Russia in Review: June 23 – July 6

By Mason Clark July 8, 2021

ISW has revamped its Russia in Review product to provide more-complete snapshots of Russian activity around the globe.

Russian Navy Increases Number of Aggressive Actions to Counter NATO Exercises and Freedom of Maneuver Operations in the Black Sea

NATO is currently conducting its largest ever Black Sea naval exercises to strengthen maritime collective defense and resist Russian efforts to limit international access to the Black Sea. Sea Breeze 2021 is the largest the Black Sea.1 NATO explicitly intends Sea iteration yet of NATO’s annual Sea Breeze Breeze 2021 to “demonstrate presence and exercises, held in the Black Sea since 1997 to assure allies of [NATO’s] maritime commitment strengthen interoperability between NATO and to collective defense.” The exercises involve 32 partner navies. The and Ukraine states, 5,000 personnel, 32 ships, and 40 are cohosting the ongoing Sea Breeze 2021 aircraft.2 Participating warships and personnel exercise, which runs from June 28 to July 10, in will practice multiple types of operations,

1 Institute for the Study of War ©2021 including amphibious warfare, maritime support US partners in the Black Sea interdiction, air defense, and anti-submarine region and counter the Kremlin’s illegal warfare.3 efforts to limit international access to the Black Sea. The Kremlin seeks to limit Ukraine The Kremlin decries Sea Breeze 2021 as a and NATO’s freedom of action in the Black Sea NATO provocation and violation of to cement Russian dominance over this region Russian waters and is conducting several and pressure US allies including Ukraine, naval exercises in response. Five Russian Georgia, and . The Russian Navy has warships in Russia’s Mediterranean Task force, expanded its aggressive actions in the Black Sea including the missile cruiser and Black Sea Fleet in 2021 and intends to normalize Russian flagship Moskva, the frigates Admiral Essen dominance over international waters in and Admiral Makarov, and two submarines violation of . began exercises in the Mediterranean Sea on June 25.4 The exercises practiced repelling Russia Around the Globe simulated air attacks and defending Russia’s naval base in Tartus, Syria. Russia’s Black Sea 1. The (EU) rejected a Fleet, based in Crimea, began conducting air Franco-German proposal to hold a defense training checks on June 29 (the day summit with Russian President after the start of Sea Breeze 2021) including Vladimir Putin. France and Germany several S-400 and Pantsir air defense systems submitted a proposal to the European and 20 aircraft.5 The Moskva and Admiral Council on June 23, 2021, without advance Essen redeployed from the Mediterranean to notice, calling for a summit between EU Crimea on June 5 to replenish supplies and join leadership and Putin to develop closer EU- these ongoing Black Sea Fleet training checks.6 Russia engagement.10 The European The Russian Black Sea Fleet and Mediterranean Council rejected this proposal during a Task Force will likely continue to hold exercises private meeting on June 25, instead issuing parallel to Sea Breeze 2021 to demonstrate a joint statement calling on Russia to Russian capabilities and imply limits on NATO “demonstrate a more constructive freedom of action in the Black Sea. engagement” as a condition of further EU

outreach.11 Central and Eastern European The Kremlin increased its aggressive states—particularly Estonia, Latvia, responses to NATO and Ukrainian , Poland, and Romania—publicly actions in international waters in June decried France and Germany’s call for closer prior to Sea Breeze 2021. The Kremlin relations with Russia as a dangerous claimed its forces fired warning shots and concession in the absence of changes to dropped bombs near the Royal Navy’s HMS Russia’s malign actions in Europe.12 French Defender while it conducted a freedom of President Emmanuel Macron and German navigation operation off the shore of occupied Chancellor reiterated their Crimea on June 23.7 The intent to meet with Putin independently of denied Russian claims of bombing the HMS the EU following the June 25 European Defender and asserted the United Kingdom’s Council summit.13 Macron directly called for freedom of navigation rights near Crimea.8 a “structured dialogue” with Russia during a Russian aircraft have shadowed NATO warships call with Putin on July 2.14 Direct in the Black Sea throughout June, and the engagement with the Kremlin by EU Kremlin likely used electronic warfare to falsify members without substantial changes in the locations of several NATO warships in late Russian malign behavior will undermine June, making them appear to be violating collective European policies and further Russia’s claimed territorial waters.9 embolden Putin to act without fear of

repercussions. Expanded NATO exercises and freedom of maneuver missions are necessary to 2 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

