth rate of CHX floatplane transportation was estimated using commercial air transportation annual passenger volumes from 2010-2014, reported by Transportation Canada (Transportation in Canada Reports 2010 2014). Multi-year passenger data for CHX was not available. A.4 Ocean-dependent tourism This study estimates the economic contribution of the ocean environment to tourism revenues in Vancouver. Tourism revenues have been calculated for the following categories: on-water activities, beaches and seawall, water-based and waterfront events. 36 Statistics Canada air transportation provincial multiplier BS481000 72 Since tourism affects multiple sectors (e.g. local transportation, retail, hospitality), goods (e.g. souvenirs, clothing, electronics), and service providers (e.g. arts, airlines, tour companies), total output value is most easily and accurately estimated using average daily per capita tourism expenditure. This approach eliminates the need to evaluate the relative contributions of non-resident tourists and local residents to each business or sector individually. For this study, tourists are defined as either overnight-visitors or day-visitors. Overnight visitor daily per capita expenditure was derived from Vancouver Overnight Visitor Profile data (Tourism Vancouver). Average daily expenditures from 2008-2011 were adjusted to 2013 Canadian dollars using the CPI to provide a baseline annual estimate for 2013. Average day-visitor expenditure was obtained from the 2010 Travel Survey of Residents of Canada, analyzed by Destination British Columbia (2011), adjusted to 2013 Canadian dollars using the CPI. This estimate is consistent with daily expenditure estimates for Non- Motorized Outdoor Recreation in BC (SFU School of Resource Management 2012). The exceptions are average daily expenditures overnight visitors participating in on-water activities, which were obtained from the 2012 SFU FMCBC study for multi-day water activities (p.38) rather than the Destination BC spending estimates. The growth rate for tourism in Vancouver is assumed to be the same as the growth rate for tourism in Metro Vancouver and was estimated using overnight visitor data from Tourism Vancouver for the Metro Vancouver region for the years 2003-2012. A.4.1. On-water activities Economic output value "x". Employment "y" and GDP "z" are assumed to be related to average daily tourist expenditure (E) as follows: x = E-(n-r)-ci y = x- MmddiAii z = x ' M™2 a di an where n represents the total average number of tourists per year, r represents the percentage of tourists whose primary travel motivation is marine recreation, d represents the average length of stay. Mmd,di,dii and Mm2d,di(dii represent economic impact multipliers for direct, direct and indirect, and direct, indirect and induced employment and GDP, respectively. Statistics Canada does not report multipliers for tourism activities; therefore, multipliers for marine tourism were based on those developed by Hotte and Sumaila (2012) for marine recreation in British Columbia, derived using a ratio of client expenditure to employment and GDP and based on data reported by Tourism BC (2004). 73 The average number of visitors to the City of Vancouver ("n") was estimated using Vancouver Visitor Centre statistics for 2004-2013 (Tourism BC 2014), 1 adjusted to account for the ratio of tourists who use visitor information centers (23%) to those who do not use visitor centers (77%) as reported in the Travel Activities and Motivations of Canadian Residents Survey (2007). It is assumed that tourists visiting large cities, such as Vancouver, are less likely to use tourist information centers less than tourists visiting smaller cities due to the availability of comprehensive online tourism resources to assist tourists with trip planning, as well as extensive concierge services at hotels. Therefore, the baseline estimate of the total number of tourists to the city of Vancouver is believed to be conservative. This study does not estimate the economic contribution of day- visitor participation in marine recreation and thus, the economic impact of marine recreation is likely underestimated. Low and high rates for marine recreation as a primary travel motivation ("r") in Vancouver are three percent (low) and 14 percent (high). The low estimate is from the 2008 Vancouver Island Visitor Exit Survey Report (Tourism Vancouver Island 2008) and