iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY
NOVEMBER 2010
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORSNOVEMBER 2010 AND INTELLIGENCE REPORT
SECOND QUARTER 2012
APRIL-JUNE
Enterprise iLembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: 032 – 946 1256 Fax: 032 – 946 3515
iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
FOREWORD This intelligence report comprises of an assessment of key economic indicators for the iLembe District Municipality for the second quarter of 2012, i.e. April to June 2012. This is the 6th edition of the quarterly reports, which are unique to iLembe as we are the only district municipality to publish such a report.
The overall objective of this project is to present economic indicators and economic intelligence to assist Enterprise iLembe in driving its mandate, which is to drive economic development and promote trade and investment in the District of iLembe.
This quarter sees the inclusion of updated annual data for 2011 which was released by Quantec in the first week of August 2012. The updated data shows that iLembe has grown by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, with the tertiary sector showing the most significant growth. Manufacturing has been taken over by ‘finance, insurance, real estate and business services’ as the highest contributor to GDP. The unemployment rate has reduced in 2011 to 21.3%, and iLembe has managed to attract 4% more highly skilled workers than the previous year. See further updated annual stats from page 41 onwards.
All the regular quarterly statistics are also included from page 15. It is positive to see that while both the BER and SACCI business confidence indices are down this quarter, the iLembe BCI is up to 6.8 points. There has been growth this quarter in the number of building plans submitted and approved, and vehicle sales also continue to show growth. While passenger movement through KSIA is down year on year, volumes of cargo handled at Richards Bay and Durban Ports shows consistent year on year growth.
Enterprise iLembe has been busy this quarter. We have created 99 new jobs in agriculture this quarter, adding to the total of 674 jobs in agriculture created to date. Moringa tree plantations that will supply a bio-diesel manufacturing plant have been completed and the building of iLembe’s first winery is underway. See more news and updates on projects in the ‘News’ and ‘Enterprise Ilembe Update’ sections below.
Finally, we are excited to announce that EI has gone live with its Twitter and Facebook pages – like our Facebook page by searching for us, or simply following this link: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Enterprise- iLembe/413619951993058
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Table of Contents Foreword ...... 2
Summary of Key Indicators ...... 6
Overview of the iLembe District Economy ...... 8
Latest News and Developments within iLembe ...... 10
Enterprise iLembe Update (Q2 2012) ...... 13
Section One: iLembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Quarterly Data) ...... 16
Summary of the State of the Economy: Quarter 2, 2012 ...... 16
Business Confidence ...... 17
Building Plans and New Service Connections for KwaDukuza ...... 23
Transport Trends ...... 27
Employment Indices for South Africa ...... 36
Enterprise iLembe Business Expansion & Retention Survey ...... 39
Section Two: iLembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Base Data) ...... 43
Demographic Profile ...... 43
Socio-Economic Indicators (2010) ...... 48
Employment Indicators ...... 52
The Informal Economy ...... 56
Production, Expenditure and Investment ...... 59
ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS ...... 67
A1.1 Population and Households ...... 67
A1.2 Racial Profile ...... 67
A1.3 HIV and AIDS ...... 67
A1.4 Gender Profile ...... 68
A1.5 Age Profile ...... 68
A1.6 Energy used for Lighting (2010) ...... 69
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
A1.7 Type of Toilet (2010) ...... 70
A1.8 Water (2010) ...... 70
A1.9 Type of Dwelling (2010) ...... 71
A1.10 Education Level (2010) ...... 72
A1.11 Employment and Unemployment ...... 73
A1.12 Employment by type and skill level ...... 73
A1.13 Employment by Industry ...... 74
A1.14 Gross Geographic Product by Industry ...... 75
A1.16 Expenditure by Category ...... 76
A1.17 Expenditure by sub-category ...... 76
A1.18 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type ...... 78
A1.19 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry ...... 78
A1.20 Building Plans KwaDukuza ...... 79
A1.21 New Service Connections KwaDukuza ...... 80
A1.22 Airport Passenger Movements ...... 81
A1.23 Port Movements ...... 82
LIST OF GRAPHS Graph 2 Racial Profile for 2011 ...... 45 Graph 3 Gender Profile 2011 ...... 45 Graph 4 Age Distribution for 2011 ...... 46 Graph 5 HIV Positive and AIDS deaths (2011) ...... 47 Graph 6 Energy used for lighting (2010) ...... 48 Graph 7 Type of Toilet 2010 ...... 49 Graph 8 Source of Water in 2010 ...... 50 Graph 9 Type of Dwelling in 2010 ...... 51 Graph 10 Employment Status in 2011 ...... 52 Graph 11: Employment by Sector for iLembe, 2001-2011 ...... 55 Graph 12: Formal Employment by Skill Level in 2011 ...... 56 Graph 13: Formal and Informal Employment in 2011 ...... 57
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph 14 Goss Geographic Product for 2011, percentage contribution per 9 sectors ...... 60 Graph 15 Distribution of Expenditure in 2011 ...... 61 Graph 16 Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Sub-Categories, 2011 ...... 63 Graph 17: Domestic Fixed Capital Investment per Industry in 2011 ...... 65
LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Summary of Key Economic Indicators ...... 6 Table 2: Population and Households (2011) ...... 43 Table 3 Higher estimate of iLembe’s population based on StatsSA information ...... 44 Table 4 Unemployment rate, 2011 ...... 53 Table 5 Types of Informal Activities in KwaDukuza ...... 57
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
SUMMARY OF KEY INDICATORS The table below contains a summary of the key indicators for iLembe within the context of the KwaZulu-Natal province, and highlights the provincial and district indicators for 2011, and the district indicators for 2010 for comparative purposes.
Table 1: Summary of Key Economic Indicators
Key Indicator iLembe KwaZulu-Natal 2010 2011 2011 Population 562 815 564 088 10 819 128 Households 134 275 134 723 2 530 442 Race (%) African 90.48% 90.71% 85.64% Coloured 0.46% 0.47% 1.41% Asian 6.91% 6.67% 8.34% White 2.15% 2.15% 4.61% Gender (%) Male 48.35% 47.84% 47.69% Female 51.65% 52.16% 52.31% Age (%) 0 - 14 years 33.19% 33.64% 33.84% 15 - 29 years 31.67% 31.07% 30.42% 30 - 49 years 21.49% 21.71% 22.57% 50 - 65 years 9.11% 9.01% 8.75% over 65 years 4.53% 4.57% 4.42% HIV/Aids (%) HIV Positive 16.82% 16.42% 15.68% Aids Deaths 1.27% 1.26% 1.20% Employment Employed (Formal and informal ) 99 784 100 455 2 174 028 (number) Unemployed 28 783 27 202 598 186 Not economically active 222 025 220 851 3 906 833 Unemployment Rate (Strict) 22.39% 21.3% 21.57% Type of Formal 78.32% 76.81% 76.98% Employment Informal 21.68% 23.19% 23.02% (%) Skill (%) Highly Skilled 11.32% 15.34% 18.07% Skilled 40.50% 39.00% 43.03% Semi and Unskilled 48.18% 45.67% 38.89% Employment by Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.52% 10.16% 4.86% Industry (%) Mining and quarrying 0.52% 0.63% 0.80% Manufacturing 16.79% 16.47% 13.19% Electricity, gas and water 0.11% 0.11% 0.29% Construction 6.44% 6.33% 6.31% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and 21.98% 21.48% 21.73%
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Key Indicator iLembe KwaZulu-Natal 2010 2011 2011 accommodation Transport, storage and communication 3.26% 3.17% 5.59% Finance, insurance, real estate and business 13.58% 13.28% 14.73% services Community, social and personal services 17.19% 16.65% 16.59% General government 10.61% 11.73% 15.92% Gross Value Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.84% 4.47% 4.47% Added by Mining and quarrying 0.83% 2.14% 2.14% Industry (%) Manufacturing 29.17% 18.18% 18.18% Electricity, gas and water 0.93% 3.00% 3.00% Construction 2.83% 4.21% 4.21% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and 14.83% 15.91% 15.91% accommodation Transport, storage and communication 7.21% 12.27% 12.27% Finance, insurance, real estate and business 19.85% 18.37% 18.37% services Community, social and personal services 5.08% 7.12% 7.12% General government 9.43% 14.32% 14.32% Expenditure (%) Durable Goods 10.08% 7.90% 7.79% Semi-Durable Goods 13.00% 9.18% 9.09% Non-Durable Goods 36.02% 41.75% 40.80% Services 40.90% 41.16% 42.33% Domestic Fixed Buildings and construction works 32.57% 38.84% 45.24% Investment (%) Machinery and other equipment 49.22% 48.27% 39.45% Transport equipment 16.64% 11.49% 13.88% Transfer costs 1.58% 1.40% 1.42%
Source: Quantec Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
OVERVIEW OF THE ILEMBE DISTRICT ECONOMY The iLembe District Municipality is situated on the east coast of South Africa, in the KwaZulu-Natal Province. iLembe is one of the 11 district municipalities of the KwaZulu-Natal province and is also the smallest District Municipality in the province, with a total population of approximately 563 000. The District Municipality covers approximately 3260 square kilometres and is divided into four local municipalities. The four municipalities are: Ndwedwe Local Municipality Mandeni Local Municipality KwaDukuza Local Municipality Maphumulo Local Municipality
iLembe is located between two of Africa’s busiest ports, Durban and Richards Bay, on the primary economic development corridor in the province, and is therefore well positioned not only to local, but also international markets. The recent development of King Shaka International Airport and the Dube Trade Port just a few kilometres from the southern border of iLembe has magnified what was already a prime investment destination. Despite its strategic location, iLembe faces numerous economic challenges such as the high levels of poverty in the rural inland areas, which contrasts with rapid development along its coastal regions. The District has been proactive in developing Enterprise iLembe, a broad based institution
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
aimed at facilitating local economic development, in response to its challenges of high rates of unemployment and correspondingly high levels of poverty.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
LATEST NEWS AND DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN ILEMBE King Shaka Tourism Route The King Shaka Tourism Route draft report has been completed and a preview is given here. The report was developed through extensive stakeholder consultation and existing products and routes were incorporated. It was recommended that each road and product falls under the Route, which follows the main roads of the District, and has gateway entrance points at the south in Ballito, the north along the R102 near Amathikhulu, and the west along the R102 toward Maphumulo. Five Sub Routes, all of which will fall under the District Route brand, were recommended. They are listed and described below: SUB ROUTE SUB ROUTE LOCATION DESCRIPTION NAME Footsteps of This sub route will begin in KwaDukuza, and It is suggested that the route builds on the Shaka branch west along the R74, incorporating the existing King Shaka Heritage Route and its King Shaka Visitors’ Centre. It will also branch heritage sites. north onto the R102 from KwaDukuza, along the R102 with the proposed King Shaka Statue in Mandeni as well as the Ultimatum Tree as key point in the north, ending at the P415 in Mandeni in the north. Brave Way It is proposed that another sub route begin in This route will include the waterfall in Ballito, and branch off along Holla Trials, and into Ndwedwe Municipality’s Nsuze area, as well as Ndwedwe. This route is aimed at the adventure sites where mineral deposits have been lover, and therefore includes surfing, micro discovered and provide opportunity for tourism lighting, and other adventurous activities. development. Birder’s This route begins in the north at Amathikhulu, This route will incorporate birding found in Paradise along the R102, south to Groutville, branching off Mandeni and Maphumulo Municipalities. This to birding products at Glendhow, Zinkwazi, the route is aimed at birding-niche tourists Tugela Mouth, and the Amatikhulu Game (twitchers) and incorporates the natural beauty Reserve. The route also stretches west to include of the District’s hinterland. the Tugela Loop in Maphumulo. North Coast This is an existing route and has an important It is proposed that this route falls under the Meander role to play, being at the southern gateway broader District Route, running further to (developed by entrance. It currently runs from outside the Groutville in the north. It is proposed that this Celia Tabb) District in the south and ends at Tinley Manor, as route remains branded as the North Coast well as along the P467 in the north. Meander, as an individual product, but under the umbrella brand of the District Route. Warrior Walk It starts at the Amathikulu Nature Reserve and The iLembe Warrior Walk (Bhaduza ne Hawed) (developed by follows the coastline, stopping over at – is a fully escorted 6 day walk/ hike that is uBuhle Belembe community owned tented camps along the route steeped in local cultural experiences. This route Tour Operators) and ending at the one of the prestigious hotels or is best experienced through tour operators. It is resorts in Ballito. proposed that this route remains branded as the Warrior Walk, as an individual product, but under the umbrella brand of the District Route.
