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Russia in Review: June 23 – July 6

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Russia in Review: June 23 – July 6 Russia in Review: June 23 – July 6 By Mason Clark July 8, 2021 ISW has revamped its Russia in Review product to provide more-complete snapshots of Russian activity around the globe. Russian Navy Increases Number of Aggressive Actions to Counter NATO Exercises and Freedom of Maneuver Operations in the Black Sea NATO is currently conducting its largest ever Black Sea naval exercises to strengthen maritime collective defense and resist Russian efforts to limit international access to the Black Sea. Sea Breeze 2021 is the largest the Black Sea.1 NATO explicitly intends Sea iteration yet of NATO’s annual Sea Breeze Breeze 2021 to “demonstrate presence and exercises, held in the Black Sea since 1997 to assure allies of [NATO’s] maritime commitment strengthen interoperability between NATO and to collective defense.” The exercises involve 32 partner navies. The United States and Ukraine states, 5,000 personnel, 32 ships, and 40 are cohosting the ongoing Sea Breeze 2021 aircraft.2 Participating warships and personnel exercise, which runs from June 28 to July 10, in will practice multiple types of operations, 1 Institute for the Study of War ©2021 including amphibious warfare, maritime support US partners in the Black Sea interdiction, air defense, and anti-submarine region and counter the Kremlin’s illegal warfare.3 efforts to limit international access to the Black Sea. The Kremlin seeks to limit Ukraine The Kremlin decries Sea Breeze 2021 as a and NATO’s freedom of action in the Black Sea NATO provocation and violation of to cement Russian dominance over this region Russian waters and is conducting several and pressure US allies including Ukraine, naval exercises in response. Five Russian Georgia, and Turkey. The Russian Navy has warships in Russia’s Mediterranean Task force, expanded its aggressive actions in the Black Sea including the missile cruiser and Black Sea Fleet in 2021 and intends to normalize Russian flagship Moskva, the frigates Admiral Essen dominance over international waters in and Admiral Makarov, and two submarines violation of international law. began exercises in the Mediterranean Sea on June 25.4 The exercises practiced repelling Russia Around the Globe simulated air attacks and defending Russia’s naval base in Tartus, Syria. Russia’s Black Sea 1. The European Union (EU) rejected a Fleet, based in Crimea, began conducting air Franco-German proposal to hold a defense training checks on June 29 (the day summit with Russian President after the start of Sea Breeze 2021) including Vladimir Putin. France and Germany several S-400 and Pantsir air defense systems submitted a proposal to the European and 20 aircraft.5 The Moskva and Admiral Council on June 23, 2021, without advance Essen redeployed from the Mediterranean to notice, calling for a summit between EU Crimea on June 5 to replenish supplies and join leadership and Putin to develop closer EU- these ongoing Black Sea Fleet training checks.6 Russia engagement.10 The European The Russian Black Sea Fleet and Mediterranean Council rejected this proposal during a Task Force will likely continue to hold exercises private meeting on June 25, instead issuing parallel to Sea Breeze 2021 to demonstrate a joint statement calling on Russia to Russian capabilities and imply limits on NATO “demonstrate a more constructive freedom of action in the Black Sea. engagement” as a condition of further EU outreach.11 Central and Eastern European The Kremlin increased its aggressive states—particularly Estonia, Latvia, responses to NATO and Ukrainian Lithuania, Poland, and Romania—publicly actions in international waters in June decried France and Germany’s call for closer prior to Sea Breeze 2021. The Kremlin relations with Russia as a dangerous claimed its forces fired warning shots and concession in the absence of changes to dropped bombs near the Royal Navy’s HMS Russia’s malign actions in Europe.12 French Defender while it conducted a freedom of President Emmanuel Macron and German navigation operation off the shore of occupied Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated their Crimea on June 23.7 The United Kingdom intent to meet with Putin independently of denied Russian claims of bombing the HMS the EU following the June 25 European Defender and asserted the United Kingdom’s Council summit.13 Macron directly called for freedom of navigation rights near Crimea.8 a “structured dialogue” with Russia during a Russian aircraft have shadowed NATO warships call with Putin on July 2.14 Direct in the Black Sea throughout June, and the engagement with the Kremlin by EU Kremlin likely used electronic warfare to falsify members without substantial changes in the locations of several NATO warships in late Russian malign behavior will undermine June, making them appear to be violating collective