reflects the percentage of tourists whose primary travel motivation was listed as marine activities. The high estimate for travel motivation was calculated by aggregating travel motivation categories in Destination BC's Travel Activities and Motivation Survey (2007). Sunbathing/sitting on a beach and swimming in the ocean are not included in Destination BC (2007) and are considered separately (see Section A4.3). The importance of marine recreation as a primary travel motivation is assumed to remain constant over time for this analysis. Increased participation in marine recreation activities is assumed to be due to the growth of regional tourism and equal to the tourism growth rate. A.4.2. Waterfront events Economic output value "x", employment "y" and GDP "z" are assumed to be related to average daily tourist expenditures for day visitors (Ei) and overnight visitors (E2), respectively, as follows: x — £l,2 " (nl,2 " '1,2) " dl,2 y = x- Meddidii 2 z — x ' Me2 d,dii,dii where n represents the total average number of tourists (spectators and participants) for all waterfront events, r represents the percentage of tourists whose primary travel motivation was to attend or participate in a waterfront or water-based event (low estimate), or the percentage of tourists who participated in or attended a waterfront or water-based event (high estimate), and d represents the average length of stay (assumed to be one day for all events). 74 Med,di,dii and Me2dJdiIdii represent Statistics Canada economic impact multipliers for direct, direct and indirect, and direct, indirect and induced employment and GDP, respectively, associated with performing arts, spectator sports and related industries and heritage institutions37. These multipliers do not capture the indirect and induced effect of tourists spending on accommodation services. The primary input to economic impact assessments for events is the economic activity generated by direct expenditure from external sources relating to an event. This effect can be broken down into two revenue streams: contributions from event organizers and contributions from visitors (i.e. participants, event officials, media and spectators)1 (Ramchandani 2012). Due to data constraints, the economic contribution of event officials and media were excluded from this analysis; only direct expenditures of visiting participants and visiting spectators are included. The relative composition of participants and spectators at events was assigned to one of three categories, based on the type of event: i) Vancouver residents; ii) Metro Vancouver residents (i.e. day-visitors); and iii) visitors from outside Metro Vancouver (i.e. overnight-visitors). Annual events that occur on or near the waterfront were assigned to one of the following four categories: i) water-based; ii) run/triathlon; iii) sports/fundraising; and iv) community/arts. For events with paid entry (e.g. running races. Dragon Boat regattas, volleyball tournaments), one of two methods was employed to calculate participant composition: either race organizers provided a composition breakdown for paid participants based on their records; or the researchers categorized participants and spectators using composition data from online race results and associated registration information. From this information, participants were observed to account for a relatively smaller portion of total attendees. Spectator attendance was estimated using a ratio of participants to spectators derived from surveys collected by the City of Vancouver during summer 2014 (Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014). Attendance by residents, day-visitors and overnight visitors, respectively, including both participants and spectators, at events without paid entry was also estimated using survey data collected by the City of Vancouver (Vancouver Waterfront Survey 2014) for water-based events, sport/fundraising events and community/arts events. 