In order to unlock the Route, additional products (some of which were identified as being priority), as well as 3 infrastructural requirements were identified. The nine priority projects are listed below: Hot Ballito Campaign
iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
King Shaka Heritage Route Rehabilitation of Ngwenya Nature Reserve Development of Adventure Hub along Tugela River Sugar Rush Adventure Centre Nsuze Waterfall The Groutville Zulu Village The Fraser’s Zulu Village Umhlali Village
Infrastructural requirements, as listed below have been recommended at specific points and roads throughout the Route, these include: Information Centres Upgrades Signage Upgrades Road Upgrades
The route plan is still in draft format and is in the process of being reviewed by Enterprise iLembe. The final report will be released soon and will be available from EI.
Enterprise iLembe on Facebook and Twitter Ei has gone live with its Facebook and Twitter pages; within 24 hours the Facebook page received over 40 likes increasing to 182 over a period of a few weeks. Please search Enterprise iLembe and ‘like’ the page. Or click on the following link: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Enterprise-iLembe/413619951993058 or Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/enterpriseil
Mr. Price Pro – a great success Ballito’s Willards beach proved, yet again, to be the perfect and ever-obliging host of this year’s Mr Price Pro With gorgeous weather for the majority of the week, the event saw a record number of beach-goers flock to the North Coast beaches with an excess of 70 000 people coming through the gates over the seven days1. The image to the left shows the Mens Runner-up, Nathaniel Curran (USA), and The Mens Champion, Glenn Hall (Ireland)2.
The Entrepreneur is back! Last year’s popular Entrepreneur Competition is back and, this year, with a new and improved programme that has had the KwaZulu-Natal north coast’s budding businessmen and women clamouring to enter. The competition is a joint venture between the iLembe Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Tourism (ICCIT),
1 Kirsten Heilgendorff, www.mrpricepro.com 2 Image: Ryan Janssens, www.mrpricepro.com
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
African Bank and Enterprise iLembe. It ran for the first time in 2011 and proved to be an effective vehicle for driving enterprise development opportunities, creating jobs and stimulating economic growth in the area. Over 100 entries have been received this year and the panel of experts (mentors) are in the process of scoring the entries. Thirty contestants will be chosen and receive eight weeks of free training and mentorship every Saturday from August 25. During this time they will put together a comprehensive business plan. The top ten business plans will be selected and presented to a panel of judges known as the ‘Eagle’s Nest’ on October 25. Besides funding, winners will also receive 12 months of business support from ICCIT and its mentors. For more information see www.ilembechamber.co.za.
Upcoming Events Dolphin Coast Striders Ultra Marathon – 02 September 2012. This event includes a 50 km, 21 km and 10 km run and a 5 km fun run. For more information and to enter online visit: www.dolphincoaststriders.co.za
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Enterprise iLembe Update (Q2 2012)
Enterprise iLembe is the Economic Development Agency for the iLembe District Municipality responsible for Trade & Investment Promotion and Local Economic Development in the region. Since their inception, the agency has been responsible for an enormous amount of development and promotion within the district which has resulted in real infrastructure and employment creation. Some examples of this development include:
Agricultural Projects: Enterprise iLembe has been prolific in their initiation of diverse and unique agricultural projects. These projects have created 674 jobs thus far. These include: Agri-processing hubs: This project involves the establishment of 8 hydroponic (tunnel) farms in the four local municipalities. Over R17 million has been invested into this project to date, 140 jobs created, and profits are already being reaped through the sale of high quality fruit and vegetables harvested. Open Farms: This project involves supporting community-based co-operatives to establish viable agricultural gardens which produce vegetables such as cabbage, butternut, potatoes, onions, etc. for both community needs and for sale in the market as processed products. Over 500 jobs have been retained through co-operatives thus far. The total number of farms supported this past year is eighteen. Vineyards: ILembe Vineyard projects involves the establishment of a primary Villard Blanc crop that will be grown as a catalyst to the establishment of a wine industry in the district. This involves the going of grapes within the Local Municipalities that will be used in the winery to produce wine and brandy, table grapes and fruit juice. Thus far, 50 direct jobs have been created across the 10.1 hectres of vineyards that have been planted, and R5.5 million has been invested. Moringa Tree Plantations: Phase 2 of the iLembe Bio Diesel Project is the Moringa Tree plantations Project. The purpose of this project is to facilitate a process whereby small growers or communities with land are able to participate in a district wide programme by planting and supplying Moringa to a centralised biodiesel manufacturing plant. Thus far, almost R3 million has been invested and 94 jobs have been created between four co-operatives. Tourism Projects: Tourism is an important sector for iLembe and a lot of work is being done to ensure that the sector is diversified and includes opportunities for SMMEs.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Nonoti Mass Beach Resort: This is an exciting new tourism project planned for the Nonoti River Mouth in KwaDukuza which will uplift the currently underdeveloped area of Nonoti and compliment the planned Blythdale Coastal Resort. The resort will be an exhibition of the Zulu Culture by using soft ethnic colours and materials, and including a 5-star tented camp! The Area Based Plan, Environmental Plan and Precinct Plan are currently underway. Winery: The vineyards mentioned above will supply grapes to a winery that will be established on a 10 hectare parcel of land. Building of the winery has commenced at Collisheen Estate and to date R3.5million has been invested and 12 direct jobs have been created. King Shaka Tourism Route: The draft route report has been completed and is awaiting approval. Arts and Crafts Projects: Crafters are located across the district; the iLembe Craft Hub was established at the Sangweni Tourism Centre where local product being are being sourced and sold. The centre averages R6 000 sales per month (over R100000 sales to date). Ei was presented with an opportunity to use the PSA exhibition at Gateway on 27 & 28 May 2012 and local crafters were given the opportunity to exhibit their wares at the exhibition under the guidance of our Arts & Crafts Officer. The recycled tin products were a big hit. Manufacturing Projects: Bio-diesel Manufacturing: This project aims to establish a bio diesel processing plant, delivering vehicle-grade diesel from used oil (initially) and ultimately from Moringa seed (as mentioned above). R7.4 million rand has already been invested into the plant which is situated in Mandeni and 10 jobs have been created. The EIA has been approved, awaiting the Manufacturing Waste Licence. Informal market and iLembe pack house: The feasibility study has been completed and is under review. The Mambulu Titanium Project: Mambulo is located in the Maphumulo Local Municipality. MINTEK investigated and confirmed that titanium deposits had been found in this area however a further geotechnical study is required to verify the amount of titanium deposits and sustainability thereof. Marketing and Communications: Enterprise iLembe are establishing and maintaining partnerships with various stakeholders and institutions in order to further the mandate of the agency. Some of the recent initiatives include the RPMASA & Proudly South African Workshop, Indaba 2012, the Fashion Industry Networking Session. In addition a weekly column has been negotiated and secured for the Agency in the North Coast Courier, Eyethu and Stanger Weekly, the column is used to communicate the various
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
programmes and activities in addition to profiling the staff members. Enterprise iLembe has also has gone live with its Facebook and Twitter pages.
For more information on these projects and a large amount of potential investment opportunities visit www.enterpriseilembe.co.za
Key Findings: Enterprise iLembe Update Agricultural projects (agri-processing hubs, vineyards, open farms, moringa planting) have created 674 jobs to date – 99 of which were in quarter 2 2012; Moringa tree plantations to supply the biodiesel processing plant have been established, almost R3million has been invested and 94 jobs have been created in 4 co-operatives; Villard blanc vineyards have been planted and building of the winery has commenced; The King Shaka Tourism Route draft report has been completed; Ei has gone live with its Facebook and Twitter pages.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
SECTION ONE: ILEMBE ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND ANALYSIS (QUARTERLY DATA)
Summary of the State of the Economy: Quarter 2, 2012
Quarter 2 has seen the South African economy move from ‘coasting’ to ‘stagnating’, as the majority of indicators show declining growth as 2012 progresses. The national BER Business Confidence Index fell by 11 points to 41 (4.1); and the SACCI BCI was 94.9 points in June which is historically very low, albeit up from May’s all-time low of 92.8 points. The FNB property index shows that while house price growth on a year-on-year basis is still at a relatively healthy level of 8.3%, it is believed that the above-8% levels of recent months reflects the peak in the recent resurgence in house price growth which originated during the summer months, and that a broad slowing is once more the order of the day in the near term. John Loos from FNB anticipates a year-on-year property price growth rate of around 5-6% by year end.
Furthermore, according to Adcorp, employment in South Africa fell sharply at an annualised rate of 2.0% in June, following an even higher decline in May of 3.1%. Job losses in June amounted to 31 781, bringing the total job losses for the past two months to 82 520. However, Stassa labour force survey showed that employment increased by 0,2% or 25 000 between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2012 and unemployment declined by 56 000 persons, while the inactive population increased by 149 000. While this is more positive than the Adcorp index, it is still a rather poor performance on the whole. The disparity is likely due to the fact that the majority of jobs, according to Statssa were recorded in the public sector which is not impact the Adcorp index.
KZN is still fairing relatively well, largely due to the fact that it is not affected as much as the inland areas of SA by the mining sector which is performing particularly poorly. This is according to Mike Schussler’s KZN business barometer3. The KZN barometer for May (released April) shows that manufacturing experienced its lowest growth in 8 months (0.8%); supported by evidence of declining exports, which coupled with a struggling financial, property and business services index, will ultimately, have a negative impact on the KZN economy. Currently, the local economy is being kept afloat by consumer spending and, particularly in KZN, parastatal spending.
As usual, however, iLembe seems to still be coasting, as the iLembe business confidence index was up this quarter to a high 6.8 points. Other positive indicators include residential building, car sales and port
3 www.economists.co.za
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
movement. Negative indicators were seen in tourism, commercial and industrial building, and passenger movement through KSIA.
Business Confidence
The business confidence section is made up of the iLembe BCI based on surveys, the national BER BCI which is also based on surveys, the national SACCI BCI which is based on market analysis. In quarter two of 2012, business confidence for iLembe is up again by 1 percentage points to 6.8; the BER BCI fell by 11 points to a level of 41 in the second quarter, and the SACCI BCI is low at 94.9. The decline in business confidence does not bode well for the 2nd half of 2012, however, it seems that iLembe remains largely unscathed by the national negative sentiment for now.
Enterprise iLembe Business Survey
Both the business and tourism surveys are conducted online in the month after the end of each quarter, and run for approximately two weeks. Emails containing the unique link to the online surveys are sent out to businesses that are registered with the iLembe Business Chamber, and businesses on the Urban-Econ database (please contact Urban-Econ on [email protected] if you wish to be added to this database and receive the quarterly survey results). There are no criteria for businesses to take part in the business survey (other than they must be located in iLembe).
Business Confidence Business confidence is represented by the number of respondents that are satisfied with the prevailing business conditions. The Business Confidence Index for Quarter 2 of 2012 is 6.8 which indicates that 68% of respondents are satisfied with the business conditions. This is high when compared with the national BER/RMB BCI which was 4.1 in Quarter 2. The index is up by 1 percentage point from last quarter.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Prevailing Business Conditions Businesses were asked to indicate movement (increase, decrease, no change) in certain indicators within their business in quarter 2, 2012 compared with quarter 1, 2012. The following graph shows that most indicators were unchanged in quarter 2, however, the graph indicates more negative responses than in the previous quarter. Demand for goods has particularly slowed. This is reflected in the tourism survey too where it is felt that people are quite conscious of their spending and are not parting with their money easily.
The largest constraints to business growth at the moment are the cost of rates and property, poor municipal services, and the cost of labour.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Future Expectations Businesses were asked to estimate movement in indicators within their business in the next quarter (3) in comparison to the current quarter (2). The high business confidence is reflected in the fact that few businesses expect conditions to worsen in the next quarter (around 10%), with the majority expecting conditions to remain the same. However, almost 20% of businesses expect the number of staff employed to decrease next quarter.