2. withdrew from the EU's international stage. The Kremlin continues Eastern Partnership cooperation to be threatened by rising Chinese power but initiative after the EU levied sectoral will increasingly seek to selectively leverage sanctions against Belarus. The EU China against US efforts to counter Russia’s approved sectoral sanctions against the aggressive foreign policy. Belarusian economy on June 24 in response to Belarus' grounding of flight 4978 4. The Russian Pacific Fleet was highly on May 23.15 Belarus suspended its active during June 2021. The Russian participation in the EU’s Eastern Pacific Fleet conducted its largest naval Partnership Initiative—an EU framework to exercises since the Cold War in the central promote trade, travel agreements, and Pacific Ocean and near Hawaii from June 14 democracy between Western Europe and to 30, practicing the simulated destruction former Soviet states, including Armenia, of an enemy carrier strike group and strikes Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and against shore facilities.20 Approximately 20 Ukraine—in response on June 28.16 EU warships participated, including the missile foreign policy chief stated the cruiser Varyag (the Pacific Fleet’s flagship), EU is ready to continue working with the two destroyers, three corvettes, a missile- “Belarusian people” despite the Belarusian tracking ship, an unspecified number of government’s withdrawal from the Eastern submarines and support vessels, and at least Partnership, likely through communication 20 aircraft. A US Navy Indo-Pacific with exiled Belarusian opposition leader Command spokesperson said some of the Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.17 The Kremlin will Russian vessels operated 20 to 30 nautical likely take advantage of Belarus’ increasing miles off the coast of Hawaii.21 The US isolation from non-Russian partners to scrambled F-22 fighters in Hawaii on June further isolate Belarus and integrate it into 14, likely in response to this Russian Russian-controlled structures.18 activity.22 The Russian MoD additionally announced on June 29 that the Russian 3. Russia and China signed a five-year Pacific Fleet will expand the infrastructure at extension to the Sino-Russian its Kamchatka submarine base by the end of friendship treaty. Russian President 2021.23 The Russian Navy is increasing its Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi power projection capabilities in the Pacific to Jinping announced a five-year extension of support the Kremlin’s campaign to expand the Sino-Russian Treaty on Good- its global military footprint. Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation (signed in 2001) on June 28.19 Putin praised 5. The Kremlin likely continued to the agreement for reaffirming mutual pressure Belarus for additional support for protecting “state unity and concessions on Russo-Belarusian territorial integrity,” (referencing Russia’s government integration. Secretary of the illegal annexation of Crimea) and the Russian Security Council Nikita Patrushev— rejection of the first use of nuclear weapons. a senior Kremlin security official close to Putin claimed that joint Sino-Russian Vladimir Putin—and self-declared economic projects and Sino-Russian Belarusian President cooperation have a stabilizing role in world discussed Russo-Belarusian security affairs, highlighting the Shanghai cooperation issues “not subject to public Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and Sino- disclosure” in on June 29.24 Russian cooperation in the Korean Lukashenko atypically declined to make any Peninsula, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iran. public statement on the meeting. The President Xi Jinping praised Sino-Russian unusually sensitive nature of their efforts to build a multipolar world order and conversation indicates they likely discussed said he appreciated that Russia and China Russo-Belarusian security and military support each other's interests on the integration. Senior Russian-Belarusian 3 Institute for the Study of War ©2021