37 Statistics Canada performing arts, spectator sports and related industries and heritage institutions provincial multiplier BS71A00 75 The low estimate includes only spending by day visitors and overnight visitors whose primary travel motivation was attendance or participation in a waterfront or water-based event. The high estimate includes spending by day-visitors and overnight-visitors whose primary travel motivation was something other than a water-based or waterfront event, but who also attended a water-based or waterfront event. Tourism participation rates for waterfront events are assumed to remain constant over time; increased participation and attendance are assumed to be driven by growth in regional tourism and, therefore, equal to the tourism growth rate. A.5 Beach and seawall usage Annual beach usage was estimated using data for the years 2007-2013 from the City of Vancouver's lifeguard counts for all major city beaches (Spanish Banks, Spanish Banks Extension, Locarno, Jericho, Kits, Sunrise, Sunset, 1st, 2nd and 3rd) for the summer season (i.e., from the May Long Weekend to Labour Day Long Weekend, plus or minus several weeks). Since lifeguard counts only provide an estimate of the number of beach users, this data was combined with survey data from the City of Vancouver's Waterfront Usage Survey (2014) to generate an estimate of waterfront park users. City of Vancouver survey data provided separate counts for beach and grass users taken during July 2014, which supported determination of a ratio of beach users to grass users. This ratio was applied to the lifeguard count to estimate total waterfront usage. Ratios are assumed to remain constant throughout the year. Summer (i.e. high season) seawall usage was calculated using average daily seawall user (or "head") counts from 2003, 2004 and 2005, obtained from raw data from the City of Vancouver's Seawall Historic Head Counts. To avoid double counting, user counts by location were grouped into five sub-areas (i.e. Jericho/Spanish Banks, Kits Beach/Kits Point, Granville Island/Creekside, Yaletown/Downtown, English Bay/Stanley Park). The average daily number of users was multiplied by the average number of days of the summer season to generate a low (i.e., summer only) estimate of annual seawall usage. Due to data constraints, annual usage does not include usage outside of the peak period and is therefore an underestimate of total seawall usage. This estimate of annual summer beach and seawall usage is consistent with an estimate used by the Vancouver Board of Parks and Recreation (Sean Healy, pers. comm., June 17 2014). Using data from the Vancouver Waterfront Survey (2014), a ratio of residents to day-visitors to overnight visitors at the waterfront was estimated for this analysis. A confidence interval was used to provide low and high estimates for baseline waterfront usage in all categories (i.e. residents, day-visitors and overnight- visitors). 76 Users were then grouped into two categories: those who spent three or fewer hours at the waterfront, and those who spent a half day or more at the waterfront. For the first category 33 percent of total daily expenditures were considered waterfront related, and in the second 66 percent of total daily expenditures were considered waterfront-related. Average day-visitor and local resident expenditure was obtained from Destination BC (2010). Average overnight visitor spending was calculated from Tourism Vancouver's overnight visitor profile (Tourism Vancouver 2008-2011). Growth for overnight and day-visitors was calculated as the tourism growth rate (Tourism Vancouver 2003-2012), and this assumes that the usage of the waterfront by tourists will remain constant overtime. Growth for local residents was calculated as the population growth in Metro Vancouver from 2006-2011 (Statistics Canada 2011) Economic output value "x", employment "y" and GDP V are assumed to be related to average daily tourist expenditures for day-visitors (E3) and overnight- visitors (E4) and locals (E5) to the Vancouver waterfront as follows: x — (.Ed,o,l ' si,2) ' (nd,o,l) y = x • Mbdidiidii 2 z = x- Mb2 d,di,dii where Ed,0,1 represents average daily expenditure for day-visitors, overnight- visitors, and local residents, Si,2 represents the percentage of average daily expenditure related to waterfront activity based (33% or 66%), rid,0,1 represents the total annual average number of day-visitors, overnight visitors and locals to waterfront parks, seawall and beaches respectively. For day-visitors and local residents, Mbd(di,dii and MbZd,di(dii represent Statistics Canada economic impact multipliers for employment and GDP, respectively, associated with Performing arts, spectator sports and related industries and heritage institutions38 (Statistics Canada 2010) . Since these multipliers do not capture the indirect and induced effects of tourist spending on accommodations and other services provided to overnight visitors, the multipliers for marine tourism (Mmd,di,dii and Mm2d,di(dii) from Hotte and Sumaila (2012) are applied to revenues from overnight-tourists. 