Business Profiles The majority of businesses this quarter are in the ‘Tourism, Catering and Accommodation’ (21%), construction (19%) and manufacturing (14%) industries. 75% of respondents are part of the iLembe Business Chamber. The graphs below describe the number of full time staff, average annual turnover and location of businesses who responded. The majority of businesses (33%) have less than 5 staff members, with 25% having 11-50 staff. The majority of businesses turn over between R150 000 and R2 million (34%) and R2 million to R10 million (34%) annually. This profile suggests that the majority of respondents are small businesses who reside in greater Ballito.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
SACCI Business Confidence Index
SACCI’s Business Confidence Index (BCI) declined by 0.8 index points to 94.9 by the end of Q2 2012, improved however from the May 2012 low of 92.8 index points. The May 2012 reading is the worst since January 2005. This decline reflects a volatile and precarious economic recovery in the global economy and at home. There were notable positive improvements in the sub-indices in June 2012 indicating an overall positive trajectory. Where only two of the thirteen sub-indices of the BCI were positive m/m in May, eight sub-indices turned positive with one remaining unaffected in June 2012.
Source: South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry – Business Confidence Index (June 2012)
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
The BER/RMB Business Confidence Index
After a marked increase in Q1 2012 from the back drop of Q4 2011, the RMB/BER BCI fell by 11 points to a level of 41 in the second quarter. Business confidence declined in four of the five sectors making up the RMB/BER BCI. Confidence fell sharply in the retail trade and manufacturing sectors. In the case of building contractors, almost the entire first quarter improvement in sentiment was reversed in the second quarter. The sharp drop in business confidence does not bode well for prospective private sector investment in particular and economic growth in general during the second half of 2012.
Source: http://www.ber.ac.za/
Key Findings: Business Confidence Business confidence for iLembe is up this quarter to 6.8 from 6.7 in the previous quarter; The national BER BCI fell by 11 points to 41 (4.1); and The SACCI BCI is down in June to 94.9 points which his historically very low, albeit up from May’s all-time low of 92.8.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Building Plans and New Service Connections for KwaDukuza
The following section looks at the total area of building plans approved, submitted and completed; the number of new water connection made; and the number of new single phase and triple phase electricity connections made over the last year in KwaDukuza. KwaDukuza has been chosen because it represents the majority of activity in iLembe.
Building Plans, KwaDukuza The graph below shows the total value (millions of rand) of building plans (including additions, alterations and deviations) approved, submitted and completed since January 2010. The total value of building plans approved in Quarter 2 was R496 million and the total value submitted was R471. These values are up from the previous quarter and almost reach levels experienced in Q2 2011. The total value of building completed was R113 million which is the lowest since the beginning of 2010.
Source: KwaDukuza Municipality, info for July and September not supplied *total includes additions, alterations and deviations
The table below gives a breakdown of the total area (m2) of approvals, submissions and completions this year. The highest area of approved, submitted and completed plans is for residential building, with relatively smaller spikes in commercial and industrial building. After months of no industrial premises being built, a 2838m2 factory and warehouse was completed in June and a 4511m2 warehouse was approved in the same month. Plans for a bakery and new service stations were submitted in April accounting for a spike in commercial plans submitted, and the bakery of 22 660m2 was approved in June. Residential building has remained consistent.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Table: Total area (m2) of Residential, Commercial and Industrial Building Plans for KwaDukuza APPROVED SUBMITTED COMPLETED Resid Comm Indust Total* Resid Comm Indust Total* Reside Comm Indust Total* ential ercial rial ential ercial rial ntial ercial rial
Jan-11 14 118 12 900 4 355 34 696 5 652 0 0 7 158 3 141 0 0 6 012 Feb-11 7 694 0 1 456 10 730 8 254 185 0 12 274 7 876 0 1 818 10 132 Mar- 6 967 0 0 10 115 16 308 2 201 479 21 325 10 220 0 0 11 855 11 Apr-11 9 579 133 0 11 278 8 189 0 0 10 654 10 111 0 359 10 895 May- 6 340 0 0 7 972 11 329 7 170 395 19 881 6 004 649 912 8 267 11 Jun-11 44 622 1 708 395 48 530 32 304 2 097 0 36 649 41 108 0 0 41 263 Aug-11 1 811 2 097 0 4 752 16 252 1 812 0 19 125 7 628 0 0 8 068 Oct-11 9 330 7934 0 20 557 9 618 0 1955 13 627 8 064 0 0 8 537 Nov-11 12 131 0 0 13 149 23 947 1 496 104 26 829 11 182 0 0 11975 Dec-11 21 502 0 1955 24 222 8 073 624 0 10 306 9 416 2 843 0 12627 Jan-12 9 471 1 093 0 12 228 4 817 0 0 6 317 3 360 0 0 3 598 Feb-12 6 696 0 0 8 463 7 385 0 794 12 513 10 694 2 644 0 13 688 Mar- 13 070 0 0 16 188 17 799 131 704 20 805 9 531 2 270 0 12 368 12 Apr-12 4395 131 0 6661 8632 25434 0 18493 5063 0 0 41115 May- 12 16376 130 0 34727 6663 0 2149 14002 7621 0 0 21094 Jun-12 10444 22660 4511 5157 14330 154 787 7730 6409 469 2838 10482 Source: KwaDukuza Municipality, info for July and September not supplied *total includes additions, alterations and deviations
New water connections, KwaDukuza The graph below describes the number of new water connections made in KwaDukuza since the beginning of 2010. The number of water connections in Q2 2012 was 113, down by 11% from 127 in Q1. The number of water connections made has been low in general over the previous four quarters in comparison to 2010 and early 2011 which suggests a slowdown in construction of residents, commercial and industrial premises.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Source: KwaDukuza Municipality
New electricity connections, KwaDukuza The graphs show the number of new single and three phase electricity connections for KwaDukuza. The number of new single phase connections represents the number of new small residential (3 bedroom house) and low cost housing (including prepaid connections). The graph shows a substantial decrease in single phase connections between quarter 1 2012 and quarter 2 2012. Connections have decreased from 725 to 285 over this time, however this is still high and shows that fairly large residential building projects are taking place. The number of three phase connections represents larger, upmarket urban houses (with air conditioning etc.). Three phase connections are up from 8 connections to 15 connections in this quarter. The number of maximum demand connections (commercial and industrial buildings) is zero for the 6th month in a row.
Source: KwaDukuza Municipality
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Key Findings: Building Plans and new service connections, KwaDukuza While the value of plans submitted and approved spiked in quarter 2, the value of completions is the lowest it has been since Jan 2010; Residential building has been consistent in quarter 2 with previous quarters, however, commercial and industrial approvals and completions both spiked this quarter, albeit with only 2 plans in each category. Water connections have decreased by 11% this quarter to 113, and remain consistently low relative to 2010 and early 2011. The number of single phase electricity connection is down from the previous quarter but continues to be high at 285 connections. There were 15 three phase connections and no maximum demand connections for the 6th month in a row. All evidence points to consistent residential building, especially of small houses (mostly government issue), but very low commercial and industrial building.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Transport Trends
This section looks at trends in road vehicles, airport trends and port movements within iLembe, the province and nationally.
Vehicle Registrations
The figure below details the quarter-to-quarter new additional vehicle registrations per licencing district, while the table below shows the total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district. This is a good reflection on sales and economic activity in these areas.
New vehicle registrations in Stanger are still strongly positive in Q2 2012 (638), although slightly less than Q1 2012 (750). Ndwedwe has the least amount of registered vehicles in the area (422) and Maphumulo (701), while almost double that of Ndwedwe, still falls far shy of Stanger which has over 38 000 vehicle registrations. Registrations in Ndwedwe have been growing at an average quarterly growth of 4.42% over the previous year – this translates to an increase of 60 vehicles over the past year. Stanger is also showing good growth of 1.3% (an increase of 1991 vehicles over the past year). Registrations at Maphumulo have decreased over the last year, with a decrease of 14 vehicles in one year. This is indicative of unroadworthy vehicles or vehicles sold and not replaced.
Source: http://www.enatis.com/ and Urban-Econ
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Table: Total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district
Total Heavy Heavy Light Load Heavy Light Minibus Motorcycle Special Unknown Load Load Vehicle passenger passenger /Motor Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle (GVM mv (12 or MV(less tricycle/Qu (GVM>350 (GVM>350 3500kg or more than 12 adrucycle 0kg,not to 0kg,equp less) persons) persons) draw) to draw) Mapumulo Q1-11 711 8 5 327 7 216 126 7 14 1 Q2-11 715 8 4 336 9 209 126 7 15 1 Q3-11 732 11 3 339 7 225 125 6 16 1 Q4-11 726 14 4 338 5 220 117 9 18 1 Q1-12 720 12 4 345 5 206 124 8 15 1 Q2-12 701 11 3 335 8 208 117 5 13 1 Ndwedwe Q1-11 342 4 1 166 1 141 16 3 8 2 Q2-11 362 4 2 173 1 153 18 2 8 1 Q3-11 387 4 2 182 5 165 17 2 9 1 Q4-11 366 2 2 183 5 151 12 2 8 1 Q1-12 399 2 3 190 3 166 21 3 9 2 Q2-12 422 2 3 195 3 185 21 3 9 1 Stanger Q1-11 36319 1480 1107 10051 144 20385 772 758 1573 49 Q2-11 36812 1452 1125 10187 137 20722 776 779 1579 49 Q3-11 36927 1443 1110 10206 147 20810 777 814 1572 48 Q4-11 37415 1423 1130 10439 144 21035 792 814 1588 50 Q1-12 38165 1435 1171 10522 152 21563 811 869 1590 52 Q2-12 38803 1435 1182 10564 150 22080 837 897 1605 53 Source: http://www.enatis.com/newsite/
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Airport Passenger Movement
King Shaka International Airport lies on the North Coast and is only approximately 13km from Ballito and therefore has a direct impact on the local economy. The graph below describes the number of passengers per quarter for each of the international airports. King Shaka International experiences the least passenger traffic at an average of 400 000 passengers per month out of the three international airports. Passenger numbers have dropped this quarter from 1,199 million to 1,190 million passengers (0.7%). Cape Town international airport’s passenger numbers were also down this quarter, while OR Tambo remained constant. One would hope that passenger numbers would be increasing given the new KSIA, but over the previous year they have decreased by 0.85% while Cape Town and JHB have seen modest growth. Hopefully new flights to major African destinations will grow passenger numbers at KSIA.
Source: www.acsa.co.za
Port Movements
Richards Bay and Durban contribute approximately 60% of all port movements in South Africa. This is economically significant for iLembe because iLembe is situated between these two ports and therefore, the activity of these two ports is a good gage of economic activity in the area in general. The graph below describes the trend in the amount of cargo handled at each of these ports. It is clear that the amount of cargo handled at RB has declined for the second quarter in a row, while the amount of cargo handled at Durban Port has increased substantially this quarter to 22.128 million metric tonnes. Both ports are experiencing higher numbers of cargo movement than this quarter in 2011.
iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Source: PORTS & SHIPS www.ports.co.za
The table below gives comparative figures for quarter 2, 2012. The figures in red show a decrease from the previous quarter and the figures in green show an increase. This quarter Richards Bay has received less vessels than the previous quarter, while Durban has received a higher number than the previous quarter. South Africa, overall is showing positive growth. The volumes in general are showing good year on year growth.
Table: Port movements
Total Cargo Total Number of Gross Tonnage of Handled (metric Vessels Vessels tonnes, thousands)* Richards Bay Q1-11 13 698 454 15 708 Q2-11 11 793 446 14 464 Q3-11 21 936 451 16 366 Q4-11 25 493 449 18 074 Q1-12 23 223 436 17 057 Q2-12 21 434 408 16 694 Durban Q1-11 19 470 1 057 31 822 Q2-11 19 916 1 108 32 579 Q3-11 21 230 1 092 31 452 Q4-11 20 799 1 016 29 766 Q1-12 16 160 941 29 896 Q2-12 22 128 1 021 30 766 South Africa Q1-11 64 478 2 827 79 165 Q2-11 63 423 3 292 81 905 Q3-11 65 650 3 260 83 016 Q4-11 71 061 2 867 84 157 Q1-12 63 338 2 693 81 905 Q2-12 69 721 3 026 81 399 Source: PORTS & SHIPS www.ports.co.za *As is customary the figures shown in this table reflect an adjustment on the overall tonnage to include containers by weight for which PORTS & SHIPS estimates an adjustment of 13,5 tonnes per TEU to reflect tonnages. This figure is on the conservative
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
side with 14 tonnes or even more perhaps being a more realistic figure, particularly in view of the increasing quantity of bulk cargo which is now being handled in containers.