meetings at this level have historically 7. Tajikistan will mobilize military precipitated significant Belarusian security reservists to the Afghan border with integration concessions and new deals for Kremlin promises of support. Tajik the Kremlin.25 Russian President Vladimir President Emomali Ramhmon ordered the Putin and Lukashenko held another call on mobilization of 20,000 reservists to support July 1, discussing further security and ongoing military deployments to Tajikistan’s economic cooperation.26 The Kremlin is border with Afghanistan on July 5 in continuing to advance its campaign to response to Taliban advances in establish a permanent military presence in Afghanistan.30 Putin promised his Belarus postured against NATO and counterparts from Tajikistan and Ukraine.27 Uzbekistan support from the Russian military both bilaterally and through the 6. Russian President Vladimir Putin Collective Security Treaty Organization approved an increasingly combative (CSTO) on July 6.31 The Russian Foreign National Security Strategy (NSS) that Ministry further stated Russia’s 201st removed all mention of cooperation military base in Tajikistan— Russia’s only with the West. Putin approved the new formal international military base—is NSS on July 3, replacing the existing NSS equipped with “everything necessary” to written in 2015.28 The new NSS paints an support Tajikistan if required.32 The increasingly alarmed picture of perceived Kremlin will likely increase its military Western threats. The NSS increases formal presence in Central Asia to counter the emphasis on protecting Russia’s “cultural potential threat of a jihadist resurgence in sovereignty” and traditional values against Afghanistan. The Kremlin will also prioritize perceived Western pressure, policy changes maintaining its dominant influence in the Kremlin has prioritized since 2015. The Central Asia and advancing its unitary NSS removes all references to cooperation security interests; its deployments to the with the United States and NATO, as well as area are unlikely to effectively replace NATO specific arms control and nuclear non- security operations in Afghanistan. proliferation objectives previously included in the 2015 strategy. Much of the strategy remains the same from 2015, and the Contributors to this Report: Kremlin has already enacted many of the policy changes and adaptations formalized Mason Clark in this document.29 The Kremlin’s George Barros formalization of its defensive worldview and Will Baumgardner removal of all mentions of cooperation with Brian Darios the West indicate an increasingly combative Catherine Hodgson mindset that is unlikely to respond to Rachel Kenny Western outreach or strategic dialogue in Matthew Sparks good faith.

1 “U.S. Sixth Fleet Announces Sea Breeze 2021 Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Participation,” US Navy, June 21, 2021, Kingdom, and the United States. https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News- 3 “NATO Allies and Partners Ready for Exercise Sea Stories/Article/2664699/us-sixth-fleet-announces-sea- Breeze 2021,” Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers breeze-2021-participation/. Europe, June 25, 2021, https://shape.nato.int/news- 2 The states participating in Sea Breeze 2021 include archive/2021/-allies-and-partners-ready-for- Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, exercise-sea-breeze-21. Estonia, France, Georgia, , , Italy, Japan, 4 [“Ships of the Russian Navy repelled an Attack of a Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Morocco, Norway, Pakistan, Mock Enemy During Exercises in the Mediterranean Poland, Romania, Senegal, Spain, South Korea, Sweden,