38 Statistics Canada performing arts, spectator sports and related industries and heritage institutions provincial multiplier BS71A00 77 Appendix II: List of water-based and waterfront events in Vancouver Ocean Based Events Location Date (2013) Polar Bear Swim English Bay 01-Jan Heads Up The Creek Vanier Boat Launch 10-Mar Junior & Sprint Regatta Creekside Park 04-May Dragon Zone Spring Sprint Creekside Park 05-May FCRCC Spring Regatta Athlete Village Day Sails In Support of Local Charities Harbour Green Dock 08-13 May FCRCC Knockout Regatta Creekside Park 11-May Dragon Zone Spring Sprint Crrekside Park 12-May False Creek Women's Regatta Creekside Park 25-May Dragon Zone 500 Metre Regatta Creekside Park 07-09 Jun Variety Boat for Hope 12-Jun Rio Tinto Alcan Dragon Boat Festival Creekside Park 20-24 Jun July 1st Crab Festival Portside Park 01-Jul Paddlefest 2012 Jericho Sailing Centre 06-Jul Easter Seals Waves Regatta Hastings Mill Park 12-Jul Celebration of Light Stanley Park 27 Jul-3 Aug Jericho Stand Up Paddle Board Races Jericho Park 24-Aug Kayak for a Cure Jericho West Field 25-Aug Day of the Longboat Jericho Sailing Centre 21-29 Sep HMCS Oriole Charity Day Sails Harbour Green Dock 08-15 Oct Beach Events Location Date (2013) Vancouver Open Kitsilano Park 11-14 Jul Soccer Express / Umbro Beach Soccer BlasSpanish Banks Park 09-11 Aug KitsFest Kitsilano Park 08-12 Aug Beach Volleyball National Championships Spanish Banks 20-26 Aug Sandcastle Competition Spanish Bank West 26-Jul 78 Running EventsyTriathlons Location Date (2013) First Half Half Marathon Roundhouse Turntable Plaza 10-Feb Vancouver Sun Run Stanley Park Seawall April BMO Vancouver Marathon Stanley Park 04-05 May Scotiabank Vancouver Half Marathon Spanish Banks 22-23 Jun Lululemon Sea Wheeze Half Marathon Stanley Park Seawall 10-Aug Rock'n'Roll Half Marathon Stanley Park Seawall 26-Oct Vancouver Historic Half Stanley Park Seawall 24-Nov Subaru Vancouver Triathlon Locarno Trails 81 Park 12-Jul Ceperley Park 02-03 Sep Vancouver Triathlon Lumberman's Arch 24-Mar Spring Run Off 8km False Creek Seawall 14-Oct Granville Island Turkey Trot 26-27 Oct James Cunningham Seawall Race Ceperley Park 02-Nov Energizer Night Race Ceperley Picnic Site Fundraisers/Walks/Community Location Date (2013) World Partnership Walk Lumberman's Arch 25-26 May PMC Sierra Science Fair Sun Run Seawall 25-May Walk with the Dragon Lumberman's Arch 20-21 Jul Underwear Affair Seawall 05-Jul Paws for a Cause Lumberman's Arch 07-08 Sep Scotiabank AIDS Walk for Life Sunset Beach 21-22 Sep BC Walk Now for Autism Speaks Lumberman's Arch 28-29 Sep Cad Breast Cancer Run for the Cure 05-Oct Arts and Music Festivals Location Date (2013) Bard on the Beach Vanier Park 15 Jun-05 Sept Vancouver Folk Music Festival Jericho Beach Park 18-20 Jul 79 APPENDIX C TO THE WRITTEN EVIDENCE OF RASHID SUMAILA CV of Ngaio Hotte Ngaio Hotte, MFRE, P.Biol, EPt Resource Economist, University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC • (778) 867-7894 • ngaiohottegihotmail.com EDUCATION • MFRE (Master of Food and Resource Economics), University of British Columbia 2011 • Post-Graduate Diploma, Environmental Engineering Applications, Conestoga College 2006 • B.Sc., Biological Science (Minor Psychology), University of Guelph 2005 EXPERIENCE Research experience Resource Economist 2011 - present Dept. of Forest Resources Management, UBC Forestry (Vancouver, BC) Provide research support, project coordination and facilitation. • Assess potential economic instruments to motivate adaptation to climate change in forestry using interviews with provincial government representatives and licensees and case study research. • Estimate economic benefits of emerging DNA-based pathogen detection technology (TAIGA). • Study the interactive effects of climate change on forests, hydrology and communities (e.g. San Jose Watershed), conduct interviews with local stakeholders and coordinate multi-stakeholder workshops. Resource Economist 2011 - 2013 Fisheries Economics Research Unit, UBC Fisheries Centre (Vancouver, BC) • Study interactions between indicators of nations' ecological and economic health, economic impacts of oil and bitumen