Key Findings: Transport Trends Vehicle numbers continue to grow in Stanger and Ndwedwe, but are sluggish in Maphumulo where car registrations are declining quarter on quarter. Passenger movement through KSIA dropped this quarter again by 0.7% and declined year on year by 0.85%. The amount of cargo handled at RB has declined for the second quarter in a row, while the amount of cargo handled at Durban Port has increased substantially this quarter to 22.128 million metric tonnes. The volumes across SA, including Durban and RB, are showing good year on year growth.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Tourism Trends This section discusses the results from the tourism quarterly survey conducted by Enterprise iLembe; and the number of visitors to the Sangweni Information Centre in Ballito this quarter.
Tourism Survey
The tourism confidence survey is conducted online in the month after the end of each quarter, and is run for approximately two weeks. Emails containing the unique link to the online surveys are sent out to tourism places of accommodation on the Urban-Econ database (please contact Urban-Econ on 031 202 9673 if you wish to be added to this database and receive the quarterly survey results).
Tourism Business Confidence Similarly to the business survey, business confidence for tourism in iLembe is represented by the number of respondents that are satisfied with the prevailing tourism conditions. After increasingly steadily to 5.5 in Quarter 1 2012, tourism business confidence is on the decline this quarter. It has decreased by 5 percentage points to 5 this quarter which means that exactly half of all tourism service providers are satisfied with the prevailing conditions. With quarter 3 being a quiet month for tourism, one would expect business confidence to decline below the 50% mark next quarter.
Prevailing Business Conditions (Tourism) The graph below shows the trend for demand for tourism services over the previous year, where 1 equals the lowest demand and 5 equals the highest demand. It is clear that both the number of 4s and 5s (which represent high demand) have declined steadily from Q4 2011 to Q2 2012. This is partly seasonal but partly due to poor tourism conditions as one will see below when analysing occupancy trends. Conversely, the
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
number of 2s and 1s (representing low demand) has increased from last quarter. The majority of respondents (40%) say that the demand level for quarter 2 was medium.
The graph below describes occupancy as compared to the previous quarter and the previous year. 46% of respondents say that occupancy rates have decreased this quarter when compared to the previous quarter, 31% say that they have stayed the same and only 23% say that they have increased. A higher percentage of respondents (56%) say that occupancy has decreased when compared to this time last year. This is the fourth quarter in a row where occupancy levels are perceived to be lower than the previous year which is a concerning trend.
46% of respondents say that occupancy has been between 20 and 40% this quarter, and 23% say that it has been between 41 and 60%.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Future Expectations (Tourism) 23% of respondents expect bookings to increase over the next quarter (Q3 2012), down from 45% in the previous quarter. The majority (50%) expect bookings to stay the same, whereas 27% expect them to decrease.
Number of tourists visiting Sangweni Tourism Information Centre, 2011
The number of people who make any type of query at the Sangweni Tourism Information Office in Ballito is recorded monthly and gives an indication of the number of new tourists visiting Ballito. This does not represent actual figures for the North Coast but gives a helpful indication of trends based on a segment of tourists in the North Coast.
The number of foreign visitors to the Sangweni tourism information centre has decreased this quarter by 57% to 184 visitors, and the number of local visitors has decreased by 32% to 425 visitors. The graph shows a clear downward trend which supports the tourism survey results in the perception that tourism numbers are declining year on year.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Source: Sangweni Tourism Information Centre
Key Findings: Tourism Tourism confidence has declined for the first time in quarter 2 to 5, and future expectations show that most tourism service providers expect bookings to remain the same next quarter. Four the fourth quarter in a row the majority of service providers have stated that occupancy has been less than the same time the previous year which shows a constant decline in occupancy levels. The number of foreign visitors to the Sangweni tourism information centre has decreased this quarter by 57% to 184 visitors, and the number of local visitors has decreased by 32% to 425 visitors. The graph shows a clear downward trend which supports the tourism survey results in the perception that tourism numbers are declining year on year.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Employment Indices for South Africa
The following employment indices and indicators are drawn from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey released by StatsSA, and the Adcorp Employment Index which is released by Adcorp monthly. These are for South Africa and KZN as quarterly data is not available for iLembe as yet.
Quarterly Labour Force Survey
The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) is a household-based sample survey conducted by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). It collects data on the labour market activities of individuals aged 15 years and above who live in South Africa.
Employment increased by 0,2% or 25 000 between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2012 and unemployment declined by 56 000 persons, while the inactive population increased by 149 000. A decrease in the number of unemployed persons, coupled with an increase in both employment and inactivity resulted in the decrease in the unemployment rate (down by 0,3 of a percentage point) to 24,9%. Between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2012, formal sector employment increased by 62 000 jobs while informal sector employment decreased by 21 000 jobs. The growth in formal sector jobs was mainly driven by Community & social services (183 000) industry. The biggest decrease in the unemployment rate was observed in Limpopo (1,7 percentage points), Mpumalanga (1,4 percentage points) and KwaZulu-Natal (0,7 of a percentage point).
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Source: Statistics South Africa, Quarterly Labour Force Survey, Quarter 2, 2012
Adcorp Employment Index
Employment in South Africa fell sharply at an annualised rate of 2.0% in June, following an even higher decline in May of 3.1%. Job losses in June amounted to 31 781, bringing the total job losses for the past two months to 82 520. Adcorp, the JSE-listed human capital management group, found that most sectors apart from wholesale and retail trade (+2.1%), all occupations except managers (+2.2%) and professionals (+3.3%) reported declines. All employment categories except the informal sector reported a decline. The sharpest declines were recorded in: Agriculture (- 12,7%); Transport (- 8.6%); Mining (-8.1%); Plant and equipment (-4.7%); and Construction (-4.7%) Adcorp’s index of informal sector employment rose 0.2%, representing the 12th consecutive monthly improvement.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Key Findings: Employment Employment increased by 0,2% or 25 000 between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2012 and unemployment declined by 56 000 persons, while the inactive population increased by 149 000. The growth in formal sector jobs was mainly driven by Community & social services (183 000) industry. KZN experienced a 0.7% decline in the unemployment rate. According to Adcorp, employment in South Africa fell sharply at an annualised rate of 2.0% in June, following an even higher decline in May of 3.1%. Job losses in June amounted to 31 781, bringing the total job losses for the past two months to 82 520. The hardest hit sectors were agriculture, transport and mining.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Enterprise iLembe Business Expansion & Retention Survey
The B, E&R survey was run by Enterprise iLembe in partnership with the iLembe Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Tourism over June and July 2011 in Ballito. Funding was provided by the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC). The survey’s intention was to capture what it is like to be in business in the Ballito area and record ideas, concerns, priorities and obstacles to economic growth. Only a selection of the report has been reproduced here.
61 businesses were surveyed, majority were in the Business Park area. Businesses surveyed covered a variety of activities; over 25% are in the finance, insurance, property or business services, 23% are in wholesale retail or motor trade while construction and building formed nearly 20% of the total. Almost all businesses are locally owned. 36% of businesses have been operating for 1-5 years, 31% for 6-10 years, 21% longer than 10years and 12% less than one year. Local customers are the main source of sales (41%), 31% focus on KZN, while 28% do business throughout South Africa. None see international customers as their primary target. 60% purchase the bulk of their supplies from within KZN and 22% from other parts of South Africa. Relatively few (17%) can find supplies locally. Majority of business (46%) have increased staff numbers of the last two years and plan to increase staff numbers over the next two years (64%). A large majority of the skills in demand are sales and marketing skills; as well as business and financial management skills.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
The following graph describes the advantages and disadvantages to locating business in Ballito (advantages in blue and disadvantages in purple).
Graph: Advantages and disadvantages to locating business in Ballito
Source: iLembe B,E&R Programme, Results of the Ballito Business Survey, July 2011
Majority of business owners (74%) see quality of life as a key advantage to doing business in Ballito. Other advantages include the image of the area (67%), access to customers (51%) and the local market (41%). The most frequently mentioned disadvantage was the unreliability of electricity supply (49%). Other disadvantages include the lack of municipal support (43%), poor public transport (41%) and expensive rates and services (38%).
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph: Sales over two years
Source: iLembe B,E&R Programme, Results of the Ballito Business Survey, July 2011
The graph shows that 63% of businesses say that sales have increased over the last two years. 85% expect sales to increase which shows that business confidence in Ballito is good. 80% of businesses have not considered selling, moving or closing in the last two years which also shows high business confidence.
Business opportunities lie in the fact that there are products in demand locally that are not produced locally such as electrical repairs, quality furniture, IT and computer maintenance, the services of mechanical engineering workshops, packaging, panel beaters, power tools, printing including size A0, general motor vehicle spares, speciality food, wholesale dry goods as well as bakery and supermarket supplies. The following products and services are not purchased locally for price reasons: wholesale cement, cool-drinks, chocolate, dairy products, fish and meat, paper and stationary.
When asked what new businesses would succeed in Ballito, suggestions included: artists, authors, electronic traders, cinema, gym, laundry, printers, security equipment supplier and an arts and crafts heritage market in Umhlali, as well as businesses relating to above mentioned products. Restaurants and fast food outlets were mentioned several times.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph: Main constraints to expansion
Source: iLembe B,E&R Programme, Results of the Ballito Business Survey, July 2011
43% of businesses consider the small size of the local market the main constraint to expansion. Other constraints include availability of finance (32%), too much competition and problems relating to the municipality (28%). These largely included the poor supply of electricity.
Key Findings: Business Retention and Expansion Survey Majority of business owners (74%) see quality of life as a key advantage to doing business in Ballito. The most frequently mentioned disadvantage was the unreliability of electricity supply (49%). 43% of businesses consider the small size of the local market the main constraint to expansion. Business opportunities lie in the fact that there are products in demand locally that are not produced locally
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
SECTION TWO: ILEMBE ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND ANALYSIS (BASE DATA) Most socio-economic data is not available on a quarterly basis at a District and Local Municipal level. This section comprises of the most recent annual economic intelligence and statistical analysis available for iLembe and its LMs. It is broken down into various sub-sections, which include a demographic profile; a socio- economic profile; education, employment and skills; and economic activity. The majority of data is for 2011, however, the following indicators have not yet been updated and are for 2010 only: Education Data for all socio-economic indicators (this includes water, electricity, hygiene and type of dwelling)
Demographic Profile
Population and Households
The iLembe District has experienced an average yearly growth rate of -0.21% in population since 2005, bringing the population total in 2011 to approximately 564,088 people. The total number of households in iLembe is 134,514. This figure has been declining by 0.34% over the previous five years.
Table 2: Population and Households (2011) Population Households
Number Average Yearly Number Average yearly Growth Rate Growth Rate (2006 – 2011) (2006 – 2011) iLembe 564 088 -0.21% 134 515 -0.34% Mandeni Local Municipality 132 331 0.12% 36 667 1.18% KwaDukuza Local Municipality 172 915 0.75% 46 969 -0.39% Ndwedwe Local Municipality 143 914 -1.06% 29 375 -1.39% Maphumulo Local Municipality 114 929 -0.91% 21 504 -1.24%
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)
The graph below shows the population trends for each of local municipalities since 2001. The graph shows that the total population and number of households have been declining in Ndwedwe and Maphumulo Local Municipalities, whereas the total population has been increasing in Mandeni and KwaDukuza Local Municipalities. This is consistent with provincial and national trends which indicate that an increasing proportion of the population previously housed in rural areas are migrating to urban areas in search of employment and other opportunities. This is expected given that KwaDukuza and Mandeni house much of the formal economic activity in the region.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph 1: Population trend for each of the local municipalities, 2001-2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)
It should be noted that, given that it has been 10years since the last census was conducted, population figures are a rough estimate. Figures released by stats SA show a higher estimate of population in iLembe. The following table represents this higher estimate.
