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The 2011 Mississippi River Basin Flood: a Perspective on Forecasting, Water Management, and Flood Fight Chandra S

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The 2011 Mississippi River Basin Flood: a Perspective on Forecasting, Water Management, and Flood Fight Chandra S The 2011 Mississippi River Basin Flood: A Perspective on Forecasting, Water Management, and Flood Fight Chandra S. Pathak, PhD, PE, D.WRE, F.ASCE HH&C Community of Practice Engineering and Construction US Army Corps of Engineers - HQ US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG® Acknowledgement Authors: Jeff Graschel (NOAA) Robert R. Holmes, PhD, P.E., D.WRE (USGS) Andrea G Veilleux, PhD (USGS) Charles E. Shadie, PE, D.WRE (USACE) Deborah H. Lee, PE, PH, D.WRE (USACE) Ron W. Bell, P.E. (USACE) Jody S. Farhat, PE, D.WRE (USACE) BUILDING STRONG® BUILDING STRONG® Mississippi River Watershed BUILDING STRONG® National Weather Service Role Provide weather, water and climate forecasts and warnings to: • Protect life and property • Enhance the national economy River Flood Forecasting is a collaborative effort between many agencies BUILDING STRONG® NWS River Forecast Centers 13 River Forecast Centers issue river guidance BUILDING STRONG® Pre-Event Conditions • Winter Outlook predicted wetter than average for Ohio & TN Valleys • Historic snow water equivalents occurred over Upper Miss Valley • Above normal rainfall in Feb caused elevated streamflow in the Ohio Valley BUILDING STRONG® Pre-Event Conditions • Spring flood Outlook indicated Above Average to High Flood Risk for Mississippi, Ohio, & Tennessee Valleys • Briefings provided to partners to convey flood risk • Then it started to “Rain” BUILDING STRONG® Rainfall Overview BUILDING STRONG® Communication/Collaboration • Continuous forecast coordination between NWS forecasters and USACE decision makers including 100+ scenarios for spillway operations • Daily coordination with USGS & USACE on real time discharge measurements to help validate and adjust hydraulic models and rating curves • NWS personnel stationed at USACE Emergency Operations Center • HEC-RAS collaboration with USACE, NWS, & HEC BUILDING STRONG® Header Here Subhead ► Bullet 1 ► Bullet 2 ► Bullet 3 BUILDING STRONG® Previous Peak Previous Peak 37.24’ 34.56’ Previous Peak Previous Peak 39.01’ 26.04’ BUILDING STRONG® RDG Deployment Prior to Flood Special Measurements Minnesota River at Granite Falls, MN. Natchez, MS * Installation of 51 Rapid Deployment Gages (RDG) * 2,331 special streamflow measurements in 15 states, Feb –Aug * 74 Rating extensions BUILDING STRONG® 2011 Major Flood Peaks BUILDING STRONG® 2011 Peaks on the Mississippi River River Miles (Not to Scale) BUILDING STRONG® Mississippi River Ohio River Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway BUILDING STRONG® Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway • Main Channel Streamflow • Inflow and Outflow of Floodway • Water Level Time Series in Floodway Water in feet level Water BUILDING STRONG® Ongoing Flood Science and Flood Documentation Efforts for 2011 . U.S. Flood Report to include: - Flood peaks - Flood probability assessments - Water quality studies - Sediment/Geomorphology - Hydrology Assessments • Flood volumes • Trends - Biologic Impacts BUILDING STRONG® The Mississippi Watershed 40% Upper Mississippi and Missouri Rivers Combined 60% Ohio River BUILDING STRONG® Ohio Valley Reservoirs •78 USACE multi-purpose reservoirs •31 TVA multi-purpose reservoirs •97 local flood protection