spills and potential buyback program design for the Atlantic sealing industry. • Developed and maintain the feru.org website and launched the "Talking Fish" research blog. • Coordinate and facilitate meetings and workshops (e.g. strategic planning), develop and track budgets, develop research proposals and manage projects, research staff and interns. Researcher, Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) project 2011 - 2012 Adaptation to Climate Change Team, SFU (Vancouver, BC) Worked with an inter-disciplinary team to develop a policy framework for adaptation of BC's agricultural sector to climate change. Aspects included governance structures, policies, crop insurance and other programs. • Identified sector-specific risks and opportunities to agriculture associated with climate change in BC. • Explored economic analysis of costs and benefits associated with adaptation. • Investigated case studies of successful adaptation. Facilitation experience • St6:lo Service Agency annual planning session March 2015 • Ts'elxweyeqw Tribe Management Ltd. business planning session January 2015 • Peter Wall Institute International Roundtable, December 2014 Donning the Regalia: maintaining tradition in an age of modernity • Workshop II, Economic Instruments for Adaptation to Climate Change in Forestry December 2014 • Peter Wall Institute International Roundtable, May 2014 Spaceship Earth: meeting challenges for living on the blue planet under siege • St6:lo Service Agency strategic planning session March 2014 Ngaio Hotte Vancouver, BC Facilitation experience (continued) • Workshop I, Economic Instruments for Adaptation to Climate Change in Forestry February 2014 • Ts'elxweyeqw Tribe Management Ltd. strategic planning session January 2014 • Aboriginal Business Collaboration in Forestry research partnership November 2013 strategic planning session • OceanCanada research partnership strategic planning session August 2013 Teaching experience Professor's Assistant 2011 - present MFRE Program, UBC Land and Food Systems (Vancouver, BC) • Provide support for FRE 540: International Resource Economics and Development, including lectures on case studies and applied skills for the workforce and support to students during term projects. Research Assistant May - November 2011 UBC Community Learning Initiative (Vancouver, BC) • Developed a business plan for a network of community gardens (the YWCA HarvestShare Network) based on the model of the existing YWCA Rooftop Food Garden. • Supported students from a variety of disciplines (e.g. Marketing, Commerce, Education) to design and complete applied projects in partnership with the YWCA Rooftop Food Garden. Interpretive Raft Guide April - June 2008 Beyond Books Institute, RiverWatch Science Program (Calgary, AB) • Guided groups of high school students on educational rafting tours along the Bow River. • Facilitated group discussions about human interactions with the River (e.g. impacts on water quality and availability, water conservation). • Provided instruction about simple environmental chemistry experiments (e.g. turbidity, acidity, invertebrate indicators of water quality) and assistance to students during experiments. Professional experience Researcher & Technical Analyst 2008 - 2010 Corporate Consulting Services, The Pembina Institute (Calgary, AB) Conducted research, surveyed stakeholders and compiled technical and non-technical reports in the areas of sustainability and renewable energy. Studied the value of ecosystem services from wetlands, environmental externalities of Alberta's agriculture and forestry sectors and applications of geoexchange and wood biomass energy systems. Co-facilitated delivery of "Sustainability 101" training sessions for corporate clients and employees based on a triple bottom-line approach to sustainability. Received training for media relations, writing style and grammar and writing opinion-editorials. Developed project proposals, managed projects and staff and tracked budgets. Ngaio Hotte Vancouver, BC Professional experience (continued) Project Scientist 2006 - 2008 Environmental Management Group, Alpine Environmental Ltd. (Calgary, AB) Provided environmental consulting services for the energy sector in western Canada. • Conducted environmental assessments, wildlife assessments, pre-construction site assessments and well site audits in accordance with applicable provincial and federal