Table 3 Higher estimate of iLembe’s population based on StatsSA information
Municipal Census 1996 Census 2001 DWAF 2004 Census 2006 Backlog Area Study 2007
Mandeni 111 909 128 669 137 129 138 736 131 830
KwaDukuza 131 091 158 582 169 022 179 963 252 053
Ndwedwe 167 404 152 495 162 452 134 754 208 447
Maphumulo 124 703 120 642 128 549 115 045 212 909 iLembe 535 107 560 388 597 152 568 498 805 239
Source: iLembe IDP 2011
Population Groups
The graph below displays the split of the population of the district and local municipalities by population group. For the district and all local municipalities besides KwaDukuza, Africans comprise over 90% of the total population, with KwaDukuza having the largest Asian population (predominately Indian) of 18.3%. KwaDukuza also contributes the largest portion of Whites (5.3%) of which a large numbers reside in the urban area of Ballito. Maphumulo comprises the largest African population (99.9%). In terms of average yearly growth rates,
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
the Black and Asian populations declined slightly over the previous 5 years, whereas the coloured and white populations experienced a positive growth rate.
Graph 1 Racial Profile for 2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)
Gender Profile
The graph below displays the gender distribution of the district and local populations. The gender split is fairly equal for most of the municipalities besides Maphumulo, which comprises 44.3% of males and 55.7% of females.
Graph 2 Gender Profile 2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Age Profile
The graph below provides an indication of the age distribution within the district. From the graph it is clear that Maphumulo has a much greater percentage of the population under the age of 19 years than the rest of iLembe. 65% of iLembe is under 29 years old, just over 30% is between the ages of 30 and 65, and only 4.5% is over 65 years old. The composition has not changed significantly since 2010 and is standard for KwaZulu- Natal.
Graph 3 Age Distribution for 2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)
Education Profile (2010)
As the table shows, 22% of all people in Percentage of people age 25+ iLembe KZN iLembe above the age of 25 years have no with the following level of schooling. This is 3% higher than the rest of schooling KZN. Only 12% have matric and 5% have No Schooling 22% 18% some form of tertiary education. These Grade 12 12% 19% percentages are both lower than the average Tertiary 5% 7% for KZN.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
HIV/AIDS Deaths
The final demographic indicator is that of HIV positive individuals and AIDS Deaths recorded. The graph below displays these trends. In 2011, Mandeni had the highest incidence of HIV with almost 20% of the population being infected by the virus, while 16.4%of the district population were infected (down from 16.8% in 2010). This is 1% higher than the average for the province. The number of HIV infections increased by 0.7% in 2011.
Graph 4 HIV Positive and AIDS deaths in 2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)
Key Findings: Demographic Profile Out-migration of residents from Ndwedwe and Maphumulo to areas with urban-centres such as KwaDukuza and Mandeni; The population and number of households have been decreasing on average 0.2% and 0.3% respectively over the previous 5 years. 34% of the population is under the age of 15 years, 62% of the iLembe population falls within the working age bracket (15 – 64 years), and only 5% is over the age of 65 years. In 2011, Mandeni had the highest incidence of HIV with almost 20% of the population being infected by the virus, while 16.4%of the district population were infected (down from 16.8% in 2010).
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Socio-Economic Indicators (2010)
Data for 2011 for socio-economic indicators is not yet available. Four socio-economic indicators are assessed before moving onto an analysis of growth indicators. The indicators analysed below are used as a measure of growth of social infrastructure such electricity, access to water, type of housing and type of toilets.
Energy used for lighting
Electricity is the major source of energy for lighting in the district and both the Mandeni and KwaDukuza local municipalities, accounting for 63%, 78%, and 86% of total energy sources respectively. Ndwedwe and Maphumulo are however both lagging behind the district trend with only 28% and 35% of the population having access to electricity respectively, although growth trends indicate that Maphumulo has experienced a growth in electricity usage. These households are predominately using candles as their main source of energy.
Graph 5 Energy used for lighting (2010)
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2010)
Type of toilet
The type of toilet used is displayed in graph 6 below. The percentage of people using flush or chemical toilets is still relatively low for all municipalities, with an average of 28% for iLembe. This trend is higher for both Mandeni and KwaDukuza (35% and 39% respectively), with Ndwedwe only achieving a rate of 16% and
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Maphumulo a very low rate of 7%. The largest source of toilet facility for all municipalities are pit latrine toilets, with this accounting 70% in Maphumulo, and 58% for the entire district.
Graph 6 Type of Toilet 2010
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2010)
Source of Water
Graph 7 displays the distribution of access to water in iLembe. KwaDukuza has the highest occurrence of water within the dwelling of 28% of the population, with the district average of almost 17% of the population. Again, Ndwedwe and Maphumulo are lagging behind with only 5% of their respective populations having access to water within their dwelling. A large portion of the district population (21%) still use a dam, river, stream or spring for water, with the largest contributing local municipalities being Ndwedwe (38%) and Maphumulo (57%).
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph 7 Source of Water in 2010
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2010)
Type of Dwelling
The graph below displays the final socio-economic indicator, namely the type of dwelling occupied by the respective populations. 38% of the district population live in a brick structure on a separate stand, i.e. a formal house structure. The largest contributor to this is KwaDukuza (50% of the population) and Mandeni (42% of the population), with Ndwedwe and Maphumulo only contributing 26% and 21% respectively. About 32% of the district population lived in a traditional dwelling made from traditional materials, of which Ndwedwe and Maphumulo were the largest contributing populations (49.7% and 69.3% respectively). About 9% of the iLembe population lived in an informal dwelling or shack, with contribution from 15.1% of the Mandeni population, and 12.4% of the KwaDukuza population. This could be explained by the negative population growth rates for Ndwedwe and Maphumulo, where people have moved into informal dwellings in KwaDukuza and Mandeni in search of employment.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph 8 Type of Dwelling in 2010
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2010)
Key Findings: Socio-Economic Indicators (2010)
Ndwedwe and Maphumulo are lagging behind the district with regards access to electricity; Less than 28% of the district population have access to a flush or chemical toilet;
Less than 17% of households have access to water inside their dwelling; 10% of the district population live in informal settlements.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Employment Indicators
The graph below provides a picture of the current employment environment in the district and local municipalities. The majority of the working age population and employment opportunities exist in KwaDukuza LM. Unfortunately, in 2011 the number employed people decreased by 0.5%, the number of unemployed people increased by 4.3% and the number of not economically active people increased by 3.3%. It seems that employment in iLembe is still being negatively impacted by the global economic downturn, whereas the rest of KZN, on average, has shown increases in employment, and decreases in unemployment.
Graph 9 Employment Status in 2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)
The table below shows the unemployment rates for iLembe and the local municipalities. iLembe has an unemployment rate of 21.3% which is average for the province and the country, however, the labour force participation rate is low at 37% (compared to 42% for KZN) which suggest a high number of economically inactive persons contributing to a lower unemployment rate. KwaDukuza has the lowest unemployment rate at 14% and Ndwedwe has the highest unemployment rate at 31%.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Table 4 Unemployment rate, 2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)
The graph below shows the percentage contribution of employment by industry for iLembe and each of the LMs. The majority of employment in iLembe is in the wholesale, retail and trade industry (21%), community services (17%) and manufacturing industry (17%). The majority of employment in Ndwedwe is in agriculture, the majority of employment in Mandeni is in manufacturing, employment in Maphumulo is being sustained by government employment, and employment in KwaDukuza is most diversified across all sectors.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph 2: Employment contribution by industry and local municipality, 2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)
The graph below shows the 10 year employment trend for iLembe. Agriculture has gone from the sector that employs the most people, to the sector that employs the 6th most people. Both the manufacturing and agricultural sectors have declined over the previous 5 years by 4 100 and 17 400 jobs respectively. The majority of job gains over the previous 5 years were in the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors and the government and community services sectors.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph 10: Employment by Sector for iLembe, 2001-2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)
The graph below displays the breakdown of formal employment into the three skills categories. Between 14% and 16% of the formally employed in all municipalities are highly skilled, with the exception of Maphumulo which has 24% of its employment as highly skilled. This increase is mainly in government services, but also transport and communications. The overall contribution of highly skilled persons in iLembe has increased by 4% over the previous year, however, it is still lower than the average for KZN of 18%. Just over 39% of the formally employed district population are skilled persons, and 45.7% are semi and unskilled.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph 11: Formal Employment by Skill Level in 2011
Source: Urban-Econ Estimates based on Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)
The Informal Economy
South Africa’s informal sector is the unofficial part of the economy whereby many people are forced to eke out a meagre economic existence through lack of formal job opportunities. This sector of the economy, which evades income taxes and circumvents labour laws, now represents over 30% of SA’S potential workforce and is the fastest growing sector.
The graph below displays the distribution of formal and informally employed persons. In iLembe, about 23% of the working age population are informally employed, while approximately 77% are formally employed. Within the district, all the local municipalities display a similar trend, however with only 16% informal employment displayed in Maphumulo.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph 12: Formal and Informal Employment in 2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)
The informal economy in iLembe is heterogenic, ranging from average street traders and shebeen owners to child carers and domestic workers. It is often characterised by its flexibility, creativity, resilience to absorb shocks, and its ability to adapt to changing external environments. The largest informal economy exists in KwaDukuza. The following table describes the type of informal activities that occur in KwaDukuza and their estimated size.
Table 5 Types of Informal Activities in KwaDukuza
Types of informal Activities Estimated Number
Taxi and Minibus operators 200 Tourism (B&B, Tour guides) 10 Informal Builders 500 Domestic Workers 50 000 Agriculture (urban subsistence) 60 Light industries (tailors, Dressmakers and hatters, Embroiderers and related workers, 2000 plumbers, welders)
Informal technicians (shoe, watch, car, furniture, etc. repairers ) 2000
Street traders Numbers Barbers and Hairdressers 1000
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Fruit sellers 2000 Craft and bead sellers 100 Cardboard collectors 40 Live chicken sellers 50 Millie cookers 50 Newspaper vendors 5 Second hand clothes dealers 20 Tavern and shebeen operators 2000 Spaza shop owners 2000 Street food vendors 1000 Traditional Medicine practitioners and Muthi traders 150 Mr. Phone dealers 50
Source: KwaDukuza Business Development Unit, Urban-Econ Interviews
Key Findings: Employment Indicators In KwaDukuza in 2011 the number employed people decreased by 0.5%, the number of unemployed people increased by 4.3% and the number of not economically active people increased by 3.3%. It seems that employment in iLembe is still being negatively impacted by the global economic downturn, whereas the rest of KZN, on average, has shown increases in employment, and decreases in unemployment; iLembe has an unemployment rate of 21.3% which is average for the province and the country, however, the labour force participation rate is low at 37% (compared to 42% for KZN); The majority of employment in iLembe is in the wholesale, retail and trade industry (21%), community services (17%) and manufacturing industry (17%); Both the manufacturing and agricultural sectors have declined over the previous 5 years by 4 100 and 17 400 jobs respectively; The overall contribution of highly skilled persons in iLembe has increased by 4% over the previous year.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Production, Expenditure and Investment
This section covers a variety of economic indicators and provides an understanding of the economic status of iLembe, as well as its leading and lagging industries.
Gross Geographic Product
In 2011 iLembe’s GVA (an indicator of gross geographic produce) was R16 011 billion. This accounts for 3.8% of KZN’s GGP making iLembe the 7th highest contributor to KZN’s GDP out of 11 districts and one metro. iLembe’s GDP grew by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, while KZN’s total GDP grew by 3.1%, up from 3% in these same years. The majority of growth is being experienced in the tertiary sector which grew by almost 5% in 2011. The secondary sector grew by 0.6%, while the primary sector contracted by 0.8%.