projects Cost of Projects Damages Prevented $ $3.6 billion $ $ $35.7 billion BUILDING STRONG® Flood Risk Management Cost of Total LRD Damages prevented: Over $35.7 B projects Damages Damages prevented 2010 Cumberland River Flood: $294.6 M prevented $ Damages prevented 2011 Mississippi/Ohio Flood: $110 B $ $ $3.6 billion $35.7 billion LRD Portfolio of Dams MSC Comparison of DSACs 180 40 DSAC IV Dams 35 160 DSAC III Dams 30 140 DSACII Dams 76 25 120 Navigation DSAC I Dams 20 Dams = 58 100 15 Flood Control 44 Dams = 79 80 10 44 70 49 60 5 39 51 0 40 38 21 39 33 25 20 24 16 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1920 13 >1990 <1920 16 14 10 10 11 13 2 01 5 2 3 0 21 1 1 1 1 LRD MVD NAD NWD POD SAD SPD SWD Average Age = 55 yrs = OM&R $’s LRD – 48% DSAC I, 33% DSACBUILDING II, 23% STRONGDSAC III ® of USACE dams Lower Ohio-Mississippi River Flood Control LRD Commander Flood reduction assumes direction of effects can be LRN Cumberland achieved all the System and TVA way to New Tennessee System Orleans BUILDING STRONG® Total 30 Day Rainfall April 5 to May 5, 2011 BUILDING STRONG® 23 50 Total System Flood Storage Capacity Utilized 38.9% 25 Total Percent Total 0 7-Apr-2011 14-Apr-2011 21-Apr-2011 28-Apr-2011 5-May-2011 Travel Cairo Travel to Time 26 Days 26 2 Days Days 2 BUILDING STRONG® 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 125 125 125 125 125 Percent Flood Storage Utilized 24 Peak Reservoir Utilization Spring 2011 Floods • Wettest April in 117 Years across the basin • Record amount of storage utilized basin- wide • Stages reduced on entire length of Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers Full Flood Pool Used • Monroe Lake, IN • Patoka Lake, IN • Rough River Lake, KY • Taylorsville Lake, KY Interim Risk Reduction Measures at critical Dam Safety Action Classification Projects limited flood storage use BUILDING STRONG® 25 50 Total System Flood Storage Capacity Utilized 38.9% 25 Total Percent Total 0 7-Apr-2011 14-Apr-2011 21-Apr-2011 28-Apr-2011 5-May-2011 New Record Stages Ohio River Smithland LRD Reservoirs Cairo Reservoir Mississippi River RecordL Pool New Madrid Flood of Record Caruthersville Big Muddy River Murphysboro Brookville L. Wabash River Mt. Carmel Monroe Harsha L. Patoka River Princeton Patoka Taylorsville L. Cave Run L. New Record Pool Levels Rough River L. Nolin L. Nolin Lake Barkley L. Cave Run Lake Kentucky L. Rough River Lake Patoka Lake Taylorsville Lake Cairo, IL Monroe Lake 61.72’ Harsha Lake Brookville Lake Kentucky Lake Barkley Lake BUILDING STRONG® 26 River System Schematic - Current Status as of 12:00 EDT THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI Peak Date Cairo Official 59.6 59.6 59.6 59.3 58.7 58.1 57.6 57.1 61.7 2-May 24 hours QPF Hermann, MO Stage (ft) Contingency 59.6 5 Day QPF Paducah Official 55.0 55.3 55.5 55.5 55.3 55.1 54.9 54.6 55.0 5-May 24 hours QPF MISSOURI R. Stage (ft) Contingency 55.0 5 Day QPF Chester, IL Upper Miss. @ Chester (kcfs) 617 589 568 548 531 517 505 493 483 704 2-May 24 hours QPF 5/5/2011 Ohio @ Smithland (kcfs) 1175 1166 1149 1130 1106 1075 1034 978 907 1177 5-May 24 hours QPF NOTE: Cairo, IL L&D L&D Smithland Gray Data indicates 53 52 OHIO RIVER L&D preliminary data Olmsted Bold represents crest stage Paducah, KY L&D Barkley Dam CRITICAL STAGES THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE Peak Date Cairo - Kentucky Kentucky Outflow (kcfs) 184 184 184 184 184 184 230 25 Apr Dam Floodway New Madrid NewMadrid 65.0ft - Top of Protection Barkley Outflow (kcfs) 90 90 90 90 90 90 105 26 Apr 61.7ft - Flood of Record (2011) KY / BK Pool 372.4 371.4 370.2 369.2 368.1 367.0 372.8 4 May Paducah - Nashville District / TVA Forecast Data (Forecasted Rain Included) 63.8ft - Top of Protection Cumb @ Cheatham (kcfs) 45 44 44 50 57 61 66 1 May 60.5ft - Flood of Record (1937) Tenn @ Pickwick (kcfs) 73 64 45 45 44 44 185 11 May Wolf Pool 725.1 726.2 725.9 725.4 724.8 724.2 725.9 7 May Creek Memphis, TN Outflow 8.0 15.