legislation and guidelines. • Developed a company-wide Phase I Environmental Site Assessment program, including operating procedures, information sources and a project checklist, and performed assessments. • Developed project proposals and managed field staff and budgets. • Developed and updated provincial Species at Risk Handbooks for private and public users. • Delivered the Mission Possible @ Work Traffic Safety and Driving at Work program. COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT • Coordinator, Western Forest Economists 2015 Meeting 2015 • Found/ngPres/denf, Vancouver Urban Farming Society 2012-2014 • Member, Canadian Environmental Network, Agriculture Caucus Steering Committee 2009 - 2011 • Vice Chair, Calgary Food Policy Council 2010 • Organizer, Earth Day Extravaganza 2008 AWARDS & DISTINCTIONS • Four-Year Fellowship, University of British Columbia 2015-2019 • Selected participant and panelist, Leading Change Canada, Emerging Leaders Forum 2014 • Eco-Scholarship, University of Guelph 2005 PUBLICATIONS Refereed • Sumaila, U.R., Hotte, N., Galli, A., Lam, V.W.Y., Cisneros Montemayor, A.M. and Wackernagel, M. (submitted) Eco2: An index of economic-ecological deficits. Marine Ecological Progress Series. • Sumaila, U.R., Teh, L. and Hotte, N. (submitted) Can fisheries buybacks help ease socio-economic impacts during adjustments to rebuild fishery resources? North American Journal of Fisheries Management. • Hotte, N. &. Sumaila, R. (2014) How much could a tanker spill cost British Columbians? Environment, Development and Sustainability 16(1): 159-180. • Miller, D., Hotte, N. and Sumaila, U.R. (2014) Mandating responsible flagging practices as a strategy for reducing the risk of coastal oil spills. Marine pollution bulletin 81(1): 24-26. Book chapters • Nelson, H., Hotte, N. and Kozak, R.A. (submitted) The changing socio-economic contributions of forestry. In: Innes, J. Sustainable Forest Management: From Principles to Practice. Earthscan, Oxford. • Ngaio Hotte Vancouver, BC Reports • Nelson, H. and Hotte, N. (2013) Tired Iron: The State of the Harvesting Sector on the BC Coast. 34 pp. • O'Riordan, J., Karlsen, E., Sandford, B., Newman, L, Hotte, N., Martens, L, Strand, M. and McNamara, K. (2013) Briefing paper for decision-makers: Climate Change Adaptation and Canada's Crops and Food Supply. Adaptation to Climate Change Team, 17 pp. • O'Riordan, J., Karlsen, E., Sandford, B., Newman, L, Hotte, N., Martens, L, Strand, M. and McNamara, K. (2013) Summary Report: Climate Change Adaptation and Canada's Crops and Food Supply. Adaptation to Climate Change Team, 33 pp. • O'Riordan, J., Karlsen, E., Sandford, B., Newman, L, Hotte, N., Martens, L, Strand, M. and McNamara, K. (2013) Background Report: Climate Change Adaptation and Canada's Crops and Food Supply. Adaptation to Climate Change Team, 124 pp. • Hotte, N. and Sumaila, U.R. (2012) Potential economic impact of a tanker spill on ocean-based industries in British Columbia. Fisheries Centre Research Reports 20(7), 45 pp. • Nelson, H., Day, K., Cohen, S., Moore, D. and Hotte, N. (2012) Adapting to climate change in the San Jose Watershed. 128 pp. • Lovekin, D. and Hotte, N. (2011) Geoexchange (Fact Sheet). The Pembina Institute, 4 pp. • Hotte, N., Kennedy, M. and Lantz, V. (2009) Valuing wetlands in Southern Ontario's Credit River Watershed. The Pembina Institute and Credit Valley Conservation, 39 pp. Popular articles • Hotte, N. (Fall 2014) "Nudging the forest industry toward climate change adaptation," Branchlines 25(3): 20-21. • Hotte, N. and Nelson, H. (May 27, 2014) "Opinion: Volume vs. area." Vancouver Sun. • Hotte, N., Miller, D. and Sumaila, R. (March 24, 2014) "25 years after Exxon Valdez: Raising the flag for tanker safety," UBC News. • Nelson, H. and Hotte, N. (December 4, 2013) "Failure to add value to resource wealth chains Canada to its colonial past." The Globe and Mail. • Hotte, N. and Sumaila, R. (December 2, 2013) "The commercial seal hunt is showing signs that the end is near." Vancouver Sun. • Hotte, N. (May 13, 2013) "Does 'local' matter? It does to Canada's farmers," The Vancouver Observer. • Hotte, N. and Sumaila, R. (March 21, 2012) "Fish habitat: Why rock the boat?" The Globe and Mail. • [no author] (2012) "Navigating a path through climate change," Branchlines 23(2): 12-13. • Hotte, N. (Spring 2012) "The Economic Value of a Rooftop Community Garden," FarmFolk