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https://www.politico dot eu/article/emmanuel-macron- Sea,”] TASS, June 27, 2021, https://tass dot ru/armiya-i- russia-vladimir-putin-european-union/. opk/11765763. 14 [“Telephone Exchanges with Mr Vladimir Putin, 5 [“Pilots of the Naval Aviation of the Black Sea Fleet and President of the Russian Federation,”] French Aviation of the Southern Military District Checked the Presidency, July 2, 2021, Air Defense System of Crimea,”] Russian MoD, June 29, https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel- 2021, https://function.mil dot macron/2021/07/02/echange-telephonique-avec-m- ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12369232@egNe vladimir-poutine-president-de-la-federation-de-russie; ws. [“Telephone Covnersation with French President 6 [“Guards Missile Cruiser ‘Moskva’ and frigate ‘Admiral Emmanuel Macron, Kremlin, July 2, 2021, Essen’ of the Black Sea Fleet are Returning from the http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/66055. Mediterranean Sea,”] Russian MoD, July 5, 2021, 15 “EU Imposes Sanctions on Belarusian Economy,” https://function.mil dot European Council of the European Union, June 24, ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12370157@egNew 2021, https://www.consilium.europa dot s. eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/06/24/eu-imposes- 7 “Russian Border Guards to Continue Thwarting sanctions-on-belarusian-economy/. Provocations in the Black Sea – Kremlin,” TASS, June 16 Olga Demidova, [“Belarus Suspends Participation in 24, 2021, https://tass dot com/politics/1306799; “Any Eastern Partnership,”] , June 28, 2021, Actions Possible in Response to Provocations Violating https://www.dw dot com/ru/belarus-priostanovila- Russian Borders, Says Kremlin,” TASS, June 24, 2021, uchastie-v-vostochnom-partnerstve/a-58080349. https://tass dot com/politics/1306821. 17 Tweet. 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Republic of China Xi Jinping,”] Kremlin, June 28, 2021, 10 Sam Fleming, Valentina Pop, Mehreen Khan, Michael http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/65940; Peel, Henry Foy, and Victor Mallet, “Berlin and Paris [“Joint statement of the Russian Federation and the Propose Reset for EU Relations with Moscow,” Financial People's Republic of China on the Twentieth Anniversary Times, June 23, 2021, of the Signing of the Cooperation Agreement on https://www.ft.com/content/03528026-8fa1-4910- Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation Between ab26-41cd26404439. the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of 11 European Council Conclusions on External Relations, China,”] Kremlin, June 28, 2021, http://static.kremlin 24 June 2021,” European Council of the European dot Union, June 24, 2021, https://www.consilium.europa ru/media/events/files/ru/hkwONx0FSpUGgXPaRU3xU dot eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/06/25/european- HRmkRneSXIR.pdf. council-conclusions-on-external-relations-24-june- 20 The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the “main 2021/. part” of the exercises concluded on June 24. The final 12 “European Council Conclusions on External Relations, reported exercises concluded on June 30. Anna 24 June 2021,” European Council of the European Berestovaya, Denis Ivlev, [“In the Central Part of the Union, June 24, 2021, https://www.consilium.europa Pacific Ocean, the main Part of the Operational Exercises dot eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/06/25/european- of the Pacific Fleet has been Completed,”] TVZvezda, council-conclusions-on-external-relations-24-june- June 24, 2021, https://tvzvezda dot 2021/; Sabine Siebold, Robin Emmott, and Gabriela ru/news/2021624254-pGRxa.html; [“The Crews of the Baczynska, “France and Germany Drop Russia Summit Ships of the Pacific Fleet During the Exercise in the Far Plan after EU's East Objects,” , June 25, 2021, Sea Zone Worked out the Tasks of Destroying the https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france- Aircraft Carrier Strike Group of the Mock Enemy,”] germany-drop-plans-russia-summit-after-eu-outcry- Russian Ministry of Defense, June 21, 2021, 2021-06-25/; “Kremlin 'Regrets' EU Rejection Of https://function.mil dot Proposed Summit With Putin,” Radio Free Europe / ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12367884@egNe Radio Liberty, June 25, 2021 ws; [“In the Central Part of the Pacific Ocean, an https://www.rferl.org/a/eu-summit-brussels-putin- Operational Exercise of the Diverse Forces of the Pacific russia-france-germany-lithuania/31325264.html. Fleet is Being Conducted,”] Russian Ministry of Defense, 13 David Herszenhorn, “Summit Exposes Stark Clash of June 10, https://function.mil dot 5EU Views on Russia,” Politico, June 25, 2021, Institute for the Study of War ©2021