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 29 24 Apr Crested 47.87 5/10 Center Pool 657.2 657.7 657.0 656.3 655.6 654.9 658.1 6 May Floodstage (ft) Stage (ft) Date Hill Outflow 0.2 7.6 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 12 23 May 34.0 45.0 5/5 TENNESSEE RIVER CUMBERLAND CUMBERLAND RIVER Cheatham Old Hickory Cordell Hill L&D L&D L&D Wolf Creek Dam ARKANSAS R. Nashville, TN Cumberland System Ops RIVER RIVER Pickwick RIVER Wolf Creek - 8.1 kcfs Vicksburg, MS Center Hill - 0.2 kcfs J. Percy Center Dale MISSISSIPPI RIVER Crested 57.06 5/19 Dale Hollow - 3.2 kcfs Floodstage (ft) Stage (ft) Date Priest Dam Hill Dam Hollow Dam J. Percy Priest - 4.5 kcfs 43.0 47.8 5/5 % Storage Utilized RED RIVER < 25% Wilson OBEY 25% - 50% STONES New Orleans, LA FORK CANEY 50% - 75% Crested 17.18 5/21 Tennessee River Floodstage (ft) Stage (ft) Date > 75% Storage Projects 17.0 14.5 5/5 BUILDING STRONG Wheeler Guntersville Chickamauga ® 27 Complexities of Water Management Natural crest without breach @ 66.73’ 65 Crests 66.73’ Natural without breach 60 65.50’ Natural Floodway Operation @ 61.72’ Observed 61.72’ 55 Stage without Reservoir Cairo Stage50 Operations 45 A battle of 40 Observed inches!! Top of flood pool (375) 35 375 Reductions Cuts Initiated with Target 61’ at Achieved______________ Cairo 370 Balance releases to KY/BK – 3.25 feet maintain pools below 374 ft while reducing All LRD/TVA Reservoirs – 3.78 feet 5.01 feet flood heights at Paducah. 365 Floodway – 1.23 feet Maintain releases to Increase releases to Kentucky-Barkley keep pool on guide keep pools steady curve. ahead of crest. Pool Elevation 360 355 BUILDING STRONG® Birds Point–New Madrid Floodway • Completed in 1932 • Operated (Levees Breached) in 1937 and 2011 • 133,000 acre floodway – Completely flooded in 2011 • Design Flow of 550,000 cfs • 2011 Peak Flows of 400,000 cfs BUILDING STRONG® Cairo No Breach Breach LRD LMRF MVD C BPNM CRRE MVM Impacts L OHRF HEC C Ohio River Community Model Team LRD, LRP, LRH, LRL, LRN ERDC, HEC OHRFC, LMRFC, NCRFC ORSANCO IN, KY, OH, PA, WV BUILDING STRONG® Cairo No Breach Breach Ohio River Community Model Team BUILDING STRONG® The Mississippi Watershed 40% Upper Mississippi and Missouri Rivers Combined 60% Ohio River BUILDING STRONG® Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System Project Purposes • Flood Control • Navigation Fort Peck • Hydropower No rth North • Irrigation Garrison Da k o ta Dakota • Water Supply Mo nta na • Water Quality Control So uth Da k o ta • Recreation Oahe Big Bend • Fish and Wildlife Wyoming Fort Randall Gavins Point Io wa Nebra sk a Co lo ra d o Ka nsa s Misso uri BUILDING STRONG® BUILDING STRONG® Runoff Components Plains Snowpack Mountain Snowpack Rainfall + rainfall + rainfall March and April May, June and July March through October ~ 25% annual runoff ~ 50% annual runoff 2011 Runoff = 61.0 MAF Highest runoff since 1898 Previous Record was 49.0 MAF in 1997 BUILDING STRONG® Missouri River Mainstem System Annual Runoff above Sioux City, IA Million Acre-Feet 70 2011 Historic Drought Periods 60 50 40 34.3 MAF 10% U.D.
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