CityFolk Magazine. • Hotte, N. (Spring 2011) "Relax. Honey: Catching up with Vikram Vii and Meeru Dhalwala," Edible Vancouver Magazine. MEDIA • Smith, S. (March 20, 2014) "Northern Gateway could be B.C.'s Exxon Valdez. experts warn," Metro News. • Squire, J. P. (February 28, 2014) "Pipeline panel readies for Kelowna stop," Kelowna Daily Courier. • Phys.org (December 12, 2012) "Single spill could wipe out economic gains from Northern Gateway, researchers warn." Phys.org. • Moore, D. (December 13, 2012) "Cost of worst-case scenario outweighs rewards: study," Trail Daily Times. Ngaio Hotte Vancouver, BC Media (continued) • Moore, D. (December 12, 2012) "Tanker spill could wipe out Northern Gateway rewards: UBC study," The Canadian Press. • Moore, D. (December 12, 2012) "Cost of B.C. oil spill could outweigh Northern Gateway gains: WWF Study." The Toronto Star. • Moore, D. (December 12, 2012) "Northern Gateway: UBC Study Suggests Cost Of Worst-Case Spill Outweighs Rewards." Huffington Post British Columbia. • OMNI TV News (December 12, 2012) Interviewed about the potential economic impact of a tanker spill from the Enbridge Northern Gateway project. • CBC News (December 12, 2012) "West Coast oil tanker spill clean-up could cost $9.6B." CSC News. PRESENTATIONS • Economic benefits component of "The Social and Economic Values of Canada's Urban Forests: A National Synthesis," Natural Resources Canada videoconference, March 27, 2015. • Case study presenter. Workshop II, Economic Instruments for Adaptation to Climate Change in Forestry, November 19, 2014 • Panelist, Globe 2014 pre-panel session. Leading Change Canada conference, March 25, 2014, Vancouver, BC. • Guest speaker, "Economic risks associated to the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway project," SCIE 220: Introduction to Sustainability, March 18, 2014, Vancouver, BC. • Panelist, "Pipelines, tankers and British Columbia's economy." CREDible Conversations Forum, May 29, 2013. • Sumaila, U.R. and Hotte, N. "Economics of the Threats of Oil Spills along the BC Coast: Potential impacts on the economy of the Province." TerreWEB seminar series, March 18, 2013, Vancouver, BC. • Guest speaker, "Economic risks associated to the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway project," Master of Food and Resource Economics program preparatory course, August 2, 2012, Vancouver, BC. • Hotte, N., Sumaila, U.R., Lam, V.W.Y., Galli, A. and Wackernagel, M. "Ecological-financial deficits of nations." Fifth Annual International Ecosystem Services Partnership (ESP) Conference, July 31-August 4, 2012, Portland, Oregon. • Hotte, N., Herrick, S. and Norton, J. "The Relationship between Climate Change. Sardine Abundance and Commercial Fisheries Production in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem." Sixteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET), July 16-20, 2012, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. • Panelist, "Learning for Change: Introduction to experiential community learning," SUST 101: Sustainability 101, March 20, 2012, Vancouver, BC. • Guest speaker, "Writing funding proposals," GEOG 419: Research in Environmental Geography, January 25, 2012, Vancouver, BC. • Guest speaker, "YWCA Rooftop Food Garden," EDCP 585C: Special Course in Curriculum and Pedagogy, January 9, 2012. • Guest speaker, "YWCA Rooftop Food Garden," Simon Fraser University Local Food Project, October 1, 2011, Vancouver, BC. Ngaio Hotte Vancouver, BC PROFESSIONAL MEMBERSHIPS • Professional Biologist (P.Biol), Alberta Society of Professional Biologists 2008 - present (Designation also recognized by the Association of Professional Biology of British Columbia) • Canadian Environmental Practitioner-in-Training (EPt), 2007 - present Canadian Council for Human Resources in the Environment Industry PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES Columnist, BIOS newsletter, Alberta Society of Professional Biologists 2009 - 2013 Member, Communications Committee, Alberta Society of Professional Biologists 2009 - 2010 Member, Conference Committee, Alberta Society of Professional Biologists 2008 - 2009 APPENDIX D TO THE WRITTEN EVIDENCE OF RASHID SUMAILA CV of Harmony Bjarnason Harmony Bjarnason, mfre Project Manager, Master of Food and Resources Economics Program Department of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC • (604) 992-7257 • harmony. [email protected] Education