Military Integration,” Institute for the Study of War, ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12366072@egNe October 27, 2020, ws; [“A Squadron of Ships of the Pacific Fleet Conducted http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belar Rocket and Artillery Fires in the Pacific Ocean,”] Russian us-warning-update-putin-intensifies-russian-belarusian- Ministry of Defense, June 30, 2021, https://function.mil military-integration. dot 26 [“VIII Forum of the Regions of Russia and Belarus,”] ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12369401@egNe Kremlin, July 1, 2021, http://kremlin dot ws; [“A Squadron of Ships of the Pacific Fleet Conducted ru/events/president/news/65982. Rocket and Artillery Fires in the Pacific Ocean,”] Russian 27 George Barros, “Russia in Review: Russia Opens Ministry of Defense, June 30, 2021, https://function.mil Permanent Training Center in Belarus and Sets dot Conditions for Permanent Military Basing,” Institute for ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12369401@egNe the Study of War, April 8, 2021, ws. http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia 21 William Cole, “Russian Naval Exercise Ends as Spy -review-russia-opens-permanent-training-center- Ship Remains in Hawaii area,” Honolulu Star- belarus-and-sets-conditions. Advertiser, June 21, 2021, 28 [“On the National Security Strategy of the Russian https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021/06/21/breaking- Federation,”] Kremlin, July 3, 2021, news/navy-conducts-drills-near-hawaii-as-russian-spy- http://static.kremlin dot ship-cruises-north-of-oahu/; Brendan Cole, “Russian ru/media/events/files/ru/QZw6hSk5z9gWq0plD1ZzmR Navy Warships Come Within Two Dozen Miles of 5cER0g5tZC.pdf; [“On the National Security Strategy of Hawaii,” Newsweek, June 23, 2021, the Russian Federation,”] Kremlin, December 31, 2015, https://www.newsweek.com/hawaii-pacific-fleet- http://static.kremlin dot russian-navy-uss-vinson-coast-close-1603292. ru/media/acts/files/0001201512310038.pdf. 22 Tyler Rogoway, “Hawaii-Based F-22s Scrambled on 29 Nataliya Bugayova, “Putin’s Offset: The Kremlin’s FAA's Request But Nobody Will Say Why (Updated),” Geopolitical Adaptations Since 2014,” Institute for the The Drive, June 14, 2021 Study of War, September 2020, https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41089/hawaii- http://www.understandingwar.org/report/putins-offset- based-f-22s-scrambled-on-faas-request-but-nobody- kremlin%E2%80%99s-geopolitical-adaptations-2014. will-say-why. 30 [“Tajikistan Mobilizes 20,000 Personnel amid Taliban 23 Timur Sherzad, [“Kamchatka Submariners Will Offensive,”] RBC, July 5, 2021, https://www.rbc dot Receive Three Dozen New Structures by the End of the ru/politics/05/07/2021/60e3266e9a794748f0fb74fd; Year,”] Tv Zvezda, June 29, 2021, https://tvzvezda dot [“Meeting of the Security Council of the Republic of ru/news/20216291239-oEvxv.html. Tajikistan,”] President of the Republic of Tajikistan, July 24 [“Lukashenko Discussed Issues with the Secretary of 5, 2021, http://president dot tj/ru/node/26124. the Russian Security Council,”] Izvestia, June 29, 2021, 31 [“Telephone Conversation with President of Tajikistan https://iz dot ru/1185699/2021-06-29/lukashenko- Emomali Rahmon,”] Kremlin, July 5, 2021, obsudil-s-sekretarem-sovbeza-rossii-voprosy- http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/66143; bezopasnosti-stran. [“Telephone Conversation with President of Uzbekistan 25 George Barros, “Belarus Warning Update: Belarus Shavkat Mirziyoyev,”] Kremlin, July 5, 2021, Confirms Plans to PurchaseAdvanced Air Defense http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/66144. Systems from Russia,” Institute for the Study of War, 32 [“The Russian Foreign Ministry Said that the 201st January 14, 2021, Military Base is Equipped to Provide Assistance Near the http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belar Border with Afghanistan,”] TASS, July 6, 2021, us-warning-update-belarus-confirms-plans-purchase- https://tass dot ru/politika/11833209. advanced-air-defense-systems; George Barros, “Belarus Warning Update: Putin Intensifies Russian-Belarusian

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