Graph 3: GVA growth trend by 3 sectors, iLembe, 2001-2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)
The graph below displays the contribution of each industry to total GGP in 2011. For the first year, the most significant sector within the district is ‘finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector’, contributing 18.4% to total GGP. This sector accounts for 19% of the Mandeni economy, 30% of the KwaDukuza economy, and 18% of the Ndwedwe economy, with manufacturing in Maphumulo only contributing 9%. The ‘finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector’ has grown by 5.5% over the previous 5 years, despite the recession.
Manufacturing is the next highest contributor, contributing 18.2% to total GGP in the district. Manufacturing accounts for 23% of Mandeni’s economy, 30% of KwaDukuza’s economy, 23% of Ndwedwe’s economy and
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
15% of Maphumulo’s economy. Manufacturing grew over the previous year by 0.6%, but has declined over the previous 5 years by 0.4% (due to the recession in 2008).
Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation contributed the third highest to GDP with 16%, general government contributed 14%, transport, storage and communication contributed 12%, and community services contributed 7%. Agriculture, forestry and fishing now only contribute 4.5% to iLembe’s GDP, although it is the most significant sector in Maphumulo.
Graph 13 Goss Geographic Product for 2011, percentage contribution per 9 sectors
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)
Income and Expenditure
Average annual income per household for iLembe in 2011 was R94 576 (R7 881 per month) which is lower than the previous year. Total household income for 2011 in iLembe was estimated at R12 722 billion, of which 93% was used as household expenditure. Of total income, remuneration accounted for 67% and whole unearned income accounted for 33% of total income which suggests that a third of households in the district
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are surviving on government grants and remittance. Mandeni and KwaDukuza accounted for 77% of total remuneration in the district which again shows the spatial economic dynamics of the district.
The graph below shows the trend in income for iLembe over the previous 10 years. It is evident that current income has increased by 2 billion over the previous 10 years, however, the majority of this increase, especially over the previous 5 years, has been due to increases in unearned income. Unearned income increased by 4.3% over the previous 5 years, and 9.6% from 2010 to 2011, while remuneration only increased by 1.6% and 1.5% in these same years.
Graph 4: Income, remuneration and unearned income trends for iLembe, 2001-2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)
The graph below displays the contribution of expenditure across the four categories of expenditure for each municipality. Durable goods comprised about 7.6% - 9.2% of total expenditure within all of the municipalities, with semi-durable goods comprising between 8% - 12.4% of total expenditure. The most significant categories of expenditure are non-durable goods and services, which account for between 78% - 84% of total expenditure. Non-durable goods expenditure was the highest in Ndwedwe (51% of expenditure), while services contributed 40% to expenditure in Mandeni, 47% in KwaDukuza, and almost 36% in Maphumulo. The proportion of expenditure on durable and semi-durable goods has decreased substantially over the previous year which is expected considering that income has reduced over this same period.
Graph 14 Distribution of Expenditure in 2011
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)
The graph below provides a detailed breakdown of the sub-categories within each main category as a percentage of total expenditure. Food, beverages and tobacco is the largest expenditure category contributing 26.6% to total expenditure in iLembe, and as high as 32% of total expenditure in Ndwedwe. Transport and communication contributed 8.6% to total expenditure in iLembe, while rental contributed 10.5% in the district and Clothing and footwear contributed 5.4% to total expenditure in the district.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph 15 Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Sub-Categories, 2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)
Domestic Fixed Capital Investment
A final indicator of economic activity that is assessed is domestic fixed capital investment by type and sector. R1 702 billion was invested into capital in iLembe in 2011, with 811 billion of that being in KwaDukuza. The graph below shows that investment is mainly being directed into machinery and other equipment which is normal for an economy with a large agricultural and/or manufacturing sector. Investment into this category is decreasing, however, along with the agricultural and manufacturing industries and is being replaced by investment into building and construction works as well as transport equipment.
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph 5: Domestic Fixed Investment, 2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)
The graph below displays the breakdown of capital investment into the various sectors within iLembe. It is clear that domestic fixed investment in iLembe has been predominately channelled into the manufacturing (29%), transport, storage and communications (16.5%), as well as finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors (15.6%). The most impressive sector over all is the transport, storage and communications sector which, is not only the second highest contributing sector to total investment (16.5%), but is growing at 12.4% on average annually in real terms.
However, within the local municipalities the situation varies according to the comparative advantages of that municipality. 24% of investment within Mandeni was in the finance sector, 41% into manufacturing, while investment into transport and storage contributed just over 12%. Within KwaDukuza 10% of investment was into agriculture, 30.5% into manufacturing, 15% into transport and storage and 15% into finance. Investment in Ndwedwe was more evenly distributed between the sectors, with agriculture (19%), manufacturing (15%), electricity, gas and water (18%), transport and storage (14%) and general government (14%) all contributing substantially. In Maphumulo, investment was dominated by the transport, storage and communication sector (43.6%) and the general government sector (almost 25%).
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Graph 16: Domestic Fixed Capital Investment per Industry in 2011
Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Key Findings: Production, Expenditure and Investment iLembe’s GDP grew by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, while KZN’s total GDP grew by 3.1%, up from 3% in these same years; For the first year, the most significant sector within the district is ‘finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector’, contributing 18.4% to total GGP; Of total income, remuneration accounted for 67% and whole unearned income accounted for 33% of total income which suggests that a third of households in the district are surviving on government grants and remittance; The most significant categories of expenditure are non-durable goods and services, which account for between 78% - 84% of total expenditure; Food, beverages and tobacco is the largest expenditure category contributing 26.6% to total expenditure in iLembe, and as high as 32% of total expenditure in Ndwedwe; R1 702 billion was invested into capital in iLembe in 2011, with 811 billion of that being in KwaDukuza; and The most impressive sector with regard to domestic fixed investment is the transport, storage and communications sector which, is not only the second highest contributing sector to total investment (16.5%), but is growing at 12.4% on average annually in real terms.
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ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS The tables below display both the nominal and percentage contribution values for each of the indicators presented in the report. Where indicators are not up to date for 2011 this is indicated.
A1.1 Population and Households
Population Households Number % growth Number % growth iLembe 564 088 0.13% 134 515 -0.34% Mandeni Local Municipality 132 331 0.49% 36 667 1.18% KwaDukuza Local Municipality 172 915 1.11% 46 969 -0.39% Ndwedwe Local Municipality 143 914 -0.81% 29 375 -1.39% Maphumulo Local Municipality 114 929 -0.43% 21 504 -1.24%
A1.2 Racial Profile
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Black 511 707 123 858 131 770 141 309 114 771 Coloured 2 655 917 1 505 160 73 Asian 37 611 5 764 30 403 1 395 49 White 12 114 1 792 9 238 1 049 34 KwaDukuza Maphumulo Percentage Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local iLembe Local Local Contribution Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Black 90.7% 93.6% 76.2% 98.2% 99.9% Coloured 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% Asian 6.7% 4.4% 17.6% 1.0% 0.0% White 2.1% 1.4% 5.3% 0.7% 0.0%
A1.3 HIV and AIDS
KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local Number iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Population 564 088 132 331 172 915 143 914 114 929 92 650 25 061 26 890 24 179 16 520 HIV Positive AIDS Deaths 7 127 1 893 2 027 1 887 1 320
KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality 16.4% 18.9% 15.6% 16.8% 14.4% HIV Positive
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1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% AIDS Deaths
A1.4 Gender Profile
KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local Number iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality 269 836 62 151 84 353 72 434 50 897 Male 294 253 70 180 88 561 71 480 64 031 Female 564 088 132 331 172 915 143 914 114 929 Total
KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality 47.8% 47.0% 48.8% 50.3% 44.3% Male Female 52.2% 53.0% 51.2% 49.7% 55.7%
A1.5 Age Profile
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Number iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality 00-04 Year(s) 63 101 13 720 19 001 15 312 15 068 62 833 13 460 18 194 16 153 15 027 05-09 Year(s) 10-14 Year(s) 63 847 14 415 15 157 17 104 17 171 63 350 13 794 17 116 17 294 15 146 15-19 Year(s) 20-24 Year(s) 57 489 14 396 19 446 13 861 9 786 54 427 15 240 16 928 14 158 8 100 25-29 Year(s) 30-34 Year(s) 43 533 12 808 15 482 9 691 5 552 34 161 9 473 11 566 7 990 5 132 35-39 Year(s) 40-44 Year(s) 23 366 5 834 8 440 5 691 3 400 21 385 4 409 8 142 5 594 3 240 45-49 Year(s) 50-54 Year(s) 19 603 4 036 6 178 5 313 4 075 17 035 3 590 5 458 3 871 4 116 55-59 Year(s) 60-64 Year(s) 14 160 2 826 4 978 3 755 2 602 9 926 1 989 2 513 3 118 2 306 65-69 Year(s) 70-74 Year(s) 8 015 1 107 1 875 2 729 2 304 4 497 877 1 202 1 277 1 141 75-79 Year(s) 80+ Year(s) 3 361 358 1 238 1 002 763 564 088 132 331 172 915 143 914 114 929 Total Percentage Mandeni Local KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Local Maphumulo iLembe Contribution Municipality Local Municipality Local
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KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Number iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality 11.2% 10.4% 11.0% 10.6% 13.1% 00-04 Year(s) 11.1% 10.2% 10.5% 11.2% 13.1% 05-09 Year(s) 11.3% 10.9% 8.8% 11.9% 14.9% 10-14 Year(s) 11.2% 10.4% 9.9% 12.0% 13.2% 15-19 Year(s) 10.2% 10.9% 11.2% 9.6% 8.5% 20-24 Year(s) 9.6% 11.5% 9.8% 9.8% 7.0% 25-29 Year(s) 7.7% 9.7% 9.0% 6.7% 4.8% 30-34 Year(s) 6.1% 7.2% 6.7% 5.6% 4.5% 35-39 Year(s) 40-44 Year(s) 4.1% 4.4% 4.9% 4.0% 3.0% 3.8% 3.3% 4.7% 3.9% 2.8% 45-49 Year(s) 50-54 Year(s) 3.5% 3.1% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.7% 3.2% 2.7% 3.6% 55-59 Year(s) 60-64 Year(s) 2.5% 2.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 2.2% 2.0% 65-69 Year(s) 70-74 Year(s) 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 75-79 Year(s) 80+ Year(s) 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