MFRE (Master of Food and Resource Economics), University of British Columbia 2014 B.A., International Relations (Minor Economics). University of British Columbia 2004 Professional Experience Project Manager/ Instructor for PRE 547 20 1 4 - present Master of Food and Resource Economics Program Dept. of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia (Vancouver, BC) Advise graduate students on economic research projects, provide program administrative support, participate in program development and oversee graduate student capstone projects. • Develop course materials and instruct FRE 547, a course for graduate students with a focus on methodology for economic research, proposal writing and professional development. • Conduct preliminary research on economic issues and business topics to determine feasibility as economic research projects (e.g. market analysis of organic sector on Vancouver Island). • Program development including development of new courses, enhancement of ongoing courses, strategic planning, marketing, outreach and alumni relations. • Advise graduate students on development and execution of capstone projects. Climate Change Adaptation Planner/ Facilitator Fall 201 4 - Spring 201 5 BC Agriculture and Food - Climate Action Initiative (BC) Partnered with agricultural producers and local and provincial governments to develop a regional agricultural adaptation strategy for the Fraser Valley region of BC. • Analyzed regional climate change data and identified expected impacts to agricultural operations and created supporting materials for workshops. • Conducted interactive workshops with a cross-section of the agricultural community to discuss how climate change scenarios would affect operations and facilitated an exchange to identify adaptation options that would build resilience in the agricultural sector. • Developed a set of regional adaptation strategies and supporting actions, and published findings. Harmony Bjarnason Vancouver, BC Freelance Marketing and Branding Consultant 2004 - 201 4 Owner/Operator - Eye Candy Designs (Vancouver, BC) Worked with clients to transform their business development ideas into tangible marketing strategies that resonated with their target audience, expressed their brand's story and message and contributed to their financial bottom line. • Engaged in market research and strategic planning (including SWOT) to develop and implement actionable marketing frameworks that would maximize client returns. • Provided budget recommendations and sourcing options to minimize costs and utilized creative platforms including blogging and social media to achieve low cost, high impact campaigns. • Managed campaigns in traditional media (magazines, radio, local papers) and new media (online), as well as trade show marketing (including booth and collateral design). Also prepared press releases and policy briefs and nurtured media relationships. • Provided comprehensive graphic design services including creation of brand identity (logos, letterheads, etc.), promotional materials (flyers, brochures, etc.), advertisements for all types of print media, business reports, indoor and outdoor signage, trades show displays, website design and more. Awards and Distinctions MFRE Exit Scholarship - Academic Achievement, University of British Columbia 201 4 Publications Eraser Valley Regional Adaptation Strategies (2015) BC Agriculture and Food Climate Action Initiative Appendix "E": Certificate of Expert's Duty I, Ussif Rashid Sumaila, of Vancouver, British Columbia, have been engaged on behalf of the City of Vancouver to provide evidence in relation to Trans Mountain Pipeline ULC's Trans Mountain Expansion Project application currently before the National Energy Board. In providing evidence in relation to the above-noted proceeding, I acknowledge that it is my duty to provide evidence as follows: 1 . to provide evidence that is fair, objective, and non-partisan; 2. to provide evidence that is related only to matters within my area of expertise; and 3. to provide such additional assistance as the tribunal may reasonably require to determine a matter in issue. I acknowledge that my duty is to assist the tribunal, not act as an advocate for any particular party. This duty to the tribunal prevails over any obligation I may owe any other party, including the party on whose behalf I am engaged. Date: May 19, 2015 Signature;