European policies and further Russia’s claimed territorial waters.9 embolden Putin to act without fear of repercussions. Expanded NATO exercises and freedom of maneuver missions are necessary to 2 Institute for the Study of War ©2021 2. Belarus withdrew from the EU's international stage. The Kremlin continues Eastern Partnership cooperation to be threatened by rising Chinese power but initiative after the EU levied sectoral will increasingly seek to selectively leverage sanctions against Belarus. The EU China against US efforts to counter Russia’s approved sectoral sanctions against the aggressive foreign policy. Belarusian economy on June 24 in response to Belarus' grounding of Ryanair flight 4978 4. The Russian Pacific Fleet was highly on May 23.15 Belarus suspended its active during June 2021. The Russian participation in the EU’s Eastern Pacific Fleet conducted its largest naval Partnership Initiative—an EU framework to exercises since the Cold War in the central promote trade, travel agreements, and Pacific Ocean and near Hawaii from June 14 democracy between Western Europe and to 30, practicing the simulated destruction former Soviet states, including Armenia, of an enemy carrier strike group and strikes Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and against shore facilities.20 Approximately 20 Ukraine—in response on June 28.16 EU warships participated, including the missile foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stated the cruiser Varyag (the Pacific Fleet’s flagship), EU is ready to continue working with the two destroyers, three corvettes, a missile- “Belarusian people” despite the Belarusian tracking ship, an unspecified number of government’s withdrawal from the Eastern submarines and support vessels, and at least Partnership, likely through communication 20 aircraft. A US Navy Indo-Pacific with exiled Belarusian opposition leader Command spokesperson said some of the Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.17 The Kremlin will Russian vessels operated 20 to 30 nautical likely take advantage of Belarus’ increasing miles off the coast of Hawaii.21 The US isolation from non-Russian partners to scrambled F-22 fighters in Hawaii on June further isolate Belarus and integrate it into 14, likely in response to this Russian Russian-controlled structures.18 activity.22 The Russian MoD additionally announced on June 29 that the Russian 3. Russia and China signed a five-year Pacific Fleet will expand the infrastructure at extension to the Sino-Russian its Kamchatka submarine base by the end of friendship treaty. Russian President 2021.23 The Russian Navy is increasing its Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi power projection capabilities in the Pacific to Jinping announced a five-year extension of support the Kremlin’s campaign to expand the Sino-Russian Treaty on Good- its global military footprint. Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation (signed in 2001) on June 28.19 Putin praised 5. The Kremlin likely continued to the agreement for reaffirming mutual pressure Belarus for additional support for protecting “state unity and concessions on Russo-Belarusian territorial integrity,” (referencing Russia’s government integration. Secretary of the illegal annexation of Crimea) and the Russian Security Council Nikita Patrushev— rejection of the first use of nuclear weapons. a senior Kremlin security official close to Putin claimed that joint Sino-Russian Vladimir Putin—and self-declared economic projects and Sino-Russian Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko cooperation have a stabilizing role in world discussed Russo-Belarusian security affairs, highlighting the Shanghai cooperation issues “not subject to public Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and Sino- disclosure” in Minsk on June 29.24 Russian cooperation in the Korean Lukashenko atypically declined to make any Peninsula, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iran. public statement on the meeting. The President Xi Jinping praised Sino-Russian unusually sensitive nature of their efforts to build a multipolar world order and conversation indicates they likely discussed said he appreciated that Russia and China Russo-Belarusian security and military support each other's interests on the integration. Senior Russian-Belarusian 3 Institute for the Study of War ©2021 meetings at this level have historically 7. Tajikistan will mobilize military precipitated significant Belarusian security reservists to the Afghan border with integration concessions and new deals for Kremlin promises of support. Tajik the Kremlin.25 Russian President Vladimir President Emomali Ramhmon ordered the Putin and Lukashenko held another call on mobilization of 20,000 reservists to support July 1, discussing further security and ongoing military deployments to Tajikistan’s economic cooperation.26 The Kremlin is border with
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