A1.6 Energy used for Lighting (2010)
KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local Number iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality 2,650 228 341 410 1,671 Solar/other/unspecified Electricity 84,717 28,458 40,432 8,354 7,473 598 187 122 196 93 Gas Paraffin 2,704 512 818 1,131 243 43,606 7,099 5,060 19,451 11,997 Candles Total 134,275 36,483 46,774 29,543 21,476
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Percentage contribution iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Solar/other/unspecified 2.0% 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 7.8% 63.1% 78.0% 86.4% 28.3% 34.8% Electricity Gas 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 3.8% 1.1% Paraffin Candles 32.5% 19.5% 10.8% 65.8% 55.9%
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A1.7 Type of Toilet (2010)
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Number iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Flush or chemical toilet 37,225 12,784 18,125 4,742 1,574 Pit latrine 73,162 20,477 20,337 17,173 15,174 Bucket latrine 1,380 213 611 318 237 None of the above 21,424 2,716 7,219 7,116 4,374 Unspecified/Dummy 1,085 293 481 194 117 Total 134,275 36,483 46,774 29,543 21,476
Mandeni Local KwaDukuza Local Ndwedwe Local Maphumulo Local Percentage iLembe Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Flush or chemical toilet 27.7% 35.0% 38.8% 16.0% 7.3% Pit latrine 54.5% 56.1% 43.5% 58.1% 70.7% Bucket latrine 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% None of the above 16.0% 7.4% 15.4% 24.1% 20.4% Unspecified/Dummy 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5%
A1.8 Water (2010)
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Number iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Piped water inside dwelling 22,713 7,061 12,995 1,510 1,147 Piped water inside yard 29,136 10,857 8,310 8,303 1,666 Piped water on community stand: distance less than 200m. from 28,672 7,685 15,266 3,266 2,454 dwelling Piped water on community stand: distance greater than 200m. from 14,433 4,596 6,182 2,225 1,430 dwell Borehole/rain-water tank/well 8,416 2,771 799 2,629 2,217 Dam/river/stream/spring 28,233 3,202 1,553 11,151 12,326 Water-carrier/tanker/Water 1,073 97 759 170 48 vendor Other/Unspecified/Dummy 1,599 214 910 288 187 Total 134,275 36,483 46,774 29,543 21,476
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality
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Piped water inside dwelling 16.9% 19.4% 27.8% 5.1% 5.3% Piped water inside yard 21.7% 29.8% 17.8% 28.1% 7.8% Piped water on community stand: distance less than 200m. from 21.4% 21.1% 32.6% 11.1% 11.4% dwelling Piped water on community stand: distance greater than 200m. from 10.7% 12.6% 13.2% 7.5% 6.7% dwell Borehole/rain-water tank/well 6.3% 7.6% 1.7% 8.9% 10.3% Dam/river/stream/spring 21.0% 8.8% 3.3% 37.7% 57.4% Water-carrier/tanker/Water 0.8% 0.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% vendor Other/Unspecified/Dummy 1.2% 0.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9%
A1.9 Type of Dwelling (2010)
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Number iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality House or brick structure on a 50,975 15,327 23,371 7,653 4,624 separate stand or yard Traditional dwelling/hut/structure 43,419 8,716 4,903 14,839 14,960 made of traditional materials Flat in a block of flats 6,810 1,980 3,696 677 456 Town/cluster/semi-detached 1,425 179 920 201 125 house (simplex, duplex or triplex) House/flat/room, in backyard 2,631 1,221 747 504 160 Informal dwelling/shack, in 2,546 499 1,602 99 346 backyard Informal dwelling/shack, NOT in backyard, e.g. in an 12,404 5,348 5,863 907 287 informal/squatter settlement Room/flatlet not in backyard but 2,735 1,710 595 174 257 on a shared property Other/unspecified/NA 11,331 1,505 5,077 4,488 261 Total 50,975 15,327 23,371 7,653 4,624
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality House or brick structure on a 37.96% 42.01% 49.97% 25.90% 21.53% separate stand or yard Traditional dwelling/hut/structure 32.34% 23.89% 10.48% 50.23% 69.66% made of traditional materials Flat in a block of flats 5.07% 5.43% 7.90% 2.29% 2.13% Town/cluster/semi-detached 1.06% 0.49% 1.97% 0.68% 0.58% house (simplex, duplex or triplex) House/flat/room, in backyard 1.96% 3.35% 1.60% 1.71% 0.74% Informal dwelling/shack, in 1.90% 1.37% 3.43% 0.34% 1.61% backyard Informal dwelling/shack, NOT in 9.24% 14.66% 12.53% 3.07% 1.33% backyard, e.g. in an
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informal/squatter settlement Room/flatlet not in backyard but 2.04% 4.69% 1.27% 0.59% 1.20% on a shared property Other/unspecified/NA 8.44% 4.12% 10.85% 15.19% 1.22%
A1.10 Education Level (2010)
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Number iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality 79,311 14,329 18,678 24,127 22,177 Grade 0/No schooling Grade 1/Sub A 22,556 4,956 6,165 6,299 5,136 25,281 5,872 6,148 7,208 6,053 Grade 2/Sub B Grade 3/Standard 1 22,689 4,113 5,797 7,385 5,394 24,381 5,278 7,422 6,854 4,827 Grade 4/Standard 2 27,979 6,356 7,451 8,378 5,794 Grade 5/Standard 3 26,553 5,766 8,060 7,347 5,380 Grade 6/Standard 4 31,877 6,480 11,431 7,180 6,786 Grade 7/Standard 5 34,840 8,854 10,336 8,704 6,946 Grade 8/Standard 6/Form 1 37,352 9,299 10,936 10,516 6,601 Grade 9/Standard 7/Form 2 Grade 10/Standard 8/Form 37,083 10,120 12,552 9,015 5,396 3/NTC1 Grade 11/Standard 9/Form 51,475 16,335 12,813 13,923 8,403 4/NTC11 Grade 12/Standard 10/Form 51,319 15,192 21,022 7,975 7,131 5/Matric/NTC111 Less than matric & certif/dip 6,160 1,112 3,059 1,360 628 3,171 655 1,328 641 548 Certificate with Grade 12 Diploma with Grade 12 5,779 783 3,572 821 602 3,184 257 2,223 507 197 Bachelor's Degree Bachelor's Degree and Diploma 1,860 377 829 241 413 978 287 408 202 82 Honours degree Higher Degree (Master's, 698 73 387 100 139 Doctorate) 68,289 15,078 21,366 15,786 16,058 Other/Unspecified/NA 562,814 131,571 171,984 144,568 114,692 Total
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Grade 0/No schooling 14.092% 10.9% 10.9% 16.7% 19.3% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 4.4% 4.5% Grade 1/Sub A Grade 2/Sub B 4.5% 4.5% 3.6% 5.0% 5.3% 4.0% 3.1% 3.4% 5.1% 4.7% Grade 3/Standard 1 Grade 4/Standard 2 4.3% 4.0% 4.3% 4.7% 4.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.3% 5.8% 5.1% Grade 5/Standard 3
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Number iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality 4.7% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.7% Grade 6/Standard 4 5.7% 4.9% 6.6% 5.0% 5.9% Grade 7/Standard 5 6.2% 6.7% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% Grade 8/Standard 6/Form 1 6.6% 7.1% 6.4% 7.3% 5.8% Grade 9/Standard 7/Form 2 Grade 10/Standard 8/Form 6.6% 7.7% 7.3% 6.2% 4.7% 3/NTC1 Grade 11/Standard 9/Form 9.1% 12.4% 7.5% 9.6% 7.3% 4/NTC11 Grade 12/Standard 10/Form 9.1% 11.5% 12.2% 5.5% 6.2% 5/Matric/NTC111 Less than matric & certif/dip 1.1% 0.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% Certificate with Grade 12 Diploma with Grade 12 1.0% 0.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% Bachelor's Degree Bachelor's Degree and Diploma 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Honours degree Higher Degree (Master's, 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Doctorate) 12.1% 11.5% 12.4% 10.9% 14.0% Other/Unspecified/NA
A1.11 Employment and Unemployment
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Number iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Population - Working age (16 - 348 508 86 405 113 734 87 218 61 151 65 years old) Employed - Formal and 100 455 27 886 47 821 17 001 7 747 informal Unemployed 27 202 9 102 8 029 7 641 2 430 Not economically active 220 851 49 417 57 884 62 576 50 974
A1.12 Employment by type and skill level
Maphumulo Mandeni Local KwaDukuza Local Ndwedwe Local Number iLembe Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Employed - Formal and 100455 27886 47821 17001 7747 informal Employed - Formal 77158 21189 36276 13181 6512 Employed - Formal - Highly 11834 3248 4966 2051 1569 skilled Employed - Formal - Skilled 30088 9481 13538 4500 2569 Employed - Formal - Semi- 35236 8460 17772 6630 2374 and unskilled Employed Informal 23297 6697 11545 3820 1235
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Maphumulo Mandeni Local KwaDukuza Local Ndwedwe Local Number iLembe Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Percentage Contribution Municipality Municipality Municipality Formally Employed 77% 76% 76% 78% 84% Informally Employed 23% 24% 24% 22% 16%
KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Percentage Contribution Municipality Municipality Municipality Highly Skilled 15% 15% 14% 16% 24% Skilled 39% 45% 37% 34% 39% Semi and Unskilled 46% 40% 49% 50% 36%
A1.13 Employment by Industry
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Number iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10 207 1 072 5 155 3 585 395 Mining and quarrying 636 301 237 83 14 Manufacturing 16 542 7 490 7 164 1 581 306 Electricity, gas and water 109 9 40 55 6 Construction 6 355 610 3 788 1 732 226 Wholesale and retail trade, 21 573 7 160 10 891 3 122 399 catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 3 186 797 1 211 470 708 communication Finance, insurance, real estate 13 336 6 349 5 419 1 021 547 and business services Community, social and personal 16 730 2 529 9 378 2 420 2 402 services General government 11 782 1 570 4 538 2 931 2 742 Total 100 455 27 887 47 822 17 001 7 746
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10.2% 3.8% 10.8% 21.1% 5.1% Mining and quarrying 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% Manufacturing 16.5% 26.9% 15.0% 9.3% 4.0% Electricity, gas and water 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Construction 6.3% 2.2% 7.9% 10.2% 2.9% Wholesale and retail trade, 21.5% 25.7% 22.8% 18.4% 5.2% catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 3.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.8% 9.1% communication
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Number iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10 207 1 072 5 155 3 585 395 Mining and quarrying 636 301 237 83 14 Manufacturing 16 542 7 490 7 164 1 581 306 Electricity, gas and water 109 9 40 55 6 Construction 6 355 610 3 788 1 732 226 Wholesale and retail trade, 21 573 7 160 10 891 3 122 399 catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 3 186 797 1 211 470 708 communication Finance, insurance, real estate 13 336 6 349 5 419 1 021 547 and business services Community, social and personal 16 730 2 529 9 378 2 420 2 402 services General government 11 782 1 570 4 538 2 931 2 742 Total 100 455 27 887 47 822 17 001 7 746
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Finance, insurance, real estate 13.3% 22.8% 11.3% 6.0% 7.1% and business services Community, social and personal 16.7% 9.1% 19.6% 14.2% 31.0% services General government 11.7% 5.6% 9.5% 17.2% 35.4%
A1.14 Gross Geographic Product by Industry
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Rand Millions iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 18 752 1 590 196 813 519 Mining and quarrying 8 959 289 122 122 39 Manufacturing 76 246 3 671 1 414 1 804 375 Electricity, gas and water 12 590 199 17 77 93 Construction 17 651 627 64 360 183 Wholesale and retail trade, 66 749 2 697 864 1 417 368 catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 51 487 1 107 249 459 152 communication Finance, insurance, real estate 77 060 3 090 1 377 1 381 225 and business services Community, social and personal 29 883 998 140 526 139 services General government 60 084 1 745 207 794 385 Total 419 462 16 011 4 650 7 753 2 477
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 4.5% 9.9% 4.2% 10.5% 21.0% Mining and quarrying 2.1% 1.8% 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% Manufacturing 18.2% 22.9% 30.4% 23.3% 15.1% Electricity, gas and water 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 3.7% Construction 4.2% 3.9% 1.4% 4.6% 7.4% Wholesale and retail trade, 15.9% 16.8% 18.6% 18.3% 14.9% catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 12.3% 6.9% 5.4% 5.9% 6.1% communication Finance, insurance, real estate 18.4% 19.3% 29.6% 17.8% 9.1% and business services Community, social and personal 7.1% 6.2% 3.0% 6.8% 5.6% services General government 14.3% 10.9% 4.4% 10.2% 15.5%
A1.16 Expenditure by Category
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Rand Millions (2nd Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local iLembe Local Local quarter) Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Durable Goods 937 294 384 150 109 Semi-Durable 1 088 384 404 152 147 Goods Non-Durable 4 948 1 646 1 905 882 515 Goods Services 4 878 1 544 2 370 545 419 11 851 3 869 5 064 1 729 1 189 Total
KwaDukuza Maphumulo Percentage Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local iLembe Local Local Contribution Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Durable Goods 7.9% 7.6% 7.6% 8.7% 9.2% Semi-Durable 9.2% 9.9% 8.0% 8.8% 12.4% Goods Non-Durable 41.8% 42.6% 37.6% 51.0% 43.3% Goods Services 41.2% 39.9% 46.8% 31.5% 35.2%
A1.17 Expenditure by sub-category
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Rand Millions (2nd quarter) iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Furniture, household 183 61 68 30 24 Durable appliances, etc Goods Personal transport 533 162 207 99 65 equipment
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Rand Millions (2nd quarter) iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Recreational and 132 42 70 10 11 entertainment goods Other durable goods 88 29 39 12 9 Clothing and footwear 642 239 220 87 96 Household textiles, 166 57 59 27 23 furnishings, glassware, etc Semi- Motor car tyres, parts and 165 52 64 29 19 Durable accessories Recreational and 75 22 40 8 6 entertainment goods Miscellaneous goods 40 14 22 2 3 Food, beverages and 3 149 1 046 1 232 559 313 tobacco Household fuel and power 542 210 153 108 71 Household consumer goods 488 174 194 68 52 Non- Durable Medical and pharmaceutical 171 43 92 22 14 products Petroleum products 485 142 175 111 57 Recreational and 113 32 59 13 8 entertainment goods Rent 1 250 371 688 126 66 Household services, 303 100 133 42 27 including domestic servants Medical services 767 252 367 79 70 Services Transport and 1 018 325 503 99 91 communication services Recreational, entertainment and 551 190 231 67 63 educational services Miscellaneous services 990 307 449 132 102
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwed we Maphumulo Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Furniture, household appliances, etc 1.54% 1.57% 1.34% 1.74% 2.05% Personal transport 4.50% 4.19% 4.10% 5.72% 5.48% Durable equipment Goods Recreational and 1.11% 1.09% 1.38% 0.56% 0.88% entertainment goods 0.74% 0.74% 0.76% 0.68% 0.75% Other durable goods 5.42% 6.17% 4.34% 5.03% 8.11% Clothing and footwear Household textiles, 1.40% 1.47% 1.16% 1.55% 1.97% Semi- furnishings, glassware, etc Motor car tyres, parts and Durable 1.39% 1.36% 1.27% 1.66% 1.61% accessories Recreational and entertainment goods 0.64% 0.58% 0.78% 0.44% 0.49%
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Rand Millions (2nd quarter) iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Miscellaneous goods 0.34% 0.36% 0.43% 0.11% 0.22% Food, beverages and 26.57% 27.03% 24.33% 32.33% 26.28% tobacco Household fuel and power 4.57% 5.42% 3.03% 6.24% 5.99% 4.12% 4.50% 3.83% 3.93% 4.40% Non- Household consumer goods Durable Medical and pharmaceutical products 1.45% 1.11% 1.83% 1.29% 1.14% 4.09% 3.67% 3.45% 6.43% 4.78% Petroleum products Recreational and entertainment goods 0.95% 0.83% 1.17% 0.78% 0.67% 10.55% 9.59% 13.58% 7.27% 5.55% Rent Household services, 2.55% 2.58% 2.63% 2.45% 2.29% including domestic servants 6.47% 6.51% 7.24% 4.54% 5.85% Medical services Transport and Services 8.59% 8.40% 9.94% 5.72% 7.63% communication services Recreational, entertainment and 4.65% 4.91% 4.55% 3.85% 5.33% educational services 8.35% 7.93% 8.87% 7.66% 8.54% Miscellaneous services
A1.18 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type
KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local Rand Millions iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Total 3 006 884 1 389 479 253 Buildings and construction works 1 168 277 522 238 130 Machinery and other equipment 1 451 490 699 187 75 Transport equipment 345 91 156 51 47 Transfer costs 42 26 12 3 1
KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Buildings and 38.8% 31.4% 37.6% 49.7% 51.3% construction works Machinery and other 48.3% 55.4% 50.3% 39.0% 29.6% equipment Transport equipment 11.5% 10.3% 11.2% 10.6% 18.7% Transfer costs 1.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5%
A1.19 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Rand Millions iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 284 35 145 93 11 Mining and quarrying 63 27 26 8 1 Manufacturing 872 362 424 71 16 Electricity, gas and water 179 15 68 86 11 Construction 49 5 28 14 2 Wholesale and retail trade, 231 73 123 31 4 catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 494 111 205 68 111 communication Finance, insurance, real estate 470 213 208 34 16 and business services Community, social and personal 62 7 26 8 21 services General government 300 36 137 66 62 Total 3 005.8 884.0 1 389.4 478.9 253.5
Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.4% 4.0% 10.4% 19.4% 4.4% Mining and quarrying 2.1% 3.1% 1.9% 1.7% 0.5% Manufacturing 29.0% 40.9% 30.5% 14.8% 6.2% Electricity, gas and water 6.0% 1.7% 4.9% 17.9% 4.3% Construction 1.6% 0.6% 2.0% 3.0% 0.6% Wholesale and retail trade, 7.7% 8.3% 8.8% 6.6% 1.6% catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 16.5% 12.6% 14.7% 14.2% 43.6% communication Finance, insurance, real estate 15.6% 24.1% 15.0% 7.1% 6.2% and business services Community, social and personal 2.1% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 8.2% services General government 10.0% 4.0% 9.8% 13.8% 24.4%
A1.20 Building Plans KwaDukuza
Approvals Submissions Completions Total Area Total est. Total Area Total est. Total Area Total est. no of (m2) value no of (m2) value no of (m2) value plans plans plans January 2010 90 12078 93842500 55 13635 2207795000 46 19495 129497900 February 2010 96 46786 321615230 70 4385 22670000 25 19352 128306875 March 2010 89 16707 116731000 95 18866 115951500 16 4789 26816500 April 2010 112 18266 124816500 84 9813 118196500 29 16291 108908500 May 2010 89 15242 114903500 128 123474 183075000 40 510775 60990200
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
June 2010 86 12693 104840000 113 14821 102759000 40 14894 61089900 July 2010 117 16673 125744050 114 19639 133149600 21 11944 93582500 August 2010 87 18745 146161800 95 35703 222819239 28 12674 78991500 September 161 31303 251041000 101 33291 268594000 21 6970 35691900 2010 October 2010 74 6686 56310700 65 11256 21696590 28 5064 40151500 November 67 13126 93724300 130 18992 109294200 20 5005 33298300 2010 December 48 3984 29435700 57 12631 96012600 46 14209 87521400 2010 January 2011 98 34696 226678500 57 7158 57607700 20 6012 36864000 February 2011 59 10,730 20,321,627 48 12,274 88,310,500 29 10,132 53,595,200 March 2011 83 10,115 80,806,900 79 21,325 201,871,400 37 11,855 70,215,327 April 2011 70 11,278 92,231,400 59 10,654 85,104,700 37 10,895 72,623,600 May 2011 53 7,972 70,088,600 58 19,881 149,547,200 24 8,267 56,281,000 June 2011 50 48,530 347,642,100 106 36,649 292,644,800 26 41,263 293,105,300 August 2011 100 4 752 216 431 300 55 19 125 152 784 600 27 8 068 58 919 800 76 20 557 127 061 800 74 13 627 115 416 700 30 8 537 57 643 000 October 2011 November 47 13 149 121 166 400 88 26 829 267 061 800 28 11 975 81 425 564 2011 December 33 24 222 173 981 000 65 10 306 81 800 200 27 12 627 77 714 200 2011 January 2012 67 12228 93557700 39 6317 45497100 10 3598 27113200
February 2012 52 8463 72289600 66 12513 93405400 39 13688 105407100
March 2012 93 16188 127968700 76 20805 142623677 25 12368 98389100 April 2012 94 6 661 52 460 700 53 34 727 187 200 800 15 5 157 19 641 200
May 2012 51 18 493 172 877 800 74 14 002 100 441 954 25 7 730 64 637 103
June 2012 85 41 115 270 773 246 103 21 094 183 931 000 28 10 482 29 374 900
A1.21 New Service Connections KwaDukuza
Single Three Phase Maximum Total Electricity Total Water Phase Demand Connections Connections
Jan-March (Q1) 2010 56 21 3 80 160 April-June (Q2) 2010 86 30 4 120 340 July-Sept (Q3) 2010 72 19 2 93 144 Oct-Dec (Q4) 2010 223 16 1 240 142 Jan-March (Q1) 2011 519 10 1 530 207 April-June (Q2) 2011 605 14 2 621 180 July 2011 277 5 1 283
August 2011 33 10 0 43
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
September 2011 17 11 1 29 81 October 2011 29 2 0 31 17 November 2011 11 10 1 22 44 December 2011 11 2 2 15 26 January 2012 8 2 0 10 48 February 2012 222 1 0 223 33 March 2012 495 5 0 500 46 April 2012 39 2 0 41 35 May 2012 14 5 0 19 30 June 2012 232 8 0 240 48
A1.22 Airport Passenger Movements
King Shaka OR Tambo Cape Town Richards Bay International International International Jan-10 340,474 1,379,351 652,777 8,045 Feb-10 333,138 1,294,225 641,521 8,093 Mar-10 408,244 1,541,563 763,347 8,122 Apr-10 398,248 1,471,710 671,799 8,177 May-10 385,712 1,415,752 596,701 8,195 Jun-10 390,958 1,606,304 634,907 8,219 Jul-10 396,342 1,571,751 640,722 8,236 Aug-10 405,934 1,606,086 636,716 8,249 Sep-10 414,797 1,605,985 678,168 8,269 Oct-10 429,150 1,680,079 713,713 8,288 Nov-10 406,454 1,540,792 714,598 8,299 Dec-10 410,535 1,600,939 676,783 8,357 Jan-11 397,781 1,507,654 689,035 5,273 Feb-11 376,166 1,373,190 687,458 6,371 Mar-11 423,680 1,665,879 773,929 7,203 Apr-11 422,985 1,590,663 708,336 May-11 405,906 1,516,484 615,991 403 318 1 449 627 74 353 7 429 Jun-11 449 259 1 651 390 675 602 7 406 Jul-11 415 435 1 614 289 651 619 7 455 Aug-11 419 924 1 633 639 690 890 Sep-11 436 447 1 719 212 754 177 Oct-11 Nov-11 420 581 1 570 063 757 303 Dec-11 466 749 1 702 244 813 866 Jan-12 389 108 1 514 082 743 912 Feb-12 388 380 1 436 322 738 675 Mar-12 422 002 1 605 986 808 104
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
407 655 1 579 605 742 647 Apr-12 May-12 386 178 1 460 882 634 812
A1.23 Port Movements
Richards Bay Durban
Total Cargo Total Gross Tonnage Total Cargo Gross Tonnage Total Number Handled (metric Number of of Vessels Handled (metric of Vessels of Vessels tonnes, millions) Vessels (millions) tonnes, millions) (millions)
Jan-10 8,359 154 5,182 5,491 154 5,182 Feb-10 5,600 146 4,842 7,040 146 4,842 Mar-10 7,301 163 5,167 5,658 330 9,527 Apr-10 5,336 163 5,217 5,419 356 9,866 May-10 6,601 5,380 372 9,665 Jun-10 5,877 6,803 432 11,825 Jul-10 7,000 162 5,628 6,264 438 11,321 Aug-10 7,321 161 5,180 7,747 414 10,950 Sep-10 6,524 166 5,810 5,930 456 11,978 Oct-10 9,556 176 6,670 6,340 376 9,671 Nov-10 8,484 162 5,341 8,483 369 10,146 Dec-10 7,506 158 5,412 5,574 363 10,238 Jan-11 6,377 136 4,878 6,377 348 10,504 Feb-11 7,321 172 5,611 7,321 368 11,274 Mar-11 7,031, 146 5,219 5,772 341 10,044 Apr-11 6,817, 162 5,108 5,868 359 10,559 May-11 6,020 127 4,140 6,510 375 10,981 Jun-11 5,773 157 5,216 7,538 374 11,039 Jul-11 6,680 140 4,639 6,830 350 10,140 Aug-11 8,743 164 6,513 7,525 360 10,692 Sep-11 6,513 147 5,214 6,875 382 10,620 Oct-11 8 977 157 6 288 7 734 323 9 229 Nov-11 8 210 146 5 775 7 253 355 10 775 Dec-11 8 306 146 6 011 5 812 338 9 762 Jan 2012 8 418 141 5 641 4 988 315 10 254 Feb 2012 7 874 158 6 383 5 191 327 10 487 March 2012 6 931 137 5 033 5 981 299 9 155 April 2012 7.589 148 5.580 6.576 310 9.396 May 2012 7.580 136 5.111 7.741 342 9.998 June 2012 6.265 124 5.003 7.811 369 11.372
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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2012
REPORT COMPILED FOR:
Enterprise iLembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: 032 – 946 1256 Fax: 032 – 946 3515
REPORT COMPILED BY:
Urban-Econ Development Economists 37 Hunt Road, Glenwood Durban, 4001 Tel: 031 – 202 9673 Fax: 031 – 